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Fantasy Baseball Subscriber Chat With Nicklaus Gaut

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Nicklaus Gaut will be talking fantasy baseball with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers (one hour earlier than usual) today at 10 am Central time. Get your question in early or participate in the live event at the link below!

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MLB Mailbag: Cardinals, Orioles, Astros, Schwarber, Casas

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This week's mailbag covers the trade value of Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, and Nolan Arenado, the Orioles' need this winter, the Astros' infield logjam, Kyle Schwarber's Hall of Fame candidacy, and how the Red Sox might approach first base next year.

Sam asks:

Assuming Willson Contreras agrees to waive his NTC, what sort of return would the Cardinals receive? Same question for Sonny Gray too please. (Assuming that Arenado is not moved or that the Cardinals eat most of his contract in exchange for a PTBNL or similar from his limited list of teams)

Hugh asks:

Assuming Arenado and Gray waive NTCs, what are the chances Cardinals can move them? Would Arenado be a non-tender candidate?

It's difficult to just assume Contreras, Gray, or Arenado would waive their no-trade clauses, even for the sake or argument.  That's because those players would basically never entertain saying, "OK, I consent to a trade to any of the other 29 teams.  Go for it!"  They'd do something like what Arenado did last winter: provide a list of approved teams, and/or tell the GM you'll take it on a case-by-case basis if a deal is close.

I think these questions are more to get at what kind of trade value each player has, so let's assess that.

Contreras, 34 next May, became a full-time first baseman for the Cardinals this year.  Perhaps a new team would consider using him behind the plate here or there, especially if the automated ball-strike system is implemented, but we'll mostly consider him a first baseman/DH.

Contreras dealt with some minor injuries this year, but had avoided the IL until today.  His season has ended due to a right shoulder strain.  Contreras managed to post a solid 123 wRC+ in a career-high 563 plate appearances, good for 2.8 FanGraphs WAR in 135 games.

If we give Contreras some grace for having to adjust to his new defensive duties in April, it's worth noting that he had a 135 wRC+ since May.  This is a potential top-20 hitter in the game with plenty of red on his Statcast page who can arguably hang with the likes of Rafael Devers and Bryce Harper.  I don't think Contreras has that reputation, but that's what I see.  As a cherry on top, his first base defense appears to be average or better.

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MLBTR Podcast: The Struggling Mets, Bryce Eldridge, And Trey Yesavage

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Will the Astros trade Christian Walker in the offseason and move Isaac Paredes over to first base? (38:45)
  • Will the Braves make any shocking trades of their core this offseason? (47:40)
  • Will the Red Sox nab a postseason spot and can they make a deep postseason run? (55:00)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Benny Sieu, Imagn Images

MLB Abandons Plans For 2026 London Series

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Major League Baseball will no longer proceed with plans for the London Series in 2026, the league announced (link via Ronald Blum of The Associated Press). MLB had intended to play a two-game series between the Yankees and Blue Jays at London Stadium on June 13-14 next year. Those games are listed as a home series for the Blue Jays, so they’ll presumably take place back at the Rogers Centre.

The series will no longer occur because of a scheduling conflict. London Stadium is the home venue of West Ham United F.C., the city’s Premier League club. The Premier League runs through the final week of May. West Ham’s last home match is on May 24. MLB did not feel that left enough time to convert the venue to a baseball field. Fox, which was scheduled to carry the game, could not accommodate any delays because of its commitments to broadcasting World Cup matches later in the month.

MLB has scheduled a few games outside the United States and Canada as part of its World Tour initiative. It kicked off the London Series in 2019 with a two-game set between the Yankees and Red Sox. The following season’s games were canceled because of the pandemic. MLB scheduled series there in 2023 (Cubs vs. Cardinals) and ’24 (Mets vs. Phillies). This year’s only international series outside Canada was the season-opening two-game set between the Dodgers and Cubs at the Tokyo Dome in late March. The collective bargaining agreement permitted MLB to schedule games in San Juan, Paris, and Mexico City as well. However, the league decided not to pursue any of those plans for financial reasons.

It is expected there will still be one international series in 2026. The Padres and Diamondbacks have had reported discussions about playing in Mexico City early in the year. While MLB has not made an official announcement, the league scheduled a two-game set between those clubs on April 25 and 26 that comes with an off day on each side. That’s currently listed as a home series for the D-Backs but would apparently be played in Mexico if the details are finalized.

Sandy Alcantara Is Finding His Old Form

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The Marlins were expected to trade Sandy Alcantara at the deadline. The former Cy Young winner had returned from the Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2024 season. The hope was that he'd immediately recapture his ace form, demonstrate that over his first 18-20 starts, and be the prize of the summer rotation market.

Alcantara's return didn't go anywhere near that smoothly. His velocity was back, but he struggled to throw strikes or miss bats. He allowed over eight earned runs per nine innings in April and May. He showed flashes in June and July but remained up-and-down. Miami's deadline calculus became whether to sell low on their longtime ace -- a move that would've been more about cutting his $17MM salaries through 2026 than netting a huge prospect return. Given the organizational history, no one would've been surprised if they'd gone that route.

They instead decided to hold Alcantara and were only modest sellers overall. Miami dealt third catcher Nick Fortes to Tampa Bay and flipped platoon outfielder Jesús Sánchez to Houston for a three-player package. In addition to Alcantara, Edward Cabrera, Kyle Stowers, Anthony Bender and Calvin Faucher all stayed.

Miami was willing to cover what remained of Alcantara's 2025 salary to take a couple more months to get him on track. That has paid off. The 30-year-old righty has looked more like his old self. He's showing better control than he did in April and May. The improved efficiency has allowed him to work deeper into games. His stuff has gotten sharper as the season has progressed. That'll all be very encouraging as the Marlins field new trade offers in the offseason.

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Royals To Place Ryan Bergert On Injured List With Forearm Tightness

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Royals starter Ryan Bergert is headed to the 15-day injured list, manager Matt Quatraro told reporters (via Anne Rogers of MLB.com). The rookie right-hander reported forearm tightness during his standard bullpen session between starts. It’ll bring an early end to the 25-year-old’s debut season.

Michael Lorenzen, who tossed an inning in relief of Cole Ragans during tonight’s win over Seattle, will start on Friday against the Blue Jays. A series of rotation injuries sealed the Royals’ fate on the outside of the playoff picture. Ragans made his first start in more than three months. Seth Lugo has been out for three weeks with a back issue. An off-field concussion cost Michael Wacha a start. The Royals have dropped to 76-76 and figure to be officially eliminated from postseason contention by the end of the weekend.

As a result, they’ll play things cautiously with Bergert. Kansas City acquired him and Stephen Kolek from the Padres for backup catcher Freddy Fermin in an under-the-radar deadline deal. Bergert allowed one or two runs in each of his first six starts in a K.C. uniform. His final two outings were less impressive. The Guardians tagged him for eight runs in 3 1/3 frames on September 8, and he surrendered three runs in four innings in Philadelphia on Saturday.

It’s not the manner in which Bergert hoped to close the year. He had a promising season overall, turning in a 3.66 ERA while striking out 22.6% of batters faced over 76 1/3 innings. The West Virginia product has yet to reach a year of service time. Assuming he’s healthy, he’ll head into Spring Training with a shot at his first Opening Day roster. K.C. currently has a projected rotation of Ragans, Lugo, Wacha, Kris Bubic and Noah Cameron going into next season. Bergert, Kolek, Alec Marsh and Bailey Falter could compete alongside an offseason acquisition or two to be the top depth arm in the event of a Spring Training injury.

Rangers To Activate Tyler Mahle On Friday

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The Rangers will activate Tyler Mahle from the 60-day injured list for Friday’s series opener against the Marlins. He is listed as the probable starter against a yet to be announced pitcher for Miami. Texas has a full 40-man roster and will need to designate someone for assignment or transfer one of Marcus Semien, Nathan Eovaldi or Sam Haggerty to the 60-day injured list.

Mahle makes his return from a three-month shoulder injury. He landed on the injured list in the middle of June and was diagnosed with a rotator cuff strain a few weeks later. Mahle was shut down entirely for a few weeks and went over two months without getting into a game. He began a rehab assignment at Triple-A Round Rock in the beginning of September. He was bombed for five runs in an inning during his first appearance. He has since reeled off 6 1/3 scoreless frames with nine punchouts and three hits.

Texas will get a pair of starts from Mahle to finish the season. He’ll take on Miami and then one of Minnesota or Cleveland in the final week. It’s probably too late to make a difference in the playoff picture. The Rangers entered the week within a game and a half of a playoff spot. They had a chance to make up ground on the Astros, who were holding the last Wild Card position.

Houston instead ripped off a three-game sweep that probably drives the nail in the coffin. Texas has fallen 4.5 back of the Red Sox and Mariners (now tied for the AL’s last two Wild Card spots) with nine games to play. They’re two games behind the Guardians, who have the best chance to unseat one of the American League’s top six teams. The Rangers probably need to go at least 8-1 to have a shot at a playoff berth.

Mahle made 14 starts earlier in the season. He pitched to a 2.34 earned run average through 77 innings despite a modest 18.2% strikeout percentage. The 30-year-old righty has been injured for the majority of his two-year free agent deal. Texas knew Mahle would miss the first half of last season as he rehabbed from a May 2023 Tommy John procedure. He returned last August but only made it through three starts before being shut down for the year with shoulder discomfort.

Even if Mahle’s return doesn’t make a significant dent in the standings, he’ll welcome the opportunity to take on a pair of big league lineups before he heads back to free agency. He’ll be limited to one- or two-year offers again because of the durability questions. Mahle’s velocity has been down a tick in his Triple-A rehab work, though that’s probably attributable to his abbreviated ramp-up as he tried to get back on the mound for a playoff push.

On the minor league side, Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News writes that Kumar Rocker is scheduled to throw two innings for Round Rock tomorrow. The former third overall pick has not pitched in a Triple-A game since August 7. Texas instead has had him work on changing his release point outside of a game setting for the past six weeks. The Rangers are leaving the door open to recalling Rocker to the MLB roster before the end of the season. He opened the year in the rotation but was knocked around for a 5.74 ERA in a frustrating follow-up to last year’s promising return from Tommy John surgery.

Angels Outright Chad Wallach

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September 17: Wallach cleared waivers and has been outrighted back to Salt Lake, the Angels announced this afternoon.

September 15: The Angels announced a few roster moves during tonight’s off day. Logan O’Hoppe is back from the seven-day concussion list, leaving the club to designate catcher Chad Wallach for assignment. Los Angeles also announced that infielders Scott Kingery and Niko Kavadas cleared waivers and were outrighted to Triple-A. MLBTR covered the Kavadas outright this morning.

O’Hoppe went down a week ago when he was struck on the head by a Jacob Wilson backswing. The Halos called up Sebastian Rivero to back up Travis d’Arnaud, who stepped into the starting catching role. A few days later, d’Arnaud landed on the injured list with his own concussion symptoms. The Angels were forced to call up Wallach, the #4 backstop on the organizational depth chart. Rivero started all three games behind the dish in the weekend series in Seattle.

Wallach made one appearance as a defensive replacement. He caught the final two innings on Friday after Jo Adell pinch hit for Rivero in the top of the seventh. That was the 33-year-old’s first major league action since 2023. Wallach spent all of last year with the Halos’ Triple-A team in Salt Lake. He divided this season between the top affiliates of the Rangers and Angels, hitting .251/.321/.439 across 251 plate appearances.

The Angels will place Wallach on waivers this week. There’s a good chance he goes unclaimed and accepts a minor league assignment to spend the final two weeks of the regular season in Salt Lake. He’ll qualify for minor league free agency at year’s end if he’s not on a 40-man roster.

Kingery was designated for assignment on Saturday when the Angels called up Denzer Guzman. The former Phillies second baseman has cleared waivers three times this season. He hit .148 in 19 games during his first big league action in three years. He’ll also be a minor league free agent at year’s end unless the Angels call him back up before then.

Poll: Luis Robert Jr.’s Option

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While they won’t be breaking the major league record for losses this year like they did in 2024, it’s been another tough year for the White Sox. They’ve lost 95 games and could lose 100 games for the third year in a row. Emerging young players like Kyle Teel and Colson Montgomery have made this season a little easier for fans on the south side of Chicago to stomach, but there’s still little reason to expect the team to contend in 2026.

One of the most important offseason decisions for the White Sox has been whether to exercise a $20MM option on center fielder Luis Robert Jr. or pay him a $2MM buyout, though it seems they’ve generally already made up their mind. As soon as the Sox opted not to trade him at the deadline, it seemed likely Robert would be back in 2026 as opposed to bought out for no return. General manager Chris Getz has suggested as much on multiple occasions, and just this morning he told reporters that he expects Robert to be a part of the club next season (link via Vinnie Duber of the Chicago Sun-Times). The question, then, is less about what they will do and whether or not they’re right to do it.

With Robert all but confirmed to be done for the 2025 campaign due to a hamstring strain, his numbers appear locked in. After slashing .224/.278/.379 (84 wRC+) with 14 homers in 100 games last year, Robert produced a nearly identical .223/.297/.364 line (82 wRC+) and slugged 14 homers in 110 games in 2025. Between that apparent lack of progress and Robert’s continued injury woes, it might seem difficult to understand why the White Sox would stick with him rather than simply viewing him as a sunk cost.

Despite his eerily similar (and disappointing) numbers, however, digging a little deeper into Robert’s 2025 numbers actually reveals reason for optimism. He stole ten more bases this year than last, going 33-for-41 as opposed to 2024’s 23-for-29. Robert’s defense is also showing signs of a rebound, as he jumped from a Fielding Run Value of 0 in 2024 to a +7 figure this year, good for top 10 among center fielders in baseball this year.

More encouraging than either of those changes are the differences in his approach at the plate. While Robert’s overall slash line doesn’t look terribly different, he cut his strikeout rate from 33.2% in ’24 to a more manageable 26% in ’25. His 9.8% walk rate isn’t just an improvement over last year’s 6.6% mark — it’s a new career-high. Robert also did his best work this summer, rebounding from a slow start to hit .274/.335/.458 with nine homers, a 19.7% strikeout rate and a 7.6% walk rate over his final 198 plate appearances. That was 17% better than average, per wRC+.

As shown by Statcast, Robert’s bat speed dropped in 2024, but he’s rebounded to elite levels in 2025, ranking in the 92nd percentile of big leaguers. That could suggest there’s still some untapped power upside, but even if his days of crushing baseballs on a 30 to 40 homer pace are behind him, the combination of improved discipline, baserunning, and defense leave him in a solid position to be a three-to-four win player in the future if he can just stay healthy — though that is a colossal “if.”

It’s arguable that it’s worth an $18MM roll of the dice, particularly considering the fact that Cody Bellinger signed with the Cubs on a one-year, $17.5MM contract during the 2022-23 offseason after back-to-back down seasons with the Dodgers. Like Robert, Bellinger was coming off injury-marred seasons where he didn’t look like himself at the plate but had shown some signs of improvement in his final year in Los Angeles. Bellinger, of course, rewarded the north siders for their gamble with an All-Star campaign in 2023 and has posted a 123 wRC+ with 10.9 fWAR over the past three seasons.

On the other hand, locking Robert in for another year comes with glaringly obvious risk. With the White Sox unlikely to contend in 2026, on-field production will only benefit the team if it can then be converted into trade capital. The White Sox have had a lot of difficulty getting what they perceive to be fair value for Robert over the years, and even if he has a big first half in 2026, teams might be scared away by his uncertain history.

Furthermore, Robert’s 110 games played in 2025 are actually the second-most of his entire career. He’s never played even 150 games in a season. One first-half injury could leave Robert with little trade value next year, and force the White Sox into another situation a lot like the one they find themselves in this year as they stare down another $20MM option for the 2027 campaign.

What do MLBTR readers think the White Sox should be doing about Robert? Should they pick up his option and bet on better days in the future, or would they be better off sending him on his way and using that $18MM in savings elsewhere? Have your say in the poll below:

Lucas Giolito Converts Club Option To Mutual Provision

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Lucas Giolito completed four innings against the Athletics tonight. That pushes him beyond 140 frames on the season, clinching a contractual milestone that’ll have an impact on the upcoming free agent class. Giolito has hit the vesting threshold needed to convert the Red Sox’s $14MM club option into a $19MM mutual option. That means he’ll be able to opt out in favor of a $1.5MM buyout and return to the open market in search of a multi-year deal.

Giolito is sure to go that route unless he suffers a major injury within the next few weeks. The 31-year-old righty is amidst his best season since he received down-ballot Cy Young votes each year between 2019-21. He has rebounded nicely from the elbow surgery that robbed him of his first year in Boston. Giolito returned this season on a $19MM player option. A Spring Training hamstring strain forced him to wait a few weeks to make his team debut, but he has been one of Boston’s most reliable starters behind Garrett Crochet over the past few months.

The righty’s first few starts were a little rocky. Giolito pitched to a 4.85 ERA across five appearances in May. He has performed well since then. Giolito has not allowed more than 3.41 earned runs per nine innings in any of the past four months. He carries a 2.86 ERA while averaging almost six innings per start in 18 appearances since the beginning of June. That doesn’t include tonight’s start, in which walks and a handful of inherited runners coming across the board left him with four earned runs through 4 2/3 innings.

All told, Giolito took a 3.30 ERA into today’s appearance. His 20% strikeout rate and 10% swinging strike mark are both a little below average. Giolito isn’t missing bats at the plus rates that he did during his early run with the White Sox, but he’s throwing strikes and working relatively deep into games. He has picked up 14 quality starts while tamping down on the home run issues that plagued him late in his time with Chicago (and during his brief stops with the Angels and Guardians in 2023).

Giolito is going into his age-31 season. He’s coming off a platform year that is arguably better than the one Luis Severino turned in for the Mets a year ago. Severino landed three years and $67MM with an opt-out after the second season. One could write that off as an anomaly by an A’s team that wanted to avoid a revenue sharing grievance and needed to overpay in the midst of a relocation. Even so, Giolito’s numbers stack up to those of Eduardo Rodriguez (four years, $80MM at age 31) and Michael Wacha (three years, $51MM at age 33) in their respective walk years.

Time will tell what kind of deal the market will bear for Giolito. His camp will probably take aim at four years. Even if that doesn’t materialize because of concerns about the dip in strikeouts or the home run issues he batted in previous seasons, he’ll easily beat the $17.5MM net call he faces in declining his end of the mutual option. That’s close to what rebound candidates like Walker Buehler, Alex Cobb and late-career Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander received last winter.

Boston can and almost certainly will tag Giolito with a qualifying offer, which would be in the $22MM range. In the likely event that Giolito declines, that’d entitle them to draft compensation. RosterResource estimates the Red Sox are narrowly above the $241MM luxury tax threshold. Assuming that’s the case, they’d receive a pick after the fourth round in 2026 if Giolito declines the QO and signs with another team.

Image courtesy of James A. Pittman, Imagn Images.

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