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Dodgers Notes: Rotation, Bench, Hernandez

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The Dodgers don’t yet know whether they’ll be heading to Milwaukee to face the Brewers or welcoming the Cubs into Dodger Stadium for Monday’s series opener of the NLCS, but that’s not stopping them from making plans for the series. In particular, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including MLB.com’s Sonja Chen) this afternoon that he expects the club to carry at least one more pitcher on their roster for the upcoming series after carrying 11 (plus Shohei Ohtani) in the NLDS against the Phillies.

That will consequently mean shortening up a bench that was six players deep during this past series. Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register suggests that utility man Hyeseong Kim and outfielder Justin Dean are the most likely candidates to be left off the NLCS roster. Kim, 26, has a wRC+ of 95 in 71 regular seasons games this year in his rookie campaign after signing with the Dodgers out of South Korea during the offseason. He’s primarily played second base this year but has also made cameos at shortstop and in center field. Dean, meanwhile, has just two plate appearances in the majors this year as he’s been used almost exclusively as a pinch runner by Los Angeles. He does have a stolen base this postseason, however, while Kim has made just appearance so far across L.A.’s two series.

Alex Call, Ben Rortvedt, and Miguel Rojas have all drawn starts in the playoffs already and seem likely to once again be parts of the bench mix headed into the NLCS. Dalton Rushing has seen virtually no playing time so far, but might be needed insurance for the Dodgers at the catcher position given that Will Smith is playing through a hairline fracture in his throwing hand. Keeping Rushing on the roster would mean that the Dodgers will have two catchers available even if Smith needs a game or two off at some point to manage the injury. Without a three-catcher setup, a day or two off for Smith would likely necessitate a placement on the injured list, which would then make him unavailable for the World Series if the Dodgers were to advance.

One player that definitely won’t be removed from the roster, it seems, is utility man Enrique Hernandez. Hernandez has served as the club’s starting left fielder this postseason and, while he’s known to have been nursing a day-to-day back injury since the Wild Card series against Cincinnati, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic relays that Hernandez is doing fine in spite of that injury and that the days off between the end of the NLDS and the start of the NLCS should help him get healthy. Hernandez has long been excellent in the postseason and that hasn’t changed this year, with a .318/.400/.409 slash line (132 wRC+) across 25 plate appearances.

Turning back to the rotation, Roberts indicated to reporters (including Chen) that despite both Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto needing extra rest built in between their starts, he does not anticipate the Dodgers needing more than four starters for their upcoming seven game set. That quartet figures to be the aforementioned duo of Ohtani and Yamamoto, plus Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow. Clayton Kershaw and Emmet Sheehan have both been available to provide length out of the bullpen so far, and headed into the NLCS it’s possible someone like Ben Casparius or Andrew Heaney is added to the playoff roster to give the team another long relief option.

Blue Jays Notes: Bichette, Scherzer, Bassitt

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The Blue Jays put together an impressive win in four games over the Yankees in the ALDS this past week, and it’s all the more impressive when one considers that they managed to pull it off without one of their star players. Shortstop Bo Bichette has been on the injured list since early September due to a left knee sprain, and did not participate in the Division Series as a result. With the ALCS against the Mariners scheduled to start tomorrow, it seems a decision on Bichette’s status has not yet been made.

Earlier this afternoon, Ben Nicholson Smith of Sportsnet relayed that, per Jays manager John Schneider, Bichette hit against live pitching yesterday and ran the bases today. Schneider added that how Bichette responds to that uptick in activity will help to determine whether or not he’s rostered for the ALCS. Keegan Matheson of MLB.com expanded on that, noting that Schneider suggested the decision on Bichette would be one of the last ones they would make before rosters are announced tomorrow morning. Per Matheson, Bichette still appeared to be experiencing discomfort when he ran the bases today, and he suggested that Bichette might be confined to a DH-only role if he does return to action.

As Matheson notes, a DH role for Bichette would push George Springer into the outfield and force a fellow outfielder like Nathan Lukes or Anthony Santander out of the lineup. That’s surely only something they would do if they were confident that Bichette was healthy enough to contribute substantially at the plate. On the other hand, if Bichette isn’t quite ready to return but making enough progress, Toronto could opt to roster him even if he wouldn’t be available for Game 1. That would come with substantial risk, however, as if he was placed back on the injured list at some point in the ALCS he would not be eligible for the World Series if the Jays advance.

Moving on to the rotation, Toronto made the somewhat bold decision to leave both Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer off their ALDS roster. Both veteran starters were left off for understandable reasons; Scherzer struggled badly late in the year, while Bassitt wasn’t fully stretched out after being placed on the injured list in late September. That was fine for a five-game set where the team could lean heavily on Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, and Shane Bieber to handle starting duties, but Schneider acknowledged to reporters (including Nicholson-Smith) that both Bassitt and Scherzer will be in the mix for the club’s roster given the need for “more length” in a seven-game series. All of those roster decisions will be made by 9am CT tomorrow morning, when rosters are due for both clubs.

Pete Alonso Expected To Seek Seven-Year Deal In Free Agency

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First baseman Pete Alonso is ticketed for a second consecutive trip through free agency, as he told reporters when the regular season came to a close that he intends to opt out of the final year of his contract and return to the open market. He won’t officially become a free agent until five days after the World Series concludes, but whispers about Alonso’s asking price as he returns to the market have already begun to percolate. According to Mike Puma of the New York Post, Alonso is expected to seek at least a seven-year deal as he returns to free agency.

It’s natural for players to set a high bar for contract negotiations entering free agency, but it would be something of a surprise if Alonso was able to secure that sort of arrangement. A seven-year pact would cover the slugger’s age-31 through -37 seasons, and that’s the sort of rarefied air that’s difficult for a defensively limited slugger to reach in free agency. Dodgers star Freddie Freeman is signed through age-37, but Freeman is an MVP winner and future Hall of Famer. It’s hard to argue Alonso is in that same stratosphere, and few other first basemen have managed to get that sort of long-term security.

Paul Goldschmidt’s extension with the Cardinals back in 2019 was for just five years and $130MM, ending after his age-36 campaign, and Matt Olson’s eight-year, $168MM contract extension with Atlanta is guaranteed only through his age-35 season. Both Goldschmidt and Olson were also Gold Glove winners for their work at first base when they signed those deals, while Alonso is viewed both by defensive metrics and many scouts as one of the game’s weaker first basemen defensively. While Puma points to Marcus Semien and Matt Chapman as fellow Boras clients who managed to land contracts in a similar range to what Alonso is expected to seek, it also must be noted that Chapman actually signed a six-year extension with the Giants after he had already been in the fold on a short-term deal similar to the one Alonso will be opting out of.

More importantly, Semien was a shortstop when he signed with the Rangers, and Chapman is a multi-time Gold Glove winner at third base. When it comes to financial expectations for infielders higher on the defensive spectrum, the bar is simply much different than it is for first basemen. That’s part of why players like Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa who have found themselves taking similar short-term contracts with high average annual values in free agency to the one Alonso signed last winter have been able to secure a higher AAV than Alonso did on a two-year pact. The same principle extends to larger deals, and helps to explain why someone like Xander Bogaerts managed to land a contract that will pay him through his age-40 campaign despite much less robust offensive numbers than someone like Alonso can offer.

Even if Alonso is unable to land the seven-year guarantee he appears to covet, it should still be expected that he’ll make out far better in free agency this time around than he did last season. After all, he’s no longer encumbered by draft pick compensation after rejecting a Qualifying Offer from the Mets last winter. That means a team that signs him away from Queens won’t have to forfeit draft capital in order to bring him into the fold, and that reality is likely to help his market a great deal. In addition, Alonso enjoyed a much stronger platform season this year than he did in 2024. This season, Alonso appeared in 162 games for the second consecutive season and slashed .277/.347/.524 with a wRC+ of 141, which tied his 2022 campaign for the second-best mark of his career.

Alonso famously rejected a seven-year, $158MM extension offer from the Mets back in 2023. That deal would have covered the last year of his arbitration eligibility, for which he ultimately received $20.5MM. In other words, he’ll need to make more than $137.5MM between 2025 and 2030 in order to surpass that benchmark. He made $30MM this year, meaning he’ll need to beat $107.5MM over the next five seasons if he’s going to exceed the value of that extension he passed on. It seems very safe to bet on him to do just that at this point.

Goldschmidt’s extension with the Cardinals, which covered his age-32 to -36 seasons, netted him $130MM over five years. While Goldschmidt’s 145 career wRC+ at the time of that deal was far stronger than Alonso’s career 132 wRC+ entering this offseason, Alonso will be entering his age-31 season when his next contract begins and will benefit from more than half a decade of inflation since St. Louis inked that deal just before the 2019 season began. Considering that he wouldn’t even need to match Goldschmidt’s guarantee in order to beat that 2023 extension offer, it seems safe to say that Alonso will come out ahead in free agency this year so long as he doesn’t have to settle for another short-term agreement.

Nick Krall Downplays Possibility Of Reds Trading Starting Pitching

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It was starting pitching depth that carried the Reds to their first full-season playoff appearance in more than a decade. Their bats ranked 14th in runs per game, 19th in OPS, and 24th in wRC+. Their gloves ranked 20th in errors, DRS, and FRV. Their bullpen ranked 14th in ERA, but 27th in xERA and 27th in SIERA. Yet, the Reds finished 83-79, edging out the Mets for the NL’s final Wild Card spot. How did they pull it off? Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer, Nick Martinez, Zack Littell, and Chase Burns had a whole lot to do with it. Those seven arms combined to start 152 of Cincinnati’s 162 games, pitching to a 3.69 ERA (84 ERA-) in 832 innings. Their collective 16.4 FanGraphs WAR and 8.64 Win Probability Added as starters helped the Reds finish with the second-best rotation fWAR and third-best WPA in the sport.

Martinez and Littell are set to hit free agency, but Greene, Lodolo, Abbott, Singer, and Burns will be back. Three promising arms who missed 2024 with injuries – Rhett Lowder, Brandon Williamson, and Julian Aguiar – should factor into the mix as well, as could top prospect Chase Petty. That’s a lot of names for one rotation.

Yet, president of baseball operations Nick Krall doesn’t seem overly eager to deal from that area of strength. “I wouldn’t say no,” he told reporters (including Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer), when asked about the possibility of trading a starter this winter. “But when you trade pitchers, you’ve got to go [back]fill them somehow. We all know how it works, where you run out of innings at some point in the season, guys get hurt, things happen.”

The POBO’s comments hit on a key point. The 2025 Reds didn’t just succeed because their starting pitchers were excellent, but because their staff was so deep. Trading away too much of that depth could leave the team scrambling in the case of injuries next season. Greene, Abbott, Lodolo, and Singer are presumably locks for 2026. Meanwhile, Burns, Lowder, Williamson, Aguiar, and Petty all have minor league options; presuming one of them wins the final rotation spot out of spring training, the other four (if healthy) can wait in the wings at Triple-A. Excluding openers, the Reds used 10 different starting pitchers in 2025. They’re going to need more than five to get through another campaign.

That’s especially true with this group of arms. Singer has proven himself to be a durable workhorse over the past few years. But no one else on Cincinnati’s staff has ever made 30 starts in a season. Abbott qualified for the ERA title for the first time in 2025, but Greene and Lodolo have yet to accomplish that feat. Burns, Lowder, Williamson, Aguiar, and Petty have started a grand total of 49 games in their young careers, and 26 of those belong to Williamson. As general manager Brad Meador mentioned, the Reds are “going to have to manage the innings of a handful of those guys.”

Krall also acknowledged that trading from his major league pitching depth might not be the most straightforward way to improve other areas of the roster.

“It’s really hard to say we’re going to go trade a pitcher – and I’m not sure you’re going to trade a pitcher for offense,” he explained. “You might end up trading the pitcher for a prospect and then go have to sign the offense.”

[Related: Cincinnati Reds Offseason Outlook, for MLBTR Front Office subscribers]

None of this is to say the Reds won’t end up trading a starter. It’s just not a given. Asked about the possibility of dealing Greene, an All-Star on an incredibly team-friendly contract (he’s guaranteed just $42MM over the next three years), Krall could have shut down the line of questioning. Instead, he replied, “I don’t want to speculate on anybody that’s going to get traded or not traded at this point.” The Reds aren’t actively shopping any of their young starters, but it doesn’t sound like anyone is untouchable either. After all, if anyone were untouchable, one would think it would be Greene.

That said, for all the same reasons the Reds wouldn’t want to trade Greene, he would bring back a nice return in a deal. All of Cincinnati’s starters are cost-controlled, with Singer, Lodolo, and Williamson still in their arbitration years, and Abbott, Burns, Lowder, Aguiar, and Petty not yet eligible for arbitration. Yet, Greene is both a proven ace and a high-upside young arm, and he is under team control through the 2030 season. That’s a valuable player.

If the Reds are looking to shave payroll, trading Singer would be their best course of action; he is projected to make $11.9MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility. If they’re trying to bring back an MLB-ready position player without significantly weakening their rotation for 2026, then it’s Petty, still a top prospect, who makes the most sense to move. However, if the goal is simply to find the best possible return, it’s Greene who would command such a package.

Nothing Krall said suggests Greene is on the block. But he had a chance to say Greene was off limits, and he didn’t take it. Instead, the POBO only said that he didn’t want to speculate about trade candidates because he hadn’t “had any conversations with other clubs.” Of course, Krall also said that when a team trades a pitcher, they have to somehow fill his spot. Greene, it should go without saying, wouldn’t be easy to replace. So, a trade still seems improbable – but perhaps it’s slightly closer to being a real possibility than Reds fans might want to believe.

Will The Pirates Trade Dennis Santana?

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After years of speculation, the Pirates traded their closer at this past summer’s deadline. David Bednar was shipped off to the Bronx for a three-player package headlined by catching prospect Rafael Flores. That opened the ninth inning for breakout setup man Dennis Santana, who got an extended run as a closer for the first time in his career.

Santana has been a revelation since the Pirates claimed him off waivers from the Yankees in June 2024. The Dominican-born righty tossed 44 1/3 innings of 2.44 ERA ball down the stretch that year, earning some stability with the fifth team of his big league career. He began this season in a setup role, then briefly took over as closer when Bednar’s early-season struggles got him demoted to Triple-A. Bednar was back in the ninth by the end of April, but the closer role became Santana’s for good after the deadline.

The various roles didn’t slow him down. The 29-year-old Santana turned in 70 1/3 frames with a career-best 2.18 earned run average. He recorded 16 saves and 12 holds while only relinquishing three leads all season. Santana had a less impressive 3.75 ERA after the trade deadline, yet that’s mostly attributable to a five-run blowup at Coors Field on August 1. He worked to a 1.90 ERA while holding opponents to a .152/.236/.291 slash in 23 appearances after that.

Santana doesn’t have the usual closer profile. He struck out 22.2% of batters faced, right around the league average for big league relievers. His 94.7 MPH average fastball speed is fine but not exceptional for a late-inning arm. Santana’s wipeout slider is his bread-and-butter offering, a pitch that gets enough whiffs that teams could project his strikeout rate to climb by a couple percentage points. He’s never going to be Mason Miller, though, and most clubs would probably project Santana more as the second or third-best arm in a contending bullpen.

Pittsburgh received trade interest in Santana at the deadline. The Phillies were the only team specifically known to have checked in, but it stands to reason the Bucs heard from at least a handful of clubs. They clearly didn’t find an offer to their liking. They’re now down to their final season of contractual control. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Santana for a $3.4MM salary that easily fits within the budget of any team, even one that runs payrolls as low as the Bucs do.

The Pirates aren’t intentionally rebuilding, but they’re coming off a 71-91 season that represented a step back from their consecutive 76-win campaigns before that. Should the Pirates view this offseason as a sell-high opportunity while letting Isaac Mattson, Justin Lawrence and Carmen Mlodzinski compete for the ninth? Will they?

Weigh in on our latest poll.

 

 

Jack Flaherty Undecided On Player Option For 2026

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Following the Tigers’ 15th-inning loss to the Mariners in Game 5 of the ALDS, right-hander Jack Flaherty (who pitched two scoreless innings late in the game) spoke to members of the media about how much he enjoyed returning to Detroit this season. “I came back here for a reason, to be with these guys, play with them, and be part of this team. I didn’t want to leave it last year,” he explained (per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi).

Flaherty, 30 next week, signed a two-year, $35MM guarantee with the Tigers in the offseason. Earlier this season, he increased that guarantee by reaching the 15-start threshold and escalating his 2026 player option from $10MM to $20MM. In a few weeks, he’ll have a decision to make: Will he opt in for 2026 or return to free agency for a third year in a row?

According to Morosi, Flaherty has not yet decided what he’s going to do. In an MLBTR poll at the end of September, more than 60% of readers said he should stay with Detroit, but Tigers beat writer Evan Woodberry of MLive.com claims “it would be a surprise” to see Flaherty pick up his option.

Flaherty signed a one-year, $14MM deal with the Tigers in his first offseason as a free agent. He was two years younger than he is now, but he was coming off a mediocre season (144 1/3 IP, 4.99 ERA, 4.53 SIERA, 1.8 fWAR) and had dealt with significant injuries in both 2021 and ’22. Following a much stronger 2024 campaign (162 IP, 3.17 ERA, 3.10 SIERA, 3.3 fWAR), he re-entered free agency but failed to land the long-term deal he was surely looking for, ultimately settling for his aforementioned two-year deal in February. That contract initially came with a $17.5MM average annual value, which he increased to $22.5MM. Now another year older and coming off a less impressive season (161 IP, 4.64 ERA, 3.67 SIERA, 2.5 fWAR), it’s worth wondering if he’ll want to risk another disappointing foray into free agency.

Because he was traded to the Dodgers ahead of the deadline in 2024, Flaherty was not eligible to receive a qualifying offer last offseason. It’s certainly possible he opts for free agency, only to receive a qualifying offer (projected to be worth around $22MM) and take it, earning himself an extra $2MM. The righty is precisely the type of player whose earning power could be hamstrung by a qualifying offer, so he might prefer to accept it, play another season with Detroit, and try to enter free agency in a stronger position the following winter. It seems like a safe bet that Flaherty could out-earn $22MM on a multi-year deal this offseason, but the AAV would likely be lower. If he believes he can produce a stronger campaign in 2026, he could maximize his total earnings by taking the $22MM and looking for a more lucrative long-term contract a year from now.

If Flaherty returns next season, the Tigers might run with a very similar rotation to the group they used in 2025, featuring Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, and a hopefully healthy Reese Olson. As things stand, Troy Melton, Keider Montero and Sawyer Gipson-Long could compete for the final spot, although president of baseball operations Scott Harris would be wise to look for some outside help.

Seven Players Elect Free Agency

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Now that the season is over, we’ll start seeing several players choose to become minor league free agents. Major League free agents (i.e. players with six-plus years of big league service time) will hit the open market five days after the end of the World Series, but eligible minor leaguers can already start electing free agency.

To qualify, these players must have been all outrighted off their team’s 40-man rosters during the 2025 season without being added back. These players also must have multiple career outrights on their resume, and/or at least three years of Major League service time.

We’ll offer periodic updates over the coming weeks about many other players hitting the market in this fashion. These free agent decisions are all listed on the official MLB.com or MILB.com transactions pages, for further reference.

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Bryan Woo Expected To Be Part Of Mariners’ ALCS Roster

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After an epic 15-inning win over the Tigers in Game Five of the ALDS, the Mariners are advancing to their first AL Championship Series since 2001.  The club’s hard-worked pitching staff will likely be getting some major reinforcements, as M’s president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told reporters (including the Seattle Times’ Adam Jude) that right-hander Bryan Woo is expected to added to the Mariners’ roster for the next round.

Woo probably won’t pitch until closer to the midpoint of the series, Dipoto said.  This means Woo is being lined up for a start when the ALCS shifts to Seattle for Games 3-4 and (if necessary) 5.  It also leaves open the question of who exactly will be starting for the Mariners in the first two games in Toronto, as the M’s used starters Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo out of the bullpen during last night’s 15-inning marathon.  Gilbert threw 34 pitches over two innings of relief, and Castillo threw 15 pitches over 1 1/3 frames.

Dipoto told Shannon Drayer of Seattle Sports 710 radio last night that “probably Bryce [Miller] and friends” would be the plan for Game 1, “but for a couple of days we may have to be creative…simply because so many guys had to pitch in today.”  Miller would be working on three days’ rest if he started Game 1, so as Dipoto implied, the bullpen may be leaned on again in what would probably be a limited start for the righty.  Castillo is probably the favorite to go in Game 2 with Gilbert’s availability also a question, and in theory, this could line up Gilbert for Game 3, George Kirby in Game 4, and Woo in Game if the M’s chose to deploy their full rotation.  This assumes that Woo will be used in a normal starting capacity, and holding him off until the middle of the series would give the right-hander more time to fully ramp up.

Woo posted a 2.94 ERA over 186 2/3 innings during the regular season, but he developed pectoral tightness in a start on September 19 that forced him out of the game after five shutout innings.  Woo hasn’t pitched since, though he wasn’t placed on the 15-day injured list, and he was able to throw a bullpen session and a simulated inning prior to the start of the ALDS.  Jude wrote prior to Game 5 that Woo threw close to 30 pitches during a bullpen session on Friday, and “appeared to be throwing at roughly 75 percent effort” before kicking things up “closer to 100 percent” for the final few pitches of the session.

Seattle and Toronto don’t have to reveal their ALCS rosters until tomorrow, so we’ll get the final word then on Woo’s involvement and whose spot he’ll be taking on the 26-man.  The move to a seven-game series likely means the Mariners will carry an extra pitcher after using 14 position players and 12 pitchers in the ALDS, so a rookie like Ben Williamson or Harry Ford could be the odd man out.

Gleyber Torres To Undergo Sports Hernia Surgery

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With the Tigers’ season now over, Gleyber Torres is planning to undergo sports hernia surgery, the second baseman told reporters (including the Detroit News’ Tony Paul) in the aftermath of the club’s loss in Game Five of the ALDS.  Torres revealed that he has been dealing with the injury for several months, and praised the Tigers’ training and medical staff for helping him keep playing.

“It was not good from the [start of the] second half,” Torres said.  “It was a lot of pain.  But we do a really good job keeping me playing….It’s not about the numbers, it’s just about playing every day.”

A look at Torres’ numbers, however, clearly reveals something was amiss.  Torres hit .281/.387/.425 over 359 plate appearances in the first half of the season, and was performing well enough to earn a starting nod as the American League’s second baseman in the All-Star Game.  Once the All-Star break was over, however, Torres hit only .223/.320/.339 over his final 269 PA of the regular season.  He seemed to rediscover his stroke over Detroit’s first seven postseason games, but an 0-for-6 showing in yesterday’s 15-inning marathon with the Mariners dropped Torres’ playoff slash line to .235/.316/.382 over 38 PA.

Torres’ slide mirrored the Tigers’ own fortunes.  One of baseball’s better clubs for much of the season, Detroit went 9-22 over its last 31 games and barely squeaked into the postseason field in the final AL wild card slot.  If the Tigers had retained their healthy AL Central lead, Torres likely would’ve gotten more opportunity to rest down the stretch, and yet the mutual struggles of player and team led to the Tigers led to an unfortunate Catch-22 situation.  The Tigers still needed Torres in the lineup as much as possible as their top-choice second baseman, yet Torres’ struggles kept adding to the team’s woes (though Torres was far from the only Detroit player to under-perform in September).

The injury adds context to Torres’ second-half decline, and adds a wrinkle to his upcoming free agent market.  Firstly, sports hernia surgeries usually take at least two months of recovery time and closer to 12 weeks on the longer end, so the procedure shouldn’t impact his readiness for the start of Spring Training.  Interested suitors might now wait until Torres is fully recovered before diving too deeply into his market, so it is possible he might not sign until late December or early January.

For the season as a whole, Torres hit .256/.358/.387 with 16 homers over 628 PA, with below-average glovework (though better public defensive metrics than his 2024 work as the Yankees’ second baseman).  This works out to 2.6 fWAR, which was still eighth-best among all second baseman in 2025.  Looking at the free agent second base market, Torres is still arguably the best option available, since Jorge Polanco’s time at second base was also impacted by injury.

Torres’ reps at Octagon will clearly make the case that their client’s first-half performance is a better reflection of what a healthy Torres can bring.  Detroit signed Torres to a one-year, $15MM contract last winter that was essentially a pillow deal for the second baseman, as he was looking a shorter-term deal and a better platform year in 2025 that would allow him to re-enter the market with a stronger set of numbers.  Torres hit .257/.330/.378 with 15 homers over 665 PA (with a 105 wRC+ and 1.8 fWAR) for New York in 2024, so while he did improve in Detroit, it wasn’t the leap ahead he was hoping to achieve.

Could a return to Motown be possible?  Torres is open to it, saying “hopefully we get a really good conversation here.  I feel really good with this group….It was really special this year.”  Retaining Torres would be a logical way for the Tigers to keep a right-handed hitting bat within their lefty-tilted lineup.  On the flip side, a longer-term deal with a second baseman might not appeal to a Tigers team that has some notable minor league infielders (Hao-Yu Lee, Max Anderson, and star prospect Kevin McGonigle) nearing MLB readiness.

Munetaka Murakami To Be Posted This Offseason

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Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami is going to be posted by the Yakult Swallows of Nippon Professional Baseball, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. It has long been expected that this would be the case, as it was reported three years ago that the plan was for Murakami to make the MLB move after 2025, but this report confirms that Murakami will be a key free agent to watch this winter.

The timing of the posting is not a coincidence. Under major league baseball’s international free agency rules, a player is considered an “amateur” if he is under the age of 25. These “amateur” players are subject to the international bonus pool system, wherein teams are hard-capped by annual budgets of roughly $4MM to $9MM. This was the case when Roki Sasaki was posted prior to his age-23 season. He eventually signed with the Dodgers and received a $6.5MM signing bonus, far less than he would have received with more open bidding. He is also treated like a minor leaguer, in that he will be making around the league minimum until he qualifies for arbitration and will be under club control until he accrues six years of big league service time.

Murakami won’t be in the same situation as Sasaki. He turned 25 in February will therefore be considered a professional under the current rules. Once he is officially posted, he will be free to negotiate with all 30 clubs for a period of 45 days and will have no restrictions on the kinds of offers he can receive. This situation is more analogous to that of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who also signed with the Dodgers. His 12-year, $325MM deal was in a far different stratosphere compared to Sasaki.

Sasaki was eager enough to come to Major League Baseball that he came young, despite the clearly lesser earning power with that path. Murakami has understandably waited until after his 25th birthday and should be in line for a nice payday.

What remains to be seen is exactly how strong his market will be. In his NPB career, he has shown massive power potential but also real strikeout concerns. He has generally been good for 30 to 40 homers per year, though he had a massive 56-homer season in 2022. This year, he missed a large chunk of the season due to an oblique injury and only got into 56 games, but he managed to launch 22 balls over the fence in that small sample.

He was also punched out 64 times in 224 plate appearances this year, a rate of 28.6%. He had that down to 20.6% during his amazing 2022 season but he’s been above 28% for three straight years now. Overall, he has hit .270/.394/.557 in his NPB career. Since MLB pitching features greater velocity and generally higher quality than NPB pitching, it’s possible his strikeout rate would increase with the move. For reference, the MLB average was 22.2% this year and there were only nine qualified hitters above 28%.

Murakami has primarily been a third baseman during his time with the Swallows. He has also dabbled at first base and even got a brief look in left field this year. Scouting reports have generally pegged him as a middling fielder who will likely end up at first base in the long run.

That will put more pressure on his bat but some clubs may be more comfortable with him playing third base for a few years. Teams will also have varying opinions about how he will be able to adapt to MLB pitching.

For players coming over from Japan, there have been all sorts of different results. As mentioned, Yamamoto had so much strong interest that he was able to secure a 12-year pact with opt-outs. Shota Imanaga got a creative four-year guarantee with a multi-year club option and player option structure after two seasons. Seiya Suzuki and Masataka Yoshida got straight five-year deals worth $85MM and $90MM respectively. Both of those hitters had better NPB batting averages than Murakami but without the same power ceiling.

Since the Dodgers have landed many Japanese stars, many fans expect that to be the outcome here. However, it’s not a perfect roster fit. The Dodgers have Freddie Freeman at first base and Shohei Ohtani in the designated hitter spot. They have an affordable $10MM club option to keep Max Muncy around as their third baseman next year. Signing Murakami can’t be totally ruled out but it may require them to move on from Muncy, who has been a cornerstone of the club for years and is still putting up good numbers, or perhaps try Murakami as an outfielder. Even if Muncy’s option is picked up, he’s slated for free agency after 2026, with Freeman only signed through 2027, so the long-term fit is better than in the short term.

The Red Sox would be a cleaner fit now, since Alex Bregman is likely to opt out of his deal and the club has questions at first base. The Mets have first base open with Pete Alonso set to opt out and they don’t have a clear answer at third base either. The Yankees could put him at first base, with Paul Goldschmidt becoming a free agent and Ben Rice capable of catching. The Cubs have Matt Shaw at third but almost signed Bregman last winter, so perhaps they are still willing to go after an external option there. The Tigers currently have Zach McKinstry at third but he’s capable of playing elsewhere. The Angels don’t have a long-term third base solution due to the ongoing injuries of Anthony Rendon. The Mariners are about to lose Eugenio Suárez to free agency. The Reds don’t have a definite answer at first base.

Over time, his market will become more clear. Whichever club signs him will also owe a posting fee to the Swallows. The posting fee is calculated as 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of spending above $50MM.

Photo courtesy of Sam Navarro, Imagn Images

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