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Brayan Bello To Begin Season On Injured List

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March 11: Bello will indeed begin the season on the 15-day IL, Cora announced this morning (via MassLive’s Sean McAdam). He’ll continue building arm strength with an eye toward an early April return.

March 8: Red Sox starter Brayan Bello has not yet pitched a game this spring, as shoulder soreness has kept him on the shelf. Last weekend, the young right-hander expressed optimism that he would still be able to make the Opening Day roster, telling reporters (including MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith) that he was “right on track” as long as he could continue with the rehab work he was doing.

Today, however, Rob Bradford of WEEI reports that Bello looks “increasingly” unlikely to break camp with the Red Sox. According to manager Alex Cora, the righty is making good progress but remains behind schedule. At this point, it’s hardly surprising that Bello could start the season on the IL. Opening Day is less than three weeks away, and he has not seen any game action in spring training.

In three MLB seasons, Bello has not yet lived up to his top prospect billing. Still, he has pitched like a capable back-end starter, putting up a 4.42 ERA and 4.14 SIERA over 71 games (69 starts). He has averaged just over 5 1/3 innings per start and just over 2.1 FanGraphs WAR per 162 innings pitched. The Red Sox would surely be happy if Bello could give them exactly that in 2025, but he still has the potential to be even better. He won’t turn 26 until May, and his upside is undeniable. He leads with a 95.7 mph sinker, helping him induce groundballs at a high rate, while his slider and changeup give him two good weapons for generating whiffs. In 2022, the prospect evaluators at Baseball America, FanGraphs, and The Athletic all described him as a potential mid-rotation arm.

If Bello does indeed begin the season on the IL, MLB.com’s Ian Browne infers that either Richard Fitts or Quinn Priester could fill in as Boston’s number five starter. The winner of that battle would slot in behind Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, Walker Buehler, and Lucas Giolito. Kutter Crawford should provide rotation depth at some point in 2025, but he is nursing a knee injury and is further behind than Bello this spring. Cooper Criswell is another arm on the 40-man with starting experience, but he seems to be lower down the depth chart than Fitts and Priester, both of whom have seen better results (albeit in a minuscule sample size) this spring.

The error bars are wide for the Red Sox’s rotation in 2025. If the most important arms stay healthy, Boston could have one of the best rotations in the sport. On the other hand, almost every starter the Red Sox have – including Crochet, Buehler, Giolito, and Patrick Sandoval – comes with some degree of injury risk. Bello has stayed relatively healthy throughout his career. He has spent time on the IL in each of his first three seasons, but none of those IL stints lasted longer than three weeks. If Bello needs to miss time, the Red Sox will hope that trend of brief IL stints continues in 2025.

Gerrit Cole To Have Tommy John Surgery

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The Yankees have announced that ace Gerrit Cole will undergo Tommy John surgery on Tuesday. Dr. Neal ElAttrache will perform the procedure. The team will provide further updates following the surgery, but there is no doubt that the 2023 AL Cy Young winner will miss the entire 2025 season.

Cole, 34, went for diagnostic tests on his elbow last week. He told reporters he was “concerned” by the results of the initial testing but expressed some hope that a second opinion could assuage the worst of his concerns. Unfortunately, Cole’s appointment today with Dr. ElAttrache only confirmed that the right-hander needs Tommy John to repair a torn UCL in his pitching arm.

This is a crushing blow to the reigning AL champions. The typical recovery timeline for Tommy John surgery is roughly 12-18 months. New York survived without Cole for just under three months last season when elbow inflammation kept him out until mid-June. This year, the Yankees will have to get by without their number one starter at all. They must be glad they won the bidding war to sign Max Fried this offseason, inking the two-time All-Star to an eight-year, $218MM deal. The southpaw will now lead a rotation that also features Carlos Rodón and Clarke Schmidt. Rounding out the starting five to begin the year will likely be Marcus Stroman (whom the Yankees are surely glad they didn’t trade earlier this offseason) and top pitching prospect Will Warren. Last year’s AL Rookie of the Year, Luis Gil, will miss the beginning of the year with a lat strain but will hopefully return sometime in June. Non-roster invitee  Carlos Carrasco is another arm who could offer rotation depth.

That group of arms could still make up a perfectly capable starting rotation for a contending club, but the error bars are much wider now, and there is no question the Yankees are a much less dangerous World Series contender without Cole. It doesn’t help that they’re also dealing with injury issues on the other side of the ball. Veteran bats Giancarlo Stanton (elbows) and DJ LeMahieu (calf) are likely to miss the beginning of the season.

Presumably, the Yankees will consider their options to upgrade their rotation externally. Available free agents include Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and Spencer Turnbull, although none of those names offer anything close to the star power the Yankees lost. Thus, if GM Brian Cashman wants to find a top-of-the-rotation replacement for Cole, he’ll have to turn to the trade market. Some of the most interesting potential trade candidates include Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins, Luis Castillo of the Mariners, and Dylan Cease and Michael King of the Padres. The most recent reporting on all of those pitchers suggests that an offseason trade is unlikely, but a desperate Yankees team could certainly change that.

The Yankees had a chance to part ways with the six-time All-Star this offseason when Cole triggered his opt-out clause in November. The team could have blocked his opt-out by adding another year and $36MM to the end of his contract, which they chose not to do. However, the two sides ultimately agreed to stick together as if Cole had never triggered his opt-out in the first place, with the Yankees keeping him around for the four years and $144MM remaining on his original guaranteed deal. In other words, while the Yankees may have had their concerns about Cole’s longevity, they could not have been overly worried that his elbow troubles would rear their ugly head again so soon.

From 2017-22, Cole led all pitchers with 173 starts and 1070 2/3 innings pitched. He dealt with some elbow inflammation in 2016, but from then until 2024, his only IL stint was due to COVID-19 protocols. In an age of ever-increasing arm injuries and ever-decreasing inning counts, Cole has been a workhorse, topping 200 innings in a season six times in the last ten years. Sadly, his run of healthy seasons came to an end last year, and this coming season will be the first since 2012 in which Cole does not pitch. Instead, he will turn his focus toward his rehab in an effort to miss as little of the 2026 campaign as possible.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

Millions, Medicals, and Maybes: The Maddening Art of Assessing Player Health

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Zack Scott, former Mets Acting GM and four-time champion with the Red Sox, empowers sports operations and individuals to win through Four Rings Sports Solutions. He specializes in data-driven strategies and leadership development. His Sports Ops Launchpad helps aspiring sports ops pros break into the industry. Connect with him on LinkedIn here.  Zack will be contributing periodically to MLB Trade Rumors. 

As Florida’s Grapefruit League approaches its halfway point, Yankees and Mets fans are already venting their fury. Prized offseason pitching acquisitions Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas are injured before even throwing a regular-season pitch for the Mets. Yankees ace Gerrit Cole is also hurt and facing the prospect of possibly missing the entire season.

Having given Montas and Manaea a combined $109MM, the Mets faithful want to know how the team doctors green-lit those deals. Likewise, Yankees supporters question what Cole’s physical exams missed after the Bombers convinced him not to opt out and walk away from the $144MM left on his deal.

As a former baseball executive, I’ve fielded those same frustrated queries. Forecasting player injury risk involves far more art than science, often leaving teams and fans dissatisfied. I hear these complaints frequently since I live in the NY metro area and contribute to SNY’s weeknight show, Baseball Night in New York.

There’s rarely a satisfying answer because the assessment process is highly imperfect. Every veteran pitcher has wear and tear if you look hard enough. Acute injuries occur after the fact. Let’s examine how it typically works, its key flaws, and some ways it could be improved.

The Current (Flawed) Process
When a free agent agrees to terms, the deal is almost always contingent on a physical. The team’s medical staff examines the player, including clinical evaluations, strength and flexibility tests, and MRI imaging of joints like shoulders and elbows for pitchers.

Experts from across the organization weigh in with opinions that a head athletic trainer or performance director synthesizes into an overall risk rating for the GM. For trades, it’s a similar review of medical records, but there’s no in-person exam.

There are several issues with this approach:

• Doctors and trainers interpret MRI findings differently
• Individual expert biases color the assessments
• Lack of standardized, objective metrics
• Siloed information without enough collaboration
• Over-reliance on a single organizational voice
• Underutilization of advanced data analytics

In this high-stakes environment, a process reliant on human judgment is open to significant error.

A System Ripe for Abuse
Valid, complete information is critical for proper risk assessments. However, in this ultra-competitive industry, teams are motivated to gain edges wherever possible, sometimes unethically.

When I was with the Red Sox in 2016, we traded top pitching prospect Anderson Espinoza to the Padres for Drew Pomeranz. Our medical staff reviewed the records San Diego shared and signed off on the deal.

After Pomeranz reported, we discovered he was managing multiple health issues that were not disclosed to us. ESPN reported that the Padres instructed their athletic trainers to maintain two sets of files—one for internal use and a sanitized one for trade purposes. While MLB never divulged details, they investigated and concluded there was wrongdoing. GM A.J. Preller was suspended for 30 days (Take that, wrist!).

The incident eroded trust so much that any subsequent transactions with the Padres were thought to need additional vetting by a third party. It exemplified the system’s vulnerability to exploitation and dependence on clubs exchanging information in good faith.

From Biased Experts to Big Mistakes
Even when injury records are complete, human bias and error can still lead teams astray. As the Mets’ Acting GM before the 2021 season, I explored signing veteran starter Rich Hill. Our medical team reviewed his records and strongly recommended against the move, given his age and injury history. While I had reservations about the assessment, I ultimately decided to heed their advice and pass on Hill.

In retrospect, that was a mistake. Hill signed with the Rays for a reasonable $2.5MM and gave them nearly 100 solid innings. When we traded for him that July, I learned Rich was understandably frustrated that our medical assessment was pessimistic months earlier.

I called Rich to clarify the situation and take responsibility for the decision. While our assessor likely took a conservative approach, as the GM, I had to own the final call. This experience reinforced how these assessments can vary based on the individuals and organizational histories involved. Years prior, former Mets performance staff members took bullets, rightly or wrongly, for player injuries, influencing the current staff to take a more risk-averse approach.

Moving forward, I pushed our group to focus more on objective data and collaborate across silos to mitigate individual biases. We had to balance risks with potential rewards and understand that perfect prediction is impossible. Judgment calls wouldn’t always work out, but we needed to approach them with discipline, openness, and the bigger picture in mind.

That same month, we selected Vanderbilt pitcher Kumar Rocker 10th overall in the draft. After the pick, we did a deep dive into his medicals, which included multiple expert opinions. Despite Rocker’s talent, we ultimately decided not to offer him a contract due to the high perceived risk. A year later, the Rangers drafted Rocker third overall and signed him for $5.2MM. Two teams evaluating similar information came to opposite conclusions. Rocker is now a top-50 prospect, excelling in the minors. Our assessment was clearly wrong, and it cost us at least a valuable trade chip and potentially a frontline starter. That’s how impactful these judgments can be.

Finding a Better Way Forward
To reduce costly human bias and error, MLB and individual clubs must evolve to a more data-driven, objective methodology. Some suggested improvements:

MLB should:

• Standardize protocols for medicals, physicals, and imaging
• Mandate sharing of training and biomechanical data
• Use validated tools to assess psychological factors

Teams should:

• Leverage AI and machine learning to analyze images (e.g., MRI) and predict injury risk
• Develop personalized biomechanical and kinetic player models
• Improve collaboration between medical, performance, and analytics staff
• Have subjective evaluators predict outcomes (e.g., innings pitched) and assign confidence scores

By taking these steps and focusing on hard data while still valuing expert insights, teams can optimize the art and science of this process. It won’t be perfect but will be significantly better than current practices.

Progressive teams are already moving in this direction, and others are sure to follow as they recognize the competitive advantages it brings. Smarter, more precise health forecasting is the future of player acquisitions. Hopefully, fans will soon have more confidence in the medical evaluations that drive roster decisions.

Art Schallock Passes Away

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Former World Series champion Art Schallock passed away last week, according to multiple reports. He was 100 and had held the title of oldest living former MLB player.

Schallock was a native of Mill Valley, California. After serving in the Navy during World War II, he signed with the Brooklyn Dodgers going into the 1947 season. The Dodgers traded him to the Yankees midway through the 1951 campaign. Schallock started six of 11 appearances as a rookie, working to a 3.88 earned run average across 46 2/3 innings. The Yankees defeated the Giants in six games in the World Series. Schallock didn’t make an appearance.

The 5’9″ southpaw bounced between the Bronx and the minors over the next few seasons. The Yankees won the World Series again in both 1952 and ’53. Schallock made an appearance in the latter Series, tossing two innings of one-run ball. He played in New York into 1955, when the Orioles claimed him off waivers. Schallock finished his career in Baltimore, where he worked to a 4.15 ERA across a personal-high 80 1/3 innings.

Over parts of five seasons, he pitched to a 4.02 earned run average in 170 1/3 innings. He recorded 77 strikeouts over his 58 appearances. MLBTR sends our condolences to Schallock’s family, friends and loved ones.

The Nationals’ Fifth Starter Competition

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The Nationals continue to evaluate candidates for the final spot in their rotation. Manager Dave Martinez confirmed to reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com) that four pitchers will be in the Opening Day rotation if healthy: MacKenzie Gore, Michael Soroka, Jake Irvin and Trevor Williams. The Nats haven’t revealed in what order those pitchers will take the ball, but the more meaningful development is that there’s only one rotation spot up for grabs.

There appear to be three candidates for that job. Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz are coming off solid rookie seasons. The Nats added former NPB southpaw Shinnosuke Ogasawara on an affordable two-year, $3.5MM free agent deal. All three are left-handers who are in their mid-20s and aiming to break camp for the first time in their MLB careers.

Parker is the most experienced of the bunch. Washington called up the 6’4″ southpaw in the middle of April. He stuck in the rotation for the remainder of the season. Parker made 29 starts and worked to a 4.29 earned run average through 151 innings. He posted a slightly below-average 20.6% strikeout rate against a solid 6.7% walk percentage. Parker doesn’t have huge stuff but looks the part of a solid back-end command artist.

Herz has the opposite profile. He missed bats on nearly 13% of his offerings. Herz posted a 27.7% strikeout rate, continuing a trend of plus swing-and-miss numbers he showed throughout his minor league career. His minor league walk numbers wouldn’t point to a long-term future in the rotation, but he showed surprisingly reasonable control (9.4% walk rate) over his first 19 MLB starts. He turned in a 4.16 ERA through 88 2/3 frames.

Ogasawara’s profile is closer to Parker’s. He allowed 3.62 earned runs per nine over his nine seasons in Japan. Ogasawara worked to a 3.12 ERA across 144 1/3 frames for Chunichi Dragons last season. He had a well below-average 13.6% strikeout rate that explains his modest deal. He walked fewer than 4% of batters faced, so he’s a good strike-thrower, but it’s not clear whether his stuff will play against big league competition.

No one from this trio has had an especially impressive camp. Parker’s results have been the best. He has allowed four runs through 7 1/3 innings, striking out seven without issuing a walk. Ogasawara has surrendered 11 runs (seven earned) with five walks and six strikeouts over 9 1/3 frames. Herz has allowed eight runs (six earned) with seven free passes and only three punchouts through 6 2/3 innings. While it’s not worth reading much into a handful of Spring Training appearances, Parker’s greater experience seemed to give him a leg up on the job entering camp. If that were the case, it’s hard to argue that Herz and Ogasawara have shown enough to overtake him to this point.

Padres Keeping Jhony Brito In Relief

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The Padres are keeping Jhony Brito in long relief, manager Mike Shildt told reporters (including AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). While not especially surprising, that takes him out of the competition for the fifth starter spot.

Brito has spent most of his career in the Yankees organization. He reached the big leagues with New York in 2023 after seven seasons in the minors. The righty started 13 of 25 appearances as a rookie, working to a 4.28 ERA through 90 1/3 innings. The Padres acquired him during the following offseason as one of the ancillary players in their five-player return for Juan Soto. San Diego prioritized upper level starting pitching. Michael King jumped right into their rotation, while prospect Drew Thorpe was flipped a few months later in the Dylan Cease trade.

Randy Vásquez and Brito profiled as upper level rotation depth. Vásquez started 20 games last year, turning in a 4.87 ERA over 98 frames. Brito never cracked the big league rotation. He made 26 appearances out of Shildt’s bullpen. He allowed 4.12 earned runs per nine with a well below-average 15.7% strikeout rate over 43 2/3 innings. Brito did start all six appearances that he made with Triple-A El Paso. Opposing lineups tagged him for 17 runs over 14 innings. An elbow strain ended his season in August.

Brito is back to health and has taken the ball three times this spring. He has given up three runs in as many innings with one strikeout and walk apiece. The 27-year-old is vying for a multi-inning role, which opened up with Bryan Hoeing expected to begin the season on the injured list. Hoeing is battling shoulder soreness and hasn’t pitched this spring. Brito still has an option remaining and would head back to El Paso if he doesn’t win the long relief job.

Barring a long shot trade of Cease or King, they’ll lead Shildt’s starting staff. Yu Darvish and Nick Pivetta are locked into the next two spots. The competition for the #5 role is seemingly down to Kyle Hart, Matt Waldron, Vásquez, and Stephen Kolek. The Friars signed Hart to a $1.5MM free agent deal after he posted a 2.69 ERA in Korea. Waldron, a knuckleballer, held a rotation spot for most of last year. He pitched well early on but was rocked for nearly a run per inning after the All-Star Break. Kolek allowed a 5.21 ERA while working out of the bullpen as a Rule 5 pick. He’s building back up as a starter and can be optioned after the Padres carried him on their MLB roster for all of last season.

Latest On Dylan Cease, Michael King

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As is the case every year, Spring Training has brought a handful of significant pitching injuries. The Yankees have been hit the hardest. They confirmed this evening that they’re losing Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery — a week after Luis Gil went down for months with a lat strain. The Mets will open the season without Sean Manaea or Frankie Montas. The Mariners (George Kirby) and Orioles (Grayson Rodriguez) will each begin the year without a pitcher who would’ve been in the upper half of their respective rotations.

The injuries have reignited speculation about a Spring Training jolt to the trade market. A few fanbases are surely hoping their teams can line up with the Padres. San Diego entertained interest in impending free agents Dylan Cease and Michael King early in the offseason. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has shown a willingness to make significant trades at unconventional times on the calendar, including last spring’s deal to land Cease from the White Sox.

That still seems unlikely. Preller indicated at the start of camp that the team’s focus was on retaining its rotation. That hasn’t stopped teams from calling about the Padres’ top two starters. However, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune writes that King is “virtually assured” of sticking with San Diego into the regular season. The door seems just slightly more open on Cease. Acee reports that the Padres would only consider moving Cease if the return includes a significant upgrade in one or more of their weakest lineup positions: catcher, left field, and designated hitter.

Budgetary constraints limited the Padres’ free agent activity for most of the offseason. They moved late to add Nick Pivetta on an extremely backloaded four-year free agent deal. A few days later, they brought in Kyle Hart on a $1.5MM contract. They could round out the rotation behind Cease, King, and Yu Darvish. San Diego opted for low-cost acquisitions to fill out the lineup. Elias Díaz is back on a $3.5MM contract to catch. They added Jason Heyward and Connor Joe for a combined $2MM to work as the left field platoon. The Padres don’t have a set designated hitter.

Rotation depth is still a question. Hart is coming off a strong season in Korea, but he has 11 career MLB innings (which came five years ago). Injuries will force them to rely on the likes of Randy Vásquez, Stephen Kolek and Matt Waldron throughout the season. It’s hard to envision them trading Cease without netting at least one starting pitcher who’d jump directly into their rotation. Other teams are presumably reluctant to part with a controllable starter and a significant lineup upgrade. That’s especially true at a stage of the offseason when they wouldn’t have many options to backfill the lineup in free agency.

King and Cease could be the subject of more realistic trade rumors in a few months depending on the team’s place in the standings. They’d be highly sought after rental targets if the Padres underperform in the first half. San Diego will almost certainly make qualifying offers to both pitchers if they don’t deal them, but they’d land much stronger prospect returns in trade if they fall out of contention.

Yasmani Grandal Reportedly Turned Down Offer From Braves “About A Month Ago”

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According to reporter Francys Romero, the Braves made an offer to free agent catcher Yasmani Grandal “about a month ago.” Needless to say, Grandal, who remains unsigned, turned down the proposed deal. The terms of Atlanta’s offer were not included in Romero’s report.

Grandal, 36, is the top catcher remaining on the free agent market. Depending on how teams view James McCann and Yan Gomes, Grandal is arguably the only unsigned catcher capable of filling more than a backup role. During his best years, he was widely considered one of the top catchers in the sport. His performance dropped off significantly in 2022 and ’23, but he rebounded with the Pirates in 2024. His offensive numbers were slightly above average for a catcher in nearly every category, while his top-notch pitch framing numbers made him a valuable defender behind the dish. He finished the season with 1.4 FanGraphs WAR in 72 games played.

Up until recently, one might have thought the Braves were set at catcher. Sean Murphy is entering the third year of his six-year, $73MM contract extension, and the Braves surely want him to play as much as possible. While he had a down year in 2024, he is only one year removed from an All-Star season in 2023. In addition, the consensus top prospect in Atlanta’s system is catcher Drake Baldwin. Soon to be 24, Baldwin excelled at Triple-A last year and has continued to excel this spring. He looks ready to make his MLB debut. It’s hard to imagine how Grandal would have fit into the mix.

However, things changed last week when the Braves announced that Murphy would miss four to six weeks with a cracked rib cage. That makes Baldwin the likely Opening Day starter. All of a sudden, the youngster is facing far more pressure to succeed right away. Thus, if the Braves had any interest in Grandal last month, one would think that interest would only be greater now that Murphy is set to miss extended time. Indeed, Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported a few days ago that the Braves were “considering” Grandal and McCann.

From Grandal’s perspective, signing with the Braves might now seem more appealing than it did last month. He would have a clear path to regular playing time (or at least a split role with Baldwin) while Murphy is on the shelf. That might only be for a couple of weeks, but even so, it would give Grandal a chance to prove he still deserves a major league opportunity, whether in Atlanta or somewhere else. The Braves are the only team known to have expressed interest in Grandal this winter, but perhaps another club could look to acquire him if he gets a big league gig and plays well.

Romero notes that Grandal is hoping to continue his playing career, though he could consider retirement if the right deal doesn’t come together. The 36-year-old has enjoyed a highly successful 13-year tenure in Major League Baseball with the Padres, Dodgers, Brewers, White Sox, and Pirates. At his peak, he was a well-above-average offensive catcher, putting up an .807 OPS and a 121 wRC+ over his first 10 seasons. However, his most valuable tool has always been his glove. In particular, Grandal is widely considered one of the most talented pitch framers of his generation. According to FanGraphs, he has racked up 152.0 framing runs throughout his career, easily the most among active catchers. Austin Hedges ranks second with 89.3. If Grandal chooses to hang up his catching gear, he will certainly have a strong career to look back on.

Cubs, Orioles Exploring Rotation Additions

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There are still several starting pitchers available in free agency and it’s possible that mounting injuries could help create new opportunities for them. Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic report that the Cubs and Orioles are two clubs exploring rotation additions. The Cubs reportedly had some talks with Andrew Heaney before he signed with the Pirates and are currently keeping tabs on Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn.

The Cubs don’t have a major health concern in their rotation at the moment. Javier Assad has been slowed by some oblique soreness and is trending towards starting the season on the injured list, but it doesn’t seem like he’ll be out for an especially long time. The club’s projected top four of Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd and Jameson Taillon are healthy. With Assad out, Colin Rea could perhaps take the fifth spot for a while. Or if he’s in a long relief role, guys like Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Caleb Kilian or Cody Poteet could step up, though all the guys in that group have options and could also be in the Triple-A rotation.

However, Rosenthal notes that the Cubs are facing an unusual spring. They have been ramping up a bit earlier than usual in anticipation of going to Japan soon. As part of the Tokyo Series, they will play a couple of exhibition games against Japanese clubs on March 15th and 16th, before playing regular season games against the Dodgers on March 18th and 19th. The Cubs are seemingly aware that some hiccups could arise with the unique schedule and are keeping the phone lines open.

At this part of the calendar, the market isn’t especially kind to players. The aforementioned Heaney signed with the Pirates a few weeks ago, a one-year deal with a guarantee of just $5.25MM. About a week ago, Jose Quintana signed with the Brewers for a $4.25MM guarantee. Coming into the winter, MLBTR predicted Heaney and Quintana to get two-year deals worth $24MM and $20MM respectively. Many pitchers outearned expectations earlier in the offseason but the market has clearly fallen off more recently.

A few months ago, Gibson and Lynn seemed like possibilities for eight-figure guarantees on one-year deals. But the fact that they have lingered unsigned while the market has softened means they are likely going to have to adjust their expectations if they want to sign. Rosenthal reports that unsigned pitchers are being asked to sign advanced consent forms, which allow clubs to terminate a contract within 45 days for any reason except injury and only have to pay the player for the time he spent on the roster. That’s obviously not ideal from a player’s perspective and it would only be signed if such a player had very little leverage.

Lynn, 38 in May, has a lengthy track record but isn’t riding a high tide of momentum at the moment. He posted a 5.73 earned run average in 2023, the worst of his career. He still was able to a secure a one-year, $11MM deal from the Cardinals and bounced back somewhat with a 3.84 ERA in 2024, but there were also some flags. He twice went on the injured list due to inflammation in his right knee, the same knee that had required surgical repair in 2022. Those IL stints limited him to 117 1/3 innings last year. While the ERA bounced back, his strikeout rate and velocity dropped.

Gibson, 37, is one of the steadiest pitchers in the league but lacks upside. He has logged at least 147 1/3 innings in each of the past ten major league seasons. However, he only posted an ERA below 4.20 in three of those. His 4.24 ERA last year was his best of the past three seasons.

Perhaps neither are as exciting as the aforementioned optionable pitchers that the Cubs have on hand, but they certainly have more experience. Between Brown, Wicks, Kilian and Poteet, there’s no one with even 85 big league innings.

For the Orioles, Rosenthal doesn’t specifically connect them to Gibson or Lynn, but it’s understandable that they would be keeping tabs on the market generally. Grayson Rodriguez has some elbow inflammation and is still getting some testing done but will start the season on the IL regardless. That leaves the O’s with a projected rotation of Zach Eflin, Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano and Dean Kremer. Manager Brandon Hyde has suggested the final spot is likely down to Albert Suárez or Cade Povich.

Suárez is a journeyman who spent many years in Asia before returning to North American ball last year. He pitched in a swing role for the O’s in 2024 and logged a 3.70 ERA. Povich went into 2024 as a notable prospect but had a 5.20 ERA in his first 16 big league starts. Adding a veteran starter could allow the club to keep Suárez in a long relief role and bump Povich to the Triple-A rotation, while also adding depth to hedge against future injuries.

Signing at this part of the season does come with some perceived risk, however. As noted by Rosenthal, both Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery signed late last winter and the initial results were poor with both. Snell signed with the Giants in mid-March, then had a couple of IL stints in the first half. He eventually finished strong but was sitting on a 9.51 ERA when he returned from his second IL stint in July. Montgomery didn’t officially sign with the Diamondback until late March and never got on track, finishing the year with a 6.23 ERA over 117 innings.

The Cubs and Orioles are surely not the only clubs sniffing around the available starting pitchers. The Yankees will be without Luis Gil for months due to a lat strain and are facing the possibility of Gerrit Cole requiring Tommy John surgery. The Mariners are going to put George Kirby on the IL to start the year due to some shoulder inflammation. Other injuries will inevitably arise and lengthen that list.

For clubs looking to free agency, they will have to consider whether its worth the money to sign one of these vets and quickly ramp them up, as opposed to going with in-house options. Rosenthal notes that both Gibson and Lynn have been throwing in an attempt to be somewhat ready, though they would surely still need some game action somewhere to truly get in form. Other free agents of note include Patrick Corbin and Spencer Turnbull. Guys like Jordan Montgomery or Taijuan Walker may be available on the trade market.

Poll: Should The Phillies Extend Kyle Schwarber?

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Just over a week ago, reporting indicated that the Phillies and slugger Kyle Schwarber have engaged in “broad” conversations about an extension. That came not long after Schwarber expressed a desire to stick in Philadelphia beyond the life of his current contract, which expires at the end of the coming season. While no updates about the status of talks between the sides have been made public since then, it was just over a year ago that the Phillies agreed to an extension with pending free agent Zack Wheeler after reports of mutual interest between the sides gave way to radio silence as the sides hammered out a deal. Things have been similarly quiet regarding Schwarber’s teammate and fellow possible extension candidate J.T. Realmuto, as the sides reportedly have mutual interest in an extension as of last month with few details having emerged since then.

Getting back to Schwarber, it’s understandable why the 32-year-old would have interest in sticking in Philadelphia long-term. Aside from the team’s on-field success, which has seen them capture the NL pennant in 2022 and follow that up with 90- and 95-win campaigns the past two years, Schwarber himself has found an impressive level of consistency in Philadelphia. Across three seasons in a Phillies uniform, he’s slashed .221/.344/.488 with a wRC+ of 128 while never posting a figure below 120. That’s not only a substantial improvement over his career 119 wRC+ prior to arriving in Philly, but the results are also far more consistent on a year-to-year basis: his wRC+ figures prior to joining the Phillies ranged from as low as 91 in 2020 to as high as 146 in 2021.

Aside from the success both Schwarber and the team have enjoyed over the past three seasons, Schwarber may be hoping that avoiding the open market could afford him longer-term stability. The veteran has always been a lackluster defender, and in 2024 he spent virtually the entire campaign at DH. There’s been talk of Schwarber getting more reps in the outfield (or perhaps even at first base) this year, but the market has proved harsh in recent years for players like Schwarber regardless of whether he’s viewed as a bat-first corner option or a pure DH. Veteran DH J.D. Martinez resorted to taking one-year deals with the Dodgers and Mets during both the 2022-23 and ’23-24 offseasons, and he remains unsigned in March for the second consecutive year. Other defensively limited players like Pete Alonso and Anthony Santander ended up with contracts that fell below expectations this winter, while Schwarber’s longtime teammate Anthony Rizzo has seemingly struggled to get any sort of tempting offer this winter.

That’s not to say Schwarber is necessarily doomed to the same fate of underwhelming offers on the open market, of course. Teams are almost always willing to pay for truly elite talent in free agency, and Schwarber’s 131 wRC+ over the past four seasons is good for 25th in baseball over that timeframe. Those numbers are only slightly ahead of Alonso, who ranks 29th with a 129 wRC+, but it’s worth noting that Alonso faced questions about his future production after back-to-back down seasons. Meanwhile, Schwarber’s 2024 was nothing short of excellent as he slashed .248/.366/.485 with 38 homers and a career-high 3.4 fWAR. Another strong season from Schwarber in 2025 would surely line him up for a healthy contract in free agency, even if his age and defensive profile would likely inhibit his ability to land a lengthier contract.

There’s both pros and cons to the idea re-upping with Schwarber from the Phillies’ perspective as well. Schwarber offers rare left-handed power and exceptional consistency for a player with his skillset, but it’s not hard to see why an aging Phillies club might prefer to go with a younger alternative with strong defensive skills rather than continue to trot out a team that relies on both Schwarber and Nick Castellanos as regular fixtures of the lineup in 2026. Schwarber’s strikeout-heavy approach could be cause for concern in theory, but the club is more than capable of balancing that out with more contact-oriented hitters like Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, and Trea Turner.

Perhaps the strongest argument for keeping Schwarber in the fold is the lack of clear upgrades available in free agency next winter. Unless the Phillies opt to splurge on an aggressive pursuit of either Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Kyle Tucker, they’ll be hard pressed to find a better hitter on the market next winter than the one they already have. Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suarez, and Cody Bellinger (if he opts out) are among the best hitters in the next tier of free agency next year, and while all three are solid players, none of them come close to offering the reliable offensive impact that Schwarber has given the Phillies over the past three years.

Is that impact enough to live with the high strikeout rates and lack of defensive value on what would likely be a two- or three-year extension? Have your say in the poll below:

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