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Royals Sign Martin Maldonado

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March 11: The Royals have announced the signing. To make room on the 40-man roster, Perez has been placed on the 60-day injured list.

March 9: The Royals are in agreement with free agent catcher Martin Maldonado on a one-year, $2.5MM contract, per the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter). Maldonado can earn up to $1.4MM in incentives. The deal is pending a physical.

This union was destined ever since the Royals lost starter Salvador Perez for the season to Tommy John surgery. The Royals were left with only Cam Gallagher and Meibrys Viloria atop their depth chart, which easily would have been the most inexperienced duo in the league. The Maldonado signing likely gives Viloria more time to season in the minors, as he had not appeared above High-A before getting 29 plate appearances with the Royals last season.

While Maldonado has a good chance of becoming a trade chip before the end of July – he’s a good one, one of the most accomplished defensive backstops in the game, and he should help buoy a young Royals staff.

As MLBTR’s own Steve Adams wrote just two days ago: “That Maldonado remains unsigned has seemed an oddity in recent weeks; while he’s unequivocally a below-average hitter, the 32-year-old is also among the game’s premier defenders at his position. As I noted about three weeks ago when Maldonado was linked to the Mariners, the 2016 Gold Glover ranks third among all active catchers in Defensive Runs Saved dating back to the 2012 season, trailing only Buster Posey and Yadier Molina — each of whom has caught at least 2000 more innings than Maldonado in that span. He’s also a perennially strong pitch framer with a career 38 percent caught-stealing rate, including a ridiculous 49 percent mark in 2018 (17-for-35).”

Considering the prevalence of time shares at the catching position these days, it was indeed surprising that it took Maldonado so long to find a home. With the Brewers, Angels and Astros, he has a career batting line of .220/.289/.350, but that shouldn’t have been much of a deterrent in an ecosystem that lacks elite offensive production from the catching spot. Playing devil’s advocate here, Maldonado’s 0.9 fWAR in 2018 places him tied for 25th among catchers last season, on par with names like Matt Wieters and Nick Hundley, both of whom had to settle for minor league deals this winter. Maldonado was rumored to have received a two-year, $12MM offer from the Astros early in the winter, but according to his former agent Scott Boras, they never received a formal offer from Houston, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter).

Interestingly, the deal comes just a few days after Maldonado switched representation, hiring Dan Lozano of the MVP Sports Group. Maldonado had spent just a few months (since August) with the Boras Corporation. Still, it appears this contract was put in place before the switch, as Boras will collect commission on the deal. Rosenthal (via Twitter) quotes Boras as saying, “The Kansas City deal was in place and finalized without us knowing Maldonado had switched agents.”

Diamondbacks Sign Adam Jones

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The Diamondbacks have officially inked a contract with veteran outfielder Adam Jones. It’ll reportedly come with a $3MM guarantee on a one-year term.

The contract also contains $2MM in incentives. He’ll receive $250K upon reaching 250 plate appearances and every fifty thereafter, maxing out with 600 trips to the plate.

Adam Jones | Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports

After 13 years with the Orioles, Jones’ first venture into the free agent market was a slow one, at least in terms of public reports.  The Mets were known to have interest in Jones’ services, while the Orioles and Indians were involved in Jones’ market to at least some minor extent, albeit on seemingly a much more limited basis.  MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) notes that Arizona had interest in Jones in a short-term contract earlier in the offseason, so it’s quite possible that other mystery teams made quiet overtures to Jones’ representatives at CAA Sports.  Still, Jones had become something of a poster child for the difficulties faced by many veteran players (even a widely-respected figure like Jones) in the much quieter free agent marketplace of the last two offseasons.

Of course, it has been a while since Jones has exhibited the form that led to five All-Star appearances in his prime.  The 33-year-old has only been roughly a league-average offensive player (103 OPS+, 101 wRC+) over the last three seasons, as Jones hit .277/.315/.440 with 70 homers over 1920 plate appearances.  Jones’ center field defense also steeply declined — since the start of the 2016 season, Jones was last among all qualified center fielders in UZR/150 (-11.3), and second-last in Defensive Runs Saved (-40).

Interestingly, Jones now moves to a team that could still deploy him in center field on a semi-regular basis.  With A.J. Pollock off to the Dodgers in free agency, the D’Backs were working out Ketel Marte as a potential center fielder, with the newly-signed Wilmer Flores available for the bulk of playing time at second base if Marte indeed shifted to the outfield.  This could yet end up being Arizona’s preferred scenario, with Marte still seeing most of the center field action, with Jones available to play center on days when Marte is at second base.  Jones could also spell left fielder David Peralta against some left-handed starters, given Peralta’s career-long struggles against southpaws.  Arizona was in need of more outfield depth, as Jarrod Dyson could potentially miss Opening Day due to an oblique injury.

Fox Sports 1 analyst Dontrelle Willis (Twitter link) reported the signing, with ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan tweeting the money.  USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link) and Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link) had incentives details.

Out Of Options 2019

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The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options. That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors. I’ve included players on multiyear deals. This list was compiled through MLBTR’s helpful sources.

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Indians

Mariners

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

MLB Announces Agreement To Experiment On Rule Changes In Independent Atlantic League

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Major League Baseball announced on Friday that it has reached an agreement with the independent Atlantic League wherein the Atlantic League will adopt a series of radical rule changes to serve as an experimentation grounds for MLB. Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper first reported in late February that a wave of changes was coming to the Atlantic League as part of the agreement, specifically highlighting several of the now-official modifications (including Trackman-assisted strike zones and the alteration on the distance between the mound and home plate). Under the agreement, MLB “will analyze the effects of these changes before deciding on potential additional modifications during the 2019 Atlantic League All-Star break and in future seasons.”

The slate of rule changes to be implemented in the Atlantic League are as follows:

  • Home plate umpire assisted in calling balls and strikes by a TrackMan radar tracking system.
  • No mound visits permitted by players or coaches other than for pitching changes or medical issues.
  • Pitchers must face a minimum of three batters, or reach the end of an inning before they exit the game, unless the pitcher becomes injured.
  • Increase the size of 1st, 2nd and 3rd base from 15 inches square to 18 inches square.
  • Require two infielders to be on each side of second base when a pitch is released (if not, the ball is dead and the umpire shall call a ball).
  • Time between innings and pitching changes reduced from 2:05 to 1:45.
  • Distance from pitching rubber to home plate extended 24 inches, in the second half of the season only; with no change to mound height or shape.

In the past, MLB has experimented with various rule changes at the minor league level, most recently implementing a pitch clock in the minors back in 2015. (That change, which gives a pitcher 20 seconds to at least come set to deliver his pitch, is currently being tested during Spring Training.) However, given the more radical nature of these changes, MLB has now sought an independent setting in order to analyze the benefits and potential pitfalls of these scenarios.

Alterations to the pitching mound, robotic/computerized calling of balls and strikes and the potential banning of aggressive defensive shifts have all been among the talking points during commissioner Rob Manfred’s ongoing pace-of-play initiatives since being named Bud Selig’s successor. While today’s announcement certainly doesn’t suggest that any of these changes are on the cusp of being introduced at the MLB level, the experiment and analysis nonetheless foreshadow what feels like an inevitable wave of changes at some point in the future. Baseball purists have persistently bristled at the continual changes that have been both implemented and suggested by Manfred. The commissioner, in turn, has repeatedly spoken about a desire to grow the game’s appeal and to not only shorten the overall length of games but also to increase the level of action within them.

Steven Wright Suspended 80 Games For PED Violation

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Red Sox right-hander Steven Wright has been suspended 80 games, without pay, after testing positive for Growth Hormone Releasing Peptide 2 (GHRP-2), the league announced Wednesday. He’ll be placed on the restricted list — thus freeing a 40-man roster spot for the Red Sox — and miss the first half of the season. Wright will also be ineligible to participate in the 2019 postseason. The Red Sox organization has issued the following statement:

The Boston Red Sox fully support Major League Baseball’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program and its efforts to eliminate performance-enhancing substances from the game. While we are disappointed by the news of this violation, we will look to provide the appropriate support to Steven at this time. Going forward, the club will not comment further on the matter.

This’ll be the second straight season in which Wright will be suspended for off-field actions, as he served a 15-game suspension under the league’s domestic abuse policy in 2018, as well. MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo tweets that Wright tested positive in the offseason and appealed the suspension, though he only learned the result of his appeal last night.

Wright agreed to a $1.375MM salary for the 2019 campaign this winter, avoiding arbitration, and will forfeit approximately half of that sum as a result of the PED infraction. As is the case in virtually every PED suspension, Wright issued a statement via the MLBPA expressing bewilderment and claiming that he’s “never intentionally ingested anything for performance-enhancing purposes.”

The loss of Wright will further thin out a Red Sox bullpen that has already lost Joe Kelly to the Dodgers via free agency (three years, $25MM) and seems quite likely to go without yet-unsigned free agent Craig Kimbrel as well. Wright, a knuckleballer, worked to a stellar 2.68 ERA with 7.0 K/9 against 4.4 BB/9 in 53 2/3 innings of relief last season, though his season was shortened not only by the aforementioned domestic violence suspension but also a pair of DL stints pertaining to inflammation in his left knee.

Wright’s suspension will nominally nudge the Red Sox a bit further from the top luxury tax line — though by nowhere near enough that it’d prompt the team to make a significant bullpen expenditure. Boston sat roughly $4.7MM south of that $246MM barrier, so Wright’s suspension will push the team closer to $5.4MM shy of the top penalty bracket. Factoring in the tax they were paying on that salary, the suspension will cut about $980K, although they’ll of course have to replace Wright in the ’pen in some capacity — likely with a league-minimum earner.

Rangers Extend Jose Leclerc

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The Rangers have struck an extension with reliever Jose Leclerc, as first reported by Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Leclerc, who is represented by Munger English Sports Management, receives a $14.75MM guarantee over a four-year term. The Rangers will have a pair of options valued at $6MM (2023) and $6.25MM (2024).

Leclerc, 25, was still one season away from reaching arbitration eligibility, so this contract will provide him with no shortage of additional financial security. The organization, in turn, will lock in cost savings and certainty for a pitcher whose prospective earnings could have risen substantially with an ongoing accumulation of saves.

The new contract covers the 2019 season along with Leclerc’s three prospective arbitration-eligible campaigns. He’ll receive a $2MM signing bonus, followed by $1MM, $2.25MM, $4MM and $4.75MM salaries. There’s a $750K buyout on the club option years, which cover Leclerc’s first two potential free-agent seasons (the hurler’s age-29 and 30 seasons).

This deal comes on the heels of a breakout 2018 campaign in which Leclerc took over the Rangers closer’s role and established himself as one of the game’s most exciting young relievers. He ultimately worked to a 1.56 ERA in 57 2/3 innings with 13.3 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9.

Leclerc’s offerings — a mid-nineties heater and splitter, primarily — have always been tough to square up. In his first two looks at the big leagues, though, Leclerc did not command them. He dished out a whopping 53 free passes in his first 60 2/3 MLB innings.

Last year, Leclerc nearly halved his walk rate (from nearly twenty percent to 11.2%) while retaining his elusiveness. MLB hitters struggled badly in all respects. Leclerc maintained an excellent 17.1% swinging-strike rate, surrendered only 3.7 hits per nine, and allowed only a single long ball on the year. He was a Statcast darling, placing among the league leaders in wOBA-against (.205), xwOBA-against (.210), exit velocity (83.7 mph), and hard-hit percentage (20.0%).

There aren’t many comparable extensions for early-career relief pitchers — in large part because teams rarely feel compelled to commit future money to such players. In fact, among contracts documented in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker, this is actually only the second-ever deal that expanded a team’s control rights over a relief pitcher with more than two years of MLB service but not enough to qualify for Super Two status. Way back in 2011, the White Sox inked a three-year deal with Sergio Santos that promised him $8.25MM and came with three option years. His option seasons were valued at $6MM, $8MM, and $8.75MM, so there was a bit more overall earning power in that pact.

A pair of deal with two exceptional southpaw hurlers are also worth noting as comps. As a Super Two reliever, Felipe Vazquez secured $22MM in promised money while giving the Pirates control over two additional campaigns at $10MM each. That contract covered a similar arb/free agent span as Leclerc’s, but Vazquez had already reached arbitration eligibility — meaning his downside was protected because he was set to receive a significant salary and had established a high starting point for his arb years.

Before that, back in 2014, Sean Doolittle and the Athletics agreed to a deal that looks like the closest comp to Leclerc’s. At the time, Doolittle was one season away from highly likely Super Two qualification. He was promised $10.5MM, which boosted up to $13.5MM when he ultimately did have enough service time to join the Super Two class. That agreement came with $6MM and $6.5MM options. Doolittle was much older than Leclerc, presented a notable health risk, and was a season further away from free agency, though he was also arguably a higher-floor pitcher from a performance standpoint. As with Leclerc’s contract, the Doolittle deal bought out all of the seasons that were already under the club’s control (five in the A’s case) and did so at a point when the player was still a full season removed from arbitration eligibility. In each case, the team’s willingness to pay up was surely due to a combination of two overriding factors: first, a fear of run-away arb salaries; second, the rights to a pair of highly affordable option years.

While Leclerc’s contract doesn’t seem to break new ground, then, it’s still a nice deal for a player who did not originally sign for big money and has only earned at the league minimum to this stage of his career. Few relievers achieve this kind of contract precisely because the earning outlook is so uncertain — especially before reaching arbitration. Leclerc could well turn into a 40-save monster who would substantially out-earn his new deal. But he’s just one injury or a creeping command problem away from missing out on save opportunities and entering arbitration with fairly meager statistical record to work with.

Grant (Twitter links), MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan (in a tweet), Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link), and Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram (via Twitter) reported the contract terms.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salvador Perez To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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A second opinion on the right elbow of Salvador Perez has confirmed the Royals’ worst fears: Perez will undergo Tommy John surgery tomorrow, the team told reporters (Twitter link via Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star). The surgery should put Perez on the shelf for the entirety of the 2019 season.

The Royals first announced that Perez had damage to the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow last Friday. The initial recommendation for Perez was Tommy John surgery, though the team first sought a second opinion from renowned surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache before scheduling the procedure.

Perez, 28, is earning $10MM in 2019 as part of a $52.5MM contract extension to which he agreed prior to the 2016 season. He’s also owed $13MM in both the 2020 and 2021 seasons as part of that long-term arrangement.

A six-time All-Star, five-time Gold Glove winner, two-time Silver Slugger winner and the MVP of the 2015 World Series, Perez has emerged as the face of the Royals’ franchise in recent seasons. Though Kansas City has embarked on a substantial rebuilding effort following its run of prominence (including consecutive World Series appearances in 2014-15), there’s never been any serious indication that the club would give thought to moving Perez.

With Perez on the shelf, the top catchers on the Royals’ depth chart at present are Cam Gallagher and Meibrys Viloria — the former of whom is a .218/.274/.333 hitter in 96 MLB plate appearances and the latter of whom has all of 29 MLB plate appearances. Viloria, in fact, jumped from Class-A Advanced to the Majors last season as a September call-up but still seems years away from legitimate MLB readiness.

Suffice it to say, it’d register as a surprise if the Royals didn’t look to address their catching situation in some fashion following the unwelcome news. Martin Maldonado is the most obvious and straightforward choice: a premier defensive backstop with nearly 2000 Major League plate appearances under his belt who (surprisingly) still remains unsigned. Maldonado was most recently connected to the Mariners, though at the time of that report, Seattle was still wary of giving him a guaranteed 40-man roster spot. Light-hitting as Maldonado may be (.220/.289/.350 in his career), it’s still jarring that a player with his defensive prowess has struggled to find a 40-man spot this winter. The Royals, it now seems, can not only provide that but could also provide a fair bit of playing time as well.

Beyond Maldonado, there’s little in terms of proven assets on the open market, though the Royals could certainly wait until later in Spring Training to see if a veteran on a minor league pact with another club opts out of his deal. Veterans such as Nick Hundley (Athletics), Rene Rivera (Giants), Stephen Vogt (Giants), Matt Wieters (Cardinals), Devin Mesoraco (Mets) and old friend Drew Butera (Phillies) are all in Major League camps as non-roster invitees — but not all will earn a roster spot with his current organization. Alternatively, the Royals could also look to the trade market or waiver wire late in camp as a means of acquiring some additional depth. Notably, the Red Sox have reportedly been exploring deals involving their trio of backstops (Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon and Blake Swihart).

2019-20 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

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We’ll have 2019 Major League Baseball about two weeks from now, perhaps with Oakland’s Mike Fiers throwing the season’s first pitch to Seattle’s Mallex Smith in Tokyo.  Though Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel, and others remain unsigned, I’m going to begin our monthly look ahead at the 2019-20 MLB free agent class.  These players are on track to become free agents after the 2019 season.

As you can see in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker, we had three notable would-be free agents come off the board in February: Nolan Arenado, Miles Mikolas, and Aaron Hicks.  I feel that Arenado and Mikolas did about as well as they would have in free agency, while it’s possible Hicks’ deal reflects some trepidation toward the backwards trend in dollars per WAR that teams have instituted the last two winters.  There’s a good chance some of the projected free agents listed here will also forgo the open market if a reasonable contract offer is presented.  As always, these players are ranked by my estimate of their 2019-20 open market earning power.

1.  Xander Bogaerts.  I didn’t begin this exercise expecting Bogaerts to top the list, but if he manages another five win season as Boston’s shortstop, his youth could result in the winter’s longest contract.  Bogaerts, a client of the Boras Corporation, won’t turn 27 until October.  He’s gone year-to-year throughout his career after signing out of Aruba for $410K in 2009.  Bogaerts has now banked over $25MM in his career.  He’s coming off his finest season yet, posting a 133 wRC+ that was second only to Manny Machado among qualified shortstops.  Bogaerts’ defense has long rated as a plus.  While I don’t expect Bogaerts to approach the $300MM contract Machado received, I do think he’ll join the $200MM club with a strong 2019 season.

2.  Chris Sale.  Bogaerts’ teammate Chris Sale has placed top six in the AL Cy Young voting for the last seven years.  The lefty joined the Red Sox in a December 2016 blockbuster trade with the White Sox.  Sale’s dominance has continued in Boston, though he was limited to 158 regular season innings in 2018 due to two DL stints for shoulder inflammation.  Sale’s earning power in free agency will depend on his health this season.  Six years ago, Sale signed a contract extension with the White Sox that has provided tremendous surplus value to both of his clubs.  While it had been standard practice for top free agent starters to be paid through age 36 – see Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, David Price, and Yu Darvish (and Zack Greinke, who was paid through 37), the old way of doing things in free agency may no longer apply.  So Sale, 30 this month, will likely seek a six-year contract, though he could have trouble getting there unless one team gets irrational or he accepts a reduced average annual value to max out the guarantee.  In the best case, Sale could inch his way past Greinke’s six-year, $206.5MM deal, since Sale will be more than 17 months younger than Greinke was when he reached his historic pact.

3.  Gerrit Cole.  Cole, another Boras client, was drafted by the Yankees out of high school in the first round in 2008.  Cole’s signability changed after the draft, and his family requested that the Yankees not even make an offer.  After three years at UCLA, Cole was drafted first overall by the Pirates.  He was generally solid for the Pirates, including one great season in 2015, before they traded him to the Astros in January 2018.  Cole posted the best season of his career in his first season as an Astro.  Including his record draft bonus, Cole has earned over $33MM in his MLB career on the year-to-year plan.  With another comparable campaign, he’ll be fishing for the seven-year deal signed by Price, Scherzer, and Stephen Strasburg.  This would only take Cole through his age 35 season – a reasonable length even in this day and age.  Price’s seven-year, $217MM deal will be four years old when Cole reaches free agency.  My guess is that Cole will fall short of that level but will still sign one of the five largest pitching contracts in baseball history.

4.  Anthony Rendon.  The Nationals let Harper defect to the Phillies on a record $330MM contract, but that might pave the way for a deal with yet another Boras client, Rendon.  Rendon has quietly amassed 13 WAR over the last two seasons, sixth in all of baseball for position players.  The Nationals’ third baseman combines stellar defense with a 140 wRC+ bat, and the result is that he’s every bit as valuable as Harper or Machado right now.  Rendon turns 29 in June, and he’s amassed about $47MM already in his MLB career.  It’s been rare lately that any top position player gets paid past age 35, as Machado and Eric Hosmer did, and many such as Nolan Arenado, Jose Altuve, J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton, and Yoenis Cespedes were only paid through 34.  We’ll put Harper aside, as only drastically reducing his average annual value allowed for him to be paid through age 38.  This is my way of saying I think Rendon is looking at a six-year deal in the best case.  Back in January, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote that Rendon was seeking a contract comparable to Altuve, in his extension talks with the Nationals.  That deal was essentially $151MM over five years, though things have gotten worse for free agents in the year since then.  Also since then was Arenado’s seven-year, $234MM extension with the Rockies, notable mainly for its $33.4MM AAV.  Rendon would certainly be within his rights to seek $30-33MM per year in his ongoing extension talks with the Nationals, which may continue into the season.

5.  Paul Goldschmidt.  Goldschmidt starred for the Diamondbacks for eight years until last December’s trade to St. Louis.  Goldy inked what became a club-friendly six-year contract back in 2013.  So on the one hand, the slugging first baseman has banked $45MM in his MLB career.  On the other hand, he’ll turn 32 in advance of his next contract.  These days, that probably caps him at a four-year deal unless he takes a light AAV.  The Cardinals clearly would like to make Goldschmidt, a client of Excel Sports Management, more than a rental.

6.  Zack Wheeler.  Wheeler, 29 in May, posted the best season of his career in 2018.  The righty was drafted sixth overall out of high school by the Giants in 2009 and was traded to the Mets for Carlos Beltran in 2011.  He made his MLB debut in 2013 and did solid work before going down for March 2015 Tommy John surgery.  Wheeler ended up going two and a half years between MLB starts, nearly getting traded to Milwaukee in the interim.  That Wheeler failed to return to the Mets in 2016 served as a reminder that Tommy John recovery is not always seamless.  Wheeler’s 2017 season was abbreviated due to a stress fracture in his arm, and he actually began the 2018 season in the minors.  Wheeler, one of the hardest-throwing starting pitchers in the game, just kept getting better in the 2018 season.  He finished with a 2.06 ERA in his final 15 starts.  An encore performance could make Wheeler a sleeper Cy Young candidate, but it’s all about stringing together a second consecutive healthy season for the first time in his career.  His ceiling would likely be a five-year deal taking him through age 34, the age through which Miles Mikolas, Jordan Zimmermann, Jake Arrieta, and Patrick Corbin were signed.  Both Wheeler and Chris Sale are represented by Jet Sports Management.

7.  J.D. Martinez.  Martinez, 32 in August, has been the second-best hitter in baseball over the last two seasons by measure of wRC+.  Though he’s able to play the outfield, he’s best-served as a designated hitter.  Martinez signed a five-year, $110MM deal with the Red Sox in late February last year, but the Boras client has the chance to opt out of the 2019 or 2020 seasons.  Given the way Martinez has been hitting, it stands to reason that even in this free agent climate, he will stand a good chance at topping the three years and $62.5MM he’ll have remaining on his contract after 2019.  Since he’d probably only be looking at a four-year deal this time around, it’s possible the Red Sox could simply tack on one more year to his current deal.

8.  Didi Gregorius.  Gregorius, 29, was signed by the Reds out of Curacao for $50K back in 2007.  A pair of three-team trades eventually led him to the Yankees’ shortstop job in 2015, with the near-impossible task of succeeding Derek Jeter.  Gregorius’ bat steadily improved over his four seasons with the Yankees.  Combined with strong defense, he’s totaled 8.7 WAR over the past two seasons – on par with Machado and Bogaerts.  However, Gregorius went down for Tommy John surgery in October.  He could return anywhere from June to August, complicating his free agency picture.  Both Gregorius and the Yankees seem open to an extension, and the club did just prevent Aaron Hicks from exploring free agency by giving him a seven-year, $70MM deal.  Like Goldschmidt, Gregorius is represented by Excel Sports Management.

9.  Justin Verlander.  Verlander, 36, finished second in the AL Cy Young voting last year, in a dominant season that was every bit as good as his Cy/MVP 2011 campaign for the Tigers.  He’s a likely Hall of Famer and is one of the game’s best starting pitchers currently.  When it comes to the topic of Verlander’s free agency, it’s difficult to ignore his age.  I have to think it caps him at a three-year deal, albeit with a premium AAV in the $30MM range.  The Astros have difficult decisions on the horizon regarding their pair of aces.  Verlander is represented by ISE Baseball.

10.  Madison Bumgarner.  Like Verlander, Bumgarner was an ace for an extended period of time.  But with the Giants’ lefty, it remains to be seen what his second act will look like.  An April 2017 dirt bike accident caused injuries to Bumgarner’s ribs and shoulder, limiting him to 17 starts that year.  Then in March of last year, the pitcher’s left hand was fractured during a Spring Training game, delaying his season debut until June.  Upon his return, he wasn’t quite the Bumgarner of old, with his strikeout and walk rates going in the wrong direction.  Still, Bumgarner doesn’t turn 30 until August, and by then we should know whether his 2018 season was a blip on the radar or the start of a trend.  His contract, which will be negotiated by The Legacy Agency, will depend on that question.

Honorable mentions: Marcell Ozuna, Yasiel Puig, Rick Porcello, Nick Castellanos, Josh Donaldson, Yasmani Grandal, Khris Davis, Scooter Gennett

Note: I’m currently operating under the assumption that club options for Corey Kluber, Anthony Rizzo, Jose Quintana, Chris Archer, Starling Marte, and Matt Carpenter will be exercised after the season, and that Stephen Strasburg and Yu Darvish will not opt out of their contracts.

Angels Have Considered Offering 10 Years, $350MM To Mike Trout

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With Mike Trout down to his penultimate season of team control, the Angels have recently considered offering the center fielder a record-breaking contract – a $350MM extension over 10 years – though it’s unclear if they’ve actually proposed it, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required). Per Rosenthal, the accord would run from 2021-30, Trout’s age-29 to 38 seasons, meaning the future Hall of Famer would finish out the remaining two years and $66.5MM on his current contract before the extension would take effect.

A $350MM guarantee would be the highest in the history of baseball, quickly unseating the $330MM pact Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper received this week. It would also set a new high-water mark for average annual value at $35MM, defeating Diamondbacks right-hander Zack Greinke’s $34.4MM per year. Still, as Rosenthal rightly observes, neither number appears adequate for Trout – a seven-time All-Star and two-time American League MVP who, at age 27, is already one of the greatest players in the history of the game.  Since his first full season in 2012, Trout has posted a ridiculous 64.0 fWAR, just over 27 wins more than second-place man Josh Donaldson, while easily leading the majors in wRC+ (174, 17 percent better than runner-up Joey Votto) and slashing .310/.420/.579 with 235 home runs and 185 stolen bases across 4,538 plate appearances.

Just as Trout has lapped his competition on the diamond, he’s on track to do the same on his forthcoming deal – whether he signs an extension in the next two years or reaches free agency after 2020. Harper, the Padres’ Manny Machado (10 years, $300MM) and the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado (eight years, $260MM) have each signed enormous contracts in recent weeks, but as superb as they’ve been, their careers pale in comparison to Trout’s.

Since he first graced the majors in 2011, Trout has produced nearly $500MM in on-field value, according to FanGraphs. Trout has a case to aim for that figure (or $400MM-plus at minimum) on his next contract, but it doesn’t seem he’s in any rush to determine his long-term future just yet, having already achieved financial security when he landed a $144.5MM extension back in March 2014. When asked Friday if he’d be open to discussing a second extension with the Angels this spring, Trout didn’t slam the door shut, but he did suggest he’s more worried about readying himself for the regular season.

If Trout holds off on an extension, the Angels’ performance as a team this season could impact whether he’ll be open to discussions next winter. Trout “desperately” wants to win and has done everything in his power to carry the Angels to glory, but they’ve been startlingly inept despite his presence. Through the first seven full campaigns of Trout’s career, the Angels have earned just one playoff berth and haven’t even won a single postseason game. They’re now mired in a four-year playoff drought and haven’t finished above .500 since 2015.

Blue Jays To Sign Clay Buchholz

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Mar. 2: Sportsnet Canada’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports that Buchholz’s deal will be of the MLB variety when complete.

Feb. 28: MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Buchholz deal, if finalized, would pay him “about” $3MM and contain another $3MM worth of incentives. Notably, the agreement is still pending a physical.

Feb. 28: The Blue Jays are set to sign right-hander Clay Buchholz, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (via Twitter). The ISE Baseball client will be the second pickup of the past couple hours for Toronto, as the Jays quite recently agreed to terms with righty Bud Norris on a minor league pact as well.

Clay Buchholz | Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Buchholz, 34, opened the 2018 season with the Royals’ Triple-A affiliate, and Kansas City’s decision to cut him loose on May 1 proved to be a substantial misstep. The longtime Red Sox hurler caught on with the Diamondbacks, where he was a familiar face for GM Mike Hazen and several Arizona staffers who cut their teeth in the Boston organization. The Royals’ loss was the D-backs’ gain, as Buchholz turned in a masterful 2.01 ERA with 7.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9 and a 42.6 percent grounder rate in 98 1/3 innings out of the Arizona rotation.

To be fair, Buchholz benefited from an unsustainable 86.6 percent strand rate and also had good fortune on balls in play (.255 BABIP), but virtually any metric pegged him as a resurgent, MLB-caliber rotation piece in his time with the Snakes (3.47 FIP, 4.01 xFIP, 4.08 SIERA). The veteran hurler looked to be well on his way to positioning himself as a solid candidate for a big league deal this winter, but as has happened to Buchholz on so many occasions in the past, his arm didn’t hold up through season’s end. The Diamondbacks announced in mid-September that a flexor mass strain in Buchholz’s right arm had preemptively ended his season.

Following that injury, it was a quiet offseason for Buchholz. Though he said at the time of the injury that he expected to be ready to pitch in Spring Training, there’s been nary a word on the status of his recovery from that injury. Presumably, the Jays will have an update on Buchholz’s health if and when the reported agreement between the two sides is formally announced by the team. At this juncture of the offseason, a minor league pact seems likely, though one could certainly argue that Buchholz’s 2018 performance merits a guaranteed spot on the 40-man roster.

Buchholz will give the Jays some rotation depth, adding to a group that already features Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Ryan Borucki, Matt Shoemaker and Clayton Richard. It’s not clear right now whose spot Buchholz would be overtaking were he to crack the Opening Day rotation, though Sanchez and Stroman are locks to occupy spots, health permitting, and Shoemaker seems likely to do so as well.

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