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Brewers Sign Avisail Garcia

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The Brewers have finalized their third free-agent signing of the past week, announcing Tuesday that they’ve agreed to a two-year contract with outfielder Avisail Garcia. The Mato Sports Management client will reportedly be guaranteed a total of $20MM and can earn up to $30MM if a 2021 club option is exercised.

The contract is said to come with a $500K signing bonus, a $7MM salary in 2020 and a $10.5MM salary in 2021. The $12MM club option contains a $2MM buyout and can be converted to a mutual option if Garcia reaches 550 plate appearances in 2021 or totals 1050 plate appearances over the first two seasons of the contract.

“Avisaíl provides an impactful right-handed hitting force in our lineup,” president of baseball operations David Stearns said in a press release. “Adding him to our current group of outfielders strengthens what was already one of the strongest outfields in baseball.”

This move represents the first big move on the corner outfield market. Garcia ends up getting the two-year deal that MLBTR predicted, but at a greater rate of pay than we had supposed. The contract sets an important market marker for fellow youthful, right-handed-hitting corner pieces Nicholas Castellanos, Marcell Ozuna, and Yasiel Puig.

Garcia actually received three-year offers, including from Milwaukee, according to Heyman. But he preferred the shorter pact, with the idea being that he will have a shot at returning to free agency in the first year of a new CBA. Whether that proves an optimal time to reenter the market remains to be seen, but Garcia — who won’t turn 29 until next June — will certainly still be rather young at that time.

This time last year, Garcia settled for a one-year bounceback deal with the Rays after he struggled through an injury-limited 2018 campaign. He made good on the contract, turning in 530 plate appearances of .282/.332/.464 hitting with twenty home runs, though that didn’t represent a full return to his breakout ’17 effort (.330/.380/.506).

The Brewers are betting that Garcia can at least replicate his showing last year in Tampa Bay. He graded well with the glove and has surprisingly outstanding sprint speed. While he doesn’t walk much, Garcia doesn’t strike out a ton and has shown he can hit for a high average. It’s certainly possible to envision the talented player putting it all together and delivering a star-caliber performance in Milwaukee.

Despite two-straight postseason appearances, the Brewers have taken an aggressive approach to turning over their roster this winter. The club now has a bit of an overload in the outfield, although the Brewers are generally aggressive in terms of rotating players through multiple positions. Per MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy (Twitter link), manager Craig Counsell has informed Garcia that the team plans to utilize him in left field and in center field next season, with Ryan Braun moving around (i.e. spending time at first base) in order to accommodate the new arrangement. Garcia also has ample experience in right field, which could help to ease the burden on Christian Yelich early in the year as he returns from a season-ending patella fracture.

Jose F. Rivera of ESPN Deportes broke the news that the two sides were close to an agreement. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported the agreement and terms (via Twitter). USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the annual breakdown (Twitter links).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Twins, Sergio Romo Agree To Deal

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Dec. 17: Romo’s new deal comes with a $4.75MM salary in 2020, reports La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. The 2021 option is valued at $5MM and comes with a $250K buyout, bringing the maximum value to $9.75MM over two years.

Dec. 16: The Twins are nearing a deal with reliever Sergio Romo, according to MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (via Twitter). If and when it’s complete, it’ll be a one-year arrangement that guarantees the Meister Sports client $5MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). It seems the pact could grow to $10MM in total value if a 2021 option is exercised, but the precise details still aren’t clear.

Romo gave the Minnesota organization just what it was looking for when he came over in a summer trade. In 27 appearances, he carried a 27:4 K/BB ratio. Including his early-season work with the Marlins, Romo rode his still-biting slider to 60 1/3 innings of 3.43 ERA pitching.

Given that Romo will turn 37 before the start of the next season, it’s fair to wonder how much longer he can keep this going. Then again, he has continued to deliver good innings with much the same formula as ever before. And the Twins don’t need to worry about the long haul here. Romo is being paid for his stabilizing presence in the relief corps of a team that fully intends to contend in 2020.

That the value-conscious, analytically inclined Twins front office kept pace with the bidding on Romo is a strong indication that expectations are relatively high. While he isn’t the K/BB monster he once was — he produced seventy of the former and just five of the latter in 2011 — Romo still produced a 13.9% swinging-strike rate last year. Durability isn’t a concern. Over his dozen years in the majors, Romo has thrown 623 frames and carried a 2.92 ERA along the way.

It’s still possible imagine another bullpen move for the Twins, but this fills a big need on the Minnesota roster. That leaves the focus, as ever, on the club’s rotation. With Madison Bumgarner becoming the latest top starter to head elsewhere, and the rival White Sox among the organizations still facing a need in the rotation, the intrigue is perhaps only increasing.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rays Sign Yoshitomo Tsutsugo

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DECEMBER 16: Tampa Bay has announced the signing. Interestingly, it characterizes him as a third baseman and outfielder, which obviously suggests that Tsutsugo will be in the mix at the hot corner.

DECEMBER 13: The Rays are finalizing a two-year contract with Japanese slugger Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports (via Twitter). The contract being discussed would guarantee the first baseman/outfielder about $12MM total, per Topkin. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman indicates that a deal has been agreed upon (Twitter links).

Because he was posted by the Yokohama DeNA BayStars and is not a pure free agent, Tsutsugo would require the Rays to pay a posting/release fee to his former team. Under the current iteration of that system, a fee equal to 20 percent of a player’s first $25MM in guarantees is owed to his former team. That’d be $2.4MM on a $12MM contract, meaning a deal of this type for Tsutsugo would cost the Rays a total of about $14.4MM.

Tsutsugo, who turned 28 on Nov. 26, has been one of Japan’s most prominent sluggers for the past four seasons, hitting a combined .293/.402/.574 with 139 home runs, 116 doubles, five triples, a 15.1 percent walk rate and a 20.4 percent strikeout rate. His best season came back in 2016, when he launched a career-high 44 home runs and slashed .322/.430/.680. It’s worth noting that Tsutsugo’s 2019 season was his weakest of the past four (.272/.388/.511, 29 home runs) and saw his strikeout rate climb to 25.3 percent.

Listed at 6’0″ and 209 pounds, the left-handed-hitting Tsutsugo has played some third base in his career but primarily has been deployed as a left fielder and first baseman. He’ll presumably become an option at first base and DH with Tampa Bay, although the Rays’ fluid rotation of defensive players could afford the slugger some reps in the corners as well, particularly if the team wants to give newly acquired Hunter Renfroe a day off against a tough right-handed opponent. Renfroe hit just .208/.274/.459 against righties in 2019. On the surface, the signing of Tsutsugo appears to be bad news for first base prospect Nate Lowe, who also hits from the left side of the dish but never got a full look in 2019 despite huge numbers in Triple-A and a solid showing in 169 MLB plate appearances.

There’s little doubting Tsutsugo’s power, but his glovework is a much more considerable question. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote a bit more than a month ago that Tsutsugo is a potential everyday player but one with “no margin for error because of defensive limitations” even at first base. Sports Info Solutions’ Will Hoefer wrote in September that Tsutsugo has a plus throwing arm and could be “hidden” in an outfield corner with some proper positioning work. Those in the industry who’ve spoken to MLBTR about Tsutsugo offered similar concerns about his defensive home but praised his power as a legitimate tool.

Tsutsugo will now be added to an ever-changing cast of characters in a Tampa Bay lineup that has added Renfroe but subtracted Tommy Pham (Renfroe trade), Avisail Garcia (free agency) and Jesus Aguilar (waivers) to this point in the offseason. The signing of Tsutsugo could well put an end to any potential for a fit with free-agent slugger Edwin Encarnacion, who’d previously been a rumored target. Tsutsugo was also connected to the Tigers, Blue Jays, White Sox and Twins prior to today’s agreement with the Rays.

From a payroll vantage point, the deal should be a manageable one for the perennially low-spending Rays, who shed about $7.7MM in swapping out Pham for Renfroe and placing Aguilar on waivers. An even distribution of Tsutsugo’s $12MM guarantee would put the team’s Opening Day payroll at about $70.7MM (not including the posting fee), which would check in a bit south of last season’s $76MM Opening Day mark. The Rays have never opened the season with a payroll greater than 2014’s $77MM total.

Astros Re-Sign Joe Smith

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The Astros have announced a two-year deal to bring back reliever Joe Smith. The deal includes $8MM in guaranteed money, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). Smith is a client of Excel Sports Management.

Smith missed a big chunk of 2019 owing to a torn Achilles, but bounced back with aplomb and threw 25 excellent innings down the stretch. The 35-year-old sidearmer obviously convinced the Houston brass that he has plenty left in the tank.

Though he has rarely been a major strikeout pitcher, Smith has always produced strong groundball numbers. Outside of his tendon tear, he has been quite durable. And he has a long and consistent history of befuddling opposing hitters. In 695 1/3 frames at the game’s highest level, he carries a 2.98 ERA and has yet to finish a season with an ERA over 3.83.

Upon his return last year, Smith sat comfortably in his typical range in terms of velocity and swinging-strike rate. He attacked the zone more than ever and lived to tell the tale, unlike many 2019 pitchers in a longball-laden season.

Despite his relatively late return to action, the Astros had gained full trust by the end of the season. They went to Smith frequently in the postseason, with four appearances each in the ALCS and World Series after a pair of divisional showings. He ultimately allowed three earned runs in 8 2/3 innings.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rangers Sign Joely Rodriguez

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DECEMBER 16: Texas has announced the signing.

DECEMBER 9: The Rangers have agreed to a two-year, $5.5MM contract with left-hander Joely Rodriguez, pending a physical, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports. He’s represented by Daniel Szew of L.A. Sports Management.

Joey Rodriguez

The pact comes with a club option for a third year, per Jeff Passan of ESPN, and MLBTR’s Steve Adams further reports that the contract would be worth $8MM if the option is exercised. Rodriguez spent most of the previous two years, including all of last season, in Japan as a member of the Chunichi Dragons.

This move represents something of a homecoming for the 28-year-old Rodriguez, a reliever who pitched with the Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate in 2017. However, Rodriguez didn’t take a major league mound as a Ranger during his prior stint with the club. To this point, all of his MLB experience has come as part of the Phillies, with whom he combined for 36 2/3 innings from 2016-17. Rodriguez struggled to prevent runs over that short span, evidenced by a 5.40 ERA, and posted a dismal K/BB ratio of 1.32 with 6.14 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9. He did, however, induce groundballs at a strong 58.3 percent clip.

Rodriguez hasn’t thrived in the majors thus far, and the same applies to his time in Triple-A. At the minors’ top level, he owns a 5.38 ERA with 6.8 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 across 164 innings. To Rodriguez’s credit, though, he starred in Japan. Over 87 2/3 frames as a Dragon, Rodriguez put up a stingy 1.85 ERA and logged 10.6 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. He parlayed that success into an unexpected payday in the majors, where he’ll return to join a Rangers team that has been aggressive on the pitching market this winter. They previously added starters Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles on contracts worth a combined $44MM.

As was the case with their rotation, the Rangers entered the offseason with bullpen issues, as their relief corps finished 2019 with mediocre marks. Going forward, it seems likely they’ll count on Rodriguez as one of their late-game bridges, though it’s anyone’s guess whether he’ll be able to carry the excellence he displayed in Japan to Texas.

Mets Sign Rick Porcello

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Dec. 16: The Mets have formally announced the signing.

Dec. 12: The Mets have struck a deal with free agent righty Rick Porcello, according to Ken Rosenthal and Eno Sarris of The Athletic (via Twitter). It’s a one-year, $10MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

This is a long-rumored match that’ll put the New Jersey native back in familiar territory. It’s a bit surprising to see now, though, after the Mets reportedly agreed yesterday to ink Michael Wacha. Both of these buy-low hurlers would figure to command rotation jobs, leaving the Mets with six clear candidates for the five-man unit. Whether or not that could produce a trade remains to be seen, but now appears plausible on paper.

Porcello, who’ll turn 31 later this month, is far removed from his surprising Cy Young season. There have been some lean years in between, but he has always answered the bell. Porcello has taken the ball for at least 32 starts in each of the past four campaigns and has only once failed to top 170 MLB frames in a season (2010, when he threw 162 2/3).

Any pitcher is a theoretical health risk, but Porcello’s record of durability is second to none. The Mets can safely assume they’ll get innings from their new starter … but of what quality?

Outside of a few particularly good and bad seasons, Porcello has mostly hovered around the low-4 ERA range. Through more than two thousand innings in the majors, he carries a 4.36 ERA that lines up with his lifetime peripherals: 6.7 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 47.5% groundball rate. Fielding-independent pitching metrics largely concur with the results (4.09 FIP; 4.03 xFIP; 4.09 SIERA).

The Mets would be glad to see Porcello take the ball thirty-plus times and settle right around that four-earned-per-nine mark. But will he? Other teams reportedly offered three-year arrangements in an effort to woo Porcello, so there’s obviously some belief in the game that it’s plausible. But he’s also coming off of his ugliest season as a big leaguer.

In 2019, Porcello struggled to a 5.52 ERA in 174 1/3 innings. ERA estimators weren’t much more positive (4.76 FIP; 5.15 xFIP; 4.86 SIERA). He isn’t allowing an alarming rate of home runs per flyball (13.1%), but hitters have had greater success getting the ball in the air against him. He averaged a personal-worst 38.1% grounder rate and personal-high 41.5% flyball rate in 2019.

Perhaps it’s just a matter of a few well-conceived tweaks. Porcello has lost a bit of arm speed, though he’s still within range of his typical velocity levels. Opposing batters produced bigger-than-usual levels in hard-hit rate (37.2%) and launch angle (15.5 degrees), though neither figure was wildly out of line with Porcello’s prior history. Likewise, Porcello’s swinging-strike rate of 8.0% was on the low side for his recent track record but not a signal of a drastic shift in physical tools or efficacy.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Brewers Sign Josh Lindblom

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The Brewers are hoping to strike gold on another breakout from the Korea Baseball Organization, announcing on Monday that they’ve signed right-hander Josh Lindblom to a three-year contract. The GSI client will reportedly be guaranteed $9.125MM and has incentives baked into the deal that can bring it to a total of $18MM. MLBTR predicted he’d ink a two-year, $8MM guarantee at the beginning of free agency.

“We are pleased to sign Josh to a multi-year contract and welcome him and his family to Milwaukee,” Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns said in a press release. “During his time in Korea — and most specifically over the past two seasons — Josh has been as dominant as any pitcher in the world. We believe his combination of stuff, execution and experience will allow him to have success at the Major League level.”

Brewers fans may know Lindblom best from his brief time with the division-rival Pirates in 2017, his most recent season in the majors. Lindblom, previously with the Dodgers, Phillies, Rangers and Athletics, had an unspectacular run as a major league reliever up to then. However, he truly reinvented himself as a starter in the KBO over the past two seasons.

Now 32 years old, Lindblom started in all 56 of his appearances in 2018-19 with the Doosan Bears, who were the beneficiaries of a career renaissance. Lindblom posted sub-3.00 ERAs with strikeout and walk rates hovering around 8.0 and 2.0, respectively, in both seasons, in which he combined for 363 1/3 innings. Lindblom was so effective in both seasons that he earned the Choi Dong-Won Award — the top pitching award in the KBO – in each campaign. He also took home league MVP honors in 2019.

So what changed for Lindblom? As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explained, Lindblom still doesn’t throw that hard (his fastball checks in around 91 mph), but he has excellent spin rates on his side. He also became far more reliant on his four-seamer (at the expense of his two-seamer), adopted a splitter that has turned into a significant weapon for him and did well limiting hard contact during his two-year run of dominance.

It’s anyone’s guess whether Lindblom’s success in Korea will carry over in his return to the majors, but the starter-needy Brewers are ready to take a fairly low-risk chance and plug him into their rotation. This is, of course, the second time in recent years the Brewers have signed a former unremarkable MLBer who turned into a star in Korea. They previously inked first baseman/outfielder Eric Thames to a three-year, $16MM guarantee entering 2017, and they got a good bang for their buck out of that decision.

For now, Lindblom looks like perhaps one of at least four set starters for the Brewers, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com observes. He’s currently slated to join Brandon Woodruff, while Eric Lauer and Adrian Houser look like the other leading candidates to begin 2020 in Milwaukee’s rotation. Further additions figure to be added to the fray, and the Brewers could of course deploy a nontraditional blend of pitchers given their penchant for blurring the lines between starters and relievers.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported that the two sides were closing in on a three-year deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that an agreement had been reached.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rangers Acquire Corey Kluber For Emmanuel Clase, Delino DeShields

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2:10pm: Both teams have announced the deal, which is now official. The Indians have designated infielder Mike Freeman for assignment in order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster.

11:07 am: The Rangers have acquired right-hander Corey Kluber from the Indians, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (via Twitter). The deal is agreed to, pending physicals of the players involved, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). In return, Indians will receive right-handed reliever Emmanuel Clase and outfielder Delino DeShields, Jr. (Twitter links via Rosenthal and Levi Weaver of The Athletic). Texas will assume the entirety of Kluber’s $17.5MM obligation, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter), though the Rangers will also receive $500K in cash considerations to cover half of the $1MM assignment bonus owed to Kluber.

A fractured forearm and an oblique strain combined to limit Kluber to just seven underwhelming starts in 2019, but he was one of the sport’s true aces over the preceding half-decade. From 2014-18, Kluber averaged over 200 innings per season with a 2.85 ERA and a nearly-identical 2.84 FIP. Among qualified starters, only Clayton Kershaw, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer bested that ERA, while only Chris Sale, Kershaw and Scherzer topped Kluber’s combination of strikeouts (28.5%) and walks (5.2%). Kluber was twice rewarded for his dominance with the AL Cy Young Award in 2014 and 2017.

Of course, it’s anyone’s guess whether the 33-year-old Kluber will recapture that level of dominance. Kluber’s initial injury was certainly fluky, as he was struck by a 102 MPH line drive off the bat of Miami’s Brian Anderson. Prior to the injury, though, he hadn’t quite resembled his previous self. Kluber’s strikeout rate was down to just 22.6% in 2019, while his walk rate spiked to 8.9%. His fastball velocity, per Brooks Baseball, sat at a career-low 92.43 MPH, although pitchers tend to pick up velocity as they distance themselves from spring training, a luxury Kluber was never afforded. Kluber’s velocity has trended down consistently in recent years, though, and he now sits about two ticks slower than he did at his 2014 peak.

Kluber will make $17.5MM next season, and he is under control through 2021 via an $18MM team option (or a $1MM buyout). As Rosenthal notes (via Twitter), Kluber will receive a $1MM assignment bonus once the trade is finalized.

This move continues an offseason trend for the Rangers, who have strengthened their starting rotation considerably. Kluber joins Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles (both of whom were brought in via free agency) to complement the strong duo of Lance Lynn and Mike Minor. Having missed out on their top free agent target, Anthony Rendon, the Rangers were reportedly pivoting to the trade market to address gaps on the roster.

Clase was among a handful of Rangers generating interest league-wide. The 21-year-old made his MLB debut in 2019 and turned in 23.1 innings of 2.31 ERA ball. A fastball-slider reliever, Clase averaged an astounding 99.44 MPH on his heater, topping out at 102.02 MPH. He didn’t generate as many strikeouts in his brief MLB time (22.3%) as one may expect given that velocity, but he did induce ground balls on upwards of 60% of balls in play against him. He’s also thrown a high volume of strikes the past few seasons, culminating in a 6.4% walk rate at the highest level. He comes with six seasons of team control and figures to profile as a long-term bullpen asset for manager Terry Francona.

DeShields, meanwhile, may be the more recognizable name in the return, even if he’s likely the secondary piece from Cleveland’s perspective. The 27-year-old got the lion’s share of playing time in center field for Texas last season, although longstanding offensive woes continued to plague him. Over 408 plate appearances, he slashed just .249/.325/.347 (72 wRC+). That is right in line with his career output at the dish across five seasons in Arlington.

To DeShields’ credit, he has been one of the game’s best baserunners since making his MLB debut. The former Rule V pick has also drastically improved defensively. After getting off to a shaky start in 2016, the speedster has rated as a quality center fielder over the past three seasons. Per Statcast, DeShields has combined to be worth 29 outs above average since the start of 2017. His 12 outs above average last season placed him in the 95th percentile of MLB outfielders.

DeShields comes with two additional seasons of arbitration control. He’s projected for an eminently-affordable $2.4MM this offseason, of no small import to a Cleveland organization that has bandied about its most expensive players in trade. Indeed, today’s deal was certainly motivated by some desire on the Indians’ part to clear money from their books. Cleveland now projects for just under $91MM in 2020 payroll, per Roster Resource.

It will be fascinating to see if this move serves as a precursor to further sell-offs in Cleveland. Francisco Lindor has already been bounced around in trade rumors. He would no doubt be a prize of a rival’s offseason if they were able to pry him away. On the other hand, subtracting Kluber’s salary could alleviate any pressure the Indians feel to move Lindor and his projected $16.7MM arbitration salary. Today’s move to bring in two MLB-ready pieces at least suggests Cleveland hopes to make another run at a winnable AL Central in 2020.

Mets Agree To Sign Michael Wacha

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DECEMBER 15: Anthony DiComo of MLB.com has the breakdown on the incentives in Wacha’s contract. He’ll earn $500K for making 10, 14, and 18 starts, along with $500K for each start from 20-30. Finally, Wacha can earn $1.35MM worth of award bonuses. With $8.35MM worth of incentives, Wacha’s total earning potential for 2020 comes out to $11.35MM.

DECEMBER 11, 3:23pm: There’s a deal in place pending a physical, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). It guarantees $3MM, per Sherman (via Twitter), with up to $7MM in possible incentives.

3:09pm: The Mets are “working hard to finalize” a contract with righty Michael Wacha, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). If completed, it’ll be for a one-year term; financials have yet to be reported.

If this deal is wrapped up, Wacha would presumably round out the New York starting five. He’d also become the latest client of CAA — the former outfit of Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen — to join the New York organization.

It’s interesting to see Wacha heading in on a bounceback arrangement as Zack Wheeler departs with a huge contract. It wasn’t long ago that the former was seen as a major free agent target of the future, while the latter’s career was in limbo owing to health reasons.

Now, it’s Wacha who is trying to prove he can stay healthy and restore his former effectiveness. The former first-round pick has had some peaks to go with the valleys in recent years, but hasn’t looked like the budding young staff he was in 2013-15.

Last season, Wacha turned in a 4.76 ERA with 7.4 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 over 126 2/3 innings. With balls flying out of the yard at a rate of 1.8 per nine, he was ultimately demoted to the bullpen. Wacha ended up averaging a career-low 93.4 mph with his fastball, though that’s only one tick off from his overall career average.

It’s tough to say just how much upside Wacha offers at this stage. He was able to stay on the mound for most of 2019 but hasn’t been as effective as he was before shoulder and back issues began to crop up. Statcast numbers don’t offer much in the way of encouragement; if anything, they suggest his strong ’18 output (3.20 ERA in 84 1/3 innings) was based upon some good fortune (.249 BABIP-against, .286 wOBA vs. .350 xwOBA). Still, it’s awfully tempting to dream on a powerhouse Mets rotation if Wacha and Steven Matz are able to turn in healthy and productive campaigns.

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