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Cubs To Sign Trey Mancini

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The Cubs have agreed to sign Trey Mancini to a two-year contract, according to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers (Twitter link).  Mancini, a client of the Frontline agency, can opt out of the deal following the 2023 season if he amasses at least 350 plate appearances in the first year of the contract, 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine reports (via Twitter).  Also from Levine, Mancini will earn $14MM in guaranteed money over the two years of the deal, and another $7MM is available in bonus clauses related to plate appearances.

Reports linking Mancini to the Cubs first surfaced in December, and even though Chicago addressed its first base need by signing Eric Hosmer just over a week ago, the Wrigleyville club maintained its interest in Mancini’s services.  Of course, Mancini can also play both corner outfield spots in addition to first base, and Mancini’s right-handed bat provides a nice complement to lefty-swingers Hosmer and Matt Mervis in the first base/DH mix.

As Rogers indicated in a follow-up tweet, Mervis might now be slated to begin 2023 in Triple-A, rather than immediately step into a regular role in the Cubs lineup in his first taste of MLB action.  Mervis is entering only his third season of affiliated baseball, and while Mervis more or less came out of nowhere to shred minor league pitching in 2022, it looks like the Cubs would prefer to ease Mervis into the big leagues, and rely more on established veterans like Mancini and Hosmer at least in the early part of the 2023 campaign.

After spending his entire career with the Orioles, Mancini is now playing for his third organization in less than six months, following the trade deadline move that sent Mancini from Baltimore to Houston.  Mancini’s time with the Astros paid off in the biggest form possible once Houston captured the World Series, though Mancini himself wasn’t a big part of that push to the championship.  Mancini hit only .176/.258/.364 over 186 plate appearances with the Astros during the regular season, and then had only a single hit over 24 PA in the playoffs.

With this underwhelming finish in mind, it isn’t surprising that Mancini and his representatives sought out an opt-out clause, as a more impressive platform year could set Mancini up nicely for a pricier contract next winter.  Mancini turns 31 in March, but even if he re-enters the market next winter in advance of his age-32 season, the veteran should still be in position to land a solid multi-year commitment if he returns to his old form.  Mancini hasn’t been in that top form since 2019, though obviously some very difficult circumstances have interfered in his career path.

After missing the entire 2020 season due to a battle with Stage 3 colon cancer, Mancini played in 147 games with the Orioles in 2021, winning AL Comeback Player Of The Year honors for his inspirational return.  Mancini got off to a strong start at the plate that year before fading down the stretch, as he had to get re-acclimated after missing a full season.  Mancini’s traditionally strong production at Camden Yards took a dip, as the right-handed hitter was naturally impacted by the Orioles’ decision to move back the left-field fences prior to the 2022 season.  The result was a modest .283/.338/.411 slash line over 198 PA at Camden Yards last year, well below his career norms.

All in all, Mancini has hit .247/.323/.412 over 1203 PA since the start of the 2021 campaign, translating to a 104 wRC+ that is only slightly above the league average.  Between the new dimensions in Baltimore and the midseason adjustment to playing in Houston, Mancini’s bat could re-awaken simply by playing his home games in the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field.  In addition, Mancini has now had a full and normal offseason, as even last winter’s preparations were interrupted by the lockout.

It has been a busy offseason for Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, who has aggressively added veteran talent in order to turn the Cubs back towards contention after most of the last two seasons were spent in a rebuild.  Like Mancini’s deal, most of the contracts have been shorter-term arrangements, such as a one-year deal with Cody Bellinger, or the Hosmer signing for a minimum salary (since the Padres are still on the hook for the remainder of Hosmer’s contract).

Beyond these shorter deals, Chicago also splurged in inking Dansby Swanson to a seven-year, $177MM contract and Jameson Taillon to a four-year deal worth $68MM.  Roster Resource projected the Cubs for roughly a $176.6MM payroll before Mancini’s $7MM average annual value was added to the mix, so there could be more spending capacity for further moves considering the Cubs spent well over the $200MM mark as recently as 2019.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

2023 MLB Arbitration Tracker

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Today is the deadline for players and teams to exchange figures in arbitration — an annual deadline that leads to a slew of one-year deals and, typically, a handful of multi-year deals.  In all likelihood, more than 100 players will agree to their salary for the 2023 season within the next few hours.  MLBTR is planning to make improvements on our old Arbitration Tracker tool, but that’s a goal for next year.  For 2023, we’ll put all of the agreements in this post.

Each player’s service time is in parentheses, and you can of course check back to see each player’s projected salary from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.  We’ll keep this updated throughout the day — refresh for updates — and break off some of the larger, more prominent agreements in separate entries.

Angels (9)

Astros (8)

Athletics (3)

Blue Jays (12)

Braves (8)

Brewers (14)

Cardinals (10)

Cubs (6)

Diamondbacks (6)

Dodgers (10)

Giants (10)

Guardians (7)

Marlins (9)

Mariners (6)

Mets (8)

Nationals (8)

Orioles (6)

Padres (8)

Phillies (8)

Pirates (6)

Rangers (5)

Rays (14)

Red Sox (8)

Reds (7)

Rockies (5)

Royals (9)

Tigers (4)

Twins (8)

White Sox (5)

Yankees (12)

Athletics Sign Shintaro Fujinami

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The Athletics announced the signing of right-hander Shintaro Fujinami to a one-year deal on Friday evening. The Japanese hurler reportedly receives a $3.25MM guarantee and can earn up to $1MM more in potential incentives. That deal also come with a 20% posting fee of $650K to be paid out to Fujinami’s former team, the Hanshin Tigers of Nippon Professional Baseball, which brings the Athletics’ total expenditure on the deal to $3.9MM. Oakland would also owe a 20% fee to the Tigers on any money Fujinami unlocks via incentives.

Fujinami, a hard-throwing 28-year-old, was posted by the Tigers back on December 1. A high school phenom from the same draft class as Shohei Ohtani, incredibly stepping right from high school ball into the Tigers’ rotation and as a 19-year-old rookie and pitching to a 2.75 ERA in 137 2/3 innings as a starter. For several years, he delivered standout results, pitching to a sub-3.00 ERA through his first four seasons as a professional and making the Central League All-Star team in each of those first four campaigns.

However, as Yakyu Cosmopolitan lays out in a video recap of Fujinami’s career that fans will want to check out (YouTube link, video in English), Fujinami was left on the mound to toss 161 pitches — far and away a career high — during his age-22 season in an outing that began with him yielding five runs in three innings. He’d already begun to display some worrying command issues prior to that outing, and the extent to which that outing might have impacted him can’t be known, but Fujinami began to oscillate between the Tigers’ first team (i.e. their Major League club) and their farm system beginning in 2017. Further struggles from 2017-21 caused his stock to fade substantially.

The 2022 season, though, has brought about something of a renaissance for Fujinami. The hard-throwing righty made 10 starts and six relief appearances with the Tigers’ top team, pitching to a 3.38 ERA in 66 2/3 innings. He fanned 23.6% of his opponents and, most crucially, turned in a career-low 7.6% walk rate. That was not only the best mark of Fujinami’s career but the first time since 2016 he’s posted a walk rate under 10%.

As a 6’6″ righty with an upper-90s heater that has reached triple digits and a slider that’s been a plus pitch in the past, Fujinami offers tantalizing potential. The recent struggles and repeated inability to locate the ball with any real consistency obviously limit his earning power, but big league scouts have had Fujinami on their radar since his high school days. The A’s make for a sensible team to roll the dice on catching lightning in a bottle with Fujinami’s impressive raw arsenal, given their spacious home park and status as a non-contender, which will afford them additional patience if the righty struggles to acclimate to North American ball early on.

With the A’s, Fujinami will step into a starting staff that includes Cole Irvin, Paul Blackburn and a host of fellow unproven options. Oakland signed journeyman right-hander Drew Rucinski to a one-year, $3MM deal on the heels of a terrific run in the Korea Baseball Organization, so it’s likely he and Fujinami will slot in behind Irvin and Blackburn. Candidates for the fifth spot on the staff will include out-of-options righty James Kaprielian and prospects Ken Waldichuk, Kyle Muller, JP Sears and Adrian Martinez. It’s at least possible the A’s will use a six-man group early in the season, though their exact plans will be dependent on both the health and performance of this group during Spring Training.

The NPB/MLB posting system allows a posted player to negotiate with all 30 MLB clubs; the player’s former team is subsequently entitled to a posting/release fee that’s equal to 20% of the first $25MM on a contract, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. Given that it’s a one-year deal, the A’s are on the hook for a release fee that’s 20% of the $3.25MM guaranteed to Fujinami. That fee will be paid to the team and is separate from the value of the contract paid to Fujinami himself.

Jon Morosi of MLB.com first reported the A’s and Fujinami were in ongoing contract discussions. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the A’s were signing Fujinami to a one-year deal. Bob Nightengale of USA Today was first to report the $3.25MM guarantee. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the $1MM in incentives.

Reds Sign Luke Weaver

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The Reds announced they’ve signed right-hander Luke Weaver to a one-year contract. Infielder Matt Reynolds was designated for assignment in a corresponding 40-man roster move. The Boras Corporation client will receive a $2MM base salary, tweets Mark Sheldon of MLB.com.

Weaver joins the fifth organization of his professional career. A first-round selection of the Cardinals in 2014, he broke into the majors with St. Louis two years later. After struggling through nine outings as a rookie, the former top prospect put up a 3.88 ERA through 60 1/3 innings in 2017. Weaver looked as if he might carve out a long-term rotation role for the Redbirds, but he stumbled to a 4.95 ERA across a career-high 136 1/3 frames the next season.

The following offseason, St. Louis packaged Weaver alongside Carson Kelly and Andrew Young to the Diamondbacks for Paul Goldschmidt. The move and subsequent five-year extension turned out brilliantly for St. Louis but didn’t pay off for the Snakes. That’s in large part because Weaver never cemented himself in the Arizona rotation.

Things started off encouragingly enough, as Weaver pitched to a 2.94 ERA in 12 starts in 2019. He posted strong peripherals but missed an extended chunk of time with forearm tightness. Arm injuries would unfortunately become a recurring theme for the Florida State product, who has lost notable portions of three of the last four seasons. The only recent fully healthy campaign came in 2020 with the shortened schedule. He took a full slate of 12 turns through the rotation that year but was bombed for a 6.58 ERA through 52 innings. He was limited to 13 starts in 2021 by a strained shoulder and lost a couple months early last season with inflammation in his throwing elbow.

Over three-plus seasons in the desert, Weaver pitched to a 4.72 ERA in just fewer than 200 innings. At last summer’s trade deadline, the Snakes flipped him to the Royals for infielder Emmanuel Rivera. Kansas City’s buy-low attempt didn’t go as hoped. Working exclusively in relief, Weaver allowed 15 runs in 19 2/3 innings. The Royals took him off the roster after the season. He briefly landed with the Mariners via waivers but Seattle non-tendered him within a couple weeks. That sent him to free agency for the first time, where he’ll try to right the ship in Cincinnati.

Over parts of seven MLB seasons, Weaver owns a 4.79 ERA in 450 2/3 innings. He’s struck out a solid 23.5% of opposing hitters against a manageable 7.5% walk percentage. That strikeout/walk profile has led to more favorable views from ERA estimators like FIP (3.96) and SIERA (4.08) than his bottom line ERA might suggest. An elevated .328 batting average on balls in play has plagued Weaver, though it’d be overly simplistic to attribute that entirely to poor luck. The 6’2″ hurler has given up plenty of hard contact throughout his career. Opponents have hit more than 40% of their batted balls hard (with an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater) in each of the last four seasons.

Primarily a fastball-changeup pitcher, Weaver has unsuccessfully tinkered with various breaking pitches over the years. He’s mixed in each of a slider, cutter and curveball throughout his MLB tenure but never seemed entirely comfortable with any of those offerings. Working almost exclusively out of the bullpen last season, he turned to his fastball or changeup roughly 90% of the time while occasionally deploying a slider as a third pitch against right-handed batters.

Weaver started just one of his 26 outings last season. He’d started 80 of 89 big league appearances before last year, though, and it seems the Reds will give him another shot at a rotation role. Cincinnati has Nick Lodolo, Hunter Greene and Graham Ashcraft — each of whom showed upside to varying degrees as rookies last season — penciled into three rotation spots. The final two are firmly up for grabs, with players like Luis Cessa, Justin Dunn and Connor Overton battling for rotation jobs as well. Weaver figures to have the inside track at one of the available spots, with Cessa having primarily been a reliever throughout his career and Dunn and Overton still having minor league options remaining.

The 29-year-old Weaver has over five years of major league service time. He can’t be optioned without his consent, so he’s a virtual lock to open the season on the MLB roster in some capacity. He’ll return to the free agent market again at year’s end, and the one-year term makes him an obvious midseason trade candidate if things click early in his Cincinnati tenure. The Reds are unlikely to hang around the playoff picture in 2023, making it likely they’d field offers on short-term veterans like Weaver and fellow free agent signee Wil Myers if those players perform well enough to draw interest from contenders.

Tacking on Weaver’s modest salary brings Cincinnati’s projected payroll up around $81MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That’s well below last year’s $114MM approximate Opening Day figure. General manager Nick Krall has spoken on multiple occasions about the payroll constraints facing the front office. It’s possible Cincinnati rolls the dice on another low-cost upside play or two with Spring Training a month away, but they’re unlikely to make any particularly noteworthy free agent additions. The bullpen and center field stand out as areas where Cincinnati could continue searching for smaller upgrades.

Reynolds, displaced by Weaver’s addition, landed in Cincinnati last April off waivers from the Mets. The out-of-options infielder held his roster spot all season, appearing in 92 games with Cincinnati. He tallied a new career high with 272 plate appearances, hitting .246/.320/.332 with a trio of home runs. Reynolds walked in nearly 10% of his plate appearances but went down on strikes roughly 29% of the time. While he made a fair amount of hard contact, a lofty 50.9% grounder rate muted his overall power impact.

The Reds will now have a week to trade the 32-year-old infielder or place him on waivers. Reynolds has cleared outright waivers twice previously in his career. That’d give him the right to refuse an outright assignment and test minor league free agency if he goes unclaimed again.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Padres Avoid Arbitration With Juan Soto, Josh Hader

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The Padres have avoided arbitration with two stars. San Diego and Juan Soto agreed to a $23MM contract, while they inked Josh Hader to a $14.1MM deal.

Aside from Shohei Ohtani — who agreed to a $30MM deal with the Angels at the end of last season — Soto is the highest-profile player in this year’s arbitration class. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for the highest salary of any arb-eligible player, forecasting him to land at $21.5MM. Soto comes in a bit above that and secures a little more than a $6MM raise on last season’s $17.1MM salary.

Acquired from Washington in one of the biggest deadline trades in MLB history, Soto posted a .236/.388/.390 line through his first 228 plate appearances with the Friars. That was below his usual otherworldly standards but still excellent output thanks to a massive 19.3% walk percentage and just a 14.9% strikeout rate. Including his first-half numbers in Washington, he hit .242/.401/.452 with 27 homers over 664 plate appearances.

The Friars will be able to control Soto for one additional season before he’d hit free agency after the 2024 campaign. He’s on track to reach the open market in advance of his age-26 season and trending towards a potential record-setting deal. San Diego surely has interest in working out a long-term agreement with the Boras Corporation client. Soto declined a 15-year, $440MM extension offer from Washington before being traded, ostensibly setting the floor in any negotiations with the Friars.

Hader landed with the Padres in a massive deadline deal as well. Acquired from the Brewers in a surprising swap, he struggled to a 7.31 ERA through his first 16 innings in San Diego. A spike in walks played a role in those anomalous struggles, though Hader was also plagued by an unsustainably high .372 batting average on balls in play against him. He’d only managed a 4.24 ERA over 34 innings with Milwaukee before the trade but struck out an eye-popping 41.8% of his opponents for the Brew Crew.

The lanky southpaw has an established multi-year track record as one of the sport’s most dominant late-game arms. He owns a career 2.71 ERA with a 43.2% strikeout percentage over 332 1/3 big league innings. Hader has collected 132 saves along the way and been selected to the All-Star Game four times. He’s rewarded with one of the largest arbitration deals of the winter himself, narrowly topping his $13.6MM projection.

With over five years of MLB service, Hader avoids arbitration for the final time. He’s on track to hit free agency next winter, when he’ll be headed into his age-30 season. With a typically dominant showing in 2023, Hader would have a chance at topping the reliever record $102MM free agent contract signed by Edwin Díaz this offseason.

Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the Soto agreement. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the Hader deal.

Dodgers Release Trevor Bauer

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The Dodgers announced Thursday that they’ve given right-hander Trevor Bauer his unconditional release. Los Angeles designated Bauer for assignment last week and explored trade possibilities for the right-hander but was unable to find a match. He’ll now become a free agent who can sign with a new team for the league minimum. The Dodgers will remain on the hook for the rest of the $22.5MM still left on Bauer’s deal.

Bauer’s release marks the conclusion of the Dodgers’ relationship with the righty, whom they signed to a three-year, $102MM contract in the 2020-21 offseason. Bauer, then heading into his age-30 season, had just been named the National League Cy Young winner in the shortened 2020 season, when he pitched 73 innings of 1.73 ERA ball for the Reds. The contract contained opt-out opportunities for Bauer after each season — similar (but greater in scope) to prior free-agent deals seen between the Dodgers and Scott Kazmir (three years, $48MM) and the Mets and Yoenis Cespedes (three years, $75MM).

Bauer was effective through 17 starts with Los Angeles, pitching to a 2.59 ERA in 107 2/3 innings to begin the 2021 season. That summer, it came to light that a woman in California had filed a restraining order against Bauer and accused him of sexual assault, which prompted a tumultuous investigation by both Major League Baseball and the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s office. He spent the remainder of the season on paid administrative leave — a mutually agreed-upon placement that is common practice when players are being examined for alleged violations of the league’s joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy. Two other women, both in Ohio, eventually came forth with similar allegations against Bauer.

The California plaintiff’s request for a long-term restraining order was denied in Aug. 2021, with a judge ruling that Bauer did not pose an ongoing threat to his accuser. The L.A. district attorney declined to pursue criminal charges, stating that: “After a thorough review of the available evidence, including the civil restraining order proceedings, witness statements and the physical evidence, the People are unable to prove the relevant charges beyond a reasonable doubt.”

Despite the lack of criminal charges, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred opined that Bauer had indeed violated the league’s policy, implementing a record 324-game suspension back in April. Bauer appealed the suspension, and after sitting out the entire 2022 season, his ban was reduced to 194 games — which had already been served in full. Bauer was reinstated and is eligible to return to the mound immediately for any team that wishes to sign him.

The Yankees and Mets have no plans to pursue Bauer, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Padres are also uninterested, per Bryce Miller of the San Diego Union-Tribune, and the same goes for the Guardians, per Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Dan Hayes of The Athletic tweets that the Twins also have no plans to speak with Bauer.

Matt Holliday Resigns As Cardinals’ Bench Coach; Joe McEwing Hired As Replacement

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The Cardinals announced Thursday that Matt Holliday has resigned from his position as the team’s bench coach. He’ll be replaced by Joe McEwing, who’s spent the past 15 years on the White Sox’ coaching staff. It’s a surprising announcement, given that Holliday was only hired to the post back in early November. Both Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Katie Woo of The Athletic suggest that Holliday’s decision came down to a matter of wanting to spend more time with his family (Twitter links).

Holliday, 43 this weekend, played in the big leagues from 2004 to 2018, donning a Cardinals uniform for much of that time. It thus made for an exciting return to the franchise when it was reported in November that he would take over the bench coach job that was left vacant when Skip Schumaker left to become manager of the Marlins.

However, with Spring Training now just over the horizon, it appears that Holliday has had a change of heart. Instead of returning to the MLB life of constantly being on the move from roughly January/February through October/November, he will choose a less-nomadic path and spend more time with his family. Holliday has four children with the eldest of those four, Jackson Holliday, having just been selected by the Orioles with the first overall pick in the 2022 draft.

As for McEwing, 50, he spent some time with the Cardinals as a player back in 1998 and 1999. He went on to suit up for the Mets, Royals and Astros. He’s since transitioned into coaching, starting in the minor leagues of the White Sox system in 2008. He jumped up to the big league team for the 2012 season, spending time as third base coach and bench coach through 2022.

Mariners Sign AJ Pollock

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The Mariners added a right-handed bat to their outfield mix Thursday, formally announcing their previously reported one-year signing of veteran AJ Pollock.  The Excel Sports Management client will be guaranteed $7MM on the deal and can earn an additional $3MM via incentives.

The Twins and Rangers were also known to have interest in Pollock, whose entry into the offseason market was at least somewhat unexpected.  Pollock batted a disappointing .245/.292/.389 over 527 plate appearances with the White Sox in 2022, yet he still opted to decline his $13MM player option for the 2023 season.  That option contained a hefty $5MM buyout, so between that money and the $7MM salary Pollock is receiving on his new deal with Seattle, the 35-year-old’s opt-out decision left $1MM in guaranteed money on the table.  With enough playing time to reach his contract’s incentives, however, he could match or even surpass that sum.

Pollock catches on with an intriguing Mariners team that reached the ALDS last season and is hopeful of taking more steps forward into World Series contention.  Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto is no stranger to Pollock, as Dipoto was working in the Diamondbacks’ front office when Arizona drafted Pollock with the 17th overall pick of the 2009 draft.

With center fielder Julio Rodriguez established as the bedrock of the Seattle outfield, the M’s have spent a lot of their offseason business on reinforcing and sorting out the corner outfield positions.  Mitch Haniger departed in free agency and Kyle Lewis and Jesse Winker were traded, while the Mariners acquired Teoscar Hernandez from the Blue Jays to act as the new everyday right fielder (and probable part-time DH).  Signing Pollock puts another right-handed bat into left field, with Jarred Kelenic and Taylor Trammell adding left-handed depth as platoon partners for Pollock or as bench options.

Some level of platoon shielding might be necessary given how Pollock’s numbers against right-handed pitching drastically fell off in 2022.  Always a solid bat against righty pitching in the past, Pollock hit only .231/.284/.309 over 394 plate appearances against righties last year.  This was the root of Pollock’s offensive struggles, as he continued to mash lefties to the tune of a .286/.316/.619 slash line and 11 homers over 133 trips to the plate.

In terms of overall Statcast metrics, Pollock’s 2022 performance didn’t differ all that greatly from previous seasons, though his hard-contract rate took a notable drop from 2021.  His speed and baserunning also took a hit, perhaps due to hamstring injuries in each of the last two seasons.  The biggest issue was a lack of power, as after posting a .227 Isolated Power number from 2017-21, Pollock dropped to only .143 in 2022.

Playing at spacious T-Mobile Park might not help Pollock regain all of that power stroke, though there are some reasons the Mariners can be hopeful about a rebound.  If Pollock is “only” a lefty-masher again, the M’s theoretically have enough left-handed outfield candidates to pick up the slack.  Moving back from less than a full-time role might be helpful for Pollock, as his 138 games played last season represented the second-highest total of his 11 MLB seasons — it could be that staying relatively healthy last year actually hampered Pollock or wore him down to some extent.  A normal offseason and Spring Training routine heading into 2023 would be just what the 35-year-old needs to produce a bounce-back year.

Just yesterday on MLBTR, Steve Adams wrote about the Mariners’ search for a right-handed hitting outfielder, and the broader sense that the M’s were having a strangely quiet offseason for a team that seemed poised to make some splashy final touches to a contender.  Adding Pollock for $7MM won’t quell speculation that ownership isn’t stretching the budget as much as expected, and yet the signing can also be viewed as a relatively inexpensive but smart investment.  Pollock was posting big numbers as recently as 2021, he has been a solid performer for most of his career, and he brings some more veteran experience and championship pedigree (Pollock was a big part of the Dodgers’ 2020 title team) to the young Mariners.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the agreement and the base terms (Twitter link). USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the additional incentives.

Dodgers Acquire Miguel Rojas

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The Dodgers bolstered their infield depth Wednesday evening, announcing agreement with the Marlins on a deal that brings in veteran infielder Miguel Rojas. Miami receives infield prospect Jacob Amaya in a one-for-one swap.

Rojas, 34 in February, actually made his MLB debut for the Dodgers in 2014 but was one of the seven players involved in a trade that December that saw him head to Miami. He served in a utility role for a few years but gradually took over the everyday shortstop job for the Marlins.

He hasn’t hit much in the majors, having only gone over the fence 39 times in his nine seasons. However, he has proven tough to strike out, only going down on strikes in 12.6% of his career plate appearances. For reference, the league average last year was 22.4%, so Rojas has been punched out at a rate barely half of that. The overall result is a career batting line of .260/.314/.358 and a wRC+ of 85, indicating he’s been about 15% below league average.

What really makes Rojas appealing is his glove. Last year, he got strong marks from all three of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average. His 15 DRS was second among shortstops last year with only Jeremy Peña ahead of him. His 4.9 UZR was fourth-best in the league and his 10 OAA had him tied for fifth. He also finished second at the position in the Fielding Bible voting, trailing only Jorge Mateo. His sprint speed is only in the 29th percentile but he was still able to swipe 22 bags over the past two seasons. Despite the subpar batting, he’s been worth 1.2 wins above replacement or higher in each of the past six seasons, according to the calculations of FanGraphs.

Rojas had previously been connected to the Red Sox in the offseason but instead returns to Los Angeles. The Dodgers lost their incumbent shortstop when Trea Turner reached free agency and signed with the Phillies earlier this offseason. The club is expected to give Gavin Lux a chance to move from second to short and become the long-term solution there, but having Rojas on hand gives them a veteran fallback who can also potentially impart his veteran wisdom to the younger player.

Despite the attributes of Rojas, the Marlins have moved on. They’ve been known to be looking for more offense for quite some time given their struggles in that department. The team-wide batting line last year was .230/.294/.363 for a wRC+ of 88, placing them ahead of just five other teams in the league in that regard. The Fish tried to add a bit more pop to the lineup recently when they signed Jean Segura. It was speculated by some at that point that they would then move Jazz Chisholm Jr. to shortstop and install Segura at the keystone. Subsequent reports suggest the club actually planned to have Segura at third, while it appears Joey Wendle will get first crack at shortstop.

It’s possible the other player in this deal will be a factor at the shortstop position in Miami before long. Amaya, 24, was drafted by the Dodgers in 2017 and has been considered one of their more interesting prospects since then. Prospect evaluators have generally considered him to be an excellent defender but there are questions about his bat. In 2021, he spent the year in Double-A, getting into 113 games at that level. While he walked in 10.9% of his plate appearances, he hit just .216/.303/.343 for a wRC+ of 75. Despite that tepid showing, he was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November of that year to protect him from selection in the Rule 5 draft.

Last year, seemed to get the hang of Double-A, hitting .264/.370/.500 for a wRC+ of 120 in 49 games. He was sent up to Triple-A but hit another speed bump. He walked in 14.9% of his trips to the plate but his .259/.368/.381 line was only good enough for a 94 wRC+ in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. He still has a couple of option years remaining, which would allow the Marlins to keep him in the minors to continue developing as a hitter. But since he’s already played in 84 games at the Triple-A level, it doesn’t seem like a major league audition should be too far off.

It seems the win-now Dodgers have placed a higher value on the immediate impact of Rojas than the future value of Amaya. The Marlins, meanwhile, have a longer path towards contention and would appear to have a stronger interest in Amaya’s ability to help them for years to come.

The Dodgers are reportedly assuming the entirety of Rojas’ $5MM contract for the 2023 season. They’re tacking on a matching number to their competitive balance tax calculation with Rojas in the final season of his two-year deal. That latter point is more important, since the payroll is well below the club’s spending over the past few years.

There has been some suggestion the Dodgers would like to get under the tax threshold this year in order to reset their status. The CBT features escalating penalties for paying it in consecutive seasons but the Dodgers could theoretically stay under the $233MM line this year and go into 2024 as “first-time” payors. They have been right around that border of late, at least per the unofficial calculations of Roster Resource. They’re now firmly over the line, projected around $237MM. If the club is indeed hoping to duck under the line, they would likely have to subtract another contract from their ledger between now and season’s end.

Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic was first to report the Dodgers were “deep in talks” with Miami about a Rojas deal. Craig Mish of SportsGrid was first to report the Marlins would receive Amaya in return. Jon Heyman of the New York Post confirmed the sides were in agreement. Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase was first to report Los Angeles was taking on Rojas’ entire $5MM salary.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Twins Re-Sign Carlos Correa

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Jan. 11: The Twins have formally announced Correa’s return. A press conference is set for 11:30am CT.

Jan.  10: Carlos Correa’s unprecedented free-agent saga looks to finally be drawing to a close, and it turns out he won’t even have to look for a new place to live. The former Rookie of the Year and Platinum Glove winner has reportedly agreed to a new six-year, $200MM contract with the Twins, which comes with four additional vesting options that can take the value of the contract to $270MM over a decade-long term. The Boras Corporation client does not have any opt-outs in the contract, though he will receive a full no-trade clause. The deal is expected to be finalized on Wednesday.

Correa will receive an $8MM signing bonus (paid out between 2023 and 2024) and annual salaries of $32MM in 2023-24, $36MM in 2025, $31.5MM in 2026, $30.5MM in 2027 and $30MM in 2028. The vesting options are valued at $25MM (2029), $20MM (2030), $15MM (2031) and $10MM (2032). Correa would vest his 2029 option by reaching 575 plate appearances the previous season; that number drops to 550 in 2029 (in order to vest his 2030 option), 525 in 2030 (to vest his 2031 option) and 502 in 2031 (to vest his 2032 option). The options would also vest if Correa finishes top five in MVP balloting, wins a Silver Slugger or claims an LCS or World Series MVP in the prior season. The Twins can still choose to pick up any of the options if Correa doesn’t meet the prior year’s vesting threshold.

The new deal between the Twins and Correa marks the latest and likely final twist in perhaps the wildest free-agent saga that’s ever played out. Correa, a two-time All-Star, agreed to terms with three different teams on three contracts of $200MM or more this winter — the first two of which were scuttled by concerns over the aforementioned right leg/ankle. Originally, Correa came to terms with the Giants on a 13-year, $350MM deal that blew the runner-up Twins out of the water. However, the Giants postponed Correa’s introductory press conference after raising some eleventh-hour concerns regarding his physical. The Mets, who hadn’t previously been involved in the Correa bidding, swooped in and agreed to a new 12-year, $315MM deal with Correa just days later, but New York raised similar concerns on Dec. 24, following their own physical.

At issue has been concern regarding the stability of Correa’s right leg and how well it will hold up over the life of a long-term deal. Correa sustained a significant fracture when sliding into third base as a 19-year-old prospect in the Astros’ system, which required surgery and the installation of a plate that is still in place to this day. While Correa has never been on the injured list due to the leg in the nine years since that injury, he did at least have a brief scare with it late in the 2022 season.

Correa was thrown out on a hard slide into second base and remained down on the field for several moments before leaving under his own power. After the game, he told reporters that he’d been hit on the plate in his leg and experienced brief numbness and vibration. Correa didn’t miss any time following that incident, however, and he went on to bat .346/.393/.481 with a homer and four doubles in 56 plate appearances from the day of that scare through season’s end.

The manner in which Correa’s leg and its hardware would hold up gave the Mets enough pause that they’re reported to have halved both the length and total guarantee of their original offer. The Mets still offered Correa the ability to match the original 12 years and $315MM they put on the table, but the back half of the contract was conditional and the team ostensibly would not budge from its stance on the matter. Unsurprisingly, Correa took the larger guarantee and considerably larger average annual value presented by the Twins on what is now the largest deal in franchise history.

The offseason leg drama surrounding Correa won’t do him any favors when it comes to shedding the “injury-prone” label that followed him early in his career, but it’s worth pointing out that over the past three seasons, Correa has appeared in 89.1% of his teams’ possible games. Eight of the missed contests in that time came early in the 2022 season with the Twins, when he spent a bit more than a week on the Covid-related injured list.

Nevertheless, all eyes will be on Correa’s leg for the foreseeable future. The uncertainty surrounding it was enough to drop Correa — a player the Twins adamantly maintained they never wanted to lose — back in Minnesota’s lap at a lesser rate than the ten-year, $285MM offer they put forth just one month ago, before he agreed to terms in San Francisco. It’s a stunning turn of events and a major narrative change for a Twins club that had been so focused on Correa in the offseason’s early stages that the majority of impact players were already off the board by the time it looked as though they’d been outbid by San Francisco.

With Correa now likely installed not only for the 2023 season but for the next six years, at the very least, the Twins’ short- and long-term outlooks are radically altered. Correa, who batted .291/.366/.467 with 22 home runs as a Twin this past season will be slotted back into the top third of a lineup that suddenly looks substantially deeper than it did just hours ago. He’ll follow leadoff man and reigning AL batting champ Luis Arraez, with Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Jose Miranda and offseason signee Joey Gallo among the names behind him in the order.

With Correa back in Minnesota, trade acquisition Kyle Farmer will shift back from starting shortstop to the utility role the Twins initially envisioned when acquiring him. Acquired from Cincinnati in November, Farmer is a former catcher who has seen time all over the infield in recent years. He can back up each of Correa, Polanco and Miranda while providing Minnesota with a potent bat against left-handed pitching. Correa’s return allows Farmer to be utilized in more advantageous platoon matchups, one year after the former Red slashed .309/.380/.568 against lefties (but just .235/.291/.320 against righties).

The return of Correa on a long-term arrangement also calls into question just where fellow shortstop and former No. 1 overall pick Royce Lewis might fit into the equation once he’s back to full health. Lewis has been plagued by miserable luck on the health front, tearing the ACL in his right knee two times in just over one calendar year. He recovered from that first ACL tear and burst onto the scene in 2022 with a .300/.317/.550 batting line in his first dozen MLB games — only to suffer that ligament tear while playing in the outfield. The outfield could well end up Lewis’ long-term home, but he could also be considered an option at third base (with Miranda perhaps moving across the diamond) or at second base as an heir to Polanco, who is entering the final guaranteed season of his contract. (The Twins hold a pair of affordable club options on Polanco, however.)

Correa’s $36MM salary (and half the payout on his $8MM signing bonus) bump the Twins’ payroll to roughly $157MM — a franchise record. The Twins have also added Gallo (one year, $11MM) and catcher Christian Vazquez (three years, $30MM) thus far in the offseason — a trio of moves that should upgrade the team’s defense at various key positions. While Correa didn’t match his 2021 Platinum Glove numbers in his first season with the Twins, he’s still generally regarded as a plus defender and ought to stabilize the position with quality glovework for years to come. If a move to another position is ultimately deemed necessary, he has the arm strength for a move to the hot corner, ranking 14th among all Major League infielders (min. 100 throws) in terms of arm strength in 2022, per Statcast.

The addition of Gallo has only made it seem likelier that Minnesota will eventually find a trade partner for Max Kepler, as the Twins are now flush with left-handed-hitting corner outfielders (Kepler, Gallo, Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Matt Wallner). Kirilloff could see most of his time at first base, but even still, the Twins have as many as four viable corner outfielders for two spots — and that’s not even factoring in right-handed-hitting bench options like Kyle Garlick and Gilberto Celestino.

It all falls under the “good problem to have” cliche, as the Twins now have a bevy of options in the outfield corners and around the infield, freeing up the possibility to explore trades designed to augment the starting rotation and/or bullpen that might not otherwise have appeared quite so palatable.

Put more simply, while the jarring reunion with Correa will no doubt be regarded as the most substantial move of the offseason, it’s not likely to be the last. While the Twins might have erred toward gearing up for a transitional year in the wake of missing out on Correa, suddenly retaining him on the largest contract in franchise history figures to spur the front office into further activity.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the agreement and the terms (Twitter link). Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the vesting options and details surrounding the Mets’ reduced offer and surrounding Correa’s physical with the Twins (all Twitter links). USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted that the contract did not contain opt-outs. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links) and Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reported details on the vesting options and salary structure. Heyman reported the vesting thresholds and the no-trade clause (Twitter links), while Dan Hayes of the Athletic reported the Twins’ ability to trigger the options even if Correa doesn’t meet the vesting mark (on Twitter). Nightengale tweeted the contract was likely to be announced on Wednesday.

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