Red Sox Notes: Whitlock, Matz, Arroyo
The Red Sox are making an effort to retain free agent starter Eduardo Rodríguez, but the club has myriad avenues to potentially address their rotation. Right-hander Garrett Whitlock could be an option, as chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe) the team is open to the possibility of stretching him out as a starter in 2022.
The 25-year-old Whitlock spent essentially his entire career in the Yankees’ system as a starter, topping out with 120 2/3 innings across three levels in 2018. After plucking him away from their archrival in the Rule 5 draft, the Sox moved him into a bullpen role. That’s typical for a Rule 5 draftee, since teams often prefer to break those unproven players in with lower-leverage innings. But Whitlock proved to be one of the better Rule 5 selections in recent memory, earning himself a role of higher import as he continued to thrive. Ultimately, Whitlock tossed 73 1/3 innings across 46 relief outings (with another 8 1/3 frames in five postseason appearances). He posted a 1.96 ERA with a strong 27.2% strikeout percentage and a tiny 5.7% walk rate.
Moving Whitlock out of the relief role in which he’s been so effective isn’t without risk, but public scouting reports have long suggested he might be a viable starter. His debut campaign offered support for that idea, as Whitlock worked with a three-pitch mix and demonstrated plus control. He did have pronounced platoon splits — lefties hit .293/.349/.475 off him, while righties managed just a .199/.243/.278 mark — that could suggest he’s better deployed situationally, but it’s sensible for the front office to keep the rotation possibility open.
Looking outside the organization, the Sox are also among the teams with early interest in free agent starter Steven Matz, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Boston is certainly one of many clubs in contact with the southpaw’s representatives at Icon Sports Management, and Sherman adds the Tigers and Angels as other potential suitors, in addition to the incumbent Blue Jays.
Matz is coming off his third solid season in the past four years, having worked to a 3.82 ERA/4.12 SIERA across 150 2/3 frames with Toronto. The Jays didn’t issue him a qualifying offer, so signing Matz wouldn’t cost a team draft pick compensation. Entering his age-31 campaign, he looks to have a strong case to land a three-year deal.
While the Sox have seemingly focused primarily on the rotation during the first couple days of the offseason, Bloom tells Speier (separate post) that Boston could look into options at second base as well. It doesn’t seem bolstering the keystone is an absolute must, though, as Bloom went on to express faith in Christian Arroyo’s ability to handle the position. The 26-year-old was limited to just 181 plate appearances this past season because of injuries, but he hit at a slightly above-average level (.262/.324/.445) in that limited time. Jonathan Villar, Josh Harrison and César Hernández are among a few of the lower-cost free agent options available.
Former Nats AGM Adam Cromie Among Candidates For Mets’ GM Vacancy
WEDNESDAY, 5:08 pm: Jon Morosi of MLB.com also hears that Cromie is the frontrunner to land the position. Alderson told reporters (including Janes) that no decision has been finalized yet, however, and said multiple candidates remain.
WEDNESDAY, 11:10am: Cromie and Cohen met face-to-face Tuesday night, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. According to Sherman, “The expectation was that if that meeting went well that Cromie would be made an offer to be the Mets general manager.”
TUESDAY, 2:48pm: Cromie has a “real shot” to be named the Mets’ next general manager, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The team’s interest in him is “serious,” tweets SNY’s Andy Martino, though he also adds that there are still a few other candidates in the mix.
12:25pm: After weeks of courting high-profile executives to step in as president of baseball operations, the Mets are now focused on hiring a general manager, Sandy Alderson told reporters Tuesday (Twitter links via Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News).
It’s an important distinction in terms of title, even if the end result — bringing someone into the organization to oversee baseball operations — is largely the same. Focusing on a general manager rather than a president role further signals that the Mets will be zeroing in on executives who are at the assistant GM level rather than mining other clubs in hopes of prying away an existing GM or president of baseball ops, as they’d previously sought to do. Alderson emphasized that he does not believe the Mets will get to the point where he runs baseball operations himself (Twitter link via Newsday’s Tim Healey) — a role to which he does not wish to return.
Focusing on the AGM ranks broadens the field of possibilities for the Mets, although it also means the Mets may settle on a less-experienced baseball ops leader than originally hoped. That’s not necessarily inevitable, however; there are plenty of former GMs in non-GM roles around the sport. Dodgers senior vice president of baseball operations Josh Byrnes, for instance, has been a rumored candidate and previously served as GM of two different NL West clubs (Padres, D-backs).
Alderson declined to put a timeline on the search’s outcome but did note that a managerial hire likely wouldn’t be made until a new baseball operations leader is in place. Alderson’s hope, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets, is that they’ve already spoken to the candidate they’ll eventually hire. As for the struggles in terms of making this hire, Alderson rather candidly acknowledged that there’s been a struggle (video link via SNY).
“In some cases, we haven’t gotten permission [to interview a candidate with another organization],” Alderson said. “In some cases, I think people are comfortable where they are — whether it be a family situation or something professional. And in other cases, I think, admittedly, there’s a reluctance to come to New York — but I think it’s mostly about New York and not about [owner Steve Cohen], or the organization. It’s a big stage, and some people would just prefer to be elsewhere.”
One possible name that has recently emerged is that of former Nationals assistant GM Adam Cromie. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports (via Twitter) that Cromie is “in the mix” of candidates for the vacancy. He stepped away from the Nationals and from baseball in general back in 2017 to work at a law firm in Pittsburgh, per Janes. The Post’s Barry Svrluga notes that Cromie joined the Nats out of grad school and rose through the front-office ranks while putting himself through law school in the evenings before eventually deciding to fully pursue that legal career.
Diamondbacks Targeting Bullpen, Third Base Help
On the heels of an NL-worst 52-110 showing, the Diamondbacks are generally expected to be in for a quiet winter. Last month, Arizona GM Mike Hazen frankly acknowledged that competing in a loaded division in 2022 looked unlikely, and he sounded slightly more open than he’d been in the past to considering trades that would send away marquee members of the roster.
Still, Hazen pushed back against the possibility of a full rebuild at that time, and assistant general manager Amiel Sawdaye took a similar stance yesterday when speaking with reporters (including Zach Buchanan of the Athletic). Asked about the possibility of moving high-caliber, controllable players like Ketel Marte, Zac Gallen and Carson Kelly, Sawdaye reiterated that the D-Backs hope to build around what he called “cornerstone-type players.” Just as Hazen has on a few occasions, Sawdaye said the Snakes would “never say never” on any possibility, but he also didn’t sound anxious to tear the roster to the studs.
“We go into every season with the idea that we want to put the best possible team out there that’s going to go out and compete,” Sawdaye said (via Buchanan). “I don’t think we ever wave the white flag and say, ‘Well, we’re going to give up on ’22.” Sawdaye instead suggested the D-Backs would look for external upgrades, pointing to the bullpen and third base as areas of need.
The Diamondbacks had plenty of issues this past season, but it’s arguable that the relief corps was the biggest culprit. Only the Orioles and Nationals had a worse bullpen ERA than Arizona’s 5.08, and D-Backs relievers ranked dead last in both SIERA (4.56) and strikeout/walk rate differential (9.7 percentage points). Since the end of the season, they’ve already picked up a pair of relief options (Zack Burdi and Edwin Uceta) off waivers, but it seems they’ll scour the free agent market for additional options. Sawdaye didn’t suggest the D-Backs would play for top-of-the-market arms like Raisel Iglesias or Kendall Graveman, but the front office has plenty of lower-cost candidates to choose from. The Snakes can add at least add some veteran stability to the middle innings, since they’re only returning one reliever (Sean Poppen) who worked at least ten innings with a sub-4.00 SIERA in 2021.
On the position player side, Sawdaye called third base “the clearest need on our infield.” Eduardo Escobar and Asdrúbal Cabrera soaked up the bulk of the innings there this year, but both players were moved to contenders before the end of the season. The D-Backs could theoretically make another run at either player now that they’re free agents, but Escobar seems likely to price himself out of their market and Cabrera didn’t play particularly well. Beyond Kris Bryant and Kyle Seager, the free agent market offers mostly utility types at the hot corner.
Interestingly, Sawdaye suggested the D-Backs could try to pick up a controllable third base option via trade. Even if Arizona doesn’t wind up trading long-term assets, they could move someone like starter Merrill Kelly, who’ll make just $5.25MM in his final year of team control. Perhaps a Kelly deal could bring back a controllable infielder, and Sawdaye also floated the possibility of a “prospect-for-prospect-type deal” eventually coming together. The D-Backs themselves were part of perhaps the most notable trade of that kind in recent memory, when they picked up Gallen from the Marlins for Jazz Chisholm Jr. at the 2019 trade deadline.
There seems to be a bit of room on the books for the front office to make some upgrades, even if none of Sawdaye’s comments portend a pursuit at the top of the market. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource projects the D-Backs’ 2022 commitments around $80MM at the moment, and non-tenders of players like Christian Walker, Noé Ramirez and Caleb Smith could knock a few million dollars off that mark. Arizona entered the 2021 campaign with a payroll just shy of $96MM, in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. If owner Ken Kendrick is willing to spend at that level again, then Arizona could be more active than one might expect in augmenting the roster around the margins.
Boras: Rodon Seeking Multi-Year Deal
The White Sox made the somewhat surprising decision to not issue an $18.4MM qualifying offer to left-hander Carlos Rodón before this past Sunday’s deadline. That allowed Rodón to hit the open market unencumbered by draft pick forfeiture, and the Sox won’t receive any compensation if the All-Star signs elsewhere.
Rodón’s agent Scott Boras jokingly thanked the organization for not making a QO while speaking with reporters (including James Fegan of the Athletic) this afternoon. Boras flatly stated that they’d have declined a QO had it been made. Moreover, he seemed to shoot down the notion of Rodón signing a one-year deal with Chicago or anyone else this winter.
“Obviously, we’re pursuing a multi-year contract and weren’t going to sign a one-year contract,” Boras said. There’d been some thought Rodón could look to maximize his 2022 earnings on a one-year pact, hope to back up his stellar 2021 showing with another great season, then set out in search of nine figures next winter. It doesn’t seem that’s the course of action Rodón will take, at least not at the outset of the offseason.
A longer-term deal is certainly a justifiable goal. On an inning for inning basis, Rodón was one of the best pitchers in baseball this past season. He tossed 132 2/3 frames of 2.37 ERA ball, ranking second among the 129 hurlers with 100+ innings pitched. He also ranked second in strikeout rate (34.6%), third in strikeout/walk rate differential (27.9 percentage points), fourth in SIERA (2.96) and seventh in swinging strike percentage (15%).
The potential holdup on Rodón hasn’t been effectiveness, but health. He was limited to just 42 1/3 innings between 2019-20 because of injuries. After staying healthy for much of the 2021 campaign, Rodón wound up on the injured list with shoulder discomfort and missed a few weeks in August.
He continued to be very effective upon his return, but his fastball and slider velocity both dropped a couple ticks down the stretch. It’s plausible Rodón deliberately backed off the throttle in preparation for the playoffs, as the Sox had all but wrapped up the AL Central title by the end of July. His fastball velocity, at least, did bounce back during his lone postseason appearance. That outing lasted just 2 2/3 innings, though, and his slider remained in its late-season 84 MPH area rather than its usual 85-87 MPH range from May through July. The White Sox were eliminated by the Astros before Rodón had an opportunity to make another start.
Teams’ evaluations of Rodón’s shoulder figure to be critical to determining his eventual market power. Unsurprisingly, Boras told reporters that the 28-year-old (29 in December) is fully healthy. If team medical staffs agree, then Rodón looks likely to receive strong multi-year offers, since he’s one of a small group of free agent hurlers who has shown himself capable of putting up ace-like numbers at his best.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/10/21
Some minor moves taking place during this year’s GM Meetings:
- The Orioles have landed right-handed pitcher Rico Garcia on a minor league accord, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. A 30th-rounder drafted out of Hawaii Pacific University by the Rockies in 2016, Garcia has posted promising (if inconsistent) results throughout his minor league career as a starter. The righty received brief looks in the Major Leagues for a 2019 Rockies team and a 2020 Giants team before undergoing Tommy John surgery and missing the 2021 season with the San Francisco organization. He will likely serve as relief depth for a Baltimore team that needs it on the heels of a historically poor pitching season.
- The Angels have struck a minor league deal with outfielder Aaron Whitefield, reports SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson. The 25-year-old Whitefield signed with the Twins out of his native Australia back in 2015 and had been a staple in their minor league ranks since. The speedster is coming off a decent Double-A campaign in 2021 where hit .257/.327/.353 but with a tantalizing number of steals (36, in 48 attempts) and centerfield-capable defense. He’ll now serve as a depth option for a Los Angeles team that is frequently beset with injuries and look to get called up to the Majors for the first time since a three-game cameo with Minnesota in 2020.
White Sox GM Rick Hahn On Kimbrel, Rodon, Kopech
The White Sox enter the offseason coming off their first division title in thirteen years. General manager Rick Hahn has met with the media a few times in recent days to discuss a couple key early offseason decisions and provide updates on a few players already under team control.
First and foremost, Hahn addressed a pair of decisions Chicago has already made: exercising a $16MM club option on reliever Craig Kimbrel and declining to issue an $18.4MM qualifying offer to starter Carlos Rodón. Last month, Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggested the Sox could look to deal Kimbrel after exercising the option, and Hahn acknowledged that as a possibility.
“We view him as a potentially impactful reliever, as he’s been for the vast majority of his career,” Hahn said of Kimbrel (via Jesse Rogers of ESPN). “What we have to figure out is if it makes the most sense to have Craig in a White Sox uniform going forward or is there a better use of that spot and him perhaps via trade?”
Kimbrel’s one of trickier players around the league to value. As Hahn noted, the righty has been one of the best relievers in recent history over the course of his career. He’s an eight-time All-Star who posted an absurd 0.49 ERA with a 46.7% strikeout rate in 36 2/3 innings for the Cubs last season. But Kimbrel struggled badly with the North Siders from 2019-20, and he was tagged for a 5.09 ERA (albeit with a still-excellent 36.7% strikeout percentage) in 23 frames after being traded to the South Side at the deadline. There’ll certainly be plenty of teams intrigued by the possibility of Kimbrel as a late-game stopper, but clubs will have to weigh his upside against his recent run of inconsistency and fairly high price tag in 2022.
On Rodón, Hahn told reporters (including Scott Merkin of MLB.com) the team remained open to his return. “(The qualifying offer) was not offered to him. It doesn’t mean we aren’t interested in bringing him back,” Hahn said. “We have not ruled out him returning.” Nightengale previously reported the Sox didn’t intend to make a great effort to bringing the southpaw back, though, and it seems likely Rodón and his representatives at the Boras Corporation will be able to top the $18.4MM QO value — which Chicago was unwilling to risk, at least this early in the offseason — on the open market.
One could make the case the Sox already have an in-house option to step into Rodón’s rotation spot in Michael Kopech. The flamethrowing righty missed all of 2019-20 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and opting out of the 2020 campaign due to concerns about COVID-19. Chicago used him as a multi-inning relief weapon this past season to keep his workload in check, but Hahn told reporters (including James Fegan of the Athletic) last week the club is committed to stretching Kopech out as a starter in 2022.
The 25-year-old Kopech worked 69 1/3 innings in 2021, posting a 3.50 ERA with a huge 36.1% strikeout percentage and a fine 8.4% walk rate. There’s some risk in taking him out of a bullpen role to which he acclimated so well, but public scouting reports have long suggested Kopech could have top-of-the-rotation upside if given the opportunity. The White Sox are set to explore that possibility, although Hahn cautioned that Kopech may not be ready to take on an ace-caliber workload from Day One.
“I’m going to probably be sitting in this chair some point next summer explaining why we are doing something with Michael in terms of giving him a break in order to keep him strong over the course of that season,” Hahn said (via Fegan). “It’s the innings base and what can we reasonably tack onto him over the course of ideally seven months next year. We are going to have to be diligent in our monitoring of him over the course of the offseason as well as he goes through spring training, and over the course of the regular season in terms of how the ball looks coming out of his hand, what his mechanics look like, what the data is telling us, how Michael is reporting how he feels.”
Hahn also provided updates on a pair of injured players last week. Lance Lynn will spend the next 3-4 weeks resting and rehabbing a right knee issue that sent him to the injured list in late August (via Mark Gonzales). Outfielder Adam Engel, meanwhile, recently underwent surgery to address a left shoulder injury that landed him on the shelf in August as well (according to Maddie Lee of NBC Sports Chicago). That procedure is not expected to affect Engel’s readiness for the start of next season.
Cole Hamels Targeting Late Summer Return To Pitching
Shoulder issues have limited Cole Hamels to just one start over the past two seasons. The 37-year-old has no plans to retire, though, and Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports (on Twitter) that the veteran free agent recently underwent surgery to address his latest injury. According to Morosi, Hamels expects to be ready to return to game action by late summer 2022.
It’ll probably be another quiet offseason for Hamels, who lingered on the free agent market until early August this year after an injury-wrecked 2020 campaign with the Braves. The Dodgers eventually took a low-risk flier on the four-time All-Star. That didn’t pay off, as he suffered his latest injury while ramping up his throwing program and didn’t appear in a game with Los Angeles. Now facing another extended absence, it’s possible Hamels and his representatives at John Boggs & Associates don’t pursue another job until he’s further along in his rehab process next year.
Whenever Hamels is healthy enough to conduct a showcase, he should still attract interest from plenty of contending teams looking to bolster their pitching depth. After all, the southpaw was an effective hurler during his last healthy campaign. Over 141 2/3 innings with the 2019 Cubs, Hamels worked to a 3.81 ERA. He’d offered middle or top of the rotation production for essentially his entire career until these persistent woes cropped up, so it’s likely there’ll be plenty of teams willing to do their due diligence in evaluating his form after this latest rehab effort.
Cardinals Execs On Pitching Needs, Shortstop Situation
At the GM Meetings in Carlsbad, California, Katie Woo of The Athletic spoke to Cardinals President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak, as well as Vice President and GM Mike Girsch. The executives offered insight into the Cardinals’ offseason priorities.
Both execs cited pitching as the team’s primary need. Mozeliak spoke of the success of midseason pickups Wade LeBlanc, T.J. McFarland, Luis Garcia, J.A. Happ, and Jon Lester, and the need to replicate that depth addition. And Girsch noted the many 2021 Cardinal pitchers who are currently free agents, a list that includes LeBlanc, Garcia, Happ, Lester, Kwang Hyun Kim, Andrew Miller, and Carlos Martinez. The Cardinals currently have Adam Wainwright, Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, and Dakota Hudson as rotation locks for 2022.
According to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, “The Cardinals are looking for pitchers who they think can thrive with a superior defense behind them — which is most pitchers, but specifically sinkerballers.” Goold mentions Marcus Stroman as a potential target on the higher end, and Nick Martinez on the lower end. Martinez, a member of the Rangers’ rotation from 2014-17, pitched his fourth season in Japan this year and posted a 1.62 ERA in 149 2/3 innings. Other groundballers on the free agent market include Alex Wood, Clayton Kershaw, Jon Gray, and Yusei Kikuchi. The trade market could include Luis Castillo, Dallas Keuchel, and Sonny Gray.
Otherwise, Cardinals fans dreaming of a Trevor Story–Nolan Arenado reunion may want to temper expectations. According to Goold, Mozeliak said the shortstop market has “not been a focus for us” to this point. Both Mozeliak and Girsch made a point to defend Paul DeJong after a rough season, and to praise Edmundo Sosa‘s work. The execs made it clear they’re comfortable with internal options, especially with second/third baseman Nolan Gorman on the way.
Yankees’ Cashman On Carlos Correa, Anthony Rizzo
The GM Meetings are taking place in Carlsbad, California, and Yankees GM Brian Cashman spoke to reporters yesterday. Cashman said he has “some latitude” on the team’s budget, after talking to owner Hal Steinbrenner. The club was able to stay below the base luxury tax threshold of $210MM this year, effectively resetting as a first-time payor for future penalties – if something resembling the current system remains in place in the next collective bargaining agreement.
Cashman acknowledged to reporters that he’s already had talks with the agents for two free agent shortstops. Those players are Carlos Correa and Corey Seager, according to The Athletic’s Jim Bowden. ESPN’s Buster Olney is hearing that the Yankees’ pursuit of a shortstop will remain focused on elite players of this nature. Chandler Rome from the Houston Chronicle has more from Cashman on the Yankees’ interest in Correa. Cashman explained, “(Correa) is just a very talented player, obviously. Puts up numbers with the best of them. He’s obviously had an incredible career thus far. Certainly not afraid. He’s pushed forward, regardless of the circumstances. He’s clearly not afraid because (the sign-stealing fallout) has not affected his play.”
There’s been a sentiment that perhaps Yankees fans would not tolerate or accept Correa. That doesn’t seem to be Cashman’s primary concern, as the fans’ reaction “is not going to enter my calculus right now.”
Correa, who seems unlikely to sign before a potential December lockout, is reported to have received a five-year, $160MM offer from the Astros that seems more for show than anything. As the top player on the free agent market, Correa is in line for $300MM or more.
Cashman has also spoken to the agent for first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who appeared in 50 games for the Yankees after a July trade. The GM noted, “He obviously was really good for us, we feel, both on the offensive side and on the defensive side and on the leadership side, so he brings a lot of good things to the table. I know he liked it here, I know we liked having him, but nothing has gone past that.” Rizzo, 32, put up a 113 wRC+ for the Yankees. In projecting a three-year, $45MM contract, MLBTR took into account intangibles like Rizzo’s reputation around the game.
The Yankees still have an incumbent first baseman in Luke Voit, who was limited to 68 games on the season due to injuries. MLBTR projects Voit to earn $5.4MM next year, and it’s possible the Yankees move on from him. Voit’s troublesome left knee is “resolved,” according to Cashman.
Perhaps the most intriguing possibility for the Yankees at first base is a trade for Matt Olson of the Athletics. Olson, 28 in March, posted a 146 wRC+ with 39 home runs this year and is projected to earn $12MM through arbitration. According to Brendan Kuty of NJ.com, the Yankees have internally discussed trading for Olson.
The Yankees would also like to add some help in center field, tweets Jon Heyman of MLB Network. Aaron Hicks, who played in only 32 games this year, is still owed $41MM through 2025. Hicks, whose season ended in May due to wrist surgery, hopes to play winter ball, noted Lindsey Adler of The Athletic back in October. The Yankees filled the void this year with 38-year-old Brett Gardner, who recently declined his $2.3MM player option in favor of a $1.15MM buyout. The free agent market for center fielders also includes Starling Marte, Juan Lagares, Chris Taylor, Kevin Pillar, and eventually Odubel Herrera. The trade market could include Kevin Kiermaier, Ketel Marte, and Byron Buxton.
Red Sox Have Made Multi-Year Offer To Eduardo Rodriguez
In addition to their one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer to Eduardo Rodriguez, the Red Sox have also made a multi-year contract offer to the free-agent lefty, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter). Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said earlier this week that there was mutual interest in a longer-term deal between the two parties (via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe).
Proposed terms aren’t clear at this point, but the fact that the Sox are trying to retain Rodriguez on a multi-year pact is nevertheless of some note. We’ve seen players accept a qualifying offer and still work out a subsequent extension in the past — Jose Abreu and the White Sox, for instance — but interest in Rodriguez figures to be robust. The fact that the Sox are looking at multi-year arrangements is at least a sign of a healthy market. Rodriguez has already been loosely linked to the Angels, and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets this morning that the Tigers have showed some “early interest” as well.
The 28-year-old Rodriguez was viewed by some as a surprise recipient of the qualifying offer on the heels of a 4.74 ERA this season. Beyond that mark, however, everything in the lefty’s profile looks quite appealing. Rodrgiuez posted career-best marks in strikeout rate (27.4%) and walk rate (7.0%) while effectively tying career-best marks in swinging-strike rate (11.7%), called-strike rate (16.4%) and opponents’ chase rate (33.7%).
Rodriguez was also among the very best in baseball in terms of limiting hard contact (90th percentile average exit velocity, 87th percentile hard-hit rate) and finished the season on a rather strong note. The lefty posted a 3.71 ERA and 2.89 FIP following the All-Star break, including a 2.11 ERA in his final four starts of the season. Rodriguez was pulled early in his Game 1 ALDS date with the Rays after allowing a pair of runs in 1 2/3 innings, but he came back strong in his next two starts, allowing just eight hits and punching out 13 with no walks over the course of 11 innings. In all, over Rodriguez’s past three healthy regular seasons, he carries a 4.11 ERA, 3.63 FIP and 3.95 SIERA in just shy of 500 innings.
“Healthy” seasons is a key distinction, of course. The 2020 season was completely lost for Rodriguez when he developed myocarditis in the wake of a positive Covid-19 diagnosis. Rodriguez detailed the ordeal to James Wagner of the New York Times back in May, explaining that he couldn’t even get through 10 pitches in a bullpen session at one point before debilitating exhaustion overtook him. He was eventually barred from virtually any physical activity for three months, with even minor tasks like walking his dog and going to the supermarket off the table.
Given that context, it’s somewhat remarkable that Rodriguez was able to make it back for a full slate of 32 games in 2021 (including a lone, one-inning relief stint late in his final appearance). He tallied 157 2/3 innings during the regular season and tacked on another 12 2/3 in the postseason for a total of 35 games pitched. The Sox were seemingly mindful of his per-start workload, as he averaged just north of five frames per outing — a far cry from the six innings he averaged in 2019. Still, the overall workload is quite encouraging, given where Rodriguez was a year ago at this time.
All of that will be weighed by teams as they determine how aggressively to pursue Rodriguez, as will the fact that he’s tied to draft compensation by virtue of that aforementioned qualifying offer. Rodriguez has until Nov. 17 to determine whether to accept or reject that one-year, $18.4MM offer.