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Offseason In Review: Detroit Tigers

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This is the first post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

It was another low-key winter in Motown as the Tigers continued their rebuild process.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Detroit Tigers Depth Chart | Detroit Tigers Payroll Outlook]

Needs Addressed

Jordy Mrcer | Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY SportsJordy Mercer and Josh Harrison have spent virtually their entire MLB careers as teammates. That connection will continue for at least part of the 2019 season, as the former Pirates each signed on to form Detroit’s new middle infield duo.  The Tigers turned to Mercer to fill the hole left behind by free agent shortstop Jose Iglesias, then later inked Harrison to take over as the everyday second baseman.  Such names as Troy Tulowitzki and former Tiger Ian Kinsler were also considered by the team to fill the middle infield gaps.

Mercer and Harrison were inked to relatively inexpensive one-year deals, giving the Tigers flexibility should youngsters such as Dawel Lugo, Isaac Paredes, or Willi Castro force the issue for playing time as early as this summer.  By that same token, Mercer and Harrison could both be trade deadline chips if the Tigers find a contending team eager for infield help.

In Harrison’s case, he has particular upside after struggling through an injury-plagued 2018.  Harrison also didn’t perform terribly well in 2015 or 2016, though he was an All-Star as recently as 2017.  The 31-year-old doesn’t have to do a ton to outplay his $2.5MM contract, however, and Harrison’s overall value could improve if the Tigers shield him from tough right-handed pitching every once in a while.  Harrison also could provide extra depth at third base or the corner outfield, though he played almost exclusively as a second baseman last season. That flexibility makes it particularly easy to imagine him as a mid-season trade candidate.

While Harrison himself provides some versatility, his addition moves Niko Goodrum into a superutility role, allowing the Tigers to deploy him all around the diamond as the situation warrants.  Veterans Gordon Beckham and Pete Kozma are also at Spring Training on minor league deals, fighting with Ronny Rodriguez to win a utility infield job and potentially pushing Goodrum into seeing more corner outfield time, rather than infield duty.  Goodrum could also see substantial action at first base, since Miguel Cabrera is likely to receive the lion’s share of DH at-bats. (Backup catcher John Hicks could again factor at the first base position as well.)

As they did last winter in signing Mike Fiers and Francisco Liriano, the Tigers added a pair of low-cost veteran arms to the rotation in Tyson Ross and Matt Moore.  Ross turned in a useful 2018 season with the Padres and Cardinals in 2018, posting a 4.15 ERA and 1.97 K/BB rate over 149 2/3 innings.  It’s probably too much to expect that Ross can recapture his mid-decade All-Star form (prior to two lost seasons due to injury), though he should give Detroit some solid innings.

Moore hopes to follow in Ross’ footsteps with a bounce-back season of his own, as Moore has badly struggled in each of the last two seasons, to the point of being relegated to the Rangers’ bullpen last season.  It wasn’t long ago that Moore was one of the game’s most vaunted pitching prospects, so the Tigers are hoping the change of scenery can revive Moore’s career.

Questions Remaining

It seemed as if the Tigers were simply ready to move on from Iglesias, as a case could be made that re-signing Iglesias (10 fWAR over 656 career games) would’ve provided more value than adding Mercer (7.8 fWAR through 821 career appearances with Pittsburgh).  Mercer is only the slightly better hitter of the two, and Iglesias is the decidedly better fielder.  Considering that Iglesias ended up landing only a minor league deal from the Reds, spending $5.25MM on Mercer seems like something of an overpay.

This being said, it could be that the Tigers simply felt Mercer had more future trade value, given that they’d spent much of 2018 unsuccessfully trying to find a trade partner for Iglesias.  Plus, when a club is still in the relatively early stages of a rebuilding plan, it’s hard to argue too strenuously about which veteran was or wasn’t signed to a one-year contract.  Mercer, Harrison, Ross, and Moore could all very well be playing on different teams by September, and the Tigers’ focus for 2019 will again be on seeing which of its young players can emerge.

To this end, catcher James McCann was non-tendered after a rough campaign, wrapping up his four-year run as the team’s most frequently used backstop and giving the Tigers a chance to see what they have in Grayson Greiner.  (Both Greiner and Hicks may ultimately be keeping the catcher’s spot warm for prospect Jake Rogers in a year or two.)  The Tigers didn’t add any veteran outfield help, preferring to stick with incumbents JaCoby Jones and Mikie Mahtook in center field, and giving prospect Christin Stewart a full shot as the everyday left fielder.

Perhaps the most notable element of the Tigers’ offseason was what they didn’t do — namely, trade any of their notable veterans.  It probably isn’t surprising that Michael Fulmer and Shane Greene weren’t moved in the wake of down years, as the Tigers don’t want to sell low. Swingman Blaine Hardy drew some interest from Oakland, though nothing came together. All three of those pitchers will very likely still be in a Detroit jersey on Opening Day.  None of this group can said to be premium trade chips, and the slowed free agent market also undoubtedly hampered Detroit’s trade negotiations.  For instance, if you’re the Athletics, why deal for Hardy when you could simply sign a similar type of pitcher in free agency without having to give anything up in return?

This could also explain why the Tigers non-tendered Alex Wilson, who was projected to earn a modest $2.8MM salary in arbitration.  It wasn’t a high figure for an unspectacular but solid reliever like Wilson, though since the Tigers considered him expendable, they decided to simply part ways before the arb deadline since no trade interest could be located.

The most prominent figure in Detroit trade rumors, of course, has been slugger Nicholas Castellanos.  The Braves, Mets, and Dodgers were all linked to Castellanos at various points this winter, though none were willing to meet the high asking price the Tigers placed on the outfielder.  Detroit was looking for a prospect (or prospects) that would top the compensatory first-round sandwich pick they could receive next winter if Castellanos receives and rejects a qualifying offer and then signs elsewhere. Castellanos himself expressed a desire to be moved before the start of camp, but nothing appealing ever came across the desk of GM Al Avila.

As with the Tigers’ lower-level trade candidates, Castellanos’ market was undoubtedly harmed by the presence of so many other outfielders available in free agency (or in other trades).  Furthermore, while Castellanos has posted some fine numbers (.285/.336/.495 in 1790 PA, 67 homers) over the last three seasons, his bat isn’t elite enough that teams are willing to overlook his poor right field defense.  To this end, it’s interesting that all of Castellanos’ known suitors were NL teams, though it’s fair to assume that some American League clubs also made inquiries.

If Castellanos keeps up his hitting production, he’ll still get some looks at the trade deadline, and his market will only grow if he becomes even borderline passable as a right fielder.  Still, it seems like the Tigers will need to lower expectations about what they’ll be able to receive in a Castellanos trade, given how bat-only players have become far less sought-after than they were even only a few years ago.  Topping a QO draft pick may not be feasible — if that’s even a reasonable guide to go by. Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press recently observed that the Tigers may not end up issuing Castellanos a qualifying offer in the fall, as he could accept that one-year deal (which will be in excess of $17.9MM) rather than taking his chances on the open market with draft compensation attached.

Castellanos has recently expressed interest in a contract extension to remain in Detroit, a possibility the team has pursued previously. With Cabrera already locked into DH duty through the 2023 season, though, there isn’t much room for the Tigers to carry another bat-only player over the long term.  Since Avila has intimated that the Tigers won’t look to really boost payroll until after the 2020 season, keeping Castellanos at a hefty salary doesn’t seem to fit Detroit’s timeline.

2019 Season Outlook

It looks to be another long year for Detroit fans.  Even in a weak AL Central, the Tigers aren’t likely to make much noise.  Perhaps the club can hope to top the ghastly 64-98 record it has posted in successive seasons, but it’d be hard to expect more than modest improvement given the present state of the roster

How would you grade the Tigers’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

How Would You Grade The Tigers' Offseason?
C 37.52% (2,167 votes)
D 30.12% (1,740 votes)
F 16.67% (963 votes)
B 13.23% (764 votes)
A 2.46% (142 votes)
Total Votes: 5,776

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Cubs, Brad Brach Restructure Contract

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The Cubs and right-hander Brad Brach quietly restructured their original contract following Brach’s medical reviews, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports (subscription required). Brach says “a little bit of a viral infection” caused the change.

It appears the new pact promises Brach at least $3MM. Like the first iteration, it has quite a few moving parts.

The two sides initially agreed to a $4.35MM deal that included a $3MM base salary for 2019. It also came with competing club/player options that put at least $1.35MM in Brach’s control for the 2020 campaign.

Under the new agreement, Brach’s ’19 base salary will be just $1.65MM. He’ll have the ability to earn an additional $850K worth of bonuses based on days spent on the active roster, with $350K due for just one single day. After the season, the Cubs will decide between a $5MM option and a $100K buyout. If declined, Brach can exercise a player option at $1.35MM.

At the end of the day, it seems the Cubs will get an even better buy on a solid relief arm. Brach, who’ll soon turn 33, has worked to a 3.08 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 over 456 career innings in the majors. The veteran hurler says he’s excited to join the Cubs, but joined a growing list of players to raise an eyebrow at a free-agent process in which he received similar offers on a similar timeline from multiple teams.

Latest On Dallas Keuchel

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The Astros haven’t been engaged on Dallas Keuchel in recent weeks, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes in his latest look at the free-agent left-hander’s apparently stagnant market (subscription required). The Phillies, he adds, still have interest only in a “very” short-term deal, as was reported last week. Meanwhile, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that unless Keuchel or free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel is suddenly willing to take a one-year deal, the Twins aren’t likely to sign either pitcher three weeks into Spring Training. As for the Braves, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman wrote late last week that spring ailments for Mike Foltynewicz and Kevin Gausman haven’t been deemed concerning enough for Atlanta to pursue Keuchel.

It’s hardly an encouraging set of updates for either free agent, particularly Keuchel, whom Olney suggests is being harmed to an extent by the fact that he doesn’t fit today’s mold of hard throwers that permeate the game. Olney notes that Keuchel’s average fastball (89.3 mph) ranked 55th of 57 starters who qualified for the ERA title in 2018.

While perhaps some teams would prefer harder-throwing options, that stat doesn’t seem especially concerning when presented with further context. Keuchel’s average fastball last season was actually improved over a pair of seasons in which he was slowed by back and neck injuries in 2016-17. In fact, in Keuchel’s Cy Young-winning 2015 season, he averaged just 89.6 mph on his heater, so it’d be puzzling to see significant level of concern over that fastball velocity. Furthermore, a look at the names around Keuchel near the bottom of the fastball velocity leaderboard includes quality arms such as Marco Gonzales, Zack Greinke and Kyle Hendricks. Patrick Corbin, meanwhile, ranked only 43rd among those 57 qualified starters at 90.8 mph, and he secured a six-year contract that promises him $140MM. That deal came at a younger age and on the heels of a better season, clearly, but the contract still runs counter to the idea that teams will only pay for premium velocity.

None of that is to say that Keuchel isn’t without red flags, of course. The lefty’s strikeout percentage dipped from 21.4 percent in 2017 to 17.5 percent in 2018 (7.7 K/9 vs. 6.7), and his swinging-strike rate fell from 10.9 percent to 8.3 percent. His ground-ball rate of 53.7 percent, while well north of the league average, also represented a substantial step back from 2017’s 66.8 percent mark and from his overall career mark of 58.8 percent. All of that surely sets off some alarms for interested teams, but Keuchel was nevertheless a quality starter in 2018, as has been the case for several years. Both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference suggest he’s been worth 18 wins above replacement over the past five seasons — including a combined six or more WAR over his past two campaigns.

It’s not a stretch to suggest that virtually any team in baseball would be improved by swapping out Keuchel for its current weakest starter, but as is always the case in free agency, the financial element plays a significant role. It seems quite likely that some clubs that had interest in Keuchel and Kimbrel early this winter balked at the duo’s reported nine-figure asking prices and went on to spend their money elsewhere. Now, even if those asking prices have come down, some previously interested teams may simply not have ownership permission to spend significant dollars on another free agent. Both pitchers also rejected qualifying offers, meaning a team signing either former All-Star would be subject to the forfeiture of at least one draft pick (and potentially some international bonus pool space).

It’ll be worth keeping an eye on injuries to prominent pitchers throughout the league in the coming days to see if a new window opens. Clayton Kershaw has been battling a shoulder issue, for instance. The Braves, as previously mentioned, have multiple starters who have been dealing with injuries thus far in camp. The Cardinals may be without Carlos Martinez to open the season. Further injuries will surely arise elsewhere, although the longer Keuchel and Kimbrel wait, the more questionable it is whether either will be ready to pitch in a big league game come Opening Day.

NL Central Notes: O’Neill, Brewers, Cubs

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As things currently stand, slugging outfielder Tyler O’Neill is expected to make the Cardinals’ Opening Day roster, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. The Cards “have reserved a spot for him as a spare outfielder, for now,” Goold writes, noting that poor health in the shoulder of Marcell Ozuna and/or continued struggles for Dexter Fowler could eventually thrust him into a larger role. And with Ozuna set to hit free agency at season’s end, a more natural path to everyday at-bats for the 23-year-old O’Neill isn’t hard to see. As Goold highlights in chatting with hitting coach Jeff Albert, O’Neill has worked diligently to improve his contact skills as he seeks a more well-rounded offensive profile. O’Neill slugged 35 homers between Triple-A and the Majors last season but punched out in a quarter of his plate appearances in Triple-A and more than 40 percent of his 142 PAs in the Majors.

More from the division…

  • Brewers president of baseball ops David Stearns chatted with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand and discussed his club’s patient approach in free agency, as well as the decision not to bring in any rotation help from the free-agent market. “I’d say we explored various opportunities on the starting pitching market, but in the backdrop of all of that was the depth and comfort level that we have with our young starters,” said Stearns. “We rode a lot of these guys deep into the playoffs last year, whether it’s Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta or Corbin Burnes. They were in slightly different roles; we’re going to be asking more of them throughout the course of the year this year, but we think they have the potential to do it.” Asked if the team would have the financial wherewithal to make in-season additions after signing Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas, Stearns voiced confidence that owner Mark Attanasio is “willing to support this team and stretch the limits,” pointing to the very additions of Grandal and Moustakas as evidence of that mentality.
  • Although the Cubs didn’t make any kind of significant splash in free agency, they’re also not viewing the current roster as a finished product, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Part of the team’s lack of spending stems from a desire to make sure there are ample resources in place this summer to address in-season needs via the trade market. “We don’t know what it’s going to be, but certainly there’s going to be a major focus to make sure we’re in position to improve the team in the middle of the season,” said general manager Jed Hoyer of potential summer activity.
  • Perhaps the biggest additions the Cubs could see in 2019 would be healthy versions of Kris Bryant and Yu Darvish. Bryant said today in an appearance on 670 The Score that his shoulder feels “completely healed,” stressing that he’s not feeling any lingering effects of the injury that slowed him in 2018 (Twitter link). Darvish, meanwhile, spoke with confidence following his most recent spring outing, with particular excitement over the fact that his fastball reached 97 mph in that game (link via Wittenmyer). Obviously, only time will tell whether either former All-Star can rebound to something resembling peak form, but the fact that neither appears hampered by lingering effects of last season’s health struggles is nonetheless a positive sign for Cubs fans early on in camp.

Giants CEO Larry Baer Taking Leave Of Absence

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March 4: The Giants announced Monday that Baer is taking a leave of absence. The team issued the following statement on the matter:

The Board of Directors of San Francisco Baseball Associates is closely monitoring the matter involving Giants President and CEO Larry Baer. Pursuant to League policy, Major League Baseball is taking the lead in gathering all facts surrounding the situation. The organization is cooperating fully with the process. Mr. Baer has acknowledged that his behavior was unacceptable, apologized to the organization and is committed to taking steps to make sure that this never happens again. He has also requested, and the Board has accepted, his request to take personal time away from the Giants beginning today. The Board has asked the Giants executive team to manage the day to day operations of the Club during this period, reporting directly to the Board. As leaders in the community, we at the Giants hold ourselves to the highest standards and those standards will guide how we consider this matter moving forward. We have no further comment at this time.

March 1, 9:11pm: Pam Baer has also released a secondary statement through her attorney, detailing the incident: “I would like to clarify the events of today. My husband and I had an argument in public about which we are quite embarrassed. I took his cellphone. He wanted it back and I did not want to give it back. I started to get up and the chair I was sitting in began to tip. Due to an injury I sustained in my foot three days ago, I lost my balance. I did not sustain any injury based on what happened today. Larry and I always have been and still are happily married.”

8:03pm: Larry Baer has released another statement, as per a Giants press release: “I am truly sorry for the pain that I have brought to my wife, children and to the organization. It is not reflective of the kind of a person that I aspire to be, but it happened and I will do whatever it takes to make sure that I never behave in such an inappropriate manner again.”

4:57pm: Giants chief executive officer Larry Baer was involved in an altercation with Pam Baer, his wife, earlier today at a downtown San Francisco public plaza, Matthias Gafni and Evan Sernoffsky of the San Francisco Chronicle report.  Video of the incident was captured by a bystander, and was made public by TMZ Sports (links to the video are included in the Chronicle’s piece).

Both of the Baers commented on the situation to the Chronicle.  Pam Baer described the incident as, “We were having a family fight about someone in my family and that’s it.”  Larry Baer went into slightly more detail, saying “My wife and I had an unfortunate public argument related to a family member and she had an injured foot and she fell off her chair in the course of the argument. The matter is resolved. It was a squabble over a cell phone. Obviously, it’s embarrassing.”

Through the Giants, the couple also released a joint statement to the media: “Regrettably today we had a heated argument in public over a family matter. We are deeply embarrassed by the situation and have resolved the issue.”

The league weighed in on the matter in another statement, saying “Major League Baseball is aware of the incident and, just like any other situation like this, will immediately begin to gather the facts. We will have no further comment until this process is completed.”  Larry Baer (like all MLB owners, players, and personnel) is subject to the joint domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy introduced by Major League Baseball and the players’ union in 2015.

Mets Hire Al Leiter As Baseball Operations Advisor

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The Mets announced Monday that they’ve hired former big league left-hander Al Leiter as an advisor in their baseball operations department. Leiter will focus on scouting and player development, per the Mets, with a particular emphasis placed on mental preparation for pitchers at every level of the organization.

“Al is one of the most memorable pitchers in club history and we are thrilled to welcome him back into the organization,” said general manager Brodie Van Wagenen in a press release announcing the move. “Al’s passion for the game is infectious. His unique ability to communicate his knowledge to players, coaches and the front office will immediately make us better.”

The Mets are also expanding the role of club ambassador John Franco. Like Leiter, he’ll assist the club with scouting and player development, with an emphasis being placed on helping to develop the organization’s pitching talent.

Both Leiter and Franco enjoyed lengthy, productive stints as pitchers for the Mets in the 1990s and 2000s. Leiter pitched for the club from 1998-2004, tallying a combined 3.42 ERA over the life of 1360 innings. Franco suited up for the Mets in parts of 14 MLB seasons, spanning from 1990-2004. In 702 2/3 innings as a Met, he saved 276 games and logged a 3.10 ERA. Both pitchers were fixtures on the Mets’ pitching staff during the organization’s consecutive postseason appearances in 1999 and 2000 — the latter of which resulted in a World Series showdown with the Yankees.

Minor MLB Transactions: 3/4/19

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Here are Monday’s minor moves from around the game…

  • The Tigers announced that they’ve granted right-hander Chris Smith his unconditional release. The 30-year-old had been in Major League camp as a non-roster invitee who’d hoped to secure a roster spot, but those hopes were dashed when he learned late last month that he required Tommy John surgery. Smith underwent the procedure last week, tweets Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. The right-hander made his MLB debut with the Blue Jays in 2017, tossing five innings of relief, and he spent the 2018 season with the Nationals’ Triple-A affiliate, where he worked to a 3.93 ERA with 10.6 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9 and a 32.2 percent ground-ball rate in 55 innings. MLive.com’s Evan Woodbery tweets that Smith plans to spend the year rehabbing his elbow with an eye toward a return to baseball in 2020.

Quick Hits: Free Agents, Andujar, Conley, Brasier, Cubs

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Three of the six biggest contracts in baseball history have been signed within the last two weeks, as Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and (in an extension) Nolan Arenado all inked major deals.  This flurry of spending comes on the heels of a second straight winter of closed free agent activity, however, leaving the players’ union still more concerned with the scads of non-superstars who have yet to find work, Bleacher Report’s Scott Miller writes.  “Ultimately, it is about more than [a few players]; it’s the big picture,” Cardinals reliever Andrew Miller said.  “And even guys getting deals that they’re happy with, the timing of it, in the past it used to be maybe a couple of guys played the long game [in negotiations], but now it seems like guys have no choice.  The stories we hear when guys show up to camp is that they had no offers. Teams said they’d check in, but they’re really not getting a firm offer or numbers exchanged until camp opens, and that’s a problem. Or, it’s at least new to us.”

Some more from around baseball as we kick off a new week…

  • Miguel Andujar’s huge rookie season was one reason the Yankees didn’t ardently pursue Machado, though now that Andujar has third base to himself, the New York Times’ James Wagner writes that the young slugger has been working to prove his defensive worth at the position.  Andujar has been taking fielding training all winter, with particular focus on his footwork and throwing.  There’s obviously quite a bit of room for improvement, as Andujar had far and away the worst UZR/150 (-24.5) and Defensive Runs Saved (-25) of any qualified third baseman in the sport last season.  If Andujar can go from being a liability in the field to even just mediocre, it will give the Yankees all the more reason to keep his potent bat in the lineup as often as possible.
  • A move to the bullpen in 2018 got Adam Conley’s career back on track after he struggled as a starter the previous season, and as MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro writes, the new role has unlocked Conley’s velocity.  Never considered a hard thrower as a starter, MLB.com’s Statcast credited the Marlins southpaw with an 89.7mph average velocity on his four-seam fastball in 2017.  Last season, however, that same pitch clocked in at 95.2mph.  Beyond just the natural velocity bump that comes with tossing shorter outings as a reliever, Conley also straightened out his mechanics.  This led to some solid numbers (4.09 ERA, 2.78 K/BB rate, 8.9 K/9) over 50 2/3 IP out of Miami’s bullpen, though still with room for improvement, as Conley allowed a lot of hard contact.  Still, it certainly seems like Conley could play a big role in a wide-open Marlins bullpen, perhaps even getting some looks in save situations.
  • Ryan Brasier has begun throwing from 90 feet, Red Sox manager Alex Cora told MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith and other reporters, as Brasier continues to recover from a toe infection.  The issue has slowed Brasier’s spring work, though the right-hander and potential closer candidate is expected to be ready for Opening Day.
  • The Cubs bullpen doesn’t have a ton of questions as it relates to personnel, though there is still quite a bit of uncertainty surrounding the relief corps, as MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian explores five unanswered questions heading into the season.  Brandon Kintzler and Brian Duensing, for instance, seem to have jobs locked up, though are looking to rebound after subpar 2018 seasons.  It also still isn’t clear who will win the eighth bullpen spot, as Tyler Chatwood (another pitcher who struggled last year) could still end up in a relief role if the rotation doesn’t suffer any injuries.

Nationals Ownership Hesitant To Pass Luxury Tax Threshold

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Recent reports have hinted at a possible connection between the Nationals and free agent closer Craig Kimbrel, though luxury tax concerns could prevent a signing from taking place.  According to both MASNsports.com’s Pete Kerzel and MLB.com’s Jamal Collier, the team’s ownership isn’t at this point willing to exceed the $206MM luxury tax threshold, in an attempt to reset the Nats’ tax penalty to zero after paying the Competitive Balance Tax in each of the previous two seasons.

As per Roster Resource, the Nats’ projected luxury tax payroll sits at just under $201.5MM for 2019.  This leaves the club with a bit of breathing room for a potential trade deadline addition, as Collier notes, but not much else.  Barring a trade of another high-salaried player, there certainly isn’t room to fit Kimbrel into the mix.

It’s hard to accuse the Nationals of being unwilling to spend when the team has already been one of the offseason’s bigger spenders.  Patrick Corbin’s six-year, $140MM deal was the headline piece, though the Nats also doled out significant shorter-term expenditures on Brian Dozier, Anibal Sanchez, Kurt Suzuki, and Trevor Rosenthal, while also adding Yan Gomes in a trade from Cleveland.  Some of these moves were afforded due to money coming off the books, of course, most notably the expiring contracts of Bryce Harper and Matt Wieters, plus Tanner Roark was traded to the Reds.  Plus, the Nats have doled out plenty of large deals in the past, and may do so again if the club is able to extend Anthony Rendon.

Going forward, Washington has at least $110MM in luxury tax payroll accounted for in 2020.  Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Eaton, Sean Doolittle, and Gomes can all be retained through club options, and Zimmerman is the only one that looks like a solid bet to be declined.  Rosenthal has a vesting option for 2020, while Rendon and Dozier will be free agents outright.  Since some more roster needs will surely emerge over the coming year and into next season, Nationals ownership is surely wary of committing to another big deal for Kimbrel that would make it hard for the team to get under the tax threshold again (which will slightly rise to $208MM next season).

This all being said, it should be noted that even in adding Kimbrel, the Nationals would still very likely be in the first bracket of luxury tax overage, meaning they’d stay under the $226MM mark.  This means Washington would avoid a further surtax and only be charged a tax rate of 50% for every dollar they spend over $206MM.

As both Collier and Kerzel observe, the actual amount of money the Nationals would have to surrender in tax payments isn’t unreasonable.  Let’s suppose the Nats ended the season with a $225MM luxury tax payroll to barely stay within that first tax bracket.  For that $19MM in overages, they would then owe $9.5MM in taxes — not an insignificant amount of money, but hardly onerous for a big-market team with World Series aspirations.  As Collier puts it in a rhetorical question, “Would you rather win 93 games, the division and have paid the penalty or win 88, miss the postseason and avoid it? To me, it’s a no-brainer, but it’s a hurdle they [the Nationals] have not been willing to clear.”

It isn’t a guarantee, of course, that Kimbrel’s addition would automatically put Washington over the top in a very competitive division.  But this hesitation on the part of team ownership is particularly odd considering that the Nats have already topped the tax level in both 2017 and 2018.  It also calls into question of why, if a third straight season in excess of the tax was such a big issue for ownership, the Nationals didn’t make a bigger push to unload salary last summer.  D.C. waited until they were entirely out of the race in late August to begin trading players (i.e. Daniel Murphy, Gio Gonzalez, Ryan Madson, and Matt Adams), though it already looked like they had little shot at either the NL East title or even a wild-card slot.  The Nats ended up topping last year’s CBT threshold by only $8MM, even dealing some of those same players earlier would’ve saved the team a few more weeks’ of salaries.

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