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Orioles Seeking Multiple Veteran Starting Pitchers

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The Orioles are expected to be busy this winter, as they look to add to a young roster that is showing signs of life after a lengthy rebuild. Left-handed hitting and pitching is top of the list for Baltimore, and Roch Kubatko of MASN notes that the Orioles want “multiple veteran starting pitchers”.

It’s already been reported that the Orioles aren’t expected to do business with the top tier of free agents, ruling them out of the likes of Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom. Instead, they could be aggressive in going after a couple of second and third tier starters to supplement the current crop of pitchers.

As things stand, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells and Austin Voth are four starting options on the roster. Kremer worked to a 3.23 ERA through 21 starts, and while a low BABIP helped him out, there’s enough to suggest he’ll get a chance in the rotation again. Voth is arbitration eligible for the first time and projected to make a modest $2MM salary in 2023. He had a 3.04 ERA in 83 innings after coming over from Washington, and also figures to be part of the rotation.

The other clear option on the roster currently is Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore’s top pitching prospect. He’s yet to make an appearance in the big leagues, but Kubatko is predicting him to make their opening day rotation. The just-turned 23-year-old threw 69 2/3 innings at Triple-A this year, punching out batters 35.8% of the time against a 7.7% walk rate to post a 2.20 ERA.

Should Kremer, Voth and Rodriguez take three spots in the opening day rotation, that’d leave Wells and Bradish as depth options (and both have minor league options) and two spots open for external additions. John Means is the other internal name to consider, but he had Tommy John surgery in April and it’s not clear when he could feature in 2023. So who could the Orioles be in play for?

With a right-handed-heavy provisional rotation, it’d make sense for them to pursue a lefty option. Carlos Rodon is the top option available there, but he falls into the top tier that it seems the Orioles are reluctant to shop in, so instead they could look to add Jose Quintana, a veteran who enjoyed a terrific bounce back season with the Pirates and Cardinals, and would add valuable leadership to a young Baltimore clubhouse. Sean Manaea struggled with the Padres in 2022 but he’d been a reliable arm in Oakland prior to that.

Elsewhere, Chris Bassitt and Jameson Taillon represent solid right-handed options. Both were reliable mid-rotation arms for the Mets and Yankees respectively, and would solidify the rotation. Bassitt turned down a qualifying offer, so the Orioles would have to sacrifice their third-highest pick in the 2023 draft should they go down that route.

White Sox Showing Strong Interest In Mike Clevinger

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The White Sox are showing strong interest in free agent starter Mike Clevinger, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

Clevinger, who turns 32 in less than a month, is two years removed from Tommy John surgery.  He returned from the procedure this year to post a 4.33 ERA, 18.8 K%, 7.2 BB%, and 35.2% groundball rate in 114 1/3 regular season innings for the Padres.  He also started a pair of playoff games, allowing seven earned runs in 2 2/3 innings.

The White Sox currently have a solid starting four lined up for their 2023 rotation in Dylan Cease, Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, and Michael Kopech, though Kopech is recovering from a pair of injuries.  Clevinger could potentially fill the shoes of Johnny Cueto, himself a free agent.  Cueto proved invaluable after signing a minor league deal with the Sox, posting a 3.35 ERA in 158 1/3 frames.

Though Clevinger’s post-Tommy John work was uninspiring, some teams may hope further distance from the surgery and/or tweaks to his repertoire can recover some of his previous form.  From 2017-20, mostly pitching for Cleveland, Clevinger put up a 2.96 ERA over 489 1/3 innings, including an excellent 19 K-BB%.  He was quite possibly one of the 20 best pitchers in baseball during that time.

The Padres acquired Clevinger from the Indians in a nine-player trade at the 2020 trade deadline.  It’s worth noting that the White Sox were also in the mix for the pitcher they knew so well from the AL Central, though Rosenthal heard from one team official who felt they were used as a “stalking horse.”  Clevinger made four starts as a new Padre, but was then scratched for what was at the time called biceps tightness and later revised to an elbow sprain.  The Padres brought him back for Game 1 of the NLDS that year, but he was pulled from the start and was on the operating table the following month.

At the time of the surgery announcement, the Padres also bought out Clevinger’s final two arbitration years for a total of $11.5MM, effectively paying him that amount for what he could contribute in ’22.  Though Clevinger remarked in March, “I feel healthier than I have in my entire career,” he sprained his knee shortly thereafter, leading to a May 4th season debut.  He hit the IL again after three starts due to a triceps strain.

Over his first ten games, Clevinger was able to miss bats at an above average 24.7% clip.  Over his last 11 starts, however, Clevinger punched out only 13.5%.  Clevinger lost a bit off his fastball as the season wore on, occasionally working at 95+ in some of his earlier starts versus a few sub-93 games in the dog days of summer.  Denied communication with the Padres during the lockout as well as a typical spring training, perhaps changing those variables will lead to better results for Clevinger in 2023.

With a cast of unproven hurlers vying for the fifth starting spot and Kopech recovering from knee surgery, White Sox pitching coach Ethan Katz recently commented, “Obviously, we need another starter,” as reported by James Fegan of The Athletic.  But as Fegan noted from the GM Meetings earlier this month, “If there’s one thing the White Sox are not touting about themselves this offseason, it’s their payroll flexibility.”  For an overall view of the challenges faced by GM Rick Hahn, check out my Offseason Outlook here.

MLBTR ranked Clevinger 49th on our top 50 free agents list, predicting a one-year, $10MM deal.  While we do find a two-year pact plausible for Clevinger, it’s possible he’d prefer to sign a one-year contract to rebuild value in ’23 – though he would be subject to a qualifying offer if he succeeds.  A handful of starting pitchers have come off the board at this early point in the offseason, Martin Perez, Tyler Anderson, and Nick Martinez chief among them.

Yomiuri Giants Showing Interest In Tyler Beede

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The Yomiuri Giants of the Nippon Professional Baseball league are showing interest in adding right-handed pitcher Tyler Beede for the upcoming season, according to Hochi News (h/t Sung Min Kim). Beede was released by the Pirates last month after spending the 2022 campaign with them and San Francisco.

Beede, 29, was drafted 14th overall by the Giants back in 2014, but never managed to live up to the first round pedigree over four years in the big leagues. Across 187 innings between the Giants and Pirates, Beede pitched to a 5.34 ERA, averaging a 19.1% strikeout rate and a 9.7% walk rate. Most of those innings were logged in the 2019 season, when Beede pitched 117 innings of 5.08 ERA ball largely out of the Giants’ rotation.

Tommy John surgery ruled him out of the shortened 2020 season, and a significant chunk of the 2021 campaign as well. The Giants cut ties with him after a handful of relief appearances this year, and he was picked up by the rebuilding Pirates. The change of scenery didn’t bring about a change of results though, as Beede worked to a 5.23 ERA in 51 2/3 innings. He also saw his strikeout rate drop to 14.8% while putting up a 9.7% walk rate.

Pittsburgh designated Beede for assignment towards the end of the season and he became a free agent in October.

The report also adds that Yomiuri are looking to sign former Royals and Blue Jays pitcher Foster Griffin as well as Beede. Griffin was also drafted in the first round in 2014 (28th by the Royals) has made just a handful of appearances across two years in the big leagues, tossing eight innings of 6.75 ERA ball for the Royals and Blue Jays. The left-hander was much better at Triple-A, where he worked to a 2.10 ERA across 51 1/3 innings of relief work.

Rays Interested In Sean Murphy

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The Rays are one of a number of teams showing trade interest in Oakland catcher Sean Murphy, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network. The line of suitors for Murphy is expected to be long, and already includes the Red Sox and White Sox, while a host of other teams including the Cardinals, Astros and Yankees could feasibly be interested. It’s also worth noting that the Guardians discussed a Murphy deal in the summer, while Dennis Lin of The Athletic adds that the Padres also pursued Murphy during the season, and both of those teams could conceivably circle back to restart those trade discussions.

Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez headline a thin free agent catching class, so Murphy represents an attractive alternative on the trade market for catcher-hungry teams this winter. The 28-year-old is under club control for three more seasons, and Matt Swartz of MLBTR pegged him for a $3.5MM salary in arbitration. While the prospect haul to acquire him will be significant, that salary is an incredibly affordable rate for a player who was worth 5.1 fWAR last season, and has firmly established himself as one of the best catchers in the game.

The Rays tendered contracts to Christian Bethancourt ($1.6MM projection) and Francisco Mejia ($2.2MM) so they do have catching options on the roster, but neither are clear starters. Bethancourt came over to the Rays from Oakland last summer and posted a 1.9 fWAR season with a 101 wRC+ in his first big league campaign since 2017. Mejia saw his BB and K rate go in the wrong directions on the way to a .242/.264/.381 line in 93 games.

Murphy would be a clear upgrade on either. He hit 18 home runs on a .250/.332/.426 line in 2022, good for a 122 wRC+ or 22% above league average. He also cut back on his strikeouts, shaving off five percent from his career mark which tended to hover around 25%. Behind the plate Murphy ranked sixth in baseball for Statcast’s Catcher Framing Runs, and threw out roughly a third of runners attempting stolen bases on him. He also won a Gold Glove in 2021.

Tampa Bay’s farm system ranked 12th in the game by Baseball America during the middle of the 2022 season, and featured five of the top-100 prospects in the game – Shane Baz, Taj Bradley, Curtis Mead, Jonathan Aranda and Carson Williams, so there’s certainly the young talent there to get a deal done.

It’s not clear how the Rays’ catching depth chart would shape up were a Murphy trade to materialize. They could look to sell high on Bethancourt on the back of his strong 2022 campaign and operate a Murphy-Mejia tandem behind the plate. Given Murphy has caught 119 and 116 games the past two years, it seems unlikely they’d carry three catchers. Of course, after trading Ji-Man Choi to Pittsburgh, they could opt to utilize Mejia as a bench bat/first-base option, although they’d certainly be looking to see a bounce back from him offensively in that scenario.

Latest On Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts

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Shortstop Carlos Correa is one of the top free agent available and he is unsurprisingly drawing plenty of interest. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that eight teams are interested in his services, but the Twins are expected to “go hard” in their attempts to retain him.

Heyman doesn’t mention any teams by name other than the Twins, who are already known to be making a concerted effort to keep Correa in Minnesota. It was reported earlier this week that they have made multiple offers to him, with varying lengths between six and ten years, presumably with higher salaries on the shorter deals and lower salaries on the longer deals. In addition to the Twins, Correa has already been publicly linked in some way to the Giants, Dodgers and Cubs. Since Heyman says eight teams are involved, it appears there are four “mystery teams” at the table.

As to who those mystery teams are, we can only guess, though there would be some logical fits. Mariners’ president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has said the club is planning to pursue shortstops to play second base in deference to J.P. Crawford. The Phillies are known to be looking for a shortstop this winter. The Braves will need to replace Dansby Swanson if they can’t re-sign him but they might not have the financial ability to go after Correa. The Orioles have been speculated as a fit given that general manager Mike Elias was working for the Astros when Correa was drafted and developed, though they don’t have a track record that would suggest they’d give out the type of contract it would require to land him.

One surprising team that could be in the mix is the Padres. Heyman doesn’t directly connect the club to Correa but he does say they are considering the free agent shortstops. The Padres have been extremely aggressive in recent years and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller shouldn’t really be counted out on anyone, but it’s still unexpected to see the club connected to this market. The Friars got by without Fernando Tatis Jr. in 2022, who missed the first half of the season due to a wrist injury and the second half due to a suspension for a positive test for performance-enhancing drugs.

In his absence, Ha-Seong Kim stepped up and had an excellent season. He hit .251/.325/.383 for a wRC+ of 105 while stealing 12 bases and providing excellent defense. All of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average gave him positive grades, allowing him to produce 3.7 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. With Tatis set to return in 2023 once he serves the final 20 games of his suspension, it would seem the position is already crowded enough as it is. However, Heyman’s report indicates the club is open to the idea of moving Tatis to the outfield, something he’s dabbled with in the past, while bumping Kim into a utility role.

It had been previously reported that the club was considering an alignment of Kim at short, Tatis at second and Jake Cronenworth at first. It seems that this new plan would be somewhat similar but with Tatis going to the outfield, perhaps replacing Jurickson Profar, who is now a free agent, in left. Regardless of how it would eventually play out, Heyman lists Xander Bogaerts as their preferred option for this plan. Marino Pepén also connects the Padres to Bogaerts, though he says they are behind the Phillies and the Red Sox in the bidding.

Payroll might be a factor for the Friars, as Roster Resource currently pegs their payroll at $210MM and their competitive balance tax number at $230MM, just under the first CBT threshold of $233MM. The club has nudged over the CBT line in the past two years, but signing a marquee shortstop would surely mean blowing past the first threshold and flirting with the second, which is $253MM. As a third-time payor, the Padres are already facing a 50% tax on all spending over the first the first threshold plus a 12% surcharge on spending over the second. That means every dollar they go over $253MM would be taxed at a 62% rate. The club has continually surprised onlookers with their aggression in recent seasons, meaning it shouldn’t be completely ruled out. But it would be quite a noteworthy escalation, especially with the club connected to other big free agents like José Abreu and Kodai Senga.

As for the Giants, who have been connected to the free agent shortstops for some time, they will have to answer the Brandon Crawford question if they succeed in signing a new shortstop. He’s been with the club since being drafted back in 2008 and has been a mainstay at shortstop for them since 2011. He turns 36 in January, has one year remaining on his extension and is coming off a down year in 2022. He made multiple trips to the injured list and posted a batting line of .231/.308/.344, wRC+ of 87. DRS and UZR were down on his work in the field, but he did earn 7 OAA.

As to how the club would handle a new shortstop with Crawford on the roster, it seems that it would depend who the shortstop is. According to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, Crawford would move to third base if they signed Correa, but Trea Turner or Dansby Swanson would be installed at second base. That’s likely a reflection of the fact that Turner and Swanson have lesser throwing arms than the other two. According to the Statcast arm strength leaderboard among shortstops, Swanson comes 48th out of 50 while Turner is 26th. Crawford is a bit higher at 19 while Correa is at #6. Correa’s excellent arm strength arguably makes him a fit for third base, but his overall defense is superior to Crawford’s at this stage of their careers. Regardless of how sensible the arguments may be, it’s at least a bit surprising that the Giants are apparently willing to supplant Crawford at shortstop under the right conditions.

Big Hype Prospects: Miller, Nunez, Thomas, Ramos, Duran

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Building on last week’s column, we’ll continue evaluating possible Rule 5 draft targets. By nature, these are not truly “big hype prospects.” After all, Rule 5 picks rarely go on to have notable Major League careers. We’ll have a few leftovers to discuss next week.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Erik Miller, 24, RP, PHI (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 48.1 IP, 11.5 K/9, 5.8 BB/9, 3.54 ERA

At times, Miller looked like he might one day be a Top 100 prospect. At his best, he shows a four-pitch repertoire of average or better offerings from the left side. Unfortunately, errant command causes his stuff to play down. In a brief 12-inning trial at Triple-A, he allowed 14 walks, one hit batter, and four home runs. Between suspect strike-throwing ability and his late-season flop, the Phillies must have determined he couldn’t help them contend in the near future. Their 40-man roster is already crowded. Other clubs without the burden of a 2023 playoff push might be more willing to hand Miller a role, especially since he’s a southpaw. His career has been interrupted by several injuries. A healthy stretch could help him to resolve his command woes.

Malcom Nunez, 21, 1B, PIT (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 493 PA, 23 HR, 5 SB, .262/.367/.466

Designated hitters tend to escape Rule 5 scrutiny. Perhaps we’ll see new trends with the universal DH in place. Nunez has almost no defensive value even though he’s mostly played first and third base. The Pirates acquired the slugger as part of the Jose Quintana deal. Nunez mashed at Double-A last season and had a successful five-game stint in Triple-A. He showed improved strike zone judgment and is prone to hard, low-angle, pulled contact which cuts into his home run potential. He might be a more substantive Rule 5 target this time next year.

Tahnaj Thomas, 23, RP, PIT (AA)
50.2 IP, 9.24 K/9, 3.55 BB/9, 3.02 ERA

Thomas is a former top prospect whose development has plateaued in recent years. He looks like a big league pitcher and even used to brush triple-digit velocity on the regular. Lately, his fastball has sat in the mid-90s. It’s his best offering. A lack of secondary stuff continues to constrain his progression. Given his modest success at Double-A despite middling stuff, I expect some club will take a leap to see if they can teach him a breaking ball during Spring Training. There’s also a chance the right pitching lab work could help him to recover his heater.

Jose Ramos, 21, OF, LAD (A+)
407 PA, 19 HR, 2 SB, .240/.322/.467

It’s possible 26-man rosters could help a few rebuilding clubs stomach rostering a player like Ramos. He’s a tooled-up slugger who’s prone to flailing at bendy stuff in the dirt. A year ago, he was on a Top 100 prospect trajectory. If he continues to produce in the upper minors, he could still rebound to that level. A jump straight to the Majors is almost certainly doomed to fail in terms of statistical results. Any acquiring team has to be comfortable getting close to no production from the corner outfielder in 2023. Drafting Ramos is a long-term gambit.

It’s worth noting that the Dodgers dev staff is considered one of the best in the league. If they’ve failed to help Ramos lay off breaking balls, there aren’t many clubs that can confidently expect to do better.

Carlos Duran, 21, SP, LAD (A+)
48.2 IP, 12.58 K/9, 4.44 BB/9, 4.25 ERA

This is a classic Rule 5 draft profile – a good young starter coming off a solid, age-appropriate performance. His stuff could instantly pop in the bullpen. The Dodgers never got around to evaluating him as a reliever – at least not during game action. Duran features a spicy upper-90s fastball with bowling ball sink. His slider is also considered a double-plus offering. He throws a changeup and curve, both of which are developing offerings that would likely be dropped if he’s picked up as a Rule 5 reliever. Given his imposing presence on the mound, he evokes another Duran (Jhoan Duran) though he lacks that top-end ceiling. Still, Duran is one of the better bets for teams hoping for the instant gratification of finding a high-leverage reliever.

Five More

Korry Howell, SDP (24): A toolsy utility man who shows best in the outfield, Howell combines plate discipline and speed with questions about his bat-to-ball ability. Though he only has mixed success in Double-A, his speed and defensive versatility might prove attractive to another club.

Corey Julks, HOU (26): Julks is one of the most statistically accomplished players available in the draft. Last season, he hit .270/.351/.503 in Triple-A with 31 home runs and 22 steals. He’s also one of the oldest plausible picks without Major League experience. While he could patch center field in a pinch, he’s a better fit defensively in the outfield corners. The only glaring flaw in his game is a lack of standout tools. Even so, this blend of contact, discipline, pop, speed, and acceptable defense is sufficient to merit an immediate big league look.

Ryan Ward, LAD (24): Over the last two seasons, Ward has popped a combined 55 home runs in 1,001 plate appearances split between High- and Double-A. A left-handed corner outfielder, he’s trending as a righty-mashing platoon bat. While he’d ideally get some time in Triple-A, a non-contending club might tolerate having him on the regular roster as a part-timer.

Dominic Canzone, ARI (24): Like Ward, Canzone passes a smell test as a possible platoon outfielder. He eviscerated Double-A pitching before posting a merely solid .284/.349/.489 line in 364 plate appearances. Remember, the Reno Aces play in a hitters’ haven. While he doesn’t have an obvious path to the Majors with the outfield-rich Diamondbacks, plenty of clubs should be interested in giving him a spring tryout.

Edgar Barclay, NYY (24): Barclay dominated High-A as a strike-throwing bulk reliever. The southpaw has a plus changeup but lacks an impact fastball or breaking ball. Since he’s short and left-handed, he could be used as a situational reliever and mop-up man. His lack of upper-minors experience could be a deterrent.

Dodgers, Twins Interested In Carlos Rodón

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The Dodgers and Twins are each facing some uncertainty in their rotations and are giving some consideration to lefty Carlos Rodón. Jon Heyman of The New York Post mentions the Dodgers as suitors while Dan Hayes and Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic report the interest of the Twins.

The interest in Rodón isn’t surprising, given his excellent two-year run of success. After injuries severely limited him in 2019 and 2020, Rodón posted a 2.37 ERA with the White Sox in 2021, along with a 34.6% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate. Rodón didn’t completely erase the injury concerns, as he went on the IL due to shoulder fatigue and only logged 132 2/3 innings on the year.

Those concerns were enough that the Sox didn’t issue him a qualifying offer. The Giants gave him a two-year, $44MM deal but one that allowed him to opt out after the first year if he hit 110 innings. He soared past that mark, finishing at 178 innings with a 2.88 ERA, 33.4% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate.

He received and rejected a qualifying offer from the Giants but still was listed as the top pitcher on MLBTR’s list of the top free agents this offseason. Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander will likely earn stronger annual salaries but will be limited to shorter pacts because of their ages. Rodón won’t turn 30 until next month and was predicted for a five-year deal worth $140MM, an average annual value of $28MM.

For the Dodgers, their uncertainty comes from a couple of factors. One is that Walker Buehler required Tommy John surgery in August and will likely miss all of the 2023 campaign. Secondly, they could potentially lose a couple of rotation members in free agency. Tyler Anderson already rejected their qualifying offer and signed with the Angels, while Andrew Heaney is still unsigned.

Despite that, the rotation is still in good shape, with Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May likely taking the first four spots. However, May just returned from his own Tommy John recovery in August and only made six starts down the stretch. Urias and Kershaw are both slated to reach free agency a year from now, with the latter seemingly giving some consideration to retirement every winter. Given all those question marks, an investment in the rotation makes plenty of sense.

A lengthy commitment to a starting pitcher would be a change in M.O. for the club, however. It appears that the last time they gave a starter more than three years was the four-year deal given to Brandon McCarthy prior to the 2015 season. They’ve generally preferred to find hidden gems on short-term deals, like the one-year pacts they gave to Anderson and Heaney going into 2022.

However, they’ve cleared a lot of payroll space this winter, meaning a big strike can’t be ruled out. Roster Resource currently pegs their 2023 payroll at $152MM, with a CBT number of $168MM. They could add about $60MM to next year’s spending and still be under the first luxury tax threshold, which will be $233MM in 2023. They will surely be considering doing some spending on a shortstop or perhaps Aaron Judge. But given that they had an Opening Day payroll of $281MM in 2021, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they have enough dry powder to go after just about anyone they want.

The Twins can hardly match the Dodgers when it comes baseball’s financial hierarchy. However, they are in a good position to be more aggressive than some might expect. Their future commitments are pretty close to zero, with Byron Buxton the only player on the books for 2024 and beyond. For 2023, Roster Resource only counts $98MM in commitments at the moment, well shy of last year’s $134MM Opening Day figure, per Cot’s. There’s certainly room for a big contract of some kind, though the club’s first order of business might be seeing how Carlos Correa responds to their creative contract offers.

If a deal can’t be worked out with Correa, pivoting to Rodón makes sense given their rotation picture. They have lots of options on hand but they all come with uncertainty. Sonny Gray posted a 3.08 ERA in 2022 but injuries limited him to 24 starts and he’s a free agent next year. Tyler Mahle dealt with shoulder problems and only made four starts in a Twins uniform after being acquired from the Reds at the deadline. Like Gray, he’s a free agent after 2023. Kenta Maeda should be back in some form but he missed all of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober had strong results in 2022 but both are still young, with neither having yet reached 200 career innings. Chris Paddack had Tommy John in May and could return in 2023, though likely not until the second half of the season. The club also had a batch of interesting pitching prospects, though they are naturally unproven as all prospects are, particularly pitchers.

If the Dodgers or Twins are serious in their pursuit of Rodón, they will have company. They join the Giants, Yankees and Rangers as teams with reported interested in his services.

Cubs Interested In Michael Conforto, Cody Bellinger

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Outfielders Michael Conforto and Cody Bellinger are both risky bets with huge payoff potential and it seems the Cubs are interested in putting some money down there. Jon Heyman of The New York Post connects the Cubs to both of them and also adds the Astros to the lengthy list of Bellinger suitors.

Conforto, 30 in March, is a real wild card since he had an excellent run of play from 2017 to 2020 but has had a frustrating time since then. He hit 97 home runs during that strong period, producing an overall batting line of .265/.369/.496. That production was 33% better than the league average hitter, as evidenced by his 133 wRC+.

He slumped in 2021 by hitting just 14 homers and slashing .232/.344/.384. His 106 wRC+ shows that he was still a bit above average, but it was a noticeable drop from his previous output. He received and rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets, still believing he could find a bigger payday despite the down season. Unfortunately, he injured his shoulder during the lockout, requiring surgery that wiped out his 2022 entirely.

After one down year and a lost campaign, it’s difficult to know what to expect from Conforto going forward. That uncertainty will put a damper on his market but he’ll surely find teams interested in taking a shot, hoping he can return to the kind of hitter he was a few years ago. He’s already been connected to the Yankees and Mets this offseason and has connected to the Blue Jays prior to that.

Bellinger, 27, is a somewhat similar case, as he also had a strong four-year run from 2017 to 2020, including an MVP season in 2019. Over that stretch, Bellinger hit 123 home runs and slashed .273/.364/.547 for a wRC+ of 137. However, he injured his shoulder during the 2020 postseason on an ill-advised celebration and hasn’t been himself since. He hit a dismal .165/.240/.302 in 2021 and rebounded slightly to .210/.265/.389 in 2022, but that latter line was still well below average.

Bellinger comes with a higher floor than Conforto as his speed and defense can make him valuable even if his bat doesn’t rebound. FanGraphs calculated him to be worth 1.7 wins above replacement this year, even with the tepid offensive production. Conforto, however, doesn’t rate out as well in those departments and really needs to produce at the plate in order to be useful.

For the Cubs, it’s not shocking to see that they are considering adding an outfielder with their lack of clarity on the grass. Seiya Suzuki is the only long-term piece in place right now, as he has four years remaining on his contract and should have right field locked down. In left field, Ian Happ should be the everyday option but he is just one year away from reaching free agency. In center field, the Cubs used a handful of different options in 2022 with no one securing the job. They also don’t have an obvious designated hitter at the moment, making it easy to slot another potent bat into their lineup.

After rebuilding in recent years, the Cubs have been rumored to be considering more aggressive spending in order to help push back to contention. They delivered on that last year to a degree, giving multi-year deals to Suzuki and Marcus Stroman, in addition to a batch of one-year contracts. Neither Bellinger nor Conforto will require top-of-the-market deals, given their recent struggles. Bellinger is reportedly looking for a one-year deal in order to hopefully return to free agency with a stronger platform season. Conforto is apparently looking for a deal somewhat similar to what Carlos Rodón got from the Giants, a two-year guarantee that allows him to opt out if he has a strong showing in year one.

The Cubs should have lots of payroll room to work with, as they are currently pegged at about $127MM, per Roster Resource. That’s well shy of 2022’s $143MM Opening Day figure and their franchise high of $203MM from 2019, with figures from Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They’ve been rumored to be in the market for the top free agent shortstops, but it’s possible that they end up losing out to clubs that are more firmly in win-now mode. Whether they succeed in that area or not, turning a 74-win team into a contender in one offseason is a challenge. Taking short-term fliers on bounceback candidates like Conforto and Bellinger makes plenty of sense, as they have the potential to both bolster the club’s chances in 2023 while also potentially becoming trade candidates at next year’s deadline if they fall back in the standings again.

As for the Astros, it was recently reported that they are targeting left-handed hitting outfielders. This is in part due to the fact that Michael Brantley is now a free agent, leaving them with Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker as the only left-handers locked into the lineup. Bellinger would help balance the lineup but, as mentioned, there’s uncertainty in what kind of production he’s likely to provide. The Astros have avoided lengthy commitments in recent years, as the last free agent they signed to a deal longer than two years was Josh Reddick back in 2016.

Bellinger’s desire for a one-year deal certainly fits their M.O., and his defensive prowess would afford the club opportunities. Alvarez got into 56 games in left field this year, a personal high for him. It’s possible he continues pushing that number but he’s still likely to spend at least some time as the designated hitter. Chas McCormick is a strong defender in center field but he hits from the right side, meaning he and Bellinger could potentially be deployed in a platoon. McCormick hit .340/.409/.563 against lefties last year has a career 125 wRC+ versus righties but just a 99 against southpaws. On days when Alvarez is the DH, McCormick and Bellinger taking the field next to Tucker could give the club a very strong defensive trio.

Houston’s payroll is actually not far off from last year’s, as Roster Resource currently has them around $164MM. That’s just $11MM shy of last year’s $175MM Opening Day figure, per Cot’s. Even a modest deal that Bellinger will likely require would get them closer to or over last year’s number, but it wouldn’t be surprising if they push their spending up on the heels of a World Series victory.

Heyman says that there are 11 teams in the Bellinger sweepstakes, which also includes known suitors in the Yankees, Giants, Rockies and Blue Jays.

The Opener: Adames, Senga, Yoshida

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While folks around the world do their Black Friday shopping, here’s three things we’ll be keeping an eye on in the baseball world in the coming days:

1. Willy Adames Likely Staying Put

Early in the offseason, there had been speculation that the Brewers might deal shortstop Willy Adames, who represented an intriguing, low-cost alternative to the top four shortstops on the free agent market. This outcome has become far less likely in recent days, however, as it was recently reported that Adames and Milwaukee have engaged in extension discussions. While no extension seems imminent, when combined with Jeff Passan of ESPN’s report that the Brewers are hoping to build around Adames, Corbin Burnes, and Brandon Woodruff this winter, the contract discussions certainly seem to indicate Adames will be playing for the Brewers on Opening Day 2023. If the Brewers have truly decided to hold onto Adames, that would further limit the shortstop market this offseason, with Elvis Andrus and Andrelton Simmons representing the second tier of options available to clubs who miss on Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson.

2. Kodai Senga Meeting With Teams

Right-hander Koudai Senga has drawn widespread interest across MLB as he prepares to make the jump from Japan this offseason. Recently, he has begun taking meetings with teams, including the Padres, Mets, and, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the Rangers. Those three teams are far from the only ones with known interest in Senga, however, as the Cubs, Giants, Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays are just a few of the teams who have been connected to Senga this offseason. Senga’s preference is reportedly to play in a big market with a chance to win right now, so it’s no wonder that the teams that have been most aggressively connected to him are the larger markets in the sport. Now that the offseason slowdown that comes with Thanksgiving is out of the way, it’s possible we will begin to see Senga meeting with more teams in the coming days.

3. When Will Masataka Yoshida Be Posted?

It has been reported that NPB slugger Masataka Yoshida will be posted for MLB teams to sign this offseason, with multiple teams, including the Yankees and Blue Jays, already showing interest. The window to post players typically ends on December 5th, meaning there’s less than two weeks left for Yoshida’s Buffaloes to post him, beginning his thirty day negotiation window with big league clubs. When posted, Yoshida will join a corner outfield market littered with both talented players and age- or injury-related concerns about many of those talented players, potentially making Yoshida, 29, one of the most attractive options on the market behind Aaron Judge. Still, as with any player making the jump from Japan to stateside ball, there will be questions about just how much of his elite production in Japan will transfer over into the majors. Whenever Yoshida ends up being posted, his market will be among the most interesting to follow this offseason.

Rays Interested In Brandon Nimmo

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In a market thin on center field help, Brandon Nimmo has naturally drawn a lot of interest on the free agent market.  Many of baseball’s bigger spenders have been linked to the former Mets standout, but according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the low-payroll Rays are also a rather surprising suitor for Nimmo’s services.

MLBTR projected Nimmo for a five-year, $110MM deal this winter, which would represent far and away the largest contract the Rays have even given to a free agent.  It would also represent the franchise’s second-largest expenditure on any contract, behind only Wander Franco’s 11-year, $182MM extension.  Since Nimmo rejected the Mets’ qualifying offer, Tampa Bay would also have to give up their third-highest pick in the 2023 draft as compensation for signing the outfielder — no small penalty for a club that relies on building from within.

In short, it would count as a real stunner if the Rays won the bidding for one of the winter’s most sought-after free agents.  However, it is worth noting that we’re only about a year removed from the Rays’ reported offer to Freddie Freeman, another big-ticket name on the open market.  Between the Freeman offer and the Franco extension, there have been some hints out of Tampa Bay that the Rays are prepared to stretch their budget (by their standards) in order to capture that elusive championship.  The Rays have reached the postseason in each of the last four years and made it as far as the World Series in 2020, but fell short to the Dodgers in six games.

Assuming Nimmo did sign for around $22MM in average annual value, such a deal would take Tampa Bay’s payroll into a new stratosphere, though the team has already broken some of their own financial benchmarks.  As per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Rays’ Opening Day payroll in 2022 was just shy of $83.9MM, a new club record.  Roster Resource projects Tampa for a 2023 payroll of roughly $67.7MM, and that number includes the projected salaries of a still-large class of arbitration-eligible players.

The Rays have already parted ways with some arb-eligibles (i.e. Ji-Man Choi, Ryan Yarbrough) to save some dollars, and any number of other creative trades could still be possible to further shed payroll.  Tampa could continue to shop more members of their arbitration class, or the team could look into moving players on guaranteed contracts.  Franco isn’t going anywhere, but any of Manuel Margot, Brooks Raley, Tyler Glasnow, or even Brandon Lowe could be plausible trade chips.

Moving an established player to bring in a more expensive player like Nimmo would be an uncharacteristic move for the Rays, yet it could make sense in this circumstance.  Nimmo would essentially be Margot’s replacement in the outfield, and Raley or Glasnow could be replaced by one of the many young arms from Tampa’s seemingly endless pitching pipeline.  The Rays already did well without Lowe for much of the 2022 season, as Lowe played in only 65 games due to ongoing back problems.  If Lowe was traded, the Rays could rely on some combination of Taylor Walls, Isaac Paredes, Jonathan Aranda, or Vidal Brujan at second base, as they did last season.  Plus, top prospect Curtis Mead is waiting in the wings for his Major League debut.

The Rays relied on their pitching and defense to win 86 games and claim a Wild Card berth last season, but Nimmo’s bat would greatly help a lackluster offense.  Nimmo hit .274/.367/.433 with 16 home runs over 673 plate appearances last season, which translated to a 134 wRC+ and 5.4 fWAR.  No Rays position player in 2022 had a higher fWAR than Yandy Diaz’s 3.8 number, and only Diaz (146) had a better wRC+.  The left-handed hitting Nimmo even helps from a lineup balance perspective, since Tampa’s lineup is mostly right-handed.

An argument can be made that if the Rays were going to splurge on a player, it should be for someone without Nimmo’s checkered injury history.  There is some irony in Tampa Bay pursuing an oft-injured center fielder just as Kevin Kiermaier is finally off the team’s books.  Kiermaier’s six-year, $53.5MM extension was also one of the larger deals in Rays history, and while Kiermaier was only rarely in Nimmo’s league as a hitter, Kiermaier was one of the league’s best fielders at any position when he was healthy enough to stay on the field.  The public metrics are a little more mixed on Nimmo’s work in center field, though Tampa could use him in any of the three outfield positions, since Jose Siri is on hand to play center.

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