Which Is The Best Team In The AL East?
Just over a week ago, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald discussed the National League Central, which is arguably MLB’s most tightly-contested division. While no other division compares to that projected dogfight, the American League East provides the Central with a worthy rival in that regard as the only other division that Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projects to not include a 90-loss team. Indeed, there’s an argument to be made that the battle for the AL East this year figures to be even more hotly contested. After all, PECOTA projects both the Pirates and Reds to finish with a lower win total than any of the teams in the AL East, while Fangraphs projects the East as the only division in the majors without a sub-.500 club.
That projection systems see the AL East as a division with five potential contenders is supported by last year’s results. The Orioles led the pack last season with a 101-win record, capturing the division title despite a strong showing from the Rays, who finished two games behind Baltimore. Both Tampa and Toronto also managed to make the postseason last year, while New York and Boston both remained on the periphery of the playoff picture into September despite ultimately coming up short. Since then, each club has seen significant changes, and with the likes of Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery still on the market, it’s easy to imagine one or more of these club’s further improving their stock prior to Opening Day. In the meantime, let’s take a look at where things stand in the American League’s most competitive division:
Orioles: 101-61 in 2023, FG projects 85 wins in 2024, PECOTA 86.2
The Orioles were perhaps the most surprising team in baseball last year, surging to the club’s first AL East title since the 2014 season thanks to contributions from youngsters like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Grayson Rodriguez. Those same young players will be back this season and figure to be joined by consensus #1 overall prospect Jackson Holliday at some point this season, perhaps as soon as Opening Day. The club’s exciting young core figures to once again be complemented by solid veterans such as Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander as well, giving them a strong offensive nucleus with which to attempt to continue their reign atop the East.
With that being said, the club has seen some turnover this winter. Veteran starter Kyle Gibson departed the rotation via free agency this winter, and while the club swung a deal earlier this offseason to acquire former Brewers ace Corbin Burnes to front their rotation, dealing away promising southpaw DL Hall and infielder Joey Ortiz could be something of a blow to the club’s depth headed into the season. More noticeably, two key pitchers from the 2023 season are entering the season with significant injuries: closer Felix Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery late last year and figures to miss all of the 2024 campaign, while right-hander Kyle Bradish faces a lengthy absence of his own due to a UCL issue after leading the Baltimore rotation last season with a sterling 2.83 ERA across 30 starts.
While the injuries faced by Bradish and Bautista leave the Orioles without two of their top pitchers to open the season, the additions of Burnes and veteran closer Craig Kimbrel should help to soften those blows, and with youngsters such as Holliday, Cade Povich, and Coby Mayo all on the verge of contributing at the big league level, there’s plenty of reason to believe Baltimore can remain in the upper echelon of the league headed into 2024 as long as the club’s young stars can avoid taking a step back this season.
Rays: 99-63 in 2023, FG projects 86 wins in 2024, PECOTA 86.9
The Rays started the 2023 campaign on an incredible hot streak, winning a record-breaking 13 consecutive games to open the season last year thanks to strong pitching performances from the likes of Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, and Shane McClanahan. Unfortunately, each of those aforementioned arms underwent season-ending surgery last year and are expected to miss at least the first half of the 2024 campaign, if not longer. Tampa’s rotation mix was further weakened by the club dealing right-hander Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers back in December, leaving the club with little certainty in the starting mix outside of Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale. Another major loss from a production standpoint is shortstop Wander Franco, who posted 4.6 fWAR in 112 games last year but is facing sexual abuse charges in his native Dominican Republic that put his future in the majors in doubt.
Even with that hefty number of losses, however, the Rays still figure to be a force to be reckoned with headed into 2024. After all, the club sports one of the deepest lineups in the game, led by the likes of Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Isaac Paredes and Randy Arozarena. In addition to that group, the club sports plenty of young talent with the likes of Junior Caminero, Josh Lowe, and Curtis Mead all expected to contribute at the big league level at some point this season on the positional side. Meanwhile, the pitching staff boasts intriguing youngsters like Taj Bradley, Shane Baz, and offseason acquisition Ryan Pepiot, each of whom are likely to join Civale and Eflin as rotation pieces this season. The club’s perennially excellent bullpen continues to look strong as well, with a back-end trio of Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, and Colin Poche bolstered by offseason additions such as Phil Maton.
Given the number of significant absences the Rays are facing entering the season, it’s not necessarily surprising that projections systems expect the club to take a major step back in 2024. The club figures to rely on the likes of Jose Caballero and Taylor Walls in place of Franco at short and young, unproven arms like Bradley and Pepiot in place of established power arms like McClanahan and Rasmussen. Even so, the club’s deep lineup and strong bullpen figure to keep the club in contention for the AL East crown this season, particularly if the youngsters in the rotation find success in the big leagues.
Blue Jays: 89-73 in 2023, FG projects 85 wins in 2024, PECOTA 88.6
The 2023 season was a strange one in Toronto, as key stars such as Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. took steps back at the plate to leave the club with a surprisingly tepid offense. That didn’t stop the Jays from contending last year, however, as the club managed to sneak into the final AL Wild Card spot with an 89-win campaign thanks to a strong performance from the club’s starting rotation. Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi, and Chris Bassitt each combined to give the club above-average production while making more than 30 starts a piece, and veteran southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu managed to step into the rotation and provide solid back-end production when youngster Alek Manoah struggled badly throughout the season.
Entering the offseason, the club seemed poised to make big changes as they were connected to the likes of Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, though they ultimately ended up having a much quieter offseason. After watching the likes of Matt Chapman and Brandon Belt depart in free agency, the club brought in the likes of Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Justin Turner to fill the void at third base and DH while adding to their pitching depth with the addition of Yariel Rodriguez. Those minor moves leave the club likely to look for internal improvements as they hope to return to the postseason in 2024. Some of that improvement could come from the club’s young talent, with top pitching prospect Ricky Tiedemann likely to debut sometime this year while the likes of Davis Schneider and Ernie Clement figure to attempt to establish themselves in larger roles.
While the club’s lineup took a bit of a hit this winter after a disappointing 2023 campaign, a robust pitching staff figures to keep the Blue Jays afloat this season even if the offense fails to take a step forward. It’s easy to imagine the club returning to the postseason in 2024 if stars like Bo Bichette, Guerrero, and Springer can deliver impactful performances, especially if the club gets strong production from its supporting cast of hitters like Turner, Schneider, and Daulton Varsho.
Yankees: 82-80 in 2023, FG projects 89 wins in 2024, PECOTA 94.7
After missing the postseason for the first time since 2017 and barely escaping the 2023 season with a winning record, the Yankees wasted no time this winter in looking to improve the club’s postseason chances for year two of Aaron Judge‘s nine-year megadeal with the club. That included a complete retool of the club’s outfield mix as the club acquired Juan Soto, Trent Grisham, and Alex Verdugo to complement Judge on the outfield grass while balancing a lineup that leaned too right-handed in 2023. The blockbuster deal for Soto and Grisham cost the club plenty of big league pitching talent, including the likes of Michael King and Randy Vasquez, though New York went on to patch up the club’s starting rotation by landing veteran right-hander Marcus Stroman in free agency.
That lengthy offseason shopping list seems likely to leave them in strong position to contend this season even as they lost the likes of Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, and King from last year’s club. Even as the club added a quality mid-rotation arm, solid outfield regulars, and a superstar bat to its mix, however, it’s possible the club’s most impactful improvements could come internally after the club dealt with a hefty number of injuries last year. Judge followed up his 2022 AL MVP-winning performance with another season that saw him post an OPS north of 1.000 in 2023, though he was limited to just 106 games by a toe injury. Meanwhile, southpaws Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon both struggled badly with injuries and ineffectiveness last year but still carry front-of-the-rotation upside when healthy, while veteran hitters like Stanton and Anthony Rizzo could also benefit from improved health this season and rebound from difficult 2023 campaigns.
Of all the clubs in the AL East, it’s easy to make the argument that the Yankees did the most to improve this winter. While even those additions may not be enough to catch up to the club’s divisional rivals on their own after an 82-win campaign, improved health from the club’s key regulars both on the mound and in the lineup could certainly help the club avoid missing the postseason in back-to-back campaigns for the first time since the 2013 and ’14 seasons.
Red Sox: 78-84 in 2023, FG projects 81 wins in 2024, PECOTA 79.2
It’s been a strange offseason in Boston, as the club began the winter with promises of a “full throttle” approach to the 2024 season and a goal of improving the club’s rotation. Despite those major plans, the club has generally opted for smaller moves throughout the winter. Perhaps the club’s most notable move was parting ways with longtime ace Chris Sale in a trade that netted the club young infielder Vaughn Grissom, while Sale’s spot atop the club’s rotation appears poised to go to right-hander Lucas Giolito.
The club also added outfielder Tyler O’Neill in a trade with the Cardinals while signing veteran closer Liam Hendriks to a two-year deal, though the righty won’t impact the team until the second half at the earliest as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Those moves more or less leave the club in a similar position as they were last season, with Giolito replacing Sale while O’Neill and Grissom figure to replace Adam Duvall and Turner in the club’s lineup. While the club’s most significant offseason losses have been replaced in one form or another, other departures such as those of James Paxton, Alex Verdugo, and John Schreiber have all gone unanswered to this point in the winter.
Despite the club’s many question marks, there’s some reason for optimism in Boston, thanks to the young talent that could impact the club this year. In addition to Grissom serving as a potential solution at second base, Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, and Brayan Bello took significant steps forward last year and could prove to be core pieces for the club, while youngsters like Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela could also impact the club this season after making brief cameos in the majors last year. It’s certainly possible to imagine Trevor Story returning to the form that once made him a star with the Rockies now that he’s further removed from the elbow troubles that cost him much of last season, and Masataka Yoshida could be an impactful bat if he can recreate his performance from the first half of 2023 over the full season this year. Meanwhile, the rotation features a handful of interesting youngsters such as Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, and Kutter Crawford, any of whom could prove to be an impactful arm if they manage to take a step forward this year.
————————
On the heels of a 2023 season that saw three of the division’s five teams make the postseason and its fifth-place finisher end the season with a better record than the fourth place finishers of four other divisions, it’s perhaps not a surprise that the AL East figures to once again be among the most competitive divisions in baseball this year. After a busy offseason in the division, which team do you think will come out on top? Was the Yankees’ splashy offseason to put them back in the driver’s seat? Will another year of development for the young players in Baltimore allow them to repeat their dominant 2023 campaign? Will the deep rosters of the Rays or Blue Jays manage to outlast the competition? Or could the Red Sox outperform the projections and take the division on the back of their young players and rebound candidates?
Which team in the AL East is best? Have your say in the poll below!
Which Is The Best Team In The AL East?
-
Orioles 52% (6,078)
-
Yankees 28% (3,344)
-
Blue Jays 8% (908)
-
Rays 6% (715)
-
Red Sox 6% (689)
Total votes: 11,734
Giants Notes: Davis, Pederson, Ahmed
San Francisco’s reported agreement with third baseman Matt Chapman last night added an elite defender and quality hitter to a lineup that’s already added Jung Hoo Lee and Jorge Soler this winter as the Giants look to bolster their offense after posting a 93 wRC+ as a team last year, which was a bottom-ten figure in the majors. With that being said, the deal seemingly leaves another veteran bat without a clear home in J.D. Davis.
Davis, 31 next month, is set to hit free agency after the 2024 campaign and seems unlikely to find a regular role in San Francisco this season with Soler at DH, Chapman at the hot corner, and LaMonte Wade Jr. and Wilmer Flores expected to handle first base. That reality could spur the Giants to make a trade in the near future, per Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. The veteran infielder hit a roughly league average .248/.325/.413 in 144 games with the Giants last year, but had established himself as a well-above average bat in the four years prior to the 2023 campaign, slashing .276/.363/.457 with a 127 wRC+ during that time. That upside could make Davis an attractive target for a team lacking in certainty at the infield corners, such as the Cubs, Mariners, or Brewers, potentially allowing the club to shed his $6.9MM salary and free up additional payroll space for a possible pursuit of southpaw Blake Snell.
For Davis’s part, he told reporters (including Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle) that the club’s decision to sign Chapman was “definitely surprising,” adding that he hadn’t communicated with the front office regarding the decision of his future to this point before referencing the club’s handling of veteran shortstop Brandon Crawford during his final year with the club and free agency this winter.
“I didn’t get a phone call, Brandon Crawford didn’t get a phone call,” Davis said, as relayed by Rubin. “It is what it is. It’s part of the business. I know every management is different in how they handle things and that’s just one of the characteristics you just have to live with.”
More from around San Francisco…
- While Crawford recently expressed disappointment regarding how his tenure in San Francisco ended, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes that no such acrimony exists between the club and slugger Joc Pederson, who departed the club to sign with the Diamondbacks earlier this winter. While Pederson told Slusser that he retains a strong relationship with both president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and that the Giants even made him an offer this winter, though he added that Arizona “expressed more interest” and presented him with a stronger offer. Pederson spent the past two seasons playing for San Francisco, slashing a strong .255/.351/.470 in 255 games with the club across the two campaigns.
- Shortstop Nick Ahmed recently spoke to reported, including The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly, regarding his decision to sign with the Giants on a non-roster deal this spring. The two-time Gold Glove award winner had spent parts of ten seasons with the Diamondbacks prior to becoming a free agent for the first time in his career back in September, and the soon to be 34-year-old veteran indicated that while he had some conversations with the Cardinals this winter before they signed Crawford to a one-year deal last month. With that being said, Ahmed indicated that he was enticed to sign in San Francisco when Zaidi and manager Bob Melvin indicated to him that he would have the opportunity the everyday job at shortstop with the club this spring. A career .234/.288/.376 hitter, Ahmed has made up for a lack of offensive production throughout his career with elite defensive numbers and figures to battle with youngsters Marco Luciano and Casey Schmitt for the shortstop job throughout the final month of Spring Training.
NL East Notes: Braves, Lile, McNeil, Garrett, Rogers
Because Atlanta Braves Holdings Inc., is a publicly-traded company, their obligatory financial reports provide an annual peek into the Braves‘ business dealings, and Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution shared the details of the company’s disclosure earlier this week. ABH Inc. reported $641MM in revenue in 2023 from the Braves and the associated ballpark village next to Truist Park known as The Battery Atlanta — this figure represents a sizable jump from the $589MM in revenues from 20222. Between Truist Park’s opening in 2017 and the success of the Battery as an attraction outside of just Braves gamedays, the Braves have seen revenues soar from $262MM in 2016 to last year’s $641MM number, with only a dip in 2020 due to the pandemic.
However, ABH Inc. still reported an overall operating loss of $46MM for 2023. As per the team statement, baseball-related operating costs “increased primarily due to higher player salaries, including offseason trade activity in the fourth quarter, as well as increases under MLB’s revenue sharing plan.” The operating profit for 2023 stood at $38MM, but dropped into the red due to $13MM drops for stock-based compensation and $71MM in depreciation and amortization. (Tucker notes that “large deductions for depreciation and amortization are believed to be common for MLB teams.”)
The revenue increase has gone hand-in-hand with a big increase in the Braves’ payroll, as Atlanta is set to far exceed its club-record $205MM payroll from 2023. The Braves are currently projected (as per RosterResource) for a payroll close to $228MM and a luxury tax number of $270MM. After paying into the tax for the first time last season, the Braves have now gone well beyond the initial CBT threshold, as their projected $270.3MM tax number is now approaching the third penalization tier of $277MM. The front office’s aggressive strategy of locking up star players to extensions has both increased spending but also built a powerhouse team that is expected to again contend for a World Series title.
Some more items from around the NL East…
- Nationals outfield prospect Daylen Lile was stretchered off the field in a scary incident in today’s Spring Training game. While attempting to catch a home run, Lile went over the right field fence and took a bad landing, drawing immediate calls for medical attention from Red Sox pitchers in the bullpen. Lile reportedly gave a thumbs up while being removed from the field, according to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. A second-round pick in the 2021 draft, the 21-year-old Lile missed all of the 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, and is ranked by Baseball America as the 11th-best prospect in Washington’s farm system. [UPDATE: Manager Davey Martinez told Janes and other reporters that Lile will undergo a CAT scan. Lile apparently landed hard on his lower back after his fall, but was able to move his feet.]
- Jeff McNeil is dealing with some left biceps soreness and won’t hit for a few days, Mets manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters (including Mark W. Sanchez of the New York Post). McNeil is still able to participate in fielding drills since he throws with his right arm, though his left arm continues to be a concern given how McNeil has a partially torn left UCL. The thought was that McNeil would be fine after an offseason of recovery rather than surgery, and a biceps issue doesn’t necessarily hint at any further UCL damage. The former NL batting champion and two-time All-Star is looking to bounce back from an underwhelming .270/.333/.378 slash line over 648 plate appearances in 2023.
- Marlins manager Skip Schumaker provided media (including the Miami Herald’s Jordan McPherson and MLB.com) with some updates on starters Braxton Garrett and Trevor Rogers. Garrett has been dealing with soreness in his left shoulder for a couple of weeks but has been throwing bullpen sessions and is on “normal progression now” towards throwing a live batting practice, Schumaker said. Rogers is tentatively scheduled to make his Grapefruit League debut in a 20-pitch outing on Tuesday, as the Marlins have been building him slowly in camp in the aftermath of an injury-riddled 2023 season. Rogers threw a live batting practice session on Thursday that left Schumaker impressed, as the southpaw “was throwing 93-94 mph in a setting with not much adrenaline.”
Blue Jays Notes: Chapman, Manoah, Tiedemann, Rodriguez
Matt Chapman‘s tenure with the Blue Jays ended for good when the third baseman signed with the Giants yesterday, scuttling any chances of a possible return to Toronto. The Blue Jays’ additions of Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Justin Turner didn’t entirely close the door on the possibility that Chapman and the Jays could perhaps reach some sort of deal, especially since we just saw Cody Bellinger (like Chapman, a Boras Corporation client) re-sign with his former team on a short-term contract with multiple opt-outs.
The Jays had also been linked to Chapman’s market earlier this winter, and their interest in retaining Chapman dated back well before he entered free agency. Back in November, TSN’s Scott Mitchell reported that Chapman had at some point turned down an extension offer worth more than $100MM over four or five years. Mitchell added more detail in a post on X earlier today, saying the Blue Jays’ offer was actually a six-year pact worth $120MM.
Chapman ended up with a three-year, $54MM guarantee from San Francisco, and the third baseman can opt out of the deal after either the 2024 or 2025 seasons. Based on sheer dollar value alone, it is easy to second-guess Chapman’s decision to reject Toronto’s extension offer at the moment, though six years and $120MM would’ve seemed like something of a bargain for Chapman for much of the 2023 campaign. Even though a finger injury contributed to Chapman’s big dropoff at the plate late in the season, MLBTR still projected him to land six years and $150MM this winter, owing to both his still-excellent defensive play, his outstanding advanced metrics, and the lack of position-player depth in the rest of the free agent class.
However, a bustling market never really seemed to develop. The Mariners, Cubs, Blue Jays, and Giants ended up being the only teams publicly linked to Chapman, and the third baseman ultimately chose the shorter-term deal with San Francisco, with the opt-out giving him a chance for a quick re-entry into free agency next offseason. He’ll bank $20MM in salary from the Giants before making that decision, and a more consistent 2024 season will likely position Chapman for a more lucrative long-term deal (and he won’t be attached to qualifying-offer compensation). While simply signing that extension with the Blue Jays would’ve erased any of this future uncertainty, Chapman seems willing to bet on himself in having a better platform year.
From Toronto’s perspective, it isn’t known if the Jays (or any other teams) had also floated this type of player option-heavy shorter-term deal to Chapman at any point. If the Blue Jays were indeed out of Chapman, Mitchell wonders if payroll constraints might have been a factor, as the Jays are on pace for their second straight year with a club-record payroll, as well as a second year over luxury tax overage. RosterResource estimates Toronto’s tax number at around $248.6MM, and re-signing Chapman to an $18MM average annual value would’ve put Toronto well over the second tier ($257MM) of luxury tax penalization, and inching closer to the third tier that begins at $277MM.
It could be that the Jays are satisfied enough with Kiner-Falefa, Turner, and the in-house infield options that they were comfortable moving on from Chapman even at a reduced price tag. Or, perhaps the Jays did make Chapman a similar offer to the Giants’ contract, but Chapman simply preferred to return to the Bay Area and re-unite with Bob Melvin, his old manager from his days with the Athletics.
Turning to some news from the Blue Jays’ spring camp in Dunedin, manager John Schneider told reporters (including MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson) that Alek Manoah won’t throw for a few days after feeling some soreness in his right shoulder during a bullpen session. An MRI didn’t reveal any structural damage, so Manoah will be re-evaluated in a few days’ time. According to Schneider, Manoah said his shoulder felt “a bit cranky, so we wanted to be extra careful at this point.”
While there isn’t any indication that the injury is anything more than basic soreness, the shoulder issue adds to Manoah’s status as the biggest question mark on the Blue Jays roster. After seemingly breaking out as a frontline pitcher in 2021-22, Manoah struggled badly in 2023, posting a 5.87 ERA in 87 1/3 big league innings. Manoah spent the offseason under a changed nutrition and training plan, but his first spring outing wasn’t promising, as he allowed four runs on three hits and three hit batters over 1 2/3 innings last Tuesday.
Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, and Yusei Kikuchi are Toronto’s top four starters, with Manoah somewhat tentatively penciled into the fifth spot. Bowden Francis seems like the top candidate on the depth chart should any holes open in the rotation, with Schneider also citing Mitch White and non-roster invite Paolo Espino. Top prospect Ricky Tiedemann is more likely to begin the season at Triple-A, and Tiedemann is only getting back to regular prep work after missing some time with minor inflammation in his calf and hamstring.
Yariel Rodriguez is another new face in camp, as the right-hander is looking to make his MLB debut after signing a five-year, $32MM free agent contract. Apart from the World Baseball Classic, however, Rodriguez didn’t pitch in 2023, as he spent the year preparing to jump to the majors after spending his first eight pro seasons in the Cuban Serie Nacional and with Nippon Professional Baseball’s Chunichi Dragons.
Given this long layoff, it isn’t surprising that Rodriguez has some rust, and Schneider told Sportsnet and other media yesterday that Rodriguez had some back spasms earlier in camp that delayed his prep work. The righty is slated to throw a bullpen session today and is “feeling 100 per cent right now,” according to Schneider. “That was kind of our plan, to take it slow and really get him acclimated. But he should have enough time to hopefully ramp up to multiple innings when he does get into games,” the manager said.
Murphy: Wade Miley “50-50” To Be Ready For Opening Day
TODAY: Murphy told Rosiak and other reporters today that Miley is dealing with soreness in his throwing shoulder. While there was no update yet on a timeline, Murphy indicated the injury might not be too serious, as Miley “played catch, played through it. Hasn’t had any problem since. We just want to go slow because of his history.”
YESTERDAY: Brewers left-hander Wade Miley may not be ready for Opening Day, manager Pat Murphy tells Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Murphy said it’s a “50-50” shot that Miley is ready for the opener but declined to provide any details. “We’ll let you know more in about 10 days,” he said.
It’s a vaguely ominous update that comes out of nowhere, as there hasn’t been any previous reporting to suggest that anything was up with Miley. He hasn’t yet appeared in a Spring Training contest, but that’s true of a lot of pitchers at this relatively early stage of the spring.
Meaningful conclusions can’t be drawn without more information but the rotation depth in Milwaukee is weaker than it has been in a long time, so any kind of uncertainty will be concerning. Brewers fans have been able to enjoy a staff fronted by co-aces Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff for the past few years, but that won’t be the case in 2024. Burnes has been traded to the Orioles while Woodruff will be out for much of the year recovering from shoulder surgery.
On paper, the rotation now projects to be fronted by Freddy Peralta, followed by some combination of Miley, Jakob Junis, Colin Rea, DL Hall, Joe Ross, Aaron Ashby and Janson Junk, with plenty of uncertainty in that group. Junis has done some solid work of late but mostly in a swing role, having not topped 112 innings since 2019. Rea had a decent season in Milwaukee last year but that was his first meaningful big league action since 2016. Hall is not too far removed from being a notable prospect but there are concerns about his control and workload. Ross didn’t pitch in the big leagues in the past two years due to Tommy John surgery, the second of his career. Ashby missed all of last year after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his throwing shoulder. Junk has just 32 big league innings and a 4.42 ERA in his Triple-A work.
Amid all of that uncertainty, Miley was going to be one of the more reliable options, despite his own history. Now 37 years old, he hasn’t topped 170 innings since 2015. Only twice since 2017 has he thrown more than last year’s 120 1/3 innings. He missed time last year due to a left lat strain and left elbow discomfort but still made 23 starts, though elbow and shoulder issues limited him to just 37 frames the year prior.
While there’s no clarity on what’s currently holding back Miley or how serious it is, his personal injury history and the lack of established rotation options is undoubtedly a situation worth monitoring for the Brewers. Despite the losses of Burnes and Woodruff, the club still aims to contend this year, having spent money on players like Junis, Rhys Hoskins and Gary Sánchez to help them defend their division title.
If the club eventually decides it needs further additions, there are still options available in free agency at this late stage of the winter. It would be a shock to see the low-spending Brewers pursue a marquee name like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery but a run at someone like Michael Lorenzen, Jake Odorizzi or old friend Eric Lauer isn’t out of the question. RosterResource lists this year’s club payroll at $109MM. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the club had an Opening Day payroll of $119MM last year and $132MM the year prior.
There could perhaps be some powder dry there for another move, even though we’re now in the month of March. Another alternative could be for the club to turn to its prospect depth. Robert Gasser and Jacob Misiorowski are two of the club’s most notable prospects, though neither is on the 40-man roster and Misiorowski has made just five starts above High-A.
Vaughn Grissom Likely To Miss Opening Day Due To Groin Strain
Vaughn Grissom will probably have to wait a bit longer to make his official Red Sox debut, as manager Alex Cora told reporters (including WEEI’s Rob Bradford) that the second baseman has been sidelined by a groin strain. The severity of the injury isn’t yet known, though it is serious enough that Cora was doubtful that Grissom would be ready for Boston’s season open on March 28 in Seattle.
Grissom has yet to see any Grapefruit League action at all due to a prior hamstring problem, so between that injury and now the groin strain, his first spring camp in a Red Sox uniform hasn’t been particularly memorable. It seems likely that Grissom will start the season on the 10-day injured list, as he’ll need time to both get healthy and then get some work in either at Spring Training proper or in extended spring camp to get himself at full readiness for regular-season games.
Amidst a relatively quiet offseason for the Red Sox, the club’s acquisition of Grissom stands out as its most headline-grabbing move. The Sox traded Chris Sale and $17MM (to partially cover Sale’s salary) to the Braves in exchange for Grissom, with the intent of installing Grissom as a long-term answer at second base. The position had been both a revolving door and a weak link for the Red Sox, but the Sox are hopeful that second base is now covered for the rest of the decade since Grissom is controlled through the 2029 season.
As an 11th-round pick for Atlanta in the 2019 draft, Grissom’s quick rise to the majors has been something of a surprise, particularly given the playing time lost during the canceled 2020 minor league season. The Braves are known for aggressively promoting certain prospects they feel they can provide immediate help at the big league level, and Grissom’s huge numbers in the minors earned him a 41-game look in the Show in 2022, with Grissom hitting .291/.353/.440 over 156 plate appearances.
This impressive start hinted at a larger role and perhaps the everyday shortstop job for Grissom in 2023, though Orlando Arcia ended up taking that role and Grissom spent most of last season at Triple-A Gwinnett. While Grissom continued to hit well at Triple-A, he had only 80 PA (hitting .280/.313/.347) in the majors since the Braves prioritized regular playing time for Grissom in the minors, and due to the durability of Arcia and mostly every member of Atlanta’s regular lineup.
Cora said that Enmanuel Valdez is the likeliest candidate to fill second base in Grissom’s absence, and players like Pablo Reyes, Rob Refsnyder, Romy Gonzalez, or Bobby Dalbec could also pick up the slack. The Red Sox were known to be looking for some position-player depth this week and signed C.J. Cron to a minor league contract, though Cron is a first-base only player. It seems possible the Sox might keep looking for a middle-infield type to further bolster their depth given Grissom’s situation.
Harold Castro Signs With Mexican League’s Toros De Tijuana
The Toros de Tijuana of the Mexican League announced the signing of Harold Castro for the 2024 season. The left-handed hitter had been one of the more experienced infielders still on the open market.
Castro, a Venezuela native, has appeared in 450 major league games over the last six years. He spent the first five seasons with the Tigers. Castro hit for high averages, but a lack of walks and power production left him as a slightly below-average offensive player overall. He ran a .284/.309/.377 slash line in more than 1200 plate appearances with Detroit before being non-tendered.
The Rockies added Castro on a minor league pact last offseason. He made the team out of Spring Training and spent the entire year in Colorado. Despite playing his home games at Coors Field, Castro didn’t maintain the offense he had for the Tigers. He hit .252/.275/.314 with one homer in 99 games. Colorado cut him loose at the end of the season.
Castro has played every position aside from catcher in his major league career. While there’s some value in that willingness to bounce around, he hasn’t been a great fit at any position. Public metrics have graded him as a below-average defender at every spot, with particularly poor grades for his work on the left side of the infield.
Injury Notes: Scherzer, Donovan, Lodolo, Chang
Max Scherzer is one of a trio of key Rangers starters who’ll open the season on the injured list. The three-time Cy Young winner underwent surgery in mid-December to repair a disc herniation in his back. The team announced at the time that the injury would keep him out of action into June or July.
It appears things are going well in the early stages of Scherzer’s rehab process. Manager Bruce Bochy told MLB Network this week the team envisions the star righty being back on an MLB mound by June (X link). The veteran skipper said that’s “a little bit earlier” than the team initially expected. Bochy indicated the club was shooting for a July return for offseason signee Tyler Mahle and a potential August timetable on Jacob deGrom, both of whom are working back from Tommy John procedures.
A few other health notes around the league:
- Brendan Donovan is preparing for a rebound after his 2023 season was cut short. An injury to his throwing arm initially required the Cardinals infielder to move to designated hitter. With the team out of contention by the trade deadline, Donovan shut things down and underwent season-ending surgery. While that was initially reported as a flexor tendon repair in his forearm, Donovan clarified to John Denton of MLB.com that he actually had an internal brace procedure to fix the UCL in his elbow (on X). The 27-year-old is back in action this spring and should split most of his time with Nolan Gorman between second base and DH.
- Reds starter Nick Lodolo was limited to seven appearances in 2023 because of a stress reaction in his left tibia. That bothersome issue kept him out of action from mid-May on. The southpaw apparently isn’t quite at 100%. Lodolo has yet to make his Spring Training debut because of residual leg discomfort on days after his bullpen or live batting practice sessions, manager David Bell told reporters (link via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The Reds are sending Lodolo for additional testing on the bone before deciding on the next step in his build-up process. That’s at least somewhat alarming, although Bell said the team is still hopeful that Lodolo will avoid opening the season on the injured list.
- The Rays lost one of their depth infielders to what’ll be a fairly significant injury. Yu Chang will be out six to eight weeks after suffering an oblique strain, manager Kevin Cash told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (relayed on X). That was the concern when the team revealed that Chang was dealing with left side soreness earlier in the week. The defensive specialist is in camp on a minor league contract. He had a shot at securing an Opening Day bench spot, particularly with Taylor Walls opening the season on the IL, but that’s no longer in play. The Rays have declared José Caballero their expected starter at shortstop. Recent free agent pickup Amed Rosario is on hand as a multi-positional option who’d likely be Caballero’s primary backup.
Angels Stretching Jose Soriano Out As Starter
The Angels will build José Soriano up as a starting pitcher in camp, manager Ron Washington announced this morning (link via Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com). The right-hander is scheduled to start tomorrow’s matchup with the D-Backs, in which he’ll throw three innings.
Soriano is going into his second big league season. He pitched exclusively out of the bullpen as a rookie, logging 42 innings across 38 appearances. Soriano was one of the team’s better relievers, working to a 3.64 ERA. He punched out 30.3% of opposing hitters behind an excellent 14.8% swinging strike rate. Over half the batted balls he did allow were hit on the ground.
While his MLB work was in relief, Soriano had a track record of starting in the minors. He worked from the rotation into Low-A ball in 2019. Prospect evaluators considered the 6’3″ hurler an intriguing starting pitching prospect at that time, but injuries wrecked his next three seasons.
Soriano blew out his elbow in Spring Training 2020 and underwent Tommy John surgery. The Angels left him off the 40-man roster despite being eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Pittsburgh selected him with the first pick in that winter’s Rule 5 proceeding, aiming to stash him on the injured list while he completed his rehab.
That netted Soriano big league pay and service time but not the major league opportunity for which he’d been hoping. He felt recurring elbow pain during his minor league rehab and required a second Tommy John procedure that June. Pittsburgh sent him back to the Angels that winter instead of carrying him on the 40-man roster for a second rehab. Soriano missed almost all of 2022, only throwing 13 low minors innings on his rehab.
With almost three full seasons wrecked by elbow injuries, using Soriano in relief last year was prudent. He stayed healthy and was able to tally 65 1/3 frames between Double-A and the majors. The organization evidently hasn’t given up hope of him as a starter over the long haul. They’ll at least give him the chance to compete for a rotation role in camp.
The Angels aren’t alone in that regard. Teams like the Braves (Reynaldo López), Giants (Jordan Hicks), White Sox (Garrett Crochet) and Rays (Chris Devenski) have at least considered rotation roles for former relievers this spring. Tampa Bay has been particularly successful with this kind of move in recent years, moving each of Drew Rasmussen, Jeffrey Springs and Zack Littell from bullpen to rotation jobs.
Of course, injuries suffered by Rasmussen and Springs hint at the downside. Some pitchers (e.g. Jameson Taillon, Nathan Eovaldi) have stuck as starters despite having two Tommy John surgeries in their past. It’s not particularly common, though, so Soriano’s injury history could lead to questions about whether he’d hold up as starter. He’d at least be on an innings limitation in 2024. Soriano has never thrown more than 82 1/3 innings in a professional season. The Angels aren’t going to ask him to make 30 starts this year.
There’s also simply the question of whether Soriano has the command to stick. While he’s capable of overpowering hitters, he walked more than 12% of batters faced a year ago. He’d need to improve upon that as a starter, with the Angels hoping he can dial in his command as he gets further from the three-year layoff. Soriano worked mostly with a mid-80s curveball and a pair of upper 90s fastballs (sinker/four-seam) in relief. His breaking ball is already one of the best in the majors, but he didn’t use a changeup at any point in 2023.
The Angels have built this offseason around their bullpen. They’ve added Robert Stephenson, Luis García, Adam Cimber, Matt Moore and José Cisnero in free agency. The Halos haven’t directly addressed the rotation, although their volume approach to the bullpen could increase their comfort in giving Soriano a real chance to crack the starting five.
Washington has made clear the Halos will go with a five-man rotation in the post-Shohei Ohtani era. Barring a late addition from outside the organization, they’re set to go with Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval, Griffin Canning and likely Tyler Anderson as the top four. Soriano joins Chase Silseth, Zach Plesac, José Suarez and another potential rotation convert Andrew Wantz in the battle for the last spot.
Brewers Sign Kevin Herget To Minor League Deal
The Brewers recently signed right-hander Kevin Herget to a minor league contract. He’s in big league camp and made his spring debut yesterday, tossing a scoreless inning of relief with two strikeouts against Texas.
Herget became a minor league free agent at the start of last offseason. The 32-year-old had logged a career-high MLB workload with the Reds a season ago. He pitched in 14 games and tossed 24 1/3 innings of mostly low-leverage relief. He allowed 5.18 earned runs per nine with a well below-average 12.4% strikeout rate. Herget missed more bats at the Triple-A level, where he fanned 22.7% of opponents in 47 1/3 frames. His 5.13 ERA in the minors wasn’t far off his big league work, largely on account of an elevated home runs rate (1.52 HR/9).
A former 39th-round pick, Herget has spent a decade in professional baseball between five organizations. He first reached the majors two seasons back, making three appearances for the Rays. Herget has logged 31 1/3 innings of 5.74 ERA ball at the highest level. He owns a 4.25 mark over parts of six seasons at Triple-A.
Herget brings plenty of upper minors experience to Milwaukee camp. He’s likely to start the year as a long relief depth option at Triple-A Nashville. He still has a pair of minor league options remaining, so the Brewers could freely move him between the majors and Nashville if they add him to the 40-man roster at any point.