Quick Hits: Red Sox, Giants, Lovullo, Angels
The Red Sox were previously reported to have interest in former Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill to head their baseball operations department, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale relays that Hill has “no interest” in leaving his role as MLB’s senior vice president of on-field operations to return to work in a front office. Hill is the latest potential candidate to decline to interview for the position, joining former Rangers president of baseball operations Jon Daniels and Arizona GM Mike Hazen.
Nightengale adds that while the Red Sox have (as previously reported) interviewed assistant GM Eddie Romero for the position, the favorite to take over for Chaim Bloom as the club’s chief baseball officer could be Phillies GM Sam Fuld. It’s unclear to this point if Fuld has interviewed for the position. He’s under contract with the Phillies through 2025 after signing an extension last winter, meaning the Phillies would have to grant the Red Sox permission to interview Fuld for the role. That being said, it’s somewhat rare for organizations to stand in the way of their personnel interviewing for a potential promotion as this would be for Fuld, who serves as the club’s second-in-command to president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who previously helmed the Red Sox from 2015 to 2019.
Other notes from around the league…
- Nightengale adds that the Diamondbacks are expected to offer manager Torey Lovullo a multi-year contract extension this winter. That’s hardly a surprise, seeing as Hazen, who the club recently extended through 2028, previously indicated that the club could look to retain Lovullo beyond the 2024 campaign in the event that Arizona went on to make the postseason. The DBacks, of course, have done far more than that, making it all the way to the NLCS after sweeping the Brewers in the Wild Card series and the Dodgers in the NLDS.
- FanSided’s Robert Murray noted yesterday that Giants bench coach and interim manager Kai Correa has been interviewed for the club’s vacant manager seat. Correa joins third-base coach Mark Hallberg as the only known candidates to interview for the position. Correa, 35, began his coaching career immediately after graduating college in 2010. He spent four seasons with his alma mater, University of Puget Sound, and another four seasons coaching for the University of Northern Colorado. His first professional coaching role came with Cleveland in 2018, for whom he served as an infield coach in the Arizona Complex League. He stayed with the organization in 2019 before joining the Giants ahead of the 2020 season in his current role as bench coach.
- Jon Heyman of the New York Post recently noted that the Angels, who have been reported to have mutual interest with Buck Showalter regarding the club’s managerial vacancy, are seeking a veteran manager for the 2024 campaign. While Showalter certainly fits that description, another candidate Heyman puts forth is Darin Erstad, who played for the Angels in 11 major league seasons and in retirement served as the head coach for University of Nebraska, with whom he spent eight seasons in the role.
Zach Plesac Files For Free Agency
Right-hander Zach Plesac recently filed for free agency, according to his player profile on MLB.com. Plesac, 28, struggled to a 7.59 ERA and 4.47 FIP across five starts with the Guardians this season before being designated for assignment back in June. His struggles continued at the Triple-A level after he accepted an outright assignment, with the righty posting a 6.08 ERA in 19 appearances for the club’s affiliate in Columbus.
Plesac made his major league debut in 2019 and had the look of a solid mid-rotation starter, with a 3.81 ERA (126 ERA+) across 21 starts in his rookie season, though his 4.94 FIP and lackluster 18.4% strikeout rate both left much to be desired. During the shortened 2020 season, Plesac took a significant leap forward, with an incredible 2.28 ERA that was 96% better than league average by measure of ERA+ and a strong 3.39 FIP. In the shortened season, Plesac’s peripherals caught up to his performance as he struck out 27.7% of batters faced while walking just 2.9%.
Headed into the 2021 campaign, Plesac looked like he’d be a stalwart of Cleveland’s rotation for years to come. That did not come to pass, however, as Plesac reverted to his previous, low-strikeout rate form in 2021 and beyond. Unlike 2019, however, his results fell back down to Earth alongside his peripherals, leaving him with a 4.49 ERA (90 ERA+) and a 4.59 FIP across 274 1/3 innings between 2021 and 2022. During that time, he struck out a measly 17.2% of batters faced, the fifth-worst punchout rate among starters with at least 250 innings pitched between the two seasons.
Now that Plesac has elected free agency, he’ll be able to look for the chance to continue his career with any of the 30 big league clubs. Given his brutal results both in the majors and at Triple-A this year, it’s hard to imagine him finding anything better than a minor league offer with a contender. That said, it’s at least feasible that a team without hope of contending next season could offer Plesac a spot in the Opening Day rotation given the upside he flashed early in his career, his relative youth, and the fact that he could be controlled beyond the 2024 campaign.
If such an offer doesn’t materialize, Plesac could be one of the more interesting depth starters to be had on a minors pact this winter. After all, even his considerably diminished performance in 2021 and 2022 was just below league average for a starting pitcher, and even a contending club could do far worse than Plesac if looking for a stopgap option to cover for a midseason rotation injury. Further adding to his value on the open market is the fact that Plesac has minor league options remaining, meaning an interested club could shuttle him from the majors to Triple-A throughout next season without exposing him to waivers.
Astros, Rangers Announce ALCS Rosters
Game 1 of the AL Championship Series is scheduled for this evening, with the Rangers taking on the Astros in Houston at 7:15pm CT. Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander (3.22 ERA) will take the mound for the Astros opposite southpaw Jordan Montgomery (3.20 ERA). Both clubs have announced their 26-man rosters for the upcoming series.
The most noteworthy inclusions on these rosters are Texas right-handers Max Scherzer and Jon Gray, both of whom were seen as possibilities for the ALCS but not guaranteed due to health issues. Scherzer has been working his way back from a teres major strain since mid-September, while Jon Gray has been on the shelf in recent weeks with forearm tightness. Scherzer is expected to join a starting group for the Rangers that already contains Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi, with some combination of Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning rounding out the group.
Gray, meanwhile, will head to the bullpen as a potential multi-inning option alongside Martin Perez. Departing the roster in deference to the two veterans are lefty Brock Burke, who allowed two runs on one hit and one walk while recording just one out during the ALDS, and Matt Bush, who has not made an appearance during the postseason this year but was also on the club’s ALDS roster.
Meanwhile, Houston’s roster features less intrigue. Right-hander Kendall Graveman was held off the roster due to ongoing shoulder troubles, as previously expected. The only change from the club’s ALDS roster is the addition of Ronel Blanco, who posted a 4.50 ERA and 5.99 FIP in 17 starts for the Astros this season and gives the club an additional multi-inning option out of the bullpen. He’ll take the roster spot of outfielder Jake Meyers, who did not appear during the ALDS against the Twins.
The rosters…
Astros
- Right-handed pitchers: Bryan Abreu, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown, JP France, Cristian Javier, Phil Maton, Rafael Montero, Hector Neris, Ryan Pressly, Ryne Stanek, Jose Urquidy, Justin Verlander
- Left-handed pitchers: Framber Valdez
- Catchers: Yainer Diaz, Martin Maldonado
- Infielders: Jose Abreu, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Mauricio Dubon, Grae Kessinger, Jeremy Pena, Jon Singleton
- Outfielders: Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, Chas McCormick, Kyle Tucker
Rangers
- Right-handed pitchers: Dane Dunning, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Jose Leclerc, Josh Sborz, Max Scherzer, Chris Stratton
- Left-handed pitchers: Cody Bradford, Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Heaney, Jordan Montgomery, Martin Perez, Will Smith
- Catchers: Mitch Garver, Austin Hedges, Jonah Heim
- Infielders: Josh Jung, Nathaniel Lowe, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Josh H. Smith
- Outfielders: Evan Carter, Adolis Garcia, Robbie Grossman, Travis Jankowski, Leody Taveras
MLBTR Poll: Reviewing The 2022-23 Free Agent Shortstop Class
Last offseason’s free agent class, while headlined by Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, is perhaps most notable for the quartet of free agent shortstops that stood near the top of the class: Trea Turner, who signed with the Phillies; Xander Bogaerts, who landed in San Diego; Carlos Correa, who returned to the Twins after physical issues scuttled deals in both San Francisco and Queens; and Dansby Swanson, who joined the Cubs. With the 2023 season all but complete and free agency nearly upon us once again, let’s take a look at the four shortstops, their performance in 2023, and their remaining contracts:
Trea Turner (Phillies)
Contract: 10 years, $272.72MM remaining covering age 31-40 seasons
Turner’s first season in Philadelphia was a difficult one for much of the year. After riding a hot stretch through the first week of the season, the next two months were nothing short of brutal as Turner slashed just .210/.259/.341 over his next 51 games. At that point in the season, the Phillies were the fourth-place team in the NL East with a disappointing 27-32 record. Of course, the team would turn things around from there, ultimately winning 90 games en route to a second consecutive NLCS appearance. As the Phillies improved, Turner followed suit, slashing a far stronger .288/.347/.517 the rest of the way. Those solid numbers are primarily thanks to Turner’s fantastic performance down the stretch this season; he slashed an incredible .317/.371/.629 in August and September. Turner’s success has continued into the postseason, as he’s slashed a whopping .500/.538/.917 during the Phillies’ postseason run to this point.
Taken together, Turner’s weak start to the season saw him post his worst campaign since 2018 as he slashed .266/.320/.459 with a 108 wRC+ while posting weak defensive metrics (-5 Outs Above Average, -12 Defensive Runs Saved). That being said, he still provided considerable value on the basepaths, going a perfect 30-for-30 in stolen base attempts, and his strong finish to the season could indicate that Turner can regain his offensive form of the previous three seasons (139 wRC+ 2020-2022). Turner’s 3.8 fWAR this season was the ninth-best mark among qualified shortstops in 2023.
Xander Bogaerts (Padres)
Contract: 10 years, $254.55MM remaining covering age 31-40 seasons
Like Turner, Bogaerts had an up-and-down start to his 2023 campaign. His first month in San Diego hardly could’ve gone better, as Bogaerts slashed .308/.400/.514 through the end of April, but a nagging wrist issue saw his production plummet in May, when he slashed just .200/.283/.263 in 25 games. From there, Bogaerts saw his production even out, as he slashed .300/.353/.462 from June 1 onward, allowing him to finish the season with stats largely in line with his consistent career numbers, even as the 82-80 Padres fell short of expectations. In 665 trips to the plate this season, Bogaerts slashed .285/.350/.440 with a wRC+ of 120. That performance is good for his sixth-consecutive season with a 120 wRC+ or better, and his eighth-consecutive full season with more than 3.0 fWAR. Defensive metrics were mixed on Bogaerts this season, as he posted a -4 DRS but a +3 OAA. Bogaerts’s 4.4 fWAR this season was the seventh-best mark among qualified shortstops in 2023.
Carlos Correa (Twins)
Contract: Five years, $166.67MM remaining covering age 29-33 seasons; four vesting options could take total to nine years, $236.67 remaining covering age 29-37 seasons
After failing physicals with both the Giants and the Mets this past offseason before returning to Minnesota, Correa saw his health remain a focal point throughout the 2023 campaign. Though he avoided the injured list for much of the year, both his offense and defense suffered as he battled plantar fasciitis for most of the season. Typically an above-average offensive threat and strong defender at shortstop, Correa posted the worst season of his career this year as he slashed just .230/.312/.399 (96 wRC+) while posting middling defensive metrics (+1 OAA, -2 DRS). That being said, after going on the injured list for the final weeks of the regular season, Correa impressed in the playoffs with a .409/.458/.545 slash line in six games as the Twins won their first postseason series since 2002. The injury marred campaign makes Correa difficult to project going forward, though as the youngest of the four top shortstops from last offseason’s class, he has youth on his side. Correa’s 1.1 fWAR this season was 17th among the 21 qualified shortstops in 2023.
Dansby Swanson (Cubs)
Contract: Six years, $163MM remaining covering age 30-35 seasons
Swanson’s first year in Chicago was a difficult one to predict, as the 29-year-old was coming off a career year in 2022 where he slashed a career-best .277/.329/.447 while posting elite defensive metrics. Ultimately, the bat fell back to Earth a bit in 2023 as Swanson slashed a solid but unexceptional .244/.328/.416 that was good for roughly league average (104 wRC+), while oscillating between considerable hot streaks (including a midsummer stretch where Swanson slugged .618 with nine home runs in 99 plate appearances) and equally significant cold stretches (including a .161/.254/.304 slash line in his final 14 games of the season). One thing that remained consistent throughout Swanson’s season, however, was his stellar defense. Swanson was the best defensive shortstop in baseball this year according to both DRS (+18) and OAA (+20), allowing him to post a strong 4.9 fWAR that was outstripped by only Corey Seager, Francisco Lindor, and Bobby Witt among qualified shortstops in 2023.
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So, one year in, which contract is looking the best to MLBTR readers? Turner remains an exciting talent on the basepaths and finished the season strong, but defensive miscues and his cold start to the season could be early signs of declining production. Bogaerts remained consistent as ever in all facets of the game, pairing solid offense with average defense, while Correa’s superstar potential took a backseat in an injury-marred season. Meanwhile, Swanson flashed incredible defense but was essentially league average on offense, as is consistent with his profile in recent years. Which player would you most like to have on your team in 2024 and beyond? Have your say in the poll below.
(poll link for app users)
Which Contract Looks The Best For 2024 And Beyond
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Trea Turner 44% (3,012)
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Dansby Swanson 35% (2,443)
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Carlos Correa 12% (796)
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Xander Bogaerts 9% (644)
Total votes: 6,895
Yuki Matsui To Explore Signing With MLB Teams
Star closer Yuki Matsui looks to be interested in a potential move to Major League Baseball, as a Yahoo Japan report (Japanese language link) indicates that Matsui has exercised his international free agent rights, as well as his rights to freely negotiate with other Nippon Professional Baseball clubs.
Matsui doesn’t turn 28 until later this month, but he has already accumulated 10 seasons with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles. As a result, the left-hander is a full free agent, and can be signed by MLB teams without an additional posting fee to the Eagles. His age and experience also make him exempt from MLB’s international bonus pool structure.
It isn’t necessarily a sure thing that Matsui is headed to North America, as the Eagles are reportedly set to offer him a four-year contract worth $1.6 billion yen (roughly $10.7MM in USD) to remain in the fold. However, Matsui has hired WME’s Bryan Minniti as an agent, which could hint that the southpaw is more interested in seeing what Major League teams have to offer. Minniti has recently moved into the representation arena after a long front office career that included stints as an assistant GM with the Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Nationals.
At least nine Major League clubs have already scouted Matsui, including the Padres, Red Sox, Cubs, and Yankees. It isn’t surprising that there is significant interest in a pitcher who is hitting the market at such a relatively young age, and who has already amassed such an impressive resume in Nippon Professional Baseball and on the international stage. Matsui was a member of Japan’s championship team at the 2023 World Baseball Classic, though he only made one appearance during the tournament, throwing a scoreless inning.
Over 501 career games with the Eagles, Matsui has a 2.40 ERA and 236 saves, and the five-time NPB All-Star is the youngest player in league history to reach the 200-save threshold. He has worked out of the bullpen for almost his entire career, except for his 2014 rookie season and during a brief return to rotation work during the pandemic-affected 2020 NPB season. Matsui’s usage has also been somewhat impacted by the Eagles’ struggles, as the team has mostly posted mostly losing records during the southpaw’s tenure. With a 10.9% walk rate over his career in Japan, control has occasionally been an issue for Matsui, though his 31.85% strikeout rate indicates that his ability to miss bats isn’t in question.
Readers of MLBTR’s NPB Players To Watch feature are quite familiar with Matsui’s name, as Dai Takegami Podziewski had frequently highlighted the closer throughout the 2023 season. Matsui had a dominant 1.57 ERA over 57 1/3 innings for the Eagles this season, and Dai noted that Matsui made the splitter a much heavier part of his pitching arsenal, perhaps as a bit of a showcase for MLB evaluators.
However, Matsui’s small role in the WBC could have been due to reported difficulty he had throwing the WBC ball, which was larger than the standard ball used in NPB play and closer to the type of baseball used in the majors. More broadly, Matsui has a relatively small frame (5’8″ and 167 pounds), so scouts may have concerns over how he might hold up over the long term, even if he has been pretty durable during his time with the Eagles.
This winter’s market for left-handed relievers has some interesting names, headlined by ace closer Josh Hader. Matsui immediately becomes an intriguing new name in this group, as at least a candidate for high-leverage innings if perhaps not strictly a saves specialist.
East Notes: Nationals, Ciolek, Orioles, Phillies, Rays
The Nationals have hired Brad Ciolek as their new senior director of amateur scouting, as initially reported by The Athletic’s Keith Law (X link). Andrew Golden of the Washington Post was the first to report Ciolek’s specific new title, and he’ll work under another new hire in scouting director Danny Haas. Both Hass and Ciolek worked together in the Orioles‘ front office from 2012-19, with Ciolek only just leaving Baltimore after acting as the director of draft operations.
The Talk Nats blog also reported that amateur scout Reed Dunn is close to joining the organization, and Ciolek and Dunn are just two of several new hires within a significantly reshaped player development system. President of baseball operations Mike Rizzo has been looking to upgrade how the Nationals identify and develop young talent, as the latest step in the team’s rebuilding process. D.C. made some progress with the big league roster in 2023, but with contention still probably at least one more years away, figuring out how to add more quality prospects to the pipeline is of major importance. Ciolek has plenty of experience on this front, as he contributed to the Orioles’ own rebuild, and the deep core of prospects that now has the O’s in great shape to contend for the next decade.
More from around the NL and AL East divisions…
- Advancing to the NLDS means that the Phillies will now need a fourth starter, and Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sanchez are set to throw simulated games on Sunday to ramp up their arms for the possible assignment, The Athletic’s Matt Gelb writes. Neither pitcher saw any action in the first two playoff rounds, and neither has pitched since September 30, hence the need for some extra warm-up. Gelb figures Walker might get the official start in Game 4 since Walker has rarely ever worked as a reliever during his career, though both Walker and Sanchez could get some action during the game, perhaps in a piggyback capacity. The Phillies haven’t yet announced their starters for the first three games, though it is expected to be Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Ranger Suarez, probably in that order.
- The Rays announced a series of internal promotions and role changes within their organization on Friday. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times has the full list, led by Blake Butera becoming the new senior director of player development. Just 31 years old, Butera will now oversee the Rays’ vaunted player development system just seven years after he was in the farm system himself as a 35th-round pick for Tampa Bay in the 2015 draft. After ending his playing career, Butera spent five years in the minors as a coach and manager in the Rays’ system, then worked as an assistant field coordinator in 2023.
Twins Notes: Payroll, Free Agents, Offseason Needs
Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and manager Rocco Baldelli met with the media Friday, speaking with reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press and The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman) about what the club might be planning heading into the offseason. Minnesota returned to the postseason as AL Central champions and won their first playoff series since 2002, advancing past the Blue Jays before falling to the Astros in the ALDS.
Building that roster came with a higher price tag than usual for the Twins, as their Opening Day payroll of roughly $153.7MM was the largest in franchise history. It isn’t yet clear how much the Twins will be able to spend to address their roster needs, or if they’ll again approach their 2023 expenditures. Since the Twins were one of the 14 teams who had broadcasting contracts with Bally Sports, their TV situation is now up in the air since the Diamond Sports Group (Bally’s parent company) filed for bankruptcy last year, and the Twins haven’t yet found a new broadcasting partner.
“That’s a reality of our offseason. It’s not just for us. It’s for other clubs, too,” Falvey said. “That’s a piece of information we’re going to have to navigate. It’s a factor that there’s lack of clarity on TV revenue. That’s a fact, that’s no secret to anybody. That plays a role (with payroll), just like all of our revenue sources play a role to some degree.”
A good chunk of money is naturally coming off Minnesota’s books in the form of free agents, though Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Michael A. Taylor, and Donovan Solano all played key roles last season and their departures would be felt. Likewise, the Twins could save more money in declining their club options on Jorge Polanco ($10.5MM) or Max Kepler ($10MM), but that creates two more holes to be filled.
As expected, Falvey didn’t share any real detail about whether or not the Twins would look to retain any of these players, speaking in generalities about how they liked their contributions and, more broadly, how the team would explore the possibility of retaining any of the group.
Speaking of Gray in particular, Falvey said “we’ll continue to have dialogue with Sonny, but that process is going to take some time to work through the part of the free agency process that he’s earned. I’m sure he’s going to be respected through this process by a whole host of clubs.”
Since Gray is expected to land one of the larger contracts of any pitcher in this winter’s free agent class, that might lean in favor of a deal with a team other than Minnesota, even though Gray has been open about his affinity for playing in the Twin Cities. Gray will surely receive a qualifying offer from the Twins and is likely to reject the one-year pact, leaving the Twins in position to recoup a compensatory pick if Gray did indeed sign elsewhere.
Maeda seems to be the likelier of the two pitches to re-sign, and Gleeman opines that a deal might be worked out between Maeda and the Twins if the Japanese righty is open to a shorter-term contract. In the event that both Gray and Maeda left, Falvey said he liked the Twins’ remaining rotation options, which arguably already make up a solid starting five in Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, and Chris Paddack.
“That’s a good group to start with, but it doesn’t mean we’re not going to think about ways to get better….I would say we’ll see where the process takes us,” Falvey said. The PBO and Baldelli both also mentioned how well Varland pitched as a reliever last year, yet indicated that there’s plenty of time left in the offseason to determine Varland’s 2024 role.
Baldelli “would anticipate” Royce Lewis as Minnesota’s regular third baseman at least heading into spring camp. Despite his ability to play multiple positions, Lewis spent more of his time at the hot corner in 2023, so it makes sense that the Twins would stick with what seems to be working. With Lewis at third base, Carlos Correa at shortstop, Edouard Julien at second, Alex Kirilloff getting most of the first base at-bats, and the versatile Willi Castro and Kyle Farmer around for depth, this might leave Polanco out of playing time, and perhaps out of luck in getting his option exercised.
Kepler’s option is a little more in flux, in part because Byron Buxton‘s ability to play center field is still in question after the former Gold Glover underwent another knee procedure. If Buxton is again limited to DH work or can’t play whatsoever, that leaves the Twins likely in search of another center field option if Taylor doesn’t re-sign. If Castro is called upon for at least part-time work in center field, that opens up another hole in the infield picture.
Offseason Chat Transcript: Toronto Blue Jays
With the Blue Jays edition of the Offseason Outlook series now posted, click here to read the transcript of the associated Jays-centric live chat.
Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays
In conjunction with this post, Mark Polishuk will hold a Blue Jays-centric chat on 10-14-23 at 7:00PM CDT. Click here to leave a question in advance.
The Blue Jays scored only one run in their two Wild Card Series games with the Twins, capping off a season of offensive disappointment. With several position-player free agents perhaps on the way out of town, the Jays will try to retool and reinvigorate a shaky lineup.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jose Berrios, SP: $101MM through 2028 (Berrios has opt-out clause after 2026 season)
- Kevin Gausman, SP: $70MM through 2026
- George Springer, OF: $67.5MM through 2026
- Chris Bassitt, SP: $42MM through 2025
- Bo Bichette, SS: $27.5MM through 2025
- Yusei Kikuchi, SP, $10MM through 2024
- Yimi Garcia, RP: $5MM through 2024
2024 financial commitments: $110.5MM
Total future commitments: $323MM
Option Decisions
- Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF: $18MM mutual option ($500K buyout)
- Chad Green, RP: $27MM club option covering 2024-26 seasons (if declined, Green has $6.25MM player option for 2024; if both options are declined, Blue Jays can then exercise a $21MM club option covering the 2024-25 seasons)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Adam Cimber (5.156): $3.2MM
- Trevor Richards (5.084): $2.4MM
- Danny Jansen (5.050): $5.2MM
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (4.157): $20.4MM
- Tim Mayza (4.156): $3.3MM
- Cavan Biggio (4.129): $3.7MM
- Erik Swanson (4.096): $2.7MM
- Jordan Romano (4.051): $7.7MM
- Genesis Cabrera (4.011): $1.4MM
- Santiago Espinal (3.149): $2.5MM
- Daulton Varsho (3.128): $5.5MM
- Alejandro Kirk (3.047): $2.6MM
- Nate Pearson (3.005): $800K
- Non-tender candidates: Cimber, Espinal
Free Agents
The Blue Jays finished 29th of 30 teams in stolen-base percentage, 27th in Fangraphs’ BsR metric (baserunning runs above average), tied for 26th in sacrifice flies, and tied for 28th in sac hits overall. Toronto also made the fifth-most outs on the bases of any club, while hitting into the fourth-most double plays. Combined with middle-of-the-pack numbers in homers and production with runners in scoring position, and it wasn’t any surprise that the Jays had issues consistently generating offense, despite respectable or even impressive numbers in other offensive categories.
It was a startling step backwards for a team that, if anything, looked to be relying on its offense to carry a seemingly shaky rotation heading into 2023. The offseason trades of Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. don’t tell the whole story of the lineup’s decline, since while Gurriel replacement Daulton Varsho struggled badly at the plate, the Jays’ larger problem was that almost all of their returning hitters took steps backwards.
Of every Blue Jays hitter who had at least 120 plate appearances for the team in both 2022 and 2023, only Cavan Biggio (from 97 to 103) improved his wRC+ over the two seasons. Several other regulars took drastic drops — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. from 133 to 118, George Springer from 133 to 104, Danny Jansen from 141 to 116, Alejandro Kirk from 129 to 96, and Whit Merrifield from 120 to 93.
The result was a season full of close, often low-scoring games that kept the Jays grinding from day one amidst the very competitive AL East race. As it turned out, the rotation (as well as a very good bullpen and excellent defense) helped carry Toronto to another wild card berth, except just like in 2022, the Jays suffered a demoralizing two-game sweep. The Twins only needed to score five runs over the two WCS games to top the scuffling Jays lineup, with base-running mistakes from Guerrero and Bo Bichette short-circuiting two of Toronto’s few possible rallies.
Some of the club’s better offensive performers are now hitting free agency, adding another layer of difficulty to the Blue Jays’ attempts to solve their hitting problems. One would imagine the Jays would have interest in re-signing Kevin Kiermaier and Brandon Belt in particular, assuming Belt plays at all next season and foregoes retirement. However, since both players stayed relatively healthy, they might be looking to move on to more lucrative deals or preferred locations elsewhere. Kiermaier, for one, has publicly expressed his preference for playing on grass fields, so he might opt to finally seek out a natural surface after 11 seasons on the artificial grass in Tampa Bay and Toronto.
Matt Chapman is in the strange position of being both one of the winter’s top free agents, yet also a player with something to prove in 2024. Chapman displayed his typically excellent third-base glovework, yet hit a modest .240/.330/.424 with 17 homers in 581 plate appearances — his 110 wRC+ was down from his 118 total in 2022. Moreover, almost all of Chapman’s best offensive moments came in April, when he won AL Player of the Month honors. From May 1 onward, Chapman had a subpar 84 wRC+ in 467 PA, and was further bothered by a finger injury over the season’s last two months.
With all this in mind, the Blue Jays might prefer to just receive draft pick compensation for Chapman, and let him walk in free agency rather than sign him to what will still very likely be a nine-figure free agent deal. The decision on Whit Merrifield is easier since the Jays won’t be exercising their end of his $18MM mutual option, but if both Merrifield and Chapman leave, that’s suddenly two starting infield positions to be filled.
Since Varsho can take over center field for Kiermaier, that would leave third base, second base, left field, and DH as the open positions if all four of Belt, Kiermaier, Chapman, and Merrifield departed. For DH, the Jays might try to replace Belt with another left-handed hitter who could semi-platoon with Kirk, and possibly seek out a lefty-swinger who could play more positions than just first base. In that scenario, the Blue Jays might not have a true regular DH at all, but instead use the spot to give multiple players half-days off. Rookie Spencer Horwitz might also factor into the picture as an in-house left-handed bat who can play first base.
(Since we’re talking designated hitters, cue the obligatory Shohei Ohtani mention. As aggressive as Toronto has been in pursuing free agents during GM Ross Atkins’ tenure, it would count as a big surprise to see the Jays win the bidding for the record-setting contract it will take to land Ohtani.)
Returning to internal options, the Blue Jays figure to go that route for one of second base or third base. Davis Schneider‘s bat came back to reality in September, but the rookie’s hot start to his career has likely earned the mustachioed fan favorite a shot at at least a platoon job heading into Spring Training. Biggio probably did enough to preserve his roster spot, but Santiago Espinal hit poorly and looks like a non-tender candidate.
Prospects Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger, and Leo Jimenez all look set to make their MLB debuts in 2024, with Martinez and Barger in particular candidates for something closer to everyday roles. Barger might ultimately be Toronto’s third baseman of the future, and while Martinez is a bit more of a question mark in regards to his eventual infield landing spot, his hitting potential is very intriguing. By contrast, Jimenez is a work in progress hitting-wise, yet his glove will make him at least a backup middle infielder on a big league roster.
The Blue Jays would probably prefer to devote just one position for some combination of their in-house players, leaving the other infield spot open for a big league regular. Infield-heavy teams like the Guardians, Cardinals, or even the division-rival Orioles could be fits as trade partners, and making a deal might be a preferred option for the Jays in finding a true upgrade since there isn’t a lot of depth in either the second or third base free agent markets.
That being said, Blue Jays president/CEO Mark Shapiro has stated that the team plans to at least match its $215MM payroll (and estimated $248MM luxury tax number, putting the Jays over the first tax line). With a good chunk of money coming off the books, this gives Toronto roughly $40-$45MM in spending capacity, and room to make another splashy move.
Looking at the infield market, then, bringing Jeimer Candelario or Justin Turner into the fold couldn’t be ruled out. Candelario would be a longer-term signing, settling in at third base at least for a couple more seasons and then possibly moving into a first base/DH capacity if his defense declines or if Barger emerges as a legitimate third base option. Turner could be an even better fit since he’d only require a shorter-term contract as he enters his age-39 season, but Turner could slide between both corner infield slots and DH as circumstances dictate. It is also worth noting that the Blue Jays targeted Turner the last time that he was both a free agent and when the Jays last had a third-base vacancy.
Left field seems like the obvious position for a new bat to be added, again probably a left-handed hitter given the righty tilt of Toronto’s lineup. Joc Pederson or former Jays targets Michael Brantley or Michael Conforto could be fits, and the resurgent Jason Heyward could be an option since the Jays will still be looking to keep their defense strong. The switch-hitting Aaron Hicks figures to get attention from Toronto and several other teams, since he’ll only cost a minimum MLB salary because the Yankees are paying the remainder of his 2024-25 salaries.
If specifically left-handed hitting outfielders aren’t a must, then a reunion with Hernandez or Gurriel can’t be ruled out. Hernandez’s numbers dropped off in his first season in Seattle, which figures to lower his free-agent price tag to some extent even if the Mariners will probably still issue him a qualifying offer. If Hernandez didn’t get a QO but was still open to a one-year pillow contract as a way of elevating his profile for next winter’s free agent market, a return to Toronto might be feasible, as the Blue Jays had interest in Hernandez back at the trade deadline.
Turning to the pitching front, the Jays will likely still add an arm or two to the bullpen, though most of their relievers are still controlled in 2024. The hard-throwing Jordan Hicks will draw plenty of interest around the league, and if he doesn’t re-sign, Toronto will look for someone else to bring some velocity to the back of the pen.
Some level of extra rotation help will be needed, since the odds of that top four starters all remaining as effective and healthy as they were in 2023 is quite slim. But, for the first time in several seasons, the Blue Jays have the luxury of a mostly settled rotation. Kevin Gausman was a Cy Young Award candidate, and Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, and Yusei Kikuchi were all very good to solid over the course of the year. For Berrios and Kikuchi in particular, they delivered tremendous bounce-back performances after struggling badly in 2022.
Hyun Jin Ryu pitched pretty well after returning from Tommy John surgery and could be a candidate to re-sign, but Ryu might be looking for a bigger contract than the Jays are willing to give considering how much money Toronto has already invested in its starters. The Blue Jays could look for couple of veteran innings-eater types to compete for the fifth starter job and to provide depth, with an eye towards promoting star prospect Ricky Tiedemann in the second half if Tiedemann pitches well at Triple-A.
Alek Manoah is still ostensibly the fifth starter heading into 2024, yet the right-hander is now an X-factor after his unusual 2023 campaign. Manoah had a 5.87 ERA over 87 1/3 innings, during a season that included a month-long stint at extended Spring Training to work on his mechanics, and no pitching appearances at all after August 10 due to unclear reasons, ranging from possible injury to some discord with the organization.
It’s anyone’s guess as to how Manoah will pitch next season, or perhaps even if he’ll pitch at all. If there are some behind-the-scenes issues souring things, the Jays might prefer to part ways with Manoah altogether via trade. Naturally his trade value is low at the moment, but since Manoah was a Cy Young candidate just in 2022, several teams will have interest in exploring if a change of scenery can revive his career.
Manoah’s situation is uniquely abnormal, yet it relates to the larger uncertainty over the players the Blue Jays were counting on as cornerstones. Atkins has done a pretty solid job of adding productive free agents and trade pieces to this core group, but the Jays now face the increasingly worrisome possibility that this core isn’t as solid as once thought. To this end, in the same way that Hernandez and Gurriel were traded to change the Jays’ offensive shape last winter, would they consider again trading from their core to remake the lineup?
It can be safely assumed that Bichette and (for contract size alone) Springer aren’t going anywhere. Varsho and Kirk would each have some trade value but as sell-low type of players given their underwhelming batting numbers. Plus, moving Varsho or Kirk would then open up another position that the Blue Jays would have to address — Varsho was basically always intended as Kiermaier’s eventual replacement in center field, while Kirk is insurance at catcher since Danny Jansen has had trouble staying off the injured list.
As wild as this concept would’ve sounded two seasons ago, could Guerrero then be a trade chip? It would still be selling low in some regard, since Guerrero was only decent at the plate in 2023 and took a big step back defensively at first base. But, Guerrero’s youth, superstar profile, and his MVP-level numbers in 2021 still give him plenty of trade value, and there are surely lots of teams who will look at his Statcast metrics and think a turn-around is inevitable. Trading Guerrero could be seen as incredibly bold or as incredibly risky, and it might not be something the front office quite wants to consider just yet.
For one, the Blue Jays might want to see how Guerrero and the other regulars might respond to a new hitting strategy, since rumors have swirled all season about the fate of hitting coach Guillermo Martinez. It has yet to be revealed how much (if any) overhaul is coming to the coaching staff, though that could be a logical way of making an internal shakeup since GM Ross Atkins has already announced that manager John Schneider will be returning in 2024.
Likewise, Shapiro announced that Atkins is returning, even if the president/CEO stated “there needs to be a higher level of transparency and communication with our players in our preparation and game-planning process.” How the Blue Jays will make these changes remains to be seen, but simply getting their hitters back to their 2022 form (even as inconsistent as that season was) would make a world of difference to the Jays going forward.
Winning solves everything, as the cliche goes, but winning 89 games and making the postseason again wasn’t enough to clear the atmosphere that seemed to grind the Blue Jays down as the season wore on. With Toronto’s fanbase becoming increasingly impatient for results, Atkins faces a pivotal offseason in determining how to fix the problems both on and off the field.
Injury Notes: Graveman, Matzek, Hoskins
Astros right-hander Kendall Graveman was unavailable for the ALDS due to discomfort in his right shoulder, and MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart relays that, per manager Dusty Baker, Graveman’s injury hasn’t improved enough to join the club for the ALCS against the Rangers. The news is a significant blow to the club’s bullpen depth, as Graveman posted a fantastic 2.42 ERA in 23 appearances with the Astros down the stretch after being acquired from the White Sox at the trade deadline this year. That brought his season-long ERA down to an impressive 3.12 figure in 66 1/3 innings of work, though his 4.88 FIP leaves something to be desired thanks to an elevated 12.8% walk rate.
Even without Graveman, Houston is set up fairly well in the bullpen thanks to a trio of Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu, and Hector Neris with whom they can close out games. This is Graveman’s second stint with the Astros, as the club previously acquired him from the Mariners in a deal ahead of the trade deadline back in 2021. He was dominant in the postseason for the club that year, posting a 1.64 ERA in 11 innings of work. Graveman is under contract in Houston for 2024 on an $8MM salary.
More injury notes from around the majors…
- Braves left-hander Tyler Matzek missed the entire 2023 campaign while rehabbing Tommy John surgery, but David O’Brien of The Athletic relayed that the southpaw should be ready to go for Spring Training in February, according to president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulous. Matzek, who is under contract for 2024 with a 2025 club option, was a first-round pick by the Rockies back in 2009, debuted with Colorado as a starting pitcher in 2014 but pitched just 63 2/3 innings in affiliated ball from 2015-2019. He returned to the majors with the Braves in 2020 as a reliever and hasn’t looked back since, with a 2.92 ERA and 3.34 FIP in 135 2/3 innings of work with Atlanta. He figures to feature prominently in the club’s late-inning mix next year alongside closer Raisel Iglesias and fellow southpaw A.J. Minter.
- Phillies first baseman Rhys Hoskins is still hoping to return to the Phillies in time for the World Series after suffering a torn ACL during Spring Training this year. While Rob Thomson told reporters (per MLB.com) that Hoskins has been “moving forward” in his rehab, it seems as though Hoskins’s role will be fairly limited with the club even in the event he’s able to return to the postseason roster. Per Thomson, Hoskins will be used “almost exclusively” as a pinch-hitter if on the roster, as playing him at DH would require the club to move Kyle Schwarber back into the outfield, a move the club isn’t inclined to make. That said, a healthy Hoskins could be a factor in the club’s starting lineup if another injury elsewhere on the roster opened up playing time at DH for him.