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Twins To Exercise Options On Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco

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The Twins are exercising their club options on outfielder Max Kepler and infielder Jorge Polanco, reports Dan Hayes of the Athletic (X link). Kepler will make $10MM, while Polanco is set for a $10.5MM salary.

Both moves were expected. Kepler started slowly but found his form in the second half. He finished the season with a .260/.332/.484 line with 24 home runs across 491 plate appearances. That’s well above-average offense, his best season since a 36-homer showing in 2019. He’s also a strong defender in right field, making the $10MM price point a bargain. He’ll be a free agent for the first time in his career next offseason.

Polanco was limited to 80 games by injury but turned in a characteristically solid season. The switch-hitting infielder ran a .255/.335/.454 line through 343 trips to the plate. Primarily a second baseman, Polanco moved to third base later in the year in deference to hot-hitting rookie Edouard Julien. The Twins have Royce Lewis at the hot corner, leaving Polanco in a multi-positional role.

Despite the infield depth, there was never much question about Minnesota exercising the option. A $10.5MM salary is strong value for a player who would have been this year’s top free agent middle infielder had the Twins cut him loose. His contract also contains a $12.5MM team option for 2025. That comes with a $750K buyout that is now guaranteed.

The moves add an expected $20.5MM to Minnesota’s player payroll, which now sits around $88MM. That’s well below this year’s Opening Day estimate of approximately $154MM. The Twins have a fair bit of spending room and could certainly find trade interest in Kepler and/or Polanco if they were to entertain dealing from their position player depth.

Nelson Cruz To Retire

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Nelson Cruz revealed on the Adam Jones Podcast that he is planning to retire from playing after an upcoming stint in the Dominican Winter League.

Nelson Cruz | Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY SportsCruz, now 43, was something of a late bloomer but still went on to have an incredibly long and productive career in the big leagues. He didn’t fully establish himself as an everyday big league player until 2009. That was technically his “age-28 season”, but he turned 29 on July 1, just after the standard June 30 cutoff for such distinctions. He had some limited looks in the big leagues with the Brewers and Rangers from 2005 to 2008 but that 2009 season saw him bust out with 33 home runs and 20 stolen bases for Texas.

He would follow that with 22 and 29 home runs in the next two years, helping the Rangers reach the World Series in each campaign, though they ultimate lost on both occasions. He continued serving as a potent slugger for a time but that was put on pause when he was connected to the Biogenesis performance-enhancing drugs scandal, receiving a 50-game suspension in August of 2013.

He reached free agency after that campaign and the Rangers gave him a qualifying offer of over $14MM, which he turned down. The draft pick forfeiture tied to that QO and his PED situation led to him lingering on the open market until late February, eventually signing with the Orioles for one year and $8MM, well below the QO he turned down.

He had a monster year for the O’s in 2014, launching 40 home runs and helping that club reach the American League Championship Series. The O’s then gave him a $15.3MM qualifying offer, as players were still allowed to receive multiple QOs at that time. The limit of one per career did not come into place until the 2017-2021 Collective Bargaining Agreement. Cruz turned the QO down again but fared far better in this trip to free agency, landing a four-year, $57MM deal with the Mariners.

Though he had been an outfielder earlier in his career, he slid more into a full-time designated hitter role over the course of that deal with Seattle. The club likely didn’t mind as he continued mashing, with 163 home runs in that four-year span. He then continued to produce in a similar fashion after joining the Twins, launching 41 more homers in 2019 then 16 in the shortened 2020 season.

He was still crushing baseballs through the first half of 2021, but his production slid after a midseason trade from the Twins to the Rays. He signed one-year deals with the Nationals and Padres for the past two seasons but his offensive production slid to below par. Since he was into his 40s and limited to DH duties only, it became tougher to roster him and the Padres released him in July.

Cruz retires having played in 2,055 regular season games, hitting 464 home runs in that time. His finishes with a batting line of .274/.343/.513, which translates into a wRC+ of 128, indicating he was 28% better than the league average hitter. He made seven All-Star teams, won four Silver Sluggers, a Roberto Clemente Award and various other honors. He represented the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic on four separate occasions, winning the 2013 tournament. His Baseball Reference page indicates he earned over $140MM in his career. We at MLB Trade Rumors salute Cruz for his many accomplishments and wish him the best of luck for whatever awaits him in his post-playing days.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Qualifying Offer To Be $20.325MM For 2023-24 Offseason

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The qualifying offer value is going to be $20.325MM for this offseason, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. It had been previously reported that it would land “around” $20.5MM but it seems the final number will be a smidge lower.

The value of the QO is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the league each year. As the season ends, a player reaching for free agency is eligible for a qualifying offer if they spent the entire season with just one team and have never received a QO before. If the player declines and signs elsewhere, the signing club is subject to draft pick forfeiture as well as a possible reduction of their international bonus pool. The player’s previous club receives draft pick compensation.

The value of the QO generally goes up as salaries rise. Here are the values of the past dozen QOs:

  • 2012-13: $13.3MM
  • 2013-14: $14.4MM
  • 2014-15: $15.3MM
  • 2015-16: $15.8MM
  • 2016-17: $17.2MM
  • 2017-18: $17.4MM
  • 2018-19: $17.9MM
  • 2019-20: $17.8MM
  • 2020-21: $18.9MM
  • 2021-22: $18.4MM
  • 2022-23: $19.65MM
  • 2023-24: $20.325MM

14 players received qualifying offers last offseason. Joc Pederson and Martín Pérez accepted. The other 12 players declined, though Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo and Brandon Nimmo subsequently ended up re-signing with their previous team.

MLBTR recently took a look at the pitchers and position players that could potentially receive QOs this year, though it has since been reported that Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is not eligible to receive one. Clubs have until 4:00 pm Central on November 6 to decide whether or not to extend the QO to eligible players. Players who receive the QO will have until 3:00 pm Central on November 14 to decide whether or not to accept.

The 2023-24 Offseason Begins

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The 2023 Major League Baseball season concluded last night when the Rangers defeated the Diamondbacks. As Texas celebrates, the baseball world will now go into offseason mode. Free agency begins today for all players that qualify, though there is a five-day period where they cannot sign with a new club. They are eligible to sign with their previous club, however, such as Joe Jiménez signing with Atlanta earlier today.

We at MLB Trade Rumors have been getting prepared in recent weeks, publishing our annual arbitration projections from Matt Swartz in early October. We’ve also previewed the upcoming free agent class one position at a time and taken a team-by-team look at the winter ahead in our Offseason Outlook series. We’ve also looked at some non-tender candidates and potential qualifying offer recipients.

Here are the key dates to keep in mind for the winter ahead…

NOVEMBER 2: Free agency begins for eligible players. This means they are removed from the roster of the club they finished 2023 with. As mentioned up top, they are able to re-sign with that club but can’t sign with a new team for five days. Trades of players on the 40-man roster are now permitted again for the first time since the trade deadline.

NOVEMBER 5: Gold Glove winners announced.

NOVEMBER 6: After the five-day waiting period, free agents will be eligible to sign with any club. This is also the deadline for decisions on club options, player options, opt-outs and mutual options. It is also the deadline for clubs to decide whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players, with that deadline at 4:00 pm Central specifically.

NOVEMBER 7-9: General managers meeting in Scottsdale, Arizona.

NOVEMBER 13-16: BBWAA Awards week. The Rookie of the Year winners will be announced on the first date of this stretch, followed by Manager of the Year winners, Cy Young Award winners and Most Valuable Player winners. Under the current collective bargaining agreement, the results of the voting can potentially impact the service time of a young player or award draft picks to certain teams.

NOVEMBER 14: Players who received a qualifying offer have until this date at 3:00 pm Central to assess the market before deciding whether or not to accept it. The QO changes annually since it is an average of the top 125 contracts in the league. This year’s QO is expected to land around $20.5MM. A player is only eligible to receive a QO if they spent the entire 2023 season with just one club and have not received one before. Teams that sign a player who rejected a qualifying offer will be subject to draft pick forfeiture and perhaps a loss of international bonus pool money, while the player’s previous club receives draft pick compensation.

NOVEMBER 14: Rule 5 protection deadline. Teams have until this date to add players to their 40-man roster in order to protect them from being selected in the Rule 5 draft.

NOVEMBER 14-16: Owners meetings in Arlington, Texas. The owners are set to vote on the Athletics’ planned move from Oakland to Las Vegas at this year’s meetings.

NOVEMBER 17: The non-tender deadline. By this date, teams have to decide whether or not to tender a contract to arbitration-eligible players. They don’t have to agree to a salary, merely whether to keep the player on the roster or not. Players that are non-tendered become free agents without being exposed to waivers.

DECEMBER 3-6: Winter Meetings in Nashville, Tennessee. This is often a key period in the offseason, with many marquee free agent signings and notable trades happening in or around the meetings.

DECEMBER 5: Amateur draft lottery. To discourage tanking, the new CBA introduced a lottery system to determine the order of the amateur draft. Last year, the first lottery resulted in the Pirates securing the first overall pick, which they later used on right-hander Paul Skenes in July.

DECEMBER 6: The Rule 5 draft. Teams with open 40-man roster spots are able to select eligible players from other clubs. A selected player cannot be optioned to the minors by the new club and needs to stay on the roster all year long or else be offered back to the original club.

DECEMBER 15: International signing period closes.

JANUARY 12: Deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to submit salary figures for 2024. Arbitration hearings will begin to take place at the end of January, though teams and players can agree to a salary at any point before a hearing takes place. However, many teams adopt the “file and trial” tactic, meaning that they’ll automatically opt to go to a hearing with any player who doesn’t agree to a salary by this date, with no further discussion about an arbitration-avoiding deal.

JANUARY 15: New international signing period opens. Most of the top international prospects will sign right away, often having made handshake deals years prior.

FEBRUARY 13: Voluntary Spring Training reporting date for pitchers, catchers and injured players.

FEBRUARY 18: Voluntary Spring Training reporting date for other players.

MARCH 20-21: Dodgers and Padres begin regular season with two games in Seoul, South Korea.

MARCH 28: Opening Day for all other teams. Active rosters reduced to 26 players.

Braves Sign Joe Jiménez To Three-Year Deal

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The Braves announced today that they have signed right-hander Joe Jiménez to a three-year, $26MM deal. The righty was about to become a free agent but will stick with Atlanta instead. The client of ISE Baseball will make $8MM in 2024 and then $9MM in each of the two subsequent seasons.

Jiménez, 29 in January, spent his entire career with the Tigers until he was traded to Atlanta coming into the 2023 season. He ended up having a strong campaign, making 59 appearances with an earned run average of 3.04. He struck out 30.7% of batters faced while issuing walks at just a 5.9% clip. He wasn’t used in the most high-leverage spots, earning just 13 holds and no saves on the year. He also appeared in just one of Atlanta’s postseason contests, but the results for the year were impressive nonetheless.

The decision makers in Atlanta are clearly enamored with Jiménez, having parted with prospects Justyn-Henry Malloy and Jake Higginbotham in order to get him from Detroit last offseason. That was on the heels of a strong 2022 season wherein he made 62 appearances with a 3.49 ERA, 33.3% strikeout rate and 5.6% walk rate. When combined with his one season in Atlanta, he has a 3.27 ERA over 121 appearances in the past two years, striking out 32% of opponents in the process. He’s now been able to parlay that two-year run of strong results into a solid three-year deal.

The contract is generally in line with those for other non-closer relievers in recent years. Rafael Montero got three years and $34.5MM from the Astros, Taylor Rogers three years and $33MM from the Giants, while Kendall Graveman got three years and $24MM from the White Sox.

Atlanta was set to lose a decent chunk of its bullpen to free agency, with Jiménez, Pierce Johnson and Jesse Chavez slated to hit the open market this winter. Collin McHugh, Brad Hand and Kirby Yates could join them depending on how their contract options play out. But Johnson and the club reached a two-year extension last week and now Jiménez is staying as well, allowing them to stick with incumbents like Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter and Tyler Matzek.

For other clubs who may have been in the market for a reliever like Jiménez, they will now have one less option available to them on the open market. Josh Hader is clearly the top relief arm available, but the tier below him also has intriguing options such as Jordan Hicks, Reynaldo López and Robert Stephenson. It’s possible Chad Green could join them, depending on how his convoluted contract plays out in the coming days, while Yuki Matsui is looking to make the move from Japan.

Roster Resource currently pegs Atlanta’s 2024 payroll at $174MM with a competitive balance tax number of $205MM. This deal will add $8MM to the payroll and $8.67MM to the CBT number, since the latter is based on the average annual value of the entire contract. They have until Monday to decide on options for players like Charlie Morton, Eddie Rosario, McHugh, Hand and Yates. Triggering any of those would put some extra money onto the books but turning them down will leave them with extra items on the winter to-do list. The base threshold for the luxury tax will be $237MM in 2024.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rangers Win World Series

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With a 5-0 victory over the Diamondbacks on Wednesday night, the Rangers claimed their first World Series championship in franchise history. They took the series four games to one, splitting the first two contests at Globe Life Field in Texas before winning all three at Chase Field in Arizona.

The franchise was established in 1961 as the Washington Senators, before moving to Arlington in 1972. The Rangers won back-to-back AL pennants in 2010 and ’11 but lost in the World Series both years. They held the second-longest championship drought in baseball, a title that now falls to the Brewers, who have not won a World Series in their 55-year history. The Guardians, having last won a World Series in 1948, still hold the longest championship drought in the game at 75 years and counting.

Including Milwaukee, there are now just five franchises that have yet to win a World Series: the Brewers, Padres, Mariners, Rockies, and Rays.

The Rangers took fate into their own hands over the past two seasons, signing stars like Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jacob deGrom, and Nathan Eovaldi to large contracts to accelerate their competitive window. They burst out of the gate in 2023, going 17-11 (.607) in April and 52-39 (.571) in the first half. General Manager Chris Young remained aggressive at the trade deadline, adding Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery to replenish a depleted rotation. The moves paid off, and the Rangers finished 90-72 with a +165 run differential. Although they lost the division crown on a tiebreaker, they swept their way to the ALCS and dethroned the Astros in a thrilling seven-game series. Just two years removed from a 102-loss season, the Rangers are World Series champions.

Seager was named World Series MVP for his dominant offensive performance against Arizona. In five games, he smacked three home runs, driving in six. The star shortstop led all players in the World Series in Win Probability Added (WPA), scoring a run in all four Texas victories. Overall, he hit .318 with a 1.133 OPS in the postseason. It is his second time winning World Series MVP honors, after previously taking home the award in 2020 with the Dodgers.

Additional hitters from the championship team who merit special recognition for their postseason performance include Adolis García and Evan Carter. On the pitching side, Montgomery and Eovaldi offered particularly praiseworthy performances, as did Josh Sborz and José Leclerc. García led the team with eight home runs and a whopping 22 RBI throughout the playoffs, taking home ALCS MVP honors. Unfortunately, his postseason ended early after an oblique strain in Game 3. Carter, the rookie phenom, was an integral part of the team’s offense despite making his MLB debut this past September. He is only 21 years old.

Eovaldi made six starts across the four series, going 5-0 with a 2.95 ERA. Montgomery was similarly dominant, appearing in six games (five starts) and posting a 2.90 ERA of his own. Meanwhile, Leclerc and Sborz were a lethal combination out of the bullpen. Leclerc, the longest-tenured player on the roster, was reliable as ever, pitching in 13 contests and putting up a 3.29 ERA. Sborz, for his part, showed up seemingly out of nowhere, tossing 12 innings and giving up just one run, good for a 0.75 ERA. Over the past three years with Texas, he has a 4.98 ERA. However, his underlying numbers have long suggested he is better than his ERA, and with his performance this postseason, he proved that to be true.

Manager Bruce Bochy collects his fourth World Series title, having won with the Giants in 2010, 2012, and 2014. Funnily enough, his Giants beat the Rangers to win it all in 2010. The long-time manager came out of retirement to join the Rangers in 2023, a surprising move at the time, but clearly a shrewd decision.

With the World Series wrapped up, it’s time for the offseason to officially begin. Teams can start making trades on Thursday, and they will be able to sign free agents on Monday. That’s also the deadline for teams to make option decisions, to issue qualifying offers, and to add players from the 60-day injured list back to the 40-man roster. The non-tender deadline is November 17.

2023 Non-Tender Candidates

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The offseason will get underway no later than this weekend. While the first few days will be defined by option decisions and qualifying offers, the focus turns to arbitration-eligible players shortly thereafter.

As is the case each winter, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has projected salaries for that group. Those figures are not locked in, with teams free to decline to tender contracts to anyone on their 40-man roster who isn’t already on a guaranteed deal. A non-tender sends a player directly to free agency without exposing them to waivers. This offseason’s non-tender deadline is Friday, November 17.

Not everyone who is tendered a contract will know their salary by that date. Some players will sign “pre-tender” deals that lock in guaranteed money within the next couple weeks. Many of them are borderline non-tender candidates who will take salaries below the projection to ensure they stay on the roster at all. Those who don’t sign but are tendered a contract could have a few months of uncertainty. They’re free to continue negotiating with their clubs to find a mutually agreeable salary until the date of their arbitration hearing, which typically runs from mid-February into the beginning of March.

With the non-tender deadline a couple weeks away, we’ll take a look at arb-eligible players we believe have a realistic shot at being let go. To be clear, this is not a list of players we think are likelier than not to be non-tendered. These are players we consider to have at least a 10% chance of being cut — a broad group who wouldn’t strike us as completely surprising.

At least a few of these players will likely be traded within the first couple weeks of the offseason, as some teams will have more willingness than others to accommodate various projected salaries. Hunter Renfroe, Gio Urshela and Kevin Newman were all traded in deals of this ilk last fall.

Onto the list, with Matt’s projected salaries:

Catchers

First Basemen

Second Basemen

Third Basemen

Shortstops

Center Fielders

Corner Outfielders

Designated Hitter

Starting Pitchers

Right-Handed Relievers

Left-Handed Relievers

* Kelly’s projected arbitration salary exceeds the option price

Rangers Remove Adolis Garcia, Max Scherzer From World Series Roster

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6:11PM: The Rangers have officially replaced Garcia and Scherzer on the World Series roster with Duran and left-hander Brock Burke, the league announced.  Burke had a 4.37 ERA, 20.8% strikeout rate, and 3.8% walk rate over 59 2/3 innings for Texas this season, initially working as a multi-inning reliever before settling into a more standard one-inning bullpen role.  The southpaw has made only one appearance during the Rangers’ playoff run, tossing one-third of an inning in Game 2 of the ALDS against the Orioles.

5:12PM: Adolis Garcia and Max Scherzer each left yesterday’s Game 3 with injuries, as Garcia was removed with an apparent side injury after a big swing in the eighth inning and Scherzer lasted only three innings on the mound due to back tightness.  Providing updates on both players today, Rangers manager Bruce Bochy told media that the club had yet to make a formal decision about whether or not either Garcia or Scherzer would be replaced on the World Series roster, but that decision might come prior to the start of tonight’s Game 4.

“It’s not great news” about Garcia, as Bochy bluntly put it, as the outfielder has suffered “a moderate strain of the oblique.”  Garcia took some swings to test his readiness and is undergoing treatment from team trainers, but he has already been ruled out of the starting lineup, as Travis Jankowski will instead get the nod tonight in Garcia’s customary right field spot.  As for Scherzer, the veteran right-hander’s back is still “pretty locked up,” putting his readiness for another appearance later in the Series into serious doubt.

Since a player cannot return to action in the World Series once he is removed from the roster, it is understandable why Texas is being as cautious as possible before making a final call on Garcia and Scherzer.  That said, it is hard to imagine either getting healthy enough to play within the short window of time remaining in the postseason.  The Rangers simply can’t afford to play essentially two men down, and even though Scherzer probably wouldn’t have pitched again until a possible Game 7 if healthy, the Rangers would still be fielding a shorthanded roster in the event that Scherzer was given an extra day or two for more observation.  Getting a fresh arm in Scherzer’s place would also help the bullpen sooner rather than later.

Ezequiel Duran has already been tabbed as the replacement should Garcia indeed be removed from the roster, yet obviously there’s no way to truly replace his huge contributions to the Texas lineup.  Garcia has been perhaps the biggest star of the Rangers’ playoff run, as he has hit .323/.382/.726 with eight home runs over 68 plate appearances this postseason.  Garcia’s 15 RBI during the ALCS set a new record for most RBI in a postseason series, and Garcia was rightly named ALCS MVP for his heroics in the Rangers’ seven-game triumph over the Astros.

Taylor Walls Undergoes Hip Surgery

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7:53 pm: While the Rays are not prepared to say that Walls will be ready for Opening Day, his manager is “optimistic” he could be back for the start of the 2024 season, per Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times.

“If he’s running before he comes into spring training, that would be a very good sign,” said Kevin Cash. Still, the skipper cautioned that it’s too soon to know for sure: “I think we’ll know more in a month.” 

2:51 pm: The Rays announced this afternoon (as relayed by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) that shortstop Taylor Walls underwent a surgical procedure on his right hip today. The procedure aimed to relieve discomfort due to an impingement and repair a tear in the labrum of the hip. Per the Rays, Walls is expected to be ready for baseball activities in February, though his readiness for Opening Day won’t be clear until he returns to baseball activities and a timeline can be established.

It’s an incredibly unfortunate development for the Rays. Walls, 27, emerged as the club’s primary shortstop down the stretch in 2023 following the placement of star shortstop Wander Franco on administrative leave while the league investigated allegations against Franco of inappropriate relationships with multiple minors. While Walls hit well early in the season, slashing .244/.349/.481 in his first 152 trips to the plate, he struggled the rest of the way, slashing just .169/.270/.221 with a 27.9% strikeout rate over his final 197 plate appearances.

Despite that downturn in offensive production, Walls still looked to be in line for the lion’s share of time at shortstop entering next year, pending a decision on Franco’s situation. Walls, a finalist of the utility Gold Glove award in the AL, saw his glove work around the infield praised by Defensive Runs Saved (+10 DRS) but panned by Outs Above Average (-6).

The Rays have a few other options at shortstop in the event that the everyday job remains vacant headed into Opening Day. Youngsters Junior Caminero, Osleivis Basabe, and Vidal Brujan are all already on the 40-man roster, though none of the group have found success in the major leagues to this point in their careers. Caminero’s .235/.278/.353 slash line in a brief 36-PA cup of coffee was the best major-league performance among that trio by measure of wRC+. Given that reality, the club may be best served looking for an external shortstop option to provide depth at the position via free agency.

Such an addition may be easier said than done, however. After all, the Rays are already due to stretch the club’s budget in 2024, with RosterResource projecting the club for a $120MM payroll that exceeds their 2023 figure by more than $50MM. The club may have already been poised to shed salary by moving on from the likes of Harold Ramirez, Manuel Margot, and perhaps even Tyler Glasnow, but such a move seems all the more likely if the Rays are forced to commit additional resources to shortstop in 2024. Quality shortstop options are few and far between in free agency this offseason, with the likes of Amed Rosario, Paul DeJong, and Gio Urshela representing some of the best options available.

Braves Sign Pierce Johnson To Two-Year Extension

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The Braves signed reliever Pierce Johnson to a two-year, $14.25MM extension, the club announced. (Atlanta is one of the few teams that publicly discloses contract terms.) Johnson, who was a couple weeks from free agency, is set for consecutive $7MM salaries between 2024-25 and is guaranteed a $250K buyout on a $7MM team option for 2026. For luxury tax purposes, the contract’s average annual value is $7.125MM. Johnson is a client of John Boggs & Associates.

Johnson, 33 next May, first joined the Braves in a deadline deal that sent minor league pitchers Victor Vodnik and Tanner Gordon to the Rockies. It wasn’t an especially high-profile move at the time. The right-hander owned a 6.00 ERA over 38 innings after signing a $5MM free agent deal with Colorado. Johnson had punched out a quality 30.9% of opponents with the Rox, so he wasn’t without upside, but few would’ve anticipated how resoundingly he’d turn his season around.

The Missouri State product tossed 23 2/3 regular season innings for Atlanta, allowing 0.76 earned runs per nine. His strikeout rate jumped more than five percentage points, as he fanned 36% of batters faced. His swinging strike rate spiked from a solid 12.3% to an elite 17.8% mark. He more than halved his walks and doubled his ground-ball percentage. Johnson pitched his way into high-leverage work and added three scoreless appearances in the Division Series.

Leaving Coors Field offers a partial explanation for the improved results, but it’s certainly not the entire story. Johnson has always had promising raw stuff, pairing a 96 MPH fastball with a mid-80s power curve. Upon landing in Atlanta, he dramatically upped the use of the breaking ball. Johnson turned to the hook nearly three quarters of the time as a Brave after deploying it in a near-even division with the fastball while in Denver. Given the results, it’s hard to find fault with that plan of attack.

The question is how much stock to place in two-plus months of dominance amidst an otherwise inconsistent career. Johnson had never shown anything near the level of control he did in Atlanta. He carried a career 12% walk rate in parts of six big league campaigns with the Cubs, Giants, Padres and Rockies before that trade. As a Brave, he handed out free passes to just 5.6% of opponents.

Johnson has flashed solid ability before, albeit never to the level he demonstrated in Atlanta. He turned in a 3.22 ERA over 58 2/3 frames with San Diego three seasons back. His 2022 campaign was derailed by forearm tendinitis that kept him to 15 appearances, setting the stage for his rebound deal with Colorado. Now, he has locked in the strongest guarantee of his career.

It still has the potential to be solid value for the Braves, as Johnson is being paid towards the lower end of the established range for quality setup arms in their mid-30s. Chris Martin secured $17.5MM over two years with the Red Sox last offseason, while Adam Ottavino got an opt-out clause in a $14.5MM deal with the Mets. Ryan Tepera ($14MM) and Joe Kelly ($17MM) landed similar pacts entering their age-34 campaign two years ago.

Atlanta has a solid bullpen, finishing 11th in ERA (3.81) and fifth in strikeout percentage (25.9%). They were set to potentially lose a few pieces from the group, with Joe Jiménez hitting free agency and various option scenarios for Collin McHugh, Kirby Yates and Brad Hand. The club is likely to decline its options on McHugh and Hand, while a net $4.5MM call on Yates is borderline. Re-signing Johnson locks him in alongside A.J. Minter and potentially Nick Anderson or Tyler Matzek as setup options to Raisel Iglesias. Further augmenting the middle relief seems a priority for president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his front office.

The Braves are up to roughly $138MM in guaranteed commitments for next season. The arbitration class could tack on roughly $30MM. Roster Resource projects their luxury tax number in the $206MM range (including arbitration estimates), around $30MM below next year’s $237MM base threshold. The organization opened 2023 with a player payroll around $203MM, so there should still be a decent amount of short-term flexibility. In addition to the bullpen, bolstering the starting staff and perhaps upgrading on Eddie Rosario in left field could be offseason goals.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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