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AL Notes: Astros, Sabathia, Rays, Odorizzi, Orioles

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Yankees hitters looked helpless against Astros pitchers Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series on Saturday, and part of the credit for that goes to Houston’s reliance on analytics, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic explains (subscription required and recommended). New York’s fastball-hitting offense had its way at times during a three-game home romp over Houston in the middle of the series, prompting the Astros’ analytics department to suggest the team’s pitchers throw more breaking balls. Morton and McCullers did just that in a 4-0 victory on Saturday, combining for 62 curveballs on 108 pitches. Incredibly, McCullers finished the game with 24 curves in a row to cap off four dominant innings. Afterward, pitching coach Brent Strom told Rosenthal: “I’ve got to hand this to our analytics people. “They said, ’Listen, this is where we’re making our mistakes. We need to throw as many curveballs as possible. This is a good fastball-hitting team.'”

  • Left-hander CC Sabathia, the losing pitcher in Game 7 of the ALCS, made it clear to reporters on Saturday that his preference is to continue with the Yankees – not depart in free agency – per Brendan Kuty of NJ.com. “This is where I want to play,” said the 37-year-old Sabathia, who has revived his career over the past couple seasons and is fresh off a four-start playoff run in which he pitched to a 2.37 ERA across 19 innings. The 2017 season was the ninth with the Yankees for Sabathia, who just wrapped up the five-year, $142MM extension he signed in 2011.
  • The Rays should be open to trading right-hander Jake Odorizzi, closer Alex Colome, outfielder/designated hitter Corey Dickerson and second baseman Brad Miller during the offseason, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times opines. All four players will go through arbitration in the winter, with Odorizzi projected to end up with the highest salary ($6.5MM). He’s also the player the Rays are most likely to trade, according to Topkin. Odorizzi, 27, is coming off a down season, but his impressive track record and two remaining years of affordable team control could lead to plenty of interest from starter-needy clubs.
  • Adding more left-handed hitters to balance out a righty-heavy lineup will be one of the Orioles’ most important offseason challenges, Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun writes. The O’s projected lineup for 2018 includes just two lefty-swingers, first baseman Chris Davis and catcher Chance Sisco. Another could come in the form of an outfielder, suggests Encina, who names Carlos Gonzalez, Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson as a few of several potential targets in free agency.

Yankees Notes: Girardi, Holliday, Frazier

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Yankees manager Joe Girardi is entering the offseason without a contract, but it appears he’ll continue in his current post. After the Yankees’ season-ending loss to the Astros in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series on Saturday, Girardi “left no question” that he wants to return, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. The Yankees, for their part, would like Girardi back, Nightengale adds. This year was the Yankees’ 10th under Girardi, who has helped them to six playoff berths – including a World Series championship in 2009 – and a 910-710 regular-season record.

More on New York:

  • Although designated hitter Matt Holliday endured a disappointing season, he told Scott Miller of Bleacher Report on Saturday that he intends to play in 2018 (Twitter link). Set to turn 38 in January, Holliday will be a free agent for the second straight offseason, though his next contract surely won’t approach the guaranteed $13MM the Yankees gave him last winter. The highly respected veteran appeared in just one of the Yankees’ 13 playoff games after ending the regular season on a second-half cold streak. Holliday was an effective cog in the Bombers’ offense until a viral infection forced him the disabled list in late June, and he never returned to form after that (he also missed most of August with a back injury). All told, Holliday hit .231/.316/.432 line with 19 home runs and a .201 ISO in 427 plate appearances.
  • Third baseman Todd Frazier, another of the Yankees’ impending free agents, told reporters after Saturday’s game that he “would love to be back” with the club in 2018, adding that he has “never been more excited to play the game of baseball than in a Yankee uniform with these guys” (via Steve Politi of NJ.com). The boisterous Frazier, 31, performed well with the Yankees after they acquired him from the White Sox in July, but the New Jersey native’s desire for a multiyear deal could bring an end to his Bombers tenure, Politi writes. The Yankees already have another starting-caliber third baseman on hand in Chase Headley, who has a year left on his contract, with touted prospects in Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar waiting in the wings. It’s also worth noting that superstar third basemen Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson are scheduled to hit free agency a year from now.

AL East Notes: Rays, Jones, Tanaka

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In a fascinating article about the potential of a new Rays ballpark in Tampa Bay, Steve Contorno of the Tampa Bay Times gives insight into property trading as a method for acquiring land on which to build a new stadium. The mechanism is fairly simple at its core; Hillsborough County would trade parcels of valuable government-owned land near the downtown area to private property owners in exchange for their land in the Channel District-Ybor City area, where the county would like to build a new stadium. County Attorney Chip Fletcher confirmed with the Tampa Bay Times that the county is looking into these trades as a way to lower the cost of acquiring new property for a ballpark. Contorno’s piece offers a deep look into all the factors the county must consider when deciding whether this method truly makes sense from a business perspective. Rays fans (and Tampa Bay taxpayers) might enjoy learning about the complexities of the situation Hillsborough County faces.

More from around the American League’s Eastern Division…

  • While much has been made of stud third baseman Manny Machado’s potential exit from the Orioles after 2018, Rich Dubroff of PressBoxOnline.com examines the situation of another O’s icon in his final year; center fielder Adam Jones. Jones has manned center for ten consecutive years in Baltimore, thanks to a six-year, $85.5MM extension that made Dan Duquette’s front office look brilliant. Because Jones is a leader in the clubhouse and current franchise icon, Dubroff places a heavy weight on the decision Baltimore faces in whether or not to retain him. Jones has been worth 28.8 fWAR as a member of the Orioles’ organization, compiling 248 home runs and 802 RBI across 6,221 plate appearances while posting a .279/.319/.468 slash line, good for 109 wRC+. As of right now, the only guarantees the Orioles have on the books beyond 2018 are those of Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo and Darren O’Day, the latter two of whom become free agents after the 2019 season.
  • Is Masahiro Tanaka pitching his way off the Yankees roster? That’s the question Joel Sherman of the New York Post asked on Friday. Within three days of the conclusion of the World Series, Tanaka can choose to opt out of the final three years and $67MM on his contract. The former Japanese star is strengthening his value with each of his elite postseason starts so far in 2017, but his case for a larger contract goes beyond the postseason alone. While Sherman opines that Tanaka was expected not to opt out before October, that notion seems to entirely ignore the right-hander’s elite second half. After the All-Star break, Tanaka posted a 3.77 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP, with a wicked 10.73 K/9 and 1.65 BB/9. Strong peripheral stats, such as a 2.83 xFIP, point to Tanaka being one of the AL’s best starters during that span. Questions remain about the health of his elbow and his ability to keep the ball in the park, but as things stand right now, it seems likely that Tanaka could earn more than $67MM if he were to opt out and test the open market.

Agency Changes: Chad Green, Dinelson Lamet

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As always, we track agency changes here at MLBTR in our Agency Database. Here are the latest notable changes in player representation, both courtesy of ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter links):

  • Yankees righty Chad Green is moving his business to Frontline, per the report, joining a pitching-heavy client list led by Dallas Keuchel and Andrew Miller. Though he showed promise with intriguing strikeout and walk numbers in 2016, Green’s 2017 campaign came as an eye opener. In 69 frames over 40 appearances, he punched out 13.4 batters per nine while walking just 2.2 and carrying a sterling 1.83 ERA. Green sat at about 96 mph with his average heater and racked up a strong 15.0% swinging-strike rate.
  • Meanwhile, intriguing young Padres righty Dinelson Lamet has hired Magnus Sports, an agency known for its long list of clients from Latin America. Among the outfit’s most recognizable players is a trio of notable Yankees (Aroldis Chapman, Gary Sanchez, and Starlin Castro). Lamet exhibited some walk and home run difficulties in his debut season, but also racked up 10.9 K/9 and produced a 4.57 ERA in 114 1/3 innings. If he can build upon that opening work, Lamet could become a key part of a hopeful new rotation core in San Diego.

East Notes: Denbo, Hicks/Ellsbury, Vlad Jr., Red Sox

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Tim Healey of the Sun-Sentinel takes a look at Derek Jeter’s first hire in Miami: former Yankees executive Gary Denbo. The Marlins’ new player development and scouting guru is known for working hard to make something out of all of the players in farm system. His attention to detail and willingness to grind could pay dividends for a club that will need to grow quite a lot of talent to make up for what is initially projected to be quite a low payroll.

Here’s more from the eastern divisions:

  • Of course, sometimes finding value in players that didn’t quite pan out for other organizations can deliver huge dividends. That has been the case for the Yankees and Aaron Hicks, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. Indeed, he seems now to have displaced Jacoby Ellsbury in center — so much so that Sherman expects the Yanks to “tell teams in the offseason to make their best offer on the veteran.” The article goes on to discuss what kind of trade situations might make sense for Ellsbury, who does have quite a bit of salary left to go as well as no-trade protection.
  • Top Blue Jays prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is tackling some goals and having fun at the Dominican winter league, as Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca writes. In particular, the young phenom has been tasked with expanding his range and improving his footwork at the hot corner. It seems that Toronto is interested, too, in exposing Guerrero to the bright lights and relatively high stakes of playing against strong competition in his home nation.
  • After interviewing Ron Gardenhire today, the Red Sox are “still deciding” whether to sit down with any other candidates, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski informs Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald (via Twitter). Alex Cora and Brad Ausmus are the other two names under consideration at present. You can catch up on prior developments in the search right here.

AL East Notes: Sox Payroll, Chili, Yanks’ Rotation, McKinney, O’s

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Whatever the Red Sox may prefer, the odds are that the organization will again go over the luxury tax line in 2018, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe explains. Indeed, with a hefty arbitration class set to land on top of an already robust set of guaranteed contracts, the team will enter the offseason without much hope of improving unless it’s willing to exceed the $197MM luxury tax line. Of course, the club reset its luxury tax status by staying under the 2017 mark, which reduces the penalty for going back over (but would also begin a new climb upward in the escalating tax scheme).

Here’s more from the AL East:

  • As the Red Sox continue looking into candidates for the team’s open managerial position, the team is allowing its coaches to look into their own alternatives. Well-regarded hitting coach Chili Davis is set to visit with the Padres, per Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston (Twitter links). San Diego parted ways with hitting coach Alan Zinter, leaving the club looking at alternatives. Of course, it’s still also possible that a new Boston manager would prefer to keep Davis or certain other members of the staff, but the staff is now free to make its own decisions at this stage.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post posits a scenario in which the Yankees can obtain quite a strong rotation next year without any massive new investments. Of course, doing so would depend not only upon achieving some notable strokes of good market luck but also upon the organization getting the best versions of some pitchers that have had their ups and downs. Most interestingly, Sherman says the “general sense” is that Masahiro Tanaka will not opt out of the three years and $67MM left on his deal. While that’s hardly cheap and still carries obvious risk, it seems like an appealing price tag for a pitcher of his pedigree, given his late-season rebound. Sherman’s most optimistic version of a 2018 staff also includes Shohei Otani, whose destination is anyone’s guess at this stage. All things considered, though, the Yanks’ roation situation does seem much better than might have been anticipated entering the year, due largely to the surge of Luis Severino and emergence of Jordan Montgomery.
  • Meanwhile, the Yankees are trying prospect Billy McKinney out at first base in the Arizona Fall League, Bill Mitchell writes for Baseball America, though he’ll also continue primarily to be an outfielder. As Mitchell notes, McKinney showed better than ever after finally reaching the Triple-A level midway through the 2017 season. The 23-year-old slashed .306/.336/.541 with ten home runs in his 224 plate appearances there, though he also walked just four percent of the time (well below his usual rate) and carried a .353 batting average on balls in play that likely reflects both good contact and some fortune. It’ll be interesting to see when and how McKinney is utilized at the MLB level, but he could factor into the team’s depth considerations for the season to come or potentially be dangled as a trade candidate.
  • Though the Orioles will obviously need to bring in some new players if they hope for a return to contention, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports writes that the team also must receive improvements from within if it hopes to compete. Consistent production from key players was elusive in 2017, which failed to create a base of output sufficient to maintain a winning record. Even with expectations of some bounceback performances, though, the roster will surely be in need of supplementation; MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently broke down the possibilities.

East Notes: Yankees, Sox, Nats, Orioles

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With the Yankees intent on getting under the $197MM luxury tax threshold in 2018, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wonders if they’ll shop relievers Dellin Betances and Adam Warren in the offseason. While the two, especially Betances, are high-end bullpen options, the Yankees may not want to spend the projected $7.5MM on the pair given that their relief corps would still be loaded without one or both. Aroldis Chapman, David Robertson, Chad Green and Tommy Kahnle will stick around next season, and all four of them are currently ahead of Betances and Warren in the Yankees’ late-game pecking order. Both Betances and Warren are likely to file for larger arbitration requests than their projected figures, Sherman notes, which could be especially interesting in the former’s case. After all, the relationship between Betances and the Yankees took a sour turn during the arbitration process last winter.

  • Landing a big bat, adding depth in their rotation and middle infield, and finding another setup man could be on the Red Sox’s offseason to-do list, Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald writes. Regarding Boston’s power-needy offense, which we touched on earlier today, Jennings lists impending free agents J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Jay Bruce as possible fits.
  • The Nationals’ playoff trip this year ended in more disappointment for the franchise, but manager Dusty Baker’s return still looks likely, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. The future of Baker, who doesn’t have a contract for next year, is one of the biggest offseason questions facing the Nationals, opines Janes. In terms of their roster, the Nats will have to make decisions on whether to re-sign impending free agent outfielder Jayson Werth, whether to upgrade behind the plate and in the rotation, and how to assemble their bench, Janes adds.
  • The Orioles’ coaches will see their contracts run out at the end of the month, but the team still hasn’t made a final decision on Buck Showalter’s staff for next season, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. If Showalter has his way, all of his assistants – including beleaguered pitching coach Roger McDowell – will return, per Kubatko. However, general manager Dan Duquette didn’t rule out changes when speaking to reporters on the final day of the season. “All those things with the coaches and the staffing, all those things need to be addressed, and I think you have to look carefully at them when you don’t have a strong year and see if there are some adjustments that you can make,” Duquette said.

East Notes: Girardi, Braves, Marlins, Mets/Nats Affiliate

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Currently in the last year of his contract, Yankees manager Joe Girardi has been noncommittal about his future in recent weeks. On the heels of a rough few days for Girardi, ESPN’s Buster Olney says he expects Girardi’s time as the Yankees’ skipper to conclude at season’s end (podcast link). Of course, things are beginning to look quite a bit different than they did after a baffling Girardi decision that likely cost them Game 2. Now, the ALDS is tied and the Yankees could well find themselves among the last four teams standing, depending upon the outcome of the decisive game in Cleveland. Regardless of how things play out from this point forward, the long-experienced skipper will surely land on his feet, though Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that some believe Girardi may be interested in some time away from the grind. Interestingly, the Mets have actually talked about Girardi as a possible successor to the ousted Terry Collins, but they “fully expect” him to stay in the Bronx, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets.

More from the eastern divisions:

  • Braves director of baseball operations Billy Ryan is a candidate to take over as their general manager, along with the previously reported trio of Royals GM Dayton Moore and Nationals assistants Doug Harris and Dan Jennings, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today. However, according to the Nationals, the Braves haven’t yet requested permission to interview anyone from their organization (Twitter links). Of course, no matter how the Atlanta organization proceeds, it has more questions to answer than who’ll take over for resigned GM John Coppolella. As David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes, some in the game anticipate the league will uncover broad malfeasance by the organization. There are quite a few remaining questions, writes O’Brien, for a club that now has to operate with care to get back on the right track.
  • While the Marlins are now formally transitioning to a new ownership group, there’s still some potential work to be done before Miami-Dade County and outgoing owner Jeffrey Loria go their separate ways. As Douglas Hanks of the Miami Herald reports, there could be a battle brewing relating to the publicly-financed ballpark deal that brought Marlins Park into existence. The local authorities have already lined up an auditor to review Loria’s group’s assessment of money owed to the government under the financing deal, which seemingly has some room for interpretation as to how much of the sale proceeds must be shared by the ownership group.
  • The Mets and Nationals will both undergo some changes at the highest level of their farm systems, as Mark Weiner of Syracuse.com writes. The New York organization has agreed to buy the Triple-A Syracuse Chiefs, which previously had an affiliate agreement with the Nats. It’s not clear at this point where the Washington organization will end up parking its Triple-A club in the future, though the change evidently will not take place until after the 2018 season.

Front Office/Managerial Notes: Marlins, Brewers, Tigers

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The latest front office and managerial updates from around the majors:

  • Yankees vice president of player development Gary Denbo is leaving the Bombers to become the Marlins’ director of player development and amateur scouting, George A. King III of the New York Post reports (on Twitter). Denbo will work under Michael Hill, who will stay on as the Marlins’ president of baseball operations, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald tweets. Since a group including former Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter agreed to purchase the Marlins in August, there had been plenty of speculation about Denbo heading to Miami. Denbo served in various capacities during multiple stretches with the Yankees dating back to the 1990s and even managed Jeter in the Gulf Coast League in 1992. The two still have a close relationship, paving the way for Denbo to reunite with Jeter in Miami. The Marlins haven’t requested permission to speak with anyone else from the Yankees’ front office, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter links).
  • The Brewers’ David Stearns-led front office has promoted Karl Mueller to vice president of player personnel, Matt Kleine to director of baseball operations and Scott Campbell to special assignment scout, according to a team announcement. Mueller, a 14-year veteran of Milwaukee’s baseball department, spent the past two seasons in Kleine’s new position. Kleine, who’s entering his 12th year with the Brewers, most recently served as their manager of baseball operations. Campbell, yet another longtime member of the organization (he’s entering his 13th year), was the Brewers’ assistant director of video scouting from 2015-17.
  • Royals catching instructor Pedro Grifol is an early candidate to become the Tigers’ next manager, Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweets. Grifol has served in that position since 2014. He also has experience as a major league hitting coach (Royals, 2013-14) and a minor league manager (with low-level Mariners affiliates from 2003-05 and in 2012)

Quick Hits: Phils, Tigers, Judge, Rockies, D-backs

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Rockies bench coach Mike Redmond is drawing interest from two manager-needy teams, the Phillies and Tigers, Jon Heyman of FanRag reports. Redmond isn’t far removed from managing the Marlins, who went 155-207 on his watch from 2013-15. The former big league catcher played with the Marlins from 1998-2004, giving him familiarity with Tigers general manager Al Avila. The executive was in Miami’s front office for a portion of Redmond’s tenure as a player there.

More from around baseball:

  • With the Indians and Yankees facing off in the American League Division Series, Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com flashes back five years to a decision that has impacted both franchises. The Indians signed former Yankees outfielder Nick Swisher to a four-year, $56MM deal in December 2012, a move that didn’t pan out for Cleveland but did help lead to the Aaron Judge era in the Bronx. By letting Swisher walk in free agency, the Yankees earned a compensatory draft pick in 2013, the 32nd selection, with which they chose Judge. Unsurprisingly, Cleveland passed on Judge at No. 5 in the first round (the Indians grabbed a different now-Yankees outfielder in Clint Frazier, whom the Tribe traded in a 2016 deal for reliever Andrew Miller), though one member of the club’s scouting department was particularly enamored of the hulking slugger. “One of our scouts liked him over [No. 1 overall pick Mark] Appel, which is crazy to think about,” Indians president Chris Antonetti told Castrovince. “It’s not necessarily how we had him on our board, but one of our scouts felt strongly about it. There were some questions about his size, but he also did a lot of things really well, and he was renowned for having a great makeup.”
  • There haven’t been any contract discussions between the Rockies and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez since spring training, according to Mark Kiszla of the Denver Post. The Rockies offered CarGo an extension back then, but he turned it down and proceeded to endure the worst season of his career. The 31-year-old impending free agent batted an uncharacteristically poor .262/.339/.423 in 534 plate appearances, but he did fare much better after the All-Star break (.314/.390/.531 in 207 PAs).
  • The Diamondbacks won 93 games during the regular season and broke a five-year playoff drought, leading Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic to highlight some of the good work done by their past decision-makers. While first-year GM Mike Hazen is responsible for the J.D. Martinez, Ketel Marte, Daniel Descalso, Jeff Mathis, Taijuan Walker and Fernando Rodney acquisitions, among others, predecessors Josh Byrnes, Jerry Dipoto, Kevin Towers and Dave Stewart each have a hand in the current on-field product in Arizona – something Hazen realizes. “There are contributions all over the place,” he told Piecoro. “They should be proud of that, I think. We all know in the game things happen. Changes get made. For whatever reason, they get made. But it still doesn’t change the fact that there was good done, too.”
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