Phillies Notes: Kepler, Further Offseason Moves, Sasaki
The Phillies might have already made their biggest moves of the offseason. On Friday, the team announced the signing of outfielder Max Kepler to a one-year, $10MM deal. Kepler’s is the second major league contract Philadelphia has given out this winter; they signed right-handed reliever Jordan Romano to a one-year, $8.5MM guarantee earlier this month. At a recent press conference, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski suggested those two signings are likely his primary offseason additions.
The executive spoke favorably of Kepler, praising his selectivity and bat-to-ball skills. According to Baseball Savant, the Phillies ranked among the bottom half of teams in contact and chase rate in 2024. Evidently, Dombrowski is hoping Kepler will help to fix that problem. His chase rate was below average this past year but typically ranks among the top 25% of the league. Meanwhile, his contact rate has been above average in every season of his career.
Kepler will slot into the lineup as the primary left fielder. Although he has never played the position at the MLB level, Dombrowski has no concerns about his ability to quickly pick it up. He has graded out as an excellent defensive right fielder throughout his career. Of more concern than Kepler’s ability to play left field is his ability to hit left-handed pitching. The lefty batter had reverse platoon splits in 2024 but has often struggled against southpaws in his career. Dombrowski makes it clear that Kepler won’t just be the strong side of a platoon in Philadelphia. However, the POBO identifies the righty-batting Weston Wilson as someone who could occasionally cover for Kepler with a tough lefty on the mound. Johan Rojas is another righty-batting outfielder on the roster, but he’ll most likely be busy covering for center fielder Brandon Marsh, another lefty-batting outfielder with poor platoon splits.
While Dombrowski spoke highly of Kepler, he acknowledged that his new signing is coming off a down year. It’s debatable how true that is; Kepler’s .682 OPS and 94 wRC+ in 2024 were a big step down from his .816 OPS and 123 wRC+ in 2023, but right in line with his .694 OPS and 95 wRC+ from 2021-22. The version of Kepler on display in 2024 might be closer to his true talents than the version we saw in 2023. Regardless, Dombrowski offered some insight into why the outfielder took a step back in 2024 and why the Phillies are optimistic he’ll improve in 2025. Kepler was playing through a core muscle injury for much of the 2024 season. However, he had surgery to repair the issue this offseason and has already recovered. Phillies hitting coach Kevin Long watched him swing earlier, and Dombrowski suggests Long was pleased with what he saw.
While Kepler and Romano are both looking to bounce back from injuries in 2025, Dombrowski would not characterize either signing as bargain bin shopping. He emphasized that Kepler and Romano are simply two players the team wanted – indeed, he says they have liked Kepler for quite a while – and it was the players themselves who sought one-year deals. It seems that both are hoping to boost their value and re-enter the free agent market next offseason.
On a similar note, Dombrowski also denied that he is working under strict payroll constraints. That said, he did make it quite clear that he almost certainly isn’t looking to sign any additional impact free agents. If that proves to be true, this would be the first offseason in Dombrowski’s tenure with the Phillies that he didn’t sign a free agent to a nine-figure contract. However, Philadelphia’s payroll is still projected to increase by more than $30MM to a franchise-record $280MM in 2025 (per RosterResource). That’s largely because the three-year, $126MM extension Zack Wheeler signed this past March will begin next year. In other words, one could argue that Dombrowski did sign a nine-figure deal this offseason – he just did it several months early.
As for smaller additions to improve the team along the margins, Dombrowski identifies two needs: one more position player for the bench and a swingman for the pitching staff. Currently, the Phillies have three bench players who seem to be locks for the Opening Day roster: utility infielder Edmundo Sosa, fourth outfielder Rojas, and backup catcher Garrett Stubbs. They could use one more option who can play both the infield and the outfield. While Dombrowski doesn’t eliminate the possibility of seeking an external upgrade, he suggests the Phillies are more likely to stick with their internal candidates. He names Wilson, Kody Clemens, and Buddy Kennedy as three players who could fill that role from within the organization.
Wilson has the most MLB success of the trio, albeit in a small sample size, and Dombrowski mentioned his name multiple times during the presser. The only thing working against his chances of making the Opening Day roster right now is the fact that he still has one option year remaining. Clemens and Kennedy are out of options, which means the Phillies would risk losing them through waivers if they don’t put them on the active roster. On the other hand, Clemens is at a disadvantage as another lefty bat, while Kennedy has very limited professional experience playing the outfield.
Turning to the pitching staff, Dombrowski is more likely to look outside the organization for an upgrade. Ideally, he’d like an arm that could potentially take the fifth spot in the rotation but could also pitch out of the bullpen if Taijuan Walker wins the fifth starter job out of camp. That seems to describe someone like Spencer Turnbull, who the Phillies signed for one year and $2MM last offseason. Turnbull made seven starts and 10 relief appearances for Philadelphia before suffering a season-ending injury. Jakob Junis could be an intriguing option to fill that role in 2025. The 32-year-old righty has made 27 starts and 60 relief appearances over the past three years, pitching to a 3.80 ERA and 3.62 SIERA.
The Phillies currently have six locks for the Opening Day bullpen. Dombrowski describes Romano, Matt Strahm, José Alvarado, and Orion Kerkering as back-end arms, and he identifies Tanner Banks and José Ruiz as middle-inning relievers the team likes. That leaves two bullpen spots open. One spot would presumably go to the aforementioned swingman. The other will most likely remain up for grabs entering spring training. Dombrowski mentioned Max Lazar as one possibility to win the job. The righty struggled in a handful of big league appearances this past year but excelled in the minors.
One final point of interest from Dombrowski’s press conference was his brief discussion of NPB phenom Roki Sasaki. The executive made it clear the Phillies would love to engage in further discussions with Sasaki and his team, but at this time, Philadelphia has not been invited to do so. That’s not entirely surprising – the Phillies never seemed like a frontrunner in the Sasaki sweepstakes – but it’s still a disappointing update.
Yankees Notes: Williams, Loaisiga, Bellinger, Trevino
It’s been a frenetic week-plus for the Yankees, who over the past ten days have watched Juan Soto sign with the Mets and quickly pivoted to bring lefty Max Fried, closer Devin Williams and first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger into the fold. There’s still more on the Yankees’ short-term to-do list, but Williams also offered a glimpse at a potential conversation that could be had in the coming months. Asked by the YES Network’s Jack Curry about the possibility of signing a long-term contract in the Bronx, Williams replied that it’s “definitely an option.” As it stands, he’s heading into his final season of club control before free agency.
Williams has been one of the game’s most dominant relievers since making his debut. The 2020 National League Rookie of the Year ranks in the top-three of all big league pitchers (min. 200 innings) in both ERA (1.83, second) and strikeout rate (39.4%, third) since coming into the league.
Detractors might point to Williams surrendering what was effectively a season-ending home run to Pete Alonso against the Mets in the NLDS, but it’s rare for the righty to falter in that manner. Since 2020, his first full big league season, no pitcher in baseball has a higher win probability added than Williams. He’s been placed into 138 save/hold situations in his career and only blown the opportunity 10 times. Broadly speaking, Williams has done his best work in high-leverage spots, that lasting memory from the ’24 postseason notwithstanding.
A pitcher with Williams’ stuff and track record should have the opportunity to command one of the largest deals ever for a reliever next winter — provided he maintains that standard in his first season with the Yankees. Williams will pitch nearly all of this season at 30 years of age, turning 31 in September. Age and perhaps some health questions — he missed three months in 2024 with multiple stress fractures in his back — might keep him from quite reaching the same heights that Edwin Diaz (five years, $102MM) and his former teammate Hader (five years, $95MM) reached in free agency. Diaz was 29 in the first year of his contract. Hader was 30.
Still, Williams could reasonably expect to command at least four years, if not five, and he’d be able to push into the rarefied air of $16-20MM average annual values for relievers that have only been attainable for the game’s truly elite stoppers over the past few years. Diaz, Hader, Wade Davis, Liam Hendriks, Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman are the only relievers to command multi-year deals with AAVs of $16MM or more.
Whether the two sides will actually get into serious negotiations is an open question, but Williams’ ostensible openness is of some note. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $7.7MM in his final arbitration this coming season, and one would presume he and his reps at Klutch Sports are eyeing an annual salary of $18MM or more for his free agent seasons. It’d be a costly endeavor, but the Yankees have been willing to make huge commitments to the bullpen in the past (e.g. Chapman, Zack Britton).
Elsewhere in the Yankee bullpen is another potentially dominant arm: righty Jonathan Loaisiga. The Yanks more quietly re-signed the Nicaraguan-born righty this month. He’s currently eight months removed from an internal brace procedure to repair a UCL tear in his right elbow. Pitching coach Matt Blake told reporters today, including Chris Kirschner of The Athletic, that the aim is for Loaisiga to be back in the Yankees’ big league bullpen by late April or early May.
The 30-year-old Loaisiga has only reached 50 innings in one big league season but has been excellent when healthy enough to take the ball. Dating back to 2020, the oft-injured righty sports a 2.98 ERA with a below-average 20.3% strikeout rate but a strong 6.5% walk rate and an elite 58% ground-ball rate. Since largely shelving his four-seamer in favor of a sinker, Loaisiga has averaged a blazing 98.1 mph on that sinker, also employing a changeup to help keep lefties off balance. It seems the current expectation is for Loaisiga to open the season on the injured list, but it may not be a particularly lengthy stay, based on the current trajectory of his rehab.
Of course, the headline-grabbing news of the week in the Bronx — beyond finalizing their eight-year deal with Fried and introducing him at a press conference today — was the Yankees’ completion of a trade to bring Bellinger to the Bronx. Rumors of talks between the Yankees and Cubs were plentiful, particularly once Soto signed with the Mets. The two teams finally lined up on a deal yesterday afternoon.
USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted not long after the trade that the Yankees had informed Bellinger he’ll be utilized in center field. General manager Brian Cashman pushed back on that today following the Fried presser (link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com), stating that there’s no firm decision on Bellinger’s defensive home. He could play any of center field, left field or first base for the Yankees next season, and that decision will be contingent on what the Yankees are able to accomplish throughout the remainder of the offseason. FOX Sports’ Deesha Thosar adds that manager Aaron Boone spoke to Bellinger last night, and Bellinger informed his new skipper he’s open to playing wherever needed.
That flexibility, plus the flexibility provided by Jazz Chisholm Jr.‘s ability to play multiple spots, leaves Cashman a vast array of possibilities for the remainder of the offseason. The Yankees are reportedly intrigued by several free agent first basemen but could look to the outfield market and also have other areas of depth from which they could trade. Francys Romero of BeisbolFR.com suggests that catcher Jose Trevino, for instance, could find himself on the trade block in the weeks ahead.
There’s been some speculation that the Yankees could deal from their catching depth this winter, and they’ve already moved one of the five catchers they had on their 40-man roster, sending Carlos Narvaez to the Red Sox for a minor league pitcher and some international bonus pool space. With Austin Wells emerging as the starter behind the plate and backstops J.C. Escarra and Jesus Rodriguez joining Trevino on the 40-man roster, there’s still a good bit of depth. (That doesn’t even include catcher/first baseman Ben Rice, or catching prospect Rafael Flores, who’s not on the 40-man but just had a big season in Double-A.)
To be clear, there’s no indication that Trevino is expressly being shopped. But catching depth is always at a premium around the league, and this offseason’s market is particularly thin. The Yankees are a surefire luxury payor, and while Trevino’s projected $3.4MM salary (again, via Swartz) isn’t excessive, moving him could cut the Yankees’ spending by around $7MM after accounting for the CBT.
The 32-year-old Trevino hit just .215/.288/.354 in 234 plate appearances last year but graded out as a plus-plus defender. The 2022 Platinum Glove winner is a free agent after the season, and with a wealth of young catching options in Wells, Escarra, Rodriguez and Flores, it’d be understandable if the Yanks leveraged that depth by moving Trevino for some bullpen help or depth in another area of need.
Giants Notes: Payroll, Goldschmidt, Wade
It was reported last month that the Giants were looking to scale back payroll relative to 2024 levels, but that may no longer be the case. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports reports that the club initially had planned on focusing more on player development in 2025 while taking a step back in terms of building the major league roster, but now seems to have changed course.
That tracks with the club’s behavior in recent weeks. They just signed shortstop Willy Adames to a seven-year, $182MM deal and are reportedly involved on free agent right-hander Corbin Burnes, who is likely to get an even bigger deal than Adames. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Burnes for $200MM over seven years, but basically every pitcher has been beating expectations this winter. Max Fried was predicted for $156MM over six years, notably below the prediction for Burnes, but got to $218MM over eight years. As such, it’s fair to expect Burnes to beat Fried’s guarantee by some margin.
If the Giants are ultimately successful in signing Burnes, it would put them pretty close to the competitive balance tax line. RosterResource projects their 2025 number at $208MM right now, which is $33MM below next year’s $241MM base threshold. The Giants crossed the CBT line in 2024 and the planned pay cut likely would have seen them stay below the line in 2025, but a Burnes deal would bridge most of that gap with still other moves likely to follow. In terms of pure dollars, they’re projected for $167MM next year, almost $40MM below their 2024 spending.
The pivot to a more aggressive winter bodes well for their chances in the upcoming season. Adames fills a clear area of need and Burnes would be a huge rotation upgrade if it comes together. In addition to the financial costs of those deals, there would be long-term consequences in terms of draft capabilities. The Giants gave up two picks in 2024, one each for signing Blake Snell and Matt Chapman, since each guy had rejected a qualifying offer. Since the Giants paid the tax in 2024, the penalties are higher this winter. Signing Adames means forfeiting $1MM of international bonus pool space and two picks, their second- and fifth-highest choices in 2025. Like Adames, Burnes also rejected a qualifying offer, which would mean forfeiting another $1MM in pool space and another two picks.
Given that the club’s plan was initially going to involve player development, that’s a notable part of the pivot. However, it’s possible that the Giants simply want to make something happen now, more so than in the future. Their stunning 2021 campaign is their only winning season of the past eight years, so perhaps there’s an appetite to get over the hump sooner rather than later. New president of baseball operations Buster Posey spoke in his introductory press conference about the club getting back into the memory-making business, which has seemingly spurred the club towards shopping at or near the top of free agency.
Whether the Burnes deal can come together or not, the club will also have to consider other moves. In a separate column, Pavlovic notes that veteran first baseman Paul Goldschmidt “has a lot of fans in the organization.” Separately, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic suggests that Posey might be willing to sign veterans to short-term deals, floating Goldschmidt as a possibility alongside Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.
Goldschmidt, 37, isn’t too far removed from winning National League Most Valuable Player in 2022 but his performance has declined in the past two years. He slashed .317/.404/.578 for a 175 wRC+ in his MVP season but he fell in 2023 and dropped even further this year. His 2024 batting line finished at .245/.302/.414 for a 100 wRC+, indicating he was exactly league average. His 7.2% walk rate and 26.5% strikeout rate were both career worsts, outside of his 2011 debut.
Whether he can bounce back in 2025 or not is a matter for debate. His age and recent decline don’t bode especially well, but there is arguably some confidence to be found in his strong finish this year. He hit just .230/.291/.373 in the first half of 2024 for an 87 wRC+ but then .271/.319/.480 in the second half for a 120 wRC+.
The Giants don’t strictly have a need at first base, with LaMonte Wade Jr. currently projected as their primary option there. However, they don’t have a clear everyday designated hitter at the moment. Jorge Soler and Michael Conforto got the most DH appearances in 2024 but Soler is now and Angel and Conforto a Dodger. Wilmer Flores could be in the mix there but he was dreadful in 2024 while battling knee problems and it’s unclear how much the Giants expect from him in 2025.
With the current roster construction, using the DH for some outfield overflow might make sense. The club has Heliot Ramos, Jung Hoo Lee and Mike Yastrzemski likely in three outfield spots but with Grant McCray, Jerar Encarnación, Luis Matos, Marco Luciano and others on the roster. Having Goldschmidt and Wade sharing the DH spot and first base would make it hard to find extra at-bats for that group, though perhaps the Giants are willing to live with that in order to take a shot on Goldschmidt for his veteran leadership. He also wouldn’t be able to command a lengthy deal on account of his age and recent performance. MLBTR predicted him for a one-year pact with a $15MM guarantee at the start of the offseason.
There’s also the possibility of signing Goldschmidt and then making Wade available in trades. It was reported last month that Wade and Yastrzemski were indeed available, as well as some other players, though it’s unclear if the club’s recent change in plans has altered the availability of such players.
Wade were surely draw interest from other clubs if the Giants wanted to move him. He doesn’t provide the pop that clubs usually look to get from a first baseman, but he gets on base and isn’t too expensive. Over the past two years, he has drawn a walk in 15% of his 920 plate appearances. Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Kyle Schwarber were the only big leaguers with at least 900 plate appearances and better walk rates in that time. Wade only hit 25 home runs over those two seasons but his .258/.376/.401 batting line still translated to a strong 120 wRC+.
For his career, Wade has notable platoon splits, with a 120 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers and just a 64 wRC+ against lefties. He was much better against southpaws in 2024, though in a tiny sample of just 43 plate appearances. There are limits in his profile but MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a modest $4.7MM salary in his final year of club control.
Padres Notes: Offseason Needs, Loáisiga, Payroll, Cease
After a successful 2024 campaign that saw the Padres return to the postseason despite cutting payroll and trading Juan Soto, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is doubtlessly looking to improve his team over the winter. To that end, he told MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell that he’s looking to address holes in the corner outfield, the starting rotation, and behind the dish. None of that is especially surprising considering some of the players the Padres lost to free agency this winter, namely left fielder Jurickson Profar, starter Martín Pérez, and catcher Kyle Higashioka. Moreover, starter Joe Musgrove will miss the 2025 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, leaving the rotation without much depth.
With that said, the Padres have not yet been linked to many free agents to fill those holes. They’re interested in starter Roki Sasaki (per ESPN), but at this point, so is just about everyone else. When it comes to catchers, they’re starting to run out of options, with Higashioka, Travis d’Arnaud, Danny Jansen, and Gary Sánchez off the market and Carson Kelly nearing a deal with the Cubs. As for corner outfielders, the Padres haven’t been strongly connected to anyone yet; Preller told Cassavell he hasn’t closed the door on a reunion with Profar, but that’s pretty much it.
Similarly, the Padres have expressed some interest in bringing back Ha-Seong Kim, although the infield seems to be less of a priority. After all, the team already has an internal option to replace Kim at the keystone: Jake Cronenworth can play more often at second base and Luis Arraez can play more often at first.
Bolstering the bullpen isn’t at the top of Preller’s to-do list either, but ESPN’s Jorge Castillo recently included the Padres on a list of suitors for right-hander Jonathan Loáisiga. While the Padres lost Tanner Scott to free agency, they still have a pair of imposing back-end relievers in Robert Suarez and Jason Adam. Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon also enjoyed strong breakout seasons in 2024, while Yuki Matsui was solid in his first taste of MLB action. Even so, there’s no such thing as too much bullpen talent, and Loáisiga is the kind of high-upside arm it can’t hurt to check in on. Due to numerous arm injuries over the past three years (most recently a torn UCL), he’s unlikely to sign for multiple years or much money. However, he was dominant the last time he was healthy in 2021, tossing 70 2/3 innings with a 2.17 ERA. He flashed a 98 mph sinker and nasty sweeping curveball in a handful of outings earlier this year, and it’s possible he’ll be back from his internal brace procedure in time for Opening Day.
So, why might the Padres be particularly interested in a buy-low free agent like Loáisiga? Perhaps it’s the same reason they haven’t linked to many other free agents, even at areas of greater need. Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune writes that San Diego’s payroll will likely fall somewhere in between last year’s final tally of $169MM and the current RosterResource estimate of $210MM for 2025. In other words, Preller might need to get some cash off the books before can start spending.
One idea to help the Padres reduce payroll that’s recently been picking up steam is trading Dylan Cease. According to Acee, they have indeed discussed the idea with other teams at the Winter Meetings. It’s not clear how serious those discussions are; some of Acee’s sources suggest the Padres are actively shopping the right-hander, while others suggest they’re merely open to offers.
Needless to say, Cease isn’t a player most contending teams would consider trading. According to FanGraphs, he was worth 4.8 WAR in 2024 and 17.2 WAR over the past four seasons. That’s not the kind of production that’s easy to replace at any price, let alone his $13.7MM projected salary. That said, this wouldn’t be the first time Preller has traded a star player while remaining competitive. Perhaps he’s confident the Padres will land Sasaki. Alternatively, he could be planning to trade for Garrett Crochet; the Padres have been linked to the White Sox ace. Those might be the only two options for San Diego to replace a top-of-the-rotation pitcher like Cease at a lower salary.
Indeed, without Sasaki or Crochet, it’s hard to imagine how trading Cease wouldn’t set the Padres back. After all, Preller himself said that adding a starting pitcher was a priority this offseason. Beyond Cease, Michael King, and Yu Darvish, the Padres rotation is all question marks. Randy Vásquez struggled in his first season with San Diego, while Matt Waldron quickly slowed down after a hot start in 2024. Dealing Cease could help the Padres fill other holes on the roster, but without a frontline starter to take his place, such a move might just be one step forward and two steps back.
Garrett Crochet Rumors: Cubs, Padres, Yankees, Red Sox, Reds
7:28pm: MLBNetwork’s Jon Morosi reported this evening that a Crochet deal coming together during the Winter Meetings this week is “increasingly possible.” What’s more, Morosi suggests that the Red Sox are “more willing” to listen on top shortstop prospect Marcelo Mayer than previously believed and could become a more significant factor in Crochet’s trade market if they make him available in trade talks with the White Sox.
4:23pm: Garrett Crochet‘s status as the offseason’s top trade candidate means that there is plenty of buzz surrounding the White Sox southpaw as the Winter Meetings get underway. A crosstown trade could be a possibility, as Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times reports that the Cubs “have had at least preliminary talks” with the Sox about Crochet’s availability.
The Cubs’ list of top prospects is heavy on position players, which could fit with White Sox GM Chris Getz‘s stated aim of obtaining premium position-player talent in exchange for Crochet’s services. It is easy to imagine Getz asking for at least one of Matt Shaw or Owen Caissie as a headliner in a trade package, or perhaps even Pete Crow-Armstrong if the Sox wanted a player with some actual big league experience. Given the Cubs’ depth at both the MLB and minor league levels, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer might feel comfortable in parting with a younger blue-chipper in order to land a controllable pitcher.
Crochet is projected to earn only $2.9MM in arbitration this season, and he is under one further year of team control in 2026. Even if Crochet’s production takes a dip from his 2024 numbers, he’d still be a bargain in comparison to the cost of the average starting pitcher. This might be the type of special circumstance that would make the Cubs want to keep adding to their rotation, even though the Wrigleyville starting five already seems set with Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad, and new signing Matthew Boyd.
The White Sox are known to have a very high asking price on Crochet, and apparently had interest in at least one of Ethan Salas or Leodalis De Vries in trade talks with the Padres, as per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. San Diego has been linked to Crochet on the rumor mill since prior to the trade deadline, yet the Friars have seemingly drawn a line when it comes to moving either of the top two prospects in their farm system.
The Padres and Cubs are just two of the many clubs known to have had some level of interest in Crochet in the last six months, and given his low price, it’s probably safe to say just about every team in baseball has probably at least checked in with Getz about what it would take to land the left-hander. The Yankees refused to deal Spencer Jones to the White Sox for Crochet prior to the deadline, but MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (X link) writes that New York is still “believed to be in” on the Crochet sweepstakes.
Boston may be a different story, as Cotillo hears that the Red Sox are “just on the periphery of Garrett Crochet talks and are not aggressors at all.” This tracks with reporting from Cotillo’s MassLive colleague Sean McAdam a couple of weeks ago, as McAdam wrote that negotiations between the two Sox teams had seemingly quieted. On paper, the Red Sox would seemingly be an ideal fit for Crochet given Boston’s need for frontline pitching and their collection of elite position-player prospects (Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel), but obviously a match depends on what exactly Chicago would want back in return. For instance, there have been reports that Anthony and Campbell are the true untouchables within the “big four” Red Sox prospects, so talks might have cooled with the White Sox are insisting on one of those two.
There appear to be mixed signals on whether or not the Reds could be involved. Cotillo writes that “Cincinnati [is] seen as a real threat to land Crochet,” but Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer throws cold water on the possibility, saying that “the talks went nowhere” between the Reds and White Sox, “and there’s no reason to think they’ll re-engage at this point.” Wittenmyer notes that the two sides discussed Crochet before Cincinnati acquired Brady Singer from the Royals, so that deal could mark the end of any higher-level pitching moves the Reds could make.
AL East Notes: O’Neill, Grichuk, Holmes, Rays
At the end of last season, both Tyler O’Neill and Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow expressed interest in the possibility of O’Neill returning to Boston on a new contract. That possibility is now officially off the board after O’Neill signed a three-year, $49.5MM deal with the Orioles yesterday, and as per WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford (Bluesky link), the Sox “were not very aggressive” in their attempts to re-sign the outfielder. Boston’s pursuit of Juan Soto simply took precedence, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes, as since the Red Sox are one of the teams still waiting on Soto to make his decision, the Sox didn’t make O’Neill any offers.
More from around the AL East…
- Speaking of the O’Neill signing, the move likely closes the door on the possibility of Randal Grichuk landing in Baltimore, as MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (X link) writes that the Orioles had interest in Grichuk’s services. Grichuk would’ve been more of a clear-cut platoon player, but like O’Neill, is a right-handed bat who crushes left-handed pitching. This skillset was on full display with the Diamondbacks in 2024, when Grichuk hit .319/.386/.528 in 184 PA against southpaws. Grichuk turned down a $6MM mutual option for 2025 to enter free agency, and he figures to score a solid contract based on his lefty-mashing offense and his ability to at least passably play all three outfield positions.
- The Blue Jays had interest in Clay Holmes before Holmes signed with the Mets earlier this week, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon. Toronto was looking at Holmes just as a reliever, which isn’t surprising given how fixing the bullpen is one of the Jays’ top offseason priorities. Holmes hasn’t started a game since his rookie year in 2018, but he’ll move back into a starting role with the Mets on his new three-year, $38MM contract.
- By a 4-3 vote on Thursday, the St. Petersburg city council approved a deal to issue bonds to help cover some of the city’s contribution to the Rays‘ new ballpark project. Colleen Wright of the Tampa Bay Times (separate links) looks at both Thursday’s decision and the next step in the process, which is a Pinellas County Commission meeting on December 17 to approve the bonds and $312.5MM in tourism taxes towards the ballpark project. It isn’t yet clear how the county commission will vote, and even in the event of a yes vote, the delays in these votes have already led the Rays to threaten to abandon the deal altogether and leave the Tampa/St. Pete area, as the team says it isn’t feasible for the ballpark’s opening to be put off until 2029. The initial plan saw the new ballpark set to be ready by Opening Day 2028, but Hurricane Milton’s destruction of the Tropicana Field roof has left the Rays in a temporary home of George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa in 2025, and uncertain about their location for at least the 2026-27 seasons.
Mariners Notes: Bellinger, Hoerner, Payroll
The Mariners have been connected to a couple of Cubs recently, with recent rumors that they had discussed both infielder Nico Hoerner and first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger. Adam Jude of The Seattle Times took a look at those talks and some other Mariner topics ahead of next week’s Winter Meetings.
Both players are sensible targets for the Mariners, who have infield vacancies and have been trying to cure their strikeout woes for a while. The club’s hitters were punched out at a 25.9% clip in 2023, with only the Twins having a higher rate that season. The M’s moved on from players like Teoscar Hernández, Eugenio Suárez and Jarred Kelenic in an attempt to improve this but the plan backfired. New additions like Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger and Jorge Polanco all struggled with strikeouts themselves, so the M’s actually saw the team-wide rate jump to 26.8% in 2024, tied with the Rockies for the highest in the majors.
Hoerner has only been punched out in 12% of his plate appearances thus far. Bellinger has a higher career strikeout rate of 21.1% but he’s finished each of the past two seasons at 15.6%. Beyond the contact stuff, both players could also fit Seattle’s need for infielders. They turned down a club option on Polanco and non-tendered Josh Rojas. They traded Ty France last year and Justin Turner became a free agent at season’s end.
They are reportedly looking to add at both corners, supplementing shortstop J.P. Crawford. At second base, they are reportedly content enough with using Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss until prospect Cole Young forces his way into the picture.
Luke Raley could be part of the first base solution, though he struggles against lefties and would need to be platooned. He could also be moved to outfield if the M’s add an everyday first baseman. They have interest in re-signing Turner or reuniting with old friend Carlos Santana, but it makes sense that they would consider Bellinger with the Cubs reportedly determined to move either him or Seiya Suzuki and free up their position player mix.
However, pre Jude’s report, the financial components of a Bellinger trade are a factor. The Mariners are reportedly planning to increase payroll next year, but not by much. Jude pegs their spending range at $150-155MM and says they have about $15MM of room at the moment. Cot’s Baseball Contracts pegged the club’s Opening Day payroll at $140MM last year, so that range tracks as a modest bump. RosterResource currently projects the club for a $146MM payroll next year, which seems to be just a tad higher than what Jude is suggesting.
Bellinger’s current contract wouldn’t fit into those parameters. He’s slated to make $27.5MM this year and then will have to decide between a $5MM buyout or a $25MM salary for 2026. As such, Jude suggests that the Mariners would have to include Haniger or Garver in the deal to balance out the money a bit. The Cubs wouldn’t have much interest in Haniger, since they already have an outfield surplus. On top of that, he’s coming off a poor season and is going to make $15.5MM next year.
Garver is a better fit for the Cubs since his primary defensive position is catcher, a spot they are looking to upgrade. However, he’s been injured quite often and become more of a designated hitter over time. He’s also coming off a rough campaign and will make $11.5MM next year, plus a $1MM buyout on a 2026 mutual option.
Perhaps the contract situation will stand in the way of a deal coming together. There’s also Bellinger’s inconsistency and opt-out situation to consider. After some rough seasons where Bellinger was seemingly held back by injuries, he had a nice bounceback in 2023. He hit 26 home runs, slashed .307/.356/.525 and stole 20 bases, leading FanGraphs to credit him with 4.4 wins above replacement. But he couldn’t repeat that in 2024, producing a .266/.325/.426 line while stealing just nine bases and spending less time in center field due to the emergence of Pete Crow-Armstrong. His fWAR tally was just 2.2 this year, half of the prior year despite playing in the same number of games.
Bellinger declined to trigger an opt-out in his contract at the end of that middling season but has another opt-out next year. That makes him a tricky gamble for any acquiring club. The best case scenario is that you get him back in good form and he leaves after year one, but even that scenario costs $32.5MM. The downside is that he doesn’t get back to that level and sticks around as an overpaid part of the 2026 roster.
As for Hoerner, it was recently reported that the Mariners had discussed him with the Cubs, but it wasn’t clear how interested they were. Today, Jude says the M’s “covet” Hoerner, so it seems the interest is real from Seattle’s end.
He would be an interesting fit as he is mostly a glove-first player. He has hit .278/.338/.381 in his career for a 102 wRC+. But thanks to his excellent defense and baserunning, he was been worth roughly 4-5 fWAR in each of the past three seasons.
He came up as a shortstop but has been mostly playing second base in deference to Dansby Swanson. He’s generally perceived as capable of returning to shortstop on another club, but the Mariners already have Crawford. Unless the M’s have designs on moving Crawford, then it seems they view Hoerner as a good option to help with their uncertainty at third or perhaps second base.
In terms of salary, Hoerner is going to make $11.5MM next year and $12MM in 2026. That makes him a far better financial fit than Bellinger. Per Jude, the Cubs are looking for MLB-ready help whereas the Mariners would rather surrender prospects. There has been a lot of trade speculation around the Seattle rotation since it’s so strong but the depth is actually not great and president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has said that surrendering a big league starter is “Plan Z”.
NL East Notes: Phillies, Harper, Finnegan, Alcantara
The Phillies are known to be looking for outfield help this winter, though moving Bryce Harper from first base back into the outfield doesn’t appear to be a consideration. Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer wonders if the Phils could possibly re-evaluate this stance, as Lauber feels the first base market (for both free agents and trade possibilities) is much deeper than this winter’s outfield market. Of the top outfielders in free agency, Juan Soto seems likely to be going to one of the other big-market clubs, while Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Santander each have the strikeout or chase rate issues that the Phillies are already looking to correct within their current lineup. Philadelphia did have interest in Hernandez back at the 2023 trade deadline when the slugger was still a member of the Mariners, but Lauber notes that the Phils passed on Hernandez under the similar logic that Hernandez’s power wouldn’t offset his tendency to swing and miss.
Harper’s first full season as a first baseman was a success, as he posted strong defensive numbers and kept up his usual high standards at the plate. These results have understandably left all parties satisfied with just keeping Harper at the cold corner, though Harper has expressed an openness to playing the outfield again and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski didn’t entirely close the door on the possibility (“I can’t say that we’d never do it, but it’s not something that we are thinking of or wanting to do“) when discussing the subject at the GM Meetings last month.
If Harper did return to his old spot in right field, Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas would likely become the Phillies’ new center field platoon, and Nick Castellanos would presumably be shifted over to left field. This arrangement wouldn’t exactly make for the strongest defensive outfield, even if the Phillies tried to balance out the situation by adding a stronger defender at first base. Trading Castellanos to clear space in the outfield might be the ideal outcome, though that is obviously easier said than done considering the two years and $40MM remaining on the veteran’s contract.
More from the NL East…
- Before the Nationals parted ways with Kyle Finnegan, the two parties at least had some talks about a new contract prior to the non-tender deadline, but the Washington Post’s Andrew Golden hears from a source that “the sides were not close to making a deal to avoid arbitration.” Finnegan was projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz to earn $8.6MM in his final year of arb eligibility, as traditional counting stats like saves (Finnegan had 28 saves in 2023 and 38 saves in 2024) tend to boost a reliever’s arbitration salaries by a significant degree, regardless of Finnegan’s otherwise rather shaky secondary metrics. It seems as though the Nationals would’ve been open to retaining the closer at a lower number, but ultimately weren’t comfortable retaining Finnegan and possibly facing a higher salary via arbitration hearing if the Nats couldn’t have potentially traded Finnegan at some later date this offseason.
- Sandy Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery in October 2023, and after over a year of recovery and rehab, the Marlins ace appears to be making good progress towards a return. In a recent appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (link to X), manager Clayton McCullough said he met with Alcantara within the last week and “he looked great, he sounded great, felt like he was really right on track at this point….All signs point to things looking very positive for the start of the season.” The winner of the 2022 NL Cy Young Award, Alcantara threw more innings than any other pitcher in baseball over the 2019-2022 seasons as the anchor of the Marlins’ pitching staff, before that workload seemingly caught up to him late in the 2023 campaign. Since Alcantara is owed at least $36MM over the last two years of his contract, some trade buzz will be inevitable if he looks like his old self at the start of 2025, though the rebuilding Marlins already told Alcantara last summer that they likely weren’t trading him this offseason.
Quick Hits: Snell, Orioles, Brash, Cubs
The Orioles had “legitimate interest” in southpaw Blake Snell before he landed with the Dodgers on a five-year deal that became official earlier today, per a report from Roch Kubatko of MASN. Kubatko notes, however, that it’s unclear how advanced talks between Baltimore and Snell’s camp became before he settled on Los Angeles. Previous reporting indicated that the Orioles could get involved in the Snell sweepstakes, but Kubatko’s report is the first confirming Baltimore’s interest.
As the club looks to either reunite with right-hander Corbin Burnes or replace his production at the top of their rotation following his departure for free agency earlier this month, it’s hardly a surprise to hear that the club took a hard look at Snell while he was available. The two-time Cy Young award winner has been even better than Burnes from a run prevention perspective over the past three years, with a 2.82 ERA and 2.98 FIP in 412 innings. Burnes, meanwhile, lags behind in rate stats with a 3.08 ERA and 3.49 FIP, but his 590 innings of work dwarf Snell in terms of volume. That volume figures to be particularly attractive to an Orioles club that has serious health question marks surrounding a number of its starters, including Kyle Bradish as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery that figures to keep him out of action for at least the first half of 2025.
While Burnes seems likely to remain the Orioles’s top choice in free agency this winter, they’ve also been connected to southpaws Max Fried and Garrett Crochet in free agency and via trade respectively. It seems as though they’re also looking at mid-rotation arms as well, however, as they were recently linked to veteran righty Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi projects to be much less expensive than Burnes and Fried in free agency this winter, but that affordability comes with a much less impactful track record as the 34-year-old has a solid but unremarkable 3.75 ERA and 3.63 FIP across the past five seasons. The Orioles are quite familiar with Eovaldi, of course, as he spent seven seasons in the AL East with the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox from 2015 to 2022.
More tidbits from around the baseball world…
- Mariners fans got an encouraging update on the status of right-hander Matt Brash recently, as Adam Jude of The Seattle Times reported earlier this week that the right-hander is ahead of schedule as he rehabs from his early May Tommy John surgery. Per Jude, the Mariners are “optimistic” that he could return to the club’s bullpen by the end of April this coming season, just under a year after he first went under the knife. Brash’s return would surely be a major boost for Seattle, as he established himself as one of the most exciting young arms in the club’s arsenal during a breakout 2023 campaign. After being moved to the bullpen partway through the 2022 season, Brash’s first full campaign as a reliever saw him lead the majors with 78 appearances while posting an excellent 3.06 ERA with an even better 2.26 FIP. He struck out an eye-popping 34.7% of batters faced that year, and if he can post numbers anything like that in 2025 he’ll be a phenomenal complement to closer Andres Munoz at the back of the Mariners bullpen next year.
- The Cubs have yet to announce their finalized coaching staff for the 2025 season, but Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reported earlier this week that at least one more vacancy has been filled. After assistant pitching coach Daniel Moskos departed the organization to become the Marlins’ pitching coach, the club is promoting internally to replace Moskos by hiring Casey Jacobson. Jacobson has been in the Cubs organization since October 2019 and has spent the past two years as the senior coordinator of pitching development for the club in the minor leagues. Now, he’ll get the opportunity to work on a big league coaching staff for the first time in his career with a number of young arms such as Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, and Porter Hodge expected to play roles for Chicago next year.
NL Central Notes: Pirates, Brown, Cardinals
The Pirates are making some changes to their front office, per a report from MLB.com’s Alex Stumpf. Stumpf notes that director of coaching and player development John Baker is moving into a new role with the club that will see him oversee the club’s performance team. While the move has not been announced by the club to this point, Stumpf adds that the search for a new farm director is already underway as Baker vacates the position.
A former player who spent parts of seven seasons in the big leagues, Baker retired from his playing career in 2015 and caught on with the Cubs in their front office that offseason as a special assistant. Baker eventually stepped into the role of mental skills coordinator with Chicago and remained in that role with the club until he departed for Pittsburgh during the 2020-21 offseason to take on his aforementioned role as director of coaching and player development. As Stumpf notes, the Pirates began implementing more individualized development plans for their players under Baker’s leadership.
With Baker now changing roles, the Pirates will need to fill both the farm director role. As Stumpf notes, that’s not the only high-level role that’s as of yet unfilled in Pittsburgh as the club will also need to hire a new director of pro scouting after moving him to a different, unspecified role within baseball operations. Those yet-to-be-named farm and pro scouting directors will join a wave of personnel hires by the Pirates this winter that already includes international scouting director Max Kwan, VP of research and development Kevin Tenenbaum, hitting coach Matt Hague, and assistant pitching coach Brent Strom.
More notes from around the NL Central…
- Cubs fans received some good news yesterday when Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reported that right-hander Ben Brown has been cleared for a normal throwing program this offseason. The 25-year-old was acquired by the club at the 2022 trade deadline in the deal that sent right-hander David Robertson to Philadelphia but didn’t make his big league debut until this year. The youngster looked quite good for the Cubs early in the season with a 3.58 ERA and 3.11 FIP in 55 1/3 innings of work while swinging between the rotation and bullpen. He struck out 28.8% of opponents faced against a walk rate of 8.6% but saw is time in the majors cut short by a stress reaction in his neck that sidelined him for the remainder of the season. Chicago reportedly plans to add a starting pitcher to the rotation alongside Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, and Jameson Taillon this winter, which could leave Brown to either compete with Javier Assad and Jordan Wicks for the fifth spot in the rotation this spring or else spend the year in the bullpen.
- The Cardinals are hiring Matt Pierpont as their director of pitching, as Pierpoint himself noted on X (h/t to Adam Jude of The Seattle Times). Pierpont, 33, pitched in the minor leagues for seven seasons before catching on with the Mariners as a coach prior to the 2021 season. Since then, he’s risen within the organization to the role of pitching coordinator. Now, he’s been promoted again as he moves on to St. Louis, where he’ll be tasked with working to improve the club’s internal pitching options. Andre Pallante and Sem Robberse are among the young pitchers at or near the major leagues, while top prospect Tink Hence dominated the Double-A level and could also look to make his big league debut at some point in 2025.