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Padres Sign Nelson Cruz To One-Year Deal

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Jan. 23: Cruz passed his physical in the Dominican Republic and the Padres formally announced the contract on Monday.

Jan. 11: The Padres and slugger Nelson Cruz are in agreement on a one-year deal. The deal is pending a physical but the client of Primo Sports Group is slated to receive a $1MM guarantee.

Once Cruz gets into a game, it will be the 19th straight season for the veteran, who will turn 43 in July. He’s long been one of the most consistent sluggers in the league but he’s coming off a down season. From 2008 to 2021, he hit 434 home runs, the most of anyone in the majors in that time. His batting line over that stretch was .280/.350/.536 for a wRC+ of 136, indicating he was 36% better than league average in that time.

However, the most recent part of his career has been a different story. After being traded from the Twins to the Rays at the deadline in 2021, his production slipped. He hit just .226/.283/.442 after the deal for a wRC+ of 95. He signed a one-year, $15MM deal with the Nationals for 2022 and tried to get back on track but actually fell further. He hit .234/.313/.337 last year, finishing with a wRC+ of 85.

As the season was winding down, Cruz told reporters that he was going to undergo eye surgery, since he had been dealing some inflammation that was blocking his vision. He said that it had been affecting him for about a year and a half, which lines up with the period in which his production cratered. Assuming the operation was a success, it’s possible that he could get back to his previous levels of production. But given that he’s old by professional athlete standards, it’s possible that typical age decline could also be a factor.

There’s certainly some risk involved, but it seems to be one that Padres’ president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is willing to take. Preller has shown a tendency to give chances to players he previously employed when he was with the Rangers and Cruz fits that bill. He was a Ranger from 2006 to 2013, the time when he broke out and had some of his best seasons. If the gamble pays off, it will add a potent bat to a San Diego lineup that is already quite dangerous.

Cruz is strictly a designated hitter at this point in his career, having taking the field only once in the past four seasons, which was seven innings of first base action for the Rays in 2021. It’s possible that Cruz and the left-handed hitting Matt Carpenter could platoon in the designated hitter role, but Carpenter is also capable of playing some first base and outfield, giving manager Bob Melvin some ability to get them both into the lineup, if he’s so inclined.

Financially, the Padres have shot their payroll up to new heights this winter. Roster Resource calculates their spending at $250MM, which would easily be a franchise record. The figures at Cot’s Baseball Contracts have their previous high at $211MM, which was last year. Perhaps more importantly, the club is set to be a luxury tax payor for a third straight season, having also paid the competitive balance tax in 2021 and 2022. Roster Resource pegs their CBT number at $267MM, well beyond the $233MM base threshold and the second $253MM threshold. As a third-time payor in the second tax bracket, they’re currently slated for a 62% tax on any extra spending. If they go beyond the third line, which is $273MM, the rate jumps all the way to 95% and their top pick in the 2024 draft would be dropped by ten slots.

Héctor Gómez of Z101 Digital first reported the two sides were in agreement on a one-year deal. Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the $1MM salary.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Sal Bando Passes Away

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Longtime former big leaguer and executive Sal Bando passed away yesterday at age 78.  Bando played with the Athletics franchise from 1966-76 and then with the Brewers from 1977-81 before becoming Milwaukee’s general manager for the 1992-99 seasons.

As per Bando’s family, “It is with a heavy heart, the Bando family is sad to announce the passing of its beloved husband and father, Sal, who last night lost his battle with cancer that began over five years ago. Sandy, Sal’s wife of 54 years, and sons Sal Jr., Sonny and Stef, send their love to family, friends and fans who mourn the loss of a humble and faithful man.”

Bando was a sixth-round pick for the then-Kansas City Athletics in the 1965 draft, and he broke into the majors the next season.  By 1968, Bando had become the starting third baseman for the A’s in their inaugural season in Oakland, and he quickly became a key member of a budding dynasty.  From 1969-74, Bando hit .265/.376/.445 with 141 homers, and his 34.7 fWAR was the fifth-highest of any player in the majors.  That six-year period saw Bando make four All-Star teams, finish in the top four of AL MVP voting on three occasions (including a second-place finish to teammate Vida Blue in 1971), and win three World Series rings as the A’s three-peated from 1972-74.

There was no shortage of controversy on and off the field for those Athletics clubs, and yet Bando was a rock of stability as the team’s captain. However, Bando had his own share of issues with A’s owner Charlie Finley, stemming from contract disputes and Bando’s increasing leadership role with the MLB Players Association.  After the 1976 season, Bando left the A’s as a free agent to sign a five-year deal with the Brewers, beginning the next chapter of his career.

While Bando’s didn’t match his production from his Oakland heyday, he was still a contributor to a Brewers team that had four straight winning seasons from 1978-81, which included a postseason appearance in 1981.  Bando was only a part-time player in 1981, and decided to retire after 16 MLB seasons in order to transition into a new role in the Brewers’ front office.  Bando worked as a special assistant to general manager Harry Dalton from 1982 until Bando himself was named to the top job himself following the 1991 season.  Unfortunately, Bando’s tenure as GM included only one winning season, and he resigned the job partway through the 1999 campaign.

We at MLBTR send our condolences to Bando’s family, friends, and teammates.

Twins, Marlins Swap Luis Arraez For Pablo Lopez In Four-Player Trade

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Months of rumors about the Marlins’ rotation have finally resulted in some action, as the Marlins have traded right-hander Pablo Lopez, top infield prospect Jose Salas and outfield prospect Byron Chourio to the Twins in exchange for reigning AL batting champion Luis Arraez, per announcements from both clubs.

The core of the trade, for immediate purposes, will see the Twins swap out three years of Arraez for two seasons of Lopez, who’ll immediately be an upgrade to their rotation. The 26-year-old Lopez has come into his own as a quality big league starter over the past three seasons, pitching to a 3.52 ERA with a 25% strikeout rate, a 7% walk rate and a 47.4% ground-ball rate in 340 innings.

Lopez has dealt with some injury issues in his career, thrice landing on the injured list due to shoulder strains. The most recent of those three injuries came in the summer of 2021 and wiped out more than two months of Lopez’s season, but he was injury-free in 2022 when pitching to a career-high 180 innings over the life of 32 starts. Last year’s performance netted Lopez a still eminently affordable $5.45MM salary. He’ll be due one more raise in arbitration in the 2023-24 offseason before reaching free agency following the 2024 campaign — barring an extension, of course.

The newly acquired Lopez will step into a Twins rotation that also includes Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan and Tyler Mahle. Though it was easy to wonder whether Lopez could push Kenta Maeda into a bullpen role after he missed the entire 2022 season on the heels of internal brace surgery on his right elbow in Sept. 2021, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes tweets that Maeda will remain a starter.

The likeliest odd man out of conventional five-man rotation is 27-year-old Bailey Ober, but the towering righty has pitched to a sharp 3.82 ERA in 31 starts to begin his big league career — including a 3.21 mark in 56 innings last season. (Ober missed more than three months due to a severe groin strain.) Alternatively, the Twins could look to deploy a six-man rotation that would help them manage Maeda’s workload and hopefully lead to better health among a starting staff that was generally hampered by injury throughout the 2022 season.

Meanwhile, with Arraez now subtracted from the Twins’ lineup, they’ll lose their leadoff man, one of their best hitters and one of their primary options at first base and designated hitter. His departure likely opens the door for 25-year-old Alex Kirilloff to slot in as the primary first baseman. Kirilloff, a former first-round pick, ranked as one of the sport’s 10 to 15 best prospects prior to his big league debut, but he’s now undergone wrist surgery in each of the past two seasons, derailing the start to his career. There’s quite a bit of upside there, but quite a bit of risk as well. It’s always possible the Twins look to add another established hitter to help soften the blow of losing Arraez, but the first base and DH markets in free agency have been largely picked over, so if that’s the route they choose, it’ll likely have to come via another trade.

On the other side of the swap, the Marlins will get a left-handed bat to help balance out a heavily right-handed lineup. Arraez brings to Miami perhaps the most impeccable bat-to-ball skills in Major League Baseball, having fanned in just 8.3% of his plate appearances since debuting as a 22-year-old back in 2019. He doesn’t walk at an especially high clip, but Arraez’s mark of 8.7% is still higher than both his strikeout rate and this past season’s league-average 8.2% walk rate.

Arraez, 26 in April, hit .316/.375/.420 with a career-high eight home runs in 2022 and is a lifetime .314/.374/.410 hitter in the Major Leagues. His contact skills are second to none and will likely always allow him to hit for a high average, but the rest of his game is rather limited. Arraez is lacking in power, evidenced by a career .096 ISO (slugging minus batting average), and his average sprint speed is below average, per Statcast.

While he debuted as a second baseman, defensive struggles have left Arraez as something of a position-less nomad. He’s bounced between second base, first base, third base and left field, delivering lackluster defensive grades at each of those spots other than first base. He’ll primarily play second base in Miami, with general manager Kim Ng subsequently announcing that Jazz Chisholm Jr. is moving to center field.

Like Lopez, Arraez has some worrying injury issues on his resume. A torn ACL during his prospect days torched his 2017 season, and he’s been on the injured list three times since Opening Day 2020 due to knee troubles as well. Arraez also spent a week on the 7-day concussion IL in 2021 and missed nearly three weeks of that season due to a shoulder strain.

Arraez is arbitration-eligible for the second time this offseason and, as a Super Two player, still has two years of arbitration remaining beyond the current campaign. He and the Twins couldn’t come to terms on an agreement prior to last week’s deadline to exchange arbitration figures; the Twins filed at a $5MM mark, while Arraez’s camp countered with a $6.1MM submission. Now that he’s with a new team, it’s possible Arraez could agree to a one-year deal somewhere between those points, or perhaps even discuss a lengthier pact. If not, his subsequent arbitration raises will take his salary north of $10MM by his final year of club control, in 2025.

For the Marlins, dropping Lopez from the rotation positions them to deploy a starting five of Sandy Alcantara, Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett, with several intriguing arms still waiting in the wings behind that quintet. Arraez will deepen and strengthen what’s been a lackluster Miami lineup, and the organization’s rotation depth is strong enough to withstand the loss of Lopez.

There’s little doubting, however, that the defense will suffer from both the acquisition of Arraez and last week’s trade of Miguel Rojas. The Marlins now look set to play Joey Wendle at shortstop, while Chisholm will have to learn a brand new center field position on the fly. Overall, the gambit of dropping Rojas and adding Arraez in the name of balancing and improving the lineup could have the unfortunate side effect of dropping Miami from a middle-of-the-pack defensive club to one of the worst in the National League.

The prospects in the deal are both long-term plays for the Twins, making them somewhat curious secondary pieces for a team that’s clearly bidding for immediate contention in the wake of their stunning deal to re-sign Carlos Correa. That said, recent trades for Mahle, Gray and others have thinned out the Twins’ system in considerable fashion, so backfilling with some youthful talent helps straddle the line of building for both the short- and long-term.

Salas is particularly well regarded, originally signing for a $2.8MM bonus and currently ranking fourth in Miami’s system at Baseball America. He’s a shortstop for the time being, though BA’s scouting report suggests a move to third base is possible, depending on the extent to which his still-lean frame grows. The switch-hitting Salas batted .250/.339/.384 against vastly older competition in 2022, splitting the year between Class-A and Class-A Advanced despite only turning 19 this past April.

Salas connected on nine homers and swiped 33 bases in 109 games. Scouting reports on Salas tout his work ethic, his feel for contact and the potential for at least average power. He’ll immediately become one of the Twins’ top overall prospects, but he won’t add any value to their 2023 club (aside from perhaps giving them more flexibility when it comes to negotiating additional trades).

Chourio is even younger, having just signed as an amateur out of Venezuela one year and five days ago. Despite playing the season at just 17 years old, the switch-hitting outfielder took the Dominican Summer League by storm, raking at a .344/.429/.410 clip with a homer, nine doubles, 19 steals and nearly as many walks (25) as strikeouts (27) in 217 plate appearances.

Chourio won’t even turn 18 until May, so even wildly optimistic projections would have him three years away from being a legitimate big league possibility, and it’s quite likely that he’s even further off than that. Still, there’s plenty to like about him despite the lack of proximity to the Majors. In addition to his eye-catching pro debut, Baseball America’s Ben Badler touted Chourio’s physical projection, strong throwing arm, center field instincts and balanced swing when reviewing the Marlins’ international signing class last year.

Today’s trade puts an end to months of speculation and rumors regarding Lopez, who finally knows where he’ll spend at least the next two seasons of his career. It remains possible, given Miami’s depth and the needs they have elsewhere on the roster, that they could further tap into that group in an effort to bolster the lineup and reshape an increasingly questionable defense. On the Twins’ end of things, Lopez isn’t clearly better than any of their in-house options, but they’ll add another mid-rotation arm to a starting staff deep in comparable talents, helping to safeguard against injury and adding some stability beyond the current season, when each of Gray, Mahle and Maeda can become free agents. They’ll also restock a farm system that’s been taxed by recent trades, but the swap feels more like a next step than the final piece of an offseason puzzle.

Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes of The Athletic first reported the two teams were progressing toward a deal involving Arraez and Lopez. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the deal was done. Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald reported the names of the two prospects going back to Minnesota (Twitter links).

Marlins To Move Jazz Chisholm To Center Field

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The Marlins made their long-awaited swap of a starting pitcher for a hitter this afternoon, sending Pablo López to Minnesota as part of a deal for Luis Arraez. Shortly after the trade was finalized, Miami general manager Kim Ng told reporters (including Craig Mish of SportsGrid) the newly-acquired infielder would take over as the primary second baseman. All-Star Jazz Chisholm Jr. will move from the keystone to center field.

It’s an interesting gambit for Miami, who’ll indirectly address their uncertain center field mix with today’s trade. Arraez has plenty of experience as a second baseman. He came up through the minors at the position and has logged more MLB innings there than at any other position. Over parts of four seasons, Arraez has spent a bit more than 1200 innings at the keystone.

Public defensive metrics have been mixed on his effectiveness. Defense Runs Saved rated him as nine runs below average in just 390 innings there as a rookie in 2019. Over the three seasons since then, DRS has pegged him as a slightly better than average second baseman. Statcast hasn’t been quite so optimistic. While it also feels he’s improved since a poor rookie showing — an estimated -7 runs in 2019 — it has rated him a little below par in two of the last three years.

Statcast has graded Arraez’s arm strength as slightly above-average for the position. Scouts have raised questions about his lateral quickness and athleticism since his time as a prospect, though. Minnesota pushed him primarily to first base work last season, starting him 31 times at the keystone compared to 60 times at first base (with a handful of games at third also mixed in). Of course, Minnesota’s signing of Carlos Correa solidified shortstop and ensured Jorge Polanco would play almost exclusively at second base. The Twins felt more comfortable with Polanco’s glove than Arraez’s up the middle, but it’s possible they’d have given the latter more second base time if they hadn’t landed one of the sport’s best shortstops.

It does come as a surprise to see Miami move Chisholm out of the middle infield. The 24-year-old (25 next month) established himself as the organization’s top position player with a .254/.325/.535 first half before suffering a season-ending stress fracture in his back. He also later underwent surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his right knee.

Signed as a shortstop prospect out of the Bahamas, Chisholm has only ever played the middle infield as a professional. He’ll take on the outfield on the fly during the upcoming season, with a month-plus of Spring Training action to acclimate to the new position.

With zero outfield experience, it’s impossible to know how Chisholm will take to the different reads and angles he’ll need to learn as an outfielder. Miami is clearly confident he’ll polish those aspects of his game quickly while relying on his elite athleticism in the interim. Chisholm was long credited by scouts with plus speed, and Statcast placed him in the league’s 94th percentile in that regard last season. He would’ve tied for 19th among 74 center fielders in sprint speed, so he certainly shouldn’t have issue covering the spacious outfield at Marlins Park from that perspective.

Prospect evaluators also praised Chisholm for an above-average throwing arm. He hasn’t shown that at the MLB level, though it’s not fair to compare his throwing speeds as a second baseman to those of center fielders. Chisholm obviously had quicker releases and much shorter distances to throw on the right side of the infield than he will from center field.

It’s a gamble for the Fish nonetheless, given the challenge of projecting how quickly he’ll develop the kind of reads needed to be a solid defensive center fielder. Yet it’s one Miami will take after missing out on their chances to directly upgrade the position from outside the organization. The free agent market at the position was mostly limited to depth players beyond Brandon Nimmo, Cody Bellinger and Kevin Kiermaier. Trades only offered a few more obvious candidates, with the Pirates sticking to a massive asking price on Bryan Reynolds and even reports of a somewhat significant ask from the Royals on a glove-first option like Michael A. Taylor.

Rather than run things back with players like Jesús Sánchez, Bryan De La Cruz and JJ Bleday — all of whom are better suited in the corner outfield — they’ll turn things over to Chisholm. Their younger outfielders will vie for a spot in the corner opposite Avisaíl García, while Arraez looks like to be joined by Joey Wendle, Jean Segura and Garrett Cooper in the primary infield.

Pirates Sign Andrew McCutchen

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Andrew McCutchen’s career has come full circle. The Pirates on Friday formally announced that they’ve re-signed the franchise icon to a one-year contract for the 2023 season. McCutchen will reportedly earn a $5MM salary on the deal.

“We are thrilled to be able to reunite with Andrew,” Pirates owner Bob Nutting said in a statement within today’s press release. “His return just feels right. It is right for our team, for Andrew and his family, for our fans and for the game of baseball. Andrew is a special player and person. It is going to be exciting to again see him take the field wearing 22 in the black and gold.”

It’s a feel-good story for Bucs fans, who’ll surely give the five-time All-Star and 2013 National League MVP a hero’s welcome in his return to PNC Park. The Pirates selected McCutchen, now 36 years old, with the No. 11 overall pick in the 2005 draft. He immediately ranked among the sport’s top overall prospects after a strong post-draft showing in the minors in ’05, and by 2009 he’d reached the Majors and played his way into a fourth-place Rookie of the Year finish in the National League, hitting .286/.365/.471.

That served as a stepping stone into stardom for McCutchen, who’d spend the first nine seasons of his career in black and gold, hitting a combined .291/.379/.487 with 203 home runs, 292 doubles, 44 triples and 171 stolen bases. A true cornerstone player, McCutchen led the Pirates to their three most recent postseason appearances, in 2013, 2014 and 2015 — each a Wild Card berth. Pittsburgh only advanced in one of those three seasons, topping the Reds in a one-game Wild Card showdown in 2013 before falling to the Cardinals in that year’s NLDS.

McCutchen signed an early extension with Pittsburgh — a six-year, $51.5MM contract with a club option for a seventh season. That gave the Bucs some extra club control and cost certainty over a player who was then the face of the franchise, but as is so often the case with the Pirates and other low-payroll clubs, McCutchen surfaced as a trade candidate in the late stages of that contract. Nearly six years after that extension was signed, McCutchen was traded to the Giants in what was an unpopular move at the time but now looks like perhaps the best swap in former GM Neal Huntington’s tenure. In order to acquire the final year of McCutchen’s contract, the Giants parted with right-hander Kyle Crick and the man who eventually replaced McCutchen in the outfield: current center fielder Bryan Reynolds.

Since leaving the Pirates and entering his mid-30s, McCutchen’s production has begun to wane. He proved plenty productive in a 2018 season split between the Giants and Yankees — enough to land a three-year, $50MM contract with the Phillies. The first season of that deal saw continued production early on, but McCutchen suffered a torn ACL that June, missed the remainder of the season, and has since settled in closer to league-average in terms of offensive output. Over the past three seasons, he’s a .234/.325/.417 hitter — about three percent better than league average, by measure of wRC+.

McCutchen spent the 2022 campaign with Milwaukee and scuffled to a career-low .237/.316/.384 batting line in 580 trips to the plate. Even as McCutchen’s bat began to slow down in his post-Pirates days, he remained a potent threat against left-handed pitching, hitting southpaws at a .291/.407/.567 slash from 2019-21. However, that trend also dipped with the Brewers in 2022, as McCutchen turned in a tepid .221/.303/.434 line even when holding the platoon advantage. The Pirates will hope that was more of a BABIP-driven anomaly (.248) than the beginning of a true decline.

McCutchen served as the Brewers’ primary option at designated hitter last season (82 games) but also logged 50 games in the outfield. He hasn’t topped 93 innings of center field work since 2017, his last year with the Pirates, though, and at 36 years old it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll return to logging meaningful time at his former position.

There will naturally be some speculation about the signing of McCutchen and whether it serves as a portent for a subsequent trade of Reynolds, who requested one earlier this offseason due to a sizable gap in extension negotiations with the team. However, logic dictates that there’s no real connection here; McCutchen can’t play center field regularly at this point in his career, and even if Reynolds were traded, the Bucs would surely reallocate much of that playing time to younger outfield options they hope can be part of the team’s core moving forward.

Rather, McCutchen will likely get occasional looks at designated hitter, though with Pittsburgh already acquiring first basemen Ji-Man Choi and Carlos Santana this offseason, one of those two figures to be the main option at DH. McCutchen gives the Pirates’ outfield mix a complementary right-handed bat to pair with lefty-swinging corner options like Jack Suwinski, Cal Mitchell and Canaan Smith-Njigba, but his impact on the decision of whether to trade or retain Reynolds ranges between minimal to nonexistent.

Beyond the contributions he’ll make on the field and the mentorship he’ll provide to several up-and-coming young Pirates, McCutchen will give fans plenty to cheer for in 2023 as he chases down multiple career milestones. He’s just 52 hits shy of reaching 2000 in his career, and he’s only 13 home runs shy of 300. McCutchen slugged 17 home runs last year and hasn’t hit fewer than 13 in a full season’s worth of games in his career to this point, so he’s a good bet to reach both round numbers this year.

The Pirates don’t project as contenders this season, and McCutchen isn’t likely to push them over that edge, but the team has spent more this winter than in recent years. Pittsburgh has acquired Choi (projected $4.35MM salary) and signed free agents Santana ($6.725MM), Rich Hill ($8MM), Austin Hedges ($5MM), Vince Velasquez ($3.15MM) and Jarlin Garcia ($2.5MM). It’s still a modest slate of expenditures by MLB standards, but McCutchen will take them north of $30MM in added payroll this winter. Contrast that with last offseason’s $16.225MM in spending and the $2.5MM total they spent in free agency during the 2020-21 offseason, and the Bucs are at least on an upward trajectory as they look to buttress their young roster with some steady veterans who can raise the team’s floor.

Even with those additions, Pittsburgh’s payroll won’t reach $80MM, so they only deserve so much praise for taking more earnest strides to put a winning product on the field. That said, that low number still creates the possibility for further veteran additions, be it via the free-agent or trade markets.

Regardless, the Pirates should be an improved team in 2023 — due both to contributions from those new acquisitions and to larger, more productive roles from prospects acquired over the course of the rebuild. There’s surely hope that hopeful cornerstone infielders Ke’Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz will take steps forward, and the Pirates could plausibly welcome names like Endy Rodriguez, Liover Peguero, Quinn Priester and others to the big leagues for lengthy auditions. The allure of young talent alone gave Pittsburgh fans something to look forward to in 2023, but the return of a beloved franchise figure and one of the best players in recent Pirates adds an extra layer of sentimentality and, hopefully, another productive bat.

Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette first reported the agreement and the terms of the contract.

Mariners Sign Tommy La Stella, Designate Justus Sheffield

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The Mariners announced that they have signed infielder Tommy La Stella to a one-year deal. To create room on the 40-man roster, left-hander Justus Sheffield was designated for assignment.

La Stella, who turns 34 later this month, has some strong seasons on his track record but is coming off a rough patch. From 2016 to 2020, he walked in 9.6% of his trips to the plate and struck out in just 10.6% of them. He only hit 29 home runs over those five years but produced a batting line of .282/.358/.435. That production amounted to a wRC+ of 114, indicating he was 14% better than league average.

He parlayed that strong run of play into a three-year, $18.75MM contract with the Giants going into 2021. Unfortunately, things started going poorly for La Stella as soon as the ink dried on that deal. He only got into 76 games in 2021 due to various ailments and hit just .250/.308/.405 for a wRC+ of 93. He underwent achilles surgery in October, which was originally reported as occurring on his left achilles but was reported almost a year later to have been on both of them, per Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic.

Things got even worse in 2022, as injuries limited him to just 60 games on the season and he spent most of those as a designated hitter. He only took the field for 76 innings all year, getting brief amounts of time at first, second and third base. He hit just .239/.282/.350 for a wRC+ of 78. Though there was still one year left on his contract, the Giants cut bait and released him.

That makes this essentially a no-risk move for the Mariners, since the Giants are on the hook for the $11.5MM that’s still owed to La Stella. The M’s will pay him the prorated league minimum for any time he’s on the roster, with that amount being subtracted from San Francisco’s tab.

Though La Stella hardly took the field last year, he’s played more second base than anywhere else in his career. The Mariners were looking bolster their middle infield this offseason and already did so by trading for Kolten Wong. If the club views La Stella as a viable defender, he potentially gives them some extra cover there while adding a left-handed bat into their position player mix. Some of the clubs most obvious designated hitter candidates are right-handed, such as Teoscar Hernández and AJ Pollock. La Stella hits from the left side and has traditional platoon splits, having produced a 105 wRC+ against righties but just an 87 against lefties.

Though there’s no real financial cost for the M’s, they are paying the price of potentially losing Sheffield, who turns 27 in May. He was a first round selection of Cleveland in 2014 but was twice traded in headline-grabbing deals. He went to the Yankees in 2016 as part of the Andrew Miller trade and then went to Seattle in the 2018 James Paxton deal, frequently appearing on top prospect lists in that time as well.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to live up to that pedigree thus far. He’s pitched 186 innings over the past five seasons but has just a 5.47 ERA to show for it. He’s gotten grounders at a healthy 49.5% clip but his 18.2% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate are both worse than league average. He hasn’t been faring much better in the minors either. He made 24 starts for Triple-A Tacoma last year and posted a 6.99 ERA in that time. The Rainiers play in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League but his rate stats were all fairly similar to his big league work and advanced metrics were only slightly kinder, such as a 6.27 FIP and 5.64 xFIP.

It seems those poor results have been enough to push him off Seattle’s roster. They will now have one week to trade him or pass him through waivers. He still has one option year remaining and just over two years of service, which could make him appealing to a club that thinks he can recapture the form that made him such a touted prospect.

Twins Sign Chris Paddack To Extension

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On Wednesday evening, the Twins announced a three-year contract with right-hander Chris Paddack. The deal covers his final two seasons of arbitration eligibility and buys out what would’ve been his first free agent season in 2025. Paddack reportedly receives a $2.5MM salary for the coming season. He’ll be guaranteed $2.525MM in 2024 and $7.5MM during the ’25 campaign. The Boras Corporation client would earn an additional $500K for reaching both 140 and 150 innings in 2025, with another $750K available at the 160 and 170-inning thresholds.

Paddack, who turned 27 earlier this month, was acquired by the Twins last April in a deal with the Padres that also saw Taylor Rogers and Emilio Pagan change uniforms. Unfortunately for the Twins, Paddack managed just 22 1/3 innings with the club before he landed on the injured list with an elbow issue. Paddack later underwent Tommy John surgery in May, with August 2023 as the reported target for his return to big league play.

Paddack was an instant success in his 2019 debut season with the Padres, posting a 3.33 ERA (126 ERA+) with a 3.95 FIP across 26 starts and racked up 153 strikeouts in just 140 2/3 innings of work. The shortened 2020 season saw him struggle mightily, however, as his ERA ballooned to 4.73 (89 ERA+) and his FIP similarly rose to 5.02 across 59 innings. One factor in this was his ghastly HR/FB rate of 25.0%, nearly double his 14.6% rate from 2019.

His home run rate returned to normal in 2021, but Paddack continued to struggle. In 108 1/3 innings in 2021, Paddack posted an ERA of 5.07 (77 ERA+), the worst of his career. Paddack’s 3.72 FIP in 2021 indicates that there may have been some bad luck built into those results, but there was reason for concern nonetheless: his strikeout rate had plummeted. After striking out 9.8 batters per 9 in his debut 2019 season, that rate dipped to 8.8 in 2020 and then dipped again in 2021, all the way down to 8.2, good for a strikeout rate in just the 35th percentile that year.

Of course, it should be noted that Paddack struggled with injuries throughout the 2021 season, which certainly could have impacted his performance. Paddack spent over two months on the injured list in 2021 across three separate IL stints, suggesting he may not have been fully healthy even when he was on the mound that season. Between his youth and injury history, there’s reason to believe Paddack could return to a form more in line with his 2019 debut once he’s fully healthy, an outcome the Twins are betting on with this deal.

In extending Paddack, the Twins provide the right-hander with some security during his rehab process and return to the pitcher’s mound, while buying themselves an extra year of team control for a pitcher with substantial upside. Should Paddack return to the mound late in the season, he will join a somewhat full rotation mix that currently includes Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, Kenta Maeda, and Bailey Ober. With that being said, Gray, Mahle, and Maeda are all set to hit the free agent market following the 2023, leaving Paddack as a likely key cog in Minnesota’s 2024 rotation.

With four years of service time, Paddack was set to be eligible for arbitration both this offseason and next, with MLBTR contributor Matt Schwartz having projected him for $2.4MM during this round of arbitration. With this deal, Paddack forgoes a potential raise through the arbitration process next year in addition to a year of free agency, though he is still set hit the market at age 30 following the 2025 campaign. A cost-controlled starter like Paddack is a huge boon to Minnesota’s payroll flexibility going forward- while their projected payroll for the 2024 season is just $65MM per RosterResource (prior to the inclusion of arb-eligible players on the roster), the Twins are, as previously mentioned, set to lose three members of their rotation this offseason, potentially in addition to two starting outfielders in Joey Gallo and Max Kepler. While youngsters like Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach could step up in the outfield, it seems almost certain that the Twins will have to supplement their core in free agency next year. Cost certainty with Paddack could help them be more aggressive in making those additions and maximizing the early years of Carlos Correa’s new six-year deal with the club.

Matt Braun of Twins Daily was first to report the Twins and Paddack had agreed to a three-year contract. Dan Hayes of the Athletic was first with the $12.5MM guarantee. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the salary breakdown. The Associated Press was first with the specifics of the incentives.

Mets To Sign Tommy Pham

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Jan. 20: Pham has passed his physical, tweets Nightengale. The outfielder will earn a $200K bonus upon reaching 225 plate appearances with the Mets, and he’ll unlock additional $200K bonuses for every 25th plate appearance thereafter, all the way up through 450 plate appearances. With the physical complete, the Mets should announce the deal sooner than later.

Jan. 18, 10:26am: It’s a one-year, $6MM contract for Pham, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds that the contract contains $2MM of available incentives and is expected to be finalized Thursday.

10:08am: The Mets and Pham have agreed to terms on a contract, Martino tweets. The deal is pending a physical.

9:44am: The Mets have an offer on the table to free-agent outfielder Tommy Pham and is optimistic about completing a deal, reports SNY’s Andy Martino. The Mets also made offers to Andrew McCutchen and Adam Duvall, per the report, but McCutchen preferred to go back to his original team in Pittsburgh while Duvall had the opportunity for more playing time in Boston.

Pham, 35 in March, split the 2022 season between Cincinnati and Boston, batting a combined .236/.312/.374 with 17 home runs and eight stolen bases in 622 plate appearances. It was a down season overall, but Pham’s line included a stout .273/.338/.446 batting line against left-handed pitching.

Additionally, Pham’s batted-ball profile also serves as a portent for increased production in the future. His 92.2 mph average exit velocity ranked in the 93rd percentile of all big league hitters, while his 48.2% hard-hit rate ranked in the 89th percentile, per Statcast. Even if bat doesn’t bounce all the way back to the levels those numbers suggest, there’s a good chance he can be a useful platoon option. Also, Pham also still drew favorable rankings for his arm strength in the outfield (74th percentile) and average sprint speed (66th percentile). Defensive metrics panned his glovework on the whole (0 DRS, -6 OAA), but the tools are there for him to rebound in that capacity as well.

From 2015-19, Pham was one of the game’s most underrated outfielders, batting a combined .277/.373/.472 (130 wRC+) with a hefty 12.2% walk rate against a 23.3% strikeout rate. He’s been a slightly below-average hitter overall since that time, but given his speed, arm strength and solid production against lefties, he’s a nice bat to have on the bench.

Pham is mostly limited to left field at this point in his career — he has just 91 innings in center field an seven in right field since 2018 — but he’ll give the Mets some outfield insurance while perhaps serving as a right-handed complement to lefty DH Daniel Vogelbach. That’s especially true if the Mets look to move on from Darin Ruf after a disappointing couple months in Queens following last year’s acquisition at the trade deadline.

While Pham himself might not be a backup option to Brandon Nimmo in center field, adding him to the mix provides the Mets with some additional cover in the event of an outfield injury. For instance, both left fielder Mark Canha and (especially) right fielder Starling Marte have experience in center field, so either could shift to center should Nimmo need a day off or a trip to the IL, with Pham then slotting into left field and Marte/Canha covering the other two outfield slots.

The Mets also have 24-year-old Khalil Lee as a lefty-hitting outfielder who can fill in at all three spots, though he has a minor league option remaining. Pham’s addition creates the possibility of sending Lee to Triple-A Syracuse for regular playing time — a luxury the team may not have previously been able to afford. Previously, the Mets’ only outfielders on the 40-man roster all projected to be on the big league roster as well, so the extra depth fills a clear need.

On top of Pham’s $6MM, the Mets owe a 90% luxury tax of $5.4MM, bringing their total tab for the signing to $11.4MM. New York’s projected bottom-line payroll for the 2023 season jumps to a bit more than $356MM, with about $374MM in luxury-tax considerations on the books. That puts them in well into the top luxury bracket and sets the stage for the Mets to be a third-time payor in the 2024 season, which point they’d owe an even steeper 110% tax on every dollar spent above the top line. Owner Steve Cohen has shown little concern with such penalties, however, and Pham’s luxury hit will be a relative drop in the bucket compared to the sum the Mets were planning to pay Carlos Correa before concerns regarding his medicals scuttled the 12-year deal between the two parties.

Brewers Sign Brian Anderson

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Jan. 18: Craig Mish of the Miami Herald reports that the deal is for one-year and $3.5MM, with up to $2MM in incentives.

Jan. 17: The Brewers are in agreement on a deal with free agent third baseman/corner outfielder Brian Anderson, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). The deal is pending a physical. Anderson is a client of CAA Sports.

Anderson, 30 in May, had spent his entire career as a member of the Marlins. Selected in the third round of the 2014 draft, the University of Arkansas product reached the majors a little more than three years later. He debuted at the tail end of the 2017 season and established himself as Miami’s everyday third baseman the following year.

That marked the first of four straight years in which Miami would pencil him in at the hot corner on Opening Day. For his first three seasons, the right-handed hitter was a productive player on both sides of the ball. He hit at an above-average level every year between 2018-20, showing roughly average plate discipline and contact skills with quality hard contact numbers. Miami’s cavernous ballpark didn’t do him many favors from a home run perspective but he topped 30 doubles in both 2018 and ’19.

Overall, Anderson hit .266/.350/.436 in just over 1400 plate appearances through his first three full seasons. He paired that quality offense with average to slightly above par marks at the hot corner from public defensive metrics. While he wasn’t a star, Anderson looked the part of a solid regular who could factor into the Miami lineup at least throughout his arbitration seasons.

The past two years have been disappointing, though, largely thanks to injuries. Anderson missed extended chunks of the 2021 campaign with a pair of subluxations in his left shoulder. In 67 games when healthy enough to play, he managed only a .249/.337/.378 line. He had another pair of injured list stints last season — first for lower back spasms in June, then a six-week absence late in the summer for another left shoulder issue. Anderson appeared in 98 games but put up a career-worst .222/.311/.346 line through 383 trips to the plate.

Over the past two years, he’s hit a below-average .233/.321/.359 through 647 plate appearances. His strikeouts have gone up slightly but the greater concern is the lack of damage he’s done on contact. Anderson’s hard contact percentage has dipped a bit from its 2018-19 peak. He’s collected a combined 25 doubles over the past two seasons after excelling at hitting the gaps for his first few years against MLB pitching. In the wake of that diminished production, Miami non-tendered him to kick off this winter instead of bringing him back on an arbitration salary projected around $5.2MM.

Once he hit free agency, Anderson became an intriguing buy-low target for other clubs. It’d certainly appear as though his production has been adversely affected by the shoulder concerns that have sent him to the IL a few times over the past couple years. The Brewers will hope an offseason of rest and a change of scenery will allow him to put his recent struggles behind him and recapture some of his early-career promise.

In addition to his roughly average defense at third base, Anderson has ample experience in the corner outfield. He’s played over 1500 MLB innings as an outfielder, with almost all of that work coming in right field. Public metrics have been split on his work on the grass. Defensive Runs Saved has credited him as eight runs better than average in the outfield over the course of his career. Statcast, on the other hand, has pegged him seven runs below par.

The Brewers presumably take the more favorable view of Anderson’s outfield glovework. Luis Urías is fairly well established as the third baseman in Milwaukee. Anderson offers some extra cover at the hot corner but has his clearest path to playing time in right field. Christian Yelich will man left field, while the Brewers looked set to turn center and right field over to Garrett Mitchell and Tyrone Taylor, respectively. Mitchell played well late in his rookie season but has only 28 MLB games under his belt. Taylor connected on 17 home runs while playing plus defense last year, earning a semi-regular role. Yet he also hit .233 with a below-average .286 on-base percentage, raising some questions about his ability to handle the offensive demands of an everyday right field job.

Anderson won’t necessarily bump Taylor from the starting lineup, but he adds another option to the mix for manager Craig Counsell. His right-handed bat also offers some extra balance to a lefty-swinging first base/designated hitter tandem of Jesse Winker and Rowdy Tellez, though Anderson himself has thus far fared better without the platoon advantage in his career.

On a one-year contract, Anderson is set to return to free agency next winter after surpassing the six-years service threshold during the 2023 campaign. Once finalized, Anderson will become the third major league signee of the offseason for Milwaukee. Wade Miley inked a one-year, $4.5MM guarantee, while outfielder Blake Perkins is on a pre-arbitration salary having never before played in the majors. Before accounting for Anderson’s money, Milwaukee projects for a 2023 payroll around $117MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. The club opened last season in the $132MM range, so there should still be room for more lower-cost additions for general manager Matt Arnold and his front office.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Marlins, Twins Continue To Discuss Trade Possibilities Involving Luis Arraez, Pablo Lopez

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The Marlins and Twins continue to explore trade possibilities involving Minnesota infielder Luis Arraez and Miami’s surplus of starting pitching, reports Dan Hayes of the Athletic. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first wrote last week that Arraez’s name had come up in discussions involving Marlins righty Pablo López but suggested the Twins were uninterested in parting with the infielder.

Hayes similarly hears that Minnesota isn’t willing to pull the trigger on a one-for-one swap of Arraez and López. However, Hayes characterizes Minnesota as willing to entertain larger possibilities involving Arraez and controllable starting pitching targets. While the Twins aren’t actively shopping him, they’re apparently keeping an open mind to broader trade permutations. There’s no indication anything is imminent, and Hayes notes that the sides haven’t directly spoken in several days even as a general line of communication between the clubs seemingly remains open.

The Marlins’ willingness to dealing from the rotation has dated back at least as far as the 2021-22 offseason. Miami has yet to make a major trade but is still generally expected to subtract a starter for an offensive addition between now and Opening Day.

Reports have suggested the Fish were amenable to offers on any of López, Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera. While there’s no indication that’s officially changed, it seems talks are focusing in on the most experienced member of the group. Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald wrote this afternoon that López has moved the forefront of Miami’s trade discussions around the league. According to the Herald, discussions on Rogers and Cabrera have “cooled” of late.

That’s not an especially surprising development. López is down to two seasons of remaining club control. Rogers and Luzardo are each controllable for four years, while Cabrera can be retained for another six seasons. That has made López the most straightforward trade candidate in the Miami rotation all along, although early reports this winter suggested the Fish might instead look towards a Rogers deal while keeping López in the fold.

Even with the comparatively lesser control window, López is a highly appealing trade chip for Miami general manager Kim Ng and her staff. The Venezuelan-born righty has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the last three seasons. He hasn’t walked more than 7.5% of batters faced in any of those campaigns and has posted at least a 23.6% strikeout rate in all three seasons. López sits in the 93-94 MPH range with his fastball and owns one of the game’s better changeups. He misses bats and keeps the ball on the ground at an above-average clip and generally manages solid results against right and left-handed hitters alike.

He’ll play the 2023 campaign on a $5.45MM salary after avoiding arbitration last week. The 26-year-old will be due one more raise the following year before hitting free agency over the 2024-25 offseason.

Acquiring a starter who’s controllable beyond next season is apparently on the wishlist for a Minnesota club that could see a notable chunk of its rotation depart next winter. Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda are all slated for free agency after the 2023 campaign. Of their current starting five, only Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are controllable beyond next season. Minnesota extended their window of control over righty Chris Paddack by an extra season last week, signing him through the end of 2025. He’ll likely get another rotation opportunity at some point but is currently on the mend from the second Tommy John procedure of his career. Young pitchers like Simeon Woods Richardson, Josh Winder and Louie Varland could play their way into the mix at some point but are far from established.

While it’s easy to see the appeal of adding a quality pitcher like López who’d stick around through 2024, Minnesota remains unwilling to do so in a straight swap for Arraez. The left-handed hitter is arbitration eligible for one season longer than López, controllable through 2025. His 2023 salary remains undefined — he and the club look to be headed for an arbitration hearing after not reaching an agreement last week — but will check in between $5MM and $6.1MM.

Arraez is fresh off his first All-Star campaign. He claimed the American League batting title by hitting .316 and reached base at a .375 clip overall. The 25-year-old only hit eight home runs in 603 plate appearances but is among the sport’s best pure hitters. No qualified hitter struck out less often than Arraez, who went down on strikes in only 7.1% of his trips. He was one of six qualified batters with more walks than strikeouts, drawing free passes at a decent 8.3% rate.

A second base prospect throughout his time in the minors, Arraez has assumed more of a bat-first utility role in recent years. Public defensive metrics have given him mixed reviews for his work at the keystone, and Minnesota turned to him more often at first base in deference to Jorge Polanco last season. Arraez can also play some third base and rotate through designated hitter. Miami has Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jean Segura to play second and third base, respectively. There’d be room for Arraez to join right-handed power bats Garrett Cooper and Jorge Soler in the first base/DH mix, and he’s the archetype of the high-contact bat the Miami front office has reportedly sought.

If Miami and the Twins can’t bridge the gap in their trade discussions, the Marlins would find no shortage of interest in López elsewhere. The Padres and Cardinals have also been linked to the hurler this offseason while a number of others checked in at last summer’s trade deadline. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch implied this afternoon (on Twitter) there wasn’t much momentum between the Fish and Cardinals on López right now, though, suggesting that Miami’s interest in St. Louis outfielder Lars Nootbaar has been rebuffed.

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