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Cardinals Extend Paul Goldschmidt

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1:38pm: Bob Nightengale of USA Today adds details (via Twitter) on the incentives package included in Goldschmidt’s new contract. The slugger can earn $250k for being named an All-Star, $250k for winning a Gold Glove award, and $1.5M for winning the NL MVP. As Saxon reported earlier, Goldschmidt’s yearly earnings will tally $26MM, which comprises a $22MM yearly base salary in addition to a $20MM signing bonus that will be spread evenly across the five years of the contract.

10:17am: Goldschmidt will earn $26MM per season from 2020-24, The Athletic’s Mark Saxon reports (Twitter link).

TODAY, 8:04am: The deal is done, and the Cardinals will officially make the announcement at a press conference this morning, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch reports (Twitter link).

THURSDAY: The Cardinals are closing in on an extension with first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). If he passes a physical, Goldschmidt will remain a Cardinal for five additional seasons at a price of $130MM, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter), thus setting a new contractual record for the storied St. Louis franchise.

Goldschmidt is already slated to earn $14.5MM in 2019, the final season of the extension he signed earlier in his career. With five new seasons tacked on, he’ll now be under contract through the 2024 season. The new deal will afford Goldschmidt full no-trade protection but will not include any opt-out opportunities, Rosenthal tweets.

The Cards are now set to accomplish what they set out to do when they acquired Goldschmidt earlier this winter. The club made no secret of its desire to hammer out a long-term arrangement with its new first bagger. Indeed, achieving exclusive negotiating rights likely motivated the St. Louis organization to part with starter Luke Weaver, catcher Carson Kelly, minor league infielder Andy Young and a Competitive Balance Round B selection to land Goldy in the first place.

Getting the deal done now means that both the Cardinals and Goldschmidt (along with his representatives at Excel Sports Management) need not think about alternatives next winter. It surely would have been interesting to see how the star performed on the open market. It’s hardly an optimal time for a defensively limited slugger to reach the open market. The Chris Davis deal (seven years, $161MM) is scarcely three years old, but seems a relic in retrospect. We’ve seen a steady reduction in earning expectations for such players in recent years. Still, significant money has still been there for the very best players. J.D. Martinez took down $110MM over five years despite profiling as a DH. Carlos Santana and Edwin Encarnacion each commanded $20MM annual salaries over three-year terms. And first bagger Eric Hosmer — a much younger but lighter-hitting first baseman — went for eight years and $144MM.

There’s an argument to be made that Goldschmidt could have earned more on the open market. He’d have faced little competition at the top of the first base market outside of the older Jose Abreu, though there are a few notable other players available next winter. But it’s frankly difficult to argue with the decision to sign onto this contract, particularly with another year of health and performance risk still separating Goldschmidt from free agency. The Cards obviously were quite fond of their new acquisition — and, perhaps, felt no small amount of pressure to get something done. It’s no small achievement in this climate for a first baseman to secure a $26MM AAV over a five-year term that begins in his age-32 season.

Goldschmidt, of course, is no ordinary first baseman. Comparing him to his peers at first base, in fact, isn’t quite the right scope. Over the past three years — that is, not including his personal-best 2015 campaign — Goldy has been among the dozen top position players by measure of fWAR. He’s in a dead heat with Freddie Freeman and Joey Votto in that regard. Now, he’ll join that pair of star performers in securing a large and lengthy contract extension.

While the Cardinals haven’t had much time to watch Goldschmidt up close, he really doesn’t have much of anything to prove. Somehow only an eighth-round draft pick back in 2009, Goldschmidt has been an offensive sensation ever since he reached the professional ranks. He destroyed minor-league pitching while racing to the majors, showing well in his 2011 debut. Thereafter, he emerged as one of the game’s best hitters and has rarely wavered from that standard.

All told, Goldschmidt carries a .297/.398/.532 slash (144 wRC+) through 4,708 plate appearances. That’s more or less exactly what he posted last year, when he ran up 690 plate appearances of .290/.389/.533 hitting with 33 long balls. Goldschmidt didn’t have his best showing in terms of plate discipline, but his 13.0% walk rate and 25.1% strikeout rate were hardly problematic and largely reflect his career levels. He continued to sting the ball, with a career-best 46.2% hard-contact rate (per Fangraphs), though he also made soft contact with greater frequency (16.9%) than ever before.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Astros Extend Justin Verlander

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SUNDAY: Houston has announced the extension.

SATURDAY: The Astros have reached an agreement with right-hander Justin Verlander on a two-year, $66MM extension, Mark Berman of FOX 26 Houston reports. The deal will keep Verlander, a client of ISE Baseball, in Houston through the 2021 season.

It has been a remarkable few seasons for Verlander, who’s set to complete the final season of a five-year, $140MM extension signed prior to the ’13 campaign. Lagging velocity and some health issues led to messy 2014 and 2015 seasons, but Verlander recovered admirably, finishing out his Tigers tenure in good form before being shipped to the ’Stros.

Verlander has now reached his 36th birthday, but you wouldn’t know it from the way he pitched last year. Over 214 frames, he worked to a 2.52 ERA with 12.2 K/9 against just 1.6 BB/9. And it wasn’t just the work of a crafty veteran who somehow managed to squeeze out one last good season from what was left of his stuff. Verlander averaged over 95 mph with his dominating fastball and jumped to a 14.5% swinging-strike rate — easily the highest mark of his storied career.

There’s an argument to be made that Verlander was never better than in 2018. He didn’t tally the same volume of great innings that he did in the vintage seasons of his youth, but Verlander’s insane 30.4% K%-BB% was nearly twice his career average. That level of unadulterated dominance is typically reserved for elite late-inning relievers who mostly unleash their arsenal in one-inning bursts. Statcast actually felt that Verlander was unlucky to permit opposing batters a paltry .260 wOBA. The contact they made against him was so weak that the advanced system credited those hitters with a .236 xwOBA.

Locking up Verlander – the third in a series of late-spring Astros extensions – brings at least some degree of clarity to a future rotation mix that seemed hazy at best. With both Verlander and Gerrit Cole set to hit the market after the upcoming campaign, and emerging frontliner Lance McCullers Jr. on the shelf until at least Opening Day 2020, Houston’s level of concern vis-á-vis the top end of the rotation had reached urgent heights. Collin McHugh was lassoed back from the bullpen, but none of the club’s glut of emerging arms – Cionel Perez, Framber Valdez, Josh James, Forrest Whitley, Corbin Martin, and J.B. Bukauskas among them – would likely be prepared to lead a staff in the upcoming seasons, especially one with designs on another AL crown.

The club still has more to work to do, of course (old friend Dallas Keuchel is still out there), but with just $108MM on the 2020 books even with the extensions divvied to Verlander, Alex Bregman, and Ryan Pressly, there should be plenty of room with which to maneuver. A Cole deal seems further off, and riskier still given his third-starter track record in the two seasons prior to ’18, but the club’s tech-blazed path to improvement with so many of its hurlers, centered on bolstering spin rates with pitches both fast and slow, should certainly be a mark in its favor. Houston, under Jeff Luhnow, has always been loath to part from the cream of its crop, so a high-profile trade for a top-end arm wouldn’t seem to be in the cards.

Regardless, with ace now in tow, the Astros have widened their window considerably. In addition to Cole, only George Springer, among the team’s stars, is set to hit the open market between now and when Verlander’s contract expires at the end of 2021, and the team has its floodgates set wide open in hopes that another homegrown star or two will wash ashore.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand was the first to report the two sides were “moving toward” an extension (via Twitter). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first with the proposed figures (Twitter link). Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Scooter Gennett To Spend 8-12 Weeks On Injured List

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Reds second baseman Scooter Gennett will be sidelined for the next 8-12 weeks due to a right groin strain, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports (Twitter link).  Gennett suffered the injury yesterday during the second inning of the Reds’ Spring Training game, while making an awkward slide on a fielding play.

The news is a major blow to a Reds team that had a busy offseason in preparation for a return to contention in the NL Central.  Now, Cincinnati will have to wait until mid-May at the earliest to welcome back their All-Star second baseman.

Gennett has been nothing short of outstanding since joining his hometown team prior to the 2017 season, as the infielder has hit .303/.351/.508 with 50 homers over 1135 plate appearances in a Reds uniform.  Originally seen as something of a utility infield option when he first arrived with the team, Gennett’s emergence made him into an unexpected building block for the Reds, and perhaps even a long-term answer at second base (though recent extension talks hadn’t delivered much progress).

Gennett is scheduled to hit free agency after the season, and while the 29-year-old can still produce quite a bit over three or four months of action, his hopes of a big platform year have now been dented by this lengthy stint on the IL.  He’ll have to hope for a relatively quick recovery and then no lingering after-effects from his groin strain, though on the plus side, Gennett has been a pretty durable player throughout the rest of his big league career.

The vacancy at second base will be filled by Jose Peraza, whose former shortstop role will be assumed by minor league signing Jose Iglesias.  Peraza took a big step forward at the plate last season and actually grades out better defensively as a second baseman than as a shortstop, so the Reds should be in decent shape at the keystone.  Iglesias is one of the sport’s better defensive shortstops, so he’ll bring value to the everyday lineup even if his hitting has generally been subpar.  Derek Dietrich, also in camp on a minors contract, was already expected to make Cincinnati’s roster, and Gennett’s absence should solidify Dietrich’s spot as a backup utilityman.

Nick Senzel’s status won’t be impacted by the Gennett news, Reds president of baseball operations Dick Williams told reporters (including C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic).  The top prospect has played second base in the past, though Senzel is still ticketed to begin the season at Triple-A and will be playing as a center fielder, in order to eventually help the Reds at that position.

Jason Hammel Announces Retirement

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In a surprising development, veteran right-hander Jason Hammel has told the Rangers that he is retiring after 13 Major League seasons.  Hammel had signed a minor league deal with the Rangers this winter, and was informed yesterday that he had made the team’s Opening Day roster.

Hammel’s decision doesn’t come entirely out of left field, as he recently stated that he had no interest in pitching in the minor leagues, and would hang up his spikes if he didn’t remain in the Show.  As per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (Twitter link), Hammel simply “decided he needed to go and be with his family, something you could tell was weighing on his mind this spring.”

Rangers GM Jon Daniels told The Athletic’s Levi Weaver and other media that Hammel “was very apologetic about the timing” of his decision, coming so soon after the team decided to include him on its 25-man roster.  With Hammel now out of the picture, Jeanmar Gomez (another minor league signing) will break camp with the team.

Originally a 10th-round pick for the Rays in the 2002 draft, Hammel rose from that unheralded draft position to pitch 1810 1/3 Major League innings from 2006-18, starting 298 of his 377 career games.  Never a big strikeout pitcher or a particularly hard thrower, Hammel relied on solid control and durability to become a rotation piece for six different teams over the course of his career.

That skillset resulted in just shy of $60MM in career earnings for Hammel, including a pair of multi-year free agent deals with the Cubs and Royals.  Hammel’s stint with the Cubs from 2014-16 was the productive stint of his career, as he posted a 3.59 ERA, 8.5 K/9, and a 3.62 K/9 rate over 446 innings (all of them in 78 starts) for Chicago.  Unfortunately for Hammel, a late-season elbow injury kept him from participating in the Cubs’ historic playoff run in 2016, though his 166 2/3 frames of 3.83 ERA pitching in the regular season netted him a well-earned World Series ring.

We at MLBTR congratulate Hammel on a fine career, and we wish him all the best as he embarks on his post-playing endeavors.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

White Sox Extend Eloy Jimenez

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MARCH 22: The deal is now official. The South Siders revealed all the terms. Jimenez gets a $5MM signing bonus and salaries of $1MM (2019), $1.5MM (2020), $3.5MM (2021), $6.5MM (2022), $9.5MM (2023), and $13MM (2024). There’s a $3MM buyout that applies to either of the options, which are priced at $16.5MM and $18.5MM, respectively.

MARCH 20: The White Sox have reportedly struck a historic extension with top prospect Eloy Jimenez. If he passes a physical, Jimenez stands to receive a record-shattering $43MM guarantee over six seasons, with a pair of option years that cost a cumulative $32MM. There’s also said to be a $2.5MM MVP bonus.

This contract will easily set a new bar for early-career extensions. To this point, only two players have ever agreed to pre-MLB debut extensions: Jon Singleton, who signed a $10MM deal with the Astros, and Scott Kingery, who inked a $24MM pact with the Phillies. Deals for players with less than a single season of MLB service haven’t gone much past Kingery’s earning level to this point, with Jimenez’s soon-to-be-teammate Tim Anderson promised $25MM and Paul DeJong of the Cardinals guaranteed $26MM.

Jimenez is widely regarded as one of the game’s five best prospects, but he has yet to take a single MLB plate appearance. The club recently optioned the 22-year-old back to Triple-A. While his showing in Spring Training wasn’t exactly stirring, it’s hard to say that Jimenez has anything to prove in the upper minors after a monster 2018 showing. In 456 total plate appearances at the Double-A and Triple-A levels, Jimenez turned in a .337/.384/.577 slash with 22 home runs and 32 walks to go with 69 strikeouts.

While it’s tempting to view this deal as buying out two potential future free agent seasons, that’s only true if the South Siders would have placed Jimenez on the Opening Day roster this year. Having already demoted him, that was not (and may still not be) the case. Teams that aren’t afraid to hold down top prospects for a few weeks are able to achieve nearly seven full seasons of output before a player reaches free agency.

Realistically, then, the Sox will only be adding one season of control. That might be an extremely valuable campaign, to be sure, as Jimenez will still be only 29 in 2026. The team will also pick up cost certainty over a player whose power potential gives him major arbitration earning upside. With a likely fourth arb-eligible season involved, Jimenez might have challenged for rather staggering sums. Of course, there are also plenty of ways in which he’d fall shy of his arb earning upside — an ill-timed injury, in particular — so there’s some degree of risk to the team and protection to Jimenez even if he turns out to be every bit as good as hoped.

While other aspects of the White Sox’ offseason didn’t turn out as hoped, they’ll now open the 2019 season with another player firmly tabbed as a part of the long-term core. Odds are Jimenez will be joined in the majors this year by top pitching prospect Dylan Cease. Both were acquired in the memorable mid-2017 deal that sent lefty Jose Quintana to the cross-town Cubs. The Quintana contract was one of several extensions that worked out quite well for the White Sox, enabling the team to acquire loads of top prospects when it decided to launch a rebuild. The Pale Hose are still waiting for those youngsters to establish themselves as quality MLB assets, though hope remains that some will reach their long-lauded ceilings — with Jimenez leading the way.

Dominican reporter Hector Gomez first tweeted the agreement. Dinisio Soldevila of Periodico Hoy had the primary contract terms (Twitter links), with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (in a tweet) also contributing. Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter) reported that the deal was in place pending physical.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Astros Extend Alex Bregman

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MARCH 22: The deal has now been announced.

MARCH 21: Bregman will be paid $11MM annually from 2020-22 before earning $28.5MM in both 2023 and 2024, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (via Twitter). He also has a 10-team no-trade clause for the 2023-24 seasons.

MARCH 20: The deal includes a $10MM signing bonus, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). That’s unusual for a pre-arb contract; Heyman even suggests it may be unprecedented. Bregman can also boost his salary through escalators based upon MVP award finishes, the details of which are not yet known.

MARCH 19, 9:12pm: The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome clarifies (via Twitter) that the contract is technically a five-year, $100MM extension. The new contract does not override Bregman’s 2019 salary, but it does cover his three arbitration seasons and what would have been his first two free-agent seasons.

It’s a technicality but not an insignificant one; because Bregman’s 2019 contract is a separate entity from his 2020-24 contract, the extension comes with a $20MM luxury hit (the average annual value of the deal). Had it been structured as a six-year pact overriding his current salary, the deal would’ve come with a $16.66MM luxury hit.

However, signing Bregman to a six-year deal with that $16.66MM hit would’ve pushed Houston to just about $3.5MM shy of paying the luxury tax in 2019, leaving the Astros with minimal wiggle room for in-season additions on the trade market. Instead, they’re about $19.5MM shy of the $206MM threshold right now, which should leave them plenty of room to take on salary in midseason trades.

8:55pm: The Astros have agreed to terms on a six-year, $100MM contract with star third baseman Alex Bregman, reports Mark Berman of FOX 26 Houston (via Twitter). That contract covers the current season, three arbitration years and what would’ve been the first two free-agent seasons for Bregman. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal had tweeted not long before that the two sides had been discussing an extension.

Alex Bregman | Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Bregman, 25 at the end of the month, has rapidly ascended from No. 2 overall draft pick (2015) to one of the game’s premier players. The LSU product has improved in each MLB season, topping out with his first All-Star appearance and a fifth-place finish in American League MVP voting in 2018. Last season, he posted a brilliant .286/.394/.532 batting line with 31 homers, 51 doubles, four triples and 10 steals in a season that both Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs was worth about seven wins above replacement.

The contract extension comes just weeks after Bregman voiced “disappointment” with the fact that the Astros renewed his contract for the upcoming season at $640,500. “I understand that it’s a business,” Bregman told MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart at the time, “but I feel like good business would be wanting to make a player who performed at a high level on your team happy and want to feel like he wanted to be kept and feel like they wanted him to play here forever.”

Whether Bregman was referencing a desire to sign an extension or merely felt he should’ve been compensated at the record pre-arb levels attained by Mookie Betts ($950K) and Kris Bryant ($1.05MM), the point is now moot. The nine-figure extension offer emphatically makes clear that the ’Stros view Bregman as a vital part of their future. At the same time, it also affords him the opportunity to reach the open market in advance of his age-31 campaign — enough time to perhaps lock in one more significant payday before reaching his mid-30s.

Historically speaking, Bregman’s contract is the third-largest deal ever promised to a player with between two and three years of MLB service time. Buster Posey’s eight-year, $159MM pact tops the list for that service class, although unlike Bregman, he was a Super Two player and already eligible for arbitration when agreeing to that deal. He was also coming off a 2012 season in which he was named National League MVP, and beyond that, he had a National League Rookie of the Year Award on his mantle as well.

As for non-Super-Two players with between two and three years of service, Mike Trout’s original six-year, $144MM contract still stands out as the high-water mark. Like Posey, he had a more impressive resume than Bregman through his first two-plus seasons before agreeing to that deal.

This marks the second extension for the Astros on what has been an apparently busy day for president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow and the rest of the front office. Houston agreed to a two-year, $17.5MM extension with reliever Ryan Pressly earlier tonight as well.

Bregman now joins 2017 American League MVP Jose Altuve as the only Astros locked up through the 2024 season. That pair will form the cornerstones of the Astros’ impressive nucleus for the next six years, and it’s still possible that others could be locked into longer-term pacts as well. Altuve, Bregman and Pressly are the only Astros players who are guaranteed any money beyond the 2020 season, and the team does have several important pieces up for free agency in the near future. Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Collin McHugh are all free agents at the end of the 2019 season, while George Springer will hit the open market after the 2020 campaign. Carlos Correa, meanwhile is arbitration-eligible through the 2021 season. No one should expect the Astros to lock up all of those players — even securing two would be an impressive feat — but the Bregman deal likely doesn’t put an end to the team’s extension efforts.

Rays To Extend Blake Snell

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2:00pm: Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports the yearly breakdown (Twitter link). Snell will be paid a $3MM signing bonus and earn $1MM in 2019. He’ll then be paid salaries of $7MM, $10.5MM, $12.5MM and $16MM in the subsequent four seasons. That $16MM salary in 2023 can increase by up to $2MM based on his placement in the Cy Young race.

1:50pm: The Rays have formally announced the contract as well as the terms of the deal. Snell can earn an additional $2MM  via incentives, per the team.

1:43pm: The Rays have reached an agreement on a five-year, $50MM contract with reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell, Jeff Passan of ESPN reports (on Twitter). There are no options included on the contract, which will buy out all of Snell’s arbitration seasons and what would have been his first free-agent year. Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that Snell’s deal does not include a no-trade clause. Snell is represented by Sosnick, Cobbe & Karon.

Blake Snell | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Snell, 26, will receive the largest contract ever guaranteed to a pitcher with between two and three years of service time, breaking the previous record held by Gio Gonzalez, as can be seen in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker. (Miles Mikolas could technically be considered in that category, though as a player who had established himself overseas and would’ve otherwise been eligible for free agency, his extension was under wholly different circumstances.) Despite the fact that he has less service time and was not yet eligible for arbitration, Snell rode that Cy Young Award to a guarantee that tops the sums promised to both Luis Severino (four years, $40MM) and Aaron Nola (four years, $45MM) earlier this offseason.

Because Snell was still a year from arbitration, he was still a year from cashing in on his first seven-figure payday. Even if one were to aggressively forecast what he’d make in arbitration by suggesting he’d top Dallas Keuchel’s record $7.25MM first-time arbitration salary for a pitcher, Snell likely would’ve topped out around $35-40MM between now and the end of his arbitration eligibility. He’s possibly trading as much as $20MM in that would-be first year of free agency in exchange for the up-front payday, but that’s in a best-case scenario for his performance. A more realistic forecast of his future would need to account for the downside of injury and regression/decline.

The contract for Snell comes just weeks after the left-hander took umbrage with the organization’s decision to renew his 2019 contract for $573,700 — a raise of just $15K over the preceding season (at a time when the league-minimum salary increased by $5K).

“The Rays have the right under the collective bargaining agreement to renew me at or near the league-minimum salary,” Snell told Topkin at the time. “They also have the ability to to more adequately compensate me, as other organizations have done with players who have similar achievements to mine. The Rays chose the former.” At this point, one would imagine that renewal amounts to little more than water under the bridge with a new record-setting extension locked into place.

Snell, the No. 52 overall pick by the Rays back in 2011 and a longtime top prospect, solidified himself as an MLB-caliber starter in 2017 season with 24 starts of 4.04 ERA ball. However, he thrust himself into the ranks of the game’s elite pitchers in 2018 when he overpowered opponents with a 1.89 ERA with 11.0 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 in 31 starts. Snell’s 15.1 percent swinging-strike rate was the fourth-best mark among all qualified MLB starters, trailing only Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and Carlos Carrasco while tying him with NL Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom. His 33.1 percent opponents’ chase rate on pitches out of the strike zone ranked 18th among MLB starters.

It’s the second extension of the week for the Rays, who also locked up promising young infielder/outfielder Brandon Lowe on a six-year, $24MM pact. Looking ahead, Snell joins Lowe and center fielder Kevin Kiermaier as the only players on the Rays’ roster to have a guaranteed contract beyond the 2020 season. Kiermaier’s deal will come off the books after the 2022 season, while Snell is controlled through 2023 and Lowe through 2024 (plus a pair of club options). That trio won’t combine for more than $34.2MM in any single season in which their contracts overlap, leaving even the cost-conscious Rays with a bit of flexibility.

Ichiro Suzuki Announces Retirement

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9:20am: Ichiro has now formally announced his retirement via a Mariners press release. The future Hall of Famer included the following statement:

“I have achieved so many of my dreams in baseball, both in my career in Japan and, since 2001, in Major League Baseball. I am honored to end my big league career where it started, with Seattle, and think it is fitting that my last games as a professional were played in my home country of Japan. I want to thank not only the Mariners, but the Yankees and Marlins, for the opportunity to play in MLB, and I want to thank the fans in both the U.S. and Japan for all the support they have always given me.”

5:54am: Ichiro Suzuki will announce his retirement following the completion of this morning’s game between the Mariners and Athletics in Tokyo, Jim Allen of the Kyodo News reports (Twitter link).  Ichiro has already informed the Mariners about his decision.  The 45-year-old outfielder is in today’s lineup, starting in right field in the 2653rd game of his MLB career.

The official announcement ends months of speculation that Ichiro would hang up his spikes at the conclusion of the two-game series, giving the legendary hitter the opportunity to take a final bow in his home country.  Last May, Ichiro moved from the Mariners’ active roster into a front office role, and while he didn’t play again in 2018, both sides made it clear that he intended to continue his on-field career.

With these two games, Ichiro has now appeared in parts of the last 28 seasons in both Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball, completing one of the most remarkable careers in the history of the sport.  Over 951 games with the Orix Buffaloes in Japan and then 2653 games with the Mariners, Yankees, and Marlins in North America, Ichiro recorded more professional hits than any player ever.

Heading into today’s action, Ichiro had an incredible 4367 career hits — 1278 in NPB, and 3089 in MLB, reaching the 3000-hit club in the majors despite not playing his first North American game until he was already 27 years old.

After nine years as a star in Japan, Ichiro made a heavily-anticipated jump to the majors prior to the 2001 season after the Mariners won a posting bid to acquire his services.  The transition was more than just seamless — Ichiro’s debut in the Show saw him hit .350/.381/.457 over a league-high 738 plate appearances for a 116-win Mariners team.  He became just the second player to win both the Rookie Of The Year and MVP Awards in the same year, also winning the first of three Silver Slugger Awards and the first of 10 Gold Gloves.

Ichiro’s smooth left-handed hitting stroke and quick acceleration out of the box made him a threat to reach base every time he made contact.  Perhaps the most notable of his many achievements was setting a new single-season hits record in 2004, as his 262 hits broke the 84-year-old mark formerly held by Hall-of-Famer George Sisler.

Ichiro’s defense and baserunning were perhaps just as impressive as his exploits at the plate.  He stole a league-best 56 bases in 2001, and finished his career with 509 steals, tied for 35th-most in Major League history.  As a right fielder, Ichiro unleashed a throwing arm that instantly drew comparisons to Roberto Clemente in terms of both power and accuracy.

While his skills inevitably declined with age, Ichiro did his best to stave off Father Time, playing past his 45th birthday due to a near-mythic fitness regime and nonstop preparation.  This work ethic helped make Ichiro one of the most respected players of recent times, idolized by both fans and teammates alike all over the world.

We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Ichiro on an incredible career, and wish him all the best in his post-playing days.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Angels Extend Mike Trout

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March 21: Trout will make $36MM in 2019 and 2020 before earning $35.45MM annually over the remainder of the contract, Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times reports (via Twitter).

March 20: The Angels have formally announced Trout’s extension. The contract was announced as a 12-year deal, though that term also includes the two years for which he was already under contract.

The Orange County Register’s Jeff Fletcher tweeted today that it is technically being structured as a new 12-year deal and that the Angels have discussed moving some of the money he’s owed in 2019-20 back into the 2021-30 portion of the deal. Regardless of the exact structuring, the bottom-line numbers haven’t changed; Trout will be paid a total of $426.5MM over the next dozen years, effectively making the contract a 10-year, $360MM extension on top of the $66.5MM he was already set to earn in 2019-20.

March 19: The Angels are nearing agreement on a record-setting contract with superstar outfielder Mike Trout, according to ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan. Trout will be promised $360MM in new money over a ten-year term, according to reports from Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times (on Twitter) and Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register.

Trout stands to earn $36MM in each of those ten seasons. The deal leaves in place his preexisting $33.25MM salaries for the 2019-20 seasons, which he agreed to under a previous extension that was also negotiated by agent Craig Landis.

Trout will turn 39 during the final season (2030) of his new contract. In all likelihood, he and the deal will still be with the Halos at that time. The new agreement will not include any opt-outs, per Shaikin (via Twitter), and provides Trout with full no-trade protection, Bob Nightengale of USA Today adds on Twitter.

From one perspective, it’s a record-setting contract befitting Trout’s status as a player of historic excellence. But the salary numbers pale in comparison to Trout’s own productivity on the ballfield. Since his first full season of play, in 2012, the peerless center fielder has vastly outproduced every other player in the game with a tally of 64.2 fWAR and 63.8 rWAR. Others have approached and even bettered Trout in single seasons — somehow, he has only twice been awarded the American League Most Valuable Player award — but none of his contemporaries has maintained anything approaching his unfathomably consistent level of top-end output.

Viewed in that light, there’s an argument to be made that this deal actually underpays Trout — perhaps by a significant amount. It’s important to bear in mind that he was still two years shy of free agency, which he’d have reached at 29 years of age owing to his earlier contract. Nolan Arenado, just one season away from the open market when he new contract with the Rockies, had more leverage relative to his own abilities. But it’s still notable that Arenado — an outstanding player whose best season nevertheless lags Trout’s worst — commanded a then-record $33.4MM AAV over seven new contract seasons. Trout’s deal promises to be longer and larger, but to be sure, but not by a margin that reflects the gap in these players’ established performance levels. Unsurprisingly, Trout’s new deal also easily tops the previous record for total guarantee that was recently set by Bryce Harper and the Phillies. That was a free agent deal; Harper took a longer term (13 years) to briefly reach a new high-water mark in total guarantee ($330MM). Still, in terms of new money, the gap between the contracts is only $30MM. The Harper vs. Trout prospect debate has been resolved conclusively to this point: the former is a heck of a player and the most marketable commodity in baseball; the latter has somehow already compiled numbers that warrant placement in Cooperstown.

It’s hard to overstate the immensity of Trout’s on-field output to this stage of his career. He has only once finished a full season with less than eight fWAR: the 2017 campaign, in which he was limited to 114 games due to a broken wrist and nevertheless posted 6.9 fWAR. While he’s no longer quite as dynamic in the field and on the bases as he was when he first cracked the majors — he’s merely very good or excellent in those areas — Trout’s offensive ability has morphed and risen over the years. He’s now as likely to take a walk as he is to strike out and might hit forty home runs in any given season. He has reached .300+ isolated power and .600+ slugging percentage tallies in each of the past two seasons. Frighteningly, Trout was never better with the bat in hand than he was in 2018, when he slashed an immense .312/.460/.628 — nearly twice the productivity of a league-average hitter (191 wRC+).

We can safely presume that Trout will age and decline like most players. But he still promises to be a hugely productive player for many years to come. There’s always risk in a long-term deal, but you couldn’t pick a better or more durable player to stake a bet on than Trout. All things considered, the Halos certainly seem to have secured quite a lot of promised future output for their money.

Even beyond the value the team can hope to achieve, the Angels have now locked in one of the game’s best-ever players for his entire career. The L.A./Anaheim organization has had its share of difficulties with sizable contracts and hasn’t yet produced a consistent core of talent to supplement Trout. But it also has only three more years left to pay aging slugger Albert Pujols and has steadily rebuilt its farm system over the past several years under GM Billy Eppler. It’s easy to dream on Jo Adell joining Trout and Justin Upton to form the game’s best outfield and tantalizing to envision Shohei Ohtani returning fully from Tommy John surgery to make an iconic superstar pairing. Whatever happens with the club’s other players, though, the Halos have certainty regarding the task at hand. The Angels and Trout are now bound together in pursuit of an elusive World Series title.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Brewers Have Had Recent Talks With Craig Kimbrel

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TODAY: Discussions are “pretty serious,” per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).

YESTERDAY, 11:26pm: While the two sides have indeed spoken, there’s no agreement close at the time being, per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Haudricourt adds that the team’s payroll is already “stretched” after signing Grandal and Moustakas.

8:43pm: The Brewers are in discussions with free-agent reliever Craig Kimbrel, Ken Rosenthal and Robert Murray of The Athletic report (via Twitter).

Should a deal come to fruition, the signing would seem similar to the team’s previous agreements with Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas in that both landed in Milwaukee on shorter-term deals than anticipated. A match between Kimbrel and the Brewers, at least on paper, has looked plausible the longer his market seemed to stagnate. While the bullpen isn’t necessarily a need for a team that already has Josh Hader, Corey Knebel and Jeremy Jeffress, the latter of that trio is currently battling shoulder weakness, and Kimbrel would obviously deepen any team’s ’pen by pushing out its seventh- or eighth-best relief arm.

Kimbrel, 30, reportedly entered the offseason in search of a record contract that’d promise him six years and a total dollar value in excess of $100MM. Those terms, if indeed accurate, likely scared off a number of suitors early in free agency and led to Kimbrel’s stay on the open market lasting far longer than most would’ve anticipated. Certainly, that type of contract is unattainable for him now, though it’s still possible that Kimbrel could establish some type of record payday for a reliever. Currently, Wade Davis’ $17.33MM annual rate is the highest ever for a bullpen arm, and Kimbrel could still conceivably topple that mark.

That’d be serious money for a typically low-spending Brewers club that is already projected to open the season with a franchise-record $127.5MM payroll. Owner Mark Attanasio, however, has already given president of baseball operations David Stearns the green light to guarantee Grandal an $18.25MM salary on a one-year deal with a mutual option. And, the Brewers have every incentive to increase their spending given their recent NLCS run that provided increased revenue while simultaneously raising expectations surrounding the team.

Milwaukee has already surrendered its third-highest selection in the 2019 draft for signing Grandal, who rejected the Dodgers’ $17.9MM qualifying offer after the season. The Brewers would surrender their next-highest pick in order to sign Kimbrel, who also rejected a qualifying offer. The Brewers, though, are very much in a win-now mode, and their status as a non-luxury-tax-paying recipient of revenue sharing means they face a lower penalty for signing qualified free agents than CBT payors and teams that do not benefit from revenue sharing.

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