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Dusty Baker To Announce Retirement Tomorrow

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Dusty Baker is retiring, the longtime manager tells Bob Nightengale of USA Today. According to Nightengale, the 74-year-old informed Houston owner Jim Crane of his decision in a meeting yesterday. The Astros have scheduled a press conference for tomorrow afternoon to make the official announcement.

“I’m very grateful and thankful to Jim Crane and the Houston Astros for giving me this opportunity, and to win a championship,” Baker told Nightengale. “I felt like they’ve been good for me, and I’ve been good for them. What I really appreciate is that Jim has been totally honest and transparent with me on all things.”

The news doesn’t come as any kind of surprise. Chandler Rome and Britt Ghiroli of the Athletic reported in the immediate aftermath of Houston’s elimination in the ALCS that Baker had been telling those close to him he planned to move on. Baker confirmed to Nightengale that he has known for some time that he was stepping away after this season. While he no longer wants the daily grind of managerial work, Baker told Nightengale he was hopeful of landing an advisory position with an organization to remain in the game in some capacity.

It’s the conclusion of what’ll almost certainly be a Hall of Fame career. After concluding a near 20-year MLB playing career, Baker made the jump to managing. He took over the Giants in 1993, guiding the team to 103 wins in his first season. That still left them just shy of the postseason, and a trio of subsequent losing campaigns meant Baker didn’t get his initial playoff appearance until 1997. Baker made the postseason three times in San Francisco, highlighted by a trip to the World Series in 2002.

After the decade-long run in the Bay Area, Baker moved on to the Cubs. He guided Chicago to the NLCS in his first season, although that’d be his only playoff appearance in four years. Baker led the Reds from 2008-13, winning a pair of NL Central titles. After two years away from the game, he returned to the dugout in Washington. Baker led the Nationals from 2016-17 before being dismissed and replaced by Dave Martinez.

That appeared as if it could be the end of Baker’s lengthy career. He was away from the game for consecutive seasons. Once the Astros’ sign-stealing scheme was revealed, Houston fired A.J. Hinch early in 2020. The Astros sought a veteran manager to navigate the fallout of the scandal, tabbing Baker in late January.

The tenure started slowly, as Houston went just 29-31 in the shortened regular season. That was enough to qualify for the expanded postseason, however, and the Astros clicked in October. They made the ALCS, an achievement they’d repeat in all four of Baker’s seasons at the helm. Their sluggish regular season of 2020 wasn’t a factor in any of the subsequent full schedules, as Houston topped 90 wins and claimed division titles every season from 2021-23.

The Astros advanced to the World Series in 2021, dropping a six-game set against the Braves. They repeated as AL champions after a 106-win season a year ago. Houston carried that dominance into the postseason, sweeping the Mariners and Yankees to set up a Fall Classic matchup with the Phillies. They won the series in six games, securing the franchise’s second championship. It was the final box for Baker personally, marking his first title. The club fell just shy of a third straight pennant, although it marked the 12th playoff appearance of his career.

The Astros have gone 320-226 (58.6% win percentage) since the start of 2020. Baker’s clubs have won 54% of their regular season contests over his 26-year career. His 2,183 victories rank seventh in major league history. Aside from Baker, Bruce Bochy and Terry Francona — all of whom have remained active through this year — everyone in the top 14 on the wins leaderboard has been enshrined in the Hall of Fame. MLBTR congratulates Baker on an illustrious career and wishes him all the best in retirement.

Houston becomes the fifth team with a managerial vacancy. The Guardians, Mets and Angels all fired their skippers, while Bob Melvin departed the Padres to join the division-rival Giants. Craig Counsell has considered various opportunities as his contract with the Brewers expires, leaving a sixth team with some amount of uncertainty.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox Officially Hire Craig Breslow As Chief Baseball Officer

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TODAY: The Red Sox officially announced Breslow’s hiring today, with an introductory press conference scheduled for November 2, one week from today. Principal owner John Henry, chairman Tom Werner, and team president Sam Kennedy all spoke glowingly of Breslow in statements.

“Each year, one baseball club emerges with a championship. Our organization continues to have significantly high standards and expectations with a goal of being able to compete annually for that coveted privilege,” Henry said, “We feel strongly that Craig is the right person at the right time to lead our baseball department. Craig’s understanding of the game is remarkable. What convinced us to bring him aboard in this capacity was his highly strategic philosophy and his grasp of what it takes operationally in today’s evolving game to excel at the highest level in player acquisition, development, and execution at the major league level. We are excited to welcome him back.”

Werner praised Breslow as “an extraordinary leader” while Kennedy noted the “astounding character references” the club received regarding Breslow from the likes of David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, and Cubs manager David Ross, all of whom played with Breslow during his time as a pitcher with the Red Sox. Breslow himself also released a statement.

“I couldn’t be more excited to return to the Boston Red Sox, an organization that means so much to my family and to me. I am humbled by the opportunity to lead baseball operations and to work alongside so many talented people.” Breslow said, “I know firsthand how special winning in Boston is, and I look forward to once again experiencing that passion and success with our fans.”

Oct. 25: Craig Breslow has accepted the Red Sox’s offer to take over as head of baseball operations, report Alex Speier and Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe (X link). He is expected to be named chief baseball officer, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive (on X). The team will presumably wait until Wednesday before announcing the hire.

Breslow, 43, is a Yale graduate who spent 12 seasons in the majors as a reliever. While he spread that across seven organizations, he’s best known for his time with the Sox. The New Haven native pitched 211 innings across five campaigns with Boston, turning in a 1.81 ERA for the 2013 World Series club.

After concluding his playing career in 2018, Breslow signed on with the Cubs as their director of strategic initiatives for baseball operations. He shed that wordy title when he was named director of pitching one season later. The following year, the Cubs bumped him to AGM in Jed Hoyer’s front office, a title he has held for the last three years.

Just a half-decade after first joining a front office, he’ll get his crack at running the show. Breslow replaces Chaim Bloom, who was fired midway through September with the team en route to a second straight last place finish. Boston finished the season at 78-84, an identical record as they had in 2022.

Breslow will be tasked with pushing the club back into contention in one of the game’s toughest divisions. He steps into a situation that’s certainly not devoid of talent but comes with an uncertain direction. The Red Sox ranked 11th in run scoring behind a lineup anchored by Rafael Devers and Triston Casas this past season. Former top prospect Jarren Duran took a step forward to secure an outfield spot.

Boston will have some decisions to make as they build around that group. Justin Turner is likely to decline a player option, subtracting one of their top hitters from this year. Alex Verdugo is entering his final season of arbitration eligibility and could be a trade candidate. The Sox will need better from Trevor Story at shortstop but could upgrade at second base, which was a revolving door during Bloom’s tenure. Masataka Yoshida is on hand in left field and at designated hitter, while they could explore ways to upgrade on the catching tandem of Connor Wong and Reese McGuire.

The pitching side has its share of uncertainty as well. Tanner Houck, Nick Pivetta and Garrett Whitlock are all effective multi-inning arms who haven’t cemented themselves as starters. Brayan Bello tailed off following a promising first half. Chris Sale has battled myriad injuries in recent years. Boston’s rotation finished 22nd in ERA.

While a mediocre defense hasn’t done the pitching many favors, sorting out the rotation might be the top priority for Breslow and his front office staff. The longtime hurler unsurprisingly took on a heavy workload in building the pitching infrastructure in Chicago, as The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma, Patrick Mooney, Jen McCaffrey and Chad Jennings chronicle.

The Red Sox have a solid minor league pipeline and an organizational track record of running higher-end payrolls. They’ve cut back on player spending of late, opening this season outside the top 10 for the first time this century (as covered by Cot’s Baseball Contracts). It’s unclear precisely how much ownership will make available this offseason, although it’s apparent the Sox are going to make some kind of effort to compete in 2024.

Breslow joins Texas GM Chris Young, White Sox GM Chris Getz and Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto as former MLB players who are now in charge of a front office. He landed the job over the likes of Minnesota GM Thad Levine, former Pirates GM Neal Huntington, former Giants manager Gabe Kapler and internal candidates like Eddie Romero, Michael Groopman and Paul Toboni — all of whom met with Boston brass. Various high-profile executives (e.g. James Click, Kim Ng, Derek Falvey and Mike Hazen) either declined interviews or pulled themselves out of the mix at one point or another.

It’s possible Breslow’s hiring is just the first, if most important, in constructing the new look front office. There have been reports that Boston could also hire a new #2 executive in the kind of arrangement that has become commonplace around the game.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Giants To Sign Bob Melvin, Farhan Zaidi Through 2026

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The Giants held an introductory press conference to present new manager Bob Melvin today. It was announced that both Melvin and president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi have agreed to deals that run through 2026, with Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic among those to relay the news. While Melvin’s deal is signed, chairman Greg Johnson said that Zaidi and the club have “agreed in principle” to a deal through 2026 which will be announced shortly, video courtesy NBCS. Zaidi announced that they will give the Padres no compensation for acquiring Melvin, per John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle.

Melvin was manager of the Padres until now, on a deal that ran through 2024. It wasn’t known if his reported move to the Giants would affect his contract, but today’s news provides some clarity on that front. The news about Zaidi is also particularly noteworthy since his current deal was also set to expire after 2024. Though he hasn’t put pen to paper yet, it seems he will secure himself a bit of runway as well.

The Giants have been somewhat inconsistent since Zaidi was hired at the end of the 2018 season. The club finished below .500 in the two seasons prior to him joining the club and would post two more losing seasons in 2019-2020. That was followed by an incredible jump to 107 victories in 2021, though that club was eliminated by the Dodgers in the NLDS. They then dropped to 81-81 in 2022 and were expected to be ambitious in the 2022-2023 offseason as they looked to get back into contention.

They did indeed set their sights high, coming close to landing Aaron Judge before he wound up back with the Yankees. The Giants then pivoted to another free agent superstar in Carlos Correa, agreeing to a 13-year, $350MM deal, but the Giants balked at Correa’s medicals and walked away before making that deal official. By then, most of the top free agents had already signed elsewhere and the Giants eventually spread their money around to several mid-tier guys, including Ross Stripling, Sean Manaea, Michael Conforto, Mitch Haniger, Taylor Rogers and Luke Jackson.

Though the club hovered around the postseason picture for parts of 2023, they ultimately slid down the standings and finished at 79-83. It was expected that 2024 was going to be a sort of make-or-break year for the staff, with both Zaidi and manager Gabe Kapler believed to be on contracts that would expire after that season. As recently as mid-September, Johnson voiced his support for the Kapler/Zaidi duo to return in 2024. But Kapler was fired just a couple of weeks later and has now been replaced by Melvin. It seems that Johnson and the club want to give this new duo some continuity going forward and will lock them in for three years.

Despite the inconsistent results on the field, it’s understandable why the club felt it would need to present a united front. Signing a marquee free agent figures to be a big priority again this offseason and it should help with the pitch if they have things in order. Many free agents will go to whichever team offers the most money, but if they receive somewhat comparable offers from multiple clubs, other factors could act as dealbreakers. Signing onto a club with a lame duck president could have perhaps created some uncertainty in the minds of prospective signees, but today’s announcement should take that off the table.

Even if the Giants are successful in landing a big name free agent or two this winter, the path back to contention will still have challenges. The Dodgers continue to be a powerhouse and should have plenty of money to spend this offseason. The Diamondbacks are headed to the World Series right now and are loaded with young talent to keep them in good shape going forward. The Padres are a bit of a mystery at the moment but still have plenty of star power. It will be an interesting period for the Giants but the ticking clock isn’t quite as loud as it appeared to be coming into today.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Mets To Interview Craig Counsell For Managerial Vacancy

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The Mets have received permission from the Brewers to interview Craig Counsell, reports Andy Martino of SNY, and will interview him soon.

Counsell, 53, has been the manager of the Brewers since 2015 but has been a speculative fit for the Mets for a while now. David Stearns had been general manager/president of baseball operations in Milwaukee for roughly the same period of time that Counsell was manager and recently made the move to the Mets. Upon joining his new club, he almost immediately fired Buck Showalter and opened the manager position in Queens.

Given the longstanding relationship between Stearns and Counsell, many made the logical conclusion that Stearns would bring Counsell to the Mets with him. But that assumed reunion has been on hold recently, as Counsell is still technically the manager of the Brewers. It was previously reported that his contract runs through the end of October, which seemed like it was going to push any interviews with the Mets or other clubs until November, though it now appears the Brewers will let him talk to the Mets about a week early.

The Brewers have generally been successful during the Stearns-Counsell period, making the playoffs in five of the past six seasons despite not running up huge payrolls. That has naturally led to interest from other clubs, wondering what they could do with more resources. Stearns is already aboard with the Mets but it’s not a guarantee Counsell will follow him. As Martino adds, Counsell is expected to pursue other openings just as the Mets are expected to consider other candidates.

The Guardians, Angels and Padres also have managerial vacancies and would presumably have some level of interest in Counsell. It’s been reported that Dusty Baker may step away from managing as well, which would add the Astros to that list. It also can’t really be ruled out that Counsell stays with the Brewers. While he may be tempted by a bigger market and a presumably larger salary, he grew up in Wisconsin and has long-standing ties to the region. His father worked for the Brewers and Craig spent part of his playing career with the club before his managerial career began.

About a week ago, Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that the Brewers felt he would stay in Milwaukee if he was paid “what he believes is fair.” He reportedly made $3.5MM in 2023, though it’s unknown what level of compensation he would consider a reasonable bump. Given the free-spending ways of the Mets, they would likely be able to offer him a higher salary than the Brewers, though it’s unknown whether that would be enough to pry Counsell away from the club where he has those aforementioned connections.

Some might interpret the Brewers giving him permission to talk to the Mets as a sign they aren’t committed to Counsell, though another explanation would just be about timing. Teams generally prefer to have a manager in place when the offseason begins and they start talking to potential free agents. Therefore the Brewers could have it in their best interest to have Counsell start assessing his options so that they can get clarity on whether he may come back or if they themselves need to start interviewing new candidates.

Giants Hire Bob Melvin As Manager

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October 25: The Giants have made it official, announcing today that Bob Melvin is now their manager.

October 24: The Giants “are poised to announce” that Bob Melvin has been hired as the team’s new manager, The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly reports.  It isn’t known when the official announcement could be made, though the league prefers that teams save major news for between postseason rounds, so the Giants may wait until for the two days between the end of the NLCS and the start of the World Series on Friday.

Between the late-season firing of Gabe Kapler as manager and the reports of discord between Melvin and Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, there has been plenty of speculation over the last month that Melvin might find himself on the move from San Diego to San Francisco.  Padres chairman Peter Seidler’s stated preference was that both Melvin and Preller remain with the organization in 2024, and Preller even said in a post-season wrapup press conference that “Bob is our manager, and he’s going to be our manager going forward.”

However, Melvin remained on the Giants’ radar, and a parting between Melvin and the Padres seemed inevitable once San Diego granted Melvin permission to interview with the Giants this past weekend.  As Baggarly reports, that interview took place on Monday, and involved several members of San Francisco’s ownership group and baseball operations staff, not to mention franchise icon Buster Posey.  It seems as though the interview was enough to confirm Melvin’s status as the favorite for the job, and the veteran skipper will now get a new job as an early birthday present, as he turns 62 on Saturday.

Melvin’s resume includes three Manager of the Year Awards, eight postseason appearances, and a 1517-1425 record over 20 seasons with the Padres, Athletics, Diamondbacks, and Mariners.  The hiring in San Francisco is also something of a homecoming for the Palo Alto native, and a continuation of Melvin’s linkage of the Bay Area and his baseball career.  Melvin played with the Giants for three of his 10 seasons as a big league catcher, and had an 11-year stint managing the A’s from 2011-21.

As it happens, this is the second time in almost exactly two years that Melvin take a new managerial job while leaving another job with one year remaining on his contract.  The A’s had contractual control over Melvin for the 2022 season but chose to let him walk to the Padres without compensation, with reports stating that Melvin’s $4MM salary was seen as onerous for an Oakland club that was about to embark on a major teardown.  It is also fair to assume that the Athletics front office was open to letting Melvin make a graceful exit to a better situation, rather than keep him as manager for at least one season of what looks like it will be a lengthy rebuild process.

This past weekend’s reports from Baggarly and Dennis Lin suggest that Melvin’s current salary (also $4MM for 2024, the last year of his Padres contract) might have been a factor in San Diego’s decision, as the organization is planning to reduce expenditures in a number of different areas.  With a mounting debt that could be in conflict with MLB regulations and some broadcasting uncertainty due to the Diamond Sports Group’s bankruptcy proceedings, the Padres look to be cutting back on the high-spending ways, including a reported reduction in player payroll to around $200MM for next season.

Finances aside, the simpler answer is probably just that the Giants’ interest allowed for the Padres to part ways with Melvin in relatively smooth fashion, without the awkwardness of a firing.  Preller has already fired three different managers (Bud Black, Andy Green, Jayce Tingler) during his nine-plus years in charge of San Diego’s front office, and three other men (Dave Roberts, Pat Murphy, Rod Barajas) have also worked as interim managers.  Of course, whether it was a firing or a “parting of the ways,” the bottom line is that the Padres have had another manager come and go while Preller remains.

Lin and Ken Rosenthal examined how the Preller/Melvin relationship soured in a piece for The Athletic last month, and the criticisms of Preller’s management style also predated Melvin’s arrival in San Diego.  In fact, Melvin’s hiring was seen as a stabilizing element after the clubhouse turmoil that marked the end of Tingler’s managerial stint, yet it seems as though the ship was only steadied through the success of the 2022 season.  This year, the Padres underachieved despite their massive payroll, with a very poor record in one-run (9-23) and extra-inning (2-12) games undermining a team that, by all other statistical measurements, should’ve won a lot more than 82 games.

With even more pressure on Preller to get the Friars on track, the next managerial hire will be one of the most crucial decisions of his tenure.  Two internal candidates (Mike Shildt and bench coach Ryan Flaherty) have already emerged as leading contenders for the job, and it might be that the Padres wanted to start lining up some candidates before officially green-lighting Melvin’s interview with San Francisco.  San Diego will surely interview some other people out of due diligence, though it wouldn’t be a shock if the job does end up going to either first-time manager Flaherty, or former Cardinals skipper Shildt.

As for Melvin, he’ll now take over another team in need of a culture change.  After winning 107 games in 2021, the Giants are 159-163 over the last two seasons, and Kapler’s hands-off managerial style was starting to seem more like a detriment than a plus.  Several Giants players, either on or off the record, felt the club was somewhat directionless, with Logan Webb outright stating he felt “we have to make some big changes in here to create that winning culture.”

These criticisms extended not only to Kapler but to president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, whose contract is believed to run only through the end of the 2024 season.  As such, Zaidi is also certainly feeling the pressure to build a contending roster, and the Giants are expected to be aggressive shoppers this winter after missing out on both Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa as a big-ticket addition last offseason.  Faced with what might be a make-or-break scenario, it probably isn’t surprising that Zaidi has turned to a familiar face as manager — Zaidi previously worked as the Athletics’ assistant GM during Melvin’s tenure in Oakland.

The terms of Melvin’s contract aren’t yet known, though Baggarly suggests it could be a relatively short-term deal, should Melvin view the San Francisco job “as a fitting place to round out” his career.  There has been some buzz about possible coaching changes coming to the Giants’ staff, though Baggarly suggests that the majority of San Francisco’s 13-person staff could be retained.  That perhaps puts a different spin on the Giants’ managerial search, as the focus on internal candidates and others with past Giants ties (i.e. Stephen Vogt) might have been a way of gauging how any of these candidates might have been willing to mesh with Melvin, if he was Zaidi’s preferred choice all along.

Padres Permit Bob Melvin To Interview For Giants’ Managerial Position

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Padres manager Bob Melvin has been given permission by the team to interview with the Giants about their managerial vacancy, according to The Athletic’s Dennis Lin and Andrew Baggarly.  “Melvin has emerged as the favorite in San Francisco, with league sources indicating that he received assurances he would be a top candidate before he agreed to participate in the interview process,” Lin and Baggarly write.

Reports surfaced two days ago that the Giants were temporarily halting their search for a new manager while waiting to hear back from rival teams for their go-ahead to interview employees.  Melvin was chief among this new group of candidates, and it could very well be that the Giants were specifically waiting on the Padres on whether or not Melvin would be allowed to speak with the division rival.  Melvin is still under contract with San Diego through the end of the 2024 season, though rumors have swirled for months about Melvin’s future with the club and his relationship with president of baseball operations A.J. Preller.

By this point, it would seem like an upset if Melvin doesn’t end up as San Francisco’s next manager.  While the official interview has yet to take place, Melvin and Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi are quite familiar with each other — Melvin was the Athletics’ manager when Zaidi began his baseball career in Oakland’s front office over a decade ago.  Lin and Baggarly note that it could create an even more awkward situation between Melvin and Preller if Melvin didn’t end up getting the Giants job, so perhaps regardless of what happens with the San Francisco interview, Melvin might not be back as the Padres’ skipper in 2024.

Back in September, Lin and Ken Rosenthal delved into the internal issues that have plagued the Padres organization even before their disappointing 2023 season.  Chief among these problems is the allegedly frosty relationship between Melvin and Preller, though both men have downplayed the idea of any discord.  After the Padres finished with only an 82-80 record this season, there was plenty of speculation that either Melvin or both Melvin and Preller could be fired, yet club chairman Peter Seidler gave a full vote of confidence to his management team at season’s end.  Preller also stated soon afterward that “Bob is our manager, and he’s going to be our manager going forward,” seemingly putting the matter to rest.

However, many pundits felt a parting was coming sooner rather than the later, especially when the Giants’ managerial position became open after Gabe Kapler was fired.  The past ties between Melvin and Zaidi made the veteran skipper a logical candidate from day one, assuming the hurdle of the Padres’ clearance for an interview could be jumped.

It is possible the Padres and Giants might work out a trade to officially send Melvin to the Bay Area, or the Padres might simply see this as an opportunity for a fresh start.  Melvin leaving for another job rather than being fired, as Baggarly and Lin note, would save the Padres the $4MM owed to the manager in salary for the 2024 season.  This tracks with the Padres’ overall plan to cut costs next season, ranging from both internal financial matters like a manager’s salary to player payroll.

If Melvin was to be hired by the Giants, San Diego would suddenly be in need of a new manager, though Lin and Baggarly cite bench coach Ryan Flaherty and coach Mike Shildt as possible candidates to take over the job.  Best known for his days as an Orioles utilityman, Flaherty has been on the Padres’ coaching staff for the last four seasons, and was promoted to bench coach prior to the 2023 campaign.  Prior to hiring Melvin, Preller’s previous two managerial hires were Andy Green and Jayce Tingler, who (like Flaherty) had never managed at the MLB level.

On the other hand, Shildt is a former skipper, managing the Cardinals from 2018-2021 and leading the club to postseason appearances in the last three of those seasons.  Shildt was rather surprisingly fired after the 2021 season due to what Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak described as “philosophical differences,” and the Padres then interviewed Shildt for the managerial vacancy that was eventually filled by Melvin.  San Diego ended up hiring Shildt anyway that winter for a player development position, and he moved into a coaching role this past season.

Marlins, Kim Ng Part Ways

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11:25 AM: According to a report from Jeff Passan of ESPN, the Marlins planned to hire a president of baseball operations this offseason. The new president would have worked above Kim Ng as the team’s top baseball executive. It was this plan of action that led Ng to turn down her side of her mutual option with the Marlins for 2024.

9:05 AM: The Marlins and general manager Kim Ng have parted ways, reports Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. It was reported about a month ago that her contract was set to expire after 2023 and it seems that a new deal will not be worked out to keep the relationship going. The club’s chairman Bruce Sherman released a statement on the matter, as relayed by Jordan McPherson of the Herald. It seems the two sides had a mutual option for 2024, with the club exercising their end but Ng rejecting hers.

“We thank Kim for her contributions during her time with our organization and wish her and her family well,” the statement reads. “We will immediately begin a thorough and extensive search for new leadership as we plan to continue to invest in the Marlins organization both on and off the field. We are committed to our fans and the South Florida community and look to build off the momentum of the great progress of this year.” Barry Jackson of the Herald relays that director of player development Brian Chattin will serve as interim general manager during that search.

The departing GM provided a statement to Tyler Kepner of The Athletic: “Last week, Bruce (Sherman) and I discussed his plan to reshape the Baseball Operations department. In our discussions, it became apparent that we were not completely aligned on what that should look like and I felt it best to step away. I wish to express my sincere gratitude and appreciation to the Marlins family and its fans for my time in South Florida. This year was a great step forward for the organization, and I will miss working with Skip and his coaches as well as all of the dedicated staff in baseball operations and throughout the front office. They are a very talented group and I wish them great success in the future.”

Ng, now 54, was hired to be the general manager of the Marlins in November of 2020, which was trailblazing on multiple fronts. Ng was the first woman to be a general manager for a men’s team in any of the four major North American sports and the first Asian-American GM in the history of Major League Baseball.

Since that time, the fortunes of the club have been gradually trending upwards. Though they made the expanded playoffs in the shortened 2020 season, the two full seasons prior to that saw them win 63 games in 2018 and then just 57 in 2019. The two seasons after Ng’s hiring saw them win 67 games in 2021 and then 69 contests last year. Here in 2023, they hired Skip Schumaker to take over as manager and were able to get all the way up to 84 victories, a strong enough season that they were able to make the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2003.

The club has had an admirable supply of starting pitching during recent years, with their rotation featuring the likes of Sandy Alcantara, Pablo López, Trevor Rogers and Eury Pérez at various times. Those pitchers were all acquired prior to Ng joining the club, but she added to that group by acquiring Jesús Luzardo from the A’s in 2021, sending impending free agent Starling Marte the other way. The surplus of starting pitching was then used to upgrade the lineup, with López traded to the Twins in exchange for Luis Arraez, who flirted with .400 for much of 2023 campaign. At this year’s deadline, the club added some more offense by acquiring Josh Bell and Jake Burger, both of whom finished strong as part of Miami’s playoff push.

Every baseball decision maker has their misses and that’s certainly true of Ng. The Avisaíl García deal looks like a big misstep at the moment and the Jacob Stallings deal hasn’t worked out so far. But on the whole, the results have been positive with Ng at the helm. They just had their best season in quite some time and did so with very little margin for error, financially speaking. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the player payroll has been one of the lowest in the league, with their Opening Day outlay coming in 28th, 26th and then 23rd in her three seasons.

The club clearly felt things were going well, since they triggered their end of the mutual option. It’s possible the two sides discussed an extension, but there hasn’t been much public information about that. It’s perhaps worth noting that there have been some changes in the suit-and-tie levels of the Marlins organization in recent years. The club was purchased by a group led by Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter in late 2017. Jeter served as the club’s CEO until early 2022, departing at that time while stating that “the vision for the future of the franchise is different than the one I signed up to lead.” It was reported after that announcement that a change in spending plans is what caused Jeter to walk away, though others also suggested the relationship between Sherman and Jeter soured for reasons beyond just the financials.

In her statement, Ng also spoke of not being aligned with Sherman in their discussions, much like Jeter. The exact nature of their disagreement isn’t known, but the result is that she won’t be back with the club and will now be free to pursue other opportunities.

It’s unknown if she wants to immediately jump into another job, but there are some current openings. The Red Sox fired Chaim Bloom and have been looking to hire a general manager in recent weeks. Billy Eppler walked away from the general manager position of the Mets recently, though that would be a different situation with David Stearns hired to be that club’s president of baseball operations. The job with the Mets would have far more financial freedom than Ng had in Miami but it’s unclear if she would want to be second-in-command after a successful run as a club’s top baseball decision maker. It’s possible that more gigs will open up if any other clubs decide to part ways with their front office people.

Her plans will surely become more clear in the weeks to come but it’s fair to expect that she will draw interest. The Marlins, meanwhile, will look for a new head of their baseball operations department. Whoever steps into that role will seemingly have to align their vision with Sherman’s and likely work with a limited budget, but there would certainly be some appeal in taking over a club that is just coming off a postseason appearance and in decent shape to compete again next year.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Brandon Woodruff Expected To Miss Most Of 2024 After Shoulder Surgery

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The Brewers announced to reporters, including Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, that right-hander Brandon Woodruff underwent surgery today to repair the anterior capsule in his right shoulder. He is expected to miss most or perhaps all of the upcoming season.

Woodruff, 30, has been an excellent part of the Milwaukee rotation for many years now, but the shoulder issues hounded him throughout 2023. He first landed on the injured list in April after just two starts, diagnosed with a subscapular strain in his right shoulder. He returned in August and made nine more starts down the stretch but was left off the club’s playoff roster with another shoulder issue. Now it seems he’ll have to go under the knife, which puts his 2024 season in jeopardy.

The news is obviously bad for the Brewers, given that Woodruff has been such a valuable part of the club. He has a career earned run average of 3.10 in 680 1/3 innings, posting a 28.9% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate and 42.7% ground ball rate. His tally of 10.3 wins above replacement from 2020 to 2022, via FanGraphs, was among the top 10 among all pitchers in baseball. Even with the shoulder injuries this year, he still managed an ERA of 2.28 in his 11 outings.

Subtracting that kind of performance from their rotation would be an unwelcome development at any time, but it’s especially awkward right now. Woodruff is about to enter his final season of arbitration control, set for a raise on the $10.8MM salary he had in 2023. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for $11.6MM in 2024, a modest bump after his diminished workload in the past year.

As a lower-spending team, the Brewers have occasionally decided to trade notable players as their arbitration salaries increased, perhaps most infamously the Josh Hader deal from 2022. This winter has long been seen as a point where they might have to consider a similar move, with Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames all set to make eight-figure deals in their respective final arbitration years. It had been argued that perhaps the club could consider trading one of Burnes or Woodruff to bolster another part of the roster while leaving the rotation still in relatively decent shape, saving some money in the process.

With Woodruff now set for such an extended absence, such a plan becomes less feasible and also gives the Brewers a difficult choice of whether or not to tender Woodruff a contract at all. An eight-figure deal for a pitcher who might miss the entire season wouldn’t be an ideal use of resources, especially for a club that operates without a lot of financial wiggle room. It would be possible to make him a qualifying offer after 2024, but that would be contingent him getting healthy enough to justify such an overture, meaning there would be a lot of risk in simply signing him for one year and hoping for the best. But letting an incredibly talented pitcher like Woodruff depart for nothing isn’t appealing either.

Perhaps he and the club could work out some kind of multi-year deal that would allow him to rehab the injury in 2024 and stay in Milwaukee beyond that. Players set for significant absences such as this often find two-year deals, with the signing team aware that they are unlikely to get much value in the first season. But Woodruff would be under no obligation to sign such a deal with the Brewers. If they weren’t willing to offer him a deal he felt was fair, he could wait and see if they non-tender him, which would make him a free agent and allow him to pursue such deals with any club.

The non-tender deadline isn’t until November 17, meaning he and the club have over a month to work something out on the contract side of things. But circling back to the on-field picture, it subtracts a key piece of the 2024 rotation. Without Woodruff, the group still figures to have Burnes at the front, followed by Freddy Peralta, but things get murky after that. Wade Miley is likely to wind up a free agent since mutual options are rarely triggered by both sides. That leaves Adrian Houser, Colin Rea, Eric Lauer, Robert Gasser and Caleb Boushley as some of the potential rotation members. Aaron Ashby could be in the mix as well but missed all of 2023 due to his own shoulder injury.

It’s possible the club finds an acceptable rotation in there but there’s no doubt it would be better with a healthy Woodruff. Even in the hypothetical scenario where Woodruff or Burnes were on the trading block, that would have at least allowed the club to address a different part of the team, making it a rough blow no matter how you look at it. The Brewers just won the Central division, making the playoffs for the fifth time in six years, but it might not be as easy next year. The Cubs, Pirates and Reds all showed signs that they are ready to emerge from their respective rebuilds and the Cardinals figure to be aggressive in bouncing back from a lost season.

Clayton Kershaw Undecided On Future

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The Dodgers season came to an unceremonious close last night. After being swept in the NL Division Series by the Diamondbacks, they’re headed into the offseason.

Each fall brings questions about whether Clayton Kershaw will be back for another year. Unsurprisingly, the three-time Cy Young winner wasn’t prepared to answer within the first couple hours of his team’s elimination. Kershaw told the L.A. beat postgame that he’s “not sure” what his playing future holds (relayed by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register).

Kershaw expanded upon that in a conversation with Andy McCullough of the Athletic, saying he expected to take several weeks before making a decision. Last year, he told reporters in late September that he was leaning towards playing in 2023. He agreed to a new deal with the Dodgers by November 10. Kershaw suggested to McCullough he won’t make his decision as quickly this time around.

Part of the calculus is his arm health. The 10-time All-Star landed on the injured list with shoulder soreness on July 3. He was out for around five weeks. While the Dodgers reinstated Kershaw on August 10, team officials conceded he still didn’t feel close to 100%. The southpaw told McCullough he could go for additional examination on the shoulder this offseason.

Kershaw had another stellar regular season despite the injury. He worked to a 2.46 ERA across 131 2/3 innings, striking out a strong 26.2% of opponents. Kershaw’s 7.6% walk rate was his highest in over a decade but still slightly better than league average. While his strikeout and walk numbers took a step back following his return from the injured list, he worked to a 2.23 ERA in his last eight regular season starts.

That production belied a notable downtick in the quality of his raw arsenal. Kershaw’s average fastball speed was a little above 91 MPH through the season’s first three months. His fastball sat at 90.2 MPH in August and was down to just 88.6 MPH on average in the final month. The slider was similarly slow, dropping from the 86-87 MPH range to 84.7 MPH in September.

The diminished arsenal caught up to him in October. The Dodgers’ flimsy rotation left them with little choice but to give Kershaw the ball for one of the first two starts against Arizona. He took the Dodger Stadium mound in Game 1 and was blitzed for six runs on six hits and a walk while recording just one out in an eventual 11-2 loss. The rest of the rotation didn’t fare much better. Bobby Miller surrendered three runs and didn’t get past the second inning in Game 2; Lance Lynn was tagged for four home runs in the third inning to take a 4-2 loss last night.

Addressing the starting staff will be a key priority for the L.A. front office. Julio Urías looks very unlikely to return amidst a domestic violence investigation. Tony Gonsolin could miss the whole year after a Tommy John procedure in August. Dustin May will be out until the middle of the season following flexor surgery. Lynn seems headed for free agency once the Dodgers decline an $18MM club option.

Walker Buehler should be ready to join Miller in two spots. Emmet Sheehan and Ryan Pepiot could vie for jobs, while Gavin Stone and Michael Grove are beyond them on the depth chart. There’s still promise with the group but they’ll need to add quite a bit more stability. If Kershaw decides to return for a 17th major league season, the Dodgers would certainly welcome him back on another one-year deal.

Kershaw signed a $20MM pact last winter. A similar salary would make sense if he continues playing. While the Dodgers could technically put forth a qualifying offer in the $20.5MM range, it’s hard to see that happening. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told reporters two offseasons ago the organization declined to qualify Kershaw to afford him more than 10 days to make a decision on his future. There’s no reason to believe that won’t be the case this fall.

Kyle Wright To Undergo Shoulder Surgery, Will Miss 2024 Season

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Kyle Wright has battled shoulder problems all season, resulting in the Braves placing the righty on the 60-day injured list just prior to the start of their playoff run.  Wright will miss all of the postseason, and unfortunately now all of the 2024 season as well, since manager Brian Snitker told reporters (including The Athletic’s David O’Brien) that Wright will undergo surgery to correct the problem.

Wright’s shoulder injuries started in Spring Training and resulted in a season-opening stint on the 15-day IL.  He made five starts before being forced back to the IL for ended up being more than a four-month layoff.  Returning to the Braves’ rotation in September, Wright pitched in four games — two as a starter, then two more as a reliever.  With the playoffs looming, Wright was being positioned for a role in Atlanta’s bullpen during the postseason, which he was happy to do in order to help the team win.  However, an MRI on Friday revealed more shoulder damage, and surgery now looks like a necessity to correct the problem once and for all.

The injury will essentially cost Wright two years of his career, as he’ll wrap his 2023 campaign with only 31 innings pitched.  It’s a brutal outcome for the 28-year-old, especially after it looked like he had finally established himself as a viable big league starter in 2022.

The fifth overall pick of the 2017 draft, Wright took a quick route to the big leagues and made his MLB debut in September 2018.  Through the 2018-21 seasons, Wright only pitched 70 Major League innings over 21 appearances (14 of them starts), posting a 6.56 ERA and simply not pitching well enough to stick in the rotation or even on the active roster.  The silver lining was a championship ring in 2021, as though he made only two appearances in the regular season, he landed a spot on the World Series roster and delivered a 1.59 ERA in 5 2/3 innings of relief work.

This set the stage for Wright’s breakout.  He posted a 3.19 ERA over 180 1/3 innings in 2022, leading the majors in wins with a 21-5 record.  Though he allowed a lot of hard contact and his walk and strikeout rates were only slightly above the league average, Wright’s 3.48 SIERA wasn’t much higher than his real-world ERA, and his 55.6% grounder rate only got a bit of batted-ball luck in the form of a .284 BABIP.

Wright’s 2023 numbers were basically a wash, as he had a 6.97 ERA over his 31 frames.  With this recent performance weighing more heavily than his 2022 season, Wright was projected to earn $1.4MM in 2024, his first year of arbitration eligibility.  Missing the 2024 season entirely would mean that Wright’s 2025 salary will either match or be fractionally beyond that $1.4MM figure, so even if he returns healthy and productive in 2025, he’d get a bump up to maybe something in the $4MM range for 2026.

In short, the shoulder injury has cost Wright millions of dollars, as he would’ve locked in some increasingly large salaries through his arb years if he’d kept pitching anything like his 2022 self.  Given the Braves’ penchant for extending their in-house players, a solid 2023 season might’ve been enough evidence to convince the front office to lock in a multi-year agreement with Wright, giving him an even bigger payday.

The one possible upside to these limited salaries is that Wright is still making so relatively little that the Braves will still tender him a contract, allowing Wright to rehab and then hopefully bounce back in good form by Opening Day 2025.  But obviously, losing Wright for a year has an impact on the Braves’ long-term pitching plans as well.

Spencer Strider is locked up on an extension through at least the 2028 season, making him the cornerstone of Atlanta’s rotation for the rest of the decade.  Beyond Strider, Max Fried is a free agent after the 2024 season, and 39-year-old Charlie Morton could potentially retire after this season.  Bryce Elder pitched generally well this year, though his numbers regressed significantly after a great first three months.  Rookies Jared Shuster, Dylan Dodd, Allan Winans, and AJ Smith-Shawver all made their big league debuts in 2023, but Smith-Shawver is the only one of the group who pitched decently well.  Michael Soroka didn’t pitch particularly well over 32 1/3 innings in his comeback season and was shut down in September due to forearm inflammation.  As for other injured starters, Kolby Allard only threw 12 1/3 innings due to oblique and shoulder nerve inflammation,and Huascar Ynoa missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery.

It’s a lot of depth but not necessarily a lot of proven quality, though getting by with a so-so-rotation might be okay for a Braves team with such a spectacular offense.  Going into 2024, Strider, Fried, and Elder seemingly have rotation spots locked, and if Morton returns, that’s still a solid top four.  Top prospect Hurston Waldrep might also be on the roster as early as Opening Day, so it’s possible Wright might’ve had a hard time getting back into the rotation (or even beating out the many other arms for the unofficial sixth starter job) even if he’d avoided surgery.  Many things could still shake out by the time Wright is ready in 2025, particularly if Fried did leave and if Morton did decide to finally hang up his glove.

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