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Pirates Sign Austin Hedges

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December 20: The Pirates have officially announced the signing.

December 17: The Pirates have agreed to a one-year deal with free agent catcher Austin Hedges, according to The New York Post’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).  Hedges, a client of the Boras Corporation, will receive $5MM.

Catcher was a position of need for the Bucs this winter, and they’ve now reinforced things behind the plate in re-signing Tyler Heineman to a minors deal yesterday, and now landing Hedges for what will likely be the bulk of the playing time.  Jason Delay or possibly Endy Rodriguez (the only other catcher on Pittsburgh’s 40-man roster) could also compete with Heineman for the backup job, and it’s possible former first overall pick Henry Davis might get his first taste of the majors in 2023.  Davis made his Double-A debut with 31 games last season and will move onto Triple-A this coming year, but the Pirates are naturally not going to do anything to rush one of their top prospects.

Last offseason, the Pirates signed Roberto Perez to a one-year, $5MM deal, only to have Perez’s season ended by hamstring surgery after only 21 games.  Now, the Bucs have signed Perez’s former Cleveland teammate Hedges to another $5MM pact in order to again add some veteran stability to the catching position.

Hedges came to the Guardians as part of the big nine-player swap between Cleveland and San Diego at the 2020 trade deadline, and immediately joined forces with Perez as the team’s regular catching tandem.  The Guardians have long focused on defense over offense from the catcher’s spot, with Hedges in particular reflecting that tactic.  Since Hedges debuted in the majors in 2015, his 54 wRC+ is the lowest of any player in baseball (minimum 2000 plate appearances).

With the glove, however, Hedges is one of baseball’s best.  He rates a +75 from the Defensive Runs Saved metric, and both Fangraphs and Statcast have considered him an elite-level pitch-framer as recently as 2019, though his framing numbers are more above-average over the last three seasons than at the very top of the class.  Hedges has thrown out 102 of the 338 (30.18%) baserunners who have attempted to steal on him during his career.

Hedges will look to continue this work with a Pirates rotation that is still relatively short on MLB experience, though Pittsburgh just added a more veteran arm in Vince Velasquez.  The Pirates have been actively picking up lower-cost veteran talent this offseason, signing Hedges, Velasquez, Carlos Santana, and Jarlin Garcia to one-year deals in free agency, while also picking up Ji-Man Choi in a trade from the Rays.

Padres Sign Matt Carpenter

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2:00pm: The Padres have officially announced the signing.

12:52pm: The Padres added some punch to their lineup Tuesday, reportedly agreeing to a two-year, $12MM contract with veteran infielder/outfielder Matt Carpenter. Carpenter, a client of SSG Baseball, can opt out of the contract after the 2023 season by declining a 2024 player option. The contract pays Carpenter a $3MM signing bonus and $3.5MM salary for the 2023 campaign, and he’ll have to decide on a $5.5MM player option next winter. He can also reportedly earn $500K bonuses for reaching each of 300, 350, 400, 450, 500 and 550 plate appearances in both seasons of the contract.

Carpenter, who turned 37 years old last month, enjoyed one of the more remarkable rebound campaigns in recent memory this past season. A three-time All-Star with the Cardinals, Carpenter looked to be on the downswing when he posted a combined .176/.313/.291 batting line in 418 plate appearances with St. Louis from 2020-21.

Last offseason, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic detailed the manner in which Carpenter reinvented himself, taking a data-driven approach to hitting and enlisting feedback from the likes of Joey Votto, Matt Holliday and a private hitting coach as he revamped his swing and his entire approach at the plate. The Rangers were intrigued enough to sign him to a minor league contract.

We often see stories of veterans making changes late in their careers, but few have found the level of success enjoyed by Carpenter. After hitting .275/.379/.613 in 21 games with the Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate, Carpenter was released by Texas (oops) and signed a Major League deal with the Yankees, for whom he posted a borderline comical .305/.412/.727 slash. Carpenter mashed 15 home runs in just 154 plate appearances, and while he was surely aided to an extent by the dimensions of Yankee Stadium, he still popped six of those round-trippers and batted .253/.333/.506 on the road.

Simply put — and in rather stunning fashion — Carpenter was baseball’s best hitter on a rate basis in 2022 (min. 100 plate appearances). He led all of baseball in slugging percentage, isolated power (slugging minus batting average) and wRC+ (217), ranked second to only Aaron Judge in terms of on-base percentage, and posted the 12th-best batting average of any player in the game. Carpenter’s rate of “barreled” balls (as defined by Statcast) was elite, and his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate both clocked in comfortably north of the league average. There’s no realistic way to expect him to sustain that pace, but Carpenter has clearly put himself back on the map as a viable big league slugger.

Unfortunately for both team and player, the revitalized Carpenter fouled a ball into his foot in early August, resulting in a fracture that wiped out the remainder of his regular season. A predictably rusty Carpenter jumped directly back onto the Yankees’ playoff roster but went just 1-for-12 with an alarming nine strikeouts between the ALDS and the ALCS.

With the Padres, Carpenter becomes the favorite for DH work, though the Yankees played him at both corner infield slots and in both corner outfield positions in 2022. He’s also logged more than 1900 innings at second base in his career, though defensive metrics on his limited work there in 2021 were unsightly, to say the least. Still, he could potentially serve as an option there in an emergency.

The agreement with Carpenter pushes the Padres to more than $246MM in actual cash payroll for the 2023 season and bumps their luxury-tax ledger to nearly $267MM, as projected by Roster Resource. The Padres are already well into the second tier of penalization and, given that they’re entering their third straight season over the luxury line, are being taxed at a 62% rate on every dollar in the second bracket ($253MM to $273MM). As such, Carpenter will cost them an additional $3.72MM in taxes for the 2023 campaign.

AJ Cassavell of MLB.com first reported the two sides had agreed to a deal with a 2024 player option. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the terms and financial details (Twitter links).

Tigers Sign Michael Lorenzen

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December 20: The Tigers have officially announced the signing.

December 14: The Tigers are reportedly in agreement with free agent starter Michael Lorenzen. It’s a one-year, $8.5MM guarantee for the CAA Sports client. The deal, which is pending a physical, also contains $1.5MM in possible incentives.

Lorenzen spent one season in Orange County. Primarily a reliever over seven years with the Reds, he hit the open market for the first time last offseason in search of a rotation opportunity. Lorenzen inked a one-year, $6.75MM pact with the Halos. It was a homecoming for the Anaheim native and Cal State Fullerton product. The season didn’t go entirely as planned, though, as he lost a couple months after suffering a shoulder strain in early July.

The right-hander returned late in the season, making five starts to close out the year. He worked five-plus innings while allowing three or fewer runs in each, finishing his year on a high note despite the Angels being well out of contention. On the season, Lorenzen made 18 starts and tallied 97 2/3 innings — a bit more than 5 1/3 frames per appearance. He pitched to a decent 4.24 ERA while inducing grounders on just over half the batted balls he allowed.

It was a fairly encouraging showing, although Lorenzen’s strikeout and walk marks were a bit worse than average. His 20.7% strikeout rate was a touch below the 21.6% league mark for starters. More concerning was a 10.7% walk percentage that was more than three points higher than average. Of the 153 starters with 70+ innings pitched, only six doled out free passes more frequently than Lorenzen.

Despite his inconsistent strike-throwing, Lorenzen showed enough to intrigue the Tigers to give him a second rotation shot. Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that Detroit plans to use him as a starter. He becomes the second roll of the dice for first-year president of baseball operations Scott Harris and his front office. The Tigers reunited with lefty Matt Boyd on a $10MM guarantee this month, giving him a chance to right the ship after losing much of the 2022 campaign to recovery from flexor surgery.

There are certainly reasons for optimism the 30-year-old Lorenzen (31 next month) could offer solid production out of the rotation. He has a deep arsenal, relying on each of his four-seam, sinker, changeup and slider more than 20% of the time and turning to a cutter for around 10% of his offerings in 2022. His changeup generated plenty of swinging strikes and his sinker was effective both as a swing-and-miss and ground-ball offering.

Lorenzen’s well-rounded arsenal helped him limit opponents to a meager .181/.272/.278 line during their third time through the order this past season, albeit with a fairly modest 17.3% strikeout rate. From a platoon perspective, Lorenzen had similar strikeout rates and plus ground-ball numbers against hitters of either handedness. He nibbled around the strike zone far too often against southpaws, however, walking 14.4% of the left-handed batters he faced.

Boyd and Lorenzen join Eduardo Rodríguez, Matt Manning and Spencer Turnbull in the anticipated season-opening rotation. Tarik Skubal will join the group once healthy, though he’s expected to miss some time after undergoing flexor surgery in August. Joey Wentz, Beau Brieske and Alex Faedo are on hand to compete for depth roles behind that group, while Casey Mize is expected to miss most or all of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last summer.

There’s substantial upside but also plenty of risk. Turnbull missed all of 2022 recovering from his own TJ procedure. Lorenzen, Boyd, Manning and Rodríguez lost huge stretches of the year, and Lorenzen hasn’t topped 20 starts since his 2015 rookie campaign in Cincinnati. It’s possible the Tigers look for another arm to add some stable innings to the mix, but the acquisitions of Boyd and Lorenzen suggest Harris’ staff prioritized upside over floor in their rotation pickups. That’s a sensible approach, as Detroit faces an uphill path to contention in 2023. If Boyd and/or Lorenzen can stay healthy and pitch well in the season’s first half, they’d likely be more desirable trade targets to a contender than a lower-upside innings eater would be.

With Lorenzen on the books, Detroit’s 2023 projected player payroll now sits around $124MM at Roster Resource. That’s still below this past season’s $135MM Opening Day mark, so the front office should have the freedom to identify a few more lower-cost targets of interest. Adding at catcher, third base and in the corner outfield could all be under consideration after the Tigers hit a woeful .231/.286/.346 this year.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Tigers were in agreement with Lorenzen. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic was first to report it was a one-year, $8.5MM guarantee with $1.5MM in performance incentives.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Twins Designate Mark Contreras For Assignment

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The Twins have made their signing of outfielder Joey Gallo official, announcing the move today. To make room for him on the 40-man roster, outfielder Mark Contreras was designated for assignment.

Contreras, 28 in January, has been with the Twins for his entire career so far, having been selected by them in the ninth round of the 2017 draft. He didn’t hit too much in the lower levels but he pushed himself up the ladder with his ability to play all three outfield positions and steal some bases.

Offensively, he seemed to take a step forward when reaching the upper levels, after the minors were cancelled by the pandemic in 2020. Splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A in 2021, he hit 20 home runs in 114 games and produced a batting line of .251/.338/.485 for a wRC+ of 117. His 29.6% strikeout rate was certainly on the high side but he also walked in 9.1% of his plate appearances.

In 2022, the Twins dealt with a large number of injuries and had to lean hard on their depth. Contreras got selected to the club’s roster in May and was frequently optioned and recalled throughout the year. He generally seemed overmatched in his first chances against MLB pitching, slashing .121/.148/.293 in 61 plate appearances. In 102 Triple-A games on the year, he hit .237/.317/.418 for a wRC+ of 94. He hit 15 home runs and stole 23 bases but also struck out in 29.6% of his trips to the plate.

Contreras certainly has concerns on his track record, especially with the strikeouts, having never posted a rate lower than 23.7% at any stop in the professional ranks. However, there are reasons to think he could garner interest from other clubs around the league. For one thing, he still has a couple of option years, meaning he can be stashed in the minors as depth. He also has some intriguing tools, especially outside of the batter’s box. All three of Outs Above Average, Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating gave him a positive grade for his outfield work this year. Statcast also ranks him in the 90th percentile in terms of arm strength and the 80th in terms of sprint speed.

In terms of his work at the plate, while he didn’t connect much, he did do some noticeable damage when he did. Statcast ranked him in the 56th percentile in terms of maximum exit velocity and he somehow tops the leaderboard in terms of barrels per plate appearance, minimum of 25 batted ball events, just ahead of Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez and Mike Trout. That’s a tiny sample but an interesting one nonetheless. With so many teams looking for left-handed hitting outfielders, he’s sure to draw some interest, just based on his speed and defense alone. If there’s some sneaky power in there as well, that’ll only make him more attractive. The Twins will now have one week to trade him or pass him through waivers.

Twins Sign Joey Gallo To One-Year Deal

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December 20: The Twins have officially announced Gallo’s signing.

December 16: The Twins are reportedly in agreement with outfielder Joey Gallo on a one-year deal that will pay him $11MM. The two-time All-Star is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Gallo, 29, has occasionally been one of the most fearsome sluggers in the league but is coming off a rough stretch. With the Rangers from 2017 to 2019, he was the poster boy for the three true outcomes: home run, strikeout and walk. In that three-year stretch, he struck out in 36.8% of his plate appearances while the league averages in that time hovered around 22%. His 14.3% walk rate was well beyond the 8.5% league average in that time. He also launched 103 home runs over that stretch, leading to a batting line of .217/.336/.533. Despite the huge punch-out totals, that production was 20% above league average, as evidenced by his 120 wRC+.

The seasons since haven’t been quite as smooth, however. In the shortened 2020 season, Gallo hit .181/.301/.378 for a wRC+ of 86. He seemed to bounce back in the first half of 2021, as he was sitting on a line of .223/.379/.490 for a wRC+ of 138 when the Rangers traded him to the Yankees. Unfortunately, he swooned in the Bronx, hitting .160/.303/.404 after the deal, 95 wRC+. He couldn’t quite correct course this year, as his first 82 games led to a .159/.282/.339 line and 82 wRC+ before the Yanks flipped him to the Dodgers at the deadline. The move to Hollywood didn’t change much, as he hit .162/.277/.393 as a Dodger for a wRC+ of 91.

Though those sub-Mendoza batting averages are certainly unpleasant to the eye, there’s plenty of reason to think he could get the train back on the tracks. For one thing, he’s still young, having just turned 29 last month. He also still knocks the snot out of the ball, as his hard hit percentage was in the 94th percentile in 2022, his barrel rate in the 98th and his max exit velocity 89th. The upcoming rules banning defensive shifts are likely to help him out as well, since he bats from the left side. According to Statcast, Gallo is shifted in 90% of his plate appearances, one of the 20 highest such rates in the league.

Even if he can’t bounce back at the plate, he can still be a valuable player due to his strong defense. He’s been given a positive grade in the outfield by Defensive Runs Saved in each season of his career, while Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average only gave him a negative number in 2022. For his outfield work as a whole, he has 43 DRS, 19 UZR and 7 OAA. Even though his bat was subpar all year in 2022, he was still worth 0.6 wins above replacement, in the eyes of FanGraphs. In 2021, when he was good at the plate with Texas but bad with the Yanks, he was worth 4.2 fWAR.

For the Twins, Gallo should slot into one of the outfield corners, with Byron Buxton in center. This only adds to a cluttered outfield mix, as the club has many options on its roster. It was reported last week that the club is getting trade interest in Max Kepler, as they also have Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Kyle Garlick, Gilberto Celestino, Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon, Matt Wallner and Mark Contreras in their outfield mix. Some of those players can also play the infield, but it’s quite the crowded dance floor. With Gallo now added into the mix, it would seem to make a trade of Kepler or someone else more likely.

The Twins should still have payroll space available, as most of their offseason has been geared around a pursuit of Carlos Correa. The club reportedly made him an offer of $285MM over 10 years, or $28.5MM per season, though he instead signed with the Giants for $350MM over 13 years. The Twins have now given $11MM to Gallo instead, taking a chance that he can rediscover some of his previous form in a new environment. This move brings the club’s payroll up to $118MM, per Roster Resource. The club’s franchise record for an Opening Day payroll was the $134MM figure they ran out in 2022, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Assuming they’re willing to spend at similar levels this year, they still have about $16MM to work with, though Kepler will have an $8.5MM salary in 2023 as well as a $1MM buyout on a $10MM club option. Moving him could create some extra payroll space unless they also take on some salary in the trade.

Despite unexpectedly landing a star like Correa for 2022, the Twins disappointed by finishing 78-84, 14 games back of the Guardians in the American League Central. They will now have to try to figure out how to be better without Correa in 2023. Better health would be one way, as they suffered an incredible number of injuries in 2022. Another path might be to reallocate his $35.1MM salary into multiple players and hope for surplus value, with Gallo now one of them.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported that Gallo and the Twins agreed at $11MM. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the one-year agreement.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Michael Conforto’s Market

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The Rangers made Michael Conforto an offer over the summer and have maintained interest in the free-agent outfielder throughout the offseason, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. That interest has led to recent talks with agent Scott Boras, who said earlier in the offseason that Conforto was eyeing a two-year contract with an opt-out opportunity after the first season.

Texas isn’t alone in courting Conforto. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that both the Blue Jays and Mets are still showing interest as well. (The Mets, of course, are the only team for which Conforto has ever played.) Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post adds (via Twitter) that the Rockies checked in but are not seen as a likely landing spot. Saunders lists the Cubs, Marlins and Rangers as teams more prominently involved in the Conforto bidding. Seattle and Houston were linked to Conforto earlier in the offseason, though the Astros’ reunion with Michael Brantley seemingly takes them out of the Conforto mix.

The Rangers are the most commonly cited suitor for Conforto, though that hardly ensures that he’ll be suiting up at Globe Life Field in 2023. Still, Texas has had a clear need for at least one outfielder all season but has thus far focused its free-agent and trade pursuits on pitchers. Conforto, 30 in March, would be a risky investment on a multi-year deal but would come with substantial upside; the former first-round pick posted a combined .265/.369/.495 batting line with 97 home runs, 86 doubles, three triples, a 12.7% walk rate and 24.4% strikeout rate in 1959 plate appearances from 2017-20.

Conforto’s platform year before reaching free agency, however, was disappointing. He followed that strong four-year run with a more pedestrian .232/.344/.384 batting line in his age-28 season in 2021. Conforto still rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets, banking on a team being willing to forfeit a draft pick based on the strength of his overall track record. That didn’t happen prior to last winter’s lockout, though, and Conforto went on to suffer an offseason shoulder injury that required surgery in the spring. Despite interest from the Astros and the apparent offer from the Rangers, Conforto did not sign over the summer, instead ostensibly preferring to wait for an offseason deal and a fully healthy return to baseball. (Had he played last summer, it’s believed he’d have been limited to designated hitter duties.)

Rosenthal suggests that some teams are concerned about Conforto’s throwing in the wake of that surgery, though he’s currently throwing from a distance of 150 feet. For the Rangers, Conforto could potentially slot into left field, given Adolis Garcia’s presence in right field. That might help to mitigate some concerns about his arm strength — if Texas even has any at the moment. Rangers left fielders were far and away the worst in MLB last season, batting a combined .186/.253/.255. Every one of those rate stats ranked dead-last in the Majors, as did the resulting 47 wRC+. Texas, incredibly, gave 13 different players a look in left field last season.

While the Rangers stand as an obvious and perhaps the best fit for Conforto, his other reported suitors are all sensible landing spots, to varying degrees. The Blue Jays have a nearly all-right-handed lineup and have seen Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s offensive contributions wane in recent seasons; Gurriel still hit for a strong .291 average in 2022, but his power vanished and his defensive grades have never been particularly strong. GM Ross Atkins said just yesterday that his focus was shifting to upgrading the offense — ideally by adding a lefty bat who could slot into the outfield. Conforto checks a lot of boxes for them. As with the Rangers, Conforto could likely slot into left field with Toronto, lessening potential concerns about his throwing arm.

The Mets, meanwhile, already have a crowded roster and a bloated payroll, but owner Steve Cohen and GM Billy Eppler seem undeterred by either of those factors. Conforto could factor into Buck Showalter’s lineup as a left fielder and designated hitter, perhaps pushing Daniel Vogelbach into more of a bench role than the platoon DH role for which he’s currently set. It might not be an especially clean fit, but the Mets perhaps feel they’d be a deeper and better team by adding Conforto, which could well bump Darin Ruf (who struggled following his acquisition over the summer) or high-priced catcher James McCann from the roster.

The Cubs’ outfield is largely set, with Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki lined up from left to right, but there’s plenty of opportunity for Conforto to join the mix and rotate through the outfield corners and designated hitter. Neither the Rockies nor Marlins are ideal fits, but it’s nevertheless notable that both have looked into a potential match with Conforto. Both teams need center fielders more than a corner outfielder, however. Colorado could push Randal Grichuk to center, but he’s generally graded out as a better defender in right field. Miami, meanwhile, already has a pair of corner outfielders — Avisail Garcia, Jorge Soler — in search of a rebound, though the latter figures to spend the bulk of his time at designated hitter in 2023.

Between a fair number of teams with interest and this offseason’s rash of free-agent deals that allow players to opt back into the market as early as next offseason, Conforto’s chances of reaching that goal of a multi-year deal with an opt-out seems attainable.

KBO’s NC Dinos Sign Erick Fedde

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The NC Dinos of the Korea Baseball Organization have signed former Nationals right-hander Erick Fedde to a one-year contract, per Jeeho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency (Twitter link). The Boras Corporation client will earn $1MM on the deal, in the form of an $800K salary and $200K signing bonus. That $1MM guarantee is the maximum amount that KBO clubs are able to commit to foreign players in their first year in the league.

Fedde, 30 in February, was the No. 18 overall pick by the Nationals back in 2014 and was long considered one of the sport’s top pitching prospects before making his Major League debut. A standout at UNLV, Fedde might have been selected even higher in the draft had he not required Tommy John surgery during his junior season. The Nats took him in the first round despite the health concerns, and Fedde breezed through the minors once healthy, regularly posting ERAs in the low-  to mid-3.00s before making his MLB debut in 2017.

Unfortunately, Fedde’s mostly healthy run through the minor leagues hasn’t carried over into the big leagues. He’s required 60-day IL stints for both flexor and shoulder troubles during a six-year big league career, in addition to shorter-term IL stints for shoulder inflammation and oblique injuries. He’s also struggled to miss bats in the big leagues, issued walks at an above-average clip and struggled to keep the ball in the yard.

In 454 1/3 innings at the MLB level, Fedde has a career 5.41 ERA with a 17.5% strikeout rate, 9.5% walk rate, 1.55 HR/9 and a 48.9% ground-ball rate. His sinker averaged 93.7 mph in 2017-18 and sat at 93.9 mph as recently as 2021, but this past season’s 92.5 mph average was a career-low mark.

Recent struggles notwithstanding, Fedde was once a high-profile pitching prospect who skated through the minor leagues and reached the Majors as a 24-year-old. He’s still yet to turn 30, so a strong run in the KBO could pave the way for Fedde to return to the Majors — perhaps even on a multi-year contract. Merrill Kelly, Chris Flexen and Josh Lindblom are just a few recent examples of pitchers reinventing themselves in the KBO and subsequently cashing in on a multi-year deal upon returning to pro ball in North America. Cardinals righty Miles Mikolas is the prominent overseas success story, though he found his success in a three-year stint in Japan rather than South Korea. Fedde will look to chart a similar path, and given his relative youth and former prospect status, he’ll be a particularly interesting case to follow with the Dinos in the upcoming season.

The Opener: Royals, Lyles, Braves, MLBTR Chat

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With the holiday season upon us, here’s a few things we’ll be keeping an eye throughout the day today around baseball:

1. The Royals and Jordan Lyles

Last night, reports came through that Jordan Lyles was nearing a two-year deal with the Royals. With Kansas City also having inked Ryan Yarbrough to a one-year deal, it’s possible this Lyles signing could take them out of the pitching market if completed. If that’s indeed the case, it would leave likely Hall of Famer Zack Greinke looking for a new club to play for during his age-39 season. Brady Singer, Brad Keller, Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch, and Jackson Kowar are among Kansas City’s current options to start alongside Yarbrough and Lyles. A Lyles deal would also take yet another veteran back-end arm off of the free agent market, which has been thinning rapidly for weeks.

2. Will the Braves add another bat?

The Braves signed Jordan Luplow yesterday to bolster their outfield mix, but coming off a 101-win season and a fifth consecutive NL East crown, it would surely behoove Atlanta to do more to address the holes in their lineup. With Dansby Swanson having departed for Chicago in free agency, the Braves look set to hand the keys to shortstop to youngster Vaughn Grissom, with Orlando Arcia available should he struggle. While another bat capable of playing short could help solidify the position, the most glaring holes in the lineup are left field and DH, even after the addition of Luplow. The trio of Luplow, Marcell Ozuna, and Eddie Rosario who figure to man left field and DH combined for a troubling -2.3 bWAR in 2022. While improvements from Ozuna and Rosario are certainly possible, both players are on the wrong side of 30 and haven’t been above average with the bat in a full season since 2019. Even with Travis d’Arnaud likely to pick up extra playing time at DH following the acquisition of Sean Murphy, it seems clear that Atlanta needs another bat for the outfield, whether that comes via free agency in the form of Jurickson Profar or David Peralta, or perhaps through trade, where a number of outfielders are reportedly available.

3. MLBTR Chat with Steve Adams at 1pm CT today

MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be hosting his weekly live chat today at 1pm CT. You can submit questions in advance if you like, and also use that link to check back at 1:00 and follow along live. If you can’t make it today, Anthony Franco will host a chat of his own later in the week, so keep an eye out for that one as well.

Orioles Have Received Trade Interest In Jorge Mateo

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The Orioles are drawing interest from other clubs in shortstop Jorge Mateo, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. The specific teams in contact with Baltimore aren’t clear, although he’s a natural fallback target for clubs that haven’t addressed the position via free agency.

A former top prospect in the Yankees and Oakland farm systems, Mateo at times can be undone by an overaggressive approach at the plate. He’s walked in fewer than 5% of his MLB plate appearances while striking out nearly 28% of the time, leading to a dismal .271 career on-base percentage. Things were even more extreme this past season, as his .267 OBP topped only that of Jonathan Schoop and Cody Bellinger among hitters with 500+ plate appearances.

While Mateo doesn’t have an especially well-rounded skillset, he tapped into the physical gifts that made him a high-end prospect this year. After bouncing from the A’s to the Padres, the 27-year-old landed in Baltimore late in 2021 via waiver claim. He got his first everyday run at the major league level this past season. Mateo’s plate discipline profile was ghastly, but he demonstrated his top-tier athleticism. He stole an AL-best 35 bases in 44 attempts, showcasing the speed that garnered top-of-the-scale grades when he was a prospect.

As Rosenthal points out, that kind of athleticism could be particularly appealing in light of the rules changes going into effect for the 2023 season. MLB is instituting a limit on the number of times a pitcher can step off the mound in a plate appearance and enlarging the bases, both of which should at least moderately incentivize base-stealing.

The league is also instituting limitations on defensive shifting, requiring clubs to keep two infielders on either side of the second base bag and four players on the infield dirt. Teams could place more of a premium on athletic defenders as a result, since it’ll be more difficult to compensate for players who have below-average range via strategic positioning.

Mateo thrived defensively this year, posting top-tier marks in over 1250 innings at shortstop. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him as 14 runs above average at the position, the third-highest mark in MLB. Statcast estimated Mateo at eight runs above par, tying him for fourth among shortstops. He showcased both high-end range and above-average arm strength and looks to have emerged as a plus defender.

Maintaining that kind of defensive production will be critical for Mateo unless he takes a significant step forward in his offensive development. This year’s .211/.267/.379 line was 18 percentage points worse than average, by measure of wRC+. His baserunning means he’s not completely a glove-only player, but he’ll need to sustain high-end defensive marks to remain valuable with such tepid output at the plate. That Mateo is attracting interest from other teams in spite of his offense is a testament both to his secondary skills and the scarcity of alternatives.

The star-studded free agent shortstop class was one of the stories of the offseason. All four of the top players — Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson — ended up changing teams. That somewhat surprising amount of shuffling leads to the Twins, Dodgers, Red Sox and Braves having to identify new solutions to replace their outgoing stars.

All four clubs have some internal possibilities, but none are ideal situations. Minnesota acquired Kyle Farmer from the Reds as a stopgap option, while Royce Lewis is expected back midseason after his tearing the ACL in his right knee for a second straight year. The Dodgers can move Gavin Lux from second base to shortstop while relying on some combination of Max Muncy, Chris Taylor and prospects like Jacob Amaya or Miguel Vargas at the keystone. Lux is a former top prospect coming off a productive .276/.346/.399 showing, but his below-average arm strength could be a concern on the left side of the infield.

Boston has a somewhat similar situation, with Trevor Story currently likely to move back to shortstop from second base. The longtime Rockie was a plus defender at shortstop for a while, but he also has a below-average arm at this stage of his career. The Sox don’t have as strong a collection of internal second base options as L.A. does, with Christian Arroyo looking to be the favorite for playing time if Enrique Hernández stays in center field. The Braves have utilityman Orlando Arcia and rookie Vaughn Grissom — who has played 63 career games above High-A and comes with defensive question marks from prospect evaluators — as their internal candidates.

It’s sensible all four teams could explore the market for shortstop help, and clubs like the Angels and Diamondbacks could check in as well. Free agency is largely picked through at this point, with Elvis Andrus standing out as the top option remaining. José Iglesias offers a high-contact depth option and Andrelton Simmons is still an excellent defender, but neither profiles as a regular for a hopeful contender.

Trade possibilities also seems sparse. The Guardians could perhaps listen to offers on Amed Rosario for his final season of arbitration control. There’s been no indication this offseason they’re planning to do so, however. The Brewers are reportedly informing teams they’re not dealing Willy Adames; the same is true of the White Sox with Tim Anderson. Players like Nick Ahmed or Nicky Lopez could be dealt, but they’re defense-only types who’d be below-average everyday players for a win-now team.

Mateo is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $1.8MM salary during his first season of arbitration eligibility. He’ll go through the process twice more before hitting the open market after the 2025 campaign. That extended window of control means the Orioles don’t have to deal him, and there’s no indication they’re actively shopping him. Baltimore’s rebuild is in the rearview mirror, and Mateo’s modest arbitration salary isn’t placing any financial pressure on the organization.

There’s logic for general manager Mike Elias and his staff to entertain trade offers, though, particularly if they’re wary of Mateo’s ability to maintain his 2022 pace with the glove. The lack of other options for teams desperate for shortstop help could increase their sense of urgency to pursue him, while Baltimore has a number of prospects they hope will eventually unseat him as the franchise shortstop.

Gunnar Henderson debuted at the end of the season, primarily working at third base in deference to Mateo. The O’s could roll with a left side infield of Mateo and Henderson while having Ramón Urías and the recently-signed Adam Frazier share reps at second base. Baltimore has highly-regarded prospects Jordan Westburg and Joey Ortiz just behind that group, with both players coming off quality seasons for Triple-A Norfolk. Westburg and Ortiz — the latter of whom is already on the 40-man roster — could each find themselves in the majors fairly early in the 2023 campaign, and both are regarded by various prospect evaluators as potential everyday shortstops.

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