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NPB’s Yokohama BayStars Post Shota Imanaga

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The Yokohama BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball formally posted top left-hander Shota Imanaga for Major League clubs on Monday, per the Kyodo News. It’s been known for months that Imanaga would be posted for big league clubs, but the timing of the move wasn’t clear until last Wednesday, when MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported that Imanaga would be posted today.

Once MLB approves the posting and notifies teams that Imanaga is indeed available (a formality), that will kick off a 45-day negotiation window. One week ago today, NPB’s Orix Buffaloes posted ace and reigning three-time Sawamura Award winner (NPB’s Cy Young equivalent) Yoshinobu Yamamoto for MLB clubs. His negotiation window officially commenced the following morning. Imanaga will likely follow an identical pattern, with his negotiation window formally opening Tuesday morning.

Imanaga, who turned 30 in September, just wrapped up a second straight season with a sub-3.00 ERA and his third in the past five seasons. He tossed 148 innings of 2.80 ERA ball for the BayStars in 2023, punching out 29.5% of his opponents against a sensational 3.8% walk rate. Since 2019, he’s posted a collective 2.79 earned run average, 26.2% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate. A 2022 no-hitter headlines that five-year run of excellence.

While he may not bet the unusually young power arm that his countryman Yamamoto is, Imanaga is nonetheless viewed as a potential mid-rotation starter in MLB. Back in September, MLBTR contributor Dai Takegami Podziewski noted that he’d added some life to his fastball and was sitting in the 92-93 mph range. He also has a splitter, curveball and cutter/slider, as examined in Brandon Tew’s breakdown of that 2022 no-hitter over at Sports Info Solutions

Any team that agrees to sign Imanaga will also be agreeing to pay a posting/release fee to the BayStars — the size of which is dependent on the size of Imanaga’s contract. In addition to the guaranteed money owed to the pitcher himself, his new team will need to pay a release fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $85MM contract for the lefty, which would come with a $13.875MM release fee owed to the BayStars on top of the contract itself. Future club/player options and earnings unlocked via incentives/bonuses are also subject to that system (and, in this hypothetical instance, would come with a 15% fee owed to the Yokohama club).

To this point, Imanaga has been linked to several MLB clubs — most recently the Cubs but also the Dodgers and Red Sox. It stands to reason that virtually every mid- or large-market club with a need for pitching will have some degree of interest. Imanaga has been one of the steadiest performers in Japan for the better part of a half decade and has thus been heavily scouted by MLB teams for quite some time now. He’ll likely be on the radar for other bigger-spending teams like the Mets, Yankees, Cardinals, Giants, Angels and Blue Jays (to name a few) over the next six-plus weeks.

Jung Hoo Lee Likely To Be Posted In Early December

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11:02PM: The KBO officially requested to Major League Baseball that Lee be posted (reporter Jiheon Pae had the news first, and thanks to MyKBO.net’s Dan Kurtz for the update).  This doesn’t necessarily speed up the timeline reported by Yoo earlier tonight, as Yoo reiterated that “with the Thanksgiving holiday, the process likely won’t begin in earnest until early December.”  Once Lee is posted, his window will only be 30 days, not 45.  The change to a 45-day posting period was made last offseason for NPB players, though it appears as though players coming from the KBO League have just the original 30 days to find a contract.

9:42PM: The Kiwoom Heroes gave Jung Hoo Lee’s medical records to KBO League officials yesterday, Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News reports (via X).  Between the usual review protocols between both the KBO and then MLB officials, Yoo figures that Lee will be officially posted for Major League teams in early December, factoring in a bit of delay given the Thanksgiving holiday.

That will officially open the floodgates on what is expected to be a brisk market for Lee’s services, with the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reporting that 20 teams are interested in the outfielder.  With this many teams potentially in the hunt, it certainly seems like Lee could match or exceed MLBTR’s projection of a five-year, $50MM contract, a prediction made due to both Lee’s impressive track record in South Korea and the fact that he is only 25 years old.  The Giants, Yankees, and Padres are the teams who have been publicly linked to Lee’s market to date.

While Lee’s expected price tag will be much lower than that of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the two players share some market similarities due to their young age of 25.  In theory, both have lots of prime years ahead and perhaps haven’t even reached their peak, whereas many players coming to the majors from Japan or South Korea are already in their late 20’s or into their 30’s by the time they’re posted, or by the time they amass enough service time for full free agency.

Because NPB is seen as a higher caliber of league than the KBO and because Yamamoto is seen as more of a true elite talent, his expected contract will naturally be higher than Lee’s, since some scouts aren’t entirely sold on how Lee’s bat will translate to much power against MLB pitching.  Some comps have been made to Masataka Yoshida but with a higher defensive ceiling, even if Lee might not stick in center field.  Lee’s platform year was also limited to 86 games due to season-ending ankle surgery, and while he should be healthy for Spring Training, he missed a critical chance to further showcase himself for any doubting evaluators.

In short, there’s plenty of room for variance on the kinds of offers that Lee might get, since there’s bound to be a wide range of opinions within a 20-team field.  Some teams might drop out of the running simply because they’ve made other outfield acquisitions in the interim, maybe before Lee’s posting window even opens.  Other teams who have a larger presence in international scouting will have more data on Lee, though that perhaps would work either for or against him depending on a club’s opinion.

As per the league posting rules, Lee will have 45 days to sign with a Major League team once his posting period opens.  If he can’t land a contract within those 45 days, he’ll return to the Heroes for the 2024 KBO season and have to wait until next winter for another chance at coming to the big leagues.  While it seems likely Lee will find an acceptable deal to come to North America, a return to South Korea can’t be entirely ruled out.  There could be lingering concerns over his health or perhaps just how he’ll adjust to the majors, or Lee and his agents at the Boras Corporation might not be satisfied with the offers on the table.

The Heroes will receive a posting fee tied to Lee’s eventual contract, with the new MLB club paying this fee on top of what they give to Lee himself.  The Heroes will get 20% of the first $25MM of a contract, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of anything beyond the $50MM threshold.  At MLBTR’s projection of a $50MM deal, the Heroes would get a $9.375MM posting fee.

D-backs Acquire Eugenio Suarez

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The D-backs and Mariners on Wednesday agreed to one of the first notable trades of the offseason, with Seattle sending third baseman Eugenio Suarez to Arizona in return for reliever Carlos Vargas and catcher Seby Zavala. Both teams have announced the deal. The trade gives the Diamondbacks the power-hitting third baseman they were looking for while the M’s pick up a controllable power arm, a backup catcher option and shed some meaningful salary.

Suarez, 32, has spent the past two seasons in Seattle after coming over from the Reds alongside Jesse Winker in the trade that sent Justin Dunn and Brandon Williamson to Cincinnati. While the trade was originally more about the Mariners absorbing the remainder of Suarez’s contract in order to acquire Winker on the heels of an excellent couple seasons at the plate, it was Suarez who rebounded and wound up providing the Mariners with the middle-of-the-order punch they’d been targeting.

Suarez clobbered 49 home runs back in 2019 — the second season of a seven-year, $66MM contract extension he’d signed with the Reds prior to the 2018 campaign. His bat tailed off considerably in 2020-21, however, and the Reds shopped him around as they looked to pare back payroll coming out of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, which was played without fans and came with substantial revenue losses for all 30 clubs.

Upon landing in Seattle, Suarez was largely back to form. While still quite strikeout prone, he popped 31 long balls in 2022 and posted an overall .236/.332/.459 batting line that was about 30% better than league average after adjusting for home park and league run-scoring environment (by measure of wRC+). His 2023 season wasn’t as successful. Suarez posted very similar batting average and OBP marks, but his power dropped off considerably. He complemented this past season’s .232/.323/.391 batting line and 22 homers with his best defensive showing in quite some time (at least in the estimation of Statcast, who credited him with 11 Outs Above Average).

Suarez’s overall approach at the plate, however, is a profile from which the Mariners have voiced a desire to move on. Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said earlier this month at the GM Meetings that he was looking to add high-contact hitters to his lineup — an understandable goal after his team’s 25.9% strikeout rate ranked second in all of Major League Baseball this season. Finding a trade partner for Suarez, in that specific regard at least, is addition by subtraction; Suarez fanned in 30.8% of his plate appearances in 2023 and 31.2% in 2022.

The 2024 season is the final guaranteed year on that $66MM contract for Suarez. He’s owed an $11MM salary plus at least a $2MM buyout on a $15MM option for the 2025 season. In all, the trade trims $13MM of guaranteed salary off the Mariners’ books. It also creates a notable hole at the hot corner, however. Recent trade acquisition Luis Urias is one potential option for the M’s, but he’s coming off a down season and was picked up in buy-low fashion. Presumably, a win-now club like the Mariners would want a more solid option at the position. Time will tell whether the Mariners find that player via free agency or, more likely (at least based on Dipoto’s track record), via trade.

As for the D-backs’ end of things, even Suarez’s slightly diminished 2023 production would be an improvement over their third basemen this past season. Arizona third basemen combined for a dismal .234/.303/.340 line in 2023. Suarez probably isn’t going to help out in terms of batting average, but he should bring more power to the position at a relatively reasonable price point of $13MM. Arizona now projects for about a $114MM payroll, per Roster Resource, which checks in $10MM shy of last year’s mark and about $18MM shy of their franchise-record level, established in 2018.

The trade fills at least one immediate need for the Mariners, who watched Tom Murphy become a free agent at season’s end. Zavala gives them an option to replace him as Cal Raleigh’s backup behind the plate.

The 30-year-old Zavala has tallied 514 plate appearances in the big leagues but mustered a tepid .210/.275/.347 slash in that output. While he’s shown above-average power at times in the minors — including a 20-homer showing in 82 games of Triple-A ball in 2019 — Zavala’s output at the plate has been undercut by his own prolific strikeout rates. He’s gone down on strikes in 35.8% of his Major League plate appearances to this point in his career. He won’t come to the plate nearly as often as Suarez, however, so even though Zavala has his own contact issues, the swap could still prove to bolster the team’s overall contact skills, as has ostensibly been one of their goals.

Furthermore, Zavala grades out as a strong defender behind the dish. Statcast rates him as above-average in terms of blocking balls in the dirt, and he’s regularly drawn plus framing grades both at FanGraphs and via Statcast. Zavala’s 14% caught-stealing rate this past season was well shy of the league-average 20%, as is his career 17% mark. He nabbed a roughly average 24% of would-be base thieves in 2022, however, and he’s hardly the only backstop who struggled to control the running game in 2023, when MLB’s new rules regarding pickoffs and slightly larger bases dramatically increased stolen bases throughout the league.

Zavala doesn’t have any minor league options remaining, so he’ll have to open the season on the Mariners’ active roster or else be traded or placed on outright waivers. It’s always possible they add another backup catcher to supplant him, but for now he stands as the clear favorite to back up Raleigh heading into next season.

The piece of the trade with larger appeal for Seattle could very well be the flamethrowing Vargas, who made his MLB debut with Arizona in 2023. Vargas pitched in just 4 2/3 innings (allowing three runs) and had suspect surface-level numbers in Triple-A Reno: 7.02 ERA, 17% strikeout rate, 15.1% walk rate. Grisly as those numbers may be at fist glance, however, there’s also a fair bit of intrigue around the young righty.

Vargas only just turned 24 last month, and in his brief time on the D-backs’ big league roster, he averaged 99.4 mph on his four-seamer and 98.8 mph on his sinker. Per Statcast, only seven of the 851 pitchers who tossed at least one inning last year averaged a better mark on their four-seamer and sinker. Vargas is one of the game’s hardest-throwing pitchers, and his sinker produced a massive 59% ground-ball rate in Triple-A.

When considering the substantial command issues that Vargas has shown not only in 2023 but throughout his professional career — he’s walked 11.5% of opponents in his overall minor league career — he’s clearly something of a project. That said, he’s also controllable for at least six seasons and still has a minor league option remaining for the 2024 campaign. The Mariners could see this as a similar bet to the one they made on Andres Munoz, who was a similarly live-armed but unproven young reliever with command issues when they picked him up from the Padres.

As it stands, the subtraction of Suarez still weakens the Seattle roster overall, so if there’s no subsequent move to add another third base option or at least to reallocate the $13MM in savings, this will still be widely viewed as a salary dump — even if there’s some legitimate long-term potential with Vargas. But the offseason is also quite young, and both the free-agent and trade markets have various options to consider at the hot corner or at second base, if Seattle is comfortable sliding another former Diamondback, Josh Rojas, over to third base.

A deal for Matt Chapman would be wildly uncharacteristic for Dipoto, who hasn’t signed a free-agent hitter to a multi-year deal since taking the reins in Seattle, but the market offers some more affordable options such as Gio Urshela and Justin Turner. The trade market is light on pure third basemen but has several shortstops, second basemen and/or multi-position names who could fit into the Seattle infield: Willy Adames, Jonathan India, Jorge Polanco, Kyle Farmer and perhaps Brendan Donovan among them.

Given the strong young core in Seattle and this past season’s narrow miss of the playoffs, there’s little reason to think the team is preparing for a notable step back. Dipoto has made a name for himself as perhaps the most active baseball operations leader in the game when it comes to the trade market, and is stands to reason that further moves will follow. With Suarez in Arizona, the M’s now project for a payroll around $133MM, per Roster Resource, which is about $7MM shy of last year’s total and about $25MM shy of their franchise record. There should be resources to further augment the roster in the days and weeks ahead.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale first reported that the Mariners and D-backs had agreed to a trade involving Zavala and other players. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times broke the news that Suarez and Vargas were in the swap.

Nearly Half The League Has Reached Out To Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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As the best pitcher in Japan who’s been made available to MLB teams at just 25 years of age, Orix Buffaloes right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto has always been expected to command an aggressive bidding war. Yamamoto’s 45-day negotiation window with MLB clubs opened yesterday morning, and he’s unsurprisingly drawn widespread early interest.

Agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman, who’s representing Yamamoto, told the Kyodo News last night that he’s already heard from 11 to 14 teams. Yamamoto’s negotiation window officially opened yesterday morning.

“This is by far the player with the most interested teams that I have ever seen at the beginning of free agency,” said Wolfe, an executive vice president of one of the sport’s largest agencies. As one would expect, Wolfe indicated that Yamamoto isn’t approaching free agency with any restrictions based on geography. (Even if Yamamoto does have some specific geographic preferences, those would likely be kept close to the vest — if only as a means of retaining leverage in talks.)

The list of teams already linked to Yamamoto in free agency nearly outnumbers the list of teams who’ve not yet had public ties to him. The Cardinals, Phillies (even after re-signing Aaron Nola), Diamondbacks, Tigers, Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Cubs, Giants, Red Sox and Dodgers have all been reported to have interest in Yamamoto. That’s 11 teams right there, and it’s surely not a comprehensive list. Yamamoto figures to draw interest from contending clubs and non-contenders alike, given the rarity with which a free agent of this caliber reaches the market at such a young age. Even a team eyeing 2025-26 as a more realistic range for competing could outbid the field for Yamamoto and know that he’d be squarely in his prime years when that window for contention is more earnestly open.

Yamamoto has been evaluated extensively by MLB scouts, with the consensus being that he’s a legitimate No. 1 or No. 2 caliber arm in a big league rotation. Between that ceiling, his age and his brilliant track record in Japan, he’s expected to command the largest contract ever for an NPB pitcher making the jump to MLB — perhaps a deal in excess of $200MM (plus the requisite posting fee). Yamamoto has won three straight Sawamura Awards in Japan — NPB’s equivalent of MLB’s Cy Young Award — and just posted a career-best 1.21 ERA in 2023. He’s logged a sub-2.00 ERA in four of his past five seasons while punching out better than 27% of his opponents against a tidy 5.7% walk rate.

Any team that signs Yamamoto will owe a posting/release fee to the Buffaloes. That fee is equivalent to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM (a combined total of $9.375MM), plus 15% of any money thereafter. Using MLBTR’s predicted nine-year, $225MM deal as a hypothetical example, that contract would come with a $35.625MM fee — a total outlay of $260.25MM for the signing team. Given Yamamoto’s youth and the substantial demand for him, it wouldn’t be at all surprising if any deal wound up containing an opt-out a few years into the pact, thus allowing him to return to free agency in his late 20s after having the potential to establish himself as a genuine top-of-the-rotation arm in the Majors.

Shota Imanaga Likely To Be Posted By Monday

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The Yokohama BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball are planning to post left-hander Shota Imanaga for Major League teams sometime between now and Monday, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. While prior reporting had indicated that Imanaga might not be posted until fellow NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto had already signed, it instead appears that Imanaga will be posted about a week after Yamamoto. That creates some overlap in the two posting periods but also gives Imanaga at least a few days for teams that miss out on Yamamoto to explore the possibility of instead signing him.

While both Imanaga and Yamamoto are highly regarded, Imanaga is widely expected to sign the lesser contract in terms of both years and dollars. That’s due partially to the fact that Yamamoto is regarded as the superior pitcher, of course, but the primary reason for Yamamoto being projected to sign a deal more than twice as lucrative as Imanaga is the age gap between the two. Yamamoto just turned 25 in August; Imanaga turned 30 in September.

As such, Imanaga’s age is more in line with that of standard Major League free agents, who tend to reach the open market around 30-31 years of age. There are exceptions, but particularly among pitchers, a player reaching the market in his mid-to-late 20s is quite rare.

Although Imanaga doesn’t have the bonus allure of being an atypically young free agent, he nonetheless figures to command a weighty long-term deal himself. The southpaw’s 2023 season featured 148 innings of 2.80 ERA ball — his second straight sub-3.00 mark and his third in five years. (The two other seasons “only” saw Imanaga post marks of 3.08 and 3.23.) Imanaga fanned 29.5% of his opponents this past season against a superlative 3.8% walk rate.

Dating back to 2019, Imanaga boasts a 26.2% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate in addition to a cumulative 2.79 earned run average — including a no-hitter in the 2022 season. He isn’t necessarily overpowering in terms of velocity, though MLBTR contributor Dai Takegami Podziewski noted late in the year that he’d added some life to his heater and was averaging between 92-93 mph during the 2023 season. He pairs that heater with a splitter, curveball and cutter/slider hybrid, as noted in Brandon Tew’s breakdown of that 2022 no-hitter over at Sports Info Solutions.

Whenever Imanaga is posted, it will mark the start of a 45-day window for him to negotiate with all 30 MLB clubs. Any team that agrees to sign Imanaga will also be agreeing to pay a release fee to the BayStars — the size of which is dependent on the size of Imanaga’s contract. In addition to the guaranteed money owed to the pitcher himself, his new team will need to pay a release fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $85MM contract for the lefty, which would come with a $13.875MM release fee owed to the BayStars on top of the contract itself. Future club/player options and earnings unlocked via incentives/bonuses are also subject to that system (and, in this hypothetical instance, would come with a 15% fee owed to the Yokohama club).

To this point, Imanaga has been linked to several MLB clubs — most recently the Cubs but also the Dodgers and Red Sox. It stands to reason that virtually every mid- or large-market club with a need for pitching will have some degree of interest. Imanaga has been one of the steadiest performers in Japan for the better part of a half decade and has thus been heavily scouted by MLB teams for quite some time now. He’ll likely be on the radar for other bigger-spending teams like the Mets, Yankees, Cardinals, Giants, Angels and Blue Jays (to name a few) over the next six to seven weeks.

Cardinals Sign Kyle Gibson To One-Year Deal

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The Cardinals announced the signing of Kyle Gibson to a one-year deal with a club option for 2025. The veteran right-hander will reportedly be guaranteed $12MM; the option value is still unreported. Gibson is a client of Rowley Sports Management.

Gibson, 36, spent 2023 with the Orioles on a one-year, $10MM deal. He took the ball 33 times for the O’s and logged 192 innings with an earned run average of 4.73. It’s possible that he deserved better results than that, as his 69.7% strand rate was a bit below average. He struck out just 19.5% of batters faced but limited walks to a 6.8% clip and kept 48.9% of balls in play on the ground. His 4.13 FIP and 4.40 SIERA paint a slightly more flattering portrait than his ERA.

Since as far back as August, Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has been open about the club’s desire to add three starters to the rotation. That was in order to replace the departures of Adam Wainwright, who is now retired, and Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery, who were traded at the deadline and are now free agents. There’s also some uncertainty with the in-house options, as Steven Matz has dealt with injuries and inconsistency of late while depth option Dakota Hudson was non-tendered last week when the club failed to find a trade for him. All that left Miles Mikolas and a heap of questions as the on-paper rotation.

But that was prior to this week. The Cards added another veteran innings eater yesterday, agreeing with Lance Lynn on a one-year deal. Between Lynn and now Gibson, it seems the club is starting out by building a foundation of reliability, more floor than ceiling. In each of the past nine full seasons, Gibson has made at least 25 starts, with 2016 being the only one of those seasons where he didn’t get to 29. He also made 12 starts in the shortened 2020 campaign. He’s only been on the injured list three times since his major league debut, dealing with a right shoulder strain in 2016, ulcerative colitis in 2019 and then a right groin strain in 2021. It’s a fairly similar situation with Lynn. He had knee surgery in 2022 and was limited to 21 starts, but apart from that, he’s made at least 28 starts in each full season dating back to 2012.

Lynn is coming off a down year, having allowed 44 home runs, leading to an ERA of 5.73. However, it’s possible that was a one-year blip, as he had a mark of 3.99 the year before, 2.69 in 2021 and 3.74 for his career. Gibson’s career ERA is 4.54 and he’s never been better than 3.62 in a single season, but as mentioned, his ability to take the mound every five days is quite strong. His 1,645 innings pitched dating back to 2014 are the fourth-most in baseball, trailing only Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke.

Since the offseason began, the Cards have been connected to some of the top free agent arms available, such as Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Some fans may be disappointed by the additions of Lynn and Gibson on one-year deals but there’s nothing to indicate the door to a blockbuster has been closed by these moves. Gray and Yamamoto are still out there, as are plenty of other impactful starters. The Cards, meanwhile, should still have the money and opportunity for another pitcher.

The 2024 payroll is now set to be about $170MM, per Roster Resource, though some trades could perhaps drop that down a bit. The club is expected to look into moving a position player such as Tyler O’Neill, who has a projected salary of $5.5MM, or perhaps Dylan Carlson and his $1.8MM projection. Their franchise high payroll was last year’s $177MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but it’s possible they will give themselves a bit more wiggle room in order to get over their lackluster 2023 season.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that Gibson was signing with the Cardinals on a one-year deal with a 2025 club option. Jesse Rogers of ESPN was first with the $12MM guarantee.

Cardinals Sign Lance Lynn To One-Year Deal

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November 21: The Cards have now made it official, announced they signed Lynn to a one-year deal with a club option for 2025.

November 20: The Cardinals and right-hander Lance Lynn are in agreement on a one-year contract with a club option for the 2025 season, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. Lynn, a client of Headline Sports Group, will earn around $10MM on the contract, which is still pending the completion of a physical. Jon Heyman of the New York Post puts the guarantee at $11MM, noting that there’s a $10MM salary in 2024 and a $1MM buyout on the 2025 option. The deal also contains $3MM in potential performance incentives. The option is valued at $10MM, per the Associated Press. That value would escalate by $1MM apiece if Lynn tallies 170 and 190 innings next season.

It’s a homecoming for the 36-year-old Lynn, whom the Cardinals selected with the No. 39 overall pick in the 2008 draft. The 6’5″ righty spent the first six seasons of his career in St. Louis, solidifying himself as a quality big leaguer by throwing 977 2/3 innings of 3.38 ERA ball. Lynn reached free agency on the heels of that strong run but did so fresh off the shakiest strikeout, walk and home run rates of his career in 2016. He rejected a qualifying offer from the Cards that offseason and found a tepid market, ultimately landing with the Twins on a one-year deal that was agreed upon after spring training had commenced.

Things in Minnesota didn’t go that well, but Lynn rebounded to an extent following a trade to the Yankees and reinvigorated his career in a subsequent four-year stint between the Rangers and White Sox. From 2019-22, Lynn was one of the American League’s most durable and best starters. He pitched 571 innings of 3.42 ERA ball in that time, whiffing 26.8% of his opponents against a 6.2% walk rate. That success came under a three-year, $30MM deal originally agreed to with Texas and a two-year, $38MM extension signed with Chicago following a trade to the ChiSox.

The second season of that extension, this most recent year, marked the worst season of Lynn’s lengthy career. Lynn was baseball’s most homer-prone pitcher in 2023, surrendering an average of 2.16 long balls per nine frames (yielding 44 overall). He remained healthy and ate up plenty of innings, totaling 183 2/3 frames between the Sox and the Dodgers, but his 5.73 earned run average on the year was the second-highest of any qualified starter, leading only Kansas City’s Jordan Lyles.

Despite that career-worst showing, Lynn will still secure an eight-figure guarantee. The Cardinals, in need of at least three starting pitchers this winter, surely value Lynn’s durability and the bulk innings he can bring to the table. They’re also likely heartened by the fact that even through all of his home run woes, Lynn still posted an above-average 23.8% strikeout rate and a solid 8.3% walk rate. The veteran righty’s 12.9% swinging-strike rate remained well above the league average for a starting pitcher as well, and he also induced chases on pitches off the plate at a slightly above-average 32.4% rate. Lynn still has good spin on his four-seamer and cutter as well.

While there are plenty of positive indicators, there’s no sugarcoating the bottom-line results in 2023. It was a poor season from Lynn through and through, and he’ll need to rebound in a substantial way in order to have a meaningful impact on the Cardinals’ rotation. Given the Cardinals’ dire need for help on the starting staff, St. Louis fans were understandably hoping for a clearer upgrade with their first addition.

That said, the Cards still have at least two holes to fill on the staff. If Lynn ends up being the “third” of the three additions to the rotation this offseason, the overall outlook will be much improved. Adding a durable innings eater who can still miss bats and limit walks to round out the fourth or fifth spot in the rotation is perfectly sensible, particularly on a one-year contract with a club option. If the team’s forthcoming additions are more in this same vein, however, it’ll be fair to question the overall direction of the offseason. As with all early-offseason transactions, it’s impossible to glean full context; the overarching picture will be much clearer come spring training.

Lynn’s return to the Cardinals pushes their projected 2024 payroll to a bit more than $159MM, per Roster Resource. The Cards closed out the 2023 season with a payroll in the $178MM range, and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has indicated that he does not expect payroll to rise substantially. That, however, is not an indication that the Cardinals only have about $20MM of flexibility with which to work. The Cards tendered contracts to both Dylan Carlson and Tyler O’Neill — both of whom stand as obvious trade candidates.

O’Neill is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.5MM in 2024, while Carlson is projected to earn $1.8MM. Further, the Cardinals shed several meaningful salaries at the 2023 trade deadline but had been budgeting for a larger payroll prior to their summer sale. In all likelihood, there’s somewhere closer to $40MM with which to work — even after agreeing to terms with Lynn — and that number could further change a bit pending the outcome of various trade scenarios.

Padres Name Mike Shildt Manager

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11:30am: The Padres have announced the hiring of Shildt on a two-year contract.

“Mike is a proven winner as a manager at the Major League level, and he brings over two decades of experience in professional baseball to the position,” president of baseball ops A.J. Preller said in a prepared statement. “In his time here, Mike has displayed a strong baseball intellect, a passion for teaching the game, and has established relationships with players and staff at both the minor and Major League levels. We believe that Mike is the right person to lead the Padres forward in our continued pursuit of a World Series championship.”

10:48am: The Padres are set to name former Cardinals skipper Mike Shildt their new manager, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. Dennis Lin of The Athletic adds that a formal announcement is expected today. Shildt has spent the past two seasons in the Padres’ player development department.

The Padres somewhat surprisingly wound up with a managerial vacancy this offseason after allowing now-former skipper Bob Melvin to interview with the Giants, who ultimately hired him and signed him to a three-year contract. He’d previously been under contract with the Padres through the 2024 season.

Shildt, 55, beat out a field of reported candidates including former Angels skipper Phil Nevin, current Padres bench coach Ryan Flaherty and Angels infield coach Benji Gil. Former Yankees bench coach, who was hired as the Mets’ manager earlier this month, also interviewed for the Padres post. San Diego had some level of interest in recently ousted Cubs skipper David Ross, though it’s not clear whether he ultimately interviewed for the position.

Shildt’s own ouster in St. Louis was something of a shocking development a couple years back. He’d been viewed as an extension candidate late in the season as the Cardinals rattled off 17 consecutive wins to surge back into postseason contention, and there’d been no public indication that Shildt’s job was in jeopardy. However, Cards president of baseball ops John Mozeliak cited “philosophical differences” for the rationale behind the move, with additional reported details filtering out in the days and weeks following the decision.

The dismissal of Shildt was particularly surprising given the Cardinals’ success under his watch. His St. Louis predecessor, Mike Matheny, was fired midseason in 2018 after a 47-46 start to the year. The Cards went 41-28 under Shildt to close out that season, and his next three years produced records of 91-71, 30-28 (during the pandemic-shortened season) and 90-72. Shildt was named the National League Manager of the Year in 2019 and finished third in 2021. Overall, he was 252-199 as the Cardinals’ skipper.

Shildt will now get a second crack at managing in the big leagues. His appointment in San Diego will somewhat incredibly make him the fourth full-time Padres manager in a span of just six years (and fifth if you include interim skipper Rod Barajas, who finished out the 2019 season after Andy Green was let go). San Diego hasn’t had a manager last more than three full seasons on the job since Bud Black helmed the club from 2007-15.

In addition to his time as the Cardinals’ manager, Shildt has a lengthy background in a baseball career that began as a scout in the early 2000s. He eventually was named a coach in the low levels of the Cardinals’ system, slowly rising through the ranks and holding a variety of coaching titles as he climbed the organizational ladder. The Cards added him to their Major League staff as Matheny’s bench coach in 2017. He’ll bring more than two decades of experience in scouting, coaching and player development to the table as the new dugout leader in San Diego.

Braves Sign Reynaldo Lopez

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The Braves announced Monday morning that they’ve signed right-hander Reynaldo Lopez to a three-year contract that will guarantee him $30MM. The CAA client will be paid $4MM in 2024 and $11MM in both 2025 and 2026. There’s an $8MM club option for the 2027 season with a $4MM buyout.

Lopez becomes the fifth name added to the Braves’ bullpen mix since their season ended, joining re-signed righties Joe Jimenez (three years, $26MM) and Pierce Johnson (two years, $14.25MM) and trade acquisitions Aaron Bummer and Jackson Kowar. Interestingly, however, Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets that the Braves will have Lopez prepare as a starting pitcher this winter.

While the club isn’t necessarily penciling Lopez into the 2024 rotation, the Braves believe he can have success in either role and ramping him down from starting to relieving is of course easier than the inverse. Lopez’s specific role may not be determined until the spring, but it’s certainly notable that there’s at least a chance he’ll get another look as a starter with his new club.

Lopez, 30 in January, has plenty of experience in both roles but hasn’t had much success as a starting pitcher. Once one of the sport’s top pitching prospects, he went from the Nationals to the White Sox alongside Lucas Giolito and Dane Dunning in the 2016 trade sending Adam Eaton back to Washington. While he gave the White Sox 32 starts and 188 innings of 3.91 ERA ball in 2018, he did so with shaky peripherals. On the whole, Lopez carries a lifetime 3.01 ERA out of the bullpen but a much rockier 4.73 mark as a starter.

Lopez’s career took off, in earnest, with a full-time move to the bullpen — a role in which he’s excelled for the past two seasons, albeit in different ways. The flamethrowing righty had a rough start in ’22 but was one of the sport’s most dominant bullpen arms over that season’s final four months, logging a 1.54 ERA, 28.8% strikeout rate and 3.1% walk rate from early June through season’s end. Overall, his 2022 campaign ended with a sterling 2.76 ERA, a slightly above-average strikeout rate (24.8%) and an elite walk rate (4.3%).

In 2023, Lopez’s run prevention was again strong (3.27 ERA), but he took a different route to get there. Brandishing a fastball that was now averaging a blistering 98.4 mph — a 1.3 mph increase over the prior season’s already-strong 97.1 mph — Lopez punched out a huge 29.9% of his opponents. However, his 12.2% walk rate was nearly triple that of the prior season. He all but abandoned his curveball, throwing it at just a 1.2% clip (after 7.2% in 2022).

The 2023 version of Lopez was effectively a two-pitch pitcher: blazing fastball and hard slider (with a seldom-used changeup and curveball). He has, however, had seasons where he’s thrown both his change and his hook at a 20% clip or higher, so there’s certainly a diverse enough collection of pitches in his arsenal to succeed as a starter — if the Braves can coax better and more consistent results from his secondary offerings. If Lopez were to work as a starter, it’s only natural to think his fastball velocity would drop a tick, but he’s still have well above-average heat regardless.

To an extent, it’s possible that Lopez’s ultimate usage in 2024 depends on the remainder of Atlanta’s offseason. As things stand, the Braves’ rotation includes Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder. There’ll be competition for that fifth spot, likely including Lopez but also featuring top prospect AJ Smith-Shawver, veteran Ian Anderson (who’ll be returning from Tommy John surgery), southpaw Dylan Dodd and righty Huascar Ynoa. The Braves have been linked to some free agents of note thus far, and if they succeed in signing Sonny Gray or acquiring another veteran starter, that’d likely push Lopez more firmly into the bullpen.

If Lopez ends up in his more familiar bullpen role, he’ll join a comically deep group. In addition to the aforementioned Jimenez, Johnson and Bummer, the Braves will deploy Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter and Tyler Matzek in what’s shaping up to be one of the most experienced and most talented collection of relief arms in the Majors.

Lopez’s $4MM salary for the 2024 season pushes the Braves’ payroll up to around $207MM, per Roster Resource’s projections. However, while its backloaded nature spares Atlanta some bottom-line payroll in the upcoming season, the contract still comes with a much heftier $10MM luxury-tax hit, as all luxury calculations are based on a deal’s average annual value.

The $10MM AAV on Lopez’s contract pushes the Braves squarely into luxury-tax territory, as they’re now at about $241.6MM of luxury considerations — comfortably north of this year’s $237MM luxury barrier. They also paid the luxury tax last season, meaning their penalty levels will rise. Rather than a 20% dollar-for-dollar tax, they’ll now pay a 30% tax (with increasing penalties if they surpass the threshold by more than $20MM total). They’re also in line for even harsher penalties come 2025, as third-time payors face even steeper rates of taxation.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto Officially Posted By Orix Buffaloes

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November 20: As expected, Yamamoto has been officially posted, as relayed by Joel Sherman of The New York Post. The posting window begins a 7 am Central on November 21 and goes until 4 pm Central on January 4.

November 17: Yoshinobu Yamamoto is one of the offseason’s most talked-about free agents, and he’ll finally be fully available to Major League teams in a few days’ time.  ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (via X) that Yamamoto is “expected to be posted” this coming Monday, so his negotiation window to speak with MLB teams will officially begin on November 21.

It is widely expected that Yamamoto will shatter the record for the largest contract ever given to a player coming from Nippon Professional Baseball to the majors for the first time, with MLB Trade Rumors projecting a nine-year, $225MM deal for the right-hander.  Because Yamamoto is only 25 years old, it is quite possible that he might seek an opt-out clause or two in his eventual contract, allowing him the chance to re-enter the market in a few years’ time in search of an even larger deal after he has established himself as a frontline Major League pitcher.

Yamamoto has been utterly dominant over his seven seasons with the Buffaloes, posting a 1.82 ERA over 897 innings.  With a 26.43% strikeout rate and small walk (5.9%) and home run (1.03%) rates, Yamamoto’s numbers are pretty eye-popping across the board, leaving scouts and evaluators with little doubt that he’ll be at least a solid big league pitcher with a clear ceiling as a potential ace.  Since Yamamoto is so young, there should be plenty of prime years left, and there is much less wear-and-tear on his arm than most other premium free agent pitchers in history, considering how it is very rare for players to be available to the open market at age 25.

Technically, Yamamoto is not a completely free agent yet, as per the rules of the MLB/NPB posting system.  Come Tuesday, Yamamoto will have 45 days to negotiate with Major League teams, giving him until January 4 to sign a contract to come to North America.  Yamamoto would return to the Buffaloes for the 2024 NPB season if no deal is reached within that 45-day window, yet with so much interest in his services, it certainly feels like he has pitched his last game in a Buffaloes uniform for the foreseeable future.

The Buffaloes are entitled to a posting fee once Yamamoto signs, so a Major League team will have to pay up some extra money beyond whatever they give to Yamamoto himself.  The Buffaloes will receive 20% of the contract’s first $25MM in guaranteed money, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and then 15% on anything beyond the $50MM mark.  Should Yamamoto land that projected $225MM deal, then, that would mean a $35.625MM posting fee to the Buffaloes — not a bad payday, yet a bittersweet one considering that the Osaka-based team is losing such a proven star.

The Phillies, Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Tigers, Cardinals, Cubs, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Giants, Padres, and Dodgers have all been linked to Yamamoto to varying degrees, whether it has been club officials or scouts on hand in Japan to see the righty pitch in person, or offseason reports indicating that Yamamoto is high on a team’s list of priorities.  It seems entirely possible that Yamamoto’s list of suitors could be even longer, given the somewhat unique opportunity to sign an elite pitcher at such a young age.

Negotiations will begin in earnest Tuesday, with quite a bit of impact on the overall pitching market.  Because Yamamoto’s free agency would come with a hard deadline, it is possible some of the other top arms on the market might wait until after he signs, to better gauge the field of remaining suitors.  With so many teams in need of pitching, missing out on Yamamoto could make teams more eager (and thus more willing to spend big) to acquire one of the other pitchers left.  Some reports have suggested that Shota Imanaga, his representatives, and NPB’s Yokohama DeNA Baystars might wait until after Yamamoto is off the market to go ahead and start Imanaga’s own posting window.

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