AL Notes: Gausman, Forst, Athletics, Olson, Refsnyder
Kevin Gausman won’t start tomorrow’s game against the Mariners, as the Blue Jays righty is still recovering from a bone bruise on his right ankle. Gausman hasn’t pitched since suffering the injury on July 2, but Jays manager Charlie Montoyo told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi and other reporters that the team is hoping Gausman can return to the mound on Tuesday when the Blue Jays host the Phillies.
Toronto’s struggling rotation hasn’t been helped by Gausman’s absence, as the Jays’ lack of depth was already being stretched by a recent doubleheader against the Rays, and Ross Stripling‘s move to the rotation to replace the injured Hyun Jin Ryu. Since June 14, the Blue Jays have a 9-16 record, and their pitchers have a cumulative 5.49 ERA — the second-highest total of any team in baseball in that stretch. Rotation help certainly seems like the Jays’ top priority heading into the trade deadline, but in the short term, the club is just trying to hang onto its status as a wild card team.
More from around the American League…
- In a wide-ranging interview with The Athletic’s Melissa Lockard, A’s general manager David Forst discussed his team’s struggles, the young talent on the roster and in the farm system, the pitching development team, and many other topics. Forst also noted how the continued uncertainty over the Athletics‘ future in Oakland impacts long-term planning, saying “this is sort of almost cliché at this point, but it’s hard, without a ballpark direction and timeline, to really make a plan on what the next few years look like. Even internally, it’s hard to know what the team will look like the next couple of years.”
- Forst also talked some trade possibilities both in the future and in the past, noting that of all the Athletics‘ moves during the winter, the deal that sent Matt Olson to the Braves “was the one that we had most discussed prior to the lockout.” Most of the other notable deals were largely negotiated post-lockout, however, leaving the A’s with little time to both remake their roster and bring in new talent. “That’s why I sort of say there weren’t enough days to make those deals — which again, we knew we were gonna have to do — and also find ways…to get the current team to the level that we’ve sort of become accustomed to,” Forst said. No such time crunch exists with the upcoming trade deadline, and to that end, Forst (unsurprisingly) said “there’s no panic” about moving Frankie Montas prior to August 2. “We didn’t trade him in Spring Training because there wasn’t a trade that made sense for us. That will continue to be the case. Whether it’s at the deadline or next offseason or whatever, there’s not a feeling at all that in the next 30 days we have to trade Frankie Montas.”
- Rob Refsnyder has been an unexpected hero for the Red Sox, posting a .931 OPS over 69 plate appearances since Boston selected his contract on June 10. Refsnyder inked a minor league deal with the Sox just prior to the lockout, and he also drew interest from the Yankees during the offseason, according to Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (hat tip to MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch). It would’ve been something of a reunion for Refsnyder in the Bronx, as he was a fifth-round draft pick for the Yankees back in 2012, and he was a well-regarded prospect during his time in New York’s farm system. However, Refsnyder didn’t hit much in limited playing time in 2015-17, and a trade to the Blue Jays in 2017 kicked off a journeyman stretch for the utilityman — the Red Sox are the ninth different organization of Refsnyder’s career.
Rays Acquire Christian Bethancourt
Christian Bethancourt said his goodbyes to his Oakland teammates today, per Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). The A’s traded Bethancourt to the Rays in exchange for a pair of minor leaguers, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). In exchange for Bethancourt, the Rays sent outfielder Cal Stevenson and right-hander Christian Fernandez to Oakland, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). Both teams have announced the deal.
Bethancourt, 30, made it back to the Majors for the first time since 2017. His career began, however, all the way back in 2013 with the Braves. Atlanta eventually traded him to the Padres, where he played from 2016-2017. To that point in his career, Bethancourt owned a .222/.252/.316 line across 489 plate appearances. Since then, Bethancourt has been stuck in Triple-A – with the Brewers in 2018 and the Pirates in 2021.
This season, Bethancourt has burst back onto the scene for an Oakland club that’s largely treading water. The right-handed hitter has slashed .249/.298/.385 in 182 plate appearances while catching and playing first base. He’s also spent ten games as the designated hitter.
For the Rays, they’re getting a versatile defender who can handle the catching spot. Tampa loves defensive versatility, and Bethancourt’s ability to move around the diamond will at least make it possible to keep three catchers on the roster when Mike Zunino returns from injury.
Of course, the Rays haven’t gotten much offense from any catcher on the roster. Zunino registered a measly 43 wRC+ at the dish before going on the injured list, with backup Rene Pinto posting a 27 wRC+ in 51 plate appearances and Francisco Mejia topping the group with a 74 wRC+. Bethancourt’s 99 wRC+ improves upon that lot, but more than that, he gives the Rays some depth at a position where it was previously lacking.
The Rays were thought to have some interest in Willson Contreras, perhaps the top trade available trade target on the market, though The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal noted a reticence on Tampa’s part to pay high-end prospects for a rental like Contreras. Acquiring Bethancourt doesn’t necessarily take Tampa out of the running for Contreras, but it gives them plenty of leverage in later negotiations.
In many ways, Bethancourt represents a sort of everyman version of Contreras. He’s an offensive upgrade who bats right-handed and can move around the diamond when needed. To his advantage, Bethancourt doesn’t carry the financial obligations that Contreras does, perhaps giving Tampa another reason to consummate this deal now. By making the move today, the Rays give themselves a month to reassess their situation and decide if a bigger splash is necessary.
The Rays designated David McKay for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster for Bethancourt. After spending most of the spring with the Rays, McKay latched on with the Yankees to start the season. The Rays claimed him off waivers, but he has spent most of the season in Triple-A. He’ll again now be exposed to waivers.
As for Oakland, they’ll pick up a pair of minor leaguers for a veteran that probably didn’t fit on their next contender. MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos provides this quote from manager Mark Kotsay, who said, “Christian did a great job while he was here. It’s tough trading a player who has had an impact on and off the field. He’s been a leader in that clubhouse. .. I’m happy for him that he’s going to a team in contention and in need of catching.” Kotsay still has two catchers on the roster in Sean Murphy and Stephen Vogt.
For Oakland, neither player coming back is a top prospect, but that doesn’t mean they have no future in the bigs. Besides, considering Oakland’s minimal investment in Bethancourt, two minor leaguers is a solid return for the utility catcher.
Stevenson isn’t a top prospect, but he’s a fast-enough outfielder whose ability to play centerfield provides a cleaner path to the Majors than most, despite already being 25 years old. Originally a 10th-round draft choice by the Toronto Blue Jays, Stevenson has spent the past two seasons in the Rays farm system. In Triple-A this year, the southpaw has hit .265/.376/.353 in 203 plate appearances.
Fernandez was signed originally by the Rays out of Venezuela back in 2016. The 22-year-old registered a 2.79 ERA across 58 innings for the Single-A Charleston RiverDogs. He will go to High-A where he will join the Lansing rotation.
Frankie Montas To Miss Next Start Due To Shoulder Inflammation
Athletics ace Frankie Montas, who experienced a worrying velocity drop over the weekend, underwent an MRI that revealed shoulder inflammation, team trainer Nick Paparesta announced to reporters Wednesday (Twitter link via Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle). He’ll receive a cortisone injection and miss his next start, but there’s no further timeline on his absence for now. Notably, the A’s have not yet placed Montas on the injured list, and Paparesta noted that the MRI did not show any structural damage in Montas’ shoulder.
While Montas has avoided the injured list for the time being, it’s still a concerning development for a pitcher who, along with Reds righty Luis Castillo, is widely viewed as one of the prizes of this summer’s trade market. The A’s tore down the bulk of their core over the winter, shipping Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Chris Bassitt and Sean Manaea out in a series of cost-cutting trades that also built up what had become an increasingly thin farm system.
The expectation was that Montas would follow his teammates out the door, but the A’s never found a return they deemed in line with what was reportedly a sky-high asking price. He ultimately stayed put, started for the A’s on Opening Day, and has been the subject of trade speculation throughout the season.
Today’s announcement obviously doesn’t preclude the possibility of a trade, but any recent shoulder issue is going to make interested teams somewhat leery, even if they’ll be able to review all of Montas’ medical records first-hand. And, of course, if the current shoulder ailment is a portent for an absence of any real note, the A’s will likely lose the opportunity to extract peak value a player who was very arguably their most marketable trade chip even dating back to the offseason.
Montas is controlled through the 2023 season via arbitration, meaning they’d have the entire 2022-23 offseason to try again, assuming the right-hander is healthy at that point. They’d also have the first half of the 2023 campaign. That said, the trade value of a healthy Montas won’t ever be higher than it is right now, and if the A’s are unable to move him due to injury, they’ll no doubt be left feeling as though they overplayed their hand.
The 29-year-old Montas has been every bit as good this season as he was in a breakout 2021 showing, pitching to a 3.26 ERA over 17 starts — a total of 96 2/3 innings. The righty’s 25.8% strikeout rate is just barely south of last year’s 26.6% strikeout rate — strikeouts are down league-wide, on the whole — and he’s made improvements in his walk rate (6.2% compared to last year’s 7.3%), ground-ball rate (47.1% to 42.3%), average exit velocity (88.6 mph to 89.3 mph) and hard-hit rate (36.6% to 42.2%). Montas is making $5MM this year and will be eligible for arbitration once more this winter before reaching free agency following the 2023 campaign.
Injury Notes: Suarez, Soto, Montas
The Phillies have placed starter Ranger Suarez on the 15-day injured list because of lower back spasms, retroactive to June 30, per the club. The Phillies had boasted one of the healthier rotations this season before losing both Suarez and Zach Eflin to the injured list this week. A corresponding roster move will likely be made before Tuesday’s game against the Nationals. The Phillies have an off day tomorrow to set up their rotation. In other injury news…
- Juan Soto left today’s Nationals’ game with an apparent hamstring injury. It was later revealed to be tightness in Soto’s left calf that prompted his departure. He will have an MRI and be re-evaluated tomorrow, per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). Obviously, it would be crushing for the Nationals to lose Soto for any amount of time. Even with him, the Nats don’t have much hope for postseason play, but Soto remains the best and brightest attraction at Nats Park.
- Athletics starter Frankie Montas left today’s start early after seeing a drop in velocity, per MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos. Montas’ heater was 2.4 mph slower than usual, while his sinker was 2.7 mph slower on average, notes Gallegos. The initial diagnosis is inflammation, reports Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle, but they will need more time to evaluate. Not only is Montas Oakland’s nominal ace, but he’s been one of the more sought-after arms when it comes to the August 2nd trade deadline. A significant arm injury would obviously derail any plans to use the righty as a trade chip.
A’s Designate Adam Kolarek, Option Cristian Pache
The A’s announced a series of roster moves before tonight’s game in Seattle. Right-hander Adrián Martínez and infielder Vimael Machin have been promoted from Triple-A Las Vegas, as previously reported. Oakland also reinstated outfielder Skye Bolt from the 60-day injured list, placed Jed Lowrie on the 10-day IL due to a left shoulder sprain, and optioned center fielder Cristian Pache and starter Adam Oller to Triple-A. Bolt’s activation required a 40-man roster spot, which has been created by designating reliever Adam Kolarek for assignment.
Kolarek has spent the past couple seasons in Oakland. The A’s acquired him from the Dodgers in February 2021, sending infielder Sheldon Neuse the other way. (Oakland has since reacquired Neuse via waivers). Kolarek has bounced on and off the active roster since that point, making 27 combined appearances. He was tagged for ten runs in nine innings last season, and it’s been a similar struggle thus far in 2022.
Through 17 2/3 innings, the southpaw has posted a 4.58 ERA. Kolarek has struck out only 11.4% of batters faced on a 4.7% swinging strike rate, and he’s walked a personal-high 10.1% of opponents. Kolarek has never missed many bats, but he’s seen his average fastball drop from the 91-92 MPH range down to 88.1 MPH this year. The 33-year-old has also allowed eight runs over 12 2/3 frames with Las Vegas during his optional stints.
Those struggles led the A’s to move on, but Kolarek could still hold some appeal to other clubs. The sidearmer has typically been excellent at handling left-handed opponents. For his career, he’s held southpaws to a pitiful .190/.243/.260 line over 277 plate appearances. Right-handers have teed off at a .311/.383/.490 clip, but that kind of situational dominance made him a productive bullpen option in Los Angeles and Tampa Bay earlier in his career. Kolarek also routinely generates ground-balls at a 60% clip or better, and that’s been the case even as his velocity and swing-and-miss have taken a step back in Oakland.
While Kolarek’s time in the organization could be coming to an end, the A’s are surely hopeful Pache will yet emerge as a member of the long-term core. The 23-year-old was one of four players (arguably the headliner) of the Spring Training return from the Braves for Matt Olson. He’s gone on to start 60 of the team’s 72 games in center field, but his first season in green and gold has been a disappointment.
Pache carries just a .159/.203/.224 line across 214 plate appearances. He’s collected only eight extra-base hits while walking at a subpar 5.1% rate and striking out 26.2% of the time. Of the 206 MLB hitters with at least 200 trips to the plate, Pache ranks last with a 24 wRC+ (suggesting he’s been 76 percentage points worse than the league average batter). The non-competitive A’s continued to give him opportunities to get on track offensively, but his woes have spiraled of late. Dating back to the start of June, he’s collected only six hits and three walks over 19 games.
Of course, Pache has long been a glove-first player. He drew top prospect attention during his time in the Atlanta system based largely on the strength of his defense, which most evaluators suggested could be among the league’s best. Pache has lived up to that reputation early in his MLB days. He ranks fourth among outfielders in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric this season, checking in seven plays better than par. That kind of ability could make Pache a perennial Gold Glove candidate, but he’ll need to hit far better than he has this season if he’s to earn everyday run in the majors.
The Braves had optioned Pache during both the 2020 and ’21 campaigns. Assuming he spends 20+ days in the minors this year, he’ll exhaust his third and final option year. That means the A’s will need to keep him on the active roster next season, assuming they don’t want to make him available to other teams. Needless to say, organizational higher-ups will hope that this latest reboot against upper minors arms will help him take a step forward at the plate. Pache owns a more serviceable .267/.331/.414 line through 458 Triple-A plate appearances; the A’s would be thrilled if he could come anywhere close to that kind of production in the majors given his defensive acumen.
How quickly Pache returns to the big leagues will depend in large part on how he hits in Las Vegas. Getting back at some point this season would have important service time repercussions, as he’s just shy of reaching a full year of big league service. Pache entered the 2022 campaign with 79 days. Players reach a full service year upon accruing 172 days on an MLB roster or injured list, meaning he needs 93 days this season to surpass the one-year mark. Pache has tallied around 84 days in the majors to this point, so he needs about a week and a half more time in the big leagues in 2022 to keep on track towards a post-2027 free agent trajectory.
While Pache tries to find his footing, the A’s figure to turn center field over to Bolt. The 28-year-old hasn’t played in the big leagues this season due to an oblique strain, but he’ll get the nod in center tonight. Bolt has only 37 games of MLB experience under his belt, but he’s out of options and has to remain on the active roster or be designated for assignment now that he’s healthy.
Athletics To Select Vimael Machin
The A’s are set to select the contract of infielder Vimael Machin from Triple-A Las Vegas, reports Martin Gallegos of MLB.com (Twitter link). He and right-hander Adrian Martinez are both on their way up from Triple-A Las Vegas. Martinez, already on the 40-man roster, is expected to start today’s game for Oakland. The A’s will need to make a pair of corresponding 26-man roster moves, but they already have an open 40-man spot to accommodate Machin’s selection.
Now 28 years old, Machin was the Athletics’ selection in the 2019 Rule 5 Draft (coming out of the Cubs organization). The versatile infielder stuck on the A’s roster through the shortened 2020 season, hitting just .206/.296/.238 in 71 plate appearances. He saw more limited MLB action in 2021 when he batted .125/.200/.125 in 37 trips to the plate, and the team was able to pass him through outright waivers this past April, thus removing him from the 40-man roster.
Machin has always been a strong hitter in Triple-A, and this year has been no exception. Through 292 plate appearances, he’s turned in a .324/.401/.457 batting line (120 wRC+) with four homers, 16 doubles and three triples — all while walking more often than he’s struck out (11.3% to 10.3%). He’s played all four infield positions in Las Vegas this season — albeit only one game at first base — and has also done so in the Majors.
It’s easy to take a look at Machin’s big league numbers and completely write him off, but he’s only had 108 plate appearances in the Majors and it’s hard not to be intrigued by his .307/.400/.468 output in 741 Triple-A plate appearances. At the very least, Machin has the potential to be a bat-first utilityman.
As for the 25-year-old Martinez, he’s one of two players the A’s received from the Padres in the trade that sent Sean Manaea to San Diego. Martinez made his MLB debut earlier this season and tossed 5 1/3 shutout frames in a no-decision over the Tigers. (Oakland ultimately won the game.)
Martinez has had a rockier go of it in Triple-A this year, though he’s been far better after a rough month of April that saw him yield 15 runs in 14 1/3 innings. Overall, Martinez has a 5.63 ERA in 64 innings, but that’s come in an overwhelmingly hitter-friendly setting. His 26.4% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and 47.4% ground-ball rate are all more encouraging. With two minor league option years remaining beyond the current season, he ought to have ample opportunity to establish himself as a possible regular in the Oakland rotation over the next few seasons — particularly with Daulton Jefferies likely done for the season and Frankie Montas quite likely to be traded at some point in the next five weeks.
A’s Designate Matt Davidson For Assignment
The A’s announced they’ve designated infielder Matt Davidson for assignment. Oakland also placed Dany Jiménez on the 15-day injured list, put Sam Moll on the COVID-19 list, and recalled four players: Nick Allen, Sheldon Neuse, Domingo Tapia and Kirby Snead.
Oakland didn’t need to create a 40-man roster spot for any of Allen, Neuse, Tapia or Snead. Davidson, though, is out of minor league option years. The A’s were thus left with the decision to keep him on the big league roster or take him off the 40-man entirely. With Davidson collecting just four hits while striking out ten times in eight games in an Oakland uniform, the club will turn back to Neuse and Allen in the infield at his expense.
Davidson has made 13 total big league appearances this year, as he also suited up five times with the D-Backs. He’s managed just a .147/.216/.324 showing against MLB arms, but the right-handed hitter has torn the cover off the ball in Triple-A. Between Arizona’s and Oakland’s top affiliates, Davidson owns a .306/.389/.711 line with 15 home runs in only 139 trips to the plate.
The extreme hitter-friendly nature of the Pacific Coast League no doubt has propped up those numbers, but Davidson has also flashed some power potential over parts of six MLB seasons. He’s a career .220/.290/.430 hitter in a bit more than 1100 plate appearances. Davidson’s .209 ISO (slugging minus batting average) is strong, but his huge strikeout totals and low walk rates have led to persistent issues reaching base.
Oakland will have a week to trade Davidson or run him through waivers. The latter outcome seems likelier given his lack of recent success against big league pitching. The 31-year-old has already cleared waivers once this season. He elected free agency last time around, and he’d have the right to do so again if he goes unclaimed.
Jiménez hits the IL with a shoulder strain; his placement is retroactive to June 19. Signed to a minor league contract over the winter, the righty has surprisingly jumped into a high-leverage role for manager Mark Kotsay. Jiménez has collected the first 11 saves of his career, pitching to a 4.38 ERA through 24 2/3 innings. He hadn’t allowed an earned run through the end of April, but Jiménez has been tagged for 12 runs (all earned) in 15 2/3 frames going back to the beginning of May.
AL Notes: Moncada, Blue Jays, Verlander, Athletics
Yoan Moncada left tonight’s game due to right hamstring tightness, an injury seemingly suffered when Moncada was running out a grounder in the top of the second inning. Moncada returned to play third base in the bottom half of the frame but was replaced in the field by Josh Harrison in the next inning.
More will be known about Moncada’s status after further tests take place, but another injury is the last thing Moncada and the White Sox need. An oblique strain suffered near the end of Spring Training kept Moncada from playing until May 9, and he is hitting a mere .179/.230/.292 over his first 113 plate appearances. Should Moncada need to miss time, the Sox would at least have a ready replacement in the hot-hitting Jake Burger, and Danny Mendick could also find more playing time once Tim Anderson returns from the IL next week and regains his normal shortstop position. However, a Moncada injury would represent yet another setback for a White Sox club that hasn’t been able to play with its ideal first-choice lineup all season.
More from around the American League…
- The Blue Jays were known to have interest in Justin Verlander last winter, and as Verlander tells ESPN’s Jeff Passan, it seems as though Toronto was Verlander’s second choice before he ultimately rejoined the Astros on a two-year, $50MM contract. The Jays “were very proactive to the point that when I signed with Houston, I made sure to let them know that I appreciated it all,” Verlander said, noting that former teammate George Springer pushed hard to try and recruit him. “Ultimately, when it came down to it, Houston had the same offer. It was all kind of ballpark between them and Toronto, and New York [the Yankees) was kind of always just a step behind.” With Verlander off the board, the Blue Jays instead signed Kevin Gausman and Yusei Kikuchi to augment the rotation. Verlander also added that the Yankees were “kind of always just a step behind” those top suitors — reports surfaced in November that the Yankees were willing to offer Verlander $25MM over one year, but weren’t willing to add a second season to the contract.
- The new collective bargaining agreement temporarily restored the Athletics‘ status as a revenue-sharing recipient, though that status is dependent on whether or not the A’s can finally secure a new ballpark by January 15, 2024 (in Oakland or any other city). Even with these caveats in place, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that some owners weren’t pleased that the A’s were again receiving revenue-sharing funds, especially given that the A’s then slashed their payroll by moving several notable players after the lockout. “The idea of revenue sharing is not to make money, it’s to field a competitive team,” one owner told Heyman. “That money is supposed to go toward player salaries. [The A’s] took the money and put it in their pocket.”
Marlins “Pushing Hard” For Ramon Laureano
The Marlins have hung around baseball’s competitive landscape the last couple of seasons, buoyed by a dynamic young starting rotation. Their offense, however, consistently underwhelms. Thus far in 2022, however, neither the pitching nor the offense has been able to escape the torpid middle. The Marlins are tied for 13th overall in the Majors with a 3.85 team ERA, and they are similarly tied for 13th overall on the offensive end with a 104 wRC+.
It still likely wouldn’t surprise anyone to hear they might be looking for bats. The latest scuttlebutt has the Marlins “pushing hard” for outfielder Ramon Laureano, according to Peter Gammons (via Twitter). The irony, of course, is that center field has been a particular need for the Fish since dealing Starling Marte to the A’s last season. Marte now plays for the rival Mets, and the A’s are in a position to deal.
The Marlins invested heavily in their outfield this offseason, adding both Jorge Soler and Avisail Garcia to young trade acquisitions Jesus Sanchez and Bryan De La Cruz. But they weren’t able to find their long-term answer in center. Sanchez has held his own (93 wRC+, -1 DRS, 0.5 fWAR), but Laureano certainly brings a panache to outfield glove work that the Marlins may find appealing. Laureano has traditionally rated well defensively, and he doesn’t want for offensive firepower either, owning a career 117 wRC+ over 1,392 career plate appearances.
Of course, the A’s have to be willing to give him up as well. At 21-43 on the year, Oakland is firmly in a step-back year, and given their history, anyone is likely to be on the table, particularly an almost-28-year-old veteran like Laureano. GM David Forst has gone on record saying that no one is off-limits on the roster, writes Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle. Of course, that’s long been the company line for the A’s, particularly when they enter a sell-off period, as they did this past winter.
With true two-way center fielders being relatively tough to come by these days, however, Laureano figures to be a popular target. The A’s, for their part, may have found his successor in Cristian Pache, though Pache’s 27 wRC+ practically begs the A’s to reconsider. Laureano is still firmly in his prime, and with two more seasons of team control beyond this year, the A’s should feel no particular pressure to move him.
So while the Marlins may very well do their due diligence on Laureano, the A’s have resisted the temptation to deal him thus far. If they do ultimately decide that Laureano adds more long-term value as a trade asset than as their everyday right fielder (and Pache insurance), they can likely find more suitors beyond the Marlins. The Brewers, Padres, Phillies, Red Sox, and Dodgers join the Marlins as bottom-10 teams in terms of fWAR production from their center fielders, while the Guardians, Astros, and Rays land in the bottom 10 by wRC+. That’s no shortage of competitive clubs with a need in the grass.
Speculatively speaking, the Phillies may present the biggest challenger to the Marlins in terms of their interest. Philadelphia, like the Marlins, has been active in their search for a long-term center fielder, and they don’t appear to have that guy in their pipeline. We know the Phillies are doing what they can to compete, and as of right now, they’re doing a better job than the Marlins in that regard – they sit three games ahead of the Marlins in the standings, though still 8.5 games behind the division-leading Mets.
Of course, whether or not the Phillies have the prospects to properly woo Oakland is another question entirely. The Marlins have long been touted for their depth of young starting pitching, and if they decide to deal from that pool, Laureano may be the type of piece they would target. For now, however, the decision is still Oakland’s to make.
The Other Potential Trade Candidate In The Athletics’ Rotation
For much of the offseason, all talk on the Athletics centered on where the likes of Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas would head once the trade market picked up. We got answers to four of those five, with only Montas surviving the offseason teardown. That’s expected to be temporary, as Montas stands out as one of the most prominent trade targets on the summer market. Arguably the best arm who’ll be available this summer, Montas will dominate headlines over the next seven weeks. However, while Montas is understandably the highest-profile trade target on the Oakland roster, he’s not the only starter on whom the A’s will receive trade interest.
Fans would be forgiven if Paul Blackburn isn’t someone who’s been on their radar — or even if Blackburn is entirely unfamiliar. The 28-year-old right-hander came into the 2022 season with a 5.74 ERA in 138 career innings at the MLB level. He’d accrued two years of big league service already, but much of that was time spent on the injured list. Blackburn missed time in 2018 with a forearm strain and then with a tendon issue in his elbow (lateral epicondylitis). In his two years of service, he’s appeared in just 30 total games — 27 of them starts.
Blackburn, however, has come out of the gate strong so far in 2022. His 66 1/3 innings already represent a career-high in the big leagues, though he’s surpassed 140 total frames in a season several times when combining his Triple-A and Major League work, so workload management shouldn’t be a major concern. So far, in 12 starts, the former No. 56 overall draft pick (Cubs, 2012) has pitched to a sterling 2.31 ERA. Blackburn doesn’t miss many bats, evidenced by a sub-par 17.9% strikeout rate, but he’s also issued walks to just 5.7% of his opponents and induced grounders at an excellent 51.3% clip.
There’s surely some degree of good fortune at play for Blackburn, who’s currently benefiting from a .253 average on balls in play, an 80.5% strand rate and a tiny 6.0% homer-to-flyball ratio. Even with some expected regression on those marks, ERA alternatives like FIP (3.13), xFIP (3.64) and SIERA (3.91) all feel there’s some legitimacy to the idea that Blackburn has pitched like a capable mid-rotation starter thus far.
Statcast largely agrees, crediting Blackburn with a 3.36 “expected” ERA based on his lack of free passes and the generally poor quality of contact his opponents make. Hitters have posted an average exit velocity of just 87.4 mph against Blackburn (league average is 88.8 mph), and just 3.6% (seven total) of the balls hit against him have been considered “barrels” by Statcast — less than half the league average (7.7%).
It’s tempting to assume that Oakland’s cavernous home park has played a significant role in suppressing Blackburn’s ERA, and perhaps it has to an extent, but it’s not clearly reflected in his home/road splits. Blackburn’s two “worst” starts of the season (four runs apiece) have come at the Coliseum, in fact, and he’s sporting a 4.39 ERA at home against a nearly spotless 0.91 ERA in 39 2/3 innings on the road this season. Oakland’s spacious dimensions help any pitcher on the mound from time to time, but Blackburn isn’t the frequently seen case of a pitcher who excels at the Coliseum and is regularly hit hard on the road.
Blackburn doesn’t have overpowering stuff by any stretch of the imagination, but it’s at least worth pointing out that he’s made some velocity gains and altered his pitch usage so far in 2022, which certainly seems to have contributed to his improved results. The right-hander’s sinker sat at 90.4 mph from 2017-20 before climbing to an average of 91 mph in 2021, and it’s now up to 91.9 mph so far in 2022.
Blackburn is also throwing his curveball at a career-high 17.8% rate — and getting outstanding results. He’s thrown 172 curves this season (already a career high) and finished 44 plate appearances with the pitch; opponents have just three hits (all doubles) and 19 strikeouts (43.2%) in those 44 plate appearances. FanGraphs’ run values credit Blackburn with the fifth-most valuable hook in MLB this year (min. 50 innings pitched), trailing only Kyle Wright, Shane McClanahan, Corbin Burnes and Framber Valdez. Among pitchers in that subset who actually throw a curveball regularly, Blackburn’s has been the most valuable on a strictly per-pitch basis.
There’s an easy case to be made for the A’s simply hanging onto Blackburn even if (or when) they trade Montas. While both are controllable beyond the current season, Montas is a free agent after the 2023 campaign and will see his $5MM salary jump close to $10MM next year. His trade value won’t ever be higher than it is over the next few weeks. Blackburn, however, is controlled for three more years beyond the current campaign. The A’s may well decide that’s enough value to hang onto him — particularly if the offers aren’t all that aggressive given the right-hander’s lack of track record prior to the 2022 season.
At the same time, money was the general driving force behind Oakland’s offseason teardown, which stripped the payroll to just under $50MM — second-lowest in all of Major League Baseball ahead of only the rebuilding Orioles. The A’s don’t have a single guaranteed contract on the books for 2023, so payroll should be less of a concern than ever, but Blackburn will reach arbitration for the first time this winter and see his salary jump from its current $710K to somewhere north of $2MM. Oakland will have to spend at least some money on a few players, and Blackburn seems like a solid, affordable option to plug into the rotation at least for the next couple seasons. There’s also a bit of “found money” appeal to the idea of getting a potentially decent return for a starting pitcher who cleared waivers in Feb. 2021 and was barely on the big league radar prior to the 2022 season
It’s unlikely that the A’s will aggressively shop Blackburn, but controllable pitching is the most coveted resource at the trade deadline, so teams will at least inquire about the right-hander’s availability. And the A’s, in the midst of their most aggressive step-back in years, aren’t likely to take any player off the table unless they can control him for five or six more years. That’ll likely lead to some conversations about Blackburn and perhaps about lefty Cole Irvin as well — though Irvin is controllable for an extra year over Blackburn and has some more questionable secondary marks to go along with rather glaring home/road splits. Blackburn, of course, isn’t the ace that his rudimentary ERA currently suggests, but contending clubs need capable innings to round out the middle or back-end of their rotation as well, and he certainly appears capable of filling that role for the foreseeable future.