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Max Scherzer Likely Out Six To Eight Weeks Due To Oblique Strain

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The results of Max Scherzer’s MRI are in, and the news isn’t great for the Mets. The team announced Thursday that Scherzer has suffered a “moderate to high grade internal oblique strain” and is expected to miss six to eight weeks. He’ll be placed on the injured list alongside co-ace Jacob deGrom (stress reaction in his scapula) and right-hander Tylor Megill (biceps inflammation).

It’s a brutal blow for the Mets, who sit at 25-14 and currently hold a six-game lead over the second-place Phillies in the National League East. Scherzer sustained the injury last night when throwing a slider to Albert Pujols, telling reporters after the game that he’d been experienced some tightness before feeling a “zing” down his side on the final pitch to Pujols. The three-time Cy Young winner immediately called for the training staff and could be seen plainly stating, “I’m done” when the staff reached the mound.

The Mets shattered precedent to get Scherzer into Queens, signing the 37-year-old righty to a three-year deal worth $130MM and giving him the highest annual salary in baseball history in doing so ($43.33MM). Owner Steve Cohen and first-year general manager Billy Eppler surely had visions of the game’s most formidable one-two punch at the time, dreaming of a playoff rotation fronted by Scherzer and deGrom.

It’s possible that duo could yet lead the Mets’ staff in the postseason, but deGrom hasn’t pitched yet in 2022 thanks to that shoulder injury. The team announced earlier this week that his latest MRI revealed “continued healing” but did not provide a timetable for his return. It’s now possible that the Mets won’t have that vaunted duo healthy and on the same roster until after the All-Star break, depending on Scherzer’s recovery.

Even in the absence of Scherzer, deGrom and Megill — whose injury should be downplayed, given the strength of his early performance — the Mets still have a solid starting staff on paper. Chris Bassitt and Carlos Carrasco have been outstanding early in the season, and the Mets have gotten quality work from Taijuan Walker and (in more limited opportunities) lefty David Peterson, too. It’s likely that Williams and Peterson will be the choices to follow the trio of Bassitt, Carrasco and Walker while the Mets navigate this latest batch of injuries.

While that’s a solid group, it obviously pales in comparison to a full-strength contingent of Mets starters. And, more concerning, the depth beyond the current quintet begins to look more questionable. Veteran left-hander Mike Montgomery is pitching with the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate but has been tagged for a 5.52 ERA through seven starts. Twenty-five-year-old Thomas Szapucki has been sharp through six Triple-A starts but has totaled just 21 innings in those outings. Righty Jordan Yamamoto has been a depth option for the Mets in the past, but he was removed from the 40-man roster earlier this season and only just made his minor league debut — 1 2/3 shaky innings in High-A — after missing time on the minor league injured list. Former Angels righty Felix Pena was brought in on a minor league deal, but like Montgomery, he’s struggled in Triple-A.

Given the manner in which injuries have already cut into the team’s depth, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Mets poke around the market for some depth options. Major trades this time of year are uncommon but not unheard of. Otherwise, the Mets could turn to some recently DFA’ed arms (e.g. Jharel Cotton) or veterans who’ve recently opted for minor league free agency (e.g. Drew Hutchison, Carlos Martinez) in an effort to at least stockpile some experienced options in the upper minors.

Chris Paddack Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Twins starter Chris Paddack underwent Tommy John surgery today, the team informed reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press). It’s the second such procedure of his career, as he previously went under the knife as a Padres prospect back in 2016.

It’s obviously a disappointing development for both pitcher and team. Minnesota just acquired Paddack on the eve of Opening Day, relinquishing closer Taylor Rogers and corner outfielder Brent Rooker to secure three years of his services (as well as reliever Emilio Pagán). The hope was that Paddack would add some depth to a rotation that had its fair share of injury concerns, but his first season in Minnesota comes to a close after five outings.

Paddack presented something of a health red flag himself, however. In addition to his prior Tommy John surgery, the righty landed on the injured list late last September due to inflammation in his throwing elbow. That proved a season-ending issue, but Paddack returned to open this year. He left his May 8 start because of renewed elbow inflammation, and reports thereafter suggested surgery might prove necessary.

The 26-year-old Paddack has proven enigmatic from both a health and performance perspective. He was lights-out as a rookie, tossing 140 2/3 innings of 3.33 ERA ball in 2019. His production ticked downwards in both of the following seasons, as his ERA jumped north of 4.70 in both years while he struggled to keep the ball in the park. The Friars continued to stockpile starting pitching talent over that time, and Paddack fell outside the top five or six arms on the rotation depth chart.

San Diego explored multiple possible Paddack deals in Spring Training. He and Pagán were involved in talks with the Mets that might’ve offloaded some of Eric Hosmer’s contract to New York while sending Dominic Smith to Southern California. Mets’ brass eventually pulled out of that possible deal, and San Diego pivoted to talks with Minnesota instead.

From a performance perspective, Paddack had shown signs of turning the corner in his early run in the Twin Cities. He posted a 4.03 ERA across 22 1/3 innings, striking out 21.5% of opponents while walking just two of the 93 hitters he faced. The Texas native saw slight dips in his fastball velocity and swinging strike rate, but neither seemed especially alarming until he was pulled mid-start with the elbow concern.

Paddack is making $2.25MM this season, and he’ll be eligible for arbitration twice more. With his limited innings total, he’ll only accrue a marginal raise on that salary for 2023. He’ll certainly miss the bulk of the 2023 campaign as well, so his final arbitration raise will probably also be muted. It’s unfortunate timing for Paddack, but that affordability probably means the Twins will tender him a contract with an eye towards the end of next season and the 2024 campaign.

In the meantime, Minnesota will have to make due with their other starting pitching options. Joe Ryan and Chris Archer are the only two who have taken all seven turns through the rotation. Dylan Bundy missed some time with COVID-19, but both he and Sonny Gray — who had a brief IL stint for a hamstring strain — are back. Bailey Ober shouldn’t be far behind after making a rehab start with Triple-A St. Paul over the weekend, and well-regarded prospect Josh Winder has produced in a swing role.

That’s likely to be the primary group, although there’s a fair bit of performance and injury uncertainty with the veteran options at the back end. Kenta Maeda is hoping to make a late-season return from his own Tommy John surgery, which he underwent last September. Still, rotation help looked to be a possible midseason target for the division-leading Twins even if everyone were healthy. Paddack’s loss only figures to spur that pursuit as we move nearer to the trade deadline.

Brandon Lowe Diagnosed With Stress Reaction, Shut Down For At Least Three Weeks

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The Rays announced Tuesday that second baseman Brandon Lowe, who went on the injured list due to lower back discomfort yesterday, has now been diagnosed with a stress reaction in his back. He’ll be shut down from all baseball activity for the next three weeks before he’s reevaluated. Even in a best-case scenario that sees him cleared at the three-week mark, Lowe would surely require a rehab stint after a shutdown of that length. That means he’s likely to be sidelined a month at the very least, with the obvious possibility of an even lengthier absence than that.

It’s a tough blow for the Rays, given Lowe’s track record as one of their better all-around performers in recent years. He’s gotten out to a slow start in 2022, though he’s still delivered some extra-base pop, evidenced by his five homers, five doubles and two triples. He’d seemingly turned the corner in May, too, slashing a huge .282/.378/.615 with seven extra-base hits over his past 11 games.

If there’s a silver lining for the Rays, it’s that they’re deep in middle-infield options. Top prospect Vidal Brujan could certainly see an uptick in playing time if Lowe is to miss considerable time, and the Rays also have Taylor Walls and spring trade acquisition Isaac Paredes as alternate options on the big league roster. Down in Triple-A, Ford Proctor and Jonathan Aranda both have experience at second base and are on the 40-man roster, although second base is neither player’s primary position.

The most straightforward course of action would be to install Brujan as the primary second baseman in Lowe’s stead. He’s long ranked among the game’s best minor leaguers, ranking among the top 100 prospects at Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com, FanGraphs and other outlets dating back to the 2018-19 offseason. He’s had a slow start in the big leagues this year but has received only 21 plate appearances without a regular role in the lineup. The 24-year-old switch-hitter was batting .300./400/.467 in 70 Triple-A plate appearances and is generally lauded for a combination of his plus-plus speed, plus hit tool and above-average defense.

Even if Brujan picks up the pace and produces as the team has long hoped, they’ll still hope for as quick a return as possible for Lowe, who slugged a career-best 39 home runs for Tampa Bay just last season. The second-place Rays are currently five and a half games behind the division-leading Yankees. Lowe is being paid $4MM this year while playing out the fourth season of a six-year, $24MM contract extension that spans the 2019-24 seasons. The Rays also hold a $10.5MM club option for the 2025 season and an $11.5MM option for the 2026 season.

DeGrom MRI Reveals “Continued Healing”; Still No Clear Timetable For Return

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Mets ace Jacob deGrom, who has yet to pitch this season and is on the mend from a stress reaction in his right scapula, underwent his latest follow-up MRI yesterday, the team announced. They issued the following statement in the wake of this latest test:

“He underwent follow-up imaging yesterday that revealed continued healing in the scapula. He will continue to build distance and velocity in his throwing program, and we will provide an update on his progress when appropriate.”

On the one hand, it’s somewhat encouraging that there’s been no setback and deGrom ostensibly appears to be progressing toward a return. On the other, it’s surely frustrating for all parties that there’s no clear indication as to when deGrom might get back on the mound at Citi Field. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo wrote last night, after speaking to pitching coach Jeremy Hefner, that deGrom would require between three and five minor league rehab starts.

Of course, given the vague nature of the Mets’ statement, it’s not clear just when that minor league rehab work might begin. The Mets indicated that deGrom is still throwing, but the standard progression would be to go from flat ground, to mound work, to facing live hitters before jumping into a rehab game — with rest days smattered throughout that process. If deGrom is indeed slated for five rehab appearances, that could tack upwards of four weeks onto the process. Inferring a bit, it’s hard to see him back before mid-to-late June at this point, but the Mets have rather deliberately avoided making any definitive statements.

“We don’t want to mess around with reinjuring that type of situation, because then he’s done for the year,” Hefner told DiComo yesterday. “So we’re definitely going to play the long game with him to make sure that we have him for the rest of the season.”

Looking purely at the standings, no one would be able to tell that the Mets have been missing the game’s best pitcher this season. Their 23-13 record already gives them a hefty 5.5-game lead over the second-place Phillies in the National League East, to say nothing of the game’s third best winning percentage (.639, trailing only the Dodgers and Yankees). The Mets have received seven starts apiece from Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt, Carlos Carrasco and Tylor Megill, and that quartet has combined for an outstanding 3.22 ERA in 162 innings. Taijuan Walker (four starts) and David Peterson (three) have also been excellent in their opportunities thus far.

On the whole, Mets starters rank sixth in the Majors in ERA — even without deGrom. They’re also ranked third in FIP and fifth in SIERA, in addition to possessing the seventh-best strikeout rate and second-lowest walk rate of any team in baseball. Given the group’s collective dominance, the Mets can afford to take a more cautious approach with deGrom. That may well have been the team’s approach regardless, but an outstanding rotation and comfortable first-place lead certainly quell any temptation to push deGrom that might crop up in a more tightly contested division and/or with broad-reaching struggles from alternative rotation options.

Boras: Michael Conforto Not Ruling Out Late-Season Return

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Michael Conforto was the most notable unsigned free agent of this past offseason. The outfielder rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets and didn’t find a deal to his liking before the league locked out the players in early December. The following month, he injured his right shoulder during training and remains unsigned.

Conforto underwent surgery last month, and reports at the time suggested the procedure would end his 2022 season before it began. That may not actually be the case, as his agent Scott Boras now tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post it’s not out of the question Conforto could make it back to the majors by September. “There is a possibility the swinging modality can be back to normal at a much earlier date than the throwing aspect,” Boras told Sherman. “He had his surgery in April. There’s a chance depending on how he progresses that (hitting in the majors late in the season) is a possibility.”

Based on those comments, it seems the path back for Conforto would be as a hitter only. If he’s still unable to throw by September, clubs certainly aren’t going to plug him back into right field (and probably wouldn’t risk him at first base either). Yet there’s apparently at least some chance he makes a late-season return as a designated hitter and/or bench bat, which hadn’t previously appeared possible.

Even if Conforto’s shoulder progresses well enough he could make it back to the diamond, he’d of course need to find a contract offer to his liking. Teams aren’t going to commit the kind of multi-year deal he’d been looking for entering the offseason, and Conforto and Boras may eventually decide it’s better for the 29-year-old to continue rehabbing on his own and look for a new team next year.

That said, clubs figure to keep an eye on Conforto’s progress over the next few months. While he posted only marginally above-average offensive numbers last season, he hit at a .261/.365/.478 level between 2018-20. Something approaching that production would be a boon to virtually every lineup, and a contending club looking for a bit more left-handed punch could have interest in a late-season pact if he’s healthy. That kind of arrangement, meanwhile, could allow Conforto to showcase his form for a few weeks (and into a possible postseason run) while still hitting the market next winter.

In any event, a resolution won’t be coming for several months. Conforto’s clearly not near an imminent return to game shape, and he’ll have to continue working on his own for at least the next two months. Any team would forfeit an amateur draft choice were they to sign Conforto now because he rejected the Mets’ QO. Certainly, no team is going to do that for a player with such an uncertain health status. Pick forfeiture will no longer apply once the draft concludes on July 19, however, so there’d be no penalty (aside from whatever guarantee he receives) for a team to add him after that point. The Mets won’t receive any compensation if he signs a post-draft deal.

Whether Conforto will sign anywhere this year won’t be known until at least after the All-Star Break, and quite likely for a while longer. That it’s even possible after news of his shoulder surgery makes for a surprising development, though, one that’ll be worth monitoring later in the season.

Mariners Option Jarred Kelenic, Claim Adrian Sampson

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The Mariners announced this afternoon they’ve claimed right-hander Adrian Sampson off waivers from the Cubs. They’ve also selected outfielder Steven Souza Jr. to the big leagues in place of Jarred Kelenic, who was optioned to Triple-A Tacoma. Seattle also reinstated Sergio Romo from the 10-day injured list, optioned Danny Young and designated Stuart Fairchild and Yohan Ramirez for assignment to clear 40-man roster space for Sampson and Souza.

Kelenic’s demotion is the most notable of Seattle’s spate of moves. A former sixth overall pick and top prospect, Kelenic has yet to produce against big league pitching. He struggled to a .181/.265/.350 line over his first 377 MLB plate appearances last season, striking out in 28.1% of his trips while hitting only .216 on balls in play. The M’s surely hoped to see more from the left-handed hitting outfielder in the early going this season, but that hasn’t yet been the case.

Through 30 games, Kelenic owns just a .140/.219/.291 mark. The youngster has gone down on strikes 36 times while making contact on only 67.8% of his swings. That’s the 12th-lowest contact rate among 192 batters with at least 90 plate appearances, and the M’s have decided it’s time for a reset against Triple-A arms. It’s the second time in as many years that Kelenic has been optioned after scuffling against MLB pitching, but he responded well during a month-long stint in the minors last summer.

The timing of Kelenic’s latest option comes rather ironically as the M’s are headed to Queens for a weekend series with the Mets. New York, of course, originally drafted him and included him in the controversial Robinson Canó/Edwin Díaz swap. That looked to be a coup for Seattle given Kelenic’s prospect pedigree, but he’ll obviously need to perform better whenever the M’s bring him back to the big leagues. There’s plenty of time to do so, as he won’t turn 23 years old until July. Because of the canceled minor league season in 2020, the Wisconsin native has still only played 51 games between Double-A and Triple-A.

Barring an exceptionally lengthy stint, the demotion doesn’t seem likely to affect his path to free agency after the 2027 season. Kelenic entered the year with 105 days of big league service; players are credited with a full service year for spending 172 days on an MLB roster or injured list. He’s accrued approximately 36 more days this year, meaning he needs to be in the majors for around a month more to surpass the one-year threshold in 2022. How long this stay in Tacoma lasts will no doubt be determined in large part by Kelenic’s performance there, but it’s hard to imagine the M’s keeping him down until September barring some major struggles against Triple-A pitching.

In the meantime, Seattle will turn to the veteran Souza with Julio Rodríguez, Jesse Winker and Dylan Moore as outfield options. The 33-year-old has gotten sporadic MLB time with the Cubs and Dodgers over the past couple years, but he hasn’t played a full season in the majors since 2017. Signed to a minor league deal in Spring Training, Souza has gotten off to an excellent start with the Rainiers. He’s hitting .267/.417/.533 with five homers and a massive 19.8% walk rate in 22 games. The 14-18 M’s will see if he can carry over that production against big league arms to inject some life into an outfield that has underwhelmed.

Fairchild was part of that outfield mix very briefly. The 26-year-old was acquired from the Diamondbacks for cash in late April and appeared in three games, going hitless in a trio of plate appearances. A Seattle native, Fairchild was a second-round pick of the Reds in 2017 and has been traded twice in his young career. The M’s will have a week to deal him again or try to run him through outright waivers.

That’s also true of Ramirez, who has pitched in the bigs over the past three seasons. The right-hander owns a 3.97 ERA in 56 2/3 career innings, striking out a strong 28.6% of opponents. He’s also walked 15.2% of batters faced, however, and he’d been tagged for three homers in his first seven outings this year. The Mariners elected to move on, but he works in the mid-90s and has a pair of minor league option years remaining, so it’s possible another club takes a chance on him.

In his place, they’ll bring aboard a multi-inning option from the Cubs. Sampson started five of his ten appearances for Chicago last season, tossing 35 1/3 frames of 2.80 ERA ball. That came with an underwhelming 19.3% strikeout rate and an alarming 2.04 homers allowed per nine innings, but he pounded the strike zone and induced a fair amount of ground-balls. Chicago re-signed the righty to a minor league deal over the winter. He was selected to the big leagues on Sunday, pitched in one game, then was designated for assignment.

Kumar Rocker Signs With Frontier League’s Tri-City ValleyCats

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Draft prospect Kumar Rocker has signed with the Tri-City ValleyCats of the independent Frontier League, according to a club announcement. He’ll use the league as a showcase to demonstrate his health and current form in advance of July’s draft.

Rocker has been one of the more talented and well-known draft prospects in recent years. Regarded as a possible first-round talent out of high school, Rocker matriculated to Vanderbilt after not agreeing to terms with a major league team on draft day. The 6’5″ right-hander stepped right into the Commodores’ rotation and would spend three seasons there. He posted a 3.25 ERA over 99 2/3 innings as a freshman, capping off the season with an utterly dominant 19-strikeout no-hitter in an elimination game against Duke.

Vanderbilt would go on to defeat Michigan in that year’s College World Series. From 2020-21, Rocker teamed with Jack Leiter — who would eventually be selected second overall by the Rangers — at the top of the rotation. The 2020 college baseball season was shortened because of the pandemic, but Rocker returned with a 2.73 ERA and 179 strikeouts over 122 frames last year. Vanderbilt finished national runner-up, and Rocker headed into last summer’s draft as a possible top five selection.

The Mets wound up selecting him with the 10th overall pick, with reports suggesting they were prepared to offer an overslot $6MM signing bonus. New York took issue with something in his throwing elbow during a post-draft medical evaluation, however, and wound up pulling their offer entirely. The Mets received the 11th selection in the upcoming draft as compensation. Unsurprisingly, Rocker’s camp pushed back against the idea that he was a particular health risk, with advisor Scott Boras saying last summer the hurler “is healthy according to independent medical review by multiple prominent baseball orthopedic surgeons.”

Rocker elected not to return to Vanderbilt, preferring to prepare for the 2022 draft on his own. Vanderbilt head coach Tim Corbin suggested in February he may eventually pursue an opportunity in independent ball, and that’s the course of action he’s chosen. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (on Twitter) that Rocker will begin pitching in games for the ValleyCats around a month from now, giving him about four weeks of game action before draft day.

Baseball America placed Rocker 35th on its latest ranking of this summer’s top draft prospects. Obviously, much of his stock will depend on how concerned various team medical personnel are during their evaluations of his elbow. This is generally regarded as a weak year for college pitching, so the 22-year-old Rocker would be one of the top nearer-term arms in the class if his arsenal is intact and the medical evaluations check out.

Dodgers Place Clayton Kershaw On Injured List

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The Dodgers are placing Clayton Kershaw on the 15-day injured list due to right SI joint inflammation, the club informed reporters (including J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group). The team doesn’t anticipate it being a long-term absence. Reliever Garrett Cleavinger has been recalled from Triple-A Oklahoma City in a corresponding move.

The SI joint is in the hip/pelvis area, so Kershaw is fortunately not dealing with any arm concerns. He missed most of the second half of last season due to forearm/elbow issues, so this latest injury would seem to register as a much more minor issue. Walker Buehler will take the ball tonight against the Phillies in Kershaw’s stead.

Kershaw turned 34 years old last month, but despite his age and last season’s injuries, the three-time Cy Young award winner has again been dominant. After signing a one-year, $17MM deal to return to L.A. during Spring Training, Kershaw has tossed 30 innings across his first five starts. He owns a 1.80 ERA with a stellar 29.4% strikeout rate. Owner of perhaps the game’s best command, the eight-time All-Star has only walked three of the 109 batters he’s faced.

Andrew Heaney is also on the injured list, leaving the Dodgers with a four-man group of Buehler, Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin and Tyler Anderson in the starting staff for now. David Price has been out of action since late April due to COVID-19, but he’s begun throwing and could return to the club next week (link via Sarah Wexler of MLB.com). Price, however, has worked exclusively in relief this year and probably wouldn’t step back into the rotation out of the gate. The Dodgers also recently selected highly-regarded pitching prospect Ryan Pepiot to make his major league debut; Pepiot was optioned back to Oklahoma City after a start on Wednesday.

Bryce Harper Has Tear In UCL, Won’t Throw For Four Weeks

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An elbow issue that’s relegated Bryce Harper to DH duties since mid-April has been diagnosed as a ’small tear’ in his UCL, reports Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Enquirer. While the reigning NL MVP remains able to swing the bat, he’ll undergo a platelet-rich plasma (PRP) injection on Sunday that will keep him out of the Phillies lineup on Sunday, and possibly into early next week.

The team had previously called the issue a mild elbow sprain, but a visit to Dr. Neal ElAttrache confirmed a test from last week that appeared to show a small tear in his ulnar collateral ligament — the same ligament replaced in Tommy John surgeries. Whether or not such a surgery is in Harper’s future remains to be seen, but it appears that the Phils’ present intention is to keep Harper’s bat in the lineup in whatever way possible.

Signed by the Phillies to a 13-year, $330MM deal ahead of the 2019 season, Harper has mostly lived up to his billing, compiling a .280/.396/.553 triple-slash — good for a 145 wRC+ — in the first three-plus seasons of the deal. 2021 marked his best season in Philadelphia, as he led the majors in both slugging percentage and OPS with a .309/.429/.615 batting line (a 170 wRC+, also best in the bigs) en route to his second NL MVP.

Whatever the prognosis, Joe Girardi’s squad can ill afford to have Harper out of the lineup for long. It’s still early, of course, but the Phillies are already seven games off the pace in the NL East. They may have suffered a bit of bad luck already early in the year: despite a run differential of plus-ten, for instance, the Phillies are three games under .500 entering play on Thursday, and neither the offense (with a collective wRC+ of 106) nor the pitching staff (which has an xFIP of .365, ninth in the bigs) has clearly underperformed. Still, with both the red-hot Mets and the defending World Series champion Braves (not to mention the pitching-rich Marlins) in the same division, Girardi will need to right the ship sooner than later if his team wants to keep alive more than faint hopes for a division title.

After signing both Nick Castellanos (to a five-year, $100MM deal) and Kyle Schwarber (four years, $79MM) in the offseason, the Phils were already playing with defensive fire, but the expectation had been that one of the two would serve as the DH the vast majority of the time. While both have provided some punch at the plate (Castellanos much more so, with a 147 wRC+ to Schwarber’s 99), they’re also both liabilities on defense — an effect that’s amplified when they share an outfield. Harper has rated out as roughly average in right (his 9.9 career UZR suggests he’s saved roughly ten runs over his eleven-year career, though defensive advanced stats are far more controversial than offensive), but his replacement with either Castellanos or Schwarber represents a substantial downgrade.

Padres Sign Robinson Cano

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11:46am: The Padres are likely to finalize a deal with Canó tomorrow, tweets Dennis Lin of the Athletic. San Diego already has a vacancy on the 40-man roster, so they’d only need to make a corresponding 26-man transaction.

11:07am: The Padres are closing in on a deal with Robinson Canó, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Heyman’s colleague, Joel Sherman, reports (on Twitter) that San Diego is among a handful of teams that has expressed interest. According to Sherman, the eight-time All-Star is likely to sign a major league contract.

Canó was released by the Mets last week. New York had designated him for assignment on May 2, the date for teams to cut their active rosters from 28 to 26 players. Canó had started just under half the Mets’ games through the season’s first month, splitting his time roughly evenly between second base and designated hitter. He’d gotten off to a difficult start, however, hitting just .195/.233/.268 through his first 43 plate appearances.

The 17-year MLB veteran showed some worrisome statistical indicators beyond just the poor results. He made contact on a personal-low 73% of swings, a few points below this season’s league average. Canó also chased nearly half the pitches he was thrown outside the strike zone and hit more than 55% of his batted balls on the ground. At age 39 and coming off a full 2021 season lost to a second career suspension for performance-enhancing drugs, the Mets decided those early numbers were reason enough to move on.

One could also take the more optimistic view that Canó was merely shaking off some rust after the long layoff. A 12-game showing is an incredibly small sample off which to base any definitive conclusions — even regarding the elevated swing-and-miss and chase numbers. When Canó was last eligible to play before this year, he performed quite well. In 182 plate appearances during the shortened 2020 campaign, he hit .316/.352/.544 with ten home runs. That was the second of three seasons between 2018-20 in which Canó posted well above-average offensive production.

Of course, few players have matched Canó’s performance since he entered the league. He’s a five-time Silver Slugger Award winner and has finished in the top ten of MVP balloting six times in his career. Were it not for his pair of PED suspensions, he’d be a virtual lock for eventual enshrinement in the Hall of Fame. There’s little question Canó’s days as that kind of superstar are behind him, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility he could still be a useful hitter, particularly against right-handed pitching.

The Padres evidently believe that to be the case. San Diego has gotten incredible production from Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer in the season’s early going. Ha-Seong Kim, Jurickson Profar and Luke Voit each have unimpressive batting averages, but their combination of power output and (particularly in Voit’s case) huge walk numbers have propped up their overall performances. The rest of the lineup has struggled to varying degrees, and San Diego’s overall .227/.320/.364 team slash line is middle-of-the-pack.

The Friars are looking for affordable ways to bolster the offense. If they believe Canó is still an above-average hitter, there’s reason to roll the dice. The Mets remain on the hook for almost all of the $37.6MM still owed to Canó over the next two seasons under the terms of his original ten-year contract with the Mariners. If a deal were to get across the finish line, San Diego would owe him only the prorated portion of the $700K league minimum salary. That’s of particular import with the Friars just narrowly below the $230MM base luxury tax threshold, which they don’t appear eager to exceed.

Canó wouldn’t be a regular anywhere on the diamond for the Padres. Hosmer is a lock to hold onto first base so long as he’s hitting at this level, and Jake Cronenworth has second base accounted for. The right-handed hitting Voit is the primary designated hitter and figures to remain so, but Canó could spell him on occasion against righty starters while serving as a depth option on the right side of the infield.

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