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Cardinals Sign Tyler Heineman

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The Cardinals announced they’ve signed catcher Tyler Heineman to a minor-league contract. He’ll receive an invitation to spring training.

Heineman, 29, has seen sparse major league action over the past two seasons with the Marlins and Giants. In 62 MLB plate appearances, he owns a .208/.288/.302 line. The switch-hitter boasts a much stronger .287/.353/.430 slash over parts of five seasons in Triple-A.

The St. Louis organization is facing some uncertainty behind the plate for the first time in recent memory. Franchise icon Yadier Molina is on the open market, where he’s seeing rather robust interest. Also hitting free agency is Matt Wieters, leaving Andrew Knizner as the only catcher currently on the 40-man roster. The addition of a quality depth piece on a minor-league arrangement certainly doesn’t prohibit the Cardinals from brining Molina back. If the 38-year-old were to wind up elsewhere, St. Louis would likely bring in additional names from outside the organization to work with Knizner.

Latest On Phillies Front Office Search

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The future of the Phillies front office has been in flux since general manager Matt Klentak stepped down in the first week of October. Since that time, president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail and interim GM Ned Rice have been leading day-to-day operations, an arrangement that reportedly could continue through the end of next season.

However, Philadelphia expects to begin interviewing potential candidates next week, reports Jayson Stark of the Athletic. It seems the Phillies are planning to make a pair of hires: a president of baseball operations to lead the department, and a new general manager to serve as that individual’s top lieutenant.

That kind of arrangement has become increasingly common throughout the sport, but the Phillies are leaving open the possibility of taking a less typical approach to the hiring process. The Phils would unsurprisingly prefer to hire the team president before turning to the GM search, Stark notes. However, that’s not a mandate, as Stark suggests the organization could hire the GM first if circumstances dictate.

That’d be an odd course of action- one would think any incoming president would want to have a say in the GM hiring process- but it’s apparently not out of the question. It also remains possible, Stark says, the organization elects to halt the hiring process midway through and allow the MacPhail-Rice pairing to continue to run the club next year. (MacPhail is generally expected to retire after the 2021 season, but it’s possible a more immediate restructure leads him to step away sooner).

Assuming the Phillies do commit to finalizing the front office this winter, they could opt to pursue a number of different candidates. The organization is leaving open the possibility of pursuing high-profile executives with past experience leading baseball ops, as well as considering “rising stars” types similar to recent Angels hire Perry Minasian, Stark adds. There remains plenty of uncertainty regarding the Phils’ ultimate course of action, but it seems the process will kick into gear in the coming days.

Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees

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The Yankees clinched another postseason berth in 2020 before falling short in the playoffs once again. They’re now facing offseason questions in their middle infield, at catcher and in their pitching staff. Those issues could be difficult to properly address if the club decides to tamp down its payroll, which seems likely.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

As Joel Sherman of the New York Post detailed last month, it could be a relatively low-spending offseason for the Yankees if their goal is to get under the $210MM luxury-tax line in 2021. They may only add around $30MM to a payroll that is already in the $170MM range with guaranteed deals, arbitration raises and rookie contracts. That’s problematic for a team with a pair of high-end free agents and needs to address.

The biggest possible departure for the Yankees would be DJ LeMahieu, who has been their premier player since they signed him to a two-year, $24MM contract before 2019. The move couldn’t have worked out better for the Yankees, with whom LeMahieu went from solid contributor to superstar. The 32-year-old is coming off a season in which he won a batting title, led the AL in wRC+ and finished third in MVP voting. Great timing for LeMahieu during a contract year, but it could price him out of the Yankees’ range.

The Yankees did issue LeMahieu an $18.9MM qualifying offer at the beginning of the offseason, but he predictably rejected it. According to Sherman, they might be reluctant to do much better than a three-year, $48MM offer on a long-term pact, and it’s hard to believe he’d accept that. For what it’s worth, MLBTR predicts a four-year, $68MM accord, but it’s possible he’ll do even better than that.

If LeMahieu does exit, where would that leave the Yankees? It’s hard to imagine them turning the reins over to the light-hitting Tyler Wade. Fortunately for the Yankees, they do have some flexibility in their middle infield because of the versatility of shortstop Gleyber Torres, who has also played extensively at second base.

Should the team decide to leave Torres at short, it could pursue any number of Band-Aid free agents at the keystone, including Kolten Wong, Tommy La Stella, Jurickson Profar and Jonathan Schoop. Those aren’t especially exciting options on paper, though remember that LeMahieu didn’t look like the most thrilling addition when the Yankees brought him into the fold. Perhaps they’d be able to strike gold yet again on a somewhat understated pickup.

Moving Torres back to second would also present some possibilities for the Yankees, as free agency features a few accomplished vets at short (old friend Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons). Korea’s Ha-Seong Kim is going to be posted, so he could also pique the Yankees’ interest. And you can’t ignore the trade front, where the Indians’ Francisco Lindor is likely to wind up on the move. It’s also not unreasonable to think the Rockies could listen to offers for Trevor Story.

While middle infield is the main concern in the Yankees’ position player group right now, catcher isn’t too far behind. Gary Sanchez won their starting job with an all-world performance in 2016 and has held it down since. There have been defensive miscues and up-and-down offense since then, though, and now the Yankees may elect to pull the plug on the Sanchez era. They’re reportedly willing to listen to offers for Sanchez, whom they could non-tender if they can’t find a trade partner. They’ve also shown interest in free-agent catcher Yadier Molina, which doesn’t seem to bode well for Sanchez. Molina would figure to start ahead of Kyle Higashioka.

Molina’s aging, and his offense has declined of late, yet he’s still one of the top free agents at his position. J.T. Realmuto is No. 1 with a bullet, but whether the Yankees would dole out a $100MM-plus contract for him in their current situation looks iffy. They might not even be willing to go into the two- to three-year range for James McCann, the second-best backstop out there.

Meanwhile, the rest of the Yankees’ lineup looks pretty well set. Torres will be back to play somewhere. First baseman Luke Voit has developed into a star slugger. Gio Urshela remained a highly productive starting third baseman in 2020. His presence could push out Miguel Andujar if the Yankees find an enticing enough trade offer. Right fielder Aaron Judge and designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton aren’t going anywhere, though the team will need healthier seasons from the hulking duo next year. Clint Frazier finally broke out in 2020 and now looks like the Yankees’ answer in left field, while Aaron Hicks has center locked up.

There’s a question as to whether the club will bring back Yankees institution Brett Gardner as a reserve outfielder. New York bought out the 13-year veteran and saved $7.5MM in the process, but it could re-sign him for a lesser salary. If not, the Yankees might be content to plug in Mike Tauchman as their primary backup.

Whether or not LeMahieu, Sanchez and Gardner return next year, the Yankees should still feature a strong offense. Their rotation may be another story, however. Gerrit Cole delivered in the first season of a record nine-year, $324MM contract, though the Yankees don’t really have any sure things after him.

Of returning Yankees starters, Luis Severino has been an ace when healthy enough to pitch. The hope is he’ll get back to form next year, but he missed almost all of the previous two seasons because of serious arm injuries. Severino might not even be ready for Opening Day after undergoing Tommy John surgery in February. Domingo German sat out 2020 after a domestic violence suspension, though it appears the Yankees will pencil him in for some role next season. Jordan Montgomery is also an in-house front-runner for a starting job, but he had his struggles in 2020 after coming back from a TJ procedure. Otherwise, the Yankees have some younger hurlers they could turn to in Deivi Garcia, Michael King and Clarke Schmidt.

For now, the Yankees’ starting depth looks as if it’s going to take a hit in free agency. Career-long Yankee Masahiro Tanaka is on the open market, as are JA Happ and James Paxton. Tanaka, who has long been effective in New York, seems the most likely of the three to re-sign. He’s not going to come at an exorbitant cost – certainly nothing like the seven-year, $155MM contract the Yankees originally gave him. Other free agents who should be affordably priced include Jake Odorizzi, Charlie Morton, Corey Kluber, ex-Yankees farmhand Jose Quintana, Garrett Richards and Adam Wainwright, to name some familiar names. And the Yankees could explore trades for one of their former pitchers, the Rangers’ Lance Lynn, or the Pirates’ Joe Musgrove.

Considering the spending power the Yankees have typically shown off, perhaps you can’t rule them out for the No. 1 free agent available, NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer. Of course, that would require the franchise to hand out yet another massive financial guarantee. Notably, Bauer and Cole – who were teammates at UCLA – have not gotten along in the past. Bauer did, however, tell reporters this week that there is no feud with Cole (via Brendan Kuty of NJ Advance Media).

“I have nothing wrong with Gerrit,” Bauer said. “We had our differences in college and that was nine or 10 years ago at this point. I’m a different person now than I was then. I’m sure the same is true for him.”

Regardless of whether it’s Bauer or someone else, it seems probable the Yankees will sign or trade for at least one starter this winter. General manager Brian Cashman could also make an addition(s) to their bullpen, which wasn’t the lights-out unit the Yankees expected. They already retained Zack Britton, so he’ll be a key late-game piece again. Closer Aroldis Chapman isn’t leaving, while Chad Green, Jonathan Loaisiga and Luis Cessa should also be back. The Yankees would probably like to move on from the last year and $9MM of Adam Ottavino’s contract after a rough 2020, but it would be difficult to find a trade partner right now. If no team wanted Brad Hand for $10MM, why would anyone take on Ottavino at $9MM?

Hand is now looking for a job – as are several other well-known relievers – but that depends on if the Yankees are interested in throwing money around on bullpen upgrades. They could at least take a fairly low-priced gamble on someone like Greg Holland, Kirby Yates, Jake McGee, Joakim Soria or ex-Yankees Mark Melancon and Shane Greene. The top of the market includes Hand, Liam Hendriks, Blake Treinen, Trevor May and Trevor Rosenthal. Let’s not forget that the Yankees pursued superb Brewers reliever Josh Hader last winter. Maybe they’ll circle back there this offseason, though Hader would cost a significant amount in a trade package.

It was no surprise that the Yankees reeled in Cole, last year’s best free agent, an offseason ago. However, because of the economic issues the league is currently facing, this looks as if it will be a much less predictable offseason for the Yankees and just about every other team. If the Yankees actually are going to slash payroll, though, it could be a winter of discontent for their fans.

Reds GM Nick Krall Discusses Offseason Plans

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Reds general manager Nick Krall spoke with reporters (including C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic and Mark Sheldon of MLB.com) this afternoon about the club’s winter plans. Unsurprisingly, the Cincinnati front office will be on the lookout for shortstop help in the coming months.

“We lost Freddy Galvis. Shortstop would be something you’d like to address,” Krall replied when asked about the roster’s biggest need. Galvis, who led the Reds with 31 starts at the position last season, is now a free agent. He’d figure to come cheap if Cincinnati wanted to bring him back, but it’s arguable the now-contending Reds should pursue an upgrade at the position regardless.

Krall noted the organization remains high on touted prospect José García, but the 22-year-old slumped to a brutal .194/.206/.194 line over his first 68 MLB plate appearances. Krall didn’t rule out the possibility of García competing for a big league job next spring, but further minor-league seasoning seems likely considering García looked overmatched after making the jump from High-A to the majors this past season.

The top of the free agent shortstop market includes Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien and Andrelton Simmons, as well as KBO star Ha-Seong Kim. Cincinnati also makes sense as a potential Francisco Lindor suitor. It’d be a bit surprising to see the Indians trade the face of their franchise to an in-state rival, but the teams did line up on the three-team Trevor Bauer deal last summer.

Speaking of Bauer, he’s now the only ace-caliber pitcher available in free agency. Krall said the Reds have had preliminary, “not substantial” contact with Bauer’s camp to this point. Surely, the Reds would love to keep the reigning NL Cy Young winner in the fold, but they’ll face plenty of competition for his services. Even if Bauer departs, a 2021 rotation led by Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle would be an enviable group.

One other candidate for the rotation is Michael Lorenzen. The 28-year-old, primarily a reliever in recent seasons, hopes to earn a rotation spot in spring training. That’s a possibility, Krall confirmed, but the rest of the Reds’ offseason moves will shape Lorenzen’s ultimate role. Cincinnati has a few high-end bullpen pieces beyond Lorenzen, but the GM noted the organization is looking to lengthen the relief corps, preferably by adding hurlers with minor-league option years remaining. Optionable players are more likely to be found in trade, on waivers, or via minor-league free agency than by shopping at the top of the free agent market. To that end, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Reds make a low-cost bullpen addition or two this winter.

No Quick Decision Expected Between Twins, Nelson Cruz

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Despite mutual interest in a reunion, there hasn’t been much progress in contract talks between the Twins and free agent Nelson Cruz, according to The Athletic’s Dan Hayes.  “While the two sides have already had multiple discussions about Cruz returning, no decision is expected soon,” Hayes writes.

Cruz is reportedly looking for a two-year contract, which would be a relatively lengthy commitment for a player who turned 40 years old back in July.  However, Hayes writes that “no demands for guaranteed years have been made” by Cruz and his representatives, indicating some negotiating flexibility, and evidence that Cruz’s desire for a multi-year deal is more of a want than a must-have as he explores his free agent options.

Despite the natural wariness about paying big money to a player past his 42nd birthday, Cruz has yet to show any signs of regression as he approaches his 17th MLB season.  Cruz hit .303/.397/.595 with 16 home runs over 214 plate appearances in 2020.  In two seasons in Minnesota, Cruz has racked up two Silver Slugger Awards and a pair of top-nine MVP finishes (ninth in 2019, sixth in 2020).

Cruz has been such a good fit as the leader of the Bomba Squad that there is some level of expectation that he and the Twins will eventually work something out.  That said, after a season of lowered revenues, the Twins will look to be careful with every dollar they spend, and a payroll cut isn’t out of the question.  The possibility that the National League could adopt the DH for 2021 would greatly expand Cruz’s market, so there is some feeling that Cruz (and other defensively-limited free agent hitters) would wait for more concrete news on that rule change before making any contractual decisions.

Mets Notes: Tebow, Syndergaard, Heck, Rays

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Between a hand injury in 2019 and then the cancelled 2020 minor league season, Tim Tebow hasn’t played in an official game since July 21, 2019.  However, the 33-year-old former NFL quarterback hasn’t given up on his dream of playing in the majors, and he tells MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo that he is preparing for Spring Training and another season in 2021.  “[Baseball is] not something that I want to do forever…because there’s a lot of other things that are in my heart that I want to pursue,” Tebow said.  “But it is something that is still in my heart today.”

Over 287 games and 1048 plate appearances in the Mets’ farm system, Tebow has hit .223/.299/.338 with 18 home runs.  This isn’t an unimpressive achievement given that Tebow hadn’t played baseball since he was a high schooler in 2005, and as Tebow’s baseball endeavor enters its sixth year, it can hardly be written off as a publicity stunt given Tebow’s obvious commitment.  That said, Tebow’s promotions up to the Triple-A level haven’t been due to his actual potential as a prospect, and now that the Wilpon family and Brodie Van Wagenen (who represented Tebow as a baseball agent at CAA) no longer have a voice in Mets business, it is fair to wonder how much longer Tebow will remain in the organization.  Sandy Alderson, however, is on record as being a Tebow supporter, and the front office may still feel the bigger-picture appeal of Tebow as a Met is worth giving him another crack at Triple-A.

More from Citi Field…

  • Noah Syndergaard has begun throwing off a mound, as the right-hander revealed in a video on his personal Twitter account.  It’s a positive step in the rehab process for Syndergaard, who underwent Tommy John surgery back in March and will likely miss at least the first couple of months of the 2021 season while fully recovering.  While pitchers aren’t always immediately in top form after returning from a Tommy John-induced layoff, the Mets will surely welcome whatever Syndergaard can bring as an in-season boost to the rotation.
  • Rays special assistant Bobby Heck is still on the Mets’ radar as a front office hire, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports (via Twitter), possibly as the team’s new general manager.  Earlier this week, Puma reported that Heck wasn’t likely to be the Mets’ choice for the president of baseball operations job.  It seems likely that the Mets would find the baseball ops leader first before hiring a GM, in order to give their new front office leader input on their chief lieutenant.
  • For more Mets news, an edition of NL East Notes from earlier today on MLBTR included a surprising pre-Carlos Beltran managerial candidate.

Marlins Hire Kim Ng As General Manager

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The Marlins have made a groundbreaking hire, as the team announced that Kim Ng will be the team’s new general manager.  MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link) was the first to report the news that Ng will join the Marlins, making her the first Asian-American GM in Major League Baseball history and the first woman to ever act as a GM for a men’s team in any of the major North American sports.

Today’s news is the culmination of a baseball career that began almost 30 years ago, when Ng was hired as an intern in the White Sox front office.  Like many other Marlins hires, Ng has a connection to Derek Jeter, as she worked as an assistant GM with the Yankees from 1998-2001.  Ng then moved on to an assistant GM job with the Dodgers until 2011, and she has since worked for Major League Baseball as the league’s senior vice president for baseball operations.

Ng’s name has long been floated in past GM searches, as she was previously a candidate for openings with the Orioles, Giants and Mets as recently as 2018, as well as past vacancies with the Dodgers, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Angels, Mariners, and Padres.  These interviews created some anticipation that Ng would eventually be the first woman put in charge of an MLB front office, though after all the years and all the close calls, it was the Marlins who made the breakthrough decision.

The 51-year-old Ng will now oversee a promising young team that is coming off both its first playoff berth since 2003 and its first winning season since 2010.  While the Marlins’ 31-29 record in a shortened season isn’t quite yet indicative that Miami has wholly turned the corner after another rebuild, Jeter and owner Bruce Sherman appear to have gotten the franchise on the right track since taking over in 2017.

The Marlins decided to part ways from long-time president of baseball operations Michael Hill after Hill’s contract expired after the season, and there hasn’t been much news about candidates on Miami’s radar.  Jeter has often spoken about the collaborative process involved in the Marlins’ front office decision-making, so it makes sense that he would want another familiar and trusted voice in Ng to provide counsel and handle the day-to-day front office operations.

NL East Notes: Ozuna, Braves, Mets, La Russa, Nationals, Phillies

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Marcell Ozuna is unsurprisingly drawing a lot of early attention in free agency, as MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link) reports that the Braves and at least nine other teams have already shown interest in the slugger.  The list of suitors includes teams from both the National and American League, despite uncertainty about whether or not the DH will be available to NL teams next season.  Of course, Ozuna isn’t yet a full-time designated hitter at this point in his career, as he played 21 of his 60 games as a corner outfielder in 2020, but teams would undoubtedly prefer the security blanket of a DH spot for Ozuna over the course of a multi-year deal.

Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos has mostly preferred to invest in pricey one-year contracts for veteran players (including Josh Donaldson, Dallas Keuchel, and Ozuna himself) in free agency, though Atlanta signed Will Smith to a three-year, $39MM deal last offseason.  Ozuna’s next deal might be worth almost twice as much as it took to land Smith, but considering how Atlanta expects to be contending for the World Series, making the big investment to re-sign Ozuna might be deemed as worthwhile from the Braves’ perspective.

Some more from around the NL East…

  • The White Sox hiring Tony La Russa as their next manager was a controversial hire for many reasons, including the fact that La Russa hasn’t managed a big league game since 2011.  However, La Russa did receive consideration for a managerial opening just last winter, as Jon Heyman (in a radio interview on WFAN’s Moose and Maggie show) said the Mets interviewed La Russa about potentially replacing Mickey Callaway.  “Nothing came of” the talks and La Russa wasn’t extended an offer, as the Mets went to hire Carlos Beltran.
  • The Nationals seem likely to take a “middle of the pack” approach to spending this winter, The Athletic’s Brittany Ghiroli opines, operating as neither “big spenders or big savers” in the wake of revenue losses from the 2020 season.  Washington has over $161MM in projected payroll for the 2021 campaign, and though a lot of that is scheduled to come off the books next winter (most notably Max Scherzer’s salary), one would imagine the Nats might want to earmark some of those savings for possible extensions for Trea Turner and Juan Soto.  Ghiroli feels the Nationals will be active in free agency to some degree but doesn’t expect any splashy signings.
  • The Phillies are in their second round of interviews as they search for a new pitching coach, NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury writes.  There isn’t much known about the Phils’ search thus far, though Salisbury lists three of the candidates who were interviewed in the first round — two internal names in assistant pitching coach Dave Lundquist and minor league pitching coordinator Rafael Chaves, plus one name from outside the organization in Reds assistant pitching coach and director of pitching Caleb Cotham.  It isn’t known if any of Lundquist, Chaves, or Cotham advanced to the second-interview stage.  [UPDATE: Cotham has interviewed with two different teams, Reds GM Nick Krall told C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic.)

Notes From The Angels’ GM Search

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The Angels concluded their search for a new general manager yesterday, announcing that former Braves assistant GM Perry Minasian had been signed to a four-year contract to run the Halos’ front office.  At least 20 candidates reportedly interviewed for the position, and while several names had already been linked to the Angels, some other previously unknown executives were also on the Angels’ radar.

Dodgers assistant GM Jeff Kingston wasn’t just interviewed, but was also a finalist for the job, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports (via Twitter).  Previous reports cited Minasian and Mariners assistant GM Justin Hollander as the last two candidates under consideration, so it seems like Kingston may have one of the next group of finalists that also included Cubs senior VP of player personnel Jason McLeod and Diamondbacks assistant GMs Amiel Sawdaye and Jared Porter.

Perhaps best known for serving as the Mariners’ interim GM for the month between the Jack Zduriencik and Jerry Dipoto eras, Kingston is a familiar face in Southern California baseball.  He began his career as an intern in the Padres’ front office and rose to the position to director of baseball operations over nine seasons in San Diego before joining the Mariners in 2009.  Kingston remained in Seattle even after Dipoto took over as general manager, with Kingston receiving a promotion to assistant GM and vice president.  Kingston has spent the last two years working for the Dodgers.

Kingston fit the mold of many of the Angels’ candidates — well-regarded younger executives who were looking for their first opportunity to run a front office.  However, the Angels also explored making a big splash by poaching experienced names, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the Halos asked for permission to speak with Rays GM Erik Neander, Athletics GM David Forst, and Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti.  The Rays declined the Angels’ request to talk to Neander, though it may have been a moot point since “Neander does not wish to leave the [Tampa] organization.”

Forst and Antonetti “had personal reasons for not wanting to pursue the Angels’ opening” and are also “happy in their current jobs,” though Rosenthal left open the possibility that either Forst or Antonetti could be receptive if either were approached by the Mets for their vacant president of baseball operations position.  Former Marlins GM Michael Hill is the only known person to interview with the Mets thus far, but Forst, Antonetti, and a host of other candidates have been speculated as possibilities for what seems to be one of the most attractive job openings in baseball.  As Rosenthal noted, Forst has ties with Mets president Sandy Alderson, who worked as a senior advisor in Oakland for the last two seasons.

Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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Even though they finished under .500 for the first time since 2014, the Astros still found a way to overcome key injuries and make it to their fourth consecutive ALCS this year. However this offseason pans out, the Astros could still have enough talent on hand to push for another playoff berth in 2021. For now, though, general manager James Click & Co. are at risk of losing two high-end hitters in free agency.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Free Agents

Outfielder George Springer has been a premier hitter and a face of the Houston franchise going back to his first year in 2014, though his Astros tenure may be on the verge of ending. After rejecting the Astros’ $18.9MM qualifying offer, the 31-year-old is now unquestionably one of the few elite players on the open market, where MLBTR predicts he’ll rake in a five-year, $125MM payday. Of course, that’s assuming teams will be willing to spend that type of money this offseason after the pandemic took its toll on the league’s finances over the past several months.

The Astros, for their part, have doled out some huge contracts in recent years (the club also took on Zack Greinke’s money in a trade). They also threw around a bit of cash this fall when they made the somewhat eyebrow-raising move to re-sign first baseman Yuli Gurriel to a one-year, $7MM contract despite an uninspiring campaign. However, it remains to be seen whether all of the guaranteed deals on the payroll will have a negative effect on their chances of re-signing Springer, as owner Jim Crane may be reluctant to go to $100MM-plus lengths for him. Furthermore, as Cody Poage of The Crawfish Boxes recently explained in a rundown of the Astros’ payroll, they only have about $37.5MM to spend if they want to stay under the $210MM luxury-tax threshold in 2021. That would make it a challenge to combine re-upping Springer with adequately addressing their other needs.

Of course, along with Springer, the Astros may wave goodbye to another major offensive piece in outfielder/designated hitter Michael Brantley. The Astros didn’t issue him a QO, but they have had talks on a new deal with Brantley, whom they signed to a two-year, $32MM pact a couple offseasons ago. Brantley should get another reasonable deal in that range this time, though Houston would probably have to trust the 33-year-old as an everyday outfield option if it’s going to bring him back. Brantley spent the majority of the season at DH because knee problems wiped out Yordan Alvarez’s 2020, but Alvarez figures to regain control of that spot next year.

With Josh Reddick also on the open market, the only sure bet for the Astros’ outfield is big-hitting corner option Kyle Tucker. The cupboard is close to bare otherwise. Myles Straw endured a miserable year at the plate, so it would be hard to pencil him in as Springer’s replacement in center. And while Chas McCormick is a farmhand of some note, the 25-year-old is hardly a can’t-miss prospect, and he has no big league track record at all.  So, as is the case with Straw, it’s difficult to envision the Astros handing McCormick a starting job and hoping he can somehow help fill the Springer/Brantley void.

Considering their outfield issues, the Astros are going to have to use free agency and/or the trade market if they lose Springer, Brantley, Reddick or all three. Those players aside, there probably isn’t a better fit in free agency than longtime Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. Granted, there’s a significant drop-off from Springer to Bradley, but JBJ is still the second-best center fielder available and someone who should be in the Astros’ price range (MLBTR predicts Houston will ink him to a two-year, $16MM).

Joc Pederson and Jurickson Profar are the next highest-ranked outfielders in free agency, though neither would address the Astros’ hole in center. In Pederson’s case, there may still be bad blood stemming from the Dodgers-Astros World Series in 2017, so whether Houston would even have a chance at signing him is unknown. Even someone like Brett Gardner could be difficult to get in the wake of the Yankees-Astros 2017 ALCS and the animosity directed at the team’s sign-stealing scandal.

Beyond those names, there isn’t much to get excited about on the open market. But if Houston spends little in the outfield and settles for the next tier or two, the team will be looking at the likes of ex-Astros Robbie Grossman and Jake Marisnick, Kevin Pillar, Adam Eaton and Michael A. Taylor. Yasiel Puig could be a wild card to keep an eye on after missing all of 2020. The Astros-Dodgers rivalry could be in play with Puig, but he may be desperate enough to sign with anyone who shows interest in him.

Outfield troubles aside, most of the Astros’ position player group looks to be in place for 2021. Gurriel, Alvarez, second baseman Jose Altuve, shortstop Carlos Correa (if the Astros don’t unexpectedly trade him one year before free agency) and third baseman Alex Bregman are still there. Martin Maldonado is the favorite to return as their catcher, but if the Astros are willing to spend for an upgrade, J.T. Realmuto and to a much lesser extent James McCann may be on the table (it seems more likely the team would splurge on Springer than Realmuto, though). Otherwise, the Astros could at least look for an upgrade over reserve Garrett Stubbs. Yadier Molina, Mike Zunino, Tyler Flowers, Alex Avila, Wilson Ramos and former Astro Jason Castro are among the top backup/timeshare types looking for work.

On the pitching side, the Astros’ rotation somehow held its own in 2020 despite almost no contributions from reigning Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, who underwent Tommy John surgery in October. The timing of that procedure means Verlander also won’t help the team in 2021. However, they do still appear to have their one through five locked up with Greinke, Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy. The Astros could at least pursue some depth signings in case of injury and/or underperformance, but they don’t look like a team that has to fret over its starting staff or pour substantial resources into it this offseason.

The bullpen, on the other hand, could be a different story with Roberto Osuna, Brad Peacock and Chris Devenski on the market. The good news for the Astros is that they were able to adjust to life without them in 2020. Osuna missed almost the whole season with elbow problems, leading the Astros to cut the potential Tommy John patient. Likewise, Peacock and Devenski barely factored in for the club.

Even with the Osuna-Peacock-Devenski departures, the Astros still do have at least a handful of enviable relief arms in Ryan Pressly, Andre Scrubb, Enoli Paredes and Blake Taylor (though Scrubb and Taylor did struggle with walks in 2020). Joe Smith could reenter the fold after sitting out all of 2020, while Austin Pruitt, Brooks Raley, Cionel Perez and Josh James are also among those who could vie for roles.

Although the above names may well comprise most of Houston’s bullpen next year, it won’t be a surprise if the team searches for a reliever(s) who’s more of a sure thing. Luckily for the Astros, free agency is overflowing with veteran relievers who figure to come at fair prices. Even the heads of the class (Liam Hendriks, Brad Hand, Trevor Rosenthal, Blake Treinen and Trevor May) shouldn’t be overly expensive, and there are other credible hurlers in the lower tiers with Alex Colome, Kirby Yates, Jake McGee, Shane Greene, former Astro Mark Melancon and Greg Holland just some of many seeking MLB employment.

While it would behoove the Astros to bring in any relievers along those lines, it’s clear that the outfield is the biggest question Click will have to answer over the next few months. If Click is able to find two good complements to Tucker, it would go a long way in assuring the Astros remain in contention a year from now.

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