AL East Notes: Yankees, Orioles, Red Sox
Later today, the Yankees will announce the hire of Phil Nevin as their third base coach, Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports reports. Nightengale also mentioned an additional fun fact: Nevin and new Yankees manager Aaron Boone were high school teammates. Nevin was a lifetime .270/.343/.472 hitter across 4,703 plate appearances spanning twelve major league seasons. The former number one overall draft pick played with seven different major league teams during his career, but spent most of his time with the Tigers and Padres. Nevin was considered to be a strong candidate for the Tigers’ managerial opening before the club selected Ron Gardenhire to be their next skipper. Instead, he’ll become the latest member of rookie manager Boone’s coaching staff.
Other items from around the American League’s Eastern division…
- Any path back to contention for the Orioles in 2018 must begin with a retooling of a rotation that posted baseball’s highest ERA, Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun opines. At present, Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy are the only locks in the rotation, and although the Orioles have been in the mix for some pitchers so far, they haven’t signed anyone yet. While it has already been mentioned that the Orioles were in on Tyler Chatwood before he signed with the Cubs, Encina reports that Baltimore was also in on Miles Mikolas, who ultimately ended up choosing the Cardinals. He quotes Dan Duquette saying that retooling the rotation this offseason will be a “bigger challenge” than in previous years, in part due to “significant demand” for pitchers in the free agent class. The Orioles’ rotation posted a 5.70 ERA in 2017.
- Despite the aforementioned need for rotation improvements, the Orioles did not make a presentation to Shohei Ohtani. Duquette’s reasoning (explained in a segment on MLB Network Radio) was that the Orioles “philosophically don’t participate on the posting part of it.” While the Orioles are known for not utilizing their international bonus pool money, one would think that Ohtani would have presented somewhat of an exception to Baltimore’s “philosophy,” particularly considering his upside and the fact that he’s now ranked as the number one prospect in all of baseball. Of course, Ohtani eliminated all east coast teams before he even scheduled any in-person meetings, so this is largely a moot point.
- Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald lists five ways the Red Sox can “get down to business” now that the offseason’s two biggest holdups (Giancarlo Stanton and Ohtani) have found their new destinations. While he details Boston’s obvious need for a power bat his more interesting suggestion is that the Sox ought to pony up for a utility man who can be a legitimate hitter. If the team can’t re-sign Eduardo Nunez, Mastrodonato postulates, they ought to turn to the trade market for such an asset.
NL East Notes: Marlins, Parè, Neshek, Phillies, Gio
As you might expect, the Marlins aimed high in their trade talks with the Yankees about Giancarlo Stanton. According to FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman (Twitter link), Miami initially asked New York about such top prospects as Chance Adams, Justus Sheffield, and Estevan Florial. Those demands weren’t met, however, and the Marlins had to settle for two lesser prospects (Jorge Guzman and Jose Devers) plus second baseman Starlin Castro in exchange for the big slugger. It wasn’t as if the Marlins had much leverage, of course, as the Yankees were one of the few teams Stanton was willing to waive his no-trade clause to join and Miami’s top priority was getting as much of Stanton’s enormous contract as possible off their books.
Some more rumblings from around the NL East…
- The Braves announced the hiring of Jason Parè as their assistant general manager, research and development. (The previously-reported hiring of Josh Tamin as the club’s director of Major League operations was also announced.) Parè spent the last two years as the Marlins’ senior director of analytics, and he previously worked with Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos in Toronto’s front office, where Parè worked as an analyst in 2014-15.
- The Phillies have had internal talks about signing Pat Neshek, NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury reports. Neshek was acquired by the Phils last winter in a trade with the Astros and then pitched superbly before being flipped to the Rockies for three prospects at trade deadline. Neshek enjoyed arguably the best of his 11 MLB seasons in 2017, posting a 1.59 ERA over 62 1/3 combined innings with Philadelphia and Colorado, recording 69 strikeouts against just six walks.
- The Phillies are reportedly open to the possibility of starting the season with a surplus of infielders, though Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer argues that the team is best served by trading at least one of their veteran players (i.e. Cesar Hernandez or Freddy Galvis) this winter and giving J.P. Crawford and Scott Kingery a clear path to regular playing time. Juggling those four players and Maikel Franco during the year leads to fewer at-bats for everyone and, Gelb notes, less opportunity for Hernandez or Galvis to improve their value for a midseason trade.
- Could the Nationals use Gio Gonzalez as a trade chip? MASNsports.com’s Pete Kerzel discusses the possibility, as the Nats could obtain some controllable talent by dealing the veteran as he enters the final year of his contract. Gonzalez is coming off one of the best of his six seasons in Washington (2.96 ERA, 2.38 K/BB rate, 8.42 K/9 over 201 innings), though advanced metrics were less impressed by his performance, so Kerzel believes the Nats could look for a trade while Gonzalez’s value is high.
AL East Notes: Blue Jays, Rebuilds, Longoria, Rays, Bard, Red Sox
The Blue Jays are planning to contend in 2018, though with the team facing a tough road back to the postseason, Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith looks at the broader question faced by the Jays and other clubs about deciding when a rebuild is necessary. Reaching the playoffs even once is a worthy goal, though mortgaging the future to do so won’t lead to a sustainable contender, which is what teams like the Cubs and Astros appear to be after writing off several seasons to totally remake their franchises. An even greater challenge is trying to rebuild while remaining competitive, which is what the Blue Jays seem to be trying. “I personally don’t feel that you should ever be in a rebuild mode, especially in this market and in this environment,” Jays GM Ross Atkins said. “There might be soft resets based on circumstance….But personally, I don’t buy into the strategy that we’re not going to be a good team for five and six years.”
Here’s more from around the AL East…
- Evan Longoria tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that the Rays have yet to speak to their longtime third baseman about their offseason plans. The Rays will certainly be moving some expensive veterans this winter, and if they shift into full-on rebuild mode, that could very well include a trade of Longoria, their highest-paid player and franchise cornerstone. “I think they have made it pretty clear that they want to cut salary, so I guess that leaves me somewhere in limbo,” Longoria said. “I think I’ve been pretty up front about wanting to be in Tampa (Bay) for my whole career, but I realize that my window is getting smaller to win a championship. If they decide to rebuild completely and give everyone up, then I suppose my family and I will adjust.”
- In another piece from Topkin, he ranks the Rays players most likely to be traded this offseason, perhaps as soon as this week’s Winter Meetings. Closer Alex Colome sits atop the list, followed by Jake Odorizzi and Longoria. Chris Archer is a “2A” candidate after Odorizzi, as Archer would be Tampa’s most valuable trade chip if the club did embark on a rebuild. Topkin writes that the Rays would demand “twice the return of Odorizzi” for Archer, and even more than the five-prospect package the team received from the Cubs in the 2011 Matt Garza trade.
- The Yankees will hire Josh Bard as their new bench coach, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported (Twitter link). The New York Post’s Ken Davidoff reported earlier today that Bard stood “a good chance of” being hired after an interview for the position last week. A former ten-year big league veteran, Bard’s post-playing career includes jobs as a scout and special assistant in the Dodgers organization and, for the last two seasons, the team’s bullpen coach. Bard and new Yankees manager Aaron Boone were briefly teammates with the 2005 Indians.
- Now that Giancarlo Stanton is a Yankee, Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald proposes a bold counter-move for the Red Sox — sign both J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer in free agency. This would come at a big financial cost for the Sox, of course, though Silverman argues that since the team will likely be over the luxury tax threshold anyway, the Red Sox will face a slightly lesser financial penalty now than they would in exceeding it next offseason with another year of overages on its record. Silverman believes Boston should strike now rather than hope for landing one of next winter’s big free agents, plus Martinez and Hosmer would help replace the clubhouse leadership gap left by the retired David Ortiz.
Cubs Among Teams Pursuing Alex Cobb
SUNDAY: Along with the Cubs, count the Rangers, Yankees, Blue Jays and Orioles among teams interested in Cobb, according to FanRag’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).
SATURDAY: The Cubs added right-hander Tyler Chatwood on a three-year, $38MM guarantee this week, but another sizable investment for their rotation could be on the way. With the Winter Meetings nearing, they’re making a “strong push” to sign free agent righty Alex Cobb, Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago reports. Their hope is to reach a deal with Cobb prior to Monday, which would enable them to turn their focus elsewhere during the meetings and prevent other suitors from aggressively pursuing the 30-year-old.
Cobb going to the North Side of Chicago has frequently come up as a possibility since last season ended, in part because of his connection to multiple members of the Cubs’ coaching staff. He played under manager Joe Maddon in Tampa Bay from 2011-14 and was under the tutelage of pitching coach Jim Hickey with the Rays through last season. Hickey, whom the Cubs hired in October, has been Cobb’s sole pitching coach since he debuted in 2011. Cobb spoke glowingly of those two last month and said he’d be “very honored” to sign with the Cubs.
While Cobb would be a risky signing, having undergone two serious procedures (thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in 2011 and Tommy John surgery in 2015) during his career, he’s still poised to land one of the richest contracts on the open market this winter. Across 700 major league innings, including a career-high 179 1/3 last season, Cobb has pitched to a 3.50 ERA with 7.33 K/9, 2.62 BB/9 and a 54 percent groundball rate. Some of his numbers took a dip in 2017 (6.42 K/9, 47.8 percent grounder rate) – his first full year back from Tommy John surgery – though his velocity looked normal and he managed a quality 3.66 ERA/4.16 FIP, also recording a career-best walk rate (2.21 per nine).
Along with guaranteeing a notable sum to Cobb, who rejected the Rays’ $17.4MM qualifying offer, the Cubs would have to surrender their second-highest draft pick in 2018 (No. 63 overall) and $500K in international bonus pool space to sign him. But that prospect clearly isn’t scaring off the Cubs, who will collect compensation if their own qualified free agents (starter Jake Arrieta and closer Wade Davis) depart. The Cubs are still interested in retaining those two, per Levine, but picking up Cobb would give them five capable starters (Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester, Jose Quintana and Chatwood are the others) and seemingly lessen the chances for an Arrieta re-up.
East Notes & Rumors: Marlins, Red Sox, Schwarber, Stanton
An early morning look at the majors’ East divisions:
- There’s no desperation on the Marlins’ part to trade second baseman Starlin Castro, whom they’ll acquire from the Yankees when the teams’ Giancarlo Stanton trade becomes official, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. With a reasonable $22MM left on Castro’s contract over the next two years, the Marlins believe they’re in position to “wait for the right offer,” per Nightengale. Meanwhile, the Fish are entertaining offers for outfielder Marcell Ozuna, whom the Cardinals “badly desire,” Nightengale notes. Ozuna will make a projected $10.9MM in his penultimate arbitration-eligible season in 2018, and he’s coming off a career year, so moving him would help the Marlins further slash their payroll and improve their weak farm system in one fell swoop.
- The power-needy Red Sox have interest in Cubs left fielder Kyle Schwarber, according to Scott Lauber of ESPN.com, though he casts doubt on the idea of Chicago moving the 24-year-old. The Cubs’ front office has long been bullish on Schwarber, who’s coming off a disappointing season (granted, he did hit 30 home runs) but still under control for five more years. In the seemingly unlikely event the Cubs deal Schwarber to Boston, he’d be a candidate to slot in at first base/designated hitter.
- Keith Law of ESPN (subscription required and recommended) regards the Stanton trade as a “no-brainer” move for the Yankees, arguing that he won’t have to replicate the MVP form he showed off in 2017 to justify the 10-year, $265MM commitment for New York. Law also doesn’t close the door on the Yankees adding Bryce Harper in free agency next year, as he’s of the belief that the former center fielder could still be an option there in the short term. While the Yankees may have cleaned up in the swap, Law regards it as an opportunity lost for Miami because, in addition to Castro, it’ll only get a pair of “fringe prospects” in return for an elite player. Law goes on to assess the prospects, right-hander Jorge Guzman and infielder Jose Devers, in depth.
Reactions To And Effects Of The Giancarlo Stanton Trade
The Yankees shook the baseball world early Saturday when they agreed to acquire 2017 National League MVP Giancarlo Stanton from the Marlins. As you’d expect, the deal has elicited no shortage of media reactions, many of which we’ve rounded up here:
- While the Los Angeles-born Stanton would have preferred to go to the Dodgers, they didn’t make an offer that “intrigued” the Marlins, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. Sending Stanton to the Dodgers would have required the Marlins to take on more bad contracts than they were “comfortable with,” according to Sherman, who reports that LA wanted Miami to accept one or both of Adrian Gonzalez or Scott Kazmir and absorb $30MM of Stanton’s contract. The Marlins found acquiring Starlin Castro from the Yankees much more appealing, as he’s someone they could slot in at second base or flip elsewhere.
- The Dodgers’ wariness toward a more aggressive Stanton pursuit stemmed from the back-loaded nature of his 10-year, $295MM commitment, per Buster Olney of ESPN (subscription required and recommended). If he doesn’t opt out of his contract after 2020, Stanton will rake in $96MM over the final three years of his pact, when he’ll be in his late 30s. The Yankees will be able to slot him in at designated hitter then if his work in the field sharply declines with age, whereas the Dodgers would have had to continue running him out as a defender.
- Adding Stanton gives the Yankees as many as six major league-caliber outfielders, thereby making Jacoby Ellsbury and Clint Frazier potential trade candidates. The Yankees will work to rid themselves of Ellsbury, even if it means eating “a lot” of the $68.3MM left on his contract, George A. King III of the New York Post reports. Ellsbury was reportedly uninterested in leaving the Yankees as of earlier this week, but that was before the acquisition of Stanton relegated him to the role of a fifth outfielder. While Ellsbury, who has a full no-trade clause, would be a salary dump, the 23-year-old Frazier would likely bring back a quality return – perhaps a starter, King suggests. Additionally, the Yankees “would certainly listen on offers” for third baseman Chase Headley, per King. Headley is entering the last year of his contract, in which he’ll make $13MM.
- With new Marlins owners Derek Jeter and Bruce Sherman on a mission to continue paring down payroll to the $90MM range, Castro looks like their most obvious trade chip, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes. By parting with Castro – who has two years and $22MM left on his pact – and not taking back another guaranteed contract, Miami would still be about $15MM above its spending goal, Jackson notes. Further payroll slashing could come from deals involving some combination of Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, Martin Prado, Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa. Moving Castro, Ozuna, Ziegler and Tazawa would likely obviate any need to trade Yelich, Jackson suggests.
- Prior to the Yankees’ Stanton acquisition, they looked poised to go after Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper in free agency a year from now. That may be out the window now, leading Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post to posit that the trade probably helps the Nationals to some degree because it appears to erase a would-be Harper suitor. However, several other teams will make big offers to Harper, Janes points out, so retaining him on what should be a record contract still figures to be a tall order for the Nats.
- Harper is among the losers in this trade, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic opines (subscription required and recommended). Unsurprisingly, Harper’s agent, the always colorful Scott Boras, disagrees. “A Bronx opera . . . The Three Tenors . . . Hal’s genius, vision,” Boras told Rosenthal via email, referencing Harper, Stanton, Aaron Judge and Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner. Boras added that the Harper-Stanton-Judge trio would be “a galaxy of international popularity” on the same team. While Boras clearly isn’t ruling out a Yankees-Harper union, Rosenthal sees Manny Machado as a more likely target for the club in free agency next year.
- The fact that Stanton is set to join a Yankees team that was just one win from securing a World Series trip last season is a major blow to parity in the AL, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs argues. Cameron classifies the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox and Indians as potential “super teams” heading into next season, and the Angels could be on their way to the playoffs after winning the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes. As impressive as those clubs look, there’s now less incentive for others to play for the last wild-card spot, Cameron contends, which could lead certain fringe teams to rebuild.
Yankees, Marlins Reach Deal For Stanton
10:56am: Jon Heyman of FanRag reports via Twitter that the Yankees will receive about $35MM from the Marlins in the deal, and confirms that they’ll send back Castro and prospects. Heyman also adds in a separate tweet that Stanton is on his way to NYC for a physical, making it clear that he is waiving his no-trade clause.
10:35am: A source close to Morosi confirms Rosenthal’s report that Stanton is expected to approve the trade.
9:56am: A last-ditch effort to acquire Stanton today by the Dodgers is unlikely, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports hears (Twitter link).
9:33am: The main prospects that would be headed back in the deal are down in the lower levels of the Yankees’ minor league system, Sherman adds.
9:20am: Sherman hears that Castro is the only veteran going back to the Marlins in the deal (Twitter link). The other players going to Miami are Yankees prospects, though not their “best.”
8:49am: The expectation is that Stanton will approve the trade, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Rosenthal also mentions that the deal is pending physicals, which seem to be the only real item standing in the way of the trade being considered complete.
7:14am: The Yankees and Marlins have a deal for Giancarlo Stanton, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. The deal is still subject to Stanton’s approval, as the slugger has full no-trade rights. Several hours prior, Joel Sherman of the New York Post called the deal “virtually done,” noting the Marlins will receive second baseman Starlin Castro “plus good but not top prospects” if completed. Before that, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle had reported the deal as “close if not done.”
Yesterday, Stanton rejected trades to the Cardinals and Giants. Previous reporting has indicated that the Yankees are on the short list of teams to which Stanton would be willing to be traded, so his approval in this case may not be a major hurdle. Stanton will also need to pass a physical by the Yankees, as Sherman has noted.
The pairing of Giancarlo Stanton with Aaron Judge will be one for the ages. Stanton just took home the NL MVP award with an epic 59 home run season, a level that had not been reached since Barry Bonds in 2001. Meanwhile, Judge won the American League Rookie of the Year award and finished second in the AL MVP voting with 52 bombs, a rookie record. Throw in catcher Gary Sanchez, and Yankees GM Brian Cashman has assembled a Murderers’ Row of right-handed sluggers.
Earlier this year, the Marlins were purchased by a group led by former Yankees great Derek Jeter, as well as investor Bruce Sherman. The pair chose to keep alive the Marlins’ fire sale tradition, intent on moving Stanton because of the massive contract he signed under previous owner Jeffrey Loria three years ago. The Marlins’ leverage was clearly reduced after Stanton rejected trades to the Cardinals and Giants. Stanton, 28, is still owed $295MM over the next ten years. After the 2020 season, he has the right to opt out of the remaining seven years and $218MM, which will be a source of significant downside risk for the Yankees. Yankees GM Brian Cashman has expressed his commitment to getting the team’s payroll under the $197MM luxury tax threshold, which isn’t easy to do while adding Stanton’s contract. Sending Castro to the Marlins removes a two-year, $22MM commitment. However, as Sherman points out, the average annual value of Castro’s contract is what counts towards the tax; that figure is $8.6MM.
It’s certainly too early to say this for certain, but the impact of this trade could even reach next year’s free agent market, as Mark Zuckerman notes on Twitter. The Yankees have long been considered one of the best potential suitors for former NL MVP Bryce Harper, but may not have room for him in their outfield (or potentially their 2019 payroll) any longer. It would be hard to imagine them using one of Judge, Stanton or Harper exclusively as a designated hitter, and none of them are likely candidates to play anywhere on the field besides the outfield corners.
The deal will also come with significant risk for the Yankees. As Eno Sarris of Fangraphs pointed out back in November, it’s hard to know how the reigning NL MVP will age. Stanton also missed large portions of the 2015 and 2016 seasons with a broken hand and a groin strain, respectively. Add that injury history into the mix, and there’s a number of scenarios that end with Stanton’s contract becoming a significant albatross for the Yankees during the final years of the deal. This doesn’t necessarily detract from the fact that New York is in a much better position over the next few years due to the slugging outfielder’s presence, but it’s certainly a notable concern.
Acquiring Stanton should help soften the blow for the Yankees of seeing Shohei Ohtani agree to terms with the Angels. Last week, the Bombers were considered strong suitors for the services of the two-way Japanese phenom, and didn’t seem like serious contenders to land Stanton in a trade. While the Yanks will still want to make a big improvement to their pitching staff, Stanton adds similar value to their roster overall, and perhaps allows them to be more aggressive in shopping outfielder Clint Frazier for cost-controlled starting pitchers (hat tip to Joel Sherman).
The Miami Marlins originally took Stanton with the 76th overall pick in the 2007 draft (second round). After a hot start with the Marlins’ Double-A affiliate three years later, the team decided to promote him straight to the majors, skipping Triple-A entirely. Stanton stuck in the majors and has been a power monster ever since; he’s already socked 267 home runs over the course of his career to go with a .268/.360/.554 career slash line. While he’s dealt with a plethora of injuries that have caused him to miss time in four of his seven full seasons, the Sherman Oaks, California high school product has averaged roughly 4.5 WAR during that time. 2017 was Stanton’s best season yet; not only did he mash a career-high 59 homers, but he cut his strikeout rate down to a career-low 23.6%. Ultimately, he was rewarded with the National League’s MVP honors for his tremendous year.
Yankees, Marlins In Advanced Talks On Giancarlo Stanton
SATURDAY, 12:35am: “Serious” talks between the Yankees and Marlins have been underway for “at least a few days,” Heyman tweets. Indeed, the presence of a more desirable potential landing spot (from Stanton’s perspective) may even have dissuaded the slugger somewhat from accepting a move to the Giants or Cardinals, Heyman suggests.
FRIDAY, 11:41pm: A deal to send Stanton to New York is “close if not done,” a source tells Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter).
10:17pm: The Dodgers are also still involved on Stanton, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets, though the Yankees are at a “more advanced stage” with their new push. Indeed, the Marlins’ discussions with other clubs are not considered serious at this point, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).
Meanwhile, there are some competing forces at work between the Marlins and Yankees. The Marlins are “not remotely interested” in taking on underperforming contracts from the Yankees, Bob Nightengale of USA Today cautions (Twitter link). At the same time, Miami may be hoping to get something done before the Winter Meetings get underway next week, Heyman tweets, to make the move before teams begin committing significant cash elsewhere.
9:33pm: We have heard hints of this in recent days, and now there’s firm indication: the Yankees are “in play” for Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links).
Indeed, there’s real progress between the two organizations, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports adds (Twitter links), characterizing the talks as having “significant” levels of “momentum.” But a Marlins source tells Rosenthal that there’s no deal close at present, while acknowledging the teams are indeed “talking” about a swap.
After utilizing his blanket no-trade rights to eliminate the Giants and Cardinals from contention today, the heavily-marketed Stanton is open to new bidders. But with the two most aggressive suitors out of the picture, there’s now less clarity about who’ll drive the market for one of the game’s best players. With the Fish scrambling after their initial efforts fell flat, the Yankees feel they are in a position of strength in negotiations, Passan notes.
Reports have indicated that Stanton is amenable to waiving his no-trade protection to go to the Yankees — or, instead, to the Dodgers, Cubs, and Astros. But of these teams, only New York and Los Angeles have been firmly connected to Stanton at this point. And both are said to be uninterested in assuming the full, $295MM commitment remaining on his contract.
While it has long been reported that the Dodgers have remained lurking on the edges of the Stanton market, the Yankees’ potential interest has been murkier. That’s due in no small part to the team’s reputedly firm commitment to dip below the luxury tax line this year. Whether or not it’s possible for the team to accomplish that while adding Stanton isn’t clear, but certainly it would require significant financial maneuvering. That only adds to the intrigue of the structuring of a possible trade.
If the Yankees are to add Stanton without bearing the full brunt of his salary, that’ll mean either leaving money with the Marlins or — perhaps more likely — sending some big contracts back in the deal. The Yanks are well-equipped to manage Stanton’s long-term commitment — the team has only around $150MM total committed beyond the 2018 season — but will have to be somewhat creative to get under the $197MM luxury tax bar for the coming season, which the organization hopes to do in order to re-set its luxury tax rate (which graduates depending upon how many consecutive seasons a club exceeds it).
It’s mostly speculation at this point, but there are a few obvious possibilities. Jacoby Ellsbury is owed $67MM through 2020 and has been discussed as a possibility, but his no-trade rights seem to pose a major complication. Chase Headley ($13MM through 2018) and Starlin Castro ($22MM through 2019) are among the other fairly expensive players that might conceivably be utilized to arrange a swap. Though both are currently penciled in for significant roles, Castro has indeed been discussed by the sides, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). Those players might also make greater sense for the Marlins since their salaries could be passed on in subsequent trades. Indeed, Castro and Headley are more likely to be involved as salary offsets than is Ellsbury, Heyman tweets. Aiding the Yankees’ flexibility in the infield is the fact that top prospect Gleyber Torres and other talented youngsters are nearing MLB readiness. Frankly, though, there are any number of permutations that one could imagine going back and forth between the teams, with other veterans on either side conceivably being involved to balance things out.
Of course, it’s also at least hypothetically possible that the Yankees will push back their luxury tax re-set date for another year. There’s much greater flexibility then than there is now. While the team has indicated it is fully committed to the limbo effort, its timeline for contention obviously ramped up with a strong 2017 season that included the emergence of Aaron Judge as a middle-of-the-order force. The thought of Judge, Stanton, and young catcher Gary Sanchez mashing long balls from the same lineup may just nudge the Yankees to make a bold move now rather than waiting for an exciting crop of free agents to hit the market next winter.
Giancarlo Stanton Rumors: 12/7/17
The market for Marlins star Giancarlo Stanton has been stagnant for a few days now. That could change at any moment, if Stanton green-lights one of the deal structures currently in place. And we’ve heard there’s some anticipation of some kind of resolution by the end of the week. But the longer things drag out, the more time and space there is for the existing top suitors to waver — and, perhaps, for others to enter the picture more clearly. It’s still not evident how this will all turn out, but there are some hints that the situation is not necessarily nearing resolution:
- Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic offers an updated look at the market in a subscription piece, with some interesting tweaks on what has become the status quo. It’s well worth a full read. There seems to be a split of opinion among Rosenthal’s sources as to just where things stand with regard to the Giants and Cardinals, with some saying Stanton is disinclined to approve a trade to either organization and others insisting his “thinking is fluid.” Regardless, those two clubs likely won’t linger around waiting forever, particularly if they come to believe they aren’t going to be able to convince the star to approve a deal. Should that come to pass, says Rosenthal, the Fish will be in a tough spot. If there’s a way out (beyond hoping Stanton says yes to one of the existing suitors), it may come from engaging both the Dodgers and — yes — the Yankees, each of whom Rosenthal says are still “on the periphery.” And Rosenthal adds that Stanton is open to a move to the Bronx. Of course, both of those mega-market clubs are in the process of reining in long-burdened balance sheets; Rosenthal writes that Miami would need to hang onto some significant cash (or take on pricey veterans in return) to get something done and perhaps entice real prospect value.
- Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio hears similarly to Rosenthal regarding the Los Angeles and New York organizations (via Twitter). And his colleague Craig Mish even suggests (links to Twitter) that Stanton has now given the Marlins more clarity than had previously been known, with a list of four teams to which he’d approve a deal. The Astros and Cubs — neither of whom have been linked substantially to Stanton — are said to be on this list along with the Dodgers and Yankees. While the Giants and Cardinals are not on this “preferred list,” as Mish terms it, Stanton was at least willing to hear their pitches. Ultimately, this leaves it unknown whether Stanton has been swayed in his initial thinking and does not really conflict with prior reporting that has indicated Stanton would maintain an open mind entering the process.
- Jon Heyman of Fan Rag painted at least a somewhat different picture earlier today, writing that the Dodgers are a “long shot” for Stanton if a move is to happen in the near future, as their limited engagement to date would leave them with quite a bit of work to do to sort out an agreement. With some indication that Stanton could make some kind of decision on interest from the Giants and Cardinals by the end of the week, it does not seem as if the Dodgers are likely to swoop in — but, perhaps, could still enter the picture if Stanton declines to go to San Francisco or St. Louis. It’s worth noting, too, that Heyman recently broached the topic of the Yankees‘ ongoing interest in Stanton.
- Speaking of the Giants’ interest in Stanton, Heyman writes that chief executive officer Larry Baer was among those to meet with the reigning MLB home run king. The CEO was previously reported to have met with Ohtani, too, so he’s clearly getting involved personally in these highly significant decisions for the organization. Baer “loves” the reigning NL MVP, according to Heyman, who adds that a free-agent pursuit of J.D. Martinez is viewed as the Giants’ primary alternative to Stanton.
Heyman’s Latest: Ohtani, Machado, Cards, Pads, Hosmer, Ellsbury
It’s possible that Shohei Ohtani could make his decision on where to sign “by early next week,” according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). That gives us an idea of a potential timeline, though there’s still plenty of wiggle room.
Here’s more from Heyman on a variety of subjects:
- The Orioles have been receiving calls on third baseman Manny Machado, writes Heyman. While the O’s aren’t shopping Machado and don’t wish to move him, Heyman notes that Baltimore is also willing to at least entertain offers on any of its players, even Machado. Presumably, it’d take a staggeringly high offer to convince the O’s to part with Machado even in spite of the fact that he’s just a year removed from free agency. The Orioles have reportedly been pursuing upgrades in their rotation all winter as they seek to bolster their club for one more run with Machado, closer Zach Britton and center fielder Adam Jones at the forefront of their roster. Heyman notes that the O’s are also having internal discussions about whether to try for a Machado extension, though doing so would likely require a precedent-setting deal for the 25-year-old superstar, as Machado currently projects to hit free agency at the abnormally young age of 26.
- Sticking with the Orioles, Heyman says in his weekly notes post that the Rockies (previously reported) and Cardinals are among the teams that have shown some interest in Britton. It seems reasonable to suspect that Britton is more readily available than is Machado, given that Baltimore went well down the line on a possible deadline deal for the lefty. But that doesn’t mean the team will simply accept the top bid; in all likelihood, prying him loose will mean meeting the O’s asking price.
- Some around the game believe the Cardinals could at least consider trading outfielder Dexter Fowler, Heyman adds. St. Louis would only do so, he suggests, if they were able to move most of the salary. That seems mostly reasonable to expect, given that Fowler posted a sturdy .264/.363/.488 slash with a career-high 18 long balls in his first season with the Cards. As for whether a trade is likely, that seems dubious. Fowler has a no-trade clause and sounds like he is settling in nicely in St. Louis. And president of baseball operations John Mozeliak kicked off the offseason by telling Fowler he wasn’t planning on trading him.
- There’s more indication that the Padres are fairly serious about going after Eric Hosmer, says Heyman. He also reported yesterday that first baseman Wil Myers would be amenable to moving to the outfield to make way for Hosmer to play at first. Of course, whether the Pads are really willing to hand out a big enough contract to get a deal done remains to be seen.
- At shortstop, the Padres have taken a look at Phillies veteran Freddy Galvis, says Heyman. The team is also weighing free agent Alcides Escobar. Either would seemingly make sense as a stop-gap option for the rebuilding club.
- The Angels are looking harder at second basemen and first basemen than they are at the hot corner, says Heyman. It seems, then, that the club feels fairly content with Luis Valbuena taking the bulk of the time at third, though perhaps that could change depending upon what opportunities arise over the winter — and whether or not the team lands Ohtani. At second, the Halos have at last “looked at” Neil Walker, who’s said to be asking for three or four years.
- The Mets have taken looks at free agent first basemen Mitch Moreland and Adam Lind, relays Heyman. With 22-year-old Dominic Smith in place, Heyman suggests the Mets may opt for a short-term first base option with outfield experience. Both Moreland and Lind check those boxes, though Heyman notes that the Mets are unlikely to sign the former.
- Yankees center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury is slated to serve as a reserve yet again next season, but he’d like to remain with the club, per Heyman. Ellsbury’s full no-trade clause and the nearly $70MM left on his contract (including a $5MM buyout in 2021) figure to make dealing the 34-year-old a rather tall order for the Yanks.