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Newsstand

Lance Lynn Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

By Steve Adams | November 10, 2015 at 3:30pm CDT

Cardinals right-hander Lance Lynn will miss the 2016 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery today, the team announced today.

Lynn’s injury is a significant blow to the Cardinals’ pitching staff, though the team does have some depth to get around the loss of its No. 2 starter. Adam Wainwright is expected to be healthy again for the duration of the 2016 campaign, and he’ll be joined in the rotation by Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez and Jaime Garcia, whose $11.5MM club option was recently exercised. Other options in the rotation include Tyler Lyons and Marco Gonzales, though Gonzales dealt with shoulder injuries in 2015, as did the impressive but inexperienced Martinez. Between the unexpected loss of Lynn, the potential departure of John Lackey via free agency, and the 50-game suspension for top prospect Alex Reyes, it seems reasonable to expect the Cardinals to enter the both the free-agent and trade markets for rotation upgrades.

General manager John Mozeliak acknowledged today after the announcement that the injury to Lynn alters the Cardinals’ course of action this winter (Twitter link via the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold). While the team hasn’t previously dabbled in lucrative starting pitching contracts for free agents, that could change this winter, Goold notes. It’s obviously extremely early to speculate, but one would think the injury to Lynn considerably enhances the Cardinals’ pre-existing interest in a reunion with Lackey.

The top of the free agent market, of course, consists of David Price and Zack Greinke, while Jordan Zimmermann and Johnny Cueto occupy the next tier. If there’s such a thing as an opportune time to lose one of your best starters, the Cardinals have found it, as this year’s free-agent market features virtually unprecedented starting pitching depth. Other options for the Redbirds would include Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake, Wei-Yin Chen, Ian Kennedy, Yovani Gallardo, Hisashi Iwakuma, Doug Fister, Mark Buehrle and more.

The Cardinals have the lowest first-round pick, No. 30 overall, by virtue of owning the Majors’ best record in 2015, and they could potentially gain two compensatory picks if Lackey and Jason Heyward sign elsewhere. I’d imagine that would make the team less wary about parting with its first-round pick to bolster the rotation.

Over the past three seasons, the 28-year-old Lynn has quietly solidified himself as one of the more valuable starting pitchers in the National League. The former No. 39 overall pick has tallied 580 1/3 innings of 3.25 ERA ball in that time, averaging 8.5 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 with a 43.9 percent ground-ball rate. Fangraphs rates him 20th among starting pitchers in wins above replacement in that time.

The Cardinals considered Lynn reliable enough to lock in his three arbitration seasons last winter with a three-year, $22MM contract. A healthy Lynn, of course, easily justifies that type of financial commitment, and he did so in 2015. He’ll be penciled in for a $7.5MM salary next season and $7.5MM the following year as well before hitting the open market heading into his age-31 season.

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Newsstand St. Louis Cardinals Lance Lynn

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Tommy Hanson Passes Away At 29

By Jeff Todd | November 9, 2015 at 10:33pm CDT

After earlier reports indicated that former big league pitcher Tommy Hanson was fighting for his life in an Atlanta-area hospital, it emerged tonight that Hanson has passed away at just 29 years of age.

Heartfelt wishes have streamed in from around the game as friends, fans, and former teammates and opponents have learned of the unthinkable news. MLBTR joins them in extending its sincere condolences to Hanson’s loved ones.

The big righty lost his life in the same city where he had his greatest successes as a baseball player. He broke into the league with the Braves at just 22 years of age after streaking through the minors as a heralded young talent.

Hanson’s life meant far more than the memories he created on the ballfield, of course, but that doesn’t mean his pitching feats aren’t also worth celebrating. A towering presence on the mound, Hanson quickly established himself as one of the brightest young hurlers in the majors. He finished third in the 2009 National League Rookie of the Year vote and followed that up with 200+ frames of 3.33 ERA ball in 2010.

Despite that early-career excellence, Hanson’s career faded after he experienced shoulder trouble in 2011. Never reliant on an upper-nineties fastball, he nevertheless struggled to adapt as he lost velocity. Hanson ultimately played with the Braves for four seasons in total, the last of those coming in 2012.

Hanson returned to his native California that winter after being traded to the Angels, seemingly receiving a fresh start. But things did not turn out as hoped, as Hanson dealt with the tragic death of his younger brother and was unable to re-discover his form on he mound. While that time with the Halos represents his last big league action, Hanson kept trying to work his way back, spending time with the Rangers, White Sox, and (most recently) Giants organizations over the last several years.

Not much is known at present about the root issue that led to Hanson’s untimely death, with reports indicating only that he was in a coma after experiencing “catastrophic organ failure.” But it matters little. At base, it is simply sad beyond words for any person to pass on at such a young age.

Zach Klein of WSB-TV Atlanta reported the news as it emerged at his Twitter timeline. 

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Newsstand Tommy Hanson

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Albert Pujols Undergoes Foot Surgery

By Jeff Todd | November 9, 2015 at 5:03pm CDT

Angels first baseman Albert Pujols had surgery last week to “repair the planter plate in his right foot,” per a team announcement. He’s expected to return to full baseball activities in four-and-a-half months, according to the release.

That timeline suggests that Pujols will miss some time early in the season. With the Halos’ season set to kick off on April 5th, Pujols would not have much time to ramp up in preparation for regular duties. And he’ll obviously be out for most or all of the Cactus League action.

Pujols had struggled with a right toe issue late in the year, sticking to a DH role down the stretch. The Hall-of-Fame-bound slugger, 35, ended the season with a .244/.307/.480 batting line with 40 home runs. He initially tried to rest the foot after the season, new GM Billy Eppler tells Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register, but with insufficient improvement elected to undergo the procedure.

While the Halos obviously will hope to get  Pujols back as soon as possible, the team will also surely be cautious. After all, the veteran is still owed $165MM over six seasons. His long-term health will certainly have a major bearing on how much value he can provide on the back end of his huge free agent deal.

The Angels do not expect to adjust their offseason approach in light of the news, Eppler added in his comments. The club views C.J. Cron as a viable option at first, and he’ll presumably fill in while Pujols works back into the lineup and, eventually, duties in the infield.

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Los Angeles Angels Newsstand Albert Pujols

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Cardinals Prospect Alex Reyes Receives 50-Game Suspension

By Jeff Todd | November 9, 2015 at 4:37pm CDT

Top Cardinals prospect Alex Reyes has been given a 50-game suspension after testing positive for marijuana, according to a team release (h/t to MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez, via Twitter). Reyes, who had been pitching in the Arizona Fall League, expressed regret at his own “inappropriate behavior.”

Reyes, a 6’3 righty, has streaked up prospect boards and now rates as a consensus top-20 youngster league-wide. His AFL stint is now over, but because he was a member of that league he’ll be able to accumulate some time served in the offseason.

From a developmental perspective, the suspension is not likely to cause much of an interruption. The 21-year-old had ascended to Double-A last year, but likely was set to spend more time in the minors both to finish his polishing and to build up innings on his arm (which, presumably, is why he was working in the AFL). And whatever one thinks about marijuana use, or the merits of the league testing/suspending players for its use, the drug is obviously less harmful and concerning than other banned substances.

Still, the suspension is obviously not preferable for Reyes or the St. Louis organization. He has shown enough pure stuff — with a big fastball and plus curve — that he could conceivably factor into the club’s plans this year (more likely at the end than the start). With a need to refine his third pitch (a changeup) and hone his command, per MLB.com, the lost opportunity to play early in the season could have an impact on his timeline.

Suspensions of minor leaguers relating to marijuana are not a new phenomenon, but Reyes’s profile — along with the increasingly widespread legalization of the drug — could bring more attention to the issue. As Nathaniel Grow of Fangraphs has explained in breaking down the league’s treatment of the substance, only minor league players are subject to year-round random drug testing and harsh enforcement of the prohibition against marijuana use. (Reyes is not yet on the Cards’ 40-man roster.) According to that account, Reyes would only have been hit with this ban if it were his second positive test, as a first-time offender is only required to participate in a treatment program.

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Newsstand St. Louis Cardinals Transactions Alex Reyes

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Michael Brantley Out Five To Six Months Following Shoulder Surgery

By Steve Adams | November 9, 2015 at 12:50pm CDT

12:50pm: Indians head athletic trainer James Quinlan told reporters, including Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer (links to Twitter) that Brantley won’t begin swinging a bat for four months. The five-month timeline refers to Brantley getting into rehab games, Hoynes adds, meaning it’s more likely to be six before Brantley can play in a Major League contest.

Bastian adds, also via Twitter, that Brantley’s injury was diagnosed as a small tear in the labrum of his right shoulder.

12:15pm: Indians outfielder Michael Brantley underwent surgery to repair a right shoulder injury today, the team announced (Twitter link). He’ll be ready for game activity in five to six months, according to the club.

Brantley appeared to suffer the injury while coming up just short of robbing Twins center fielder Aaron Hicks of a triple on Sept. 22 (video link). Brantley would take his next plate appearance but came out of the game the following inning and would go on to start just two more games over the remainder of the season. As MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian tweets, Brantley and the club both thought he could avoid surgery following the season, but the discomfort in his shoulder lingered two weeks into his rehabilitation program, prompting the surgical procedure.

The 28-year-old Brantley has broken out as one of the game’s best all-around players over the past two seasons, hitting a combined .319/.382/.494 with 90 doubles and 35 homers across a pair of excellent seasons. Among qualified hitters, only Victor Marintez has a lower strikeout rate than Brantley’s 8.4 percent since the beginning of Opening Day 2014, and no player has a higher contact rate than Brantley’s 91.9 percent in that time.

Clearly, the five- to six-month timeline is an unfortunate one for the Indians, as it means Brantley will be sidelined for all of Spring Training and likely for the early portion of the regular season as well. Losing your best player for the beginning of the regular season isn’t the way that any club wants to begin an offseason, especially not a team like the Indians, which fancies itself a possible contender in 2016 due to its strong core of controllable pitching.

The Indians were already expected to pursue outfield upgrades on the trade and free-agent markets this winter, and the loss of Brantley, even for a potentially short period of time, only figures to increase the club’s urgency to add depth in the outfield. While outfield targets like Alex Gordon, Dexter Fowler and Colby Rasmus could prove to be too costly for Cleveland’s tastes (both in terms of dollars and draft-pick forfeiture), second-tier names like Gerardo Parra, Alejandro De Aza and Nori Aoki make sense as players that can fill the temporary Brantley void and also handle other outfield positions if necessary.

Brantley is entering the third season of a four-year, $25MM contract. He’ll earn $6.5MM next season, $7.5MM in 2017 and is under control via an $11MM club option for the 2018 season as well.

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Cleveland Guardians Newsstand Michael Brantley

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Jose Reyes Arrested For Alleged Domestic Abuse

By Jeff Todd | November 9, 2015 at 8:03am CDT

TUESDAY, 8:03am: Major League Baseball has issued its own statement, saying that the commissioner’s office “already has begun its investigation into the facts and circumstances” of Reyes’s arrest. The league said that its new policy on domestic violence shows that it “understands the seriousness of the issues surrounding domestic violence,” adding that the policy “explicitly recognizes the harm resulting from such acts.”

12:21am: The Rockies have issued a statement on the arrest, saying: “We were extremely disappointed and concerned to learn of the allegations involving Jose Reyes. We continue to gather information and will address this matter appropriately, in accordance with Major League Baseball’s Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy.”

MONDAY, 9:36pm: Rockies shortstop Jose Reyes was arrested on Halloween night in Hawaii for allegedly assaulting his wife, Chelsea Davis of Hawaii News Now reports. Reyes has been released on bail, according to the report, which does not make clear whether he’ll face charges.

The report is obviously deeply troubling, though as always it is necessary to await facts before issuing judgment. It goes without saying that domestic violence of any kind is unacceptable, and that matter is of far more importance than any baseball-related considerations.

MLB and the Major League Baseball Player’s Association recently agreed to a stringent new protocol for dealing with and (if appropriate) punishing alleged perpetrators of domestic violence. Under that policy, commissioner Rob Manfred will have the authority to issue discipline of whatever type he believes “appropriate in light of the severity of the conduct,” though of course an arbitration panel is available for appeal. There are also provisions dealing with administrative leave pending an investigation, though it’s not clear that they would come into the play during the offseason. Importantly, Reyes could theoretically face a suspension regardless of whether or not he is ultimately charged or convicted of a crime.

Further details of the alleged assault are available in a report from Davis. According to that report, Reyes’s wife accused him of grabbing her by the throat and shoving her into a sliding glass door in their hotel room. While she was taken to a local hospital for treatment of injuries, Reyes was placed under arrest for “abuse of a family or household member.”

It seems likely that Manfred and the league will make every effort at a thorough and timely investigation. The league and player’s associated pushed through agreement on the above-noted policy after watching as the National Football League struggled to deal with several high-profile domestic abuse cases.

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Colorado Rockies Newsstand Jose Reyes

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2015-16 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions

By Tim Dierkes | November 9, 2015 at 12:14am CDT

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Just in time for the tenth anniversary of MLB Trade Rumors, our Top 50 Free Agents list has arrived!  The entire list of available free agents can be found here, and you can filter by position, signing team, and qualifying offer status with our free agent tracker here.

New to MLBTR?  You can follow us on Twitter, download our free app for iOS and Android, listen to our podcast, and sign up for our free weekly newsletter.

This is the fifth year for our free agent prediction contest, which allows you to test your prognostication abilities against those of the MLBTR writing team as well as other readers.  Last year 3,469 people entered, with Carson Pennington taking home the batting title with 15 correct picks out of 49, a .306 average.  Mark Polishuk topped MLBTR writers with 14 correct.  The contest is back for 2016 and is open now!  You can enter your picks anytime between now and November 13th at 11:59pm central time, and you’re free to make changes up until that point.  A Facebook account is required to participate in the contest.  Once all top 50 players have signed, the winners will receive cash prizes.

This year, I asked MLBTR writers Steve Adams, Jeff Todd, Mark Polishuk, Charlie Wilmoth, Zach Links, and Brad Johnson to send me their picks so I could compare to my own.  Discussions with the MLBTR writing team, especially Steve and Jeff, helped inform the predictions found below.  Each player’s team was picked in a vacuum, so we’re not predicting the Nationals will sign both Justin Upton and Gerardo Parra.  Additionally, we’ve added our contract predictions to the mix.  We vetted these as much as possible, but with 50 predictions and a volatile free agent marketplace, we know we’ll be off on some.  Still, the contract predictions give a more clear criteria, as players are ranked by earning power.  Without further ado, we’re proud to present MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents!

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 1.  David Price – Cubs.  Seven years, $217MM.  Price is a true number one starter in his prime.  The 30-year-old southpaw posted a 2.45 ERA in 220 1/3 innings for the Tigers and Blue Jays, and is ineligible for a qualifying offer due to a July trade.  Price is a five-time All-Star and the 2012 Cy Young winner, and he’s got a shot at the award again this year.  Even in a free agent market flush with unprecedented starting pitching, Price is the cream of the crop and should command a record deal.  Clayton Kershaw’s seven-year, $215MM extension signed in January 2014 should be his target.  The Cubs are the early favorite, as they are known to be seeking an impact starting pitcher and Joe Maddon managed Price with the Rays.  The Blue Jays will attempt to bring Price back, while the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Giants figure to be among those in the mix.

2.  Jason Heyward – Yankees.  Ten years, $200MM.  Since his 2010 rookie season, Heyward has quietly been one of the game’s best outfielders.  He’s an excellent defender and baserunner with a solid on-base percentage and some pop.  Heyward hit a career-high 27 home runs in 2012, but only 38 in the three seasons since.  He doesn’t have the typical power output of a $200MM player, but his all-around game makes him a sabermetric darling with six wins above replacement this year.  A very long term and an opt-out clause are on the table for Heyward because he broke into the Majors at age 20, and is now just 26.  The Cardinals will try to convince Heyward to stay, but teams like the Angels, Yankees, White Sox, and Astros could make a play.  For more on Heyward, click here.

3.  Zack Greinke – Dodgers.  Six years, $156MM.  Greinke is a contender for the NL Cy Young Award after leading all of baseball with a 1.66 ERA in 222 2/3 innings.  He’s been an elite starting pitcher since winning the AL award with the 2009 Royals, and has already earned over $100MM in his career.  Greinke’s 2012 free agent deal with the Dodgers included a clause allowing him to opt out of the $71MM remaining over the final three seasons, and he’s done just that in search of a guarantee of more than twice that much.  Since Greinke recently turned 32, a six-year deal may be out of some teams’ comfort zone.  It’s possible he’ll get into the $150MM range even on a five-year term, however.  His market should be similar to that of Price, but the 22 month age difference will keep Greinke from matching his contract.

4.  Justin Upton – Nationals.  Seven years, $147MM.  Drafted first overall by the Diamondbacks a decade ago, Upton hasn’t quite reached the lofty expectations placed on him.  He’s still a solid source of right-handed power, with 82 home runs over the last three seasons.  Upton turned 28 in August, so there’s room to grow.  Even if he doesn’t, he could still provide decent value at a contract similar to the one Jacoby Ellsbury signed two years ago with the Yankees.  Nationals GM Mike Rizzo was Arizona’s scouting director when they drafted Upton, and there could be a fit if the team is willing to move Bryce Harper to center field.  The Yankees, Angels, Rangers, and Giants are other potential matches.  Click here for our full profile on Upton.

5.  Chris Davis – Cardinals.  Six years, $144MM.  Davis is baseball’s most prolific home run hitter, leading the Majors in 2013 and 2015.  He’s a middle of the order monster and he doesn’t turn 30 until March.  Agent Scott Boras will attempt to downplay Davis’ high strikeout rate and his 2014 suspension for use of Adderall.  Boras will push for seven years for Davis, a term he achieved with Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo previously.  First base is not an in-demand position this winter, so finding a match for Davis is difficult.  He would be a great addition to the Cardinals’ lineup if they lose Heyward.  The Orioles will stay involved, while the Astros, Mariners, and Padres make some degree of sense.  Click here for more on Davis.

6.  Yoenis Cespedes – Angels.  Six years, $140MM.  Cespedes, 30, vaulted up the free agent ranks after bashing 25 home runs in the season’s final three months.  Signed by the Athletics for $36MM as a free agent out of Cuba, Cespedes’ choice to limit that contract to four years has paid off.  He’s ineligible for a qualifying offer, and seems unlikely to return to the Mets.  The Angels are one possibility for Cespedes, though they would prefer a left-handed masher.  The Astros, Giants, Mariners, White Sox, Rangers, and Yankees could get in the mix, but this one’s tough to predict.

7.  Jordan Zimmermann – Blue Jays.  Six years, $126MM.  Zimmermann could become the first Tommy John survivor to score a $100MM contract.  He has a 3.13 ERA over 810 1/3 innings over the last four seasons, but slipped a bit in 2015 and doesn’t boast the strikeout rate of other top arms.  Since Zimmermann won’t turn 30 until May, a six-year term is attainable.  The Blue Jays need arms, and executive Dana Brown was the Nationals’ scouting director when Zimmermann was drafted in ’07.  The Cubs, Giants, Diamondbacks, and Tigers are other good matches.  Click here for more on Zimmermann.

8.  Johnny Cueto – Red Sox.  Five years, $115MM.  Cueto served as the Reds’ ace for many years until the Royals acquired him in July, removing his qualifying offer eligibility.  Prior to the trade, he went two weeks between starts due to an elbow issue, but avoided the DL.  Cueto was not the dominant force the Royals expected, as he posted a 4.76 ERA in 13 regular season starts and pitched poorly in two of his four postseason outings.  The righty capped his season with a complete game to take Game 2 of the World Series.  Cueto’s performance since August may have knocked down his free agent value, leaving teams wary of guaranteeing a sixth year.  He could still be the ace the Red Sox are seeking, as predicted by five of seven MLBTR writers, or clubs such as the Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks, Tigers, Astros, or Blue Jays could win the bidding.

9.  Alex Gordon – Royals.  Five years, $105MM.  Gordon was drafted second overall by the Royals in 2005, one pick after Upton.  He has become one of the game’s best left fielders, combining elite defense with excellent on-base skills and decent pop.  Gordon’s left-handed bat would look great in a lot of lineups, but most MLBTR writers expect him to remain in Kansas City.  How far will the World Champion Royals push the hometown discount?  We feel Gordon’s earning power is around $100MM, so it’s hard to picture him accepting something below $75MM.

10.  Ian Desmond – Mets.  Five years, $80MM.  Perhaps the game’s best shortstop from 2012-14, Desmond slumped to a .233/.290/.384 batting line in 2015.  He still hit 19 home runs, and is easily the best available at his position.  Three MLBTR writers feel the Mets will sign their longtime Nationals adversary, while the Padres and White Sox also got mentions.  Desmond will come with a qualifying offer attached.

11.  Jeff Samardzija – Giants.  Five years, $80MM.  After posting a 2.99 ERA in 2014, Samardzija seemed like another potential member of the $100MM club.  Instead, he struggled with the White Sox in 2015, leading MLB in hits and earned runs allowed.  Executives to whom we’ve spoken still like him the most out of the second tier starters, and think he’ll bounce back from this year’s 4.96 ERA.  Shark had an unconventional path to the Majors, serving as a wide receiver at Notre Dame and pitching mostly as a reliever until 2012.  That has kept his mileage down relative to someone like Yovani Gallardo, who is a year younger but has thrown nearly 27% more career innings.  The Yankees are known to like Samardzija, but the Giants, Diamondbacks, Tigers, Blue Jays, and Astros are just a few others who could get involved.

12.  Mike Leake – Giants.  Five years, $80MM.  Leake is younger than his free agent peers, as he doesn’t turn 28 until next week.  The Reds drafted him in the first round in 2009 and put him straight into the Majors in 2010.  Leake profiles as a sub-4.00 ERA, mid-rotation arm, and he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer due to his trade to the Giants.  His age puts five years on the table.  The Giants generally retain their guys and are the prohibitive favorite, though the Diamondbacks are known to like him.  To read our full profile on Leake, click here.

13.  Wei-Yin Chen – Tigers.  Five years, $80MM.  Chen, a native of Taiwan, was signed by the Orioles out of Japan in 2012.  Though he’s been prone to the longball, the lefty has posted a 3.44 ERA in 377 innings over the last two seasons.  Boras figures to position him as a cut above the typical mid-rotation arms, pushing for a fifth year despite a qualifying offer.  In need of multiple arms, the Boras-friendly Tigers could be a match.

14.  Kenta Maeda – Diamondbacks.  $20MM posting fee plus five year, $60MM contract.  Maeda, 28 in April, recently finished his eighth season with Japan’s Hiroshima Carp.  After he put up a 2.09 ERA in 206 1/3 innings, the Carp may decide to post Maeda.  The posting system established in 2013 caps the posting fee at $20MM, allowing all teams that tie for the highest posting bid to negotiate with the player for 30 days.  Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart admitted a year ago he loves Maeda, so Arizona is a strong contender.

15.  Matt Wieters – Nationals.  Four years, $64MM.  Another former first-round draft pick, the switch-hitting Wieters has an above average bat for a catcher and little competition on the market at his position.  As with Upton, there’s a feeling Wieters hasn’t lived up to expectations, but he’s still a quality player.  His contract will be depressed by last year’s Tommy John surgery, which delayed his 2015 debut until June and prevented him from catching on consecutive days regularly.  We expect him to turn down the Orioles’ qualifying offer, and the Nationals could sign Wieters as an upgrade over Wilson Ramos.  The Braves make sense with Wieters’ strong Georgia ties, while the Angels, Astros, and White Sox could be fits.  Click here for our full profile of Wieters.

16.  Dexter Fowler – Mets.  Four years, $60MM.  Fowler, 30 in March, joined the Cubs from the Astros in a January trade.  He did a fine job as the Cubs’ center fielder, playing in a career-high 156 regular season games and quieting concerns about his 2014 defensive metrics.  The switch-hitter posted his standard solid OBP and a career-best 17 home runs, so he’ll be turning down the Cubs’ qualifying offer in search of a multiyear deal.  A return to the Cubs makes sense, but if they decide to move on, the Mets, Nationals, Angels, Marlins, and White Sox are some decent matches.  Teams like the Mariners and Rangers may seek help in center field, but may be reluctant to forfeit their first-round draft pick.

17.  Daniel Murphy – Angels.  Four years, $56MM.  Murphy, 31 in April, has long served as a solid second baseman for the Mets.  He had the best contact rate in baseball among qualified hitters this year and can also handle third base.  He’s a below average defensive second baseman.  After hitting a career-high 14 home runs in the regular season, Murphy smashed seven more in the span of seven postseason games against the Dodgers and Cubs.  His bat quieted in the World Series, and he also committed a costly error in Game 4.  The idea that 14 postseason games had his free agent value swinging $20MM in either direction was always nonsense, as a qualifying offer and a contract in the range of Chase Headley’s four-year, $52MM pact made sense for Murphy before the postseason narratives set in.  The Angels and Yankees are the favorites among MLBTR writers, with the White Sox also getting a mention.

18.  Scott Kazmir – Orioles.  Four years, $52MM.  Kazmir put up an excellent 3.10 ERA in 183 innings this year for the Athletics and Astros.  Though he was either struggling or out of the Majors from 2009-12, Kazmir has re-established himself over the last three seasons.  The southpaw, who is ineligible for a qualifying offer, has a case for a four-year deal.  I don’t completely subscribe to the narrative, but Kazmir will have to contend with the impression that he fades down the stretch.  The Orioles, perhaps seeking a more affordable southpaw to replace Wei-Yin Chen, could pursue Kazmir.  The Tigers, Blue Jays, Giants, Dodgers, Padres, and Royals are other possibilities.

19.  Ian Kennedy – Angels.  Four years, $52MM.  Kennedy had a 4.28 ERA for the Padres but seemed deserving of better.  He will deal with the drag of a qualifying offer, but several teams will gravitate toward a pitcher with a 9.3 K/9 over the last two seasons.  Kennedy’s biggest issue is home runs; no one posted a higher rate per nine innings this year.  The Angels, Giants, Astros, Tigers, Blue Jays, and Orioles are potential suitors.

20.  Yovani Gallardo – Tigers.  Four years, $52MM.  Gallardo, 30 in February, spent his career with the Brewers before a January trade to the Rangers.  Once one of the NL’s better pitchers, Gallardo has settled in as a mid-rotation arm.  His peripheral stats this year suggest he was fortunate to manage a 3.42 ERA, and his qualifying offer could hamper his market.  The Tigers could work, as a team seeking multiple starters with a protected first-rounder.

21.  Ben Zobrist – Yankees.  Three years, $51MM.  Baseball’s Swiss Army knife would fit with more than a dozen teams, as he can handle second base and the outfield corners and even back up at shortstop.  Offensively, Zobrist contributes a strong OBP and good pop, plus he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer because he was traded to the Royals.  He’ll be vying for a fourth year, and Victor Martinez did get that, but with Zobrist turning 35 in May it’s still a tough sell.  He remains a good fit for the Royals, while the Yankees, Orioles, Padres, Astros, and White Sox could also make sense.

22.  Howie Kendrick – White Sox.  Four years, $50MM.  Kendrick presents an alternative to Murphy, from the right side of the plate.  He remains an above-average hitter and is considered a competent second baseman.  After nine seasons with the Angels, Kendrick was traded to the Dodgers last December.  The 32-year-old will likely seek a four-year deal, which may cause a few suitors to back away.  The White Sox have a protected first-round pick and could stabilize second base with Kendrick.  The Yankees, Royals, Angels, and Mets are other possibilities.

23.  Byung-ho Park – Rockies.  $10MM posting fee plus five-year, $40MM contract.  Park, a 29-year-old first baseman from the Korea Baseball Organization, was posted by the Nexen Heroes this week.  In the wake of the Pirates’ success with Jung-ho Kang, Park’s price tag should exceed that $16MM expenditure.  Park had big home run numbers but played in a very homer-friendly league.  We may learn next week which MLB team won the posting bidding and if the Heroes will accept it, making this an easier pick for our free agent prediction contest.  The Rockies, Orioles, Cardinals, Indians, Mariners, Marlins, Padres, Phillies, and Pirates are potential matches.

24.  John Lackey – Cubs.  Three years, $50MM.  Lackey had a fantastic year for the Cardinals, with a 2.77 ERA in 218 innings.  His base salary was the league minimum due to an injury-related clause he agreed to upon signing with Theo Epstein’s Red Sox in 2009, but the Cards added $2MM in performance bonuses.  After that bargain, the Cardinals made the $15.8MM qualifying offer, and Lackey is expected to turn it down in search of a multiyear deal.  He recently turned 37, so some suitors could be wary of a three-year deal.  The Cubs, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Astros, Royals, Giants, Tigers, Blue Jays, Orioles, Mariners, Marlins, Nationals, Rangers, Twins, and Yankees could all be part of his robust market.

25.  Hisashi Iwakuma – Mariners.  Three years, $45MM.  Iwakuma’s run of success continued with the Mariners, as he posted a 3.54 ERA in 20 starts and pitched a no-hitter.  He missed more than two months with a lat strain, however, and turns 35 in April.  He’ll contend with a qualifying offer if he reaches the open market, but interest in a new deal with Seattle is mutual.  Iwakuma’s market would resemble that of Lackey.

26.  Colby Rasmus – Padres.  Three years, $39MM.  Rasmus, a 29-year-old former first-round draft pick, hit a career-high 25 home runs for the Astros this year.  He added four more in nine postseason games.  Rasmus can play all three outfield positions, too.  One of four 2005 first-round draft picks on this list, Rasmus had trouble meshing with the Cardinals and Blue Jays clubhouses but found comfort in Houston.   The Astros made him a qualifying offer, however, and the prospect of forfeiting a draft pick will give some teams pause.

27.  Denard Span – Cubs.  Three years, $39MM.  Span, 32 in February, hit .292/.345/.404 in his three seasons with the Nationals.  His center field defense rated as below average for the last two years, however.  Span had hip surgery on September 1st and will spend most of the offseason recovering, potentially depressing his price tag.  To the great benefit of his market, Span did not receive a qualifying offer from the Nationals.  The Cubs are a good fit for Span, though it’s easier to picture a team like the Mariners coming into play since they have the first unprotected pick in the draft.

28.  Brett Anderson – Dodgers.  Three years, $39MM.  Anderson is another interesting southpaw, although his market will be hampered by a qualifying offer from the Dodgers.  Anderson is young for a free agent, as he doesn’t turn 28 until February.  He doesn’t miss a ton of bats, but he led all qualified starters with a 66.3% groundball rate this year.  He set a career high with 180 1/3 regular season innings with the Dodgers, after injuries limited him to 206 1/3 over the previous four seasons.  Anderson’s injury history likely takes a four-year deal off the table unless the average annual value is greatly reduced.  The Dodgers may retain him, especially since his leverage is reduced by their qualifying offer.  Otherwise his market should resemble that of Kazmir.

29.  Marco Estrada – Athletics.  Three years, $30MM.  Estrada looked like a non-tender candidate for the Brewers a year ago, who traded him to the Blue Jays for Adam Lind.  He didn’t even join Toronto’s rotation until May 5th, but he went on to post a 3.28 ERA in 28 starts.  He also raised his profile with two excellent postseason starts in three tries.  The 32-year-old soft-tosser received a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays — an offer of a one-year, $15.8MM contract upon which he must decide in the next seven days.  Estrada has earned $10MM in his career, so accepting the offer has to be a serious consideration.  Still, Estrada would surely prefer the security of a multiyear deal, and has a good chance of finding a three-year contract even with the draft pick cost.  The qualifying offer gives the Blue Jays leverage over the next week, so it’s possible he’ll strike a multiyear deal with them to remain in Toronto.

30.  J.A. Happ – Royals.  Three years, $30MM.  Happ, a 33-year-old southpaw, posted a 4.64 ERA in 108 2/3 innings for the Mariners but a 1.85 mark in 63 1/3 for the Pirates.  Assuming teams feel some of that success can be replicated outside of Pittsburgh, Happ will be a popular mid-range free agent target, as he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer and probably won’t expect a four-year deal.  The Pirates will attempt to retain him, while the Royals, Orioles, Padres, Angels, Giants, Tigers, A’s, Dodgers, and Marlins also make sense.

31.  David Freese – White Sox.  Three years, $30MM.  Freese is a decent third baseman in a market bereft of them.  33 in April, he hit .260/.328/.394 over the last three years and plays average defense.  The Halos chose not to risk the one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer to Freese.  That’s a big plus for his free agency and probably makes a third year possible.  He could return to the Angels, while the White Sox and Indians also make sense.

32.  Gerardo Parra – Nationals.  Three years, $27MM.  Parra was a hot commodity on the July trade market after hitting well beyond his norm for 100 games with the Brewers.  The Orioles acquired him, and he tanked in the remaining 55 games.  Still, Parra doesn’t turn 29 until May, he plays all three outfield positions, and he’s not eligible for a qualifying offer.  Parra’s struggles against left-handed pitching prevent him from being a regular, but he’ll be a popular free agent as something between a regular and a fourth outfielder.  There’s a Mike Rizzo connection since Parra came up with the D’Backs, while the White Sox, Mets, and Padres could also work.

33.  Darren O’Day – Red Sox.  Three years, $22.5MM.  O’Day may be the best reliever on the free agent market.  The sidearmer compiled a 1.92 ERA in 263 innings over four seasons with the Orioles.  He has at times struggled with walks and home runs against left-handed hitters, but he doesn’t have to be used as a righty specialist.  Though he recently turned 33, a three-year deal is in order.  If the Orioles elect not to pay the price, the Red Sox, Tigers, Braves, Diamondbacks, and Mets are just a few potential suitors.

34.  Joakim Soria – Tigers.  Three years, $18MM.  Soria, the former dominant Royals closer, is fully back to form after April 2012 Tommy John surgery.  He became the Tigers’ closer after Joe Nathan went down with an elbow injury, and was traded to the Pirates in July.  A healthy three-year deal is in order for Soria, who turns 32 in May.  His market will be similar to that of O’Day, perhaps with a boost for some teams due to his closing experience.

35.  Austin Jackson – Rockies.  One year, $12MM.  Jackson looked like a potential star after a breakout 2012 season with the Tigers.  However, his offense declined and he was traded to the Mariners at the 2014 trade deadline.  Seattle sent him to the Cubs this year at the August deadline.  Jackson doesn’t turn 29 until February, and he plays a capable center field.  There’s a good chance he can still pass as a two-win center fielder.  A Boras client, Jackson could attempt to maximize his earnings now on multiyear deal, or rebuild value on a one-year pact.  A return to the Cubs makes sense, while the Rockies, Marlins, Nationals, Rangers, Braves, Reds, White Sox, and Indians could also be fits.

36.  Tyler Clippard – Braves.  Three years, $18MM.  Clippard’s strikeout and walk rates moved in the wrong direction this year, but he still compiled a 2.92 ERA in 71 innings for the Athletics and Mets.  He’s a two-time All-Star who has succeeded in a setup and occasional closer role since 2009.  His history of success should be enough for a three-year deal.

37.  Asdrubal Cabrera – White Sox.  Two years, $18MM.  The Rays signed Cabrera to a one-year, $7.5MM deal in January.  His longstanding record as a below-average defensive shortstop held true, but he showed some pop with 15 home runs and overall was a net positive.  Some teams might prefer him at second base, where he played for the Nationals last year.  The Padres or White Sox could plug him in as a stopgap at either position.

38.  Mat Latos – Pirates.  One year, $12MM.  A few years ago, Latos seemed in line for a monster free agent deal upon hitting the market at age 28.  Then bone spurs in his elbow late in 2013 led to surgery, followed by knee surgery prior to 2014 spring training, and then a flexor mass strain in his elbow.  His 2014 season debut was pushed to mid-June.   He had a stem cell elbow procedure in November 2014, and then the Reds traded him to the Marlins.  He battled minor injuries but showed promise in his 16 starts with the Marlins this year and then joined the Dodgers via trade.  Latos struggled in six outings for the Dodgers and earned his release, hooking on with the Angels in late September to make a few relief appearances.  Latos will probably go for a one-year deal to rebuild value, and the Pirates have a knack for getting pitchers back on track.  As one of only a couple of interesting one-year deal arms, Latos should be popular.

39.  Doug Fister – Astros.  One year, $10MM.  Fister is the other popular one-year deal target, as he served as a dependable starting pitcher until this year.  With his strikeout and groundball rates declining, and his fastball down to around 86 miles per hour, he doesn’t have the upside of Latos.

40.  Mike Pelfrey – Royals.  Two years, $15MM.  Pelfrey isn’t the most exciting free agent starter, but the righty did make 30 starts for the Twins this year with the game’s eighth best home run prevention rate.  Teams like the Royals, Tigers, and Phillies could entertain him for the back end of the rotation.

41.  Antonio Bastardo – Mariners.  Three years, $15MM.  Bastardo profiles as the best lefty reliever on the free agent market after a 2.98 ERA in 57 1/3 innings for the Pirates.  The 30-year-old does have control problems, however.  The Mariners, Twins, and Cardinals are a few potential matches.

42.  Ryan Madson – Twins.  Three years, $15MM.  Madson, 35, signed a minor league deal with the Royals in January.  He hadn’t pitched in the Majors since 2011.  With a 2.13 ERA and strong peripherals in 63 1/3 big league innings, Madson proved he’s all the way back as a top setup option.  Suitors will prefer a two-year deal due to Madson’s age and history, but a third year might win the bid.

43.  Steve Pearce – Rangers.  Two years, $14MM.  Pearce smashed 21 home runs in 383 plate appearances for the Orioles in 2014, but couldn’t replicate his success in his contract year.  He could fill a lefty-mashing left field/first base role for the Rangers.

44.  Shawn Kelley – Diamondbacks.  Two years, $12MM.  Kelley has a shot at a three-year deal, after he posted a 2.45 ERA, 11.1 K/9, and 2.6 BB/9 in 51 1/3 innings for the Padres this year.  He’ll be appealing to a long list of teams seeking to augment the bullpen.

45.  John Jaso – Orioles.  Two years, $12MM.  Jaso spent most of the season as the Rays’ designated hitter, and figures to remain in the American League.  A wrist injury knocked him out for three months this year.  The 32-year-old hit .278/.368/.439 against right-handed pitching over the last three years, but generally shouldn’t face lefties.

46.  Chris B. Young – Yankees.  Two years, $12MM.  Young is a lefty-masher who can play all three outfield positions.  If the Yankees don’t bring him back, the Rangers could be a fit.

47.  Tony Sipp – Astros.  Three years, $12MM.  Sipp, one of the top lefty relievers on the market, revived his career by joining the Astros in 2014.  He seems inclined to stay in Houston, though he may be popular enough to net a three-year offer.

48.  Justin Morneau – Orioles.  One year, $8MM.  After winning a batting title with the Rockies last year, Morneau played in just 49 games in 2015 due to a strained neck and concussion symptoms.  A move back to the American League makes sense.

49.  Alexei Ramirez – Padres.  One year, $7.5MM.  Ramirez’s $10MM option was a borderline call for the White Sox, but they ultimately chose the $1MM buyout.  The 34-year-old struggled mightily in the season’s first three months, but hit a respectable .282/.329/.426 in the second half.  His defense might be a little below average at this point, but teams seeking a shortstop can’t be too picky.

50.  Rich Hill – Phillies.  One year, $5MM.  Hill, 36 in March, rose from the ashes to twirl four brilliant starts for the Red Sox in September and October.  He’s a southpaw with a huge curveball and career-long control issues.  His last run of success as a starter came in 2007, but I like using the last spot on this list for a wild card.

Honorable mentions: Mark Buehrle, Bartolo Colon, Nori Aoki, Rajai Davis, Alejandro De Aza, Jimmy Rollins, Mike Napoli, Marlon Byrd, Chase Utley, David Murphy, Tim Lincecum, Mark Lowe, Alex Rios, Chris Young

Cuban righty Yaisel Sierra has been left off the top 50 list since the timing of his free agency remains an unknown.

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2016 MLB Free Agents MLBTR Originals Newsstand

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Rockies Have Considered Signing Daniel Murphy

By charliewilmoth | November 7, 2015 at 2:03pm CDT

The Rockies have considered the possibility of signing Daniel Murphy to play first base, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. The Mets did, of course, extend Murphy a qualifying offer. The Rockies’ top pick — fourth overall — is protected, although they would have to give up their Comp Round A pick he rejects the qualifying offer and they sign him.

The timeline of the Rockies’ interest in Murphy is unclear, but if they’ve seriously considered signing him, it’s possible they could be planning to make a surprising impact this winter. Murphy doesn’t figure to be cheap — MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicts he’ll get four years and $56MM. The market at first is rather thin, though, and Murphy does figure to be less expensive than the top first base option, Chris Davis, who should get at least twice as much. Korean slugger Byung-ho Park is another possibility, although it’s not yet clear which team won the rights to negotiate with him.

The Rockies headed into 2015 with Justin Morneau topping their depth chart at first base, but they declined their mutual option on him after he hit .310/.363/.458 in 49 games but struggled to stay healthy. Ben Paulsen ended up playing at first for much of the year, but the Rockies’ interest in Murphy suggests they won’t be wedded to Paulsen as their starting first baseman.

Murphy, of course, figures to draw interest from any number of teams, many of whom want him to play second or third, where his bat will have a greater impact. (The average first baseman last year hit .259/.336/.444, not significantly worse than Murphy’s .281/.322/.449, although Murphy did hit in a tough home park.) It will be interesting to see whether the Rockies are willing to pay a premium for Murphy’s bat (and postseason heroics) when other teams might be able to get better value from him by having him play elsewhere on the diamond.

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Colorado Rockies Newsstand Daniel Murphy

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Nexen Heroes Accept $12.85MM Posting Fee For Byung-ho Park

By Jeff Todd | November 7, 2015 at 12:15pm CDT

SATURDAY: Neither the Indians nor the Tigers submitted the winning bid for Park, via MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian and MLive.com’s Chris Iott (on Twitter). The Indians did bid for Park, although their bid came up short; the Tigers did not bid for him. The Rangers are not the team either, via a tweet from MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan. The Orioles, who looked like a potential fit for Park, were outbid and will not be signing him, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun tweets. The Padres did not win the bidding either, according to Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (on Twitter). Meanwhile, Jeff Passan of Yahoo tweets that the Red Sox did not win the bid and will stick with Hanley Ramirez at first base.

FRIDAY: Korea’s Nexen Heroes have decided to accept a $12.85MM bid on the rights to negotiate a big league contract with first baseman Byung-Ho Park, the club said in an announcement. (The news comes via Korean outlet Naver Sports, at a Korean language link. Han Lee of Global Sporting Integration tweeted the key portion of the report in English.)

It is not yet known what MLB club won the posting process, but the as-yet-unidentified team will have thirty days to work out a contract with the first baseman. Nexen technically has until Monday afternoon to make its formal decision on the bid, at which point the clock will begin to run.

If Park and his new club are not able to reach agreement on a contract, all involved would lose something. Nexen would not receive the posting fee, Park would not be able to play in North America, and the winning team would not only miss out on the player but also the time spent in talks. It’s far from certain that a contract will be agreed upon, but the incentives are aligned to make it happen.

The reported $12.85MM fee would fall well shy of the $25MM+ posting amount commanded by lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu. But it steadily outpaces what the Pirates paid Nexen last year (around $5MM) for the rights to reach a deal with infielder Jung-Ho Kang. After the team-to-team transfer was arrived at, Kang and the Bucs agreed to a four-year, $11MM guarantee.

Surely, the success of the latter this year in the majors helped boost the appeal of Park. Both had similarly outlandish numbers in the KBO, though Park has done it more consistently over several seasond. Of course, he’s also a first baseman.

In the just-released list of MLBTR’s top fifty free agents, Tim Dierkes predicted that Park would command a $10MM posting fee and a five-year, $40MM contract from the winning team. The first part of that was close, but it remains to be seen how negotiations will proceed.

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Twenty Free Agents Receive Qualifying Offers

By Jeff Todd | November 6, 2015 at 11:35pm CDT

Today marked the deadline for players to receive one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offers, and we saw a record 20 players receive them. There were only nine recipients in 2012-13, followed by 13 the next year and a dozen last winter. This winter’s slate of free agents has long been considered robust, but that’s still a remarkable increase in the use of the QO.

Here are this year’s free agents who were extended a qualifying offer by their teams (in alphabetical order)

  • Brett Anderson, SP (Dodgers)
  • Wei-Yin Chen, SP (Orioles)
  • Chris Davis, 1B (Orioles)
  • Ian Desmond, SS (Nationals)
  • Marco Estrada, SP (Blue Jays)
  • Dexter Fowler, OF (Cubs)
  • Yovani Gallardo, SP (Rangers)
  • Alex Gordon, OF (Royals)
  • Zack Greinke, SP (Dodgers)
  • Jason Heyward, OF (Cardinals)
  • Hisashi Iwakuma, SP (Mariners)
  • Howie Kendrick, 2B (Dodgers)
  • Ian Kennedy, SP (Padres)
  • John Lackey, SP (Cardinals)
  • Daniel Murphy, 2B/3B (Mets)
  • Colby Rasmus, OF (Astros)
  • Jeff Samardzija, SP (White Sox)
  • Justin Upton, OF (Padres)
  • Matt Wieters, C (Orioles)
  • Jordan Zimmermann, SP (Nationals)

The rules regarding the qualifying offer are set forth in full detail right here. In brief, though, should these players reject the offer and sign with a new team, their former team will stand to receive a “sandwich” round draft pick as compensation. Those new teams, in turn, will have to forfeit their top unprotected draft pick (or picks, if they sign multiple QO-rejecting players). If a player rejects a QO but ultimately re-signs with the same team, no draft pick shuffling occurs.

The net result is that players who reject qualifying offers enter the market with the requirement of draft compensation weighing them down. The players listed above will now have one week to decide whether or not to accept the QO and play on a one-year deal worth $15.8MM, or instead to or reject the offer in search of a larger guarantee on the open market.

The word “guarantee” is the key to that sentiment: while many will focus on whether or not the players can top that average annual value on the free agent market, more often than not, a player is concerned primarily with maximizing the amount of money he can earn over his prime seasons. Few players are ever sold on the idea of playing on a one-year deal when a multi-year guarantee can be had. Single-year contracts, on the free agent market, are often reserved for older players who don’t know how long they wish to continue playing (e.g. Torii Hunter last year), players coming off significant injuries (e.g. Brett Anderson last winter) or players who have underperformed in a contract year (e.g. Colby Rasmus last offseason).

Indeed, we’ve yet to see a single player accept a qualifying offer. While upon first glance it might make sense to suggest a player with a spotty track record, such as Anderson, should accept the offer, there’s quite possibly more downside for him in accepting than in rejecting. Even if Anderson is faced with a cold market, he’d likely be able to find a one-year contract at an AAV north of $10MM — which is what he got last year after an injury-shortened season — if not a one-year offer commensurate with the total sum of the qualifying offer, as Ervin Santana did previously when signing a one-year, $14.1MM contract (that year’s QO value). Whereas the downside in accepting is “settling” for a one-year deal a few ticks below the QO level, the upside in rejecting is finding perhaps a three-year deal that could more than double the guarantee he’d otherwise receive. This risk/benefit calculus generally points toward testing the market.

Reports on whether or not any player will accept the offer should be filtering in over the next week, but those looking for a quick resource to check the status of each can use MLBTR’s Free Agent Tracker (the provided link is already filtered to show only free agents that have received the QO, and their status will change from “Received” to “Rejected” or “Accepted” upon a decision being reached).

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