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Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

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Uncertainty seems to be the running theme of the Red Sox right now. Though they have World Series championships not too far in the rear-view mirror, recent seasons have seen them cut payroll and wind up in a middle ground between a rebuilding club and a frontline contender. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom was recently fired and the search to find his replacement hasn’t yet shed light on which direction the franchise is heading.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Rafael Devers, 3B: $313.5MM through 2033
  • Trevor Story, SS: $100MM through 2027 (includes buyout on 2028 club option; Story can opt-out after 2025 but club can negate that by picking up option)
  • Masataka Yoshida, OF: $72MM through 2027
  • Chris Sale, LHP: $27.5MM through 2024 (includes 2025 club option with no buyout)
  • Garrett Whitlock, RHP: $16.75MM through 2026 (includes buyout on 2027 club option; deal also has ’28 club option)
  • Kenley Jansen, RHP: $16MM through 2024
  • Justin Turner, IF: $13.4MM player option with $6.7MM buyout
  • Chris Martin, RHP: $7.5MM through 2024
  • Rob Refsnyder, OF: $1.85MM through 2024 (includes club option for 2025 with no buyout)

Option Decisions

2024 financial commitments (assuming no options are triggered): $129.1MM
Total future commitments (assuming no options are triggered): $555.1MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Urías, McGuire

Free Agents

If there were an award for the least consistent club in the majors, the Red Sox would be in the running. In the past 20 years, they have four World Series championships, more than any other team. But they have also finished last in the American League East six times in that stretch, including each of the two most recent campaigns.

As mentioned up top, the recent skid cost Bloom his job, which means the first order of business is to figure out who makes the decisions now. Various high-profile names have taken themselves out of the running, such as Mike Hazen, Kim Ng, Jon Daniels, James Click, Michael Hill, Derek Falvey, Sam Fuld and Brandon Gomes. Most of those executives have other commitments that would make it hard for them to consider a move to Boston, but it’s also been suggested that the appeal of the job might not be very high.

The higher-ups in Boston have given very short leashes to their executives recently. Ben Cherington was put in charge in October of 2011 but was replaced as the club’s baseball decision maker by Dave Dombrowski in August of 2015, despite the fact that the club had won the World Series in 2013. Dombrowski was then dismissed in 2019, even though he also brought a title to Boston the year prior, getting replaced by Bloom. With Bloom now out the door as well, it’s been quite a while since anyone has even lasted five years, despite the club’s many successes. It has also been suggested that the new hire won’t have much autonomy, with Álex Cora seemingly entrenched as manager and several other important jobs already filled.

It would be understandable if the gig weren’t viewed by everyone as a dream job, but there are only 30 of these to go around and there is still plenty of interest. Gabe Kapler, Craig Breslow, Thad Levine, Neal Huntington, Eddie Romero and Paul Groopman have been publicly reported to have been interviewed and it’s possible there are others who have sat down for a chat without it being leaked.

Once a hire is made, there will perhaps be more clarity on how the franchise envisions itself moving forward. But regardless of who eventually gets chosen, they will undoubtedly face challenges in improving the club’s chances going forward. The American League East doesn’t have weak spots, with each of the Orioles, Rays and Blue Jays having made the playoffs in 2023. The Yankees were bit by the injury bug and finished fourth but they will certainly be aggressive in the hopes of putting this season behind them.

Whether a hire has been made by the start of the offseason, the front office will have some formalities to attend to. Both Corey Kluber and Joely Rodríguez are sure to have their options declined after injury-marred seasons in 2023. Justin Turner figures to opt out after another strong season at the plate. $13.4MM is a strong salary for a player his age but the $6.7MM buyout means he only needs to find another $6.7MM in free agency in order to break even. The Sox will miss his bat but will likely need the designated hitter spot for other guys.

How aggressive the Sox will be for 2024 is an open question and likely won’t be answered until the front office business is complete. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the club’s payroll was one of the top five in the league for much of the century but they’ve dropped down since, settling at 12th place in 2023. Perhaps they will sign off on more spending after having reset their luxury tax status this year, but it also wouldn’t be a shock for a new exec to take a year to slow-play things and evaluate the franchise, an approach that is common.

When factoring in estimated arbitration salaries, Roster Resource pegs the club’s 2024 payroll around $167MM and their competitive balance tax figure at $187MM. Non-tendering depth infielder Luis Urías would knock those numbers down a few million, but the club isn’t too far from the $181MM payroll they had this year. They have a bit more room on the CBT side of things, with next year’s base threshold at $237MM, but it’s unclear if the club plans to spend up to or over that line.

The roster has its share of uncertainty, particularly on the pitching side of things. Chris Sale is coming off a somewhat encouraging season in 2023, as his 102 2/3 innings and 20 starts were more than he threw over 2020-2022 combined. But the results weren’t to his previous levels, with a 4.30 earned run average on the year. Perhaps he can fare better next year when he will be further from his injury struggles, but he will also turn 35 in March.

Nick Pivetta posted an ERA of 6.30 in his first eight starts and got bounced to the bullpen in May. He was able to get things back on track from there, with an ERA of 3.16 the rest of the way, finishing back in the rotation with a 4.04 ERA on the year overall. Brayan Bello made 13 appearances in 2022 but got a fuller audition in 2023, which resulted in some solid but not outstanding results. He registered a 4.24 ERA with a tepid 19.8% strikeout rate, though he limited walks and got heavy doses of ground balls.

Kutter Crawford had a 4.04 ERA this year with good peripherals, though it’s unclear if that’s sustainable since he’s never been a highly-touted prospect. Tanner Houck has shown some potential, but injuries have continually kept him in the range of 100-120 innings. The same is largely true for Garrett Whitlock, though he hasn’t even reached 100 frames since 2018.

Having six semi-plausible starting pitchers isn’t a terrible place to be in, but there isn’t much locked in, especially in the long-term. Sale is entering the final guaranteed year of his deal and Pivetta only has one arbitration season remaining. It wouldn’t be a shock to see the Sox add someone here, though it might not be a top-of-the-market name, depending on where they plan to set payroll. Pitchers like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Aaron Nola are destined for nine-figure contracts, but the Sox could perhaps set their sights on arms like Sonny Gray or old friend Eduardo Rodriguez. Beyond them are veteran bounceback candidates like Marcus Stroman, Jack Flaherty or Lucas Giolito.

The bullpen has a bit more clarity, with veterans Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin each having another year remaining on their respective deals. Josh Winckowski, John Schreiber and Brennan Bernardino have shown promise to varying degrees and should have the inside track for jobs on next year’s club. That still leaves plenty of room for a free agent addition, though any investment here could be on the modest side with Jansen and Martin already giving the club strong high-leverage options. On the other hand, if the new front office decides to make 2024 a sort of evaluation year, maybe Jansen or Martin find themselves on the trade block.

On the position player side of things, the catcher position is probably the most wide open. The Sox gave plenty of runway for Connor Wong and Reese McGuire in 2023, though neither of them took firm hold of the job. They each posted a matching wRC+ of 78 with so-so defensive grades. Wong was great with the running game but poor in terms of blocking and framing, whereas McGuire was generally middling across the board.

Investing in a veteran backstop and non-tendering McGuire would be sensible, though the free agent options aren’t terribly exciting. Mitch Garver and Tom Murphy have strong bats but generally struggle to stay healthy. Austin Hedges and Martín Maldonado have strong reputations as defenders and pitching staff leaders but they’re both poor hitters. Gary Sánchez is arguably the best of the bunch but his half season in San Diego was strong enough that he may have played himself into a two-year deal. The trade route could feature unproven options like Joey Bart or Iván Herrera.

The infield is half set, with Rafael Devers having third base spoken for. He will likely require a move to first base at some point since his defense isn’t strong at the hot corner, but his offense continues to be excellent and he’s under contract for another decade. Whenever it’s time to move over to first, it could be a bit tricky since Triston Casas seems to have established himself over there. He has 29 home runs in his first 159 major league games and has walked at a 14.9% clip, but his glovework isn’t strong either, perhaps leading him and Devers to someday co-exist via the designated hitter slot. But for the time being, it seems fair to expect them to stay on opposite corners.

The middle infield is far more up-in-the-air, with the investment in Trevor Story yet to pay dividends. He hit at a league-average level in 2022 and then required elbow surgery in the winter, not returning to the big leagues until August of 2023. The results were grim, as he struck out in 32.7% of his plate appearances and didn’t do much impact when he put the ball in play. His wRC+ of 48 was one of the 10 worst in the majors, minimum 160 plate appearances, with mostly catchers and bench players around him on that list. The club has little choice but to hope that Story gets back on track, given the four years left on his deal.

As for his double play partner, that’s also a question. The club has taken chances on a number of light-hitting utility guys of late, with the list including Urías, Yu Chang, Pablo Reyes, Hoy Park and Christian Arroyo. Of that group, only Reyes and Urías remain. The latter seems likely to be non-tendered after a rough season and Reyes is best suited for a bench/depth role. David Hamilton and Enmanuel Valdéz are present as optionable depth options.

The club could certainly pursue middle infield help but the options there aren’t great either. Whit Merrifield, Adam Frazier and Amed Rosario are arguably better second basemen than what the Sox currently have in-house, but each are coming off fairly unremarkable seasons.

In the outfield, Jarren Duran had a breakout season in 2023, with a .346 on-base percentage and 24 stolen bases. Even though his season was ended by toe surgery, he should be pencilled into the center field spot, at least as the strong side of a platoon. Alex Verdugo had another passable season, with offense around league average and strong defense. He figures to be in right field, though he also stands out as a possible trade candidate in his final arbitration season with a projected salary of $9.2MM. Masataka Yoshida showed some encouraging signs with his contact-heavy approach resulting in a 109 wRC+ in his first MLB season. The defense was poor, as was expected, though perhaps the Sox are comfortable using their small left field and the DH spot to diminish the effects of his glovework. Long-term, it’s not ideal to have three poor defenders battling for the DH position in Yoshida, Devers and Casas, but it’s semi-workable for now. Rob Refsnyder will be in the outfield mix as a short-side platoon guy.

Younger options could be pushing for time in that outfield mix this year, as each of Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela got into 28 big league games this year. Abreu fared better in those, but it’s too small of a sample to draw broad conclusions from. Roman Anthony is considered by some to be a Top 100 talent and has reached Double-A, perhaps putting a 2024 debut on the table. Miguel Bleis is also a highly-regarded prospect but is further away.

There may be glimmers of hope for the farm to help out at other positions as well, with catcher Kyle Teel having just been selected 14th overall in the most recent draft. Shortstop Marcelo Mayer is a consensus Top 100 guy and second baseman Nick Yorke has been on some of those lists as well. Each of those three got to Double-A in 2023 and won’t be too far from the majors.

Despite all the uncertainty, there are many things to like about this Boston club. They just went 78-84 in the toughest division in the league, with a run differential of -4. It would only take modest improvements to get them into contention for a playoff spot.

Perhaps a new hire would like to take a year to get more looks at young players like Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Anthony, Teel, Mayer and Yorke. There’s plenty of money coming off the books after 2024, with Sale, Jansen, Martin, Pivetta and Verdugo all potential free agents. Maybe some of those guys end up getting moved this winter, freeing up roster space for younger guys. They need help at catcher and in the middle infield, but there aren’t obvious solutions available in free agency and the Sox have possible long-term solutions in the pipeline.

All things considered, the ship isn’t in terrible shape. But as of right now, it’s unclear who is steering it, which direction they’re going or how fast they’ll be allowed to head there. There’s plenty of fog on the horizon but perhaps things will clear up soon.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Red Sox-centric chat on 10-24-23. Click here to read the transcript.

Tom Walker Passes Away

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Former major league reliever Tom Walker passed away today, per an announcement from the Pirates. He was 74.

“The Pirates are deeply saddened by the passing of Tom Walker,” the organization said in a statement. “Tom was a part of the Pirates local alumni group and was always looking to make an impact on others in the Pittsburgh community. Our thoughts and prayers are with the entire Walker family, including his wife Carolyn, daughter Carrie, and sons Matt, Sean and Neil, in addition to his son-in-law Don Kelly and the Kelly family.”

Walker, a Tampa native, never played in a regular season game for the Pirates. He was selected by the Orioles with the ninth overall pick in the 1968 draft. He topped out at Double-A in the Baltimore system before being selected by the Expos in the 1972 Rule 5 draft. Walker pitched three years in Montreal, keeping a sub-4.00 ERA in each season. He threw 74 2/3 innings as a rookie and topped 90 frames in each of the following two years.

After the 1974 campaign, the Expos traded him alongside catcher Terry Humphrey to the Tigers for starter Woodie Fryman. Walker logged a career-high 115 1/3 innings over 36 appearances (including nine starts) in Detroit. One year later, the Tigers sold his contract to the Cardinals. Walker pitched a season in St. Louis, then returned to Montreal as a free agent. He made 11 appearances as an Expo and closed his MLB career with one game for the Angels in 1977 after California claimed him on waivers. Walker signed with the Pirates for 1978 but didn’t make the MLB roster. He retired after eight games for Pittsburgh’s Triple-A affiliate.

While Walker didn’t take the mound in Pittsburgh, he was a longtime resident of the city and had strong family connections to the organization. Walker’s son Neil Walker played with the Bucs from 2009-15, spending the bulk of that time as Pittsburgh’s starting second baseman. Kelly has spent the past four seasons as Derek Shelton’s bench coach.

Cubs, Kyle Hendricks Have Reportedly Discussed Extension

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One of the Cubs’ first decisions of the upcoming offseason is whether to exercise an option on the team’s longest-tenured player. Chicago holds a $16MM option on Kyle Hendricks that comes with a $1.5MM buyout.

At the very least, the team is likely to retain the right-hander on that net $14.5MM decision. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reports that the front office and Hendricks’ representatives at Wasserman are discussing a potential multi-year pact to keep him in Chicago beyond next season. It isn’t clear how likely they are to come to an agreement.

That the Cubs are open to retaining Hendricks into 2025 isn’t especially surprising. He put together a strong ’23 campaign, turning in a 3.74 ERA through 137 innings. It was a nice return to form after he’d allowed nearly five earned runs per nine in both 2021 and ’22. The sinkerballer kept the ball on the ground at a 46.3% clip that was his highest rate since 2020. Hendricks also cut his walk rate a couple percentage points relative to the previous two seasons while inducing more soft contact.

It’s not a return to peak, when he was routinely logging 30+ starts with an ERA hovering around 3.00. He halted what looked like a possible decline, though, perhaps in part due to improved health. Hendricks had pitched through shoulder discomfort for part of the 2022 season. He was eventually diagnosed with a capsular tear and shut down that August. Hendricks never required surgery but was forced out of game action until late May.

Upon his return, he stayed healthy and took the ball every fifth day. The steady mid-rotation production was welcome for a team that lost Marcus Stroman to the injured list around the trade deadline and received middling seasons from Jameson Taillon and Drew Smyly. Aside from Cy Young candidate Justin Steele, Hendricks was arguably the team’s best starter.

The Dartmouth product turns 34 in December. An extension going into effect beyond next season would therefore begin with his age-35 campaign. That’s the age at which the Cardinals’ spring extension for Miles Mikolas takes effect. St. Louis guaranteed Mikolas $40MM over two seasons one year in advance.

Hendricks and Mikolas are broadly similar pitchers. They’re innings-eating righties whose profiles are built on elite control. As with Hendricks, Mikolas had dealt with a serious injury before posting a rebound year — in his case, soreness in a surgically repaired flexor tendon in his forearm. While Mikolas throws quite a bit harder, that has never translated to an even average whiff rate. The Cardinals hurler’s $20MM average annual value might be a touch high. Mikolas was coming off a 3.29 ERA through 202 1/3 innings in 2022, a half-run lower than Hendricks’ 2023 figure. It’s nevertheless a potential target for Hendricks’ camp.

José Quintana — a former teammate of both Hendricks and Mikolas — signed a two-year, $26MM free agent deal covering his age 34-35 seasons. Quintana had turned in a 2.93 ERA over 165 2/3 innings in his platform season after a dismal 6.43 ERA showing in 2021. Even without the benefit of open market bidding, Hendricks figures to top that sum based on Quintana’s erratic performances from 2019-21.

The Cubs have just over $100MM on the books for the 2025 season. That’s mostly tied up in position players, with only Taillon on a guaranteed deal beyond next year. Steele remains eligible for arbitration through 2027, while Jordan Wicks and Javier Assad are in their pre-arbitration seasons. Stroman has a $21MM player option for next year that looks like a borderline call; he’d be a free agent after 2024 if he opts in. Smyly is virtually certain to exercise an $8.5MM player option for next season that’d also guarantee a $2.5MM buyout on a 2025 mutual provision.

Latest On Padres’ Managerial Situation

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The possibility of a managerial change in San Diego rose back to the forefront yesterday, as the Padres granted permission for the Giants to speak with Bob Melvin. The three-time Manager of the Year, who’s familiar with both the Bay Area and San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi from his long stint with the A’s, now seems a strong candidate to leave San Diego for a division rival.

Melvin is under contract with the Padres for next season. As a result, the Friars could require compensation to approve him taking the job elsewhere. Dennis Lin of the Athletic writes that the Padres may not demand more than a marginal return to allow the veteran skipper to depart, however.

That’s a reflection of the apparently strained relationship between Melvin and baseball operations leader A.J. Preller. Multiple late-season reports indicated there was a strong divide between the two. San Diego ownership clearly doesn’t believe the situation had become untenable. After a meeting between Preller, Melvin and chairman Peter Seidler, the organization announced a few weeks ago that Melvin would return. However, the Giants’ interest could afford San Diego a fresh start while clearing Melvin’s $4MM salary. Had he been fired, the Padres would’ve remained on the hook for the money.

If Melvin heads to San Francisco, the Padres have a few internal candidates to take his place. Bench coach Ryan Flaherty and senior advisor Mike Shildt seem the likeliest options. In a piece at The Athletic, Britt Ghiroli and Lin write that the 37-year-old Flaherty is highly regarded within the organization and seemingly has a strong relationship with Preller. As a result, they suggest the former Orioles infielder appears the top internal option.

By contrast, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune casts Shildt as the in-house potential favorite. The 55-year-old has prior MLB managerial experience, having led the Cardinals from midway through 2018 until he was dismissed after the ’21 season due to what St. Louis called “philosophical differences” with the front office. (Flaherty’s only managerial experience consisted of a two-week interim stint in 2022 while Melvin was recovering from surgery.) Shildt has spent the last two years working with Preller’s front office and has been open about his hope for another managerial position.

Both The Athletic and the Union-Tribune suggest San Diego could also consider external opportunities. It’s too soon to say with certainty that Melvin is even departing, much less the position will come down to Flaherty or Shildt. Given the Giants’ stated goal of finalizing their hire before the start of free agency, there figures to be a resolution within the relatively near future.

Brewers Select Chris Roller

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The Brewers selected outfielder Chris Roller onto the 40-man roster, tweets Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel.  That’ll keep him from hitting free agency shortly after the World Series.

Roller, 27, cracks a 40-man roster for the first time in his career. A 5’11” outfielder, he entered the professional ranks as a 30th-round pick of the Dodgers out of a Waco junior college in 2017. Roller spent four years in the L.A. system before being selected by Cleveland during the minor league phase of the 2020 Rule 5 draft.

The right-handed hitter remained in the Cleveland organization for the next two and a half seasons. He spent most of 2021-22 in Double-A and was bumped to Triple-A Columbus for this year. Roller hit .222/.373/.412 in 92 games there. Milwaukee acquired him in a cash transaction on August 31. He finished the season on a tear with Triple-A Nashville, raking at a .364/.493/.618 clip in 16 contests.

Between the two organizations, Roller hit .247/.394/.449 in 396 trips to the plate. He struck out at an alarming 27.5% rate but walked in a massive 17.2% of his plate appearances. Roller plays all three outfield positions and has spent the bulk of his time in center field.

That production intrigued the Milwaukee front office enough to give him a roster spot heading into the winter. As a player who has spent parts of seven minor league seasons, he’d have qualified for minor league free agency to begin the offseason if he wasn’t on a 40-man roster. If he holds the spot all offseason, he’ll join Blake Perkins as depth outfielders behind Christian Yelich, Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer and Tyrone Taylor. Milwaukee also has an $11.5MM option on Mark Canha that comes with a $2MM buyout. Roller would still likely begin next season in Triple-A, as he has a full slate of three minor league option seasons.

Bryan Abreu To Serve Two-Game Suspension In 2024

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Major League Baseball announced the ruling of the appellate hearing for Astros reliever Bryan Abreu. While the two-game suspension for hitting Adolis García with a pitch has been upheld, the right-hander is allowed to postpone the ban until the start of the 2024 regular season.

Former big leaguer Adam Jones first reported that Abreu’s suspension would be delayed on Foul Territory this afternoon. Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 reports that the right-hander’s fine was also reduced (X link).

Abreu hit García with a 99 MPH fastball in the bottom of the eighth inning of Game 5. García had hit a go-ahead, three-run homer in his previous at-bat. After being plunked, the Rangers slugger confronted Houston catcher Martín Maldonado, leading both dugouts to empty. Abreu was ejected for what the umpiring crew (and subsequently MLB) determined was an intentional hit-by-pitch. García was thrown out of the game for arguing with Maldonado, while Houston skipper Dusty Baker was also tossed after he vehemently argued Abreu’s ejection. Houston came back to win the game on Jose Altuve’s homer in the ninth.

The pitcher was the only player suspended for the incident. Abreu’s appeal allowed him to pitch last night. Baker called upon him for one inning in an eventual 9-2 loss. Since he only tossed 20 pitches, he’ll be available for tonight’s Game 7. Abreu pitched to a 1.75 ERA in 72 regular season innings. He has tossed 7 1/3 frames of two-run ball this October.

Guardians Interested In Stephen Vogt For Managerial Vacancy

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The Guardians are looking for a new manager, with Terry Francona recently stepping aside. Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that Stephen Vogt is “emerging as a serious candidate” for the job. Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com adds that Vogt will be interviewed for the gig.

Vogt, 39 next week, played in the big leagues from 2012 to 2022, primarily as a catcher. He announced just over a year ago that he was retiring as a player and speculation almost immediately turned to his destiny as a future manager, as Vogt himself voiced such aspirations back in 2020. Bob Melvin, who managed Vogt in Oakland for many years, said that Vogt “definitely has a future in managing” at the time of Vogt’s retirement.

In January of 2023, just a few months after retiring as a player, Vogt quickly landed his first coaching gig. The Mariners hired him to be quality control coach and bullpen coach, but he’s now getting interest for managerial gigs after just one season as a coach and barely a year removed from his playing career.

It was reported last week that Vogt was going to interview with the Giants for their managerial vacancy. But reporting from yesterday seems to suggest that Melvin, who spoke so highly of Vogt, has now become the favorite for that gig. Though that decision is not final, it seems Vogt might get a shot at a managing gig even if he’s blocked by Melvin in San Francisco, with today’s news suggesting he’s got a legitimate shot at the job in Cleveland.

The rumors around the managing job for the Guardians suggest they may be looking to pivot to a first-time manager this time around. Francona had plenty of experience before getting the job, having previously managed with the Phillies and Red Sox, and was the skipper in Cleveland for 11 seasons. But their publicly-known candidates to replace him would all be first-timers. That includes external candidates like Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough, Rangers associate manager Will Venable, Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza and Giants bullpen/catching coach Craig Albernaz, as well as internal candidates such as minor league field coordinator John McDonald, hitting coach Chris Valaika, and player development director Rob Cerfolio.

Submit Your Questions For This Week’s MLB Trade Rumors Podcast!

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On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we’ll frequently answer questions from our readers and listeners.  With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.

Whether it’s a question about the postseason, discussing a past transaction, or a forward-looking question to the offseason trade and free agent markets — we’d love to hear from you!  You can send your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it.  iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Big Hype Prospects: Eder, Herz, Rincones, Montgomery, Schwartz

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After another week of action, a spate of strikeouts has cost Jakob Marsee his spot atop the hitter leaderboards. James Triantos has slipped in above him. Top pitcher status is harder to judge. Braden Nett, Davis Daniel, Ricky Tiedemann, and Jackson Jobe all have a case.
Let’s see who else merits a look.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jake Eder, 25, SP, CWS
(A/AA) 56.2 IP, 11.1 K/9, 5.7 BB/9, 6.99 ERA

A southpaw pitching prospect who was once as blue chip as they come, Eder hasn’t recovered well from Tommy John surgery. While his elbow is healthy, he’s lost velocity, movement, and command since his prospect peak. The White Sox dealt Jake Burger for Eder at the trade deadline and likely wish they could ctrl-z that decision. Following the swap, Eder coughed up an 11.42 ERA in five starts for the Sox Double-A affiliate.

On a positive note, Eder has a 3.24 ERA in 8.1 AFL innings – good for ninth-best in the league. He’s coughed up a pair of home runs to go with eight walks and 10 strikeouts. The book isn’t closed on Eder, but he needs to take an active role in writing the next chapter. The current chapter is titled TINSTAAPP.

DJ Herz, 22, SP/RP, WSH
(AA) 94.1 IP, 12.7 K/9, 5.4 BB/9, 4.01 ERA

Another southpaw traded at the deadline, Herz is widely seen as a future reliever due to a below-average fastball and breaking ball. His command is also poor. Where he stands out is his changeup. It’s a carrying pitch that should yield a Major League future. Herz continues to work as a starter in the AFL where he’s posted 18 strikeouts in 11 innings. Alas, his command woes (six walks) continue to limit his ability to pitch deep into outings. We await to see if his stuff plays up out of the bullpen.

Gabriel Rincones Jr., 22, OF, PHI
(A/A+) 533 PA, 15 HR, 32 SB, .248/.351/.427

A third-rounder in the 2022 draft, Rincones Jr. is best known for high-caliber exit velocities. He’s expected to wind up at first base due to suspect corner outfield defense and poor speed. Despite a lack of wheels, Rincones has shown aptitude on the bases – a trait that can sometimes portend a gamer’s mentality. His bat should carry him to the Majors without any major adjustments. At the very highest levels, he might prove too susceptible to breaking stuff. With players of this profile, breaking ball recognition is usually the difference between a big leaguer and a Quad-A guy. Rincones is among the top 10 AFL hitters with a .327/.462/.577 triple-slash.

Benny Montgomery, 21, OF, COL
(A+) 497 PA, 10 HR, 18 SB, .251/.336/.370

A former eighth-overall pick, Montgomery has seen his prospect status rapidly erode since draft day. Speed remains his best trait, though he also demonstrates above-average power. His contact is held back by funky mechanics. Most organizations – the Rockies among them – aren’t adept at developing players with a non-standard approach. They’re often left to sink or swim on their own. Encouragingly, Montgomery has cut down on his swinging strike rate at every level. He needs to continue that growth while doing something about the extreme 62.6 percent ground ball rate he posted this season. He also needs to improve his outfield defense where his double-plus speed helps him to recover from poor jumps and routes. He’s slashing .373/.468/.510 in the AFL, albeit with 17 strikeouts in 60 plate appearances.

JT Schwartz, 23, 1B, NYM
(AA) 277 PA, 4 HR, 4 SB, .302/.383/.437

Schwartz doesn’t have much of a shot with the Mets. He’s likely in the AFL to showcase him in front of other teams. He has the look of a future big leaguer – the sort who helps rebuilding teams trudge through another season. While Schwartz has the physical size to hit for power, his current approach is built around batting average and OBP. He’d draw more attention in the pre-Moneyball era. In 45 plate appearances, he has six doubles and two home runs along with a 1.011 OPS.

Three More

Liam Hicks, TEX (24): Hicks has low-key paced the league on the hitting side including a six-hit day. Despite the heady results, he’s not particularly impactful with the bat. His catching is of the third-string variety – he’s struggled to control the running game throughout his entire career. Other aspects of his defense draw critiques. Without an obvious position, Hicks looks like a ‘tweener whose plus discipline and contact rate could hide his shortcomings.

Kyle Manzardo, CLE (23): Manzardo, who we’ve already discussed ad nauseam in past episodes, leads the league with five home runs and 11 extra base hits. The power adjustment he showed upon joining the Guardians remains in evidence.

Oliver Dunn, PHI (26): A Rule 5-eligible second baseman, Dunn is making a case for consideration. He popped 21 home runs with 16 steals this summer while showing plus plate discipline. He’s strikeout-prone, but the power breakout renders that more forgivable. In 46 AFL plate appearances, he’s swiped nine bases to go with a 1.076 OPS, three doubles, three triples, and a dinger.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Twins Outright Jordan Luplow

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The Twins announced to reporters, including Dan Hayes of The Athletic, that outfielder Jordan Luplow elected free agency after being outrighted off the 40-man roster. Outfielder Andrew Stevenson and right-hander José De León, who were outrighted last week, also elected free agency. The removal of Luplow opens up another spot on Minnesota’s 40-man roster in advance of the offseason.

Luplow, 30, has bounced around the league quite a bit in his career, with teams often trying to deploy him as a lefty-mashing right-handed role player. He has shown enough flashes of promise in this role that he has been employed in Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Tampa and Arizona in previous seasons. His best stretch was with Cleveland in 2019 when he hit .276/.372/.551 in 261 plate appearances for a wRC+ of 141, most of that damage being done against southpaws.

He was cut by the Diamondbacks at the end of 2022 and then signed with Atlanta on a one-year deal with a $1.4MM guarantee. But he was optioned to the minors to start the year and was designated for assignment in early April, never suiting up for Atlanta at the big league level. Waivers claims would take him to the Blue Jays and Twins as the season progressed and he eventually got into 39 games in the most recent season. He hit a paltry .154/.267/.154 against righties but his .235/.350/.412 line with the platoon advantage amounted to a wRC+ of 110.

Despite that solid work in his specific role, Luplow didn’t crack the club’s playoff roster. He could have been retained for 2024 via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a salary of $1.6MM, but it seems the Twins weren’t willing to keep him around at that price point. Since Luplow was outrighted, that means he passed through waivers unclaimed.

Players with more than three years of service time or a previous career outright can reject a further outright assignment in favor of free agency. Luplow qualifies on both accounts and will now head to the open market. He will likely garner interest from clubs this winter, likely for a similar depth role to the one he filled this year.

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