Twins Sign Alex Avila
DEC. 10: The Avila deal and the re-signing of Michael Pineda are now official, the Twins announced. They now have 37 players on their 40-man roster.
DEC. 6: The Twins have agreed to a one-year contract with free-agent catcher Alex Avila, ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets. The Excel Sports client will take home a $4.25MM guarantee on the new deal, per the report.
Avila, 33 in January, is no stranger to the AL Central, having spent parts of eight seasons with the Tigers plus another year with the White Sox. He’ll give the Twins a left-handed-hitting complement to 2019 breakout star Mitch Garver and, ostensibly, replace Jason Castro, who seems likely to land a starting gig elsewhere in free agency.
The veteran Avila is somewhat of a divisive player, as some view his perennially low batting average and lofty strikeout totals as too detrimental to provide consistent value. Others will point to his sky-high walk rates and above-average power in suggesting that more traditional metrics undersell his value at the plate. Indeed, Avila had one of the game’s more bizarre stat lines in 2019 when he slashed .207/.353/.421 with a 17.9 percent walk rate (third among hitters with 200+ plate appearances) and a 33.2 percent strikeout rate (12th among that same subset of hitters).
Garver, 28, still stands out as the obvious starter in Minnesota after exploding with a .273/.365/.630 batting line and 31 home runs in 2019. Even if next year’s ball is corrected to be less conducive to home runs, the Twins assuredly want to plug Garver into the lineup as often as possible after a such a stout performance. He’ll see time against lefties and righties alike, but Avila will be a more than capable stand-in when Garver needs a breather and a righty is on the hill. For his career, Avila is a .241/.358/.417 hitter (15.3 BB%, 28.7 K%) when holding the platoon advantage, although his .212/.307/.311 career line against lefties is all one needs to see to steer him away from opposing southpaws. If Garver needs a day off when a left-hander is on the mound, the Twins could perhaps look to plus super-utility man Willians Astudillo and his right-handed bat into the lineup at catcher. Astudillo himself could’ve been deployed as a backup catcher in 2020, but in Avila, the Twins have found a drastically better source of on-base percentage and a better defensive option that allows Astudillo to continue on in a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none role.
Avila has long been adept at controlling the running game (career 30 percent caught-stealing rate), but he was particularly impressive in 2019 with Arizona. Although he was only a part-time catcher there as well, Avila nabbed 11 of the 21 men who attempted to run on him (52 percent), and he was 9-for-30 (30 percent) a year prior. Avila’s framing rated poorly in 2017, but the D-backs’ efforts to improve him in that regard were successful, as he was above-average in both his seasons with Arizona, per both FanGraphs and Statcast. Baseball Prospectus, meanwhile, rated him as one of the game’s best at blocking pitches in the dirt in 2019.
Minnesota still has substantial work to do this offseason — namely augmenting a rotation that currently looks too similar to its 2019 iteration — but adding Avila to the fold crosses a more minor need off the to-do list at a reasonable price point. The one-year term of the deal continues with the Derek Falvey/Thad Levine-led front office’s penchant for short-term investments as well, thus maintaining future payroll flexibility. If the Twins hope to truly bolster the rotation, they’ll probably need to eschew that preference, but for smaller-scale moves like this it’s sensible to minimize contractual length.
Astros Have Reportedly Considered Carlos Correa Trade
Speaking with Brian McTaggart of MLB.com and other reporters Tuesday, Astros president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow painted a somewhat bleak picture in regards to the team’s payroll. In Luhnow’s estimation, the Astros are going to have to clear out money if they want to acquire a top-end starting pitcher this offseason. With that in mind, it looks more likely than ever that they’ll be saying goodbye to the No. 1 player on the market, right-hander Gerrit Cole, who teamed with Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke to comprise an incredibly formidable trio in 2019.
Back in early October, before the Astros began what proved to be an American League-winning run through the playoffs, owner Jim Crane indicated he’d like to avoid going past the $208MM luxury tax in 2020. However, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of FanGraphs and Roster Resource, their luxury-tax payroll for next season is already over $231MM. As a result, the Astros could be more likely to shave payroll than make any major additions this winter.
The Astros would cut some money by trading star shortstop Carlos Correa, who’s due to earn an estimated $7.4MM via arbitration next year. Dealing the 25-year-old sounds like crazy talk, especially when you’re a championship-level team like Houston, but it’s not off the table. The club has “entertained” the possibility, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link). As of now, though, no deal appears imminent.
With the top free-agent shortstop, Didi Gregorius, now off the board, it stands to reason any shortstop-needy club would (or has) called the Astros in regards to Correa. In trading Correa, though, the Astros would be selling low after an injury-limited year and leaving themselves with questions at short (of course, they did do just fine without him for a large portion of 2019). For now, Correa’s one of several key Astros who’s due to reach free agency over the next couple years, which could hasten either a trade or an extension. Correa, Verlander and Greinke are under control through 2021, while first baseman Yuli Gurriel and outfielders George Springer and Michael Brantley are slated to hit the open market after next season.
FA Rumors: Ozuna, Braves, J. Castro, Stammen, Peraza, Grandy
The Braves are interested in free-agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. This isn’t the first connection between the sides, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported last month that the Braves were one of the clubs in on Ozuna. Now, though, it seems the Braves are willing to aggressively pursue the 29-year-old qualifying offer recipient. In the event third baseman Josh Donaldson leaves Atlanta for another team, the Braves would regard Ozuna as a viable fallback option, Morosi suggests. MLBTR predicts Ozuna will reel in a three-year, $45MM guarantee, and if he lands anywhere near that neighborhood, he should fall well short of Donaldson’s next contract. That said, replacing Donaldson’s bat with Ozuna’s would still leave a sizable hole at third base for the Braves.
Here’s the latest on several other free agents…
- The Angels, Astros, and Rangers are among the organizations with interest in backstop Jason Castro, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). With Yasmani Grandal and Travis d’Arnaud off the market, the 32-year-old Castro could be the best catcher left on the board. The pitch-framing savant’s coming off a strong season in Minnesota, where he batted .232/.332/.435 in 275 plate appearances and earned positive grades in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric.
- Several teams appear to be in the market for reliever Craig Stammen. The right-hander’s most recent team, the Padres, as well as the Astros, Diamondbacks, Reds, White Sox, Blue Jays and Cardinals have all expressed interest, per Morosi (Twitter links). Stammen, whom MLBTR projects for a two-year, $10MM guarantee, has put together a strong career divided between Washington and San Diego. The 35-year-old logged a 3.29 ERA with 8.01 K/9, 1.65 BB/9 and a 50.8 percent groundball rate in 82 innings last season as a Padre.
- The Reds are one of the teams with interest in Japanese center fielder Shogo Akiyama, president of baseball operations Dick Williams revealed (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Clubs have until Dec. 19 to sign Akiyama, who had an impressive run with the Seibu Lions from 2011-19. It’s unclear what a potential Reds-Akiyama union would mean for Nick Senzel, their starting center fielder last season. Senzel could perhaps move to the corner outfield, which does look like a need area for the Reds.
- The Cardinals are interested in re-signing backup catcher Matt Wieters, according to general manager Michael Girsch (via Goold). Whether it’s Wieters or someone else, the team seems intent on adding a veteran to play behind Yadier Molina. Wieters could wind up in Oakland if he doesn’t go back to St. Louis, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the Athletics have shown interest in the 33-year-old to back up Sean Murphy. This is the second straight offseason in which Wieters has landed on the A’s radar.
- The Orioles and Indians are two of the four teams that have shown interest in infielder Jose Peraza, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). The Reds non-tendered Peraza last week on the heels of an unproductive season, but he’s only a year removed from a respectable showing. The 25-year-old’s also controllable via arbitration through 2022.
- Although he hopes to play next season, there has been little interest in outfielder Curtis Granderson, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. The soon-to-be 39-year-old Granderson is a revered clubhouse presence who has enjoyed an outstanding career, but he’s a free agent at an inopportune time. Granderson struggled to a .183/.281/.356 line with minus-1.4 fWAR in 363 plate trips with the Marlins last season.
Angels Have Shown Interest In Josh Donaldson
Continuing their desire to land at least one of the premier free agents on the board, the Angels have shown interest in third baseman Josh Donaldson. They’ve “checked in on” the 34-year-old star, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports.
It’s now known that the Angels have thrown their hat in the ring on the two best third basemen available on the open market. A report from earlier Tuesday indicated they’ve also expressed interest in Anthony Rendon, who figures to cost far more than Donaldson. Thanks in part to the age difference between the two (Rendon won’t turn 30 until June), Rendon will significantly out-earn Donaldson. MLBTR predicts Rendon for a seven-year, $235MM contract and Donaldson for a three-year, $75MM payday. However, the chances of Donaldson reeling in a four-year pact appear to be increasing after an excellent season in Atlanta for the former American League MVP.
While the Angels’ focus is on signing the No. 1 free agent available, right-hander Gerrit Cole, there’s clearly room for a major splash at the hot corner. They traded Zack Cozart to the Giants on Tuesday, thus ridding themselves of a third base option and (perhaps more importantly) just over $12MM in payroll room. And there’s not necessarily a proven performer at the position left on the roster. David Fletcher‘s a solid player, but adding a different third baseman could enable him to focus on second in 2020. Matt Thaiss didn’t hit much during his initial major league action in 2019, meanwhile, and save for a magical few months last season, Tommy La Stella doesn’t carry a long track record as an above-average big leaguer.
Padres Rumors: Merrifield, Hedges, Mejia
The Padres traded second baseman Luis Urias to the Brewers a couple weeks ago, and now they’re attempting to replace him. To that end, they’ve “been trying to” swing a deal for Royals second baseman/outfielder Whit Merrifield, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports.
The soon-to-be 31-year-old Merrifield has been the subject of trade rumors for a while, but even though they haven’t been in contention, the Royals have refused to trade him thus far. Merrifield’s a favorite of Royals general manager Dayton Moore, though (per Feinsand) he admitted that the team must “be open-minded” in regards to any potential deal.
If the Royals are holding out for a haul of young talent for Merrifield, no team may be better equipped to put together a package than the farm-rich Padres. And finding a way to reel in Merrifield would be the latest sign the Padres are serious about breaking their long-running playoff drought in 2020.
On paper, Merrifield would be an enormous upgrade over the Urias-Ian Kinsler–Greg Garcia trio the Padres primarily relied on at second last season. Merrifield’s coming off an All-Star showing in which he slashed .302/.348/.463 with 16 home runs, 20 stolen bases and 2.9 fWAR in 735 plate appearances. Adding to Merrifield’s appeal, he’s only due to earn $15.25 through 2022 (including a buyout for ’23). However, that affordability could further encourage Kansas City to keep Merrifield.
Beyond second base, catcher is among the positions the Padres are focused on dealing with right now. They remain motivated to trade backstop Austin Hedges, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Though the team continues to provide public statements of support, it’s working to find a “new regular starter” behind the dish. Francisco Mejia is also still available, per Acee, though he’s less likely to be dealt. Trouble is for the Friars, it is difficult to identify quality backstops that could realistically be acquired. Willson Contreras of the Cubs is perhaps the most intriguing possibility.
Giants Sign Kevin Gausman
The Giants have signed right-hander Kevin Gausman, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic was among those to report. It’s a one-year, $9MM contract with up to $1MM in performance bonuses, the team announced. Gausman is a client of Tidal Sports Group.
If he maxes out his bonuses, Gausman will end up with almost the same payday he’d have received had the Reds retained him for 2020. They moved on from Gausman at last week’s non-tender deadline in lieu of paying him a projected $10.6MM next season. However, that doesn’t mean Gausman performed poorly as a member of the Reds, who claimed him off waivers from the Braves in August. On the contrary, the soon-to-be 29-year-old Gausman pitched well over a limited sample of 22 1/3 innings, evidenced by a 4.03 ERA with tremendous strikeout and walk rates of 11.7 and 2.0, respectively.
Of course, Gausman only became a Red because he had trouble preventing runs as a Brave. He put up an ugly 6.19 ERA across 80 innings as a starter before working almost exclusively as a reliever for the Reds. That said, the Atlanta version of Gausman did manage a respectable 4.20 FIP with a similarly solid 9.6 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9. And before Gausman’s career experienced a downturn in Atlanta, he recorded several quality seasons as a starter for the Orioles, who selected him fourth overall in the 2012 draft.
Now that he’s on the fourth team of his career, Gausman will presumably return to a role as a full-time starter. The Giants – whose longtime No. 1 starter, Madison Bumgarner, remains a free agent – are sorely lacking in that department. Unless the Giants re-sign Bumgarner or add another veteran, the hard-throwing Gausman, who has averaged just under 95 mph on his fastball during his time in the majors, looks as if he’ll team with Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija as the elder statesmen of the group. At least for now, Gausman’s guarantee is the largest one president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has doled out since he joined the organization last winter.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Nationals Announce Howie Kendrick, Yan Gomes Deals
The Nationals’ previously reported deals with infielder Howie Kendrick and catcher Yan Gomes are now official, the team announced.
Kendrick will earn $4MM in 2020 with a mutual option for $6.5MM or a $2.25MM buyout for 2021, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. At the moment, the 36-year-old is penciled in as Washington’s starting first baseman for 2020 after a year in which he was nothing short of spectacular during the regular season and the playoffs.
The long-solid Kendrick slashed an eye-popping .344/.395/.572 and swatted 17 home runs in 370 plate appearances during the regular campaign, in which he was a Statcast darling, before coming up with more than one enormously important hit in a postseason that ended with the Nationals’ first-ever World Series championship. He’s etched in Nationals lore for his grand slam against the Dodgers in Game 5 of the NLDS and his go-ahead home run in Game 7 of the World Series in Houston.
Gomes wasn’t anywhere near as successful as Kendrick in 2019, but the Nats nonetheless brought him back to again pair with fellow veteran Kurt Suzuki behind the plate. The 32-year-old Gomes will rake in $4MM next season and $6MM in 2021 on the two-year, $10MM pact he landed, per Nightengale.
Brewers, Corey Knebel Avoid Arbitration
The Brewers have avoided arbitration with right-hander reliever Corey Knebel, whom they’ve signed to a one-year contract, the team announced. Knebel had been projected to earn $5.125MM in 2020, his penultimate year of arbitration eligibility.
The 2019 campaign was a lost season for Knebel, who underwent Tommy John surgery in late March. At last check, though, Knebel was recovering well from the procedure.
Going forward, the return of a healthy Knebel should be a boon for the Brewers. The hard-throwing Knebel, now 28 years old, truly came into his own from 2017-18. During that two-year span, he posted a sterling 2.54 ERA/2.74 FIP with 14.66 K/9 and 4.25 BB/9 across 131 1/3 innings. Knebel also added 55 saves along the way. The fact that the Brewers made the postseason without him in 2019 makes their run all the more impressive, but he should be able to factor in next year as they go for a third straight playoff berth.
Anthony Rendon Rumors: 12/10/19
3:50pm: Agent Scott Boras says that teams with interest in Rendon have indicated a clear willingness to go to seven years, as Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times was among those to cover on Twitter. “Every club has him in an appropriate level, in the seven-year range,” says Boras. “It’s pretty consistent.”
2:23pm: The Braves have also “checked in” on the market for Rendon, Heyman tweets. But it does not sound as if they initial price indications were within range of what the Atlanta organization was willing to consider.
10:52am: The Angels have joined the mix for star free agent third baseman Anthony Rendon, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Just how involved the club isn’t known, but Heyman says the Halos have at least “expressed interest.”
Yesterday’s blockbuster Stephen Strasburg deal may have shaken things up for his former teammate. That deal seemingly makes a D.C. return less likely for Rendon. It also removed a major fallback possibility for the Angels as they attempt to lure Gerrit Cole to Anaheim.
Whether this Halos-Rendon connection relates to the Strasburg move isn’t known. But it does open another possible door for an organization that is desperate to capitalize on the rare opportunity it has to win with the game’s greatest player and a host of other players with sky-high ceilings.
It’s yet more good news for Rendon, who has no shortage of viable landing spots even if his former team doesn’t pursue him with quite as much zeal. Rendon appears to be the apple of the Rangers’ eye and has also been targeted by the Dodgers and Phillies.
Nationals “Ready To Pivot” To Josh Donaldson
The Nationals are “ready to pivot” to Josh Donaldson as an alternative at third base, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports on Twitter. It’s a longstanding connection, but the circumstances have shifted of late.
If this report is read most expansively, it might suggest that the Nats have all but given up their pursuit of Anthony Rendon, the superstar they drafted and helped to develop into one of the game’s best players. But the organization has been unwilling to rule out that possibility in the wake of the re-signing of Stephen Strasburg.
At minimum, it sounds as if the Nationals believe they’re likely to need a replacement for Rendon as he continues to draw suitors. That’s an awfully tall order, but the club certainly isn’t lowering its standards with its reported targets to date. In addition to considering Donaldson, the Nats are also said to have checked in on the trade availability of Kris Bryant.
If indeed the Nats do make a full-court press for Donaldson, they’ll need to stand out among several other contenders for his services. The division-rival Braves and Phillies are among them, along with the Dodgers, Rangers, and perhaps others. With loads of market appetite and a relative dearth of alternatives, particularly now that Mike Moustakas has signed with the Reds as a second baseman, Donaldson is seen as increasingly likely to command a four-year deal.
The Nationals have proven time and again that they’ll pay top dollar for free agents. In addition to the deals they got done, the club heavily pursued players such as Jason Heyward and Yoenis Cespedes. Whether they’ll come away with Donaldson can’t be known at the moment, but dedicated involvement from the D.C. organization is unquestionably a boon to his earning power.