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The Opener: Mets, Injuries, Managerial Searches

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As the wait for the World Series to begin, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Mets end-of-season press conference:

On the heels of the club being eliminated from the postseason at the hands of the Dodgers, the Mets are now set to shift their attention toward the coming offseason. Part of that process is the club’s end-of-season press conference, which Mike Puma of the New York Post notes will be conducted at Citi Field later today by president of baseball operations David Stearns. Overall, it was quite the successful year for a Mets club that won 89 games and made it to their first NLCS since 2015 despite relatively low expectations regarding the club’s competitiveness just one year after they traded off key pieces like Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.

Stearns and the rest of the front office face a new challenge this winter, however. Not only is first baseman Pete Alonso scheduled to become a free agent, but the impending departures of Jose Quintana, Sean Manaea, and Luis Severino mean that the Mets will need to rebuild their rotation nearly from scratch this offseason. Beyond that, speculation has run rampant over the past year that the Mets will be involved in the Juan Soto market, presumably creating a bidding war between the two New York teams as the incumbent Yankees try to retain their young star.

2. Are more injury announcements coming down the pipe?

The lull between the end of the NLCS on Sunday and the start of the World Series this coming Friday has created space for teams to make announcements that otherwise may have conflicted with the postseason, and among the most noteworthy have been a handful of injury updates. So far this week, we’ve received word that Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner underwent forearm surgery and Mets right-hander Paul Blackburn underwent a spinal procedure earlier this month. Those major injury announcements that could impact the players’ timelines for Spring Training aside, the Padres also discussed shortstop Ha-Seong Kim’s recent shoulder surgery ahead of his free agency and indicated he might take longer to return to action than initially believed. Could any more injury announcements or updates crop up over the next few days?

3. Managerial searches continue:

Details surrounding the managerial searches for the White Sox and Marlins have been fairly sparse to this point, though a few names of potential candidates have been rumored for the vacancy in Miami. There have been more rumors surrounding Chicago’s search, with exiting Marlins manager Skip Schumaker joining a list of names that also includes Lombard, Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough and Rangers associate manager Will Venable. Whoever the two clubs ultimately hire to steer their fifth-place teams in 2025 will face plenty of potential challenges; in addition to the abysmal record of both clubs, the Marlins’ new manager will be tasked with overhauling their entire coaching staff, while the new White Sox manager will join the team amid rumors of a potential sale.

Fernando Valenzuela Passes Away

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Fernando Valenzuela passed away on Tuesday evening, a little more than a week shy of his 64th birthday. Major League Baseball will honor his memory with the World Series beginning at Dodger Stadium this weekend.

“On behalf of the Dodger organization, we profoundly mourn the passing of Fernando,” team president and CEO Stan Kasten said in a statement. “He is one of the most influential Dodgers ever and belongs on the Mount Rushmore of franchise heroes. He galvanized the fan base with the Fernandomania season of 1981 and has remained close to our hearts ever since, not only as a player but also as a broadcaster. He has left us all too soon. Our deepest condolences go out to his wife Linda and his family.”

Commissioner Rob Manfred released a statement of his own. “Fernando Valenzuela was one of the most impactful players of his generation. With his distinctive pitching style, the Dodger left-hander’s rookie season generated so much excitement in the U.S. and his native Mexico that it became commonly referred to as ‘Fernandomania.’ His 1981 season ranks among the most decorated pitching years of all-time as Fernando was the National League Rookie of the Year, the NL Cy Young Award winner, a Silver Slugger, and a World Series Champion.”

As both Kasten and Manfred referenced, Valenzuela was best known for his electric rookie season. The Mexican-born hurler signed with the Dodgers in 1979. While he was just 18 at the time, it didn’t take long before he pitched his way to Dodger Stadium. Valenzuela made all of 30 appearances in the minor leagues before making his MLB debut as a September call-up in 1980. Pitching out of the bullpen, the 19-year-old fired 17 2/3 innings without allowing an earned run to close the season. It was a preview of the phenomenon to come.

The Dodgers tabbed Valenzuela as their Opening Day starter in 1981 after Jerry Reuss suffered an injury. Valenzuela tossed a five-hit shutout against the Astros in his first career start. He followed up with a 10-strikeout complete game in a 7-1 victory over the Giants. He’d rattle off three straight shutouts thereafter, recording two more double-digit strikeout performances in the process. He closed out April with a 5-0 record and one run allowed in 45 innings.

Valenzuela’s shutout streak was snapped when he “merely” threw a one-run complete game win over the Expos during his first appearance of May. He blanked the Mets with 11 strikeouts in his next appearance, then tossed another complete game win (this time with two earned runs) against Montreal. Valenzuela completed and won each of his first eight big league starts while running a cumulative 0.50 earned run average — all at age 20.

That sheer dominance, which came on the back of a wiffle ball-style screwball, was only a part of Valenzuela’s immense popularity. A young Mexican pitcher performing at an historic level in Southern California made him an icon among Latin American fans, in particular. Valenzuela’s rookie year quickly became the stuff of legend, and the “Fernandomania” moniker that it took on remains a key chapter in MLB history more than four decades later. It was a captivating performance the likes of which will probably never be seen again with teams keeping a much closer eye on young pitchers’ workloads.

Of course, Valenzuela’s career stretched well beyond those magical two months. His rookie year was interrupted by the player’s strike that stopped play between the middle of June and the second week of August. The Dodgers, who were 36-21 at the time of the work stoppage, were declared the first-half winners of the NL West title. They knocked off the second-half NL West champion Astros in a hastily implemented Division Series — the Wild Card wouldn’t be introduced until more than a decade later — before toppling Montreal in the NLCS.

That set up a World Series showdown with the Yankees. Los Angeles defeated New York in what had been the most recent Fall Classic matchup between the behemoths. Valenzuela got the win with a four-run complete game in Game 3, the first of four straight victories for the Dodgers after they dropped the first two in the Bronx.

It was an ideal ending to one of the greatest rookie seasons the game has ever seen. Valenzuela turned in a 2.48 ERA across an NL-leading 192 1/3 innings. His eight shutouts and 180 strikeouts both led all major league pitchers. He topped future Hall of Famer Tim Raines for Rookie of the Year and edged out two more legends — Tom Seaver and Steve Carlton — to win the Cy Young. He finished fifth in MVP balloting and picked up a Silver Slugger for good measure. Valenzuela tossed 40 2/3 innings of 2.21 ERA ball over his five postseason starts.

The rookie season was so exceptional that it necessarily represented the peak of his career. Yet that in no way diminishes what he achieved throughout the 1980s. The southpaw remained a force atop the L.A. rotation for most of the decade. Valenzuela made the All-Star team in each of his first six full seasons. He topped 250 innings every year between 1982-87.

He fired 285 innings of 2.87 ERA ball in his second year, tying for third in Cy Young balloting in the process. He’d earn two more top-five finishes in the middle of the decade — including a runner-up placement behind Mike Scott during an ’86 season in which he struck out 242 hitters and led the Senior Circuit with 21 wins. The Dodgers made the postseason in 1983 and ’85, losing in the NLCS both times. They returned to the World Series in 1988 and defeated the A’s in five games. Valenzuela missed that series due to injury but collected a second ring after throwing 142 1/3 regular season innings.

Valenzuela remained with the Dodgers for another few seasons, but his production waned. The Dodgers moved on after he allowed an NL-most 104 earned runs in 1990. It wasn’t a good year overall, though Valenzuela had his final highlight in a Dodger uniform when he no-hit the Cardinals that June. He bounced around between the Mexican League and MLB for another few seasons, most notably spending three years with the Padres. He made one final trip to the postseason with San Diego in 1996 and finished his MLB playing career the following season. Valenzuela made a brief return to the mound in his home country in the mid-2000s.

All told, he pitched in parts of 17 MLB seasons. Valenzuela suited up for six teams, though he’ll obviously be remembered most for his time in Dodger blue. He finished his career with a 3.54 ERA in nearly 3000 innings. He won 173 games, struck out more than 2000 hitters, and tossed 113 complete games (31 of which were shutouts). His rate stats, while still impressive, are diminished somewhat by his late-career struggles. During his 1981-86 peak, he turned in a 2.97 ERA with 1258 strikeouts and 84 complete games in exactly 200 regular season starts. He was also a solid hitter for a pitcher, running a career .200 average with 10 home runs while winning a pair of Silver Sluggers.

Valenzuela’s peak might have been Hall of Fame worthy, but he didn’t maintain it long enough to garner serious consideration from the BBWAA. He fell off the ballot in his second year of eligibility in 2004. Valenzuela was inducted into the Dodgers’ Ring of Honor. The franchise officially retired his #34 last year. He remained a key figure in the organization as a Spanish-language broadcaster through this season.

The news will cast a shadow over the upcoming World Series, though the Dodgers’ presence provides an opportunity for the organization to honor Valenzuela’s legacy on the biggest stage. MLBTR sends our condolences to his family, friends, former teammates and the countless fans whose lives he impacted.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Six Players Elect Free Agency

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As the offseason nears, a number of players elect minor league free agency each week. These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. These transactions are all reflected on the MiLB.com or MLB.com logs.

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

We looked at the candidates for a qualifying offer on the position player side yesterday. Today, it’s a look at the pitchers, where there are a couple borderline calls.

No-Doubters

These are the easiest QO decisions in the pitching class. Burnes and Fried are two of the three best pitchers available. (Blake Snell is ineligible.) They’ll reject the QO just as easily as their teams make the offer. Burnes will set his sights on a $200MM+ deal, while Fried should land five or six years well into nine figures.

As a revenue sharing recipient, Baltimore will get the top compensation if Burnes signs elsewhere for more than $50MM: a pick after the first round in next summer’s draft. Atlanta exceeded the luxury tax threshold, so they’ll receive minimal compensation. The Braves would get a selection after the fourth round if Fried departs.

Likely

Manaea will hit free agency once he makes the easy call to decline his $13.5MM player option. The southpaw ran with a full rotation opportunity in Queens after spending most of the ’23 season working in multi-inning relief with San Francisco. Manaea took all 32 turns and logged 181 2/3 innings of 3.47 ERA ball. He fanned a quarter of his opponents against an 8.5% walk rate while running a solid 11.7% swinging strike percentage. Manaea was dominant down the stretch, working to a 3.16 ERA while holding opponents to a .182/.251/.327 slash after July 1.

The veteran left-hander turns 33 in February. He should be in line for at least a three-year deal. Four is a real possibility. It’s hard to see Manaea accepting a QO. If he did, the Mets would probably be happy to have him back for just over $21MM (although it’d be a $44MM+ commitment after luxury taxes). This isn’t quite a lock to the same extent as the Burnes and Fried calls, but it’d be surprising if the Mets didn’t make the offer.

Borderline Calls

Severino is a trickier call for New York. He signed a one-year, $13MM pillow contract last offseason. Like Manaea, he stayed healthy and provided 30+ starts of mid-rotation production. Severino worked to a 3.91 earned run average through 182 innings. He was markedly better than he’d been during his final season with the Yankees. Still, it wasn’t a return to the form he’d shown early in his career in the Bronx.

The 30-year-old righty struck out a league average 21.2% of opposing hitters. He kept the ball on the ground at a solid 46% clip while walking just under 8% of batters faced. Those are all decent but not outstanding peripherals. Severino continued to struggle to miss bats on a per-pitch basis. His 9.4% swinging strike rate ranked 91st out of 126 pitchers with 100+ innings. Severino still has plus velocity, but his production is more in line with that of a third or fourth starter than a top-of-the-rotation force.

New York could be fine with that. If the Mets expect him to repeat this year’s production, $21.05MM is a decent investment. It’d again be $44MM+ after taxes, but Steve Cohen hasn’t shied away from huge CBT bills. Severino could be the player whose market value is most affected by whether he receives the QO. There are parallels to where Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker stood as free agents. Neither of those pitchers got a qualifying offer; they each landed four-year deals in the $70MM range. That kind of contract would be a tougher sell if a team is also giving up a draft pick.

The Mets would only get a post-fourth round pick as compensation if Severino declines the QO and walks. That’s not much. It’d be a prospect who might sneak into their organizational top 30. The offer is only worthwhile if the Mets would be happy to have Severino back at that price point. We’ll see in a few weeks how highly they value him.

Wacha’s two-year, $32MM free agent deal allows him to opt out after this season. The veteran righty should retest the market after a strong year in Kansas City. He turned in a 3.35 ERA across 166 2/3 innings. Wacha missed a bit of time in June with a small fracture in his left foot, but he was otherwise durable. It’s the second-highest inning total of his career and his third straight season allowing fewer than 3.50 earned runs per nine.

It’s not the flashiest profile. Wacha’s swing-and-miss and grounder rates are just alright. He has plus control and generally does a strong job avoiding hard contact. He’s not going to be valued as an ace, but he continues to churn out quality results despite playing on his sixth team in as many years.

An offer just north of $21MM might feel rich for Kansas City, but it’s not that much higher than the $16MM salary which they paid Wacha this past season. The Royals got what they wanted in year one, as Wacha joined Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo as a rotation nucleus that helped push them to a surprise trip to the AL Division Series.

This is a situation where the player accepting a qualifying offer might work out well for everyone involved. It’d give Wacha a $5MM+ raise and allow him to spend multiple seasons with a team for the first time since he left the Cardinals in 2019. Kansas City could keep their rotation intact. If the Royals don’t make the QO, Wacha has a shot at three years and a guarantee above $40MM going into his age-33 campaign. That’d be less likely if he’s attached to draft compensation.

Long Shots

Bieber could’ve been a QO candidate had he been healthy. He blew out after two fantastic starts and underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Bieber could return in the first half of next season, but he’d probably accept a qualifying offer. That’s likely too risky for Cleveland, though they could try to bring him back on an incentive-laden deal that allows him to approach $20MM if he stays healthy.

Hoffman is one of the best relievers in the class. He has had a dominant two-year run with Philadelphia, working to a 2.28 ERA in 118 2/3 innings. There’s no precedent for teams making a qualifying offer to non-closing relievers, though. The rare reliever QO has generally gone to pitchers with longer track records than Hoffman possesses and at least one full season of closing experience (i.e. Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias, Will Smith, Greg Holland, Wade Davis, Kenley Jansen).

Martinez is going to decline a $12MM player option with Cincinnati. If he doesn’t get the QO, he’ll get another multi-year deal that could push beyond $30MM. Martinez had a third consecutive strong season, turning in a 3.10 ERA over 142 1/3 innings while working in a swing role. He started 16 of 42 appearances. If the Reds were committed to giving Martinez a rotation spot, there’d be an argument for the offer. A salary north of $21MM is a hefty sum for a player who has never really held a full-time starting job in MLB, though. The Reds spent around $100MM on player payroll this year. If they stay in that range, a Martinez QO would risk tying up more than 20% of their budget.

Pivetta has been durable and routinely posts plus strikeout and walk rates. He throws hard, misses bats and fares well in the eyes of ERA estimators that place a heavy emphasis on a pitcher’s K/BB profile. Nevertheless, he’s never had a season with a sub-4.00 earned run average. Pivetta gives up a bunch of hard contact and always allows more home runs than the average pitcher. He’s a solid innings eater, but the Sox have had four-plus seasons to try to unlock another gear and haven’t been able to do so. He’d likely accept the QO if offered. Boston probably prefers to keep that money in reserve and look for a clearer top-of-the-rotation arm.

Ineligible

Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. Eovaldi, Scherzer and Snell each have a previous QO. Snell and Eovaldi would’ve been easy calls if they could’ve received them.

The midseason trade took the QO off the table for Flaherty, Kikuchi and Scott. The latter wouldn’t have gotten one from the Marlins in either case, but he’s the top reliever in the class. Flaherty would’ve been a lock for the QO if the Tigers hadn’t traded him at the deadline. Getting moved to the Dodgers gives him a chance to pitch in the World Series and took draft compensation off the table for his return trip to free agency. Kikuchi dominated after a deadline deal to the Astros and could command something like the QO salary on a three-year deal covering his ages 34-36 seasons.

Guardians Notes: Fry, Free Agents, Coaching Staff

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The Guardians had a strong season in 2024 but came up just shy of the ultimate goal, falling to the Yankees in the ALCS. They now head into offseason mode with some questions to be answered. Zack Meisel of The Athletic relayed a few interesting notes on X today, arguably with the most notable detail being that David Fry is going to see Dr. Keith Meister about his injured elbow. On top of that, Meisel also says that the entire coaching staff will be back unless someone gets a promotion with another club, and that the Guards have some degree of mutual interest in reunions with free agents Shane Bieber, Alex Cobb, Matthew Boyd and Austin Hedges.

Fry had a strong season in 2024, hitting 14 home runs in just 392 plate appearances and drawing walks at a 10.7% clip. That led to a .263/.356/.448 batting line and 129 wRC+. Most of that damage came against left-handed pitching, as the righty hitter had a massive 18.2% walk rate with the platoon advantage but just 5.3% without it, while nine of his 14 long balls were against southpaws. That created lopsided platoon splits with Fry slashing .287/.430/.566 against lefties for a 179 wRC+, while those numbers were .248/.302/.374 and a 94 wRC+ against righties.

While Fry was limited by those splits this year, he was also limited in another way. He is capable of playing various spots on the diamond, with some past experience at catcher and in the four corner spots. But in late June, he was diagnosed with right elbow inflammation, as Meisel relayed on X at that time. In the latter half of the season, he mostly served as a designated hitter or pinch hitter, only rarely taking the field. He didn’t play a position other than first base after the month of July.

This left manager Stephen Vogt a little bit hamstrung down the stretch and into the postseason, as he couldn’t but Fry behind the plate. That left the Guards with a catching tandem of Bo Naylor and Hedges. Naylor had a strong year defensively but didn’t hit much. As for Hedges, he’s been on the extreme edge of that profile for a long time, having spent a decade in the big leagues as one of the worst hitters but one of the best backstops when the gear is on.

Fry’s elbow issue was manageable enough that he could hit through it, but it seems he might do a deeper dive now that the season is done. Meister is an elbow specialist who has performed dozens of Tommy John surgeries and internal brace procedures. The fact that Fry is going to see him doesn’t mean that surgery is inevitable, as it will obviously depend on the condition of his elbow, but the meeting is notable nonetheless.

If surgery is required, he’d naturally be in line for a lengthy rehab. Position players can generally return from major elbow surgeries a bit quicker than pitchers, with hitting a possibility before throwing. Bryce Harper was one extreme example, undergoing Tommy John surgery in November of 2022 and then being reinstated in May of 2023, less than six months later. Harper served as a DH for a while and then started playing some first base in July.

Of course, each case is unique and it’s not even a guarantee that going under the knife will be necessary, but that provides a rough guideline of something that could be considered. However, if such a scenario does come to pass, then it makes sense that Guardians would have some interest in bringing back Hedges.

As mentioned, Hedges is an extreme case of a glove-first backstop, which he showed again in 2024 by putting up a line of .152/.203/.220 in his 146 plate appearances. His wRC+ of 20 was the worst in the majors among guys with that many trips to the plate, except for Martín Maldonado’s 11 wRC+ in 147 plate appearances.

But Hedges has consistently been atop defensive leaderboards for catchers. He has 91 Defensive Runs Saved from 2015 to the present, easily the most in baseball with Roberto Pérez second with 75. He’s also tops in terms of Statcast Fielding Run Value for that stretch and second only to Yasmani Grandal in terms of FanGraphs’ framing metric. If Fry is set to miss some time next year, it would make sense to have Hedges come back and share the catching duties with Naylor, at least until Fry is once again an option behind the plate. Hedges signed for $4MM coming into this year and is likely in line for a pay cut, as his hitting in 2024 was below even his own low standards.

As for the other free agents, it’s understandable that Cleveland would be interested in bringing them back as they are all starting pitchers. The Guardians have long been known for their ability to grow rotation options on trees but struggled in that department in 2024. Bieber required Tommy John surgery while pitchers like Triston McKenzie, Carlos Carrasco, Logan Allen and others struggled to post decent results.

That led to the club in the unusual position of having to find midseason additions. They signed Boyd, who was recovering from Tommy John surgery, to a major league deal in June. He was still on the injured list at the trade deadline when they acquired Cobb and added him into the mix.

Both of those two and Bieber are now heading into free agency. The Cleveland rotation for 2025 projects to be fronted by Tanner Bibee with plenty of question marks after that. Ben Lively posted a 3.81 earned run average in 2024 but that was despite a low strikeout rate of 18.7%. He may have been helped by a .265 batting average on balls in play and 78.4% strand rate, which were both on the fortunate side. His 4.66 FIP and 4.58 SIERA suggest he may have difficulty repeating that ERA. Gavin Williams is a bit of the inverse, as he had a 4.86 ERA in 2024 but with a low 66.9% strand rate, leading to a 3.67 FIP and 4.19 SIERA.

Beyond those three, it gets real murky. Joey Cantillo had a 4.89 ERA in his first major league action but did so with a 9.2% walk rate around league average. Since he’s walked 13.4% of minor leagues faced since the start of 2021 and was at 15% on the farm in 2024, it might not be wise to expect him to keep up that level of control. McKenzie and Allen had ERAs above 5.00 both in the majors and minors this year.

In short, bringing in starting pitching is a logical plan for this offseason. Mutual interest between the pitchers and the club is nice but a fair price will likely be required in each case. Boyd has been injured a lot in recent years but is going into free agency on a high note. He posted a 2.72 ERA with the Guards down the stretch, along with a 27.7% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate, then had a 0.77 ERA in his three playoff outings. He could perhaps parlay that strong finish into a solid two-year deal in free agency and will likely be looking to maximize his guarantee after so many injury absences in his career.

Bieber and Cobb will have less momentum in terms of their earning power. As mentioned, Bieber had Tommy John surgery early in the 2024 season and will be slated to miss at least the early parts of the 2025 season. Pitchers recovering from Tommy John sometimes sign two-year deals, but those guys are usually on a path to miss most or all of the first season in those cases. Since Bieber went under the knife in April, he could perhaps play a significant role in 2025 and might try to return to the open market a year from now, either by signing a one-year deal or a two-year pact with an opt-out.

Cobb is coming off an injury-marred season that saw him throw just 22 innings between the regular season and playoffs. He came into 2024 recovering from hip surgery and eventually battled through shoulder discomfort as well as fingernail/blister issues on his pitching hand before his season was ended by a lower back strain. Now 37 years old and coming off that year, he’ll have to settle for a fairly modest deal, perhaps heavy with incentives.

RosterResource projects the Guardians for a $95MM payroll in 2025, which is less than $10MM shy of their 2024 number. That might not leave them a lot to work with this winter unless they’re planning on a notable spending increase. With the club’s broadcast deal with Diamond Sports Group now done and MLB taking over in that department, they may have less TV money coming and may not have much appetite for a big bump in the budget.

However, Josh Naylor and Lane Thomas are each slated for notable salaries in their respective final seasons of club control. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Naylor for $12MM and Thomas for $8.3MM. The Guardians often trade notable players before they reach free agency, with Francisco Lindor, Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer being some recent examples. Perhaps they would consider the same with Naylor and/or Thomas as a way of freeing up money while also perhaps bolstering the rotation that way. Any free agent pursuits might also hinge on how that market plays out for them.

Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

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The Twins enraged fans by slashing roughly $30MM of payroll after finally breaking their postseason losing streak last year, only to eventually endure one of the worst collapses of any team in recent history. As fans reeled from seeing a club that was a 95% playoff favorite late in the year somehow miss the postseason entirely, ownership announced its intent to explore a sale of the team. It's going to be quite the offseason in Minnesota.

Guaranteed Contracts

Guaranteed salary for the 2025 season: $93MM
Total long-term guaranteed money: $274MM

Option Decisions

  • Manuel Margot, OF: $12MM mutual option with $2MM buyout (Rays responsible for buyout)
  • Kyle Farmer, INF: $6.25MM mutual option with $250K buyout
  • Jorge Alcala, RHP: $1.5MM club option with $55K buyout (would remain arb-eligible if declined)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

It's been less than two years since the Twins installed Joe Pohlad as their executive chair and control person of the club. The grandson of Carl Pohlad, who purchased the club in 1984, and nephew of his successor Jim Pohlad, Joe took over control of the club not long after turning 40 years old. His first offseason instilled hope of a changing tide in Minnesota. The Twins handed out a franchise-record $200MM contract to keep Carlos Correa in Minnesota. By 2023, they trotted out a club-record payroll approaching $160MM and, for the first time since 2002, won a playoff series.

The good vibes didn't last. As soon as last offseason began, talk of reducing payroll amid uncertainty surrounding the team's television deal emerged. The Twins were one of several teams impacted, but few clubs pulled back spending to the extent of Minnesota. Payroll was slashed by about $30MM -- roughly 20% of the team's total spending the year prior -- leaving the front office to operate on the margins and bring in a series of budget-driven, short-term pickups to address a sweeping slate of needs, most notably the departure of 2023 AL Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray.

Nearly all of the bargain pickups the Twins put together fell short. Carlos Santana proved a successful move, hitting .238/.328/.420 with 23 homers and Gold Glove-caliber defense at first base. The others flopped.

Free agent relievers Jay Jackson and Josh Staumont struggled and were released midseason. Anthony DeSclafani, who'd missed most of '23 with injury, had season-ending surgery before the season began. Justin Topa, acquired alongside DeSclafani in the trade sending Jorge Polanco to the Mariners, missed almost all season with a knee injury suffered in spring training. Steven Okert, acquired for Nick Gordon, was dropped from the 40-man roster in August. The Twins got a couple prospects of note in that Polanco trade (Gabriel Gonzalez, Darren Bowen), so maybe it'll pan out in the long run, but insofar as the 2024 campaign is concerned, every addition fell short.

Despite those offseason whiffs, the Twins were in contention for much of the season. A good portion of that was spent chasing an upstart Guardians club, but for most of the summer the Twins were given overwhelming odds to reach the postseason. Even on Sept. 5, FanGraphs gave them a 95.4% chance of reaching the playoffs. The Twins faceplanted as the Tigers surged past them. Joe Pohlad opened the offseason by sidestepping payroll questions but pledging to put a better product on the field (X link via Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic).

Within the next two weeks, major changes had seized headlines in Minnesota. The Twins saw general manager Thad Levine -- No. 2 on their baseball operations hierarchy behind president Derek Falvey -- step down and leave the club. Days later, the Twins sent a press release announcing the Pohlad family's intent to explore a sale of the team.

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Cardinals Hire Brant Brown As Hitting Coach, Robert Cerfolio As Assistant General Manager

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The Cardinals announced that they have hired Brant Brown as their new hitting coach. They also announced the hiring of Jon Jay and a new role for Willie McGee, both of which were reported yesterday. Additionally, they announced  that Robert Cerfolio has been hired as assistant general manager, player development and performance. Cerfolio was previously with the Guardians as director of player development. Katie Woo of The Athletic reported on Cerfolio’s hiring earlier today while John Denton of MLB.com identified Brown on X as a leading candidate for the hitting coach job prior to the official announcement.

It’s been well-known for a while now that 2025 is going to be a transitional year for the Cards. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak is going to be giving his job to Chaim Bloom after the upcoming season, with the next year or so serving as a slower-than-usual passing of the torch. The franchise is presumably hoping that this will be a smoother transition than the traditional route of an abrupt firing and/or resignation followed by a hasty search for a replacement.

The club is planning to have a lower payroll and a larger focus on its player development pipeline, so plenty of changes are sure to come throughout the various facets of the club. One of those changes will be the addition of Cerfolio. As noted by Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat on X, Cerfolio is a Yalie, like Bloom, chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. and president Bill DeWitt III.

But his hiring surely goes beyond just his alma mater. As noted by Woo, Cerfolio was hired by the Guardians in 2015, an organization that is known for having a strong player development pipeline that has allowed it to succeed despite consistently low payrolls. That was something the Cardinals were known for earlier this century, though that reputation has faded recently. A clearly stated goal of this current pivot for the Cardinals is to get back to being that type of organization.

As Mozeliak handles the day-to-day operations of the Cards for the next year and Bloom focuses on that player development apparatus, he has brought Cerfolio aboard to help modernize things for the club. Woo says Bloom is expected to make dozens of hires as part of this process, so Cerfolio is just one piece of the puzzle.

Turning to the coaching staff, it was reported earlier this month that hitting coach Turner Ward would not have his contract renewed for 2025, creating a vacancy that Brown is now filling. Now 53, Brown played in the majors from 1996 to 2000. He then pivoted to coaching, starting with gigs in the minors. He was hired by the Dodgers going into 2018 and was on that club’s staff through 2022, first as assistant hitting coach and then as hitting strategist.

He spent 2023 as the hitting coach of the Marlins then jumped to the Mariners prior to the 2024 season, getting the title of offensive coordinator in Seattle. However, at the end of May 2024, the M’s parted ways with Brown even though he had only been hired in December. Offensive struggles were a key part of the narrative for the Mariners in 2024 and director of hitting strategy Jarret DeHart, who had taken on a larger role when Brown was fired, was also dismissed in August.

It’s always difficult to separate player performance from the contributions of a coach. While the Mariners struggled under Brown’s brief tenure, they also had notable problems the year prior, making it fair to ask if any coach could have made a meaningful difference with the way the roster was constructed. For what it’s worth, the Dodgers performed well during Brown’s time there while his one season in Miami was their only full-season playoff berth in the past 20 years. The club had a subpar 92 wRC+ in 2023 but that was still a bump relative to their 83 in 2022 and 86 in 2024.

Time will tell what kind of club the Cardinals will field in 2025, but it’s generally expected that their planned retooling period could lead to some trades of veterans that aren’t likely to be part of the next competitive window. If that comes to pass, Brown could be tasked with guiding a relatively young roster consisting of players looking to take steps forward at the major league level.

2024 Rawlings Gold Glove Award® FINALISTS! (Sponsored)

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This is a sponsored post from Rawlings.

In case you missed it last week, Rawlings Sporting Goods Company, Inc., announced the finalists for the 2024 Rawlings Gold Glove Award®, honoring the best individual fielding performances at each position in the American League® and National League®.

The winners will be unveiled during a one-hour, special-edition “Baseball Tonight” broadcast on ESPN Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024, at 8:30 p.m. ET.

Background:

While the award originated in 1957, Rawlings first began highlighting the top-three defenders at each position as finalists in 2011. This season, the Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals lead the AL with four finalists each, and the Arizona Diamondbacks top the NL with five finalists.

“The announcement of the Rawlings Gold Glove Award finalists each year creates so much excitement for our brand and the sport of baseball, not to mention for the talented athletes that are selected as the top defenders at their respective positions,” said Mike Thompson, chief marketing officer of Rawlings. “We look forward to recognizing the winners of the highly coveted Rawlings Gold Glove Awards in a few weeks, but until then, we’ll enjoy the banter amongst fans as to who is most deserving at each position.”

 

How Finalists Are Selected:

To determine the winners of the 18 defensive position Awards, each team’s manager and up to six coaches on his staff vote from a pool of qualified players in their League and cannot vote for players from their own team. In 2013, Rawlings added the SABR Defensive Index™ (SDI) to the Rawlings Gold Glove Award selection process, which comprises approximately 25 percent of the overall selection total, with the managers’ and coaches’ votes continuing to carry the majority.

To identify the utility Award winners, Rawlings collaborated with SABR to create a specialized defensive formula separate from the traditional selection process for the Rawlings Gold Glove Award position winners. Utilizing the SABR formula and additional defensive statistics, Rawlings will select one utility winner from each League.

2024 Rawlings Gold Glove Award Finalists – American League

Pitcher

  • Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals
  • Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals
  • Griffin Canning, Los Angeles Angels

Catcher

  • Freddy Fermin, Kansas City Royals
  • Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners
  • Jake Rogers, Detroit Tigers

First Base

  • Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles
  • Nathaniel Lowe, Texas Rangers
  • Carlos Santana, Minnesota Twins

Second Base

  • Nicky Lopez, Chicago White Sox
  • Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers
  • Andrés Giménez, Cleveland Guardians

Third Base

  • Ernie Clement, Toronto Blue Jays
  • José Ramírez, Cleveland Guardians
  • Alex Bregman, Houston Astros

Shortstop

  • Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
  • Anthony Volpe, New York Yankees
  • Brayan Rocchio, Cleveland Guardians

Left Field

  • Alex Verdugo, New York Yankees
  • Colton Cowser, Baltimore Orioles
  • Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians

Center Field

  • Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox
  • Jake Meyers, Houston Astros
  • Daulton Varsho, Toronto Blue Jays

Right Field

  • Wilyer Abreu, Boston Red Sox
  • Juan Soto, New York Yankees
  • Jo Adell, Los Angeles Angels

Utility

  • Mauricio Dubón, Houston Astros
  • Willi Castro, Minnesota Twins
  • Dylan Moore, Seattle Mariners

2024 Rawlings Gold Glove Award Finalists – National League

Pitcher

  • Luis Severino, New York Mets
  • Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies
  • Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves

Catcher

  • Patrick Bailey, San Francisco Giants
  • Gabriel Moreno, Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers

First Base

  • Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies
  • Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
  • Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks

Second Base

  • Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers
  • Bryson Stott, Philadelphia Phillies

Third Base

  • Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals
  • Ryan McMahon, Colorado Rockies
  • Matt Chapman, San Francisco Giants

Shortstop

  • Masyn Winn, St. Louis Cardinals
  • Dansby Swanson, Chicago Cubs
  • Ezequiel Tovar, Colorado Rockies

Left Field

  • Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Brandon Marsh, Philadelphia Phillies

Center Field

  • Jacob Young, Washington Nationals
  • Brenton Doyle, Colorado Rockies
  • Blake Perkins, Milwaukee Brewers

Right Field

  • Jake McCarthy, Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Sal Frelick, Milwaukee Brewers
  • Mike Yastrzemski, San Francisco Giants

Utility

  • Kiké Hernández, Los Angeles Dodgers
  • Brendan Donovan, St. Louis Cardinals
  • Jared Triolo, Pittsburgh Pirates

The 2024 finalists include seven former Rawlings Gold Glove Award winners in the American League and ten former winners in the National League.

Following the Rawlings Gold Glove Award televised announcement special on ESPN, Sunday, Nov. 3, fans can vote for their favorite defensive player in each league to determine who will be named the Rawlings Platinum Glove Award™ winners. A combination of the national fan vote and the SDI will determine who takes home the honor.

Voting for the Rawlings Platinum Glove Award presented by SABR will begin online at www.Rawlings.com on Sunday, Nov. 3, at 9:30 p.m. ET and will remain open until Thursday, Nov. 7, at 11:59 p.m. ET. The Rawlings Platinum Glove Award winners will be unveiled at the Rawlings Gold Glove Award Ceremony in New York City, on Friday, Nov. 8.

About the Rawlings Gold Glove Award®
The Rawlings Gold Glove Award® is a registered trademark owned by Rawlings Sporting Goods Company, Inc. The award is correctly identified as the Rawlings Gold Glove Award. The name should not be shortened, abbreviated, or otherwise misused. Proper identification of this service mark using the registration symbol and the Rawlings name is important to protect the integrity of the program and perpetuate this worthy tradition. For more information, please visit www.Rawlings.com.

About Rawlings®
Established in 1887, Rawlings is an innovative leading global brand and manufacturer of premium baseball and softball equipment, including gloves, balls, and protective headwear. Rawlings’ unparalleled quality, innovative engineering and expert craftsmanship are the fundamental reasons why more professional athletes, national governing bodies and sports leagues choose Rawlings.
Rawlings is the official glove, baseball, helmet and faceguard, and base of Major League Baseball, the official baseball of Minor League Baseball and the official baseball and softball of the NCAA and NAIA, and the official softball of the NJCAA. For more information, please visit www.Rawlings.com.

NPB’s Chunichi Dragons To Post Shinnosuke Ogasawara

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The Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball have granted left-hander Shinnosuke Ogasawara’s request to be posted for MLB teams, per a report from Yahoo Japan. He’ll be available to big league clubs in free agency this winter and is being represented by WME. A formal date for his posting has not yet been determined, but he’ll have 45 days to negotiate with MLB clubs once posted. If no deal is reached, Ogasawara will return to the Dragons for the 2025 season.

Ogasawara just turned 27 years old earlier this month. He’s already a veteran of parts of nine NPB seasons, having made his Central League debut as an 18-year-old back in 2016. Listed at 5’11” and 183 pounds, he’s of slighter frame than the typical big league starter but has started at least 23 games and topped 140 innings in each of the past four seasons. That includes a career-high 160 2/3 innings with the Dragons in 2023.

This past season, Ogasawara tossed 144 1/3 innings and notched a solid 3.12 ERA with an outstanding 3.7% walk rate — the best mark of his career. Unfortunately, that pinpoint command came with a career-worst 13.6% strikeout rate that will limit Ogasawara’s appeal. To his credit, Ogasawara has missed far more bats in the past, punching out 24% of opponents as recently as 2022 and fanning 20.1% of opponents in 2023. In both instances, he had higher but nevertheless strong walk rates (6.7% and 6.1%, respectively).

Video of Ogasawara reveals a pitcher who sits in the 91-93 mph range with his four-seamer, complementing the pitch with a low-80s changeup and a slow knuckle curve that sits in the low 70s. Neither Ogasawara’s frame nor velocity stand out, but both are relatively comparable to those of 5’10”, 175-pound Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga. Ogasawara’s camp may try to make that comparison, but Imanaga consistently posted lower earned run averages and far superior strikeout rates in NPB (29.5% in his final season with the BayStars). That said, Ogasawara is three years younger than Imanaga was at the time of posting. A multi-year deal seems plausible, though likely not at the same levels as Imanaga’s $53MM guarantee (which can grow to $79MM based on club/player options).

For those in need of a reminder or an introduction to the NPB/MLB posting system, NPB clubs are allowed to “post” players for MLB teams to bid on prior to those players reaching free agency for the first time (nine years of service, under NPB rules). Any major league team can negotiate with the player and his representatives to negotiate a contract for any amount — provided the player is at least 25 years old and has at least six seasons of professional experience. (Players under 25 and/or with fewer than six years of experience are deemed “amateurs” by MLB and restricted to minor league deals and hard-capped signing bonuses.)

The posting window lasts 45 days but can reach a conclusion earlier, depending on when the player in question strikes a deal to his liking. In addition to paying the player the agreed-upon guarantees in the contract, the MLB team will also be on the hook for a release fee to the player’s former team. That fee is equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. Contractual factors like club options, incentives based on innings/plate appearances, awards bonuses, etc. are all subject to being included in the release fee as well, once those earnings are unlocked.

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