Athletics To Promote Zack Gelof
The Athletics are planning to add infield prospect Zack Gelof to their roster prior to Friday’s game, reports Martín Gallegos of MLB.com. The club already has a vacancy on their 40-man after losing right-hander Adam Oller off waivers to the Mariners earlier today.
Gelof, 23, was selected by the A’s in the second round of the 2021 draft. He’s generally considered to be a very talented hitter, though one with a penchant for aggressiveness that can make him strikeout prone. Last year, he played 96 games between Double-A and Triple-A, hitting .270/.352/.463 for a wRC+ of 107. He walked in 11.4% of his plate appearances but struck out at a 27.5% clip. This year, he’s played in 69 Triple-A games, striking out in 27.9% of his trips to the plate but walking in 13.3% of them. His .304/.401/.529 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 122 in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.
Defensively, Gelof was a third baseman in college but concerns around his throwing arm have led the A’s to gradually move him to second base, the only position he’s played this year. Speed could be a factor in his game as well, with Gelof having stolen 20 bases in 25 attempts this year. He’s currently considered the #3 prospect in the Athletics’ system by MLB Pipeline and #5 at FanGraphs.
The A’s have used various players at the keystone this year, none of whom have locked down a job. Tony Kemp has played regularly, though he’s hitting just .197/.286/.283 and is capable of playing other positions. It’s a similar story for Jace Peterson, who’s slashing .209/.299/.309 but is capable of moving elsewhere. Ditto for Aledmys Díaz, who’s hitting .209/.260/.286 in a multi-positional role. Jordan Diaz has hit at a subpar rate in a small sample of 32 games this year and can be optioned to the minors.
It seems like Gelof will get a chance to square off against big league pitching and see if he can take over the second base job in Oakland. This will be his first time on a 40-man roster, meaning the club can retain him for six seasons beyond this one, even if he’s up in the majors for good. Future optional assignments could potentially push that back but the focus in the immediate future will likely be on seeing how he performs. The club is the worst in the majors right now with a record of 25-67, giving them plenty of incentive to try out young players like Gelof as they try to build a better roster for future campaigns.
The Well-Timed Breakout Of Jordan Hicks
Not a lot has gone right for the Cardinals this year. They came into the season with a talented roster and hopes of contention but have repeatedly struggled to get into a groove. Their record sits at 38-52, placing them 11.5 games back in the National League Central and 11 games back in the Wild Card race. They don’t often find themselves as clear deadline sellers, having only once finished below .500 this century, which was way back in 2007. But barring a massive turnaround in the next three weeks, they will likely be selling this year, something that president of baseball operations John Mozeliak essentially admitted earlier today.
Thankfully, there are some factors that could make this a particularly fruitful sell-off for the Cards. For one thing, the expanded playoffs and some wide-open divisional races are seemingly making this year a seller’s market. The Cards have a number of controllable position players they could move without significantly hurting their chances of returning to contention next year. They also have some impending free agents of note, such as Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty.
Another impending free agent who should be garnering plenty of interest is reliever Jordan Hicks. The fireballer has been in the club’s bullpen since 2018, though Tommy John surgery in June 2019 prevented him from appearing in the latter half of that campaign or at any point in 2020.
His performance in his career has been unusual in that he has elite velocity, averaging over 100 mph on his fastball in his career. But somehow, that hasn’t translated into the huge strikeout numbers one would expect. By the end of the 2022 season, he had tossed 177 2/3 innings over 147 outings, striking out 23% of batters faced. That strikeout rate is right around league average, whereas other gas-spewing pitchers like Aroldis Chapman, Edwin Díaz or Félix Bautista often run their rates into the 40s or even the 50s.
Here in 2023, Hicks seems to have finally unlocked a new level in that department. He’s thrown 36 2/3 innings over 36 outings, punching out 32.9% of batters faced. His 13.8% walk rate is still on the high side but that’s right in line with his previous work and not too dissimilar from other late-inning arms. Chapman has walked 12.4% of batters faced in his career. Josh Hader is at 10.2% in his career and 11.3% since the start of 2020. Hicks is getting fewer ground balls than in previous seasons but his 53.5% rate this year is still well above league average.
The new strikeout rate has helped to lower his ERA to 3.93, compared to 4.84 last year and 5.40 the year before. He likely deserves even better, as his .357 batting average on balls in play is above league average and above his marks in previous seasons. His 3.47 SIERA and 3.12 FIP suggest he could get even better results if that BABIP normalizes going forward. He’s also produced these results while ascending into the closer’s role with Ryan Helsley on the injured list, with Hicks racking up seven saves in the past four weeks.
One thing that might be fuelling this breakout is a change in his pitch mix. He has primarily been a sinker-slider guy in his career, with 90% of his offerings being one of those two pitches, while also occasionally mixing in changeups, cutters and four-seam fastballs. According to Statcast, Hicks had thrown only 20 four-seamers prior to his surgery and then just nine over the past two seasons. He has thrown 73 of them this year. He’s also added a sweeper, throwing 150 of those this year, with opponents batting just .107 and slugging just .250 in plate appearances ending with that offering. The sweeper seems to pair well with his sinker/two-seamer, as shown in this tweet from Rob Friedman, aka the Pitching Ninja.
This is still just a few months of results we’re talking about, but the change in repertoire seems to point to a legitimate progression as opposed to just small sample noise. The Cardinals would surely have preferred to be in contention right now, using this new and improved version of Hicks to bolster their chances in a postseason race. But they will at least have the opportunity to squeeze some extra future value out of it via trade prior to the upcoming deadline. If he had discovered this new level of performance next year instead, they may not have benefited from it at all.
The timing is also potentially significant for Hicks personally, allowing him to go into the open market with a strong platform season if he can maintain it for the next few months. He cracked the Cardinals’ Opening Day roster in 2018 when he was just 21 years old and has never been optioned, putting him on pace to finish this season with exactly six seasons of service time and thus qualify for free agency just after he turns 27 years old in September. Relief pitchers don’t usually secure very long deals in free agency. No one has ever topped five years and contracts of that length are quite rare.
Some clubs may be skeptical given that he has a longer track record of being just okay and will have a much smaller span of time with the improvements. But we have seen clubs take significant gambles on pitchers based on limited samples before. Drew Pomeranz was a starter for much of his career but transitioned into more of a relief role in 2018 and 2019 before getting a four-year, $34MM deal from the Padres. It was a similar story for Liam Hendriks, who had been closing for two years, one of which was the shortened 2020 season, before landing a $54MM guarantee over three years from the White Sox. Robert Suarez spent most of his career in Japan before parlaying one strong MLB season into $46MM over five years.
That’s not to say that Hicks is a lock to secure a contract similar to those, especially since few of those deals have worked out well for the signing clubs, which may lead to more hesitancy in the relief market this offseason. But clubs have shown they are willing to bet on a small sample of improved results when they have reason to believe it could be carried forward. Those three pitchers were all in their early 30s when they secured their deals, whereas Hicks will be significantly younger.
Hicks has always had the velocity and now seems to be figuring out how it deploy it in a more effective way than he ever has before. With his quick rise through the minor leagues and time missed due to his surgery, he’ll be hitting the open market at an usually young age for a relief pitcher and with very few total innings on his arm. For now, he should be able to help the Cardinals recoup some extra value at the deadline before helping himself cash in this winter.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Rob Manfred Meets With Oakland Mayor To Discuss A’s Stadium Situation
Since the Athletics announced back in April that they’d agreed to purchase land for a stadium site in Nevada, a relocation to Las Vegas has seemed like a foregone conclusion. Commissioner Rob Manfred did little to dispel that notion yesterday when detailing the Athletics’ progress in the relocation application process, but he also took a meeting with Oakland mayor Sheng Thao at her request during this week’s All-Star break, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. In a separate Q&A, Thao tells Rosenthal that she requested the sit-down in large part due to Manfred’s prior public claims that the city of Oakland had not put forth a stadium proposal.
“Through the press, we have heard that Manfred has stated there was no proposal,” said Thao, who arrived at the meeting with copies of 268 pages worth of design guidelines, development plans and transactional documentation. “We wanted to dispel that notion. If people were misinformed, we wanted to make sure everybody had all the real-time information of how close we were to a ballpark.”
Fans of the A’s and other clubs alike will want to read both pieces in full. The first piece contains direct links to the hundreds of pages of material Thao brought to the presentation, while Rosenthal’s Q&A with Thao provides on-record stances from the first-term mayor, who was elected to her position back in January.
Thao repeatedly emphasized that her priority is to keep the A’s in Oakland, citing (among other factors) the larger market size, the less extreme weather and the larger plot of land for the A’s; the city’s Howard Terminal proposal includes a 100-acre real estate development, as opposed to the current nine-acre plot being discussed in Las Vegas.
Asked whether the city would be amenable to an expansion franchise following the potential relocation of the A’s, Thao replied that Las Vegas is the more logical site for an expansion club, citing the Athletics’ 50-year history in Oakland and pointing to the longstanding ties to fans in the city. Critics will surely point out the perennially poor attendance, but Thao countered by calling that factor a two-way street.
“You can’t divest from a team to make them one of the worst teams in the league — the fans know it, owners know it, everyone knows it — and then expect there to be a strong fanbase as well,” she told Rosenthal. “You can’t have your cake and eat it, too.”
For his part, Manfred simply told Rosenthal that he and Thao had a “good meeting.” He told Thao he’d pass the contents of her presentation onto MLB’s three-person relocation committee. Thao told Rosenthal the city is very much open to continuing to work with the A’s and work on its proposal. It still feels like a long shot, given that the Nevada senate recently approved the team’s stadium plan and governor Joe Lombardo recently signed a bill proposing $380MM in public funding.
Indeed, while A’s hopefuls may see a glimmer of hope with Manfred and Thao meeting, Mick Akers of the Las Vegas Review-Journal tweets that a source called the meeting “much [ado] about nothing,” adding that it’s likely “too little, too late” for the city of Oakland in its efforts to rekindle talks.
MLB To Open 2024 Season With Dodgers-Padres Series In South Korea
Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association announced the “World Tour” schedule for the 2024 season. The ’24 campaign will kick off with a two-game series between the Padres and Dodgers in Seoul on March 20-21.
Those will be the first MLB regular season contests ever played in South Korea. The league had been slated to play four exhibition games in the nation — two in Seoul, two in Busan — over the 2022-23 offseason. That event was canceled, which MLB attributed to a contractual issue with a local promoter.
While the season-opening Korean set is the most notable development, the World Tour will also again take clubs to Mexico and the United Kingdom. The Rockies and Astros are slated for a two-game set in Mexico City on April 27-28. The Padres and Giants played there this April. MLB had previously announced a two-game set between the Mets and Phillies in London on June 8-9. The Cubs and Cardinals met in England last month.
Along with the three regular season series, MLB is sending the Rays and Red Sox to Santo Domingo for a pair of Spring Training games. The Dominican Republic exhibition contests will take place on March 9-10.
MLB and the MLBPA formed the World Tour program during the most recent round of collective bargaining. The league will schedule up to 24 regular season games and 16 Spring Training contests scattered throughout Latin America, Asia and Europe over the course of the CBA.
Anthony Bemboom Accepts Outright Assignment With Orioles
The Orioles announced that catcher Anthony Bemboom, who was designated for assignment last week, has cleared outright waivers and accepted an assignment to Triple-A Norfolk. He’ll stay in the organization and provide them with some non-roster depth behind the plate.
The O’s have Adley Rutschman firmly entrenched as their primary catcher and have had James McCann in the backup role for much of the year. Bemboom has been selected to the club’s roster twice this year, with each of those stints in the big leagues corresponding with McCann’s two trips to the injured list. He got into two games in April before being designated for assignment, clearing waivers and accepting an outright assignment. The same process has now taken place again over the past few weeks, with Bemboom getting into another four contests this time, bringing his tally for the year to six.
Bemboom has now appeared in 82 games dating back to the 2019 season with a line of just .161/.236/.260 to show for it. He’s generally fared much better in the minors, including this year. He’s walked more than he’s struck out in 89 plate appearances down on the farm this year while hitting .273/.371/.377 overall. Defensively, he has +3 Defensive Runs Saved in his big league career and positive grades from the framing metrics at FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
He’s clearly comfortable with the organization, as this is the fourth time he’s chosen to accept an outright assignment since first joining the club on a minor league deal prior to the 2022 season. The O’s, meanwhile, clearly value experienced catching depth, as they have had players like Meibrys Viloria, José Godoy and Mark Kolozsvary in the organization at various points this year, along with Bemboom. With both sides seemingly content with the relationship, Bemboom will stick in Triple-A and await the next time he’s needed at the big league level.
Mozeliak: Cardinals’ Deadline Focus Will Be On 2024 Club
The Cardinals came into 2023 with hopes of contending, as they generally always do. The club has finished below .500 just once this century, back in 2007, and has qualified for the playoff in each of the past four seasons. Unfortunately, things haven’t been trending their way this year, with the Cards currently 38-52 and in last place in the National League Central.
A few weeks ago, the club’s president of baseball operations John Mozeliak spoke about how the club hadn’t yet made any concrete decisions about how to approach the deadline. But those plans seem to have firmed up recently, with Mozeliak speaking with Martin Kilcoyne of The Kilcoyne Conversation at Scoops with Danny Mac, discussing how the club is planning to make moves aimed at improving the 2024 roster.
Mozeliak says that the club won’t be “waving the white flag” but admits that “all decisions or all moves we do really will try to set us up for next year.” He goes on to say that they won’t just give players away but that they “want to get some return that’s going to help us for 2024 and that’s going to be, really, our focus as we enter the trading period.” He also admitted that there’s not really such a thing as a player who’s “untouchable” because anything can happen, but also states that “The fact is we hope we can keep our core together and then, you know, supplement it properly.”
To hear him take such a stance is hardly surprising, given their current place in the standings. They are 11.5 games out in the division and 11 back of the final Wild Card spot right now. FanGraphs currently pegs their playoff odds at just 6.3%. A hot streak between the All-Star break and the deadline could change those odds, but it seems the club is accepting that their best path forward is to make decisions with their eyes set on a fresh start next year.
The club could have also considered committing to a more significant rebuild with their sights set even further into the future, but there are reasons why it makes sense to take a more measured approach. The club came into this year with a strong roster than many predicted to win the division and that could easily be true of 2024 as well, especially since every position player on the club is still under club control for next year. The pitching staff is a different story, but some modest selling could still leave the club with a solid core for next year.
There’s also the fact that this year’s deadline seems to be lining up to be a seller’s market, with so many clubs still hovering near contention thanks to the expanded postseason and some weaker divisions. By staking out some space in the seller column, the Cards could quickly add some controllable talent to the system and then figure out how to proceed in the offseason.
In terms of impending free agents, the club will have plenty of players to shop around. Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty are each slated to reach free agency this winter and should garner plenty of interest, especially with pitching always in demand around the league. Montgomery has a long track record of solid production and is having arguably his best season to date, with a 3.23 ERA that would be a personal best. Flaherty’s 4.27 ERA isn’t quite as impressive but he’s shown better upside in the past, including his 2.75 ERA in 2019. Relievers Chris Stratton and Jordan Hicks are each having nice seasons and could also be flipped before they reach free agency in a few months’ time.
Since those aforementioned players are all rentals, moving them wouldn’t hurt the 2024 club in any way. The Cards could potentially hang onto to them and issue them qualifying offers in order to receive compensatory draft picks, though Mozeliak admitted that “Our hope is we can get more than just the pick, and so that will be what we try to do.” That also tracks with the club’s aims of continuing to compete in 2024, as they could recoup players close to helping at the major league level, whereas a draft pick wouldn’t be likely to help the club until years down the line.
There’s also an argument to be made that the Cards could trade some controllable position players in a way that helps the 2024 club. They have plenty of outfielders in the mix, including Lars Nootbaar, Dylan Carlson, Jordan Walker, Tyler O’Neill and Alec Burleson, while infielders like Tommy Edman and Brendan Donovan have also been pushed into the outfield of late as Paul DeJong and Nolan Gorman have regularly taken the middle infield spots. One of the club’s top prospects, shortstop Masyn Winn, is in Triple-A this year and should be due for a major league audition at some point. Other depth options on the 40-man include Juan Yepez, Moises Gomez and Richie Palacios. The club also has Iván Herrera, a valuable catching prospect, who is currently blocked by Willson Contreras.
That’s quite the crowded picture and the Cards could perhaps decide which players they like best while moving a few others while still having a solid group overall. However, those kinds of decisions aren’t always easy to make, as the club has seen in recent years. Mozeliak admitted that the club made mistakes in letting go of players like Randy Arozarena and Adolis García while sticking with guys like O’Neill and Harrison Bader.
It’s easy to make those kinds of calls with the benefit of hindsight, but the Cards may have to make some tough decisions again, especially in order to improve the pitching staff. With Montgomery, Flaherty, Hicks and Stratton on their way to free agency and Adam Wainwright set to retire, there are plenty of holes to fill on the pitching side of things. Some of the remaining options are also questionable, with Mozeliak admitting the club didn’t get what they expected from pitchers like Dakota Hudson and Matthew Liberatore this year.
As for the coaching, Mozeliak doesn’t lay any blame at the foot of second-year manager Oli Marmol. “I don’t think the coaches have any fault in this,” Mozeliak said. “They are handed the players. Unfortunately, it didn’t work. But I think Oli and his group do a really good job. They work really hard. And, you know, they continue to do that. But their level of frustration is probably as real as the fan base.” Marmol’s first season at the helm resulted in a 93-69 record and a division title. The results haven’t been there this season but it seems like he’s likely to get another shot with a different roster next year.
Exactly how the Cards navigate the deadline will undoubtedly be influenced by what kind of conversations they have with other clubs in the weeks to come, but it seems like they have settled on a broad plan of making whatever decisions will help the club next year. That likely means impending free agents will be available and perhaps other players as well. This year’s trade deadline is August 1, now less than three weeks away.
White Sox Acquire Mike Mayers From Royals
The White Sox have acquired right-hander Mike Mayers from the Royals, per Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times, with cash considerations heading in the other direction.
Mayers, 31, signed a minor league deal with the Royals in the winter and was deployed as a starter in Triple-A. He took the ball eight times for the Storm Chasers through the middle of May and posted a 6.88 ERA in 34 innings. He was selected to the Royals’ roster at that time and made six appearances, including two starts, for the big league club. He registered a 6.15 ERA through 26 1/3 innings before getting designated for assignment in the middle of June. He cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment and has been back with Omaha in a relief role in recent weeks.
The Sox are 38-54 and seem destined to do some selling prior to the August 1 trade deadline. They’re only eight games back in the weak American League Central but they would have to leapfrog three different clubs to get to the top and are even further back in the Wild Card race. It’s been speculated by many observers that impending free agents will be shopped and Lucas Giolito was recently ranked the #1 trade candidate by MLBTR for that very reason. Other pitchers like Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly, Keynan Middleton, Mike Clevinger and Reynaldo López make some sense as trade candidates to varying degrees, with the club reportedly willing to deal just about any pitcher except for Dylan Cease.
If that indeed comes to fruition and the Sox ship out a few arms from their big league staff, they may need to turn to a few of their depth pitchers in the final months of the season. Mayers has mostly served as a reliever in his career but has also made a handful of starts, including this year, allowing him to potentially fill either role in the months to come. He has a career ERA of 5.21 in 262 2/3 innings dating back to 2016. If he gets selected back to the roster at any point, he is out of options but could be retained for 2024 via arbitration if the club so chooses.
Mariners Claim Adam Oller
2:45pm: The Mariners have now officially announced the claim and that Oller will report to Triple-A Tacoma.
1:15pm: The Mariners have claimed right-hander Adam Oller off waivers from the Athletics, reports Jessica Kleinschmidt. The A’s hadn’t formally announced it, but Oller had recently been placed on outright waivers. The Mariners will assign Oller to Triple-A Tacoma for the time being, a source tells MLBTR. The Mariners haven’t announced the move yet, but they had multiple openings on the 40-man roster, so a corresponding move won’t be necessary.
Oller, 28, was acquired from the Mets alongside fellow right-hander J.T. Ginn in the trade that sent Chris Bassitt from Oakland to New York. He’s appeared in each of the past two seasons with Oakland — his first big league experience — but struggled to a 7.09 ERA with a 12.9% strikeout rate against an 11.9% walk rate in 94 innings. At the time of the trade, Oller was ranked 20th among Mets farmhands, per Baseball America, whose report tabbed him as a largely MLB-ready back-of-the-rotation starter or bulk reliever. Oller hasn’t thrown his slider as hard as advertised, however, and his swinging-strike rate and overall strikeout rate have both suffered as a result.
Oller posted a 3.45 ERA in 120 innings between the Mets’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates in 2021, winning the organization’s minor league pitcher of the year award in the process. Though he struggled in the Majors last year, he still put up a 3.69 ERA at the Triple-A level. In 2023, however, he’s been hit hard both in the big leagues and the minors; he’s sitting on a 7.11 ERA in 50 2/3 frames, albeit with a solid 25.2% strikeout rate against a 10.3% walk rate.
For the Mariners, Oller will serve as depth either in an injury-plagued rotation or in a swingman role. Seattle lost 2021 AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to flexor and Tommy John surgery early in the season, and the M’s currently have Marco Gonzales (forearm strain) and Bryce Miller (blisters) on the injured list at the moment. They’re currently using rookie Bryan Woo in the rotation and also turned to journeyman southpaw Tommy Milone for a start not long before the break. Oller, who’s in the second of three minor league option years, can provide some up-and-down depth moving forward.
The Mariners have done well with low-profile pitching acquisitions in recent years, most notably turning minor league signee Paul Sewald into a high-end reliever. They’ve also coaxed strong performances out of unheralded trade acquisition Justin Topa and waiver pickups like Gabe Speier and Tayler Saucedo so far in 2023. They’ll aim to add Oller to that growing list of pitching successes.
Oller becomes the second pitcher acquired during the Athletics’ fire sale to depart the organization in under two years. The A’s also lost left-hander Zach Logue — acquired in the Matt Chapman trade — to the Tigers on waivers over the winter. Of the seven young pitchers they’ve tried in the rotation since acquiring them as part of the latest teardown, only southpaw JP Sears (4.32 ERA) has an ERA under 6.00. Not every arm they’ve acquired has pitched in the Majors yet, of course, but the early results of the Athletics’ latest wave of trades have not boded well, to say the least.
Dodgers Acquire Tyson Miller From Brewers
The Dodgers announced that they have acquired right-hander Tyson Miller from the Brewers in exchange for cash considerations. The righty had been designated for assignment by Milwaukee on the weekend. To open a spot on their 40-man roster, the Dodgers transferred righty Daniel Hudson to the 60-day injured list.
Miller, 28 later this month, has been with the Brewers since being claimed off waivers from the Rangers in November. He has spent this year as an up-and-down depth arm, getting frequently optioned to Triple-A and recalled as needed. He has thrown 9 1/3 innings in the majors with a 5.79 ERA in that small sample. In 25 2/3 Triple-A innings, he has a 3.86 ERA, striking out 24.5% of hitters while walking 9.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.7% of balls in play.
He’s also seen some brief time in the majors with the Cubs and Rangers in previous seasons, currently sporting a 7.92 ERA over 25 career innings. His 4.75 ERA in 225 1/3 Triple-A innings might not excite much either, but he’s struck out 25.1% of hitters at that level and the Dodgers will surely try to coax more of that out of him going forward. He is in his final option year here in 2023, allowing the club to potentially keep him in the minors for the next few months but he’ll be out of options next year. But he has less than a year of service time and won’t be able to get to that one-year mark, meaning he could stick with the Dodgers for another six seasons if he can take a step forward.
The Dodgers essentially had a roster spot to burn as Hudson suffered an MCL sprain last week that’s going to keep him out of action for significant time. This transfer means he’ll be officially ineligible to return until 60 days from that initial IL placement, which would be early September. They’ve used Hudson’s roster spot and a bit of cash to add Miller to the system for a bit more depth on a club that’s dealt with a number of injuries this year, with 12 different pitchers currently on the IL.
Brown: Astros Prioritizing Rotation Help
Astros general manager Dana Brown hasn’t been shy about his desire to add a left-handed bat to his lineup, publicly calling that his front office’s focus as recently as two weeks ago. However, asked this morning during his weekly appearance on 790 AM’s Sean Salisbury Show where he’d make an upgrade if he could only improve at one spot on his roster, the first-year GM changed course and suggested it’d be in the rotation (link contains full audio of the 11-minute interview).
“With the pitchers that we’ve had going down, it could put us in a situation where we come up short or we don’t get to that next round of the playoffs,” said Brown. “A good arm would be really, really helpful. … The problem is, there are not many good arms out there.”
[Related: Top 50 Deadline Trade Candidates]
Houston has seen more than its share of rotation injuries in 2023. Lance McCullers Jr. won’t pitch this year after undergoing flexor tendon surgery, and the ‘Stros have also lost fellow righty Luis Garcia to Tommy John surgery. Jose Urquidy has been out since late April due to a shoulder injury. And, since Brown’s last comments about prioritizing a bat, he’s revealed that ace Framber Valdez has been pitching through an ankle sprain. Meanwhile, right-hander Cristian Javier has been slumping (22 runs in his past 21 1/3 innings) and had his spot in the rotation skipped over leading into the break. Brown indicated this morning that Javier simply “needed a breather” and gave no indication that the right-hander is dealing with any sort of injury.
As it stands, the Astros are leaning on Valdez (ostensibly at less than 100%), Brandon Bielak and rookies Hunter Brown and J.P. France. Presumably, Javier will slot back into the rotation early in the second half. Houston has taken a look at right-handers Ronel Blanco and Shawn Dubin in the rotation, too. By and large, it’s a group of inexperienced starters. Outside of Brown, none of the rookies were considered particularly high-end prospects. Each of Brown, Bielak, France and Dubin is already approaching his 2022 innings total; Blanco has already exceeded last year’s workload. Urquidy has not yet begun a minor league rehab assignment.
Even with those injuries and workload concerns, Houston starters rank fourth in the Majors with a 3.74 ERA. Valdez’s outstanding year plays a large role in that collective figure, but Houston’s in-house rotation reinforcements have undeniably done a nice job in keeping the team afloat. With each rapidly approaching last year’s innings tally and with Valdez at least somewhat banged up, it’s natural to hear Brown express a desire to bolster the group.
In prior comments, Brown made clear that he’s not interested in parting with the top prospects in his system in exchange for rental players. Pitchers controlled beyond the current season could potentially fall into a different category, and if there are teams willing to put controllable arms up for sale, the Astros could be more apt to part with higher-end talent. Lucas Giolito, Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty and Michael Lorenzen are among the rental arms expected to be available, while more controllable trade candidates include Shane Bieber and Paul Blackburn. Righties Kyle Hendricks and Lance Lynn both have team options for the 2024 season, though Lynn could be trending toward a buyout. Marcus Stroman and Eduardo Rodriguez have opt-out opportunities this winter, so they’ll be treated as rentals, at best, by interested parties.