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Trade Candidate: Jose Quintana

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The Cubs, in the wake of a 2019 showing that can’t be classified as much other than a brutal disappointment, are now facing several fascinating offseason questions. Among them: Which person should they choose to succeed ousted championship manager Joe Maddon? Should they shop Kris Bryant or any other stars? Should they make a serious effort to re-sign soon-to-be free agent Nicholas Castellanos? There may not be an obvious answer to any of those questions, but there is in regards to the future of left-hander Jose Quintana. Should the Cubs exercise his $11.5MM option (in lieu of a $1MM buyout) for next season? Absolutely.

To be clear, 2019 was not a stellar season for Quintana, whom the Cubs acquired from the White Sox in July 2017 in what could go down as a costly trade for the North Siders. The Cubs gave up then-prospects Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease, two players who now look as if they’ll be cornerstones for the White Sox. It was understandable from the Cubs’ perspective at the time, as Quintana was then one of the game’s most underrated front-line workhorses – not to mention someone on a sweetheart contract.

Unfortunately for the Cubs, Quintana simply hasn’t produced like the under-the-radar standout from the White Sox since they got him. At that point, Quintana was coming off four straight seasons of 200-plus innings – an 814 2/3-frame span in which he notched a 3.35 ERA/3.34 FIP with 7.73 K/9 and 2.23 BB/9. The Cubs’ Quintana hasn’t amassed more than 188 2/3 innings in a season, and his run prevention has fallen off since his South Side salad days. Quintana owns a less impressive 4.23 ERA/3.95 FIP in 429 2/3 frames as a Cub.

To Quintana’s credit, he has struck out 8.55 hitters per nine against 2.83 walks since changing Chicago addresses. His 91-92 mph average fastball velocity and roughly 8 percent swinging-strike rate have also remained intact in recent years. So, unlike some other prominent pitchers whose bottom-line results have recently declined (Chris Archer?), Quintana’s far from broken. It’s pretty clear Quintana’s still an asset, though whether the Cubs see him as integral enough to keep in 2020 – his last year of team control – is up in the air.

Again, it should be a slam dunk to say yes to Quintana’s option. But will the Cubs shop the soon-to-be 31-year-old around after picking it up? On one hand, the answer should be no. The Cubs don’t have clear non-Quintana solutions in their rotation aside from Kyle Hendricks, Yu Darvish and Jon Lester, especially with Cole Hamels set for free agency, and they’re not teeming with young starters who are about to take the league by storm. With that in mind, keeping Quintana would be a perfectly defensible choice from the team’s perspective. On the other hand, there’s a case the Cubs are really in position to shake things up this winter, and parting with Quintana could prove to be part of their restructuring. President of baseball operations Theo Epstein was upset with Chicago’s performance off a playoff berth a year ago, so he may well be apoplectic behind the scenes now after a late collapse and no October ball this season.

One problem for Chicago, which is leery of the luxury tax, is that it hardly has an endless supply of spending room. The Cubs opened 2019 with a payroll a little over $203MM, per Cot’s. MLBTR’s Chicago aficionado, Tim Dierkes, forecasts something in the $205MM range (slightly below the tax) for next season. Including arbitration projections and excluding likely non-tender Addison Russell, the Cubs come in around $180MM. Finding a way to shave Quintana’s money via trade would free up quite a bit more spending space for the club while perhaps opening the door for a major upgrade (would it pursue Gerrit Cole?). And it shouldn’t be that challenging for the Cubs to find a taker for Quintana, who’s better than the extreme majority of pending free-agent starters.

Pound for pound, aside from Cole, opt-out candidate Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Madison Bumgarner, are there any free agents-to-be who are clearly preferable to Quintana? Hamels? Dallas Keuchel? Jake Odorizzi? Arguably, but they’ll all come at higher commitments than what Quintana’s owed next year. Quintana’s affordability could help persuade the Cubs to retain him, but if they shop him in an effort to make over their roster, there should be a solid amount of interest from around the league.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: Record Money For Gerrit Cole?

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Astros right-hander Gerrit Cole is just moments away from taking the ball against the Nationals in Game 1 of the teams’ World Series matchup. It’s a well-deserved honor for Cole, who has perhaps been the premier pitcher in baseball this season. The 29-year-old logged a sterling 2.50 ERA/2.64 FIP with a ridiculous 13.82 K/9 against 2.03 BB/9 over 212 1/3 regular-season innings in 2019. He was far and away the league leader in strikeouts (326), totaling 26 more than second-place finisher and Astros co-ace Justin Verlander.

Since his incredible regular season ended, Cole has added to his mystique with what has been a legendary playoff run. Cole dismantled the Rays and Yankees over three starts and 22 2/3 innings during the AL playoffs, yielding a mere one earned run on 10 hits with 32 strikeouts against eight walks. Unsurprisingly, the Astros went 3-0 in those games.

Cole may next help pitch the Astros to a World Series title in the coming days, but he’ll have plenty ahead of him after that. Not only does Cole look like a strong possibility to win his first Cy Young Award when the Fall Classic ends, but he might be weeks from scoring the largest contract a pitcher has ever received. To this point, just four hurlers – David Price, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer (Cole’s Game 1 World Series opponent) and Zack Greinke (now a Cole teammate) – have landed guarantees of $200MM or more. For now, the most valuable pact ever continues to belong to Price, whom the Red Sox signed for seven years and $217MM entering 2016.

There may have been skepticism earlier in the season in regards to Cole’s chances of joining Price and the rest of the $200MM club, but there shouldn’t be anymore. The question now doesn’t seem to be whether Cole, a pending free agent, will land a $200MM-plus guarantee; rather, it’s by how much his next deal will exceed that mark. The only potential free-agent starter who’s anywhere close to Cole’s stratosphere is Nationals righty Stephen Strasburg, a World Series foe, but he’s not even a lock to reach the open market. For Strasburg, doing so would mean opting out of the four years and $100MM left on his pact. Should Strasburg do it? Probably. But even if he does, it won’t preclude Cole from securing one of the richest (if not the richest) contracts anyone in the game has ever received.

It’s not hard to imagine deep-pocketed teams like Cole’s Astros, the Angels, Yankees, Nats, Phillies, Dodgers, Cubs and Giants, not to mention lower-payroll clubs like the Twins, White Sox, Rangers and Padres, among those in the mix for his services. So, there ought to be plenty of competition for Cole, which should help agent Scott Boras’ cause as he shops his star client around the league during the offseason. With Boras’ help, Cole may be on the verge of reeling in the biggest contract ever for a pitcher. Do you expect it to happen?

(Poll link for app users)

Evan Gattis Not Actively Seeking Playing Opportunities

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Evan Gattis has stayed out of the spotlight for quite some time, with nary a word printed about whether the former catcher/designated hitter was pursuing a new contract until the Astros invited him to be a part of the first-pitch ceremony prior to tonight’s Game 1 of the World Series. (MLBTR reached out to Gattis’ camp earlier this season to inquire but did not receive a reply.) He’ll catch tonight’s first pitch from former teammate Brian McCann, who retired following Atlanta’s ousting from this year’s playoffs.

Gattis broke the silence surrounding his status today when he spoke with FOX 26’s Mark Berman today about his 2019 absence from baseball (Twitter link). Gattis has not formally retired, but he also doesn’t sound like he’s seeking out any new opportunities.

“I really don’t have an answer,” said Gattis. “I don’t even know if I could play, but right now I don’t want to. [Baseball] was a huge part of my life, but I was ready.”

At this point, if Gattis wished to make a return to baseball, he’d surely need to settle for a minor league pact, though the slugger didn’t seem to have any problem with that notion. “If I really want to play,” Gattis told Berman, “I’ll go play, whether it be in Double-A, Triple-A or the big leagues. But it has been such a big transition, much like before I came back to play in baseball again.” Gattis, for those unfamiliar with his remarkable journey, battled depression and drug use after walking away from baseball following high school (as chronicled by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale back in 2013).

Now 33 years of age, Gattis last suited up in 2018 when he appeared in 128 games for Houston and batted .226/.284/.452 with 25 home runs in 451 trips to the plate. He won a World Series ring with the ’Stros a year prior and spent parts of four seasons with the club (plus another two in Atlanta), becoming a fan favorite of many along the way. In all, he’s a career .248/.300/.476 hitter in 706 MLB games (2662 plate appearances).

Joe Girardi The Reported Favorite In Phillies’ Managerial Search

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Oct. 22: Girardi has emerged as the favorite in the Phillies search for a new manager, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes. The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Matt Breen hears the same.

A match with the Phillies is not a foregone conclusion, however; Girardi is undergoing a second interview with the Mets today, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link), so he’s still very much in the running for one of Philadelphia’s division rivals. There’s been no indication of a contract offer to this point. Even if (or when) the Phils do make an offer, it’s possible that Girardi will prefer one of the other openings for which he’s interviewed. He’s been tied most prominently to the vacancies in Philadelphia, New York and Chicago, and it appears increasingly likely that he’ll be back in a big league dugout in 2020.

Oct. 21: Phillies owner John Middleton had the determining vote in the team’s decision to fire manager Gabe Kapler, and he could wield his power again in finding a new skipper. Middleton’s said to be “leaning toward” Joe Girardi as the choice, while other members of the Phillies’ hierarchy are fans of fellow finalist Buck Showalter, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. There’s no word on whether Dusty Baker, who has also been in the mix, is still a candidate for the job.

Girardi, reportedly the favorite for the position, had his second interview with the club Monday. Unlike Kapler, a first-time MLB skipper at the time of his hiring, Girardi brings a wealth of experience in the role. The 55-year-old oversaw the NL East rival Marlins back in 2006, when he led a low-payroll club to 78 wins en route to NL Manager of the Year honors. The dysfunctional Marlins fired Girardi in the wake of that season, though, and after a year off, he accepted the Yankees’ managerial job entering 2008. Girardi, who ultimately remained in the position through 2017, helped the Yankees to six playoff berths. In Girardi’s crowning achievement as New York’s manager, the team knocked off his next potential employer, Philadelphia, in the 2009 World Series.

Showalter, seemingly Girardi’s main competition, also comes with significant experience as a manager (20 years, to be exact). As of last week, Middleton was reportedly collecting information from players on Showalter. There’s already quite a bit of familiarity between Showalter and key members of the Phillies’ front office, making it unsurprising they’re interested in hiring the 63-year-old. Showalter last managed in Baltimore, where now-Philly president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail and general manager Matt Klentak worked before landing their current gigs. MacPhail hired Showalter to steer the Orioles, but it doesn’t appear the two will be reuniting if Girardi truly is Middleton’s No. 1 target.

Nationals Announce World Series Roster

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The Nationals face a tall order over the final series of the season, as they’ll run into the powerhouse Astros in this year’s World Series. To an extent, it feels like the Nats are playing with house money after the brutal start to the season. But this team has been knocking on the door for years and doesn’t want to waste its opportunity to cash in fully with its own star-laden roster.

Here are the 25 players who’ll appear in uniform for the D.C. organization:

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Catchers

The Nats have tweaked their pitching staff several times throughout the postseason, but haven’t yet added to the number of arms they’re carrying. It’ll again be eleven pitchers for the Washington club, with hopes that the team won’t need to rely much at all upon several of them.

Southpaw Roenis Elias moves off the roster after being added for the NLCS. Presumably, the team decided the extra lefty wasn’t needed for the lefty-leaning Astros, though having the additional match-up option might have been nice. Right-handed reliever Wander Suero takes his place. It’s notable that Suero has had success against both right and left-handed hitters, though his bottom-line results this year didn’t quite match up to his promising peripherals and the club hasn’t trusted him with a postseason appearance since a rough showing against the Dodgers.

Like Elias, Hunter Strickland was acquired at the deadline in hopes he’d contribute. But the righty is again off the roster after a rough NLDS showing. That leaves Hudson as the lone mid-season trade piece who’s contributing; his good work has been pivotal. The Nats are also still carrying Cabrera, who was signed just after the trade deadline and played a big role down the stretch. He has not been utilized much in the postseason, but could see added opportunites with Kendrick expected to DH for games in which that slot is available.

Meanwhile, the Nats have made a somewhat unexpected move with their long man role. Austin Voth is off the roster; he had been a potential long man but wasn’t needed in the NLCS. He’ll be replaced by Ross, who is a candidate for similar duty. Ross has also been tasked with pinch running at times in the past and might also be used in that capacity.

 

Astros Announce World Series Roster

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The Astros have announced the roster that they’ll put up against the Nationals in this year’s World Series. It’s nearly the same exact unit that the club trotted out to success in the divisional series. The ’Stros feature mid-prime hitting and pitching stars as well as a variety of useful additional component parts, making for one of the more imposing overall rosters we’ve seen in recent memory.

Here’s the 25-man group:

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

  • None

Infielders

Outfielders

Catchers

Going without a southpaw seems like a bold strategy, but it hasn’t yet hurt the Houston club. The Nats do feature a star southpaw slugger in Juan Soto, but he’s not particularly susceptible to left-handed pitching and the overall D.C. lineup balance makes it tough to mix and match too match. The Houston club continues to prioritize overall pitching ability over handedness, a stance that’s made easier with hurlers that can retire batters on both sides of the dish.

The one switch that the Houston team did make involved relief pitchers. Young power hurler Bryan Abreu has loads of upside, but was knocked around in his lone ALCS appearance. He’ll be replaced by the veteran Devenski, a changeup artist who hasn’t been in peak form but represents another reliable arm. The availability of Pressly had been in some doubt, but he was obviously deemed good to go.

Since the Astros were able to close out the Yankees in six games, they didn’t need to use Cole in an all-or-nothing contest at the end of their just-completed series. That means they’ll be able to line him up for the first game, with Verlander and Greinke to follow. And it reduced the need to add further length to the staff, which helps explain why Wade Miley continues to watch from the sideline. Other roster candidates — Myles Straw, Abraham Toro, Framber Valdez — will also wait to see if a need happens to arise by way of injury.

Pitchers Recently Electing Free Agency

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Since the conclusion of the regular season, a number of players have elected free agency. That right accrues to certain players who are outrighted off of a 40-man roster during or after the season — namely, those that have at least three years of MLB service and/or have previously been outrighted. Such players that accepted outright assignments during the season have the right to elect free agency instead at season’s end, provided they aren’t added back to the 40-man in the meantime.

We already rounded up the position players. Now, here are the pitchers that have recently taken to the open market, along with their now-former teams (via the International League and PCL transactions pages):

Position Players Recently Electing Free Agency

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Since the conclusion of the regular season, a number of players have elected free agency. That right accrues to certain players who are outrighted off of a 40-man roster during or after the season — namely, those that have at least three years of MLB service and/or have previously been outrighted. Such players that accepted outright assignments during the season have the right to elect free agency instead at season’s end, provided they aren’t added back to the 40-man in the meantime.

Here are the position players that have recently taken to the open market, along with their now-former teams (via the International League and PCL transactions pages):

Latest On Mets’ Managerial Search

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OCT. 22: Luis Rojas will also interview for a second time, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com tweets.

OCT. 20, 8:55pm: Tim Bogar is also getting a second interview, Ken Rosenthal reports (via Twitter).

7:50pm: Joe Girardi will also receive a second interview from the Mets, as per Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link).

7:33pm: The Mets are entering their second round of managerial interviews, with two names already scheduled for another meeting with team brass.  SNY’s Andy Martino reported yesterday that long-time Mets star Carlos Beltran was expected to get another interview, and Mike Puma of the New York Post writes that the Mets have indeed asked the Yankees for permission to speak with Beltran (who is a special advisor to the Yankees GM Brian Cashman).  Eduardo Perez, the former first baseman and current analyst for both ESPN and MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM, is also being asked back for a second interview, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports.

At least one more candidate is expected to join this next stage of the interview process, though the identity of the third person isn’t yet known.  Joe Girardi, Skip Schumaker, Derek Shelton, Luis Rojas, Tim Bogar, and Mike Bell are the other six candidates who have received interviews to date.  Martino also tweets that the Mets are still looking into some other candidates who have yet to be revealed.

Beltran and Perez aren’t under consideration for any of the other seven managerial openings around the game, though Beltran has said that he is only interested in managing in New York, to the point of turning down requests to interview with the Padres and Cubs.  Perez was interviewed by the Reds and Blue Jays about their managerial vacancies last offseason.  Though Beltran and Perez have 33 combined seasons of MLB playing experience between them, neither has managed at the big league level, which means the Mets would be following up Mickey Callaway’s short-lived tenure with another first-time skipper if either Beltran or Perez (or, in fact, any of the known candidates except Girardi) are hired.

Perez has been a manager in Puerto Rico and also managed Colombia’s team in the qualifying rounds for the 2013 World Baseball Classic.  Perez’s resume also include a stint as a special assistant in the Indians front office, as well as one season as the Astros bench coach in 2013 and roughly a season and a half as the Marlins’ hitting coach from 2011-12.

Beltran only hung up his spikes after the 2017 season, and after taking a year away from the sport, joined the Yankees’ front office as Cashman’s advisor.  Beltran came relatively close to becoming a New York manager two winters ago, as he was one of the six candidates interviewed by the Yankees for the position that eventually went to Aaron Boone.

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