Fallout Notes After Gerrit Cole Signing: Blue Jays, Angels, Pettitte, Dodgers, Bumgarner
Much will come to light in the coming days now that the Yankees have officially given Gerrit Cole the largest deal in league history for a pitcher – but even now, mere hours from the revelation, the news is starting to sink in. The rest of the pitching market could unstick rather quickly, and the Blue Jays are having to factor in their new reality of having to face Cole four or five times a year for the next decade, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith of sportsnet.ca. Of course, what better way for Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and friends to push themselves to reach their massive potentials than by facing off with the best of the best. Of greater concern for Toronto is who will take the mound on their side in 2020. With the biggest names now off the board, interest will pick up for the next tier of free agent starters, guys like Hyun-Jin Ryu and Dallas Keuchel, in whom Toronto has shown interest. Those who missed out on Cole may up the ante for the next round, however, putting the Blue Jays’ realistic options more in the field of Tanner Roark, Rick Porcello, or Wade Miley. They could even lend a helping hand to the Yankees by taking back J.A. Happ if a prospect(s) came along with him. Let’s see what else folks are saying here in the wee hours of life in our bleak new post-Cole-sweepstakes reality…
- The winners and losers of Cole’s mega contract are fairly obvious, but The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal makes the rounds anyway, starting with the Yankees – the biggest winners here (besides Cole and maybe Scott Boras) for finally reeling in their “white whale.” The Angels come away from the Cole saga disappointed, but it’s not all bad for the Halos. They have more need than could have been filled by Cole alone. As tantalizing a talent Cole is, they may be better off spreading their money around. Now that the Giants took Zack Cozart‘s deal off their hands, they might have enough resources to buy a supporting cast for Mike Trout.
- It’s easy to view the Yankees’ winning bid as a harkening back to the days of New York as the evil empire, but the reality is actually much more frightening, per The Athletic’s Marc Carig. He writes, “The Yankees are well-run, well-heeled and well-schooled in the art of reeling in the big fish.” True enough: this was no impulsive spending spree. The Yankees, like much of the league, have curbed their shopping addictions and learned to spend wisely. As a result, they should enter 2020 as favorites to win the American League. Oddly, for years it was expected that Bryce Harper and Manny Machado‘s free agency would wake the dormant goliaths from their winter slumber, but it turned out to be Cole who not only made the notoriously judicious Andrew Friedman plead his case for the Dodgers, but who prompted the Yankees to shake off the rust and woo their western rival’s star player like the old days.
- Speaking of: Andy Pettitte played a role in evangelizing on behalf of New York’s lifestyle benefits. He encouraged Cole about playing in New York as a benefit for his peace of mind, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Pettitte’s point was that Cole could focus himself on the task of winning titles, as the playoffs should be an annual guarantee (or at least strong possibility). Of course, the Dodgers and Astros could have made the same argument about their squads.
- The Dodgers, it’s worth noting, made a real push for Cole. Among 324 million other reasons, however, Cole came away from his meeting with New York impressed with new pitching coach Matt Blake, who appealed to Cole’s interest in the intellectual side of the game, noted Carig. Of course, Cole also grew up a Yankees fan, which might have tipped the scale in the Yankees’ favor in a way that the Dodgers simply couldn’t answer. Now that the dust has settled, the Dodgers are moving on to the goal of convincing Madison Bumgarner to make the heel turn and join an already strong rotation in Chavez Ravine, tweets Rosenthal.
KBO Notes: Kelly, Wilson, Raley
Though it seemed for awhile like Casey Kelly was drawing enough interest to warrant a return to the states, the right-hander has instead re-upped for another season in the KBO. Kelly signed back with the LG Twins for $1.5MM, which includes $300K in incentives, per Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net. Kelly is most famous for his time as a prospect in the Red Sox system. He was eventually dealt to San Diego in a 2011 blockbuster which also featured Adrian Gonzalez and Anthony Rizzo. Kelly never broke out with the Padres, thanks in part to 2013 Tommy John surgery, which kept him off the hill for the entire season. Kelly ended up accruing a mere 40 1/3 innings with the Padres in parts of two seasons (2012 and ’15), and later combined for another 45 1/3 between the Braves (2016) and Giants (2018). The 30-year-old Kelly has done rather well for himself overseas, going 14-12 last season with a 2.55 ERA across 180 1/3 innings as a starter for the LG Twins.
- Tyler Wilson will also return to the KBO’s Twins for another season, per Kurtz. 2020 will mark Wilson’s third season with the Twins, for whom he put together solid back-to-back seasons. Coming off a 14-7 year with a 2.92 ERA in 185 innings, Wilson has signed for $1.6MM, including $200K in incentives. The 30-year-old Virginian appeared with the Orioles for parts of three seasons from 2015 to 2017.
- Coming the other way, southpaw Brooks Raley could be on his way back after five seasons with the Lotte Giants in Korea, tweets Jon Morosi of Fox Sports. Raley was once a Cubs farmhand who broke into the majors for five starts in 2012. He also saw limited action for Chicago the following season, though totaling just 38 1/3 innings and a 7.04 ERA across those two seasons. The Cubs made Raley a 6th round draft choice in 2009 out of Texas A&M. The Minnesota Twins claimed him off waivers, but the Angels claimed him not long after. Raley never appeared at the big league level for either squad. Morosi notes that the 31-year-old Texan is drawing interest from big league clubs now, though which teams were not specified.
Marlins Notes: Rotation, Smith
The Miami Marlins haven’t had a lot to feel good about in recent seasons, but the rebuild is beginning to bear fruit. The Marlins rotation has been a talking point since around the All-Star break of 2019, and though they’re not yet a fearsome unit, they’re worth keeping an eye on. They finished the year 16th in the majors by ERA, 20th by FIP, 14th in HR/9, and 22nd by fWAR. They didn’t generate a lot of groundballs, but that’s playing to strength given their ballpark. The biggest area of improvement looking ahead to next season will be control, as they finished second-to-last with 3.50 BB/9. Still, given where the franchise has been in recent seasons, any unit climbing from the cellar is noteworthy.
That said, the first wave of talent often becomes the last wave of prospect-gathering trade bait. At least for the time being, however, the Marlins aren’t overeager to move their starting pitching. Still, that doesn’t stop teams from asking, particularly about Caleb Smith, per MLB Network Insider Jon Heyman. Smith, 28, is the veteran at the front of their young group, and his trade value remains high due to having just over two years of service time. He struggled with the long ball in 2019, but it was an overall successful campaign: 10-11, 28 starts, 4.52 ERA/5.11 FIP, 153 1/3 innings. Smith definitely made strides in securing his spot as a major leaguer, though it would not be surprising were the Marlins to pivot and decide to move him.
Regardless, President of Baseball Ops Michael Hill suggested the Marlins are secure in their starting options heading into 2020, and they’re unlikely to make a major acquisition in that regard, per Wells Dusenbury of the South Florida Sun Sentinel. The current group includes Smith, 2019 All-Star Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, Jordan Yamamoto, Jose Urena, Elieser Hernandez, and Robert Dugger. Alcantara and Smith are probably the only two with their rotation spots guaranteed. The rest of the group should have no trouble conjuring a sense of urgency, as top prospect Sixto Sanchez finished the year in Double-A, as did Edward Cabrera, perhaps their most promising arm after Sanchez.
The Marlins felt secure enough in this group (and the intriguing group of prospects coming behind them) that they dealt Zac Gallen to the Diamondbacks for young shortstop Jazz Chisholm. The position player side of the ball should soon see an influx of intriguing young talent get their chance in the big leagues. Along with Chisholm, the Marlins added JJ Bleday with the 4th overall pick in the draft and acquired another top prospect in Jesus Sanchez from the Rays. Chishold and Sanchez are likely to reach the majors in 2020, along with centefielder Monte Harrison. Chisholm, Sanzhez, and Harrison are the Marlins #3, 4 and 5 ranked prospect by MLB.com. On both sides of the ball, patience will carry the day for now in Miami. Given the gusto with which their division mates have approached the offseason, Miami is all but assured to finish 2020 in the NL East cellar for the third consecutive season.
Minor MLB Transactions: 12/11/19
There’s been no shortage of front page news this evening, but with the winter meetings not yet halfway through, there’s plenty more to come. For now, let’s take a look at some of the smaller moves that may have snuck beneath the radar…
- The Pirates signed reliever Hector Noesi to a minor-league contract, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Noesi, 33 by Opening Day, saw his first major league action since 2015 this season with the Marlins. He appeared in 12 games, starting 4, recording a 8.46 ERA/6.39 FIP over that span. The right-hander doesn’t figure to be a primary player for the Pirates, though he certainly brings a fair amount of experience having appeared in the show with the Marlins, White Sox, Rangers, Mariners, and Yankees since his debut in 2011. He performed below replacement level in four of his six major league seasons, with the high water mark coming in 2014 when he made 27 starts for the White Sox. He made very brief appearance with the Rangers and Mariners that year, but it was in Chicago where he spent the brunt of his time, registering a 4.39 ERA/4.85 FIP across 166 innings on the south side.
- The Braves have brought back outfielder Rafael Ortega on a minor-league contract, tweets Baseball America’s Gabe Burns. Ortega formerly spent time with the Rockies, Angels, and Marlins. He received some prominent playing time opportunities for the NL East Division champs down the stretch in 2019. The 28-year-old appeared in 34 games, while stepping up to the plate just 96 times, hitting .205/.271/307 in those limited opportunities. Ortega represents a depth option for Atlanta, who could still be in the market for a big bat in the outfield, should they be unable to bring back Josh Donaldson. For now, Ortega falls behind Ronald Acuna Jr., Nick Markakis, Ender Inciarte, and Adam Duvall on the depth chart, while Johan Camargo and Austin Riley could also see time in the outfield corners.
FA Rumors: Reds, Ozuna, Giants, Didi, Brewers, Thames, Rox, Chirinos
The Reds continue to show interest in free-agent corner outfielder Marcell Ozuna, Jon Morosi of MLB.com and Jon Heyman of MLB Network relay. In fact, the Reds and Ozuna’s camp have been in contact in the past 24 hours, Morosi adds. However, Ozuna is not expected to sign during this week’s Winter Meetings, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Instead, he seems inclined to wait for third basemen Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson to sign, which Sherman observes would leave him as the top bat on the open market (though Nicholas Castellanos may have something to say about that). A four-year deal is in play for Ozuna, Sherman suggests.
- The Giants, Brewers and Reds were the runners-up for shortstop Didi Gregorius, per reports from Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia and C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic. The presence of his former Yankees manager Joe Girardi in Philadelphia helped influence Gregorius to take the Phillies’ one-year, $14MM offer on Tuesday. Of the other teams involved, the Giants’ inclusion is particularly interesting. They already have an expensive veteran shortstop in Brandon Crawford, who has a sterling defensive reputation. Speculatively, the Giants could have been after Gregorius with the intention of playing him at second base. They wound up acquiring a different infielder, former Angel Zack Cozart, on Tuesday.
- The Brewers are considering a reunion with first baseman/outfielder Eric Thames, general manager David Stearns told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and other reporters Tuesday. The club bought out Thames’ option for $1MM last month in lieu of paying him $7MM next season, but doing so left the Brewers dangerously thin at first base. Outfielder Ryan Braun may be an option at the position, but manager Craig Counsell said Tuesday (via Haudricourt) that he’s not going to be the Brewers’ primary choice there in 2020.
- Robinson Chirinos, Austin Romine and Matt Wieters are among the available catchers the Rockies have spoken with, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports. The offensively solid Chirinos looks like the most appealing of the trio, as he could earn a multiyear contract worth in the neighborhood of $10MM. Whether the Rockies would be willing to go to those lengths is unknown, though it’s obvious they need help behind the plate. Their catchers (including current starter Tony Wolters) posted bottom-of-the-barrel offensive production in 2019.
White Sox Acquire Nomar Mazara
12:15am: Both teams have announced the trade.
11:05 pm: The Rangers and White Sox have agreed on a trade that will send outfielder Nomar Mazara to Chicago, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. Outfielder Steele Walker is going to Texas in return, per MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter).
This move represents a bet on Mazara’s long-lauded talent for the South Siders, who’ll hope he can finally break out at the plate after languishing just shy of league average to this point of his career. Mazara is just 24 years of age but is already in his second-to-last season of arbitration eligibility. MLBTR projects a $5.7MM salary.
Mazara has received ample opportunity ever since breaking into the bigs in his age-21 campaign. But through more than two thousand plate appearances at the game’s highest level, he’s hitting just .261/.320/.435 with a steady diet of ~20 home run seasons. That’s certainly not what you’d like to see out of a corner outfielder who isn’t a standout in the field. Mazara has yet to reach 2 WAR for his career. If you’re looking for evidence that Mazara is about to hit his stride, his power did jump in 2019, with a .469 SLG and .200 ISO both career highs. As he approaches his age-25 seasons, there’s certainly time for another developmental leap.
The Chicago organization has announced its intentions to press towards contention in 2020, upping the stakes for this move. Mazara will presumably be asked to handle the lion’s share of the time in right field, joining Eloy Jimenez as a corner outfield regular. No doubt the front office has visions of a breakout, youthful trio emerging when Luis Robert is deemed ready to man center field. Leury Garcia could hold down center to open the season and then step back into a reserve role.
As for the 23-year-old Walker, he’s a recent second-round pick who reached the High-A level last year with the Chicago organization. The former Oklahoma University star slashed .269/.346/.426 in 441 plate appearances for Winston-Salem in 2019. Walker is viewed as a high-quality hitting prospect who has a shot at sticking up the middle. He’s generally considered one of the ten best prospects in a strong White Sox farm. Walker will begin the season in Double-A, per John Blake, the Rangers’ Executive VP of Communications.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
David Price Drawing Trade Interest
10:42pm: The Red Sox haven’t made any progress toward a Price trade, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. The Padres are among the teams they’ve talked to about Price, per Rosenthal.
6:21pm: Even though he’s coming off an injury-laden season and is still owed a significant amount of money, Red Sox left-hander David Price has garnered trade interest from “multiple teams,” Jeff Passan of ESPN tweets.
This isn’t the first time the 34-year-old Price has been in the news this week. His seven-year, $217MM contract, once a record for a pitcher, was toppled by the seven-year, $245MM pact Stephen Strasburg signed with the Nationals on Monday. The Price deal hasn’t fully worked out to the Red Sox’s liking thus far, though he did help the team to a World Series victory in 2018.
More recently, Price put up a decent but unspectacular 4.28 ERA during a 107 1/3-inning 2019 campaign that ended without a playoff berth for the Red Sox. Price made only two starts beyond July as he dealt with arm problems, posted a career-low 92 mph average fastball velocity (down from 92.7 the prior year), and saw his season come to an official end in late September when he underwent minor elbow surgery.
Although last season wasn’t a banner year for the former ace, Price did log an above-average 3.62 FIP with 10.73 K/9 against 2.68 BB/9. Most clubs would sign up for those numbers, albeit at a far more reasonable price than the $96MM Price is owed over the next three years. The Red Sox seem likely to move on from Price if they can get a major portion of that money off their books, as they – led by new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom – work to get under the $208MM luxury tax in 2020. However, it’s going to be difficult, and as Passan notes, jettisoning Price could require eating some of his salary and/or adding a valuable player to the package to convince a team to take him.
Latest On Mets, Starling Marte
The Mets somewhat addressed their need in center field last week when they acquired Jake Marisnick from the Astros, but they may not be done yet. New York remains in the mix to swing a trade for Pirates center fielder Starling Marte, per reports from Andy Martino of SNY and Jon Heyman of MLB Network. The club’s “working on” a Marte acquisition, according to Martino.
As one of the most valuable center fielders in baseball, Marte’s appeal is obvious. The fact that there’s a dearth of proven center fielders available in free agency should only add to his attractiveness on the trade market. He’s under control at more-than-reasonable prices for the next two seasons (including for a guaranteed $11.5MM in 2020 and a $12.5MM club option in ’21), so the Pirates don’t have to deal him. However, considering they appear unlikely to push for a playoff spot next season, there’s a case that it would make sense for the Bucs to sell off the 31-year-old this winter. For his part, new general manager Ben Cherington is reportedly open to fielding offers for Marte.
Should the Mets end up with Marte, it would add to an already crowded group of outfield-capable players for the team. Marisnick, Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, Dominic Smith, J.D. Davis and Yoenis Cespedes (if he returns from injury) are on hand as prominent players who have lined up in the grass. However, the Mets are “open” to parting with Nimmo to somewhat alleviate the logjam, per Martino. They shouldn’t have a tough time finding a taker for the 26-year-old, as he’s a quality major league hitter with three seasons of control remaining and is only projected to earn $1.7MM in 2020.
Gerrit Cole Rumors: 12/10/19
Where’s Gerrit Cole going to land? That’s what everyone wants to know. We’ve got a poll going this morning, but otherwise we’re eagerly awaiting the day’s news on the top free agent.
We’ll track the chatter here …
- The Cole sweepstakes is closing in on an ending, reports Heyman, who adds it would take “a major upset” for him to sign with someone other than the Yankees, Angels or Dodgers.
Earlier Reports
- There is “serious and intense” bidding going on for Cole, who looks more and more likely to reach an agreement at the Winter Meetings, Heyman tweets. It’s “likely” the Astros and the Giants are the mystery clubs in the Cole derby, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, though the sources he has spoken with have cast on doubt on the hurler ending up with either team. That seemingly leaves the Yankees, Angels and Dodgers to fight it out for Cole.
- The Astros may be one of the mystery teams, per the New York Post’s Joel Sherman, who writes that they’re considering making a late charge to re-sign Cole. He was, of course, an enormously important part of the Astros’ pitching staff from 2018-19, and owner Jim Crane said last month the team would at least make an effort to keep him. Keeping Cole would likely at least push the Astros over the second level of the luxury tax ($228MM), as Sherman notes, but the reigning AL champions do have some holes in their rotation with him and Wade Miley as free agents. Perhaps a desire to keep Cole, AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke together atop the Astros’ staff will drown out any tax concerns for Crane.
- Agent Scott Boras confirmed recent reports that indicate a deal could come together quickly. He told reporters gathered for his annual media scrum that a decision may come “in the short term,” as MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch reports (Twitter links). Boras also says there are two mystery teams involved in Cole’s market, though it’s not evident just what constitutes a mystery team from his perspective.
- Cole’s major pursuers are known (Angels, Yankees, Dodgers), along with a few lurkers (Rangers, Phillies). But there’s also a mystery team involved, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Heyman himself casts doubt upon the legitimacy of this unidentified organization, noting that it is difficult to envision a new entrant to the market vaulting past the existing bidders. Indeed, it is quite difficult to peg a serious bidder among the remaining teams around the league. There are certainly other contenders that would love to add Cole, but in every case there’s reason to question the plausibility. That said, there have been surprises in the past and nothing can be ruled out entirely until there’s a team announcement on a signing.
- Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle notes (via Twitter) that he has been given reason to believe that the Giants would represent “a desirable destination” from Cole’s perspective. But he says he is not aware whether the team is involved and cautions that he has no reason to believe the San Francisco organization is a serious possible landing spot for the right-hander.
Latest On Madison Bumgarner
DEC. 10: It’s looking increasingly probable that Bumgarner will either reach or approach his $100MM-plus goal, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. “Many teams” are in the race, per Heyman, who tweets that the Twins “are thought to be” heavily in pursuit.
DEC. 9, 5:11pm: The Giants, Bumgarner’s lone team to date, are among his suitors and will meet with his representation this week, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. “We’re involved in those discussions,” Zaidi said. “We’re planning to meet with his representatives this week and they have other meetings scheduled, too. That’s what happens when a player is a free agent, they’re going to explore all their options. Guys are looking for different things, looking for maybe a particular geography, maybe a team in a specific part of their competitive cycle.” Interestingly, although they’re not known for their spending, the division-rival Diamondbacks are also in the mix, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. The Angels are also part of it, though whether they’re aggressive in pursuing Bumgarner could depend on if they land Gerrit Cole.
10:46am: Representatives of southpaw Madison Bumgarner have informed interested organizations that he’s looking to top nine figures over five years with his first free agent contract, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. Whether he’ll get there remains to be seen.
Zack Wheeler just blew past the $100M mark, but MLBTR predicted he’d substantially out-earn Bumgarner. While Bumgarner has unquestionably accomplished more in his career to date, the younger Wheeler seems on the upswing. We predicted Bumgarner would land at four years and $72MM, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see him approach or even reach the $100MM level if interest soars to five years.
The question facing MLB teams is whether they believe Bumgarner can sustain his excellent results despite less-than-exceptional peripheral numbers. He doesn’t throw as hard as he did in his heyday, but Bumgarner’s velocity has stabilized in the 91 to 92 mph range. He got swings and misses as often as ever in the just-completed campaign after experiencing a somewhat worrisome 2018 downturn. But Bumgarner hasn’t drawn quite as many strikeouts and hasn’t limited the long ball as successfully as he once did, leading ERA estimators to dim on his value.
Bumgarner stands as an interesting market bellwether. Teams won’t pay for his past performance; those days are over. But will they put a big dollar value on his still-significant anticipated future contributions? And will his history of stepping up in the postseason help his cause? Bumgarner is still just thirty years of age and got back to his 200-inning ways in 2019. And even the post-injury version of the lefty still hasn’t finished a season having allowed four earned runs per nine innings.
There are a variety of teams with interest, though to what level isn’t yet evident. The Twins, White Sox, and Reds have been linked clearly to Bumgarner, while the Reds, Cardinals, and Yankees have also been cited as possibilities. It’ll cost the winning bidder draft compensation to add Bumgarner, which could temper the willingness to add yet more dollars and/or years to an offer.