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Free Agent Danny Duffy Targeting June Return Following Flexor Surgery

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Although veteran left-hander Danny Duffy was a fairly notable deadline pickup by the Dodgers back in July, the soon-to-be 33-year-old didn’t throw a pitch in Los Angeles following the trade. Acquired while on the injured list due to a forearm strain, Duffy suffered a setback while rehabbing with L.A. and never made it back to a big league mound.

The Dodgers and Duffy were both rather quiet on his outlook. The left-hander now reveals to Andy McCullough of The Athletic that after initially fearing what would’ve been his second career Tommy John surgery, he instead required surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his left arm. That procedure, performed in October, comes with a months-long rehabilitation process. Duffy is targeting June for a return to a big league mound and expects to pitch out of the bullpen in 2022 before hopefully moving back into a rotation thereafter.

Of course, the team for which Duffy will throw remains entirely uncertain. The left-hander hit free agency for the first time in his career at season’s end and did not agree to terms with a club prior to the expiration of the 2016-21 collective bargaining agreement. It stands to reason that either the Dodgers, who traded for him, or the Royals, who drafted and developed him, would have interest in bringing him back.

Then again, Duffy has a lengthy track record of big league success and ought to be of interest to a variety of contenders and non-contenders alike on a short-term deal. Most clubs figure to be interested on a one-year deal, though as we saw with Kirby Yates earlier in the offseason, its feasible that a team could try to lure Duffy on a heavily backloaded two-year arrangement.

Duffy appeared in 13 games for the Royals this past season, all but one of them as a starting pitcher. In 61 frames he notched a tidy 2.51 ERA, albeit with less-favorable reviews from fielding-independent marks like FIP (3.40) and SIERA (4.14). This season’s 93.8 mph average heater was his best mark since 2016, while his 25.8% strikeout rate was a narrow career-high mark over 2016’s rate of 25.7%.

KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes Sign Yasiel Puig

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Free agent outfielder Yasiel Puig is in agreement with the Kiwoom Heroes of the Korea Baseball Organization, reports Yonhap News (h/t to Yonhap’s Jeeho Yoo). It’ll be a one-year, $1MM contract, the maximum amount allowed under KBO rules for first-year foreign players. (Francys Romero of Las Mayores reported yesterday that Puig was nearing agreement with a KBO team).

Puig, who turned 31 years old yesterday, hasn’t appeared in the majors since 2019. After a league average offensive showing between the Reds and Indians that year, he lingered on the free agent market for the entire offseason. Puig looked as if he’d lined up a deal with the Braves coming out of the pandemic-driven transactions freeze last July, but his potential agreement with Atlanta was scuttled after he tested positive for COVID-19.

Puig didn’t wind up playing in 2020. During the ensuing offseason, a woman filed a civil action against him, alleging that he had sexually assaulted her in 2018. In March, John Barr of ESPN detailed the allegations, which Puig and his representatives denied. Criminal charges were never filed, and the parties settled the civil case out of court this past October.

While Puig continued to express interest in a return to Major League Baseball, he spent the 2021 season in the Mexican League. The right-handed hitter signed with El Águila de Veracruz. He hit .312/.409/.517 across 247 plate appearances and 62 games. He’ll now reportedly head to South Korea for his first career action outside of North America.

Puig has appeared in seven big league seasons, including star-level showings in each of his first two years with the Dodgers. He appeared on MVP balloting in both 2013 and 2014, earning an All-Star selection in the latter of those seasons. From 2015 onwards, Puig settled in as a solid but not elite offensive player, posting slightly above-average marks until his average 2019 showing. For his career, he’s a .277/.348/.475 hitter.

Bud Fowler, Gil Hodges, Jim Kaat, Minnie Minoso, Tony Oliva, Buck O’Neil Elected To Baseball Hall Of Fame

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Six legendary names have been inducted to the National Baseball Hall Of Fame, as per the results of today’s special selection committee meetings.  Bud Fowler, Gil Hodges, Jim Kaat, Minnie Minoso, Tony Oliva, and Buck O’Neil have all been elected to Cooperstown, and will be officially inducted on July 24 along with any players voted in by the regular writers’ ballot.

Often referred to as “veterans committee” selections, the Baseball Hall Of Fame now organizes an annual panel with a differing membership that focuses on a rotation of different eras in the sport’s history.  The Early Baseball (covering candidates from 1871-1949) committee meets once per decade, the Golden Days (1950-1969) committee once every five years, and the Modern Baseball (1970-1987) and Today’s Game (1988-present) committees meet twice each during every five-year period.

Last year’s vote was postponed due to the pandemic, so this winter saw both the Early Baseball and Golden Days committees each meet, resulting in 20 possible candidates for Cooperstown.  Each committee was comprised of 16 members, and each member can list as many as four names on their voting ballot.  Candidates must receive at least 12 votes to receive induction into the Hall of Fame.

Minoso, Hodges, Kaat, and Oliva were inducted on the Golden Days ballot.  Minoso received 14 votes, while Hodges, Kaat, and Oliva all received 12 votes apiece.  Dick Allen fell just short with 11 votes, another unfortunate close call after Allen also missed out on the 2015 ballot by a single vote.  Other candidates on the ballot included Ken Boyer, Roger Maris, Danny Murtaugh, Billy Pierce, and Maury Wills, who all received three or fewer votes.

O’Neil and Fowler were inducted via the Early Baseball ballot, with O’Neil receiving 13 of 16 votes and Fowler receiving 12 votes.  Other candidates on the ballot receiving votes were Vic Harris (10 votes), John Donaldson (eight), Allie Reynolds (six), Lefty O’Doul (five), and George Scales (four), while Bill Dahlen, Grant “Home Run” Johnson, and Dick Redding received three or fewer votes.

This edition of the Early Baseball ballot put a renewed focus on the Negro Leagues.  Donaldson, Johnson, Redding, and Scales were all star Negro League players, while O’Neil both played and managed in the NAL before becoming a coach with the Cubs and a longtime scout in the Cubs and Royals organizations.

In addition, Fowler was arguably the first black professional player, an accomplished second baseman who spent his career barnstorming around North America playing with many all-black teams and some integrated amateur teams.  Fowler also founded and organized several teams and leagues both during and beyond his playing days, with his influence as an early pioneer helping set the stage for what we now recognize as the Negro Leagues.  Fowler, whose birth name was John Jackson in 1858, also spent part of his childhood growing up in Cooperstown.

There has been perhaps no greater ambassador for either the Negro Leagues or even baseball itself than O’Neil, one of the game’s most beloved figures.  Beyond his on-field success as a player, O’Neil helped scout and then shape the careers of countless players during his long career, and he became the first black coach in MLB history when hired by the Cubs in 1962.

It was widely expected that O’Neil would receive induction into the HOF back in 2006 when a special committee was formed to focus on Negro Leagues legends, and yet while 17 other illustrious names were given the nod for Cooperstown, O’Neil was surprisingly omitted.  Nonetheless, O’Neil took the decision with his customary grace, and even spoke at the induction ceremony that summer.  O’Neil passed away later that same year.

Minoso also began his career in the Negro Leagues, as the Cuba native spent parts of three seasons with the New York Cubans before debuting in the big leagues with the Indians in 1949.  Minoso played parts of 20 seasons in the majors (12 with the White Sox), hitting .299/.387/.461 over 8223 career plate appearances and receiving 13 total All-Star selections.  Minoso finished as high as fourth in MVP voting on five different occasions, and won three Gold Gloves.

Later generations might remember Minoso for his cameo appearances in 1976 and 1980, as White Sox owner Bill Veeck arranged for Minoso (at ages 50 and 54) to play in five games and thus become only the second player to play Major League Baseball in five different decades.  Beyond that quirky footnote, however, Minoso has an incredible legacy as an icon to both Cuban players in particular, and for Hispanic baseball players across generations.

Speaking of footnotes, Hodges’ status as the player who received the most HOF votes on the writers’ ballot without ever receiving induction to Cooperstown is now a thing of the past.  While Hodges’ initial path to the Hall may have been hampered by a lack of league-leading or even team-leading credentials, Hodges still put together an outstanding career, hitting .273/.359/.487 with 370 home runs over 8104 career PA in 18 seasons with the Dodgers and Mets.

It isn’t as if Hodges was overlooked in his time, as he was an eight-time All-Star and the winner of three Gold Gloves.  He also captured two World Series titles with the Dodgers as a player, and added a third ring as a manager in 1969, leading the out-of-nowhere Mets to one of the most surprising championships in sports history.

A prototype of the old-school workhorse pitcher, Kaat pitched 4530 1/3 innings and 180 complete games over 25 years in the majors, while posting a 3.45 ERA.  One of the best-fielding pitchers of all time, Kaat won 16 Gold Gloves during his career, tied for the second-highest total of GGs for any player at any position.  The southpaw also received three All-Star nods, and won a late-career World Series title while working out of the Cardinals bullpen in 1982.

Kaat played for five different teams over his long career, but spent 15 of his seasons with the Twins.  Twelve of those seasons overlapped with Oliva’s Minnesota career, and now the two former teammates will join forces once again on their way into the Hall of Fame.

Oliva spent all 15 of his seasons in a Twins uniform, beginning his career with a bang by winning Rookie Of The Year honors in 1964.  In defiance of the sophomore slump, Oliva became the first player to ever win batting titles in his first two seasons, and he also added a third batting crown in 1971.  Oliva hit .304/.353/.476 with 220 home runs over 6880 PA, and it is fair to wonder if Oliva could’ve added considerably to this resume had he not been beset by several injuries in the latter years of his career.  His relatively short prime may have been the reason it took so long for Cooperstown recognition, and yet what a prime it was — Oliva was an All-Star every year from 1964 to 1971, and was a runner-up in AL MVP voting in both 1965 and 1970.

The 16 members of the Early Baseball panel were Bert Blyleven, Ferguson Jenkins, Ozzie Smith, Joe Torre, John Schuerholz, Bill DeWitt, Ken Kendrick, Tony Reagins, Gary Ashwill, Adrian Burgos Jr., Leslie Heaphy, Jim Henneman, Justice Hill, Steve Hirdt, Rick Hummel and John Thorn.

The 16 members of the Golden Days panel were Jenkins, Smith, Torre, Schuerholz, DeWitt, Kendrick, Reagins, Burgos, Hirdt, Rod Carew, Mike Schmidt, Bud Selig, Al Avila, Kim Ng, Jaime Jarrin and Jack O’Connell.

Padres To Sign Nick Martinez To Four-Year Deal

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THURSDAY, 7:45am: Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that Martinez remains a free agent, though sources tell MLBTR that there is no concern the deal won’t be completed after the lockout since an agreement is in place between Martinez and the Padres.  It’s also worth noting that Martinez is set to earn $7MM in 2022, so he’d be leaving three years and $13MM on the table if he decides to opt out.

WEDNESDAY, 9:21pm: The Padres are signing Nick Martínez to a four-year, $20MM contract, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link).  The deal includes opt-outs after the first two years. The right-hander has spent the past four seasons pitching in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. His contract with the NPB’s Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks just expired today, but his representatives worked quickly to find him a big league landing spot before the anticipated transactions freeze.  Martinez is represented by Brian Mejia, Ulises Cabrera, and Alan Nero of Octagon.

Martínez is making his return to the majors for the first time since 2017, though he did pitch for Team USA in the Tokyo Olympics this summer. The Florida native was drafted and developed by the Rangers, where current San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller was then a prominent member of the scouting department. Martínez debuted in 2014 and worked as a back-of-the-rotation arm for the next few seasons.

Martinez, 31, posted a stellar 1.62 ERA with a 24.8 K% and 6.6 BB% for the Hawks this year in 149 2/3 innings.  According to Sung Min Kim, Martinez’s fastball velocity increased to nearly 94 miles per hour this year, and his changeup has become more effective.  Several American pitchers have revived their careers in NPB or KBO in recent years and returned to MLB on big league deals, including Chris Flexen, Josh Lindblom, Merrill Kelly, and Miles Mikolas.  Martinez’s contract tops all of them, as Mikolas had inked a two-year, $15.5MM deal with the Cardinals four years ago.  Plus, Martinez maintains the ability to re-enter free agency if he’s able to have success in 2022 or ’23.

Martinez’s $5MM AAV is key for the Padres, one of only two teams to exceed the $210MM luxury tax threshold in 2021.  The club is currently in a similar place for 2022, though we don’t know how much success the players’ union will have in increasing the base tax threshold.

Martinez joins a Padres rotation that currently includes Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Mike Clevinger.  Chris Paddack, Dinelson Lamet, and Ryan Weathers also figure to be in the mix.  Though that’s significant depth, but it’s plausible that Preller might look to trade someone as a means of clearing payroll.  The Padres already sent Adam Frazier to the Mariners to clear an estimated $7MM or so.

Aside from the Frazier trade, the Padres added to their stock of catchers by acquiring Jorge Alfaro from the Marlins.    They also signed a pair of relievers today in Luis Garcia and Robert Suarez, with the latter having played against Martinez in NPB this year.  There’s a sense that the Padres have plenty of additional offseason moves to make, but like the other 29 teams everything will go on pause until the lockout ends.

Major League Baseball Institutes Lockout

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Major League Baseball has officially instituted a lockout. The 2016-21 collective bargaining agreement between MLB owners and the players’ union expired at 10:59pm central time tonight. It has long been clear that Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association would not have a new deal signed before the current contract ran its course.  With no agreement reached, the league’s owners unanimously voted to institute a lockout, according to a report from Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter link).

Commissioner Rob Manfred announced the lockout as part of a pre-prepared letter to fans (full text available here), Manfred wrote in part:

“Simply put, we believe that an offseason lockout is the best mechanism to protect the 2022 season. We hope that the lockout will jumpstart the negotiations and get us to an agreement that will allow the season to start on time. This defensive lockout was necessary because the Players Association’s vision for Major League Baseball would threaten the ability of most teams to be competitive. It’s simply not a viable option. From the beginning, the MLBPA has been unwilling to move from their starting position, compromise, or collaborate on solutions.”

Manfred went on to state that the MLBPA “came to the bargaining table with a strategy of confrontation over compromise” and “never wavered from collectively the most extreme set of proposals in their history, including significant cuts to the revenue-sharing system, a weakening of the competitive balance tax, and shortening the period of time that players play for their teams. All of these changes would make our game less competitive, not more.”

The MLB Players Association released a statement of its own (on Twitter). It reads in part:

“Major League Baseball has announced a lockout of Players, shutting down our industry. This shutdown is a dramatic measure, regardless of the timing. It is not required by law or for any other reason. It was the owners’ choice, plain and simple, specifically calculate to pressure Players into relinquishing rights and benefits, and abandoning good faith bargaining proposals that will benefit not just Players, but the game and industry as a whole. … We remain determined to return to the field under the terms of a negotiated collective bargaining agreement that is fair to all parties, and provides fans with the best version of the game we all love.”

As the MLBPA suggested, the league was not under a mandate to lock the players out. Even in the absence of a CBA, the offseason could have proceeded. As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explored a few months ago, the sides continued to conduct offseason business during the last winters (1993-94 and 94-95) that proceeded without a CBA in place.

There’s been little expectation MLB wouldn’t institute a lockout once this CBA expired, however. Locking out in the absence of an agreement has become the typical practice in other professional sports leagues, as management hasn’t wanted to afford players the choice whether to go on strike at a later date. The players eventually went on strike during the 1994 season, for example, spurred on by ownership’s imposition of a salary cap. The sides didn’t reach a new agreement that year, and that season’s World Series was ultimately cancelled.

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred implied the league would take this course of action a few weeks ago. Pointing to the ’94 strike and other sports leagues as justification, Manfred indicated a lockout would be on the table if no agreement were hammered out by December 1.  “I don’t think ’94 worked out too great for anybody,” the commissioner told reporters earlier this month. “I think when you look at other sports, the pattern has become to control the timing of the labor dispute and try to minimize the prospect of actual disruption of the season. That’s what it’s about: It’s avoiding doing damage to the season.”

With the lockout in place, teams will be prohibited from making any major league transactions until a new CBA is agreed upon. We’ve seen a flurry of activity — particularly via free agency — in the days leading up to the CBA expiration in response, as many clubs and players have wanted to pin down some certainty before a potential work stoppage.

A transactions freeze will be the most visible semblance of the lockout for fans, at least until the potential for game cancellations if no deal is agreed upon within a couple months. A ban on transactions is certainly not the only effect, however. Jeff Passan of ESPN explored some intricacies of the situation earlier this week in a piece that’s well worth a full read. A few of the less visible effects: injured players will not be allowed to communicate with team training staffs, players are no longer allowed to use team-run mental health services, and some foreign-born players may run into visa issues.  Don’t expect press conferences for newly signed players or interviews with GMs, either.

The lockout is unfamiliar territory for a generation of baseball fans; this is the first work stoppage in this website’s 16-year history. It’ll mark the first official work stoppage since 1994, snapping a run of nearly three decades of labor peace. The parties had discussions each day this week, but it doesn’t seem they made much progress. Evan Drellich of the Athletic reported this afternoon that the league refused to make a counter-offer on the service time structure and luxury tax thresholds unless the MLBPA dropped its efforts to push earlier free agency eligibility for players, a demand the union reportedly refused.

The league did give some ground on the competitive balance tax, with Drellich reporting MLB proposed a gradual increase of the lowest tax threshold to an endpoint of $220MM. However, that remains a fair bit shy of the MLBPA’s $240MM goal, and it’s not clear if the league’s proposed increase also involved a corresponding uptick in penalties paid for exceeding those markers.

There’s certainly plenty to be hammered out beyond the luxury tax. The service time system, arbitration and fundamental competitive structure of the league (including the number of playoff teams) will all at least be discussed over the coming weeks. That’s saying nothing of potential on-field rules changes like the extra-inning runner and the universal designated hitter. With so much yet to be determined, it’s generally not expected an agreement will be reached in short order.  The 2022 spring training schedule could potentially dictate when the lockout ends, with owners likely reluctant to forgo exhibition game revenue.

The Winter Meetings, originally scheduled for December 6 through 9 in Orlando, have been cancelled, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). The commissioner is scheduled to conduct a press conference tomorrow morning.

Orioles To Sign Jordan Lyles

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The Orioles are in agreement with right-hander Jordan Lyles on a one-year, $7MM guarantee with a 2023 club option, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). The deal is pending a physical, which is expected to take place after the work stoppage.  Lyles is represented by Ballengee Group.

If the Lyles deal is completed, it will mark the Orioles’ largest free agent expenditure since Mike Elias was hired as Executive Vice President and General Manager three years ago.  Elias’ previous largest free agency outlay had been a $3MM deal for Jose Iglesias.  Adding veteran Major League talent has not been a priority during Elias’ rebuild.  In 2022, Lyles and Trey Mancini figure to be the only Orioles to be paid as much as $7MM.  The Orioles have run a bottom-four payroll for the entirety of Elias’ tenure.

Drafted 38th overall by the Astros out of a South Carolina high school in 2008, Lyles peaked as a top 50 prospect prior to the 2011 season – around the time Elias moved from the Cardinals to the Astros with fellow executive Jeff Luhnow.  Luhnow ended up trading Lyles to the Rockies for Dexter Fowler in 2013.

Lyles, 31, posted a 5.15 ERA, 19 K%, 7.3 BB%, and 37.6% groundball rate in 180 innings for the Rangers this year.  There wasn’t much to like about Lyles’ season other than his taking the ball 30 times, which is a big need for an Orioles rotation with no reliable members after John Means.  After a decent 2019 season for the Pirates and Brewers, the Rangers gave Lyles a two-year, $16MM contract.  The righty struggled throughout his time in Texas.

Given that lack of success, Lyles’ contract is a bit higher than you might expect.  Perhaps that’s the cost of luring a pitcher to one of the game’s worst teams.  Lyles received more than Rich Hill or Dylan Bundy ($5MM), the same as Michael Wacha, and only $1MM less than Corey Kluber.  If the contract is completed, he’ll join Means and perhaps Bruce Zimmermann in the rotation with a cast of pitchers competing for remaining spots – unless Means is traded post-lockout.  Prize prospects Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall should debut at some point during 2022, having both reached Double-A in ’21.

Brewers Acquire Hunter Renfroe From Red Sox For Jackie Bradley Jr., Two Prospects

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The Red Sox and Brewers announced agreement on a trade sending corner outfielder Hunter Renfroe to Milwaukee. In return, the Red Sox are reacquiring longtime center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. and two prospects, infielders David Hamilton and Alex Binelas.

It’s an out-of-the-blue swap pulled off just minutes before the work stoppage. Renfroe, 30 next month, is coming off a solid season. Signed by the Red Sox to a $3.1MM guarantee last winter, the former first-round pick emerged as Boston’s primary right fielder. He tallied 572 plate appearances and hit .259/.315/.501 with 31 home runs. By measure of wRC+, Renfroe’s overall offensive output was 14 percentage points above the league average in 2021, tied for the highest mark of his career.

Renfroe rated as a league average defender by measure of Defensive Runs Saved. He tied for the league lead with 16 outfield assists, often showcasing a cannon of an arm that scouts have lauded since his days as a prospect. But both DRS and Statcast’s Outs Above Average pegged his range as a bit below average, with the overall glovework coming out fairly middle-of-the-road.

Even if he’s not likely to win a Gold Glove, Renfroe is a capable right fielder who figures to assume a similar everyday role in Milwaukee. The Brewers lost Avisaíl García to the Marlins in free agency and seemed likely to rely on some combination of Bradley and Tyrone Taylor in right field. Each of Renfroe or Taylor could now spell veteran Lorenzo Cain in center field in the case of rest days or injury for the 35-year-old.

Renfroe steps in to upgrade that mix and add some punch to a Milwaukee lineup that ranked just 17th in slugging percentage this past season despite playing its home games in one of the league’s more hitter-friendly environments. He remains controllable via arbitration through the end of the 2023 season (barring changes to the service time structure in the next collective bargaining agreement). He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $7.6MM salary in 2022.

That’s a bit cheaper than Bradley, who will play next season on a $9.5MM deal after exercising a player option last month. Renfroe’s also coming off a far superior showing, as Bradley had a nightmarish 2021 campaign at the plate. Milwaukee signed Bradley to a two-year guarantee last offseason, but he managed only a .163/.236/.261 mark over his 428 plate appearances with the Brew Crew.

By measure of wRC+, Bradley’s offensive numbers were an astounding 65 points below league average. That ranked last among the 262 hitters with 300+ trips to the plate, with essentially nothing going right for Bradley offensively. His strikeout rate spiked to a career-high 30.8%, while his walk percentage dipped to a personal-low 6.5%. Bradley’s six home runs marked his lowest total in seven years, as did his .095 ISO (slugging minus batting average).

To his credit, Bradley continued to play his typical brand of excellent defense. The former Gold Glove winner rated as twelve runs above average over his 915 1/3 innings on the grass. Statcast, meanwhile, estimated he was worth four Outs Above Average. Yet even a gloveman as excellent as Bradley isn’t providing much overall value with an offensive showing as poor as he had in 2021.

It’s not especially surprising the Milwaukee front office was looking for opportunities to upgrade over Bradley’s spot in the lineup, and they found one via his old team. While the Brewers will add an offensive upgrade, the Red Sox bring Bradley back to Boston in hopes that a return to that environment can unlock some of his prior production. Bradley was a fan favorite and generally strong player over nearly a decade with the Red Sox, first joining the organization as a supplemental first-round pick in 2010.

Bradley became an important member of the Sox’s lineup by 2014, spending most of the next seven seasons as a regular. His highlight-reel defense in center endeared him to the Boston faithful, and the left-handed hitter occasionally flashed potential on offense. His final season with the Red Sox was one of his best, as Bradley hit .283/.364/.450 with seven homers and five steals across 217 plate appearances during the truncated 2020 campaign.

The Boston front office will take a shot on a rebound at the plate while presumably installing Bradley back into the center field mix. Doing so would free up utilityman Enrique Hernández to play second base more frequently, with Alex Verdugo and top prospect Jarren Duran flanking Bradley on the corners. Of course, the Sox could look for future additions to the position player mix, with a right-handed hitting outfielder capable of complementing the lefty-swinging trio of Verdugo, Bradley and Duran standing out as an obvious fit.

Bradley’s contract also contains a $12MM mutual option for 2023 that comes with an $8MM buyout. The Red Sox are assuming a decent chunk of guaranteed money down the line in order to acquire a pair of fairly well-regarded young position players. Each of Hamilton and Binelas was ranked by Baseball America among Milwaukee’s top 20 prospects midseason.

Hamilton, 24, was an eighth-rounder of the University of Texas in 2019. He sat out that season recovering from an Achilles rupture he’d suffered during his junior year with the Longhorns, and last year’s canceled minor league campaign meant he didn’t play in affiliated ball until 2021. The left-handed hitter split his time between High-A and Double-A, hitting .259/.341/.419 with eight homers and 52 stolen bases across 459 plate appearances. Unsurprisingly given that impressive steal tally, the 5’10” middle infielder draws strong marks from scouts for his speed and athleticism, in addition to a sound approach at the plate.

Binelas, 21, was the Brewers’ third-round pick in last summer’s draft. Regarded as a potential first round talent entering his final season at the University of Louisville, he slumped through a down year that dealt a blow to his stock. The left-handed hitter did his best to put that behind him over a brief showing in Low-A after draft day, though, hitting .314/.379/.636 with nine homers in 132 trips to the plate.

A corner infielder, Binelas spent the bulk of his time in college and in the minors at third base. BA suggested midseason it looked unlikely he’d stick at the hot corner and projected his future lying at first or perhaps in left field. Binelas will need to hit to carry that profile, but he’s flashed power, plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills in the past. His strong showing in Low-A — while somewhat to be expected for a player drafted out of one of the top conferences in college baseball — is a strong start in that regard.

Altogether, it’s a fascinating deal — likely the final swap we’ll see for quite some time with a transaction freeze now in place. The Brewers lock in a much-needed lineup upgrade to replace a player they lost on the open market. The Red Sox improve a spotty team defense while bringing back a player who’s had plenty of success in their uniform in years past, taking on a fair bit of long-term money to also add some younger talent to the organization.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox Sign James Paxton

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The Red Sox continue to bolster their rotation, announcing agreement on a deal with James Paxton. It’s a one-year guarantee that also contains a club option that covers both the 2023-24 seasons. According to reports, Paxton will receive a $6MM salary in 2022. After next season, the club can choose to exercise a pair of options valued at $13MM apiece for the following two campaigns. If the team declines their end of the deal, Paxton would have the right to exercise a $4MM player option for 2023. Altogether, it’s a $10MM guarantee for the Boras Corporation client that could pay him $32MM if the team exercises the options.

Paxton is coming off a pair of lost seasons. Injuries limited him to five starts in 2020, his final campaign with the Yankees. The Mariners brought Paxton back on a buy-low $8.5MM guarantee. Unfortunately, the big southpaw blew out his elbow in the second inning of his first start of 2021. He underwent Tommy John surgery in April, the second such procedure of his career.

It’s not known when Paxton will be ready to return, but he’s almost certain to begin next season on the injured list. Tommy John procedures typically require a twelve to fourteen month recovery. That general area would seem to suggest a mid-summer return for Paxton, although it’s not clear precisely where he stands in recovery.

The Sox are surely hoping Paxton will be able to contribute at some point down the stretch next season, with the power lefty ideally serving as a boost to a potential playoff run. At his best, the Canadian hurler is certainly capable of being an impact member of a club’s rotation. Paxton pitched to a 3.54 ERA over 447 innings between 2017-19, striking out a massive 30.1% of batters faced while walking only 7.3% of opponents. That’s the kind of hurler to whom teams would feel comfortable giving playoff starts, and the Boston front office is rolling the dice on him regaining some of that form.

Were Paxton to pick up where he left off in 2019, he could be a long-term play for the Red Sox. Boston picks up some additional upside in the form of the option, a two-year consideration they’ll have to decide upon next winter. It’s a single provision that, if exercised, would guarantee Paxton’s salaries for both 2023 and 2024.

It’s a risk/reward play for chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and his staff. Boston’s incumbent rotation already looked to be one of the higher-variance units around the league. Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi have both looked like top-of-the-rotation arms at their best — Sale’s one of the best pitchers of this generation, of course — but come with questions about their health. Nick Pivetta has huge stuff but a spotty track record at the big league level. Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock both impressed in 2021 but come with starter/relief questions. Paxton’s addition further raises that group’s ceiling, but he’s not the kind of reliable innings-eating type one could argue Boston still needs as a stabilizer.

Chad Dey of Sportsnet first reported Paxton was in agreement with the Red Sox. Jeff Passan of ESPN was first with the $10MM guarantee, as well as the presence of the 2023-24 club option. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported the option could bring the value of the deal as high as $35MM. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reported the presence of the player option and specific terms.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox Sign Rich Hill

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The Red Sox announced Wednesday that they’ve signed veteran starter Rich Hill to a one-year contract. It’s reportedly a $5MM guarantee that contains up to $3MM more in incentives based on innings pitched. Hill is a client of ACES.

This is remarkably the seventh different contract Hill has signed with the Red Sox. Between various stints, he’s suited up for the Sox in parts of four seasons. After pitching for Boston from 2010-12, Hill returned for a late-season cameo in 2015. That four-start stretch kicked off the remarkable late-career renaissance he has put together over the past six years.

Hill’s showing with the Red Sox earned him a rotation job in Oakland the following season. After continuing to thrive with the A’s, he landed with the Dodgers at the 2016 trade deadline. Hill re-signed with L.A. that winter, ultimately spending the next three seasons in Dodger blue. He has bounced between the Twins, Rays and Mets over the past two years.

Things will come full circle as Hill returns to Boston for his age-42 campaign. It’ll be his 18th year logging at least some major league action, a testament to his incredible longevity and persistence. Of course, that he keeps landing big league opportunities is just as much a reflection of his continued productivity.

Hill hasn’t posted an ERA above 4.00 since his 2016 breakout. This past season’s 3.86 mark was his highest in that time, but Hill also shouldered his heaviest workload in fourteen years. Between Tampa Bay and New York, the southpaw tallied 158 2/3 frames over 32 appearances (31 starts), a top 50 total league-wide. He did so with roughly average strikeout and walk numbers (22.7% and 8.3%, respectively).

Boston has now added three potential rotation arms on one-year guarantees this winter. The Sox signed Michael Wacha for $7MM and are reportedly in agreement with James Paxton on a $10MM guarantee that contains a 2023-24 club option. They join an incumbent group led by Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi and Nick Pivetta. Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock could be options for either the rotation or the bullpen as well, giving the front office and manager Alex Cora plenty of moving pieces with which to construct a staff.

Alex Speier of the Boston Globe first reported the Red Sox and Hill were in agreement on a one-year deal. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the $5MM guarantee and possible incentives.

Dodgers Re-Sign Chris Taylor

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The Dodgers are retaining at least one of their top free agents, announcing agreement on a four-year contract with Chris Taylor. It’s reportedly a $60MM guarantee for the Meister Sports Management client that also contains a 2026 club option which could bring the value of the deal as high as $73MM.

According to reports, Taylor will be paid $15MM salaries in each of the next two seasons, followed by successive $13MM guarantees in 2024-25. He’s also guaranteed at least a $4MM buyout on the 2026 option, which is valued at $12MM. He’d receive a $2MM assignment bonus for every time he’s traded over the course of the deal. Additionally, the value of Taylor’s option season would increase by $3MM if he’s traded within the next two seasons, by $2MM if he’s traded between the end of the 2023 and the end of the 2024 campaigns, or by $1MM if he’s traded between the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2026. The option price would also escalate by $1MM if he tallies 525 plate appearances, earns an All-Star nomination or wins a Silver Slugger Award during the 2025 campaign.

Taylor’s guarantee falls a bit shy of MLBTR’s four-year, $64MM projection entering the offseason. He had hit the market as a fairly atypical free agent, having never settled into one spot on a star-studded Dodgers roster while bouncing around the diamond in a utility capacity. Despite his lack of a settled role, Taylor has gotten into the lineup on a near everyday basis, earning the organization’s trust with rare offensive punch for a utilityman.

The Dodgers acquired Taylor from the Mariners in a seemingly minor 2016 deal. That proved to be one of the more shrewd pick-ups of president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman’s tenure in L.A., though, as Taylor has been a highly productive player essentially from that moment on. The right-handed hitter has posted above-average offensive numbers (by measure of wRC+) in each of the past five seasons.

Taylor gets to that production with a strong blend of plate discipline and power. He rarely chases pitches outside the strike zone, and he’s become especially adept at drawing walks over the past few seasons. He also brings 15-20 home run power to the table despite playing in a pitcher-friendly environment in L.A. That’s helped Taylor offset higher than average strikeout rates to remain a quality offensive player.

Going back to his 2017 breakout, the Virginia native owns a .265/.343/.461 cumulative line. That’s 16 percentage points above the league average output, not far off his numbers in his platform campaign. Taylor hit .254/.344/.438 with 20 homers in 582 plate appearances in 2021, translating to a 113 wRC+ (13 points above average). He started especially hot, posting a .277/.382/.452 mark through the season’s first half en route to his first career All-Star selection.

While Taylor’s multi-year track record always looked likely to pay him handsomely this offseason, he did seem at one point as though he’d hit the market on a down note. The 31-year-old slumped to a .223/.290/.419 line over the regular season’s second half, seeing his strikeout rate spike to 33.1% in the process. But Taylor put any questions about his tough finish to rest with a monster postseason, popping four homers in 43 playoff plate appearances (including a walk-off shot in the National League Wild Card game) to help the Dodgers to the NL Championship Series.

Valuable as Taylor is offensively, he’s perhaps more well-known for his defense. Taylor has functioned as a true utility player over the years, starting games at every position other than first base and catcher. He spends the bulk of his time at the higher-value positions up the middle of the diamond, particularly at second base and in center field.

His return will give skipper Dave Roberts plenty of flexibility, and it’s likely Taylor will continue to assume that rover role now that he’s back in Dodger blue. Looking at the 2022 roster, it seems the bulk of that time could come at second base.

Taylor played very little at the keystone down the stretch after L.A. acquired Trea Turner from the Nationals at the trade deadline. With Corey Seager now in Texas, Turner looks likely to slide back to his typical shortstop position. That’d leave Taylor and Gavin Lux as the favorites for playing time at second, with either player also capable of spelling the presumptive starting outfield of AJ Pollock, Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts.

The specific breakdown of Taylor’s deal has yet to be reported, but the $15MM average annual value is the meaningful figure from a competitive balance tax perspective. Luxury tax calculations are based on deals’ AAV’s as opposed to actual payouts structures. After accounting for the Taylor deal, the Dodgers’ 2022 CBT number sits around $231MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’d have handily exceeded the $210MM first threshold in 2021, although it’s impossible to know precisely where the CBT markers will land in the next collective bargaining agreement.

The Taylor signing also has an indirect effect on the Dodgers’ 2022 draft. He’d received and rejected an $18.4MM qualifying offer at the outset of the offseason. The Dodgers won’t directly forfeit a pick for re-signing their own free agent, but they are bypassing the pick they’d have received had they allowed Taylor to sign elsewhere. That’s a small price to pay for a player of Taylor’s caliber, though, particularly for the Dodgers. Because they exceeded the CBT threshold in 2021, they’d have only stood to recoup a pick after the fourth round had they allowed Taylor to walk.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Dodgers and Taylor were making progress on an agreement. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the sides had reached an agreement, as well as first with the contract terms. The Associated Press reported the specific breakdown of terms.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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