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Blue Jays Looking To Add Bat-First Players, Have “Strong Interest” In Joc Pederson

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After missing out on both Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto despite finishing as finalists for both stars, the Blue Jays have recently pivoted to smaller moves than the blockbusters they were contemplating earlier in the offseason. They’ve re-signed center fielder Kevin Kiermaier and added utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa to their infield mix over the past week and a recent report regarded the club as the leaders for the services of right-hander Yariel Rodriguez. According to Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, the club has also continued to be active in the positional market since signing Kiermaier and Kiner-Falefa, showing strong interest in free agent slugger Joc Pederson.

Pederson, who MLBTR’s Leo Morgenstern profiled just this morning, is coming off something of a down season with the Giants in 2023. The 31-year-old got off to a scorching hot start this past season with a .281/.394/.518 (150 wRC+) slash line through June 17, though that stretch accounted for just 137 plate appearances as the slugger battled wrist and hand injuries early in the season. While Pederson managed to avoid the injured list throughout the remainder of the season, his performance declined significantly throughout the remainder of the campaign. In 288 trips to the plate from June 18 onward, Pederson hit a meager .213/.326/.369 (92 wRC+), a performance that dragged his overall season line down to .235/.348/.416 (111 wRC+). While Pederson’s 20.8% strikeout rate and 12.8% walk rate were more or less in line with his earlier production, Pederson’s BABIP shrunk from .317 to just .247 while his power production suffered a simultaneously dip.

After crushing seven home runs in just 36 games early in the season, Pederson’s final 85 appearances saw him hit just eight round-trippers. Interestingly, the disparity in production came with similar peripheral numbers; Pederson had the same groundball percentage of 39.5% both before and after the aforementioned June 17 cutoff, and his soft contact rate actually went down from 12.8% to 10.8% the rest of the way. Given the minimal change in Pederson’s peripherals regarding batted balls and plate discipline, it’s seemingly fair to expect improved performance in 2024, particularly if he moves to a more homer-friendly park outside of San Francisco. That conclusion is further supported by Pederson’s excellent .368 xwOBA, which outstrips his wOBA by 37 points and is a mirror image of the .367 xwOBA he posted during his dominant 2022 campaign.

If Pederson can even come close to replicating his 2022 season, where he slashed an excellent .271/.353/.521 (146 wRC+) en route to his second career All Star campaign, he’d be an excellent fit for a Blue Jays roster short on left-handed bats following the departure of Brandon Belt, who posted a 138 wRC+ in 103 games this year as the club’s primary DH. Though Pederson primarily played DH in 2023 due to an outfield logjam in San Francisco, the slugger could also help to take some pressure off of Daulton Varsho in left field after a difficult 2023 season. The addition of Pederson would go along way to improving a Toronto offense that underperformed somewhat in 2023 and has since lost both Belt and Matt Chapman to free agency.

Of course, it’s important to note that Nicholson-Smith suggests that things are far from a done deal between the two sides, with the Diamondbacks, Angels, Giants, and Cubs all standing as other potential suitors (though the Cubs, Nicholson-Smith notes, may only have interest should they fail to re-sign Cody Bellinger). Likewise, the Blue Jays are interested in plenty of potential bat-first options beyond Pederson, with Nicholson-Smith name-checking each of Rhys Hoskins, J.D. Martinez, Joey Votto, and Justin Turner. Nicholson-Smith goes on to suggest that a deal with Pederson wouldn’t preclude the Jays from adding a second player from that mold, though it’s worth noting that with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. entrenched at first base only Justin Turner has recent experience elsewhere on the diamond, meaning Pederson would likely need to play the outfield on a regular basis in that scenario.

MLBTR Poll: Are The Rangers Done Spending This Winter?

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After winning the 2023 World Series, the first in franchise history, the Rangers have a big decision to make. They can either rest on their laurels, having accomplished their ultimate goal well ahead of schedule, or they can double down, reconfirming their commitment to winning. There is no denying their aggressive approach over the last two years paid dividends, but will they take that as motivation to remain aggressive or as impetus to let their foot off the gas?

The Rangers have been relatively quiet this offseason, having made just two notable acquisitions: starting pitcher Tyler Mahle and reliever Kirby Yates. Mahle, 29, is recovering from Tommy John surgery and won’t return to the mound until midsummer at the earliest. Yates, 37 in March, overcame elbow problems of his own to pitch a full season in 2023, but at this point in his career, he looks more like a middle reliever than the All-Star he once was.

Meanwhile, several key contributors and high-paid veterans came off the books at the end of the 2023 season, including Jordan Montgomery, Mitch Garver, Martín Pérez, Jake Odorizzi, Aroldis Chapman, and Will Smith. In other words, this team has holes to fill and, at least in theory, should have money to spend.

However, after allocating significant resources to sign players like Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray, Jacob deGrom, and Nathan Eovaldi over the past two years, not to mention adding Max Scherzer at last year’s trade deadline, the Rangers’ estimated 2024 payroll already sits dangerously close to the first luxury tax threshold. According to Roster Resource, the team has just over $4MM left to spend before they’d have to pay the tax.

The Rangers paid the competitive balance tax for the first time this past season. The total bill came in around $1.8MM, a drop in the bucket compared to their payroll and a small price to pay for a World Series title. Nonetheless, managing partner Ray C. Davis “isn’t keen to start the season above the tax threshold” in 2024, according to Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News. Grant has suggested as much at multiple points throughout the offseason, but he reemphasized the idea earlier this week. Specifically, he notes the higher surcharge for clubs that pay the tax multiple years in a row; teams pay a 20% tax on all overages their first year above the threshold, 30% in their second straight season, and 50% in subsequent seasons after that.

Grant also acknowledges that the Rangers, like several other teams, are dealing with uncertainty surrounding local TV revenue after Diamond Sports Group filed for bankruptcy earlier this year. That said, he stops short of presuming the team will start spending again if DSG and the Rangers reach a new deal for broadcast rights in 2024.

Despite all these budgetary questions, general manager Chris Young went on the record in late November to say Texas would be “active in free agency,” even if he wasn’t going to spend to the same degree as he had the previous two winters (per Grant). However, it’s unclear if signing Mahle and Yates and calling it a day would count as an active offseason in Young’s book. For what it’s worth, the Rangers have been linked to several top free agents over the past two months. Before signing Mahle and Yates, the team was connected with pitchers like Montgomery, Yariel Rodriguez, and Jordan Hicks. More recently, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggested the Rangers were still in on Clayton Kershaw, despite his recent shoulder surgery – even though Texas already has three starters (deGrom, Scherzer, and Mahle) who are recovering from surgeries of their own.

Without shedding some financial commitments elsewhere on the roster, any new signing the Rangers make could push their luxury tax payroll over the first threshold for penalties. Thus, if Davis is serious about avoiding the tax in 2024, Texas could already be finished spending this offseason; needless to say, that would be an anticlimactic way to follow up a World Series-winning campaign. Then again, if Rosenthal is correct to think the Rangers are pursuing Kershaw, perhaps they aren’t ready to curb their aggression after all. In addition to a starting pitcher, this team could use another proven bullpen arm and a full-time designated hitter. Plenty of talented players are still available if Texas is willing to pay their price.

As things currently stand, the Rangers have a good chance to return to the playoffs and contend for the AL West crown in 2024. However, being the defending World Series champions doesn’t make them the division favorites, nor does it mean they can expect to walk back into the postseason next fall. If ownership wants to topple the Astros dynasty, they’d be wise to keep investing in their roster.

So, what do MLBTR readers have to say? Will the Rangers continue looking for upgrades, even if it means paying the luxury tax again next season? Have your say in the poll below!

(poll link for app users)

Are The Rangers Done Spending This Winter?
No, they will spend past the first luxury tax threshold 41.26% (1,989 votes)
Yes, the Rangers are done making major signings this winter 34.37% (1,657 votes)
No, but they will also shed payroll to avoid paying the luxury tax 24.37% (1,175 votes)
Total Votes: 4,821

Red Sox Could Be Looking To Shed Additional Payroll

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The Red Sox made waves on Saturday afternoon, trading seven-time All-Star and 2018 World Series champion Chris Sale to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for young infielder Vaughn Grissom. Boston needed a second baseman, and Grissom can fill that role right away – and potentially for years to come. Still, as talented as Grissom very well may be, it’s hard not to view the trade as something of a salary dump for the Red Sox. Although Sale has spent significant time on the injured list over the past several years, he has flashed great stuff when healthy, and the Red Sox need all the upside they can get if they’re going to compete in the fearsome AL East. By trading the veteran starter to the Braves, along with $17MM in cash, the Red Sox reduced their total payroll commitments by $10.5MM and their luxury tax payroll by approximately $7MM for 2024 (per Roster Resource).

This is not the only trade chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has made to decrease payroll this winter. He flipped Luis Urías to the Mariners just before the non-tender deadline, sacrificing the infielder’s upside to avoid his estimated $4.7MM arbitration salary. He also dealt Alex Verdugo to the Yankees and essentially replaced him with former Cardinals outfielder Tyler O’Neill, saving an estimated $3.7MM in the process. Those sound like relatively inconsequential numbers for a large-market team like Boston, but for what it’s worth, the money the team saved by trading Urías, Verdugo, and Sale adds up to just under $19MM; newly signed starter Lucas Giolito will earn $18MM in 2024.

Indeed, while the Red Sox typically run one of the higher payrolls in the sport, it seems they’ll be operating under a tighter budget this offseason. As reported by Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com, the team has informed at least one free agent that they have to “shed more payroll” before they can pursue him “as aggressively as they want to.”

The Red Sox have shed significantly more payroll than they’ve added this winter. In addition to their various trades, the team let Justin Turner, Corey Kluber, Adam Duvall, James Paxton, and Joely Rodríguez reach free agency; those five accounted for just over $34MM in luxury tax payroll last season. Boston’s estimated luxury tax payroll now sits below $200MM for the first time since 2020. That being the case, it’s rather surprising to hear that ownership is tightening the purse strings. After all, it wasn’t so long ago that chairman Tom Werner claimed the team would be competitive in 2024, vowing to go “full throttle in every possible way” (per Sean McAdam of MassLive.com).

Of course, this rumor may be little more than a negotiation tactic, with the Red Sox playing hard to get to drive down a free agent target’s price. However, if Breslow is serious about reducing payroll, he might look to deal Kenley Jansen or Chris Martin in the coming weeks. The veteran relievers are set to hit free agency following the 2024 season, and they’d surely draw plenty of interest on the trading block. Jansen, who is owed $16MM next year, made his fourth career All-Star team last season, while Martin, who is set to make $9.5MM, led qualified MLB relievers in ERA. Losing Jansen or Martin would be a tough blow for Boston’s bullpen, but at least one could argue the Red Sox would be selling high on either arm. Jansen will be 36 next season, and he’s no longer the dominant closer he once was. Meanwhile, Martin will be 37, and it’s highly unlikely he’ll be able to maintain an ERA below 2.00.

Breslow could also dangle Nick Pivetta, who is set to earn approximately $6.9MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility, but then again, the team’s rotation looks thin enough as it is. Finally, the chief baseball officer would surely wish to be freed of the $95MM remaining on Trevor Story’s contract, but it’s hard to imagine the Red Sox could find a trade partner willing to take on the injury-prone shortstop.

It should also be said that it’s unclear which player Cotillo’s report refers to, as the Red Sox has been connected with no shortage of top free agents. The list includes frontline starting pitchers Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, high-end relievers Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson, and slugging outfielder Teoscar Hernández. All five of those free agents will be rewarded handsomely this winter, but needless to say, some will command a much higher salary than others. Perhaps the Red Sox would need to shed payroll before signing any of these players, but it’s possible they would only need to cut back to sign Snell or Montgomery to a nine-figure deal.

Free Agent Profile: Joc Pederson

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Thus far in the offseason, the free agent market has moved significantly faster for pitchers than for hitters. Twenty-two of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents have signed this winter, and 16 of those (including Shohei Ohtani) have been pitchers. Even beyond the top 50, pitchers have made up the majority of notable MLB signings. However, with Ohtani and Jung Hoo Lee off the board, perhaps the market for position players will begin to heat up in the new year.

One particular bat to keep an eye on is Joc Pederson, a two-time All-Star with an .800 OPS across ten big league seasons and 1,140 career games. While he missed the cut-off for MLBTR’s Top 50 list, he is arguably the best hitter remaining among the honorable mentions, and if he rediscovers the success he had in 2022, he could prove to be a bargain for his new club.

Over the first five years of his career, Pederson was a consistent power threat and a walk machine, crushing 123 home runs to go along with a 12.1% walk rate and a .245 isolated power. After a couple of down years in 2020 and ’21, the lefty slugger bounced all the way back in ’22, putting up the best offensive numbers of his career. His .874 OPS ranked seventh in the National League (min. 400 PA), while his 146 wRC+ ranked fifth. He was named to his first All-Star team since his rookie season and was a Silver Slugger finalist in the outfield.

Following his eye-catching 2022 campaign, Pederson accepted a $19.7MM qualifying offer from the Giants, more than tripling his $6MM salary from the previous season. Unfortunately, he was not able to live up to the high expectations he set for himself. His numbers dropped in all three triple-slash categories, and while his .764 OPS was still well above average, it was hardly elite.

Be that as it may, there is plenty of reason for optimism as Pederson enters his age-32 campaign. For one thing, he recorded his highest walk rate since 2015 and the best walk-to-strikeout ratio of his career in 2023. His batting average and on-base percentage still declined, but that could merely be the result of bad luck on balls in play. While his .235 BA was below league average, his .264 xBA (per Baseball Savant) was significantly above average. Moreover, the -0.029 difference between his BA and xBA was the second largest gap among NL hitters (min. 200 balls in play).

In the same vein, the lefty’s .366 xwOBA was right in line with his .367 xwOBA from the previous season. Indeed, Pederson’s Baseball Savant page paints a pretty promising picture overall. His xwOBA ranked in the 90th percentile in MLB, while his 52.2% hard-hit rate ranked in the 96th. On top of that, he set a new career high in maximum exit velocity, crushing one particular pitch at 116.6 mph. Only 13 hitters topped that number in 2023, a list of batters littered with MVP candidates and All-Stars. Needless to say, we’re talking about a hitter who can still demolish the baseball.

With all that in mind, it’s reasonable to presume Pederson will improve upon his .764 OPS and 111 wRC+ in 2024. According to the Steamer projection system at FanGraphs, he has the second-highest projected OPS (.809) among all unsigned free agents. Only Jorge Soler (.813) is ahead of him by a narrow margin, while Michael Brantley has the next highest projection at .799. To be fair, Pederson is unlikely to be an everyday player, and his projections presume a limited amount of exposure to same-handed pitching. Still, any hitter who can produce an .800 OPS on the heavy side of a platoon is a valuable player to have around.

Yet, unlike fellow outfield/DH bats Teoscar Hernández and Soler, Pederson hasn’t been connected with many teams so far this winter. Given the shallow market for impact bats, especially left-handed hitters, it’s somewhat strange he hasn’t generated more interest.

Around the end of the regular season, Pederson linked himself to his then-team, the Giants, telling Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that he would love to return to San Francisco in 2024. “I really like it here,” he explained. “It’s a great group of guys. I love the way they run the organization.” While such comments aren’t always particularly revelatory, especially when they concern a player’s current team, it’s worth noting that Pederson chose to return to the Giants in 2023 instead of testing the open market after his All-Star season. In addition, he grew up rooting for the Giants, and he has spent all but one year of his professional career playing in his home state of California.

However, the Giants are almost certainly out of room for Pederson after signing KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee to a six-year, $113MM deal earlier this month. In addition to Lee, the Giants have four veteran outfielders on the roster, two of whom, Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski, are left-handed hitters with mediocre career platoon splits against same-handed pitching – much like Pederson himself.

Pederson also spurred brief speculation he was signing with the Phillies this winter after posting a picture of himself posing at Citizens Bank Park to his personal Instagram account. The rumors were shortlived, however, as Todd Zolecki of MLB.com quickly set the record straight: “It doesn’t mean he’s signing with the Phillies. They haven’t even talked this offseason.”

To that end, Pederson never made much sense for the Phillies. Philadelphia already has a left-handed full-time DH (Kyle Schwarber) and a left-handed outfielder with sizeable platoon splits (Brandon Marsh). If president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is going to sign another bat, he will presumably target a right-handed hitter with a bit more defensive versatility.

The only team Pederson has been connected with by any source other than himself is the Blue Jays, who expressed interest in the outfielder earlier this month, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. Davidi’s report came before Toronto signed Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, but that doesn’t mean the club couldn’t add Pederson, too. General manager Ross Atkins mentioned early in the offseason that he would consider adding a primary DH, and the Jays should also have playing time available in both outfield corners when the injury-prone Kiermaier and George Springer need some time off their feet. That said, the Blue Jays have also been heavily linked to Cody Bellinger this winter, with Bob Nightengale of USA Today calling them the favorites a couple of weeks back. Signing Bellinger, another left-handed outfielder, would likely take Toronto out of the running for Pederson.

So, beyond those three clubs, where could Pederson wind up? One possible landing spot is the Angels, who have room in the outfield and could certainly use a left-handed power bat. By all accounts, GM Perry Minasian isn’t planning to start a rebuild, and after missing out on Ohtani, he should have plenty of cash to spend. According to the estimates provided by Roster Resource, the Angels’ payroll currently sits about $60MM below the final tally from last season.

Another possibility is the Nationals, who are reportedly seeking a left-handed power bat this winter. If that is indeed the case, there might be no better option than Pederson. It’s hard to imagine the Nationals are in on Bellinger, or that Bellinger would choose to sign with a rebuilding club. Meanwhile, Brantley is an excellent left-handed hitter, but power hasn’t been a part of his offensive toolkit in several years. Brandon Belt is the only other free agent who looks to be an impactful left-handed hitter, but it’s anyone’s guess if he can keep mashing in his age-36 season.

Finally, the Mariners are one more suitor worth keeping in mind. After trading Jarred Kelenic and non-tendering Mike Ford, Seattle could use another lefty hitter. Mitch Garver figures to get most of the playing time at DH, but the Mariners have room for an upgrade in either one of the outfield corners. Considering president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto’s long-standing aversion to signing free agent position players to longer-term contracts, Pederson seems like a good fit; he might be the best free agent outfielder who would be open to signing a one-year deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Braves, Red Sox Trade Chris Sale For Vaughn Grissom

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The Braves and Red Sox have agreed to a major trade, as left-hander Chris Sale will head to Atlanta in exchange for infield prospect Vaughn Grissom, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports.  The Sox will also include $17MM in the deal to help cover Sale’s $27.5MM salary for the 2024 season, as per the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier.  Sale had a full no-trade clause that he has waived to facilitate the move.

The surprising move ends Sale’s tumultuous run in Boston after seven years and six seasons, as Sale missed all of the 2020 campaign.  After acquiring Sale as part of a blockbuster deal with the White Sox in December 2016, Sale pitched brilliantly in his first two seasons at Fenway, twice finishing in the top four in AL Cy Young Award voting and playing a big role in Boston’s World Series title in 2018.

Since 2019 was the last year of Sale’s previous contract, the Red Sox were aggressive in locking up their ace, signing him to a five-year, $145MM extension covering the 2020-24 seasons, with a $20MM club option for the 2025 campaign.  Unfortunately, this extension has proven to be a big misfire, as Sale started to run into injury problems even late in the 2018 campaign.  He was shut down in August 2019 with elbow inflammation and received a PRP injection, yet that elbow issue was only the harbinger for the Tommy John surgery that cost Sale his entire 2020 season and most of his 2021 campaign.

The bad injury luck continued over the last two seasons, as Sale was sidelined by a wide array of maladies including a stress reaction in his ribs, a fractured finger, a broken wrist (suffered in a bicycle accident), and a stress reaction in his shoulder blade.  Sale tossed only 48 1/3 innings total in 2021-22, while rebounding to some extent to pitch 102 2/3 frames last season.

Sale’s 93.9mph fastball velocity in 2023 slightly topped his career average, while his strikeout, walk, and hard-hit ball rates were all well above the league average.  While the southpaw may never get back to his past elite form, Sale’s 2023 performance at least indicated that he still has a good deal left in the tank as he enters his age-35 season, provided that he can just stay on the field.

This is exactly what the Braves are counting on from Sale as a third or even a fourth starter, behind Max Fried, Spencer Strider, and Charlie Morton in the team’s rotation.  President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos is counting in Sale’s upside to bolster the pitching staff, and Atlanta’s collection of younger arms (AJ Smith-Shawver, Dylan Dodd, Huascar Ynoa, Darius Vines, and top prospect Hurston Waldrep) and swingman Reynaldo Lopez can provide extra depth should Sale or anyone else in the rotation need time on the injured list.

In typical Anthopoulos fashion, this particular trade came out of nowhere, even if the Braves were known to be looking for some pitching help.  Atlanta made a strong bid for Aaron Nola before he re-signed with the Phillies, and such free agent and trade targets as Tyler Glasnow, Dylan Cease, Sonny Gray, and Seth Lugo were also linked to the Braves on the rumor mill.

Because Sale’s extension the Red Sox contained $10MM of deferred money per season, he’ll cost the Braves merely $500K in actual salary in 2024.  Even without the deferral involved, a one-year, $10.5MM deal for Sale as a free agent would’ve been a reasonable or even a slight bargain price for a pitcher with his track record.  It could perhaps be argued that the Braves might have been better off finding such a pitcher on the free agent market rather than trade away a promising young player like Grissom, but it is also fair to note that such a rotation upgrade might not have existed at a $10.5MM price tag.  Or, dealing for a pitcher like Cease, Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber, or other still-available trade candidates might’ve cost Atlanta lot more than only Grissom.

Sale’s $20MM club option for 2025 shouldn’t be discounted either, as the Braves might consider exercising that option if Sale pitched well.  The $20MM figure matches what Morton is earning this season, and since Morton has flirted with retirement over the last few years, Sale could potentially step in as Atlanta’s veteran rotation arm if Morton does hang up his cleats next winter.  Sale’s $20MM club option is actually a vesting option that becomes guaranteed if he finishes the year healthy, and finished in the top 10 in NL Cy Young Award voting.

Anthopoulos and team chairman Terry McGuirk weren’t kidding last November when they said that the Braves planned to keep increasing payroll.  The Braves’ $203MM Opening Day payroll from 2023 was already a club record, and Roster Resource now projects a payroll just shy of $241MM for the 2024 squad.  After topping the luxury tax barrier for the first time in 2023, the Braves’ estimated $280MM tax number now soars over the third penalty tier of $277MM, so they’ll face increasingly hefty overages as second-time payors.  Passing the third tier means that Atlanta’s top pick in the 2024 draft will now drop 10 spots, and they’ll face the standard tax penalties related to qualified free agents and the international bonus pool.

This doesn’t appear to be much of a deterrent for an Atlanta club that has been swimming in extra revenues since the opening of Truist Park and its neighboring ballpark village project known as The Battery.  The Braves have used this money to lock up several members of its roster on contract extensions, and this young core has already delivered the 2021 World Series championships and six straight NL East crowns.

The outlook hasn’t been as rosy at Fenway Park, as the Red Sox have been very inconsistent since that 2018 title.  On the heels of consecutive last-place finishes in the AL East, Craig Breslow replaced Chaim Bloom as the team’s chief baseball officer, and Breslow now has his first true blockbuster trade as a front office executive.

Starting pitching has been a known need for the Red Sox all winter, and Boston just signed Lucas Giolito yesterday to help address the rotation mix.  While moving Sale diminishes from the number of available arms, the trade does free up some money to help make other moves, and the Sox simply might’ve wanted a more reliable starting pitching option than the injury-plagued Sale.  Plus, adding six years of team control over a promising player like Grissom is a nice return for the Sox at the cost of $17MM.

Grissom immediately fills Boston’s need for second base help.  An 11th-round pick for Atlanta in the 2019 draft, Grissom has torn up minor league pitching during his four seasons in the Braves’ farm system and quickly got himself on the radar for a big league call-up.  Grissom hit .291/.353/.440 over 156 plate appearances in 2022, though followed up with a more modest .659 OPS in just 80 PA last season.  Given a chance at the everyday shortstop job, Grissom fell behind Orlando Arcia on the depth chart, and ultimately spent most the season at Triple-A since the Braves wanted him to play regularly rather than ride the bench.

Grissom has spent much of his minor league career as a shortstop, yet there has been some question about his long-term viability at the position.  Moving to second base or third base was difficult on a Braves team with Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley already in place, so Grissom had been getting some reps as an outfielder as a possible candidate to fill the club’s left field vacancy.  However, the acquisition of Jarred Kelenic from the Mariners also seemed to close that door.

No such position blocks exist in Boston, as the Red Sox might well just install Grissom as their Opening Day second baseman.  He fits Breslow’s preferred add of a right-handed hitter, and Grissom’s glovework could or should work out well at the less-demanding second base position.  Getting Grissom in the fold could now relegate Enmanuel Valdez, Pablo Reyes, or Rob Refsnyder to pure backup duty or perhaps even as trade chips, while Ceddanne Rafaela now looks even likelier to be used as an outfielder (and Rafaela might yet be a trade candidate himself).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Alex Anthopoulos, Craig Breslow Discuss Chris Sale Trade

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The Braves and Red Sox got together on a major trade earlier today where Boston swapped left-hander Chris Sale and cash considerations to Atlanta in exchange for infielder Vaughn Grissom. In the aftermath of the deal’s announcement, Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow both spoke to reporters about the deal and what’s next for their organization as 2023 comes to a close.

Anthopoulos spoke glowingly of Sale in the aftermath of the deal, describing him to reporters (including Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) as a “playoff-caliber starter” while noting that adding such a pitcher to the club’s rotation was a major goal for the Braves this offseason. With right-hander Kyle Wright having undergone shoulder surgery and been shipped to Kansas City earlier this offseason, the club had little certainty behind its front-of-the-rotation duo of Spencer Strider and Max Fried.

Veteran righty Charlie Morton figured to slot into the #3 spot in the rotation, but posted the highest full-season walk rate of his career in 2023 and celebrated his 40th birthday last month. Meanwhile, youngster Bryce Elder started the season strong but faded down the stretch with a 5.49 ERA across his final 15 starts. The addition of Sale, a seven-time All Star who posted a 3.16 ERA across his final 15 starts last season, adds an arm with potentially elite upside to the club’s mix while also bolstering the club’s overall pitching depth to help make up for the departure of Wright. As noted by The Athletic’s David O’Brien, Anthopoulos made clear that Sale is “locked” into the club’s rotation for 2024 alongside Fried, Strider, and Morton.

Of course, it can’t be ignored that Sale has managed just 31 starts over the past four years due to injuries, including Tommy John surgery. Anthopoulos acknowledged the injury concerns that come with adding the veteran lefty, but noted that “anyone you acquire, there’s risk” while also adding that “it was a shot we wanted to take” thanks in part to Anthopoulos’s strong belief in Sale’s ability and makeup.

“We think he’s an absolute perfect fit with our group,” Anthoupolos said, “We’ll get to know him and we’ll do everything we can to put him in the best position to stay healthy and have success.”

When discussing the club’s plans for the remainder of the offseason, Anthopolous remained vague, noting that the offseason has no set end point and that moves continue to happen even into Spring Training. He went on to note that the club will “keep an open mind” for the remainder of the offseason. It wouldn’t be a shock if the club was done with the heavy-lifting of its offseason at this point, as they’ve already bolstered the pitching staff with Reynaldo Lopez and traded for a starting left fielder in Jarred Kelenic in addition to the acquisition of Sale.

On the other end of the trade, Breslow called moving on from Sale “a really tough, tough decision” when speaking to reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe), particularly considering Sale’s legacy as a key piece of the club’s 2018 World Series team. At the same time, Breslow lauded Grissom for his “really strong right-handed bat” while also noting that he figures to remain under club control for the next six seasons.

“I’ve talked long about the exciting emerging core of players around whom we want to build,” Breslow said, “…we certainly count Vaughn in that group.”

Though Breslow noted that Grissom has the versatility to play all over the field, he made clear that he views the 22-year-old as the club’s everyday second baseman. That would seemingly leave veteran infielder Trevor Story poised to return to shortstop on a full-time basis. Story struggled in 43 games last season after returning from UCL surgery over the summer, but prior to that injury had a long track record as a quality, two-way shortstop that earned him a six-year, $140MM deal with the Red Sox prior to the 2022 season.

One curious aspect of the deal from Boston’s perspective is that the club has made adding to its starting rotation an explicit goal throughout the offseason, and parting ways with Sale, who in spite of his recent injuries arguably remained their highest-ceiling starter, creates an even bigger hole in their starting five. Breslow emphasized (as relayed by Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe) that the club still plans to add to its rotation even after yesterday’s signing of Lucas Giolito, and that the club views both free agency and the trade market as potential avenues for a deal. Speier relays that Breslow noted the importance of the club being willing to part with prospects in order to acquire “quality, controllable starting pitching.”

The club has recently been linked to a reunion with left-hander James Paxton while also frequently being connected to top remaining rotation arms such as Jordan Montgomery and Shota Imanaga. Of course, there are plenty of other players still available who could represent an upgrade for the club’s rotation including Marcus Stroman and Yariel Rodriguez in free agency or Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber on the trade market. A trade would likely become an even more attractive route for adding to the rotation if the club’s reported pursuit of outfielder Teoscar Hernandez winds up successful, as it would add an everyday bat to the outfield mix and make the likes of Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela easier to part with in trade.

Free Agent Profile: Marcus Stroman

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The free agent market has been slower than usual this winter, but one area of the market that has stayed fairly consistently active throughout the offseason has been the starting pitching market. More than half of the league entered the offseason in hopes of acquiring a starter or two this winter, and deals have come together for many of them. While the Yoshinobu Yamamoto sweepstakes have held things up for many top-of-the-market options, potential mid-rotation arms have seen no such delay in free agency as players like Kenta Maeda, Lucas Giolito, Seth Lugo, Eduardo Rodriguez, Michael Wacha, and Nick Martinez have all been among the players to come off the board since free agency officially opened in early November.

That flurry of activity has left the pickings fairly slim in this area of the market, even as the top of the market still features the likes of Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery and plenty of lower-level options like James Paxton and Sean Manaea remain available. One mid-rotation piece who has yet to be taken off the market is right-hander Marcus Stroman, who opted out of the final year and $21MM on his contract with the Cubs to test free agency last month. Since Stroman’s decision, there has been little public interest in the right-handers services. The Royals reportedly engaged with the righty earlier this offseason, though the club added both Lugo and Wacha to their rotation since then and appear to be done making significant additions to the roster.

It’s somewhat understandable that Stroman hasn’t generated major interest so far this offseason. The right-hander is entering his age-33 season, meaning he’s older than the likes of Rodriguez, Wacha, and Giolito. What’s more, the righty is coming off a injury-marred campaign in Chicago where he missed six weeks due to a rib cartilage fracture and posted a brutal 8.29 ERA across his final 11 appearances with the Cubs. That clubs may be hesitant about a pitcher entering his mid-thirties who struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness in the second half last year is hardly surprising, but that lack of interest could make Stroman one of the more undervalued assets available in free agency this offseason.

After all, Stroman was among the most dominant pitchers in baseball in the first half, with a sterling 2.28 ERA in 98 2/3 innings of work across his first sixteen starts of the season. That dominant performance earned Stroman the second All Star nod of his career, and while the righty’s 3.33 FIP and .235 BABIP indicate some of that exceptional run prevention may have been due to good fortune, that FIP was still considerably better than league average and his incredible 59.9% groundball rate surely helped to explain his unusually low home run rate. Meanwhile, Stroman’s atrocious results in the second half were generally not backed up by underlying metrics; his aforementioned 8.29 ERA in the second half was more than four runs higher than his far more palatable 4.23 FIP, and his strikeout and walk rates only worsened slightly as he punched out 19.3% of batters faced while walking 9.6%.

Taken together, Stroman’s 2023 season paints a picture of a playoff-caliber, mid-rotation arm: the right-hander posted a 3.95 ERA (113 ERA+) with a 3.58 FIP in 136 2/3 innings of work while striking out 20.7% of batters, walking 9%, and generating grounders at a 57.7% clip across 27 appearances (25 starts). That was good for the 18th-best FIP in baseball last year among pitchers who made at least 25 starts, sandwiched between Montgomery and Mets right-hander Kodai Senga. If Stroman can as much as match his peripheral numbers from 2023 with improved health and batted ball luck, he figures to be a quality piece who could improve the majority of rotations around the league. And while both of his seasons in Chicago saw the right-hander miss time due to injury, Stroman has made 32+ starts four times in his career, most recently in 2021 as a member of the Mets.

The Cubs have been connected to pitchers such as Shota Imanaga in free agency and Shane Bieber via trade this offseason, and Stroman previously publicly expressed his desire to remain in Chicago long-term over the summer, ahead of the trade deadline. While a reunion between the sides has not been rumored to this point in the offseason, the Cubs certainly remain a fit for the righty’s services as they look for an additional arm to pair with Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, and Jameson Taillon in the rotation. Looking beyond Chicago, the Red Sox are in the hunt for pitching and could benefit from pairing Stroman’s stable, mid-rotation production with higher variance pitchers like Giolito and Brayan Bello, while the Giants, Padres, Yankees, and Rangers are among the many teams who could look for rotation upgrades going forward this offseason.

Though many of those clubs would surely prefer to add a player such as Snell, Montgomery, or even Imanaga to their rotation mix, each of those southpaws is expected to garner $100MM or more on the open market. At this point in the offseason, teams hoping to add a playoff-caliber starter without breaking the bank will be hard-pressed to find a better option than Stroman, who was projected by MLBTR for just two years and $44MM in our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list. That appears to be more or less par for the course in the mid-rotation market, as Giolito landed a two-year, $38.5MM deal with the Red Sox while Lugo received a three-year, $45MM guarantee from the Royals. If Stroman does garner a similar contract to the other mid-rotation arms available this winter, it’s easy to imagine the deal proving to be among the more cost-effective pitching signings of the offseason should he manage a full, healthy season in 2024.

Orioles Sign Michael Perez, Albert Suarez To Minor League Deals

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The Orioles announced seven minor league deals this afternoon, with catcher Michael Perez and right-hander Albert Suarez standing out as the only two with previous major league experience.

Perez, was a fifth-round pick by the Diamondbacks in the 2011 draft but didn’t make his major league debut until 2018 as a member of the Rays. Perez spent three seasons in Tampa backing up Wilson Ramos and, later, Mike Zunino. Those three seasons saw Perez get into just 84 games total, where he slashed a meager .221/.286/.314 in 228 trips to the plate. That weak performance eventually led the club to designate Perez for assignment as they sought to revamp their catching corps following their AL pennant-winning 2020 season.

Perez then returned to the NL to serve as the backup to Jacob Stallings in Pittsburgh for the 2021 season after being claimed off waivers from the Rays. While Perez appeared in a career-high 70 games for the Pirates in 2021, he only managed an anemic .143/.221/.290 slash line in 231 plate appearances. Despite that weak performance, Perez remained with Pittsburgh to start the 2022 season before eventually being traded to the Mets just before the trade deadline that summer.

The Mets eventually designated Perez for assignment in October before reuniting with him on a minor league deal later in the offseason. Perez then managed to secure a spot on the 40-man roster back in May following the placements of Omar Narvaez and Tomas Nido on the injured list, but the veteran journeyman appeared in just three games for the Mets throughout the year, as he spent most of his 2023 campaign at the Triple-A level. The Mets ultimately outrighted Perez off the roster when the offseason arrived, and he departed for minor league free agency.

Now in Baltimore, Perez figures to act as non-roster depth for the Orioles behind the club’s catching tandem of Adley Rutschman and James McCann alongside fellow minor league signing David Banuelos, who has no major league experience but slashed an impressive .270/.369/.526 at the Double-A level for the Twins last year.

As for Suarez, the 34-year-old right-hander last appeared in the major leagues in 2017 as a member of the Giants. For his career, the righty sports a 4.51 ERA and 4.40 FIP across 115 2/3 innings of work in the majors. Since then, Suarez briefly appeared with the Diamondbacks at the Triple-A level before trying his luck overseas. The righty managed a 3.00 ERA in 162 innings of work in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball before moving on to the Korea Baseball Organization, where he pitched for the Samsung Lions for two years. In that time, Suarez appeared in 49 games for the Lions, 48 of them starts. The righty struck out 19.4% of batters faced while posting a 3.04 ERA in 281 2/3 innings of work for the Lions before ultimately being released to make room for right-hander Taylor Widener back in August.

After half a decade overseas, Suarez is now returning to stateside ball as a member of the Orioles organization, where he figures to serve as non-roster pitching depth who could pitch both out of the rotation or in the bullpen. It’s a role he shares with Tucker Davidson, who the club outrighted to the minor leagues earlier this offseason. Suarez figures to compete alongside the likes of Davidson, Mike Baumann, and Bruce Zimmermann for a role on the big league club this spring.

Blue Jays Interested In Gio Urshela

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The Blue Jays had interest in signing Gio Urshela this offseason, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports.  It isn’t known if Urshela is still on the Jays’ radar, as Nicholson-Smith notes that Toronto’s recent deal with Isiah Kiner-Falefa might’ve already addressed the club’s apparent need in the utility infield market.

There hasn’t been much buzz about Urshela this winter, which isn’t surprising given the injury-shortened nature of the infielder’s season.  Urshela didn’t play after suffering a pelvic fracture in June, ending his 2023 campaign after 62 games with the Angels.  Based on the initial timeline given for Urshela’s recovery, he should be ready by the start of Spring Training, though there wasn’t enough time remaining for him to both rehab his injury and ramp up prior to the end of the Angels’ regular-season schedule.

Urshela hit .299/.329/.374 over 228 PA with Los Angeles while bouncing around the diamond at all four infield positions.  Most of Urshela’s action came at third base in place of the injured Anthony Rendon, and the vast majority of Urshela’s playing time in his eight MLB seasons has been as a third baseman.  The Outs Above Average metric hasn’t been a fan of Urshela’s third base glovework while the Defensive Runs Saved (+10) and UZR/150 (+3.9) metrics have given positive grades to 4620 1/3 big league innings at the hot corner.

Urshela has also shown some quality at the plate, particularly when he hit .310/.359/.523 over 650 PA for the Yankees during the 2019-20 seasons.  This rather unexpected breakout earned Urshela a regular spot in New York’s infield mix, though a somewhat injury-marred down year made him expendable, and the Yankees dealt Urshela to the Twins as part of their big five-player swap in March 2022.

While Urshela didn’t quite reach his offensive heights from his time with the Yankees, he still had a solid bounce-back year, hitting .285/.338/.429 in 551 PA in Minnesota.  Despite these good numbers, the Twins dealt Urshela to L.A. last offseason, in part due to Minnesota’s crowded infield picture and in part due to Urshela’s escalating arbitration salary (a projected $9.2MM, which ended up being $8.4MM after he lost his arb hearing in search of a $10MM salary).

If healthy, the 32-year-old Urshela could be at least a decent signing for a team in need of infield help, with some higher-ceiling potential if Urshela can even replicate his 2022 numbers, let alone his two big Yankees years.  It makes sense that the Blue Jays would’ve had him on their target list given their infield needs this winter, plus Toronto is quite familiar with Urshela due to his past time in their organization — he briefly played for the Jays in 2018, appearing in 19 games at the Major League level.

The Blue Jays’ plans at third base may hinge on whether or not the team can re-sign Matt Chapman, but if Chapman departs, it isn’t out of the question that the Jays could still pursue Urshela even with Kiner-Falefa already in the fold.  IKF’s lack of offensive pop makes him an imperfect answer as a starting third baseman, so if Kiner-Falefa is viewed more as a utility piece, Urshela’s higher-caliber bat and still-solid glove could make him a better option for a regular third base role.

White Sox Designate Carlos Perez For Assignment

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The White Sox have designated catcher Carlos Perez for assignment, the team announced.  The move creates roster space for Chris Flexen, whose one-year, $1.75MM deal with Chicago is now official.

Not to be confused with older brother Carlos Eduardo Perez (also a catcher and a veteran of five MLB seasons), Carlos Jesus Perez is a 27-year-old backstop who was an international signing for the White Sox back in 2014.  Perez has hit .264/.314/.389 over 2402 career plate appearances in Chicago’s minor league system, and he has played in 34 games for the Sox at the Major League level over the last two seasons.  Over his small sample size of 71 trips to the plate in the Show, Perez has hit .209/.254/.343 with one home run.

Catcher has been a target area for the Sox this winter, as Martin Maldonado and Max Stassi were both acquired to bolster the team’s depth behind the plate.  With Korey Lee also on the roster, top prospect Edgar Quero perhaps in line for a big league debut in 2024, and Chuckie Robinson recently signed to a minor league deal, Perez is now the odd man out.

The White Sox could keep him in the organization as even more depth if he clears waivers and is outrighted off the 40-man roster, but with a number of catchers already on board, Chicago might opt to just release Perez entirely.  Since teams are constantly looking for catching help, Perez might not have much trouble landing with another club on a minor league deal heading into Spring Training.

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