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Mets To Promote Ronny Mauricio

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The Mets are promoting infield prospect Ronny Mauricio, reports Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase (Twitter link). He’ll join the club on Friday when active rosters expand from 26 to 28 players.

Mauricio, 22, joins the major league team for the first time. He has been one of the most highly-touted players in the system since signing out of the Dominican Republic during the 2017-18 amateur period. Baseball America has slotted him among the Mets’ five most talented farmhands at the start of each of the last five years, while he placed among the league’s Top 100 talents at BA every season from 2019-22.

A switch-hitter, Mauricio draws praise from evaluators for significant power potential from both sides of the plate. He’s an excellent athlete with a strong throwing arm and has a shot to stick in the middle infield. Few minor league players can match Mauricio’s physical ability, which he has put on display in the upper minors over the past couple seasons.

Mauricio has posted consecutive 20-20 seasons, spending last year in Double-A before moving up to Triple-A Syracuse for this year. He connected on 26 longballs with 20 stolen bases a year ago. Through 115 contests with Syracuse, he has hit 23 homers and gone 24-31 on the basepaths.

The main question is whether Mauricio is a selective enough hitter to continue performing against MLB competition. This year’s 6.6% walk rate is his highest at any full-season level but is still a couple points below the MLB average. The lack of free passes have generally resulted in below-average OBP marks as he’s climbed the minor league ladder. His prospect stock has dimmed slightly as a result. Baseball America no longer includes him in their Top 100, though he still ranked sixth in the organization on their midseason update. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN left him just outside a recent Top 50 list.

Mauricio is still a very good prospect, albeit perhaps more high-variance than most top minor league talents. To his credit, he has continued to perform well at the upper levels — generally against slightly older competition. Mauricio is hitting .295/.349/.511 across 527 Triple-A plate appearances. Alongside his marginally improved walk rate, he has cut his strikeouts to a lower than average 18.2% clip — nearly five points better than his Double-A figure. Mauricio has performed well from both sides of the dish, hitting .298/.358/.521 against southpaws while posting a .284/.316/.477 slash versus right-handed pitching.

The Mets have used Mauricio at shortstop for the majority of his pro career. He has logged nearly 500 innings of second base work in Syracuse this year. The latter position seems his likeliest fit at the MLB level given the presence of Francisco Lindor in Queens. New York could kick Jeff McNeil into left field while taking reps from Rafael Ortega as they get their first look at Mauricio to close a disappointing season.

Mauricio will retain his rookie eligibility headed into next year, leaving open the possibility of him netting the club a future draft choice if he meets the criteria for the Prospect Promotion Incentive. He was already added to the 40-man roster two offseasons ago, so the Mets won’t have to make any additional moves to bring him up on Friday.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Yankees To Promote Jasson Domínguez, Austin Wells

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The Yankees are calling up outfield prospect Jasson Domínguez, reports Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. Catching prospect Austin Wells will be promoted as well, per Greg Joyce and Joel Sherman of The New York Post. Both looming promotions were reported on earlier today. Neither player is on the 40-man roster but the Yanks already opened a couple of spots by releasing Josh Donaldson and Spencer Howard. Active rosters expand from 26 to 28 on Friday.

Domínguez, 20, was a much-hyped prospect even before joining the affiliated ranks, signing for a huge $5.1MM bonus in 2019 that accounted for the vast majority of the Yankees’ bonus pool that year. “The Martian” has since climbed the ranks of the minor leagues, showcasing the potential to be an all-around contributor.

After some tepid results in 2021, the switch-hitter went through three different levels last year, going from Single-A to High-A and Double-A. In 120 total games, he hit 16 home runs and stole 20 bases. He struck out in 24.2% of his plate appearances but also walked at a 13.6% rate. His .273/.375/.461 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 135, indicating he was 35% above average. This year, he hit .254/.367/.414 in 109 Double-A games for a 117 wRC+. His 25.6% strikeout rate is on the high side but he’s also walked at a 15.2% clip and stolen 37 bases. He was recently promoted to Triple-A and mashed in eight games there.

Defensively, Domínguez is a center fielder, though there’s much debate among prospect evaluators as to whether he’s a long-term fit there. Even if he has to move to a corner, he’s considered to have the arm strength necessary to be viable in right, though that would put more pressure on his bat than if he were to stick in center. Domínguez is currently ranked the #60 prospect in the league at Baseball America, #34 at FanGraphs, #78 at MLB Pipeline, #16 at ESPN and got the #27 spot from Keith Law of The Athletic.

Wells, 24, was a first-round pick of the Yanks in 2020, getting selected 28th overall. He’s considered a bat-first catcher, hitting left-handed, though many evaluators think he’s elevated his defensive reputation as he’s approached the majors.

He’s played in 95 games this year across three different minor league levels, hitting 17 home runs in that time and walking in 11.1% of his plate appearances. His combined slash of .243/.335/.447 amounts to a wRC+ of 105 and he also stole seven bases. BA considers him the #81 prospect in the league. He didn’t crack any of the other four aforementioned lists, though ESPN lists him as a “late cut” on their midseason update, which was capped at 50 names.

The Yankees are 64-68 and 11 games out of a playoff spot with just over a month left on the schedule. They have clearly shifted from contention mode, placing outfielder Harrison Bader on waivers this week, willing to essentially give him away for cost savings.  They will use what is left of the season to evaluate some of their younger players, having recently promoted Everson Pereira and Oswald Peraza, with Domínguez and Wells now joining them.

Assuming Bader is claimed off waivers tomorrow, it’s possible Domínguez gets to finish the year as the club’s regular center fielder, with the Yanks taking that time to evaluate him before deciding how to proceed this winter. Behind the plate, Jose Trevino is out for the season due to wrist surgery. The club has been using Kyle Higashioka and Ben Rortvedt as their catching duo lately but Wells will presumably take some of their playing time the rest of the way.

Neither player will have enough time to exhaust their rookie eligibility here in 2023, meaning they will still be rookies in 2024. Under the current collective bargaining agreement, the prospect promotion incentive can potentially provide extra draft picks to clubs who promote top prospects for an entire year of service time. To qualify, a player must be on two of the Top 100 lists at BA, ESPN and MLB Pipeline in the preceding offseason and then earn a full year of service time as a rookie. If they win Rookie of the Year or finish in the top three in MVP voting during pre-arbitration seasons, the parent club earns an extra draft pick in the following season just after the first round. Wells may or may not be in that camp, depending on how the offseason lists shake out, but Domínguez seems like a lock to have PPI status next year.

Though it’s undoubtedly been a disappointing season in the Bronx, fans will be able get a glimpse at some things to be excited about for future seasons, as they watch some players who could perhaps help the Yankees in future seasons.

Angels Place Lucas Giolito, Matt Moore, Reynaldo López, Hunter Renfroe, Randal Grichuk On Waivers

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In a stunning development, the Angels have waved the white flag on their season, placing starter Lucas Giolito, relievers Matt Moore and Reynaldo López, and outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Randal Grichuk on waivers, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN. Each player is an impending free agent and the Angels are apparently hoping to save some money by having some or all of them claimed off waivers while simultaneously allowing the players to join playoff contenders before the September 1 cutoff. Dominic Leone is also on the list, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

The Halos also placed starter Tyler Anderson on waivers last week, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (on Twitter). He went unclaimed and elected to stick with the Halos. That no one took Anderson on is hardly a surprise. He’s only in the first season of a three-year, $39MM free agent contract that hasn’t gone well in year one. In 117 2/3 innings, the veteran southpaw has a 5.35 ERA.

The Angels have been making a strong push to contend in recent years, trying to put a competitive ballclub around their superstars Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. Part of their offseason upgrades included signing Moore and trading for Renfroe. The club hovered around contention through the trade deadline, deciding to hang onto Ohtani as well as making further additions, including Giolito, López and Grichuk.

Unfortunately, just about everything has gone wrong in the month of August, with the club having posted a record of 7-18 so far this month. As if that weren’t enough, Ohtani was diagnosed with a tear in the ulnar collateral ligament of his throwing elbow, which will prevent him from pitching again this season. Trout, meanwhile, attempted to return from his hamate surgery despite still being sore but was in too much pain to continue and landed right back on the IL.

This brutal month has pushed the Angels’ record to 63-69, which leaves them 11.5 games back of a playoff spot. Calculations from both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus give the club no hope of coming back, making this a lost season. All six of the players reportedly on waivers are impending free agents, meaning they have no real use to the Angels now. The only player of the bunch that would warrant a qualifying offer, allowing the Angels to recoup draft pick compensation, would be Giolito but he’s ineligible to receive one since he was traded midseason.

Since the trade deadline passed four weeks ago, there’s no way for the Angels to exchange any of those players for any kind of future value. But by putting them on waivers, they at least give themselves a chance of saving some money. Giolito is making $10.4MM this year, without about $1.9MM left to be paid out. For Renfroe, those figures are $11.9MM and $2.18MM. For Moore, $7.55M and $1.38MM. López, $3.625MM and $633K. Leone is $1.5MM and $275K. Grichuk’s case is slightly more complicated since he’s making $9.33MM this year as part of the extension he signed with the Blue Jays, though that club is eating $4.33MM of that while the Rockies also sent some cash considerations is to the Angels when trading them Grichuk and C.J. Cron. There’s about $1.71MM left to be paid out though a claiming team wouldn’t be responsible for all of it.

Beyond the strict cash savings, dumping some salary will have luxury tax implications for the Angels. Roster Resource calculates the club’s competitive balance tax figure at $234.4MM, just $1.4MM over the base threshold of $233MM. Cot’s Baseball Contracts has them even farther over at $241.7MM. Both of those numbers are unofficial but highlight that the club is likely over the line by a small amount. The Angels are sure to make Ohtani a qualifying offer at season’s end and would receive draft pick compensation if he signed elsewhere. That compensation would be a pick just after the fourth round if they are a CBT payor but would move to just before the third round if they can dip below. That would roughly move the draft pick from around the 140th pick to the 75-80 range. Being a repeat payor also has escalating penalties, so avoiding paying the tax now could benefit the club if they decide to spend aggressively again next year.

In prior seasons, the July trade deadline was followed by a second deadline in August, though the latter portion required players to clear revocable waivers before being dealt. In 2019, MLB and the MLBPA agreed to a single deadline, with no trades allowed at all after the first deadline. There’s no longer any way for a club to make deals at this part of the calendar but players are still playoff eligible if they join an organization prior to September 1. That means they may find interest on the waiver wire, so long as the claiming club is willing to take on the salary of the player in question.

The waiver order goes in reverse order of standings, regardless of league. The previous August waiver trade system used to be league-specific but that’s no longer in place. As of today, the Athletics would have first dibs on any of these players, followed by the Royals, then the Rockies and so on, simply going from worst record to best, regardless of league. Of course, there’s little reason for those clubs out of contention to claim an impending free agent and take on their salary commitments. The claims are more likely to be made by clubs still hoping to make the playoffs, with those with worse records having a better chance of a successful claim than those at the top of the standings.

This will lead to some interesting calculations in the days to come. Many contending clubs have already spent the majority of the money they had allotted for the season, but will have to decide on whether it’s worthwhile to suddenly add another $1.9MM just for one month of Giolito to help with a stretch run, for example. He’s been inconsistent since joining the Angels but had a 3.79 ERA for the White Sox prior to the deal and has a longer track record of success, with a 3.86 ERA from 2019 to 2022.

Moore made a transition to the bullpen in recent years with excellent results, with a 1.95 ERA last year and 2.30 ERA this year. López is fairly similar, having gone from a fairly mediocre starter earlier in his career to effective reliever, including a 3.86 ERA this year. Renfroe’s production has been up-and-down, with a .240/.300/.480 batting line in his career but a lesser .239/.300/.425 showing this year. Grichuk is having another season with his blend of power but a subpar walk rate, slashing .261/.317/.435. Leone has struggled with control but has generally posted above-average strikeout rates.

For the players, they likely aren’t thrilled about being subject to the whims of the waiver wire, especially the ones who only just became Angels recently. But they will at least likely find themselves moving from a sinking ship to a contender in the coming days, giving them a chance to compete in a playoff race and perhaps get into the postseason.

As for the clubs considering a claim, this will be their best chance to bolster their rosters for the final month of the season, now that the deadline is long gone. It’s also possible that a new precedent has been set for the end of August, as it’s not just the Angels that have taken this tack. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic has reported that Carlos Carrasco of the Mets, Mike Clevinger of the White Sox and José Cisnero of the Tigers have also been placed on waivers, while Erik Boland of Newsday first reported that Harrison Bader of the Yankees is also on the list.

Though the moves make some sense for the Angels, it’s undoubtedly a frustrating low point as the attempts to contend have repeatedly failed. They gave up several notable prospects to acquire some of these players just a few weeks ago and are now trying to give them away for little more than cost savings. They are now sure to finish the season without having made the playoffs since 2014 and could potentially watch Ohtani sign with a new club this winter.

White Sox Reportedly Place Mike Clevinger On Waivers

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The White Sox have placed started Mike Clevinger on waivers, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. This is one of several moves today as players with notable salaries are being placed on waivers by clubs out of contention, trying to dump some salary by having a contending club put in a claim.

Clevinger, 32, is playing the season on a one-year, $12MM contract, though the structure of the deal leaves a decent chunk yet to be paid out. The veteran righty is earning an $8MM salary, with about $1.42MM of that yet to be paid out, but is also owed a $4MM buyout on a $12MM mutual option for the 2024 campaign. As such, there’s about $5.42MM in total guarantees remaining for any club that places a claim.

Steep as that price may be for a month of work (and potentially more during the playoffs), Clevinger would be an upgrade to the pitching staff of most contending clubs. He’s made 18 starts for the White Sox this season, tallying 97 2/3 innings of 3.32 ERA ball along the way. Clevinger’s 20.8% strikeout rate is down nearly seven percentage points from its peak, and he’s walked 9.3% of his opponents this year — right in line with his career mark.

Clevinger missed about six weeks of the summer due to inflammation in his right biceps but has done his best work of the season since being activated. In six post-IL starts, the right-hander has notched a 2.31 earned run average and 3.39 FIP while fanning opponents at a 23.7% clip against an 8.3% walk rate. Clevinger’s most recent outing saw him punch out 10 A’s hitters across seven one-run frames, and he also blanked the Cubs while posting seven strikeouts over seven innings back on Aug. 16.

The White Sox didn’t move Clevinger as part of their deadline sell-off, presumably because he only returned from the injured list just three days before the deadline itself. Given the injury uncertainty, a less-impressive pre-IL performance and the amount of money remaining on his contract, other teams were surely wary of giving up much of anything to acquire him in a trade. Today’s placement on waivers gives the South Siders the opportunity to at least shed some of the money he’s owed.

If Clevinger goes unclaimed, the Sox could still let him go in order to try to latch on with a contender between the expiration of his waiver period and the Aug. 31, 11:59pm ET deadline for postseason eligibility. In that scenario, the new team would only owe him the prorated league minimum, which would be subtracted from the Sox’ obligation to Clevinger.

Clevinger is essentially a rental player — mutual options are almost never exercised by both parties — and he’ll now be made available to all 29 other clubs, in order of reverse standings. Unlike the now-defunct revocable August trade waivers, outright waivers are not league-specific. (MLBTR has confirmed this with league sources on multiple occasions.) Waiver priority on Clevinger and all other veteran players who were waived today will be based on a worst-to-first basis, beginning with the A’s and ending with the Braves.

Yankees Place Harrison Bader On Waivers

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The Yankees have placed center fielder Harrison Bader on waivers, reports Erik Boland of Newsday (Twitter link). As is the case with the Angels’ series of waiver placements, New York’s hope is that another team will claim the remaining salary on a player who was headed to free agency in a couple months.

To be clear, these are irrevocable waivers — either of the outright or release variety. The previous system of August waiver trades — where a team could rescind a placement if another club made a claim and the two sides didn’t work out a trade — was done away with in 2019. Whichever claiming team with the highest waiver priority as of Thursday morning will get Bader while taking on the remainder of his arbitration salary. (The waiver priority is in inverse order of the MLB standings and is not league-specific.) The Yankees won’t receive any compensation besides the salary relief. In the unlikely event that he goes unclaimed, New York could opt to keep him on the major league roster for the stretch run.

It’s probably the end of Bader’s year-plus long tenure in the Bronx. New York acquired him at last summer’s deadline in a surprising one-for-one swap that sent Jordan Montgomery to St. Louis. Both players had a season and a half of remaining arbitration control at the time, making it a rather straightforward swap of veterans among contending clubs to address positions of need.

The deal worked out better for St. Louis, as Montgomery has stayed healthy and performed at an upper mid-rotation level since leaving New York. Bader played well at times for the Yankees — headlined by his five homers in nine postseason games last October — but continued dealing with various injury concerns that have plagued him throughout his career.

Bader has landed on the injured list twice this season. He started the year on the shelf with an oblique strain and missed a few weeks with a hamstring issue. He has struggled mightily since returning on June 20, slumping to a .230/.272/.304 batting line in 55 contests. His season slash is down to .242/.279/.370 with just seven homers through 302 plate appearances.

It’s arguably the worst offensive showing of Bader’s career. While he’s never posted huge on-base numbers, this year’s mark is a personal low. It’s the 11th-lowest figure for a hitter with 300+ trips to the dish. Bader is avoiding strikeouts but very rarely walks and has hit just .274 on balls in play.

The offensive struggles are ill-timed for a player on the verge of his first trip to the open market. Yet his secondary skills are strong enough he’s likely to attract interest from another team down the stretch. Bader is a plus defensive center fielder who has again rated highly in his 655 1/3 innings there this season. He has stolen 16 bases in 18 attempts. He at least looks the part of a high-end fourth outfielder, even if other teams are reluctant to displace their starting center fielder for a player who hasn’t hit well of late.

Bader is only likely to appeal to teams in playoff contention. He’ll still be a free agent at year’s end. Taking on what remains of his $5.2MM salary (a little under $900K) only appeals to teams with a shot at contending. The Yankees would save that amount in salary, plus the 75% tax they’re paying for exceeding the CBT for a second straight season. With New York out of playoff contention and Bader’s rough season taking him out of consideration to receive a qualifying offer, the Yankees have decided to make him available to other clubs.

Yankees Release Josh Donaldson

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The Yankees announced that third baseman Josh Donaldson has been released. Andy Martino of SNY relays that Donaldson will be on release waivers until 1pm tomorrow, at which point he will surely go unclaimed and become a free agent. The club’s 40-man roster is now at 39.

Donaldson, 37, has had a storied career that included literal MVP upside, but his time in the Bronx has been obviously disappointing. In March of 2022, the Yanks acquired Donaldson as well as catcher Ben Rortvedt and infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa from the Twins, sending catcher Gary Sánchez and infielder Gio Urshela the other way. Donaldson still had two years and $50MM left on the four-year deal he signed with the Twins, with the Yanks taking on all that remained at that time.

The third baseman was still plenty effective in his two years as a Twin, hitting .243/.355/.474 for a wRC+ of 126 along with solid defensive grades. But his production tailed off after the trade. His first year as a Yankee saw him hit just .222/.308/.374, which translated to a wRC+ of 98, his first subpar offensive showing since 2012. His defense was still solid but his strikeout rate jumped to 27.1%, more than two points above his previous career high, apart from his cup-of-coffee debut in 2011.

Here in 2023, things have gone from bad to worse. Donaldson has spent most of the season on the injured list, first due to a right hamstring strain and then a right calf strain, only getting into 34 games so far this year. When on the field, he’s only tallied 15 hits in his 106 at-bats, leading to a .142 batting average. Bizarrely, 10 of those 15 hits were home runs, leading to a lopsided slash line of .142/.225/.434 and a wRC+ of 75.

Donaldson is currently on the 60-day injured list and had been nearing a rehab assignment of late, but it seems the club didn’t plan on adding him back to their active roster. The Yanks are 63-68 and 11 games out of a playoff spot, seemingly planning to use what’s left of their schedule to get a look at younger players, recently promoting Everson Pereira and Oswald Peraza, with Austin Wells possibly coming soon as well.

With those players set to get plenty of playing time in the coming weeks, there would be less room for Donaldson, especially since his contract is winding down. There’s a $16MM mutual option for 2024 but the Yanks were clearly planning to take the $6MM buyout instead. By nudging Donaldson off the roster now, they open a spot for someone else and keep the playing time open for younger players.

Releasing Donaldson now might also have been a courtesy to him. If he signs with a new club prior to September 1, he’ll be playoff eligible with that team. Based on his health and performance issues this year, he’ll clear waivers by tomorrow afternoon and then have a day and a half to latch on somewhere else. Once released, the Yanks will be on the hook for the remainder of his salary. Any of the 29 other clubs would be free to sign him for the prorated league minimum, with that amount subtracted from what the Yankees pay.

The interest would obviously be limited based on the recent struggles, but he’s not too far removed from being an effective big leaguer. The MVP upside is almost a decade in the past now but, as mentioned, he performed well for the Twins as recently as 2021. If any club thinks he has more left in the tank, they could give him a shot for essentially no financial cost.

But for the Yankees, the Donaldson trade is obviously one they would like to have back. Kiner-Falefa has been a solid utility player but has been subpar at the plate and is about to become a free agent himself, while Rortvedt has been injured for much of the time since the deal. Sánchez was an impending free agent last year and Urshela had two years of control at the time, meaning they didn’t give up much, but taking on Donaldson’s contract tied up a lot of money that could have been spent elsewhere.

Donaldson will now see if there are other opportunities awaiting him, here in 2023 and beyond. He has previously expressed uncertainty about playing beyond this year, which will be a decision for the months to come, but he will first see if there’s a job for him in the short-term.

Mets Reportedly Place Carlos Carrasco On Waivers

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The Mets have placed Carlos Carrasco on waivers, as reported by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The right-hander is one of several players to go on waivers today, as teams out of the postseason picture attempt to shed payroll. If another team claims Carrasco, they will be responsible for the prorated portion of his $14MM salary. He is set to become a free agent after the season.

Following a resurgent 2022 campaign, Carrasco has struggled in 2023. In 20 starts, he is averaging less than five innings per game, while pitching to a 6.80 ERA and 5.17 SIERA. The 36-year-old has run into particular trouble since the All-Star break, with a 10.24 ERA in his last eight starts. Given his rough performance, it seems unlikely that any team will be willing to take on his remaining salary, but it’s possible a contending club in need of rotation depth will take a chance on the veteran. He is only one year removed from a season in which he made 29 starts with a 3.97 ERA.

Revocable waivers no longer exist, so these are either outright or release waivers. If Carrasco goes unclaimed, there’s a chance he could become a free agent either way. As a 14-year MLB veteran, he has more than enough service time under his belt to reject an outright assignment without sacrificing any salary. Thus, this could mark the end of his time with the Mets. He has been with the organization for three seasons, having come over from Cleveland in 2021 as part of the trade that brought Francisco Lindor to New York. In 61 starts, he has pitched to a disappointing 5.21 ERA but a much more respectable 4.25 SIERA.

With a payroll far north of the highest competitive balance tax threshold, the Mets aren’t making this move with the luxury tax in mind. Still, given the tens of millions of dollars the team is paying to players no longer on the roster (including Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Robinson Cano), it’s understandable that Steve Cohen and Billy Eppler are looking for a little payroll relief.

New York has several arms available to take over for Carrasco in the rotation if need be, including right-handers José Butto and Denyi Reyes and left-hander Joey Lucchesi. All three are on the 40-man roster and have made at least two starts this season for the big league club. Lucchesi seems to be the most likely candidate; in six starts for the Mets, he has a 2.54 ERA in 28 innings pitched.

Jarren Duran To Undergo Season-Ending Toe Surgery

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The Red Sox announced to reporters, including Christopher Smith of MassLive, that outfielder Jarren Duran will have season-ending turf toe surgery tomorrow. Duran is already on the 10-day injured list but will be transferred to the 60-day version whenever the Sox needs his roster spot. Manager Alex Cora said they expect him to be back by Spring Training, per Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic.

Duran, 26, suffered the injury when scaling the wall at Yankee Stadium, attempting to reach a home run ball hit by Gleyber Torres. He was placed on the injured list a week ago with the Sox describing his injury as a left great toe sprain. It seems the injury is significant enough that he’ll have to go under the knife and won’t be able to come back this year.

It’s an unfortunately sour end to a nice breakout season for the outfielder. He had gotten into 91 games over 2021 and 2022 but struck out in 30.7% of his 335 plate appearances. His .219/.269/.354 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 67, indicating he was 33% below league average in that time. That put him behind players like Adam Duvall and Raimel Tapia on the depth chart and Duran started the season at Triple-A.

But Duvall’s injury absence and Tapia’s struggles opened a path for Duran that he ran with. He was recalled in mid-April and went on to hit .295/.346/.482 for a wRC+ of 120. His 24.9% strikeout rate is still above average but a significant improvement over his own previous work. The reviews on his glovework were mixed, with -5 Defensive Runs Saved but Ultimate Zone Rating grading him just below par at -0.6 and Outs Above Average having him as breaking even. He also stole 24 bases while getting caught just twice. That will now go down as the totality of this 2023 work, as he won’t be returning. It’s a tough loss for the Sox, who are now 5.5 games out of a playoff spot with just over a month left in the season.

Going forward, Duran still has five years of club control remaining and seems to have increased his chances of being a viable long-term solution in center. Tapia is no longer on the team and Duvall is set to become a free agent at season’s end, though he’ll likely continue manning center for the time being. Prospects Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela could also be in the mix, as they both have recently been promoted, though they will each go into 2024 with less experience that Duran.

Tony Gonsolin To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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The Dodgers announced that Tony Gonsolin will undergo Tommy John surgery. The procedure will be performed by Dr. Neal ElAttrache on Friday.

Gonsolin was already known to be out for the remainder of the 2023 season. The club had announced his injury as forearm inflammation when first placing him on the IL last week. They transferred him to the 60-day IL yesterday to close the book on this year.

Now, it seems unlikely he’ll be a factor again until 2025. A Tommy John procedure typically comes with a recovery time pushing or exceeding 14 months. Perhaps he’d be able to make a return late next season, but the safer bet is that he’ll spend the entire ’24 campaign on the 60-day injured list.

Arm injuries have been an unfortunately recurring theme for Gonsolin during his five-year big league career. He lost a couple months early in 2021 with shoulder inflammation. He posted a 3.23 ERA in 15 starts that year and was healthy for the first part of 2022. Gonsolin turned in an All-Star first half and worked to a sparkling 2.14 ERA through 130 1/3 innings. A forearm strain sent him to the IL in late August.

Gonsolin returned at the end of September and made a start in L.A.’s playoff series loss to the Padres. His 2023 debut was delayed by an unrelated ankle sprain, though he returned in late April. The 29-year-old worked 103 innings across 20 outings, struggling to his first below-average season. He allowed just under five earned runs per nine while striking hitters out at a career-low 18.9% clip while his average fastball speed dipped from 93.1 MPH to 92.4 MPH. Things spiraled from late June onward, as Gonsolin allowed four-plus runs in eight of his 11 outings before being placed on the IL.

The Dodgers have now lost a pair of their expected top five starters to forearm surgeries. Dustin May underwent a flexor tendon procedure in early July. The Dodgers indicated May could be back midway through the ’24 season.

Los Angeles was certain to address their rotation next offseason even if May and Gonsolin had been healthy. Clayton Kershaw is an impending free agent, and while the Dodgers would surely have interest in re-signing him, the three-time Cy Young winner will first need to decide whether he wants to suit up for a 17th season. Julio Urías will be one of the top starters in next winter’s free agent class, while the Dodgers will have to make a net $17MM decision on an option for Lance Lynn.

The Dodgers could welcome Walker Buehler back in short stints next month and transition him back to the rotation for ’24. Rookie Bobby Miller has pitched well enough to stake a claim to a spot. That leaves as many as three jobs still to be sorted out between free agency, trade and some combination of Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Michael Grove and perhaps a prospect like Nick Frasso or Landon Knack. The pitching pipeline is strong enough they won’t be short on options, but they’ll obviously need to fortify the starting staff with additional certainty.

Gonsolin signed a two-year deal to cover his first couple arbitration seasons in January. He’s guaranteed a $3.4MM base salary for next year. That deal contained up to $3MM in start-based incentives which he won’t be able to trigger even if he makes a late-season return. Even beyond the lengthy rehab process, the absence will be fairly costly for the right-hander. He’ll remain eligible for arbitration through the 2026 campaign.

Red Sox Promote Ceddanne Rafaela

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3:55pm: The Sox have now officially announced all of these moves.

3:30pm: The Red Sox are recalling prospect Ceddanne Rafaela, per Ian Browne of MLB.com, along with infielder/outfielder David Hamilton. In corresponding moves, infielder Pablo Reyes is going on the injured list while outfielder Wilyer Abreu heads to the paternity list.

Rafaela, now 22, was signed by the Sox as an amateur out of Curaçao for a modest bonus of $10K. He has since performed well in his rise through the minor leagues and is now considered one of the club’s top prospects, though a somewhat divisive one. He has always hit well on the farm but has done so while swinging at just about everything, leading some evaluators to question whether that hyper-aggressive approach could be exploited by major league pitchers. He also began as an infielder but wasn’t considered an excellent defender there, though his move to center field a few years ago seems to have been an astute one, as he’s now considered elite at that position.

His overall prospect stock shot up in 2022, as he split his time between High-A and Double-A with a combined batting line of .299/.342/.538 and a wRC+ of 134 while spending more time in the outfield. That got him onto some top 100 prospect lists and selected to Boston’s 40-man roster in November, to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He’s had another strong performance here in 2023, hitting .302/.349/.520 between Double-A and Triple-A for a wRC+ of 121.

As mentioned, there is divided opinion on Rafaela as a prospect. Baseball America doesn’t currently have him on their top 100, recently ranking him #6 in the club’s system. Kiley McDaniel recently provided a top 50 update to his prospect rankings without Rafaela making the cut. However, MLB Pipeline has him at #77 in the league, Keith Law of The Athletic recent put him at #48 and FanGraphs has him all the way up at #31.

The major question mark seems to be whether his approach at the plate will work in the big leagues. He’s drawn walks in just 105 of his 1,852 plate appearances in the minors thus far, a rate of 5.7% that’s well below the 8.5% major league average. But his overall offense is strong enough that he’ll get a chance against big league pitching.

This part of the calendar is a popular time for prospect promotions, since there’s not enough time left in the season for players to exhaust rookie eligibility. That’s significant under the new collective bargaining agreement, as players with rookie status that feature on top prospect lists can potentially earn their clubs an extra draft pick in future seasons based on awards voting.

That will be a concern for the future. For now, the club will hope Rafaela can hit the ground running and perhaps provide a jolt to finish the year, as they are currently just 4.5 games out of a playoff spot. But it will also give them a chance to evaluate Rafaela prior to the offseason, with center field a bit of a question mark. Adam Duvall has spent plenty of time there but is a free agent at season’s end. Jarren Duran has had a breakout season but is getting some help from a .381 batting average on balls in play and is currently on the injured list. Abreu has been playing some center but is considered by many to be a better fit for a corner. The final weeks of the season could perhaps provide the club some more information on how their center field depth chart looks for 2024.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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