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MLBTR Poll: Braves Or Dodgers?

By Anthony Franco | October 18, 2020 at 4:50pm CDT

The National League pennant will be decided tonight. The Braves and Dodgers will kick off NLCS Game 7 in a few hours. The winner will take on the Rays next week in the World Series.

The Dodgers were the league’s most imposing offense in the regular season. Los Angeles has continued to mash in the postseason, averaging nearly six runs per game in the NLCS, thanks largely to Corey Seager’s recent home run barrage. Overall, L.A. has a 35-30 run differential edge for the series.

Atlanta’s lineup doesn’t have the depth of the Dodgers’ but the Braves obviously have ample high-end talent. Atlanta also has the more stable pitching outlook for Game 7. While the Dodgers will open with Dustin May, presumably to kick off a full-on bullpen game, Atlanta will hand the ball over to Game 2 starter Ian Anderson.

The 22-year-old Anderson has just six career regular season appearances under his belt, but he’s been downright stellar. The former third overall pick put up a 1.95 ERA over 32.1 innings as a rookie. Anderson punched out an impressive 29.7% of opposing hitters during the regular season while racking up grounders on over half the balls in play against him. The changeup artist also hasn’t been scored upon in 15.2 playoff innings.

The MLBTR readership was almost evenly split as to who would emerge victorious at the beginning of the series. (For what it’s worth, the Braves have since lost left fielder Adam Duvall to an oblique injury, unexpectedly forcing Cristian Pache into everyday duty). Predicting individual baseball games can be something of a fool’s errand, but we’ll turn it over to the readers nonetheless. Who will be celebrating a league championship tonight?

(poll link for app users).

Dustin May To Start NLCS Game 7

By Anthony Franco | October 18, 2020 at 3:01pm CDT

The Dodgers are starting right-hander Dustin May against the Braves in tonight’s NLCS Game 7, per various reporters (including Ken Gurnick of MLB.com). The hard-throwing sinkerballer started Game 5 of the series on Friday and went two innings, allowing two runs (one earned) on three hits with a pair of walks and three strikeouts.

May threw 55 pitches just two days ago, so he surely won’t be expected to work deep into tonight’s game. Game 2 starter Tony Gonsolin seems likely to offer bulk innings in relief. Of course, it’s a winner-take-all contest, so manager Dave Roberts will have a quick hook on all of his pitchers tonight.

The 23-year-old May recorded a 2.57 ERA/4.62 FIP in 56 regular season innings. He’s allowed only one earned run in 6.2 innings across four appearances this postseason.

Tigers Interview Pedro Grifol For Managerial Vacancy

By Anthony Franco | October 18, 2020 at 1:46pm CDT

The Tigers interviewed Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol for their managerial opening, reports Jon Morosi of MLB Network. The 50-year-old made a strong impression on Detroit higher-ups and has put himself in “the top tier of candidates,” Morosi adds.

Grifol has come up as a possibility in various managerial searches in recent seasons, including last year, when he was a finalist for the Giants’ job that eventually went to Gabe Kapler. He was also reportedly in consideration to replace Ned Yost as the Royals’ manager. The Royals eventually turned to Mike Matheny but promoted Grifol from catching/quality control coach to bench coach.

Tigers GM Al Avila has known Grifol since the late 1980’s and considered him during Detroit’s previous managerial search that eventually resulted in the hiring of Ron Gardenhire, Morosi notes. Avila is on the record as preferring a candidate with coaching or managerial experience, and Grifol fits that bill. The longtime coach has four seasons of minor-league managerial experience under his belt and has been on the Royals’ big league staff since 2013.

Grifol joins Dodgers first base coach George Lombard and Yankees hitting coach Marcus Thames as candidates known to have interviewed for the Detroit vacancy.

MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Mark Polishuk | October 18, 2020 at 12:52pm CDT

Click here to read the transcript of today’s live baseball chat

Marlins Part Ways With Michael Hill

By Mark Polishuk | October 18, 2020 at 10:31am CDT

10:31AM: In a conference call with Barry Jackson and Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald (Twitter links) and other media members, Jeter said the club had talks with Hill about a new contract but eventually decided to part ways. The club will have a GM/president of baseball operations in place, though Jeter likes his front office’s collaborative way of decision-making. Marlins director of player personnel Dan Greenlee has also been promoted to assistant GM, Jeter said.

9:12AM: The Marlins have moved on from president of baseball operations Michael Hill, the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link). The news ends an 18-year run for Hill in Miami’s front office.

The move isn’t a firing, as Hill’s contract with the club (an extension signed under previous owner Jeffrey Loria) was up at the end of the 2020 season. There hadn’t been any word about a new deal for Hill, yet today’s news still counts as a surprise, both because there hadn’t been any indication that Hill wouldn’t be staying on with the club, and because the Marlins are coming off their first playoff appearance since 2003.

Despite this recent success, however, it could be that majority owner Bruce Sherman and CEO Derek Jeter simply wish to cut ties with one of the few remaining faces from the Loria era. The Marlins organization underwent a pretty substantial makeover once Sherman bought the team in 2017, though Hill retained his job and helped oversee the Marlins’ latest roster overhaul.

Hill steadily moved up the chain of command over his long stint in Miami, moving from an assistant general manager to the GM job in 2007, and then the president of baseball operations role in 2013. It is a tenure that is difficult to properly evaluate, given the tumult that Hill often had to navigate amidst Loria’s controversial ownership of the Marlins. As noted by the Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson (Twitter links), “Hill never had total authority” to run the front office under either Loria or Sherman. “Loria made all significant personnel decisions in prior regime,” while Hill was the public face of the front office under Jeter but was “part of what was essentially a committee of people who gave input to Jeter on personnel moves.”

One common thread throughout Hill’s time with the Marlins has been the team’s knack for drafting and developing young talent, though time after time, this pipeline was undercut by Loria ordering ill-advised trades and major signings. Compounding the problem was Loria’s tendency to immediately lose faith in his team after failing to experience immediate success, which led to the front office having to then figure out how to cut costs and start over with another rebuild. The fact that the Marlins were able to generate a good core group of young talent multiple times over (both under Loria and under Jeter) is perhaps a hint of what Hill could achieve if he was able to run a more normal front office environment.

Hill is only 49 years old, and given his respected reputation around baseball, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him emerge as a candidate for one of the open GM/president of baseball operations jobs this offseason. The most immediate speculation has focused on the Reds, as president of baseball ops Dick Williams resigned earlier this month and Hill is from Cincinnati. It stands to reason that the Phillies and Angels might also have interest in speaking to Hill about their front office vacancies.

Speaking of the Angels, former Halos GM Billy Eppler could potentially be a candidate to step into Hill’s old role in Miami, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets, as well as Yankees VP of baseball operations Tim Naehring. Both Eppler and Naehring were in the Yankees organization during Jeter’s time in New York, and Jeter has shown a propensity for hiring people with ties to the Bronx.

It also isn’t necessarily clear whether or not a new Marlins hire would enjoy any more autonomy than Hill did, since Jeter is ultimately making the baseball decisions. A new GM or president of baseball ops might simply be trusted with handling day-to-day duties and being a member of the aforementioned “committee” reporting to Jeter. Joel Sherman of the New York Post notes that Gary Denbo, the Marlins’ director of player development and scouting, is seen around baseball as being Jeter’s top front office advisor, so a new general manager might not even rank second in Miami’s front office pyramid.

Still, there is bound to be plenty of industry interest in being part of a Marlins organization that has signs of turning the corner. After ten losing seasons, the Fish went 31-29 to reach the postseason and then defeated the Cubs in the NL wild card series before being swept by the Braves in the NLDS. This success was in spite of a widespread COVID-19 outbreak within the clubhouse that impacted 18 players and coaches and put the Marlins’ season on hold for over a week.

Dodgers Considering Options For Game Seven Starter

By TC Zencka | October 17, 2020 at 8:50pm CDT

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts declined the opportunity to definitively name his game seven starter after tonight’s win, per J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group and others (via Twitter).

Tony Gonsolin lines up for the job after stepping in to start game two for Clayton Kershaw. Gonsolin is not the guy the Dodgers would plan in a vacuum to take the ball in a must-win moment, but he nonetheless remains the most likely to see chunk innings tomorrow night, per MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick (via Twitter). The 26-year-old Gonsolin served as as swingman the past two seasons for the Dodgers, performing ably to a 2.60 ERA/3.02 FIP across 86 2/3 innings. His game two start was his first and only postseason appearance, however. He lasted 4 1/3 innings, giving up 5 earned runs on 3 hits and 3 walks while striking out 7.

Kershaw will be on just two days rest after back spasms scratched him from his originally-scheduled game two start. Roberts will check in with him tomorrow to see about the possibility of appearing in relief, notes Gurnick. Kershaw in relief hasn’t always ended the way the Dodgers would have liked, including last postseason when he surrendered back-to-back home runs to Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto to tie a similar win-or-go-home game five of the NLDS. Still, he’s a weapon if he’s available. In that same game against the Nationals, remember, he entered the game to retire Adam Eaton – which he did, via strikeout. It was only when pushed to another inning that the Nats’ big guns got the best of him.

The Dodgers could turn to Julio Urías in a similar capacity, though Urías would be throwing on three days rest after tossing over 100 pitches in game three’s shellacking. After tonight, Walker Buehler is probably the only arm on the roster who is absolutely outside the realm of possibility. Closer Kenley Jansen could also be a difficult call. He’s returned to form, but an outing tomorrow night would be three consecutive games and four in the last five.

Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register put forth an interesting suggestion (via Twitter): Brusdar Graterol could function as an opener to be followed by Gonsolin and Urías. The hard-throwing Graterol has to be pretty high up the list in terms of likelihood of seeing action – especially since he didn’t make his way into game six. Putting him out there to start the game would certainly be interesting. He was a starter for most of his minor league career with the Twins, after all.

Examining The Yankees’ 2021 Payroll Situation

By TC Zencka | October 17, 2020 at 7:10pm CDT

The Yankees 2020 season was a success by most measures – except for the 2nd-place finish behind Tampa Bay. The Rays took them out in the postseason as well, which was particularly galling with a payroll that (for a full season) floated around $265MM. The Rays, by contrast, fielded a payroll of around $73MM. As opposed to the old days, when the Yankees division rivalry with the Red Sox might prompt a spending spree to put them over the top, the Rays pose a new kind of threat. The Yankees cannot delude themselves into thinking their loss in 2020 has anything at all to do with money. The Yankees have to explore the possibility of doing more with less.

If there’s a model for the Yankees to mimic, it’s the Dodgers more so than the Rays. Though, considering that Andrew Friedman – the architect of these Dodgers – came from the Rays, one could argue that modeling oneself after the Dodgers is mimicking the Rays. The Yankees – lest we forget – are no slouches themselves when it comes to roster construction. Besides, it’s not any easier to become the Rays overnight than it is to become the Yankees overnight. Still, signs point to the Yankees facing a dramatic cut in payroll, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

Sherman suggests the Yankees will want to steer clear of exceeding the $210MM luxury tax line, which means taking a significant step back payroll-wise. Making it easier for GM Brian Cashman will be a whole slew of contracts coming off the books: James Paxton ($12.5MM), Masahiro Tanaka ($23MM), DJ LeMahieu ($12MM), J.A. Happ ($17MM), Jacoby Ellsbury ($5MM), and Brett Gardner ($7.5MM).

Taking into account potential arbitration raises, Sherman pegs the Yankees current 2021 payroll to be around $171MM, which leaves probably a little more than $30MM in payroll space if the Yankees do intend to stay south of the luxury tax line. Non-tendering or trading Gary Sanchez would save $5MM, but they would need to fill his roster spot in that case.

Otherwise, they need a middle infielder – or to bring LeMahieu back. If LeMeahieu leaves, they could explore the possibility of finding a glove-first shortstop to shore up the defense while moving Gleyber Torres to second. While it’s not fun to consider the possibility of losing LeMahieu, they could probably withstand his departure, especially with Clint Frazier looking like a viable starting outfielder. Not to diminish LeMahieu’s importance – he is the batting champ, after all – but the Yankees would otherwise return most of a crew that scored the 4th-most runs in the majors in 2020.

As much as the Yankees like LeMahieu, they have greater need in the rotation – and the money crunch is real. If Tanaka were to, say, accept a qualifying offer, their available money gets cut in half pretty quickly. LeMahieu, meanwhile, is looking at a contract that nets him $20MM per season, if MLBTR readers are to be believed.

Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, Deivi Garcia, Jordan Montgomery, Clarke Schmidt, and Domingo German provides manager Aaron Boone with a better group of rotation arms than many teams have, but they’re largely unproven (or coming off lost seasons in the case of Severino/German). Especially returning to a full 162-game season, depth is key in the rotation, a lesson Yankees’ fans know well. Without any additions, the Yankees would lean heavily on Cole for the second consecutive season. As good as he was this year, he can’t win a pennant all his own.

All that said, there could be some real bargains on the free agent market this winter. It’s an offseason unlike any we’ve ever seen before. With teams planning to cut payroll almost across the board because of the revenue losses caused by the pandemic, it’s hard to pinpoint any specific club that’s definitely going to spend big money. New York could explore moving some of their committed money – like the $13MM owed to Zack Britton and his 1.89 ERA in his final season on the books – but again, given the revenue losses all across baseball, there aren’t likely to be a lot of places to dump payroll.

Previewing The 2020-21 Free Agent Class: Second Basemen

By TC Zencka | October 17, 2020 at 5:31pm CDT

With the 2020 regular season having reached its end, there will be more and more talk about free agency during the upcoming weeks. MLBTR has already taken a look at the catchers, first basemen, shortstops, and third basemen due to reach the open market soon. We’ll now turn to the keystone, where utility options are in abundance.

Top of the Class

DJ LeMahieu (32): The American League batting champ is the cream of the crop at second base. Given his ability to slide anywhere in the infield, he’s about as valuable a commodity as can be found on the open market this winter. There will be widespread interest. Still, second base is his best position, and he’s easily the best player available in this spot. Don’t be surprised to see him sign somewhere with a need at the keystone – even returning to the Bronx. Since signing in New York, LeMahieu has posted an outrageous .336/.386/.586 slash with 36 home runs, 43 doubles and four triples in 871 plate appearances.

Potential Regulars

Jonathan Villar (30): Villar split his time between the Marlins and Blue Jays in 2020, but he fell short of reproducing the solid effort from the year prior. Between the two stops, he slashed just .232/.301/.292 while receiving regular playing time. There are some rumblings that he’s a second-division kind of guy, and he may have to choose between playing every down for a mid-tier club, or accepting a utility spot for a contender. He’s a dirt dog who runs well and can handle any spot up the middle, including centerfield.
Tommy La Stella (32): The A’s like La Stella and will likely try to bring him back. His ability to play second or third while posting professional at-bats and keeping the ball in play make him an appealing option league-wide, however. He’s also not likely to break the bank. He’ll not want to return to pinch-hitting duty, so a regular role will be a must – especially after a solid .281/.370/.449 effort between the Angels and A’s in 2020.
Cesar Hernandez (31): Hernandez impressed in his lone season with the Indians. If the price is right, both sides might look for a repeat performance after the long-time Phillie slashed .283/.355/.408 with a league-leading 20 doubles across 261 plate appearances. After middling defensive numbers with the Phillies, he got good marks for his work at the keystone in 2020 (6 DRS, 3.8 UZR). Hernandez should have no problem finding a regular role somewhere.
Jurickson Profar (28): Profar made good on his opportunity with the Padres, hitting .278/.343/.428 with 7 home runs across 202 plate appearances. He played more outfield than second base this season, but that was mostly a function of Jake Cronenworth’s breakout. Profar certainly enjoyed his time in San Diego, but his versatility could make him an asset on many teams. Where he suits up in 2021 should come down to price point.
Jonathan Schoop (29): Schoop mashed in his first season with the Tigers: .278/.324/.475 with 8 home runs in 2020. He still handles himself well defensively at second, but he doesn’t bring the versatility of many players on this list.

Part-Time/Utility Players

Enrique Hernandez (29): Kiké fits the mold of a number of players on this list, guys who can handle regular to semi-regular playing time while filling in all over the diamond. Hernandez has been the second-stringer to Chris Taylor in this role for the Dodgers, but he nonetheless gets somewhere between 200-500 at-bats per season, and they trust him in the postseason. He hit .230/.270/.410 in 2020, and if the Dodgers don’t return him to the roster, someone else will.
Freddy Galvis (31): Galvis slashed .220/.308/.404 across 159 plate appearances in his second season with the Reds. He can play both spots up the middle, and the switch-hitter does just enough at the plate to remain a viable option for everyday at-bats.
Jason Kipnis (34): The long-term Cleveland Indian saw regular playing time with the Cubs in 2020, slashing .237/.341/.404. He did just enough to keep getting the call at the 9-spot in the order, but he’s probably best utilized in a heavy timeshare.
Asdrubal Cabrera (35): MLBTR’s Steve Adams said it best when previewing the market for third baseman: “Cabrera isn’t a shortstop anymore, but he keeps hitting and is capable of playing second base as well as both infield corners. He’s commanded one-year deals the past few winters and will probably be in line for another one this winter.”
Josh Harrison (33): Harrison had a decent run with the Nationals in 2020 after the Phillies cut him loose. He hit .278/.352/.418 across 91 plate appearances while making a good impression on manager Davey Martinez. He runs well enough and plays everywhere except shortstop and catcher. Don’t be surprised to see the Nationals bring him back in 2021.
Brock Holt (32): Likewise, Holt impressed with the Nats after a disastrous turn to start the year with the Brewers. Not only did he hit .262/.314/.354 across 70 plate appearances in Washington, but he rocked a mustache and made two appearances on the mound.
Marwin Gonzalez (32): Gonzalez spent the past two seasons with the Twins, slashing .248/.311/.387. He maintains the ability to play everywhere, though he made just one appearance at shortstop over his two seasons in Minnesota.
Adeiny Hechavarria (32): The defensive wizard appeared in 27 games for the Braves this year, slashing .254/.302/.305. He hasn’t been in consideration for postseason action. His value on this list lies in his ability to play a competent defensive shortstop.
Chris Owings (29): Owings got 44 plate appearances with the Rockies this year and held his own, hitting .268/.318/.439. His value comes in his versatility, however. Despite only appearing in 17 games, Owings spent time at every position except pitcher and catcher, even pinch-hitting three times and pinch-running twice.
Neil Walker (35): Walker was a semi-regular as recently as 2019 for the Marlins and 2018 with the Yankees. In 2020, however, he appeared in just 18 games, slashing .231/.244/.308 with the Phillies. Defense has never been his forte, but he can handle a glove at first, second, or third, while even taking an occasional turn in the outfield.
Jed Lowrie (37): Lowrie’s disastrous tenure with the Mets ended with just 8 plate appearances in two years. If the long-time veteran can get healthy, someone will give him a look, but that’s a big if.
Logan Forsythe (34): Forsythe’s best days are behind him. He hit just .118 in very limited action this year for the Marlins, and it’s been a long time since he glory days in Tampa. Still, he provides a good eye at the plate and enough positional versatility to get a look somewhere as a non-roster invitee.
Joe Panik (30): Panik’s days as a regular at the keystone are probably over. He hit .225/.340/.300 across 141 plate appearances with the Blue Jays in 2020 while moving between second, third, and short. That’s his role moving forward, but the playing time he received in 2020 extrapolates to 380 plate appearances in a full season – I’ll take the under on that number moving forward.

Players with 2021 Options

Kolten Wong, $12.5MM club option with $1MM buyout (30): Wong doesn’t bring much in the way of power, but he puts together good at-bats and plays gold glove defense. He slashed .265/.350/.326 in 2020, putting him somewhat on the bubble for 2021, but chances are the Cardinals find some way to bring him back.
Daniel Descalso, $3.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout (34): Descalso won’t have this option picked up, despite providing more-or-less exactly what the Cubs hoped from him in terms of clubhouse/veteran presence. On the diamond, however, Descalso missed all of 2020 after slashing just .173/.271/.250 over 194 plate appearances in 2019.
Leury Garcia $3.5MM club option with a $250K buyout (30): This one could go either way. The White Sox love Garcia, and with Nick Madrigal coming back from injury, the ChiSox may prefer to bring back Garcia. He hit a palatable .271/.317/.441 across 63 plate appearances in 2020.
Dee Strange-Gordon, $14MM club option with a $1MM buyout (33): The Mariners will buy out Strange-Gordon after another lackluster season at the plate (42 wRC+). Great speed and the ability to play the outfield should get him a look somewhere, perhaps even with a contender in the mold of Billy Hamilton.

Latest On Red Sox’ Upcoming Roster Decisions

By TC Zencka | October 17, 2020 at 3:15pm CDT

The Red Sox have 53 players that must be on the 40-man roster or else be cut or exposed to selection in the Rule 5 draft, writes Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. That’s quite the roster puzzle to put together, though it’s not so different from the roster quandaries that every team faces this time of year. Cotillo suggests that Connor Wong, Hudson Potts, Jeisson Rosario, Jay Groome, Bryan Mata, and Connor Seabold are the prospects Boston will add to to 40-man roster in the coming weeks. Outfielder Marcus Wilson is also a fair bet to make that list.

Some of the departures are easy to spot, such as free agent to be Jackie Bradley Jr., or DFA candidates like Jose Peraza, , Matt Hall, Zack Godley, Andrew Triggs, Cesar Puello, Tzu-Wei Lin. Dustin Pedroia is also a likely removal, despite the $12.125MM he is owed for 2021.

The fact is, the Red Sox more likely to move on from much more than just 13 players, the number it would take to get their 40-man roster down to 40. They’ll need space to add players, as well. Especially for a team like the Red Sox – given their place in the rebuilding cycle – they are more likely to add a flyer or two, as well as make a selection in the Rule 5 draft.

Of course, arbitration is a particularly tricky process this season, complicating DFA decisions, which the Athletic’s Chad Jennings runs down using projections from MLBTR’s Matt Swartz as a guide. Rafael Devers has an interesting case as he enters his first season of arbitration. His .263/.310/.483 line with 11 home runs in 57 games this season was somewhere between his best and worst campaign, but without knowing how arbitration panels will handle the shortened season, projecting his salary is anyone’s guess. Swartz pegs Devers as being in line for somewhere between $3.4MM and $6.3MM. That’s quite the spread for one player, which only highlights the struggle roster architects have ahead of them this winter.

NL Notes: Kemp, Reds, Susana, Mets, Dodgers

By Mark Polishuk | October 17, 2020 at 2:07pm CDT

Matt Kemp stated last February that he was hoping to add four or five more seasons onto his career, and with the 2020 campaign and Kemp’s 15th MLB season now in the books, nothing has changed about his future plans. “That’s always been one of my goals, is to at least play until I was 40 years old,” Kemp said in an interview on the Power Alley show on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM. Kemp is still focused on capturing that elusive World Series ring, and “as long as I can continue to help a team win and do some great things in the game of baseball, I’m going to continue to do this thing until I can’t do it any more.”

The 36-year-old Kemp was an All-Star as recently as 2018, though he endured an injury-shortened 2019 season that led to minor league deals in 2020 with both the Marlins and Rockies, the latter coming in June. Kemp hit .239/.326/.419 with six homers over 132 plate appearances for Colorado, working primarily as a DH and pinch-hitter and only playing left field in one of his 43 games. It remains to be seen if the Rockies or another team will give Kemp another chance at extending his career, though his prospects at another contract would definitely get a boost if the National League fully adopts the designated hitter.

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