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Mets’ Franklyn Kilome Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

By Steve Adams | October 25, 2018 at 1:31pm CDT

Mets pitching prospect Franklyn Kilome will miss the entire 2019 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, tweets MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo. The right-hander was acquired in a straight-up swap that sent Asdrubal Cabrera to the division-rival Phillies back in July, and he ranked fifth among Mets prospects on MLB.com’s latest rankings.

Kilome, 23, dramatically improved his K/BB numbers upon being traded from Philadelphia to New York, pitching to a 4.03 ERA with 9.9 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and 0.71 HR/9 with a 39.8 percent grounder rate in 38 frames with the Mets’ Double-A affiliate. He’s previously been ranked among the game’s Top 100 prospects by Baseball Prospectus and garnered praise from MLB.com’s Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo for his upper 90s heater, a potentially plus curveball and his general makeup and intelligence on the mound.

Given Kilome’s 140 innings at the Double-A level in 2018, it’s not a reach to think he could’ve been a factor on the Mets’ staff at some point in mid-to-late 2019 had he remained healthy. Instead, the Mets won’t get a look at him until at least the 2020 season, though at the very least, he’ll be nearly 18 months removed from Tommy John surgery when Spring Training ’20 rolls around. That’s minimal consolation for a Mets club that’ll lose a full season of development for one of its most promising and most MLB-ready arms, though.

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New York Mets Franklyn Kilome

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Mets’ GM Search Down To Three Finalists

By Steve Adams and Jeff Todd | October 25, 2018 at 12:40pm CDT

Oct. 25: Like Van Wagenen before him, Bloom has opted to release a brief statement rather than conduct an interview with the media. It’s a fairly standard-issue statement, with Bloom calling yesterday’s second interview with the Mets “productive” and adding that he “enjoyed” the opportunity to but declining to speak much beyond that out of respect to his current role with the Tampa Bay organization.

DiComo tweets that a “sizable industry majority” considers Melvin to be the favorite, though he and numerous others have suggested that the lack of a media session for Van Wagenen and Bloom shouldn’t be read into as an indicator that Melvin has the job locked up. Rather, neither Van Wagenen nor Bloom felt comfortable addressing the New York media about a potential new role, given their prominent standing elsewhere in the baseball world.

Oct. 24: The Mets’ ongoing search for a general manager was narrowed to five recently, and Matt Ehalt of the New Jersey tweets that two candidates, MLB exec Kim Ng and agent Casey Close, have been eliminated from the running. (Close’s role in the process is now being downplayed, as Tim Healey of Newsday tweets.) MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo hears similarly, tweeting that the three finalists for the post are Rays senior vice president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom, former Brewers/Rangers general manager Doug Melvin, and agent Brodie Van Wagenen — the head of CAA Baseball.

The backgrounds of the three reported finalists are about as wide-ranging as one could imagine. We’ll keep tabs on the situation here:

Chaim Bloom

Bloom, 35, cut his teeth as a 21-year-old intern and rose through the ranks of one of baseball’s most analytic- and data-driven organizations, recently being named one of the Rays’ top two execs alongside GM Erik Neander. He will have the chance to make final impressions on the Mets hiring committee, following the other two candidates in the process. It is expected that he’ll speak with the media following his interview.

Doug Melvin

The 66-year-old Melvin comes from a more traditional scouting background and would undoubtedly be tabbed an “old-school” hire by the Mets, though his fingerprints are still present on a Brewers club that just came within a game of a World Series berth. Melvin was the GM for the acquisitions of Josh Hader (Carlos Gomez trade), Domingo Santana (Gomez trade), Corey Knebel (Yovani Gallardo trade), Zach Davies (Gerardo Parra trade) and Hernan Perez (waiver claim) as well as the drafting of Brandon Woodruff, Jacob Barnes and Brent Suter.

Following his sit-down, Melvin chatted with the media about his candidacy, as MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo was among those to cover. He emphasized that he’s open to contemporary analytics and also attempted to highlight his own instances forward thinking as an executive. Melvin seemingly positioned himself as a seasoned decisionmaker who can incorporate cutting-edge tools. He also stressed that he is motivated to get back into the day-to-day running of an ops department after several years away.

Brodie Van Wagenen

Van Wagenen would be the most outside-the-box hire the Mets could make, having no prior experience as an executive with a Major League club. The 44-year-old directly represents numerous Mets players, though, including Yoenis Cespedes and Jacob deGrom, so owners Fred and Jeff Wilpon undoubtedly have a longstanding familiarity with him. Agencies are continually becoming increasingly versed in analytics as they seek to make the best possible cases for their clients, though certainly there’d be an enormous difference between heading up an agency (even one of the game’s larger agencies) and running a baseball operations department while simultaneously addressing the media as the face of the team’s leadership.

Van Wagenen interviewed on Monday. While the New York Post’s Mike Puma has previously reported that the Mets plan on making all of the finalists available to the media after the coming wave of secondary interviews, that did not come to pass in this case owing to Van Wagenen’s still-existing agency obligations.

The Mets did release a statement from Van Wagenen, who says his “conversations with the Mets continue to be organic.” He sought to walk a fine line in his comments, concluding by writing, somewhat awkwardly: “As Jeff and Fred [Wilpon] continue their search for a new head of baseball operations, the players, fans and entire organization will be motivated to have a leader with the skills and commitment to win. If the Wilpons believe I am that person, we will have that conversation.”

As Puma writes, the obvious tension between Van Wagenen’s current role as a significant agent and his consideration for this important role with the Mets is a significant concern for some on the player side of the labor divide. Clearly, it creates a tricky situation even during the interview process. Van Wagenen would need to step away from CAA and transfer representation of his clients to others in the agency were he to ultimately take the Mets’ job.

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New York Mets Brodie Van Wagenen Chaim Bloom Doug Melvin

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Tigers Outright Four Players

By Steve Adams | October 25, 2018 at 11:00am CDT

Oct. 25: The Tigers have announced all the moves, adding that Coleman, Adduci and Kozma have indeed elected free agency. Castro, it seems, will remain with the organization.

Oct. 24: The Tigers have outrighted shortstop Pete Kozma, right-hander Louis Coleman, first baseman/outfielder Jim Adduci and infielder Harold Castro after each the four cleared waivers, per the team’s transaction page at MLB.com. They’ll join right-hander Artie Lewicki, who did not clear waivers and was claimed by the D-backs, as the first five offseason roster casualties for the Tigers.

Kozma, still just 30 years old, had two stints with the Tigers this season but hit just .217/.236/.348 in 73 trips to the plate. His Triple-A work wasn’t any prettier (.203/.260/.295), though the defensive specialist has always been known more for his glovework than his bat.

Coleman, 32, racked up a fairly significant workload in Detroit this year, tallying 51 1/3 innings out of manager Ron Gardenhire’s bullpen. His 3.51 ERA looks fairly appealing at first glance, but he managed just 7.2 K/9 against 4.2 BB/9 and worked off a fastball that averaged 89.1 mph. Coleman benefited from a strand rate (78.8 percent) well north of the league average and a BABIP (.270) that was a good bit shy of the league norm, though both those numbers were in line with his career marks.

The 33-year-old Adduci has spent time with the Tigers in each of the past two seasons but mustered only a .267/.290/.386 batting line in 185 trips to the plate in 2018. The Canadian-born veteran has had plenty of success in Triple-A (career .287/.354/.414 hitter) and also fared well in a pair of seasons with the Lotte Giants of the Korea Baseball Organization (.307/.369/.530).

Castro, 25 next month, went 3-for-10 in his big league debut this season after having his contract selected in late September. He didn’t give the organization much reason for optimism with his Triple-A showing, hitting .257/.270/.310 in 251 plate appearances, and it’s been four years since he was ranked 28th among Tigers farmhands by Baseball America.

All four players — certainly Kozma, Coleman and Adduci — seem likely to become free agents and look for new minor league pacts in the offseason. Both Kozma and Coleman would’ve been arbitration-eligible this offseason, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting Kozma at a modest $700K and Coleman at $1.1MM.

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Detroit Tigers Transactions Harold Castro Jim Adduci Louis Coleman Pete Kozma

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Official Super Two Cutoff

By Steve Adams | October 25, 2018 at 10:17am CDT

This year’s cutoff for players to achieve Super Two status, and thus be eligible for arbitration a year early, has been set at two years and 134 days of Major League service time (written as 2.134), tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick.

In order to reach Super Two status, a player must be in the top 22 percent of players with between two and three seasons of MLB service (in terms of total service time) and must have spent 86 days of the preceding season on a Major League roster or disabled list. That designation allows those players to reach arbitration eligibility a year early and go through arbitration four times as opposed to the standard three.

Not only does this increase players’ earning power in the ensuing season, but it also has a substantial impact on their earnings years down the line, as arbitration salaries are built upon the prior year’s earnings. By getting to arbitration early, players jump-start their earning potential a full year sooner than most of their peers. It’s hardly a surprise, then, that the current single-season salary record holder for an arbitration-eligible player, Josh Donaldson, reached Super Two status early in his career ($23MM). Nor is it surprising that Nolan Arenado, who is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to break that record this offseason, was also a Super Two player. Swartz projects Arenado to take home a whopping $26.1MM salary in his final winter of arbitration eligibility.

Here’s how this year’s 2.134 cutoff compares to recent years:

  • 2017: 2.123
  • 2016: 2.131
  • 2015: 2.130
  • 2014: 2.133
  • 2013: 2.122
  • 2012: 2.140
  • 2011: 2.146
  • 2010: 2.122
  • 2009: 2.139

This year’s cutoff is the highest in a half decade, leaving a handful of players ever so slightly on the outside of the bubble. Among them are the Mariners’ Edwin Diaz (2.121), the Athletics’ Andrew Triggs (2.123), the Dodgers’ Austin Barnes (2.124), the Rays’ Mallex Smith (2.125), the Nationals’ Justin Miller (2.128), the Rangers’ Matt Bush (2.132) and the Reds’ Scott Schebler (2.132).

Conversely, there are a few players who ever so narrowly squeaked into Super Two status under the wire. Chief among them is Nationals shortstop Trea Turner, who exemplifies the benefit of reaching Super Two status. Had Turner accrued even two fewer days of big league service than the 2.135 years he presently has, he’d have been in line for a six-figure salary not far north of the Major League minimum. Instead, he’s projected by Swartz to earn nearly 10 times that amount — a salary of $5.3MM. He’ll get a raise based on that starting point in 2020 and continue earning raises through the 2022 season, after which he’ll be a free agent.

Beyond Turner, Tigers left-hander Matthew Boyd just barely surpassed the cutoff at 2.136 and is projected at an even $3MM. Cubs righty Carl Edwards Jr. and Braves lefty Jacob Lindgren each landed at 2.134 on the dot, making both arbitration-eligible this winter as well. Edwards is projected to earn $1.4MM, while Lindgren projects at $600K due to the fact that he missed the 2018 season recovering from surgery and did not throw a pitch.

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Chicago Cubs Detroit Tigers Newsstand Washington Nationals Carl Edwards Jr. Matt Boyd Trea Turner

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Twins Name Rocco Baldelli Manager

By Steve Adams | October 25, 2018 at 9:40am CDT

9:40am: The Twins issued a press release formally announcing Baldelli as their new manager.

7:08am: The Twins are set to hire Rays field coordinator Rocco Baldelli as their new manager, with an announcement expected later today, as FOX 9 Sports in the Twin Cities reported late last night (Twitter link). La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune first indicated that Baldelli, 37, had separated himself from the pack in the Twins’ search for a replacement for recently dismissed manager Paul Molitor.

Rocco Baldelli | Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

Baldelli had previously been in consideration for several managerial vacancies, with both the Blue Jays and Rangers reported to have him among their top candidates. Incumbent Twins bench coach Derek Shelton was also said to be a finalist, and Neal notes that Cubs bench coach Brandon Hyde was the team’s other top choice. It seems quite possible that Shelton, who served on the Rays’ coaching staff with Baldelli until being hired by the Twins last offseason, could remain on hand as the bench coach, given his familiarity with Baldelli.

While he’s never managed at any level previously, Baldelli spent three seasons as the Rays’ first base coach (2015-17) and was also in charge of the team’s outfield instruction in that time. The organization created the new role of Major League field coordinator for Baldelli in 2018 — a role in which he assisted manager Kevin Cash and bench coach Charlie Montoyo with a heavy focus on player development at the MLB level.

Of course, Baldelli is better known for his career as a big league outfielder. Injuries ruined what looked to be an exceptionally promising career for the former No. 6 overall pick (Rays, 2000), who debuted in the Majors as a 21-year-old back in 2003. Baldelli hit a combined .285/.326/.425 with 27 homers and 44 steals through his first 292 big league games, flashing the potential to emerge as a true five-tool asset for a still-young Rays franchise. He suffered an ACL tear in the 2004-05 offseason, however, and also required Tommy John surgery on his right elbow before he was able to make it back to the field.

Those injuries cost Baldelli the entirety of the 2005 season, but he returned looking none the worse for the wear in 2006 when he batted .302/.339/.533 in 92 games. But Baldelli’s career took a mysterious downturn the following season, and doctors initially diagnosed him with a rare mitochondrial deficiency and, eventually, a condition called channelopathy. In essence, his body was not metabolically capable of producing the energy necessary for his muscles to recover from the rigors of playing baseball at a professional level. Although he managed a few brief returns to the field, Baldelli made just 429 career plate appearances following that brilliant 2007 return effort. He played his final game in the Majors at just 29 years of age.

Baldelli will come to the Twins from one of the most progressive organizations in baseball. While manager Paul Molitor was more than open to data and modern baseball strategies — evidenced by the Twins’ aggressive shifting in his tenure and usage of “the opener” in 2018 — Baldelli has spent the past seven years immersed in an analytic-based culture with the Rays. At 37 and only eight years removed from serving as a player, he’ll likely be touted as a candidate more capable of connecting with younger players while also possessing a more natural comfort level with the data-driven decisions that increasingly permeate today’s game.

It’s a radical shift for a Twins organization that has previously opted to hire from within the organization. Minnesota has long been among the most loyal organizations in baseball, perhaps to a fault at times, as evidenced by the fact that Baldelli will incredibly be just the fourth Twins manager in the past three decades. Tom Kelly was hired by Minnesota in 1986 and held that role until being succeeded by one of his coaches, Ron Gardenhire, in 2001. Gardenhire, in turn, held onto the Twins’ managerial post until 2014 and was replaced by Molitor, who’d served on his own coaching staff.

The Pohlad family, who owns the Twins, has a reputation for maintaining the status quo, but Jim Pohlad has shown more of a willingness to shuffle the deck following the passing of his father, Carl, in 2009. Pohlad dismissed both Gardenhire and longtime GM Terry Ryan amid a prolonged run at the bottom of the AL Central earlier this decade and has since hired chief baseball officer Derek Falvey away from the Indians and general manager Thad Levine away from the Rangers in an effort to overhaul and modernize what was perceived as one of the game’s most “old school” organizations. Hiring the 37-year-old Baldelli is the next step in that effort.

Coaching changes figure to follow, and there’s significant work for Falvey and Levine to do on the roster following a disappointing 2018 season. But Falvey and Levine look to have settled on the voice they hope can lead the organization back to prominence in a weak American League Central division that features multiple rebuilding clubs.

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Minnesota Twins Newsstand Tampa Bay Rays Rocco Baldelli

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Diamondbacks Claim Artie Lewicki From Tigers

By Steve Adams | October 24, 2018 at 6:55pm CDT

The Diamondbacks have claimed right-hander Artie Lewicki off waivers from the Tigers, per the MLB.com Transactions page (hat tip: MLive.com’s Evan Woodbery, on Twitter). Lewicki underwent Tommy John surgery back in late August.

The 26-year-old Lewicki (27 in April) has generally turned in quality results in the upper minors but has yet to have much success as a big leaguer. In 2018, he turned in 38 1/3 innings of 4.89 ERA ball with 7.0 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.93 HR/9 and a 40.3 percent ground-ball rate with the Tigers. However, he posted a 2.03 ERA with terrific K/BB numbers in Triple-A in 2017 and owns an overall 3.79 ERA with 8.5 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 in 92 2/3 innings at the top minor league level.

Obviously, Lewicki is highly unlikely to pitch for the D-backs in 2019. It’s not even a given that Arizona will carry him on the 40-man roster through the duration of the offseason. The Diamondbacks could try to run the right-hander through waivers themselves and then send him outright to Triple-A, retaining his rights but shedding the requirement to carry him on the 40-man roster. If Lewicki does survive the offseason on Arizona’s 40-man, he could be immediately added to the 60-day disabled list next spring, thus freeing a spot for the remainder of the 2019 season.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Detroit Tigers Transactions Artie Lewicki

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MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Jason Martinez | October 24, 2018 at 6:28pm CDT

Click here to join MLBTR Live Chat With Jason Martinez: October 24, 2018

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MLBTR Chats

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NL East Notes: Phillies, Roark, Braves

By Steve Adams | October 24, 2018 at 5:54pm CDT

The Phillies are hiring away Astros minor league field coordinator Josh Bonifay as their new farm director, reports Matt Gelb of The Athletic (subscription link). The 40-year-old Bonifay is the son of former Pirates general manager Cam Bonifay (1993-2001) and has spent nearly a decade working as a manager or coach in the Astros’ system with the exception of a 2017 stint as the Rangers’ minor league field coordinator. The Phillies parted ways with previous farm director Joe Jordan and several minor league hitting coaches in September, and Bonifay will be tasked with helping to implement a systemic change in the manner in which data is presented to minor league coaching staffs.

Here’s more from the NL East…

  • Tanner Roark heads into a contract season with the Nationals in severe need of a rebound campaign, writes Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. As Zuckerman explores, Roark has now posted an ERA north of 4.30 in three of the past four seasons, making what previously looked like outlier campaigns perhaps the new norm. There’s no mention of a possible non-tender or trade in Zuckerman’s piece, though it’s fair to wonder if the Nationals will feel comfortable committing a hefty salary to the 32-year-old Roark given his run of largely pedestrian results; MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz pegs him for a $9.8MM payday in 2019 — his final season of arbitration eligibility. While the Nats have a clear need for starters behind Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, Roark is becoming a relatively pricey option, although to his credit, he’s been a durable rotation cog (30+ starts in three straight seasons).
  • Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution looks at the Braves’ need for some help atop the rotation and the means by which they could acquire said help, though he notes that recent comments by GM Alex Anthopoulos caution against the possibility of an expensive splash. “If there’s a deal that makes sense for us, and it’s a good asset to have, we’ll do it,” said Anthopoulos. “I think the one where you scratch and really push, and you want to call it overpay in years or dollars, you feel like that’s the one final piece. … I don’t think we’re there yet right now.” Atlanta does have plenty of intriguing arms in the upper minors, some of whom have already debuted in the Majors. It’s possible that a few prominent contributors could yet emerge from within or that those pieces could be packaged for some high-end, cost-controlled help. A free-agent splash for someone like Patrick Corbin, however, seems decidedly less likely.
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Atlanta Braves Houston Astros Philadelphia Phillies Washington Nationals Tanner Roark

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2018-19 Market Snapshot: Starting Pitchers

By Jeff Todd | October 24, 2018 at 2:21pm CDT

This is the final installment in our Market Snapshot series. Let’s check in on the array of possibilities for teams looking at rotation improvements.

Teams In Need

There are few teams that won’t at least consider some kind of tweaks to their rotation mix in any given offseason. Some, though, stand out as worthy of particular attention.

A variety of contenders will be looking to get better and perhaps also boost depth. The Astros, Angels, Athletics, Yankees, Nationals, and Braves all have needs. It’s possible the Phillies, Cardinals, and Red Sox could look to improve, even if they could also might largely hold pat. We’ve heard plenty of suggestions that the Padres and Reds are serious about getting new rotation pieces in place.

The Brewers held off on any major improvements last winter but tried to add Yu Darvish, so could again seek arms. Similarly, the creative Rays have some money to spend and surely wouldn’t mind adding productive starters at a good value despite the successes of their non-traditional staff management. Though their anticipated competitiveness may be somewhat in doubt, it’d be unwise to count out clubs such as the Blue Jays, Twins, Pirates, Giants, Diamondbacks, and Rangers. Even clubs like the White Sox and Royals could at least go looking for depth, while serving as wild cards to do more.

Free Agents

Frontline: Clayton Kershaw is still the big name to watch, assuming he opts out as expected. While he won’t take home the kind of whopping deal that once seemed possible, he’ll still draw plenty of attention — if he doesn’t work something out with the Dodgers in advance. Patrick Corbin is coming off of a huge season at relatively youthful age and figures to be of keen interest. The somewhat older and generally more accomplished Dallas Keuchel is also in line for a big contract, but perhaps doesn’t have the earning upside of Corbin. Charlie Morton could ring up a big payday, though his own geographical and competitive preferences may lead him to feature as a nice value.

Mid-rotation: Nathan Eovaldi is arguably the most fascinating pitcher to watch, given his age, loud stuff, and recent success after a run of health issues. Another wild card could be coming from Japan in the form of southpaw Yusei Kikuchi, who may well be posted.

As they did on the trade market, J.A. Happ, Cole Hamels (if his option isn’t exercised), and Gio Gonzalez can offer quality veteran frames. Hyun-Jin Ryu has had major injury issues but has also been excellent when healthy. You could probably debate how to categorize Matt Harvey, Trevor Cahill, and Derek Holland, but we’ll keep them here since all have solid cases for multi-year commitments.

CC Sabathia can still get the job done, though he’ll likely go for another single-year pact. It’ll be interesting to see how the market treats Anibal Sanchez after his stunning bounceback year in Atlanta, but it’s hard to ignore his numbers.

Back-end: Wade Miley and Lance Lynn also had interesting seasons. The former had great results that aren’t fully backed by peripherals (at least, if you don’t believe he can sustain his home run suppression), while the latter was dinged for nearly 5 earned per nine on the year but put up some impressive peripherals after being traded to the Yankees.

Other pitchers that had at least reasonably productive 2018 seasons, but otherwise come with some less desirable features, include Brett Anderson, Clay Buchholz, Jeremy Hellickson, Edwin Jackson, Tyson Ross, and James Shields. Bounceback candidates include Drew Pomeranz, Ervin Santana, Jaime Garcia, Marco Estrada, Matt Moore, and Martin Perez, while Garrett Richards seems situated to ink a two-year deal while he finishes his Tommy John rehab.

Depth: Bartolo Colon, Doug Fister, Yovani Gallardo, Miguel Gonzalez, Jason Hammel, Drew Hutchison, Francisco Liriano, Jordan Lyles, Tommy Milone, Hector Santiago, Chris Tillman, Josh Tomlin

Trade Candidates

Top targets: Contenders will see how a new Mets front office feels about Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Zack Wheeler, with a feeding frenzy sure to ensue if they’re made available. It’s perhaps equally unlikely that the Giants will put Madison Bumgarner up for option, but he’d be a fascinating player to see the market value given his outstanding track record and more recent warning signs. It seems reasonable to anticipate that the Diamondbacks will market Zack Greinke, who’s awfully pricey but is now playing on a three-year term and is still very good.

Mid-rotation targets: We’ve already seen clear indication that the Yankees will try to find a taker for Sonny Gray after a rough campaign. Andrew Cashner (Orioles), Ivan Nova (Pirates) and Tanner Roark (Nationals) are other potential trade candidates who have of innings. None of these pitchers is cheap, but all are available on one-year commitments.

The Blue Jays would get plenty of interest if they decided to move on from Marcus Stroman, though it’s not clear that’ll happen. Likewise, Arizona hurlers Robbie Ray and Zach Godley would be of  interest elsewhere. Other talented pitchers who have struggled recently include Dylan Bundy of the Orioles and Danny Duffy of the Royals.

Other pitchers could come available if teams like the Red Sox, Braves, and Phillies seek upgrades, though it’s hard to guess at the possibilities at this point.

Contract dumps: Ian Kennedy (Royals), Tyler Chatwood (Cubs), Jordan Zimmermann (Tigers), Alex Cobb (Orioles), Jeff Samardzija (Giants), Homer Bailey (Reds)

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MLBTR Originals Market Snapshot

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Stearns On Brewers’ Offseason, Future Outlook

By Ty Bradley | October 24, 2018 at 11:49am CDT

After a deflating coda to one of the most successful seasons in franchise history, Brewers GM David Stearns held court with the media yesterday to discuss the team’s position heading into the 2019 season.  Though obviously disheartened with the club’s Game Seven performance at home last Saturday, the third-year boss sees little reason for pessimism in the near future.

“From an organizational perspective, I’m incredibly proud of how our organization presented itself throughout the season and particularly on a national stage in October,” Stearns said. “Another rewarding aspect is we genuinely believe we are set up to succeed going forward. We return the vast majority of the core of this team. We return that core for multiple years going forward.”

Indeed, the Brewers boast just three players – lefties Wade Miley and Gio Gonzalez, along with 37-year-old Curtis Granderson – who stand to hit free agency this offseason.  With a glut of emerging rotation candidates, including Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, and Corbin Burnes, and regulars with lengthy track records entrenched at multiple positions, the 2019 Brewers figure to look strikingly similar to the current version.

“From a specific standpoint, a positional standpoint at the major-league level, we have the vast majority of our team returning,” said Stearns. “So, I don’t know that I would pinpoint a particular area or two that we see that absolutely must be addressed. But there are going to be opportunities to improve our team in the off-season, and we’re going to work hard to take advantage of those opportunities.”

Milwaukee will face difficult decisions with Joakim Soria and Mike Moustakas, over whom the club holds contract options for the upcoming season, and Jonathan Schoop, whose $10.1MM projected arbitration salary (per MLBTR’s Matt Swartz) is hardly congruent with his recent output.  The Brewers hold a $10MM option over the 34-year-old Soria, who stands as one of the game’s few relievers able to sustain success for more than a decade – the two-time All-Star enjoyed one of his best seasons in 2018, posting his highest strikeout rate (11.13 K/9) in nine years and again limiting walks and homers at an elite rate.  His 92.4 MPH average fastball sits in perfect harmony with his marks in the category over the last few years and again ranked as one of the league’s most effective, per FanGraphs’ pitch value ratings.  He’s surely worth the figure, but might be a luxury item for the mid-market club already possessing of an elite back-end bullpen.  Moustakas, 30, has a mutual option with the Crew for $15MM in ’19 and seems most likely to be cut loose – his presence, after all, would mean an unorthodox return to second base for the 6’4, 230 lb Travis Shaw, likely rendering Schoop – for whom the Brewers gave up a package that included Jonathan Villar, who easily outperformed Schoop last season, and highly regarded hurler Luis Ortiz – a platoon bat at best, if retained.

The only clear area of upgrade may be shortstop, where former top prospect Orlando Arcia sputtered to a dreadful 54 wRC+ and .235 xWOBA this season.  Arcia’s defense, long seen as sufficient to overcome a hole-ridden swing, has received mostly ambivalent reviews in his three-year career thus far, with UZR (-5.3 total) being a bit more skeptical than DRS (+8).  The Crew could turn to Schoop, though his mostly average marks at the keystone wouldn’t seem to portend well at a more demanding position, or pursue a trade, though the options, much like the free agent market at the position, are far from promising.  Catcher could be another option, though Stephen Vogt hopes to be ready by Spring Training in his recovery from a shoulder tear.  For bait, the club could look to deal from its a long-standing surplus in the outfield, where even former middle-of-the-order stalwarts Domingo Santana and Eric Thames struggled to find at-bats down the stretch.

In all, the Brewers project to have a ~$25MM payroll bump (to an estimated $115MM, per Roster Resource and MLBTR’s Jason Martinez) before the option decisions, so the team doesn’t figure to be major players in free agency, though Stearns certainly didn’t rule it out: “I certainly imagine that we are going to show up in spring training with a slightly different-looking roster than the one we have right now, perhaps in ways that we don’t envision.”

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Milwaukee Brewers David Stearns

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