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Mets Sign Jose Ureña To Minor League Deal

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10:52am: Ureña’s deal has a $2MM base salary and another $750K available via incentives, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

8:20am: Veteran right-hander Jose Ureña popped up at Mets camp this morning and tells Newsday’s Tim Healey that he’s signed a minor league deal with the club. He’ll join their big league camp for the remainder of spring training. Ureña is repped by Premier Talent Sports & Entertainment.

The 33-year-old Ureña adds some non-roster depth to a Mets rotation that’s already been hit by a pair of spring injuries. Left-hander Sean Manaea has an oblique strain that’ll likely prompt a season-opening IL stint, though he could return by mid-April. Right-hander Frankie Montas has a more significant injury — a lat strain that’s shut him down from throwing for more than a month. He’s likely looking at a mid-May return in a best-case scenario.

Ureña spent the 2024 season with the Rangers, working primarily out of the bullpen but also making nine starts over the course of the season. He totaled 109 innings with a solid 3.80 earned run average, though not all of his numbers looked quite so sharp.

Ureña’s 15.1% strikeout rate was among the lowest in the league, and his 8.4% walk rate was roughly average. He notched a strong 50.1% ground-ball rate and kept the ball in the yard nicely enough (1.07 HR/9), but metrics like FIP (4.62) and SIERA (4.66) felt like he had a fair bit of good fortune to reach that more impressive ERA mark. Ureña’s .273 average on balls in play was a bit shy of the .289 mark he carried into the season, and his 75% strand rate was also higher than both league average (72%) and his career mark prior to 2024 (69.5%).

On the whole, Ureña has a 4.76 ERA in 948 1/3 big league innings. He had some stretches early in his career where he delivered solid midrotation results for the Marlins but has since been hit hard more often than not as he’s moved into journeyman status. His solid 2024 run in Texas was the first time since 2018 that he’s posted an ERA south of 5.00.

Ureña isn’t going to jump right into the Mets’ pitching plans, but there’s also little harm in seeing if a veteran arm coming of a nice rebound effort can sustain some of his production — especially early on while the rest of the pitching staff is a bit banged up. Even with Montas and Manaea ailing, the Mets have signaled they plan to stick with in-house arms, by and large. Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Clay Holmes, Paul Blackburn, Griffin Canning and Tylor Megill give the Mets six experienced arms on which to rely. Top prospect Brandon Sproat could join the mix midseason.

As such, if Ureña is to make the club, it’d likely be as a swingman — but it’s equally or more likely that he’ll opt back into the market if he doesn’t make the club. As an Article XX(b) free agent (i.e. six-plus years MLB service, finished the prior season on a major league roster/injured list), Ureña will have a trio of uniform opt-out dates on his contract: five days before the season (March 22), May 1 and June 1.

The Opener: Team Debuts, Rotation Battles, Reds

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As Spring Training continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Pitchers making their team debut today:

It’s still the early days of spring, which means a number of players have not yet gotten into a game so far. As more players start making their first appearances, fans will continue to get their first looks at offseason acquisitions in their new settings. Today, perhaps the most notable among these is right-hander Luis Severino’s first appearance as an Athletic after he signed the largest free agent deal in franchise history back in December. Severino is slated to start the club’s 1:05pm MT game against the Padres, who will be countering with knuckleballer Matt Waldron.

Over in Florida, meanwhile, right-hander Cal Quantrill will make his on-mound debut for the Marlins at 1:05pm ET opposite the Cardinals and Andre Pallante. At that same time, Jack Flaherty will be kicking off his return to the Tigers with his first appearance for the club since being traded to the Dodgers over the summer. Flaherty will face Quinn Priester and the Red Sox. Coincidentally, the Tigers have announced that shortstop Trey Sweeney (who the club acquired from L.A. in exchange for Flaherty over the summer) will be batting leadoff in this afternoon’s game.

2. Pitchers battling for rotation spots:

Aside from the offseason acquisitions fans will be able to see pitch for their club for the first time today, a number of back-of-the-rotation pieces around the league are looking to make their case for an Opening Day rotation spot with their club. That group includes Waldron and Priester, both of whom are on the periphery of the fifth starter conversation in San Diego and Boston respectively.

Beyond those two aforementioned names, Landon Knack of the Dodgers (1:10pm MT vs Colorado), Jordan Wicks of the Cubs (1:05pm MT vs Anaheim), Matt Manning of the Tigers (1:05pm ET vs Tampa), Graham Ashcraft of the Reds (1:05pm MT vs Arizona), and Bryce Elder of the Braves (6:05pm ET vs Washington) are all scheduled to start games today as they look to muscle their way ahead of the competition for a vacant fifth starter job. None of these players are currently considered to be a favorite, with Waldron having perhaps the cleanest path to an Opening Day rotation job of the group, but a strong performance this spring could help these hurlers get noticed as they jockey for positioning on their club’s rotation depth chart.

3. Reds in the market for pitching depth:

The Reds have had a fairly busy offseason, which they kicked off by bringing in future Hall of Fame manager Terry Francona. They’ve swung trades for Jose Trevino, Brady Singer, Taylor Rogers, and Gavin Lux since then while also bringing back Nick Martinez on the Qualifying Offer and signing Austin Hays to patrol the outfield. It’s possible they aren’t done yet, however, as reporting yesterday suggested that the club hopes to add another depth option to its rotation mix.

That’s understandable given the slow starts to the spring for lefty Andrew Abbott and prospect Rhett Lowder, particularly given the fact that non-roster veteran Wade Miley won’t be ready until May as he rehabs Tommy John surgery. Jose Quintana, Kyle Gibson, and Spencer Turnbull are all pitchers that seem likely to score big league deals even at this late stage of the offseason, while potential candidates for non-roster deals include Alex Wood, and Marco Gonzales.

MLB Mailbag: Nationals, Painter, Royals, Yankees, Mets

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Today's mailbag gets into the Nationals' offseason approach, the accuracy of preseason win projections, what Andrew Painter will do this year, the Royals' outfield, how small market teams can compete, the Yankees' third base situation, the Mets' rotation, and more.

Steve asks:

The Nationals have now spent over $50 million in this offseason on new acquisitions. Do you like their strategy of building depth with upside players with lower $ risk per player to keep the books clean for the coming years?

OTOH, they could have gone all in and met Bregman's rumored price of $210 million over 7 years, and had enough money for Nathaniel Lowe and Ogasawara and adding Finnegan, Lopez and Poche for their bullpen and skipped signing Sims for the bullpen and Bell for DH.

Which route do you like better?

Just to review, the Nationals added Trevor Williams, Mike Soroka, Kyle Finnegan, Josh Bell, Shinnosuke Ogasawara, Jorge Lopez, Lucas Sims, Amed Rosario, and Paul DeJong in free agency at a 2025 AAV cost of $38.75MM.  They also traded for Nathaniel Lowe, who is earning $10.3MM this year.

Despite adding $49MM in total '25 AAV, the team's CBT payroll is only $138MM.  The question is whether 2025 is/was the time for this team to pounce.  Owner Mark Lerner doesn't think so, based on comments made to Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post.  Referencing GM Mike Rizzo, here's what Lerner said to Svrluga:

“When Mike calls me in and says, ‘We really need to think about it,’ for next winter, we’ll talk about it,” Lerner said. “Right now, he doesn’t think — and I agree with him: There’s no point in getting a superstar and paying him hundreds of millions of dollars to win two or three more games. You’ve got to wait until — like Jayson. Jayson was right on the cusp of [the team] being really good, and it took us to the next level. That’s the ideal situation. It’s always on our mind.”  He paused. “You could get nauseous thinking about it,” he said, laughing.

Despite the additions, FanGraphs projects the Nationals for only 73 wins this year.  And even though - as I'll show later in the mailbag - teams sometimes outplay their projection by a dozen wins, that still might not be enough for a wild card.

The Nationals have three suspect lineup spots: Bell at DH, Keibert Ruiz at catcher, and Jose Tena/DeJong/Rosario at third base.  Bregman alone doesn't make this team a likely contender, and he turns 31 in March.  I don't think he fit as the team's Jayson Werth move.  I doubt Nolan Arenado would've accepted a trade to D.C., and he doesn't sense for this team anyway.

The Nats still owe $40MM to Ruiz and have a few catching prospects in the pipeline, so I can see why they didn't do anything there.  Likewise, adding a bigger bat than Bell might mean 74 or 75 wins instead of 73.

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Who Else Could The A’s Look To Extend?

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Last week, Evan Drellich of The Athletic reported that the A's had opened extension negotiations with outfielder Lawrence Butler. General manager David Forst declined comment on Butler specifically but implied that he's not the only player with whom they've had discussions.

"We’ve had conversations with a couple other players other than (already-extended DH Brent Rooker), and those talks are ongoing," Forst told Drellich. "It is an important thing for us to lock guys up (heading) into Las Vegas and make sure that we keep the core of what we think is a really good young team together, ongoing."

MLBTR covered Butler's extension candidacy at the time of Drellich's report. With Forst's comments in mind, it's worth taking a speculative look at who else the A's may try to sign over the next few weeks.

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BENEFITS
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  • Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
  • Remove ads and support our writers.
  • Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker

MLBTR Podcast: Atlanta’s Pitching Depth, Iglesias, Jobe, Castillo, And More!

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors for a mailbag episode. We spent the entire show answering questions from listeners, including…

  • Can the Braves seriously go into the season with this rotation depth? (1:50)
  • Could the Braves add to the bullpen before the season starts? (9:25)
  • Why is David Robertson not signed? (13:00)
  • Could the Mets and Jose Iglesias reunite on a one-year, $5MM deal with a vesting option? (17:10)
  • Should the Cubs have signed Jose Iglesias instead of Justin Turner? (24:35)
  • Could there be a battle forming for the final rotation spots for the Tigers between Casey Mize, Kenta Maeda and Jackson Jobe? (30:35)
  • Are the Mariners waiting for a pitching injury on another team to trade Luis Castillo? (38:05)
  • When a team like the Dodgers does significant deferrals, what year’s payroll does the money go on? (43:50)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Royals Notes: Erceg, Massey, Blanco

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Lucas Erceg got his first legitimate run as a closer after the Royals acquired him from the A’s at last year’s deadline. The flamethrowing righty took to that role, working to a 2.88 earned run average while striking out 32% of opponents over 25 regular season innings. Erceg recorded 11 saves and six holds while only surrendering two leads. He went 3-3 on postseason save opportunities while tossing six innings of two-run ball in his first playoff action.

Despite Erceg’s excellent finish, the Royals made a significant move at the back of their bullpen this winter. They signed All-Star righty Carlos Estévez to a two-year, $22MM free agent deal. That appeared to be a fallback after the Royals missed in a couple bigger swings at an outfield acquisition. Estévez has been a closer between the Angels and Phillies over the past two seasons. His 57 saves since the start of 2023 ranks ninth in MLB.

The Royals haven’t made an official decision about who’ll take the ninth inning this year. It doesn’t seem there’ll be any animosity on Erceg’s part if the team defers to Estévez’s experience. “I don’t really care what my role is going to be,” Erceg told Anne Rogers of MLB.com. He praised GM J.J. Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro for giving him a heads-up that the organization was closing in on a deal with Estévez before the signing was announced. Erceg said his primary focus is on helping K.C. return to the postseason whether as a closer or in a leverage role in the seventh and eighth innings.

Kansas City has thrown a decent amount of resources at fixing a bullpen that was a major weakness in the first half of last season. They acquired Hunter Harvey from the Nationals last summer, but a back injury essentially tanked his second half. Harvey has battled myriad injuries over his career, but he’s currently healthy and ticketed for a setup role. Erceg could join him as a bridge to Estévez at the back end. They’re still a little light from the left side. Angel Zerpa and Sam Long are coming off productive seasons but don’t have huge bat-missing upside. It’s nevertheless a far stronger group than they carried into 2024.

Along with Estévez, Jonathan India was Kansas City’s other significant offseason acquisition. He’ll slot atop the lineup while potentially moving around the diamond defensively. Both India and incumbent second baseman Michael Massey are likely to get reps at third base and in left field in addition to their work at the keystone. They’ve each gotten starts in left field and at second base in the first week of camp, with India picking up an appearance at third base as well. Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star writes that they’re likely to continue alternating positions every few games this spring.

In one injury development, depth outfielder Dairon Blanco has been sidelined by soreness in his right Achilles. An MRI this week revealed calcification in the tendon, Quatraro told reporters (via the MLB.com injury tracker). That’ll shut Blanco down for a few days but shouldn’t be a major concern. The speedster stole 31 bases in 38 attempts over 88 games last season.

This Date In Transactions History: Nolan Arenado’s 2019 Extension

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Today marks six years since the signing of the largest contract in Rockies history. On February 26, 2019, Colorado signed Nolan Arenado to a seven-year extension that guaranteed $234MM. It kept the star third baseman from reaching the open market the following offseason. The franchise-record deal also included a full no-trade clause and the right to opt out after the 2021 season.

It looked to cement the defensive stalwart as the face of the franchise for the upcoming decade. Arenado was coming off his fourth consecutive finish among the top 10 in MVP balloting. He’d landed in the top five three years running. Over the preceding four seasons, Arenado was sixth among position players in FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement — trailing Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Jose Altuve, Kris Bryant and Francisco Lindor. The Rockies had made the playoffs in consecutive seasons and were coming off a 91-win campaign that included a Wild Card game victory over the Cubs.

A relatively small-market franchise extending a player of that caliber one year from free agency was cause for excitement among Colorado fans. That optimism was dashed as the relationship went south incredibly quickly. Arenado had arguably the best season of his career in year one, hitting .315/.379/.583 with 41 homers to earn a sixth-place MVP finish. Yet the team won 20 fewer games than they had in ’18, kicking off an ongoing stretch of at least six straight losing seasons.

By the following offseason, a rift had emerged between Arenado and then-GM Jeff Bridich. Arenado was reportedly displeased with Colorado’s lack of moves to put a competitive roster around him. He was the subject of trade rumors by the 2019-20 offseason. Bridich publicly shot down trade possibilities that winter. Arenado remained in Colorado for the shortened season. It was an underwhelming year for player and team alike that did nothing to improve the relationship.

Two years after signing the extension, the Rockies found themselves attempting to offload as much money as possible owed to their disgruntled star. It wasn’t an easy contract to move. The no-trade gave Arenado the ability to pick his destination. The deal contained six years and $199MM in remaining guarantees with the potential for Arenado to opt out after one season.

The trade Colorado found was a disappointment even in that context. The Cardinals landed Arenado that February for a five-player return led by back-end starter Austin Gomber. He’s a capable fifth starter. None of the other four players — Elehuris Montero, Mateo Gil, Jake Sommers and Tony Locey — remain in the organization. Montero is the only member of that group who even reached the majors and he was a sub-replacement performer.

Colorado kicked in $51MM to facilitate the deal, while Arenado agreed to a restructured contract that deferred part of his 2022-26 salaries while adding a $15MM salary for 2027. Bridich was out as GM three months later. One year after dumping $148MM of the Arenado contract, the Rox signed Bryant to his ill-fated $182MM free agent deal.

The sequence served as a precursor to this winter’s series of trade rumors. Arenado played at a superstar level for his first two seasons in St. Louis, helping the team to consecutive playoff berths. His production over the past two years has been more solid than exceptional. The Cards have missed the playoffs in both and are looking more toward the future than short-term contention. They spent all offseason trying to move Arenado to a contender while moving most of the remaining money. The no-trade clause again allowed him to be particular regarding the teams to which he’d approve a deal.

After he famously nixed a move to the Astros in December, Arenado is expected to play what’ll be his fifth season in St. Louis. He’s into the final two seasons of the deal he’d initially signed with Colorado. He’s due $32MM and $27MM respectively over the next two years, though he agreed to defer $6MM annually to facilitate the trade to St. Louis. The Rockies are still paying down $5MM in each of those seasons. St. Louis is fully responsible for the tacked-on $15MM salary in ’27, which is not deferred.

Padres Re-Sign Reiss Knehr To Minor League Deal

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Right-hander Reiss Knehr and the Padres have reunited on a minor league deal, as first reported by Mad Friars. It’s unclear if the ACES client will be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee or if he’ll head to minor league camp.

Knehr, 28, missed the 2024 season. He underwent Tommy John surgery in the previous summer. The Padres outrighted him off their 40-man roster at the end of the 2023 season. He spent the entire 2024 campaign on the injured list for Triple-A El Paso, then became a free agent at season’s end.

Prior to that lengthy layoff, he was a depth arm for the Friars. He spent the 2021 through 2023 seasons getting frequently optioned to El Paso and back. Over those three years, he tossed 48 1/3 innings in the majors, allowing 5.96 earned runs per nine. His 15.5% strikeout rate and 13.2% walk rate were both subpar figures. That was mostly relief work, with a few “starts” lasting a few innings, topping out at four frames.

As one would expect, his minor league work was more interesting. In 2021, he tossed 75 2/3 innings on the farm over 16 starts and three relief appearances. He had a 3.57 ERA, 21.5% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate. In 2022, he posted a dismal 6.88 ERA in a swing role at the Triple-A level, but got back on track the following year. In 2023, he tossed 36 2/3 innings for El Paso, almost exclusively in relief. His only start lasted just three innings. He had a 3.93 ERA for the Chihuahuas, pairing a 27.3% strikeout rate with a 7.3% walk rate.

With those intriguing Triple-A numbers in 2023 and a lost season in 2024, perhaps the Friars will keep him in a relief role from now on. If he shows some health and effectiveness, he will provide the club with a bit of extra non-roster depth. If his contract is selected, he is now out of options but he has barely a year of service time.

Twins, Brady Feigl Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Twins are in agreement with reliever Brady Feigl on a minor league contract, as reflected on the MLB.com transaction log. He’ll head to Triple-A St. Paul to begin the season.

Feigl, who turned 34 in December, has pitched professionally for over a decade. He spent time in the Atlanta and Texas farm systems without getting to the majors. Feigl logged a couple years in independent ball and pitched well enough to secure a minor league deal with the Pirates last winter. The 6’4″ southpaw was rewarded for his perseverance with an MLB call last August. He made his debut and pitched in mop-up work against the Cubs, surrendering six runs in 1 2/3 innings.

Pittsburgh designated Feigl for assignment after that lone appearance. They ran him through outright waivers and kept him in Triple-A until he elected minor league free agency at season’s end. While his debut didn’t go as hoped, he had a nice year in the upper minors. Feigl pitched 60 innings of 4.05 ERA ball with a 27.5% strikeout rate. He has a 3.27 ERA across 124 Triple-A frames over parts of four seasons.

On The Future Of The Blue Jays

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A lot can change in a year for a baseball team. Around this time in 2024, FanGraphs gave the Tigers a 28.9% chance of making the playoffs and had the Cardinals as the favorites to win the National League Central.

Detroit had a middling first half and sold at the deadline, trading Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers for prospects. They surged to the playoffs without Flaherty, then re-signed him this winter and now enter 2025 as clear contenders. The Cardinals kept their hopes alive through most of 2024, acquiring Erick Fedde, Tommy Pham and Shawn Armstrong at the deadline. But when that fell short, they decided to hit the reset button and don’t seem to be planning to compete anytime soon. Even their offseason reboot plans were scuttled, with various players using their no-trade clauses to block deals the front office surely hoped to make.

Going into 2025, the Blue Jays are perhaps the club with the widest spectrum of possible outcomes. On the one hand, a lot of the roster is the same club that played at a pretty consistent 90-win pace over the 2020-23 period. They had an injury-marred season in 2024 but bolstered the roster in the winter in an attempt to return to contention in 2025. With the expanded playoffs, getting back into the mix this year is entirely possible.

The American League East seems wide open. The FanGraphs Projected Standings have all five clubs with a 35-71% chance of getting a postseason spot, with the Jays at 38.3%. The PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are somewhat similar, with the Jays at 48.5% and no club higher than 72.3%. For the entire American League, both projection systems have 12 clubs in the 19-71% range, with only the Angels, Athletics and White Sox lower than that.

The other side of the coin is well known at this point. The club is losing its grip on several of its key players. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the most notable, as he’s an impending free agent that the club hasn’t been able to sign to a long-term deal. The same is true of Bo Bichette, the club’s other longtime core piece. Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, Chad Green and Erik Swanson are also slated for the open market this fall. George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Yimi García, Daulton Varsho and Alejandro Kirk are on pace to be free agents after 2026. José Berríos can join that latter group by opting out of the final two years of his deal. All could be trade candidates this summer if things aren’t going well.

That situation extends beyond the roster. President Mark Shapiro is reportedly going into the final year of his contract. General manager Ross Atkins is reportedly only signed through 2026. Manager John Schneider is signed through 2025 with a club option for 2026. Around the baseball world, there is an expectation that a poor season will lead to significant changes. If the Jays are bad again in 2025, no one would really be shocked if Shapiro, Atkins and Schneider are all gone.

Even if the team does manage to put together a good season in 2025, there will be questions to be answered about the future. As mentioned, several players are set to qualify for free agency in this coming winter or the one after that.

Whether they can replace some of those players internally is tough to say. Industry evaluations of the system as a whole are not strong. Baseball America ranks the farm system 23rd in the league. Keith Law of The Athletic and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN recently put them 24th.

That’s not necessarily shocking, as the club has been putting a priority on the big league roster lately. Bassitt and Springer had rejected qualifying offers, so the Jays had to give up a draft pick for each of those deals. The same is true of the upcoming draft, as Anthony Santander also rejected a QO.

Of the club’s five first-round picks from 2018 to 2022, they eventually traded three. They sent Jordan Groshans to the Marlins in the Anthony Bass/Zach Pop deal, Austin Martin to the Twins in the Berríos trade and Gunnar Hoglund to the Athletics in the Matt Chapman trade. The other two, Alek Manoah and Brandon Barriera, are both recovering from Tommy John surgery right now. Other notable prospects like Ricky Tiedemann and Landen Maroudis are also working back from TJS.

That has left the club with a clear lack in top-end talent. Baseball America has just one Jay on their top 100, with Tiedemann having literally the last spot. The lists from FanGraphs, ESPN, MLB Pipeline and Law all have two or three Jays on them but no one in the top 60.

A person looking for optimism could focus on the volume of guys who are either borderline top 100 guys or just outside of that designation. In addition to their recent top 100 list, Baseball America also released a list of every player who received at least one vote from one of their writers. They build their top 100 by having several contributors submit a top 150 ranking, then use a points system to combine those different lists.

As mentioned, the Jays ultimately only got one guy on there with Tiedemann taking the final spot, but he was one of seven different players to receive a vote. That means that at least one BA staffer considered Jake Bloss, Arjun Nimmala, Alan Roden, Josh Kasevich, Orelvis Martínez or Trey Yesavage to be a borderline top 100 guy. Some of those guys appeared on the other linked top 100 lists. Only one club had more than 11 players on that vote-getter list from BA, while some clubs had as few as three.

The volume of the Jays’ system also appeared to show up at ZiPS, the projection system from Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs. ZiPS had five guys on the top 100, six guys in the top 200 and 20 in the top 500. In that latter category, only three clubs were ahead of the Jays. The Rays had 24, with the Reds and White Sox at 21.

This quantity-over-quality assessment probably aligns with the observations of anyone earnestly following the club. They have an army of guys who are not really considered top prospects but seem perhaps capable of being major leaguers in the near future. This includes guys like Will Wagner, Joey Loperfido, Jonatan Clase, Charles McAdoo, RJ Schreck, Adam Macko and Lazaro Estrada. They also have some guys who are no longer prospects and aren’t fully established but still have some future potential, such as Bowden Francis, Davis Schneider, Nathan Lukes, Leo Jiménez and Addison Barger.

Perhaps a few nice developments in there could make the future look a little better. But even if that comes to pass, there will still be the unanswered question of the club’s star power. The club’s attempts to sign players like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and others have come up just short. As mentioned, their overtures to Guerrero haven’t worked.

The one benefit of all those misses, and the large slate of impending free agents, is that the future payroll is fairly clean. By 2028, only Santander, Berríos, Andrés Giménez and Yariel Rodríguez will be guaranteed deals. Berríos has an opt-out after 2026. Santander and Rodríguez can opt-out after 2027, though the club can void those opt-outs by triggering club options. The Giménez deal is guaranteed through 2029 with a club option for 2030.

Though Guerrero hasn’t signed a long-term deal yet, he did leave the door open to consider a future offer if the club circled back to him. It’s also possible that he could reach free agency and re-sign, the same way that star players like Aaron Judge and Pete Alonso re-signed with the Yankees and Mets respectively. The Jays could also pivot to some other notable free agent next winter, such as Kyle Tucker, Munetaka Murakami, Dylan Cease or Zac Gallen.

While starting this piece, I considered using cliches like “shifting sands”, “fog of war”, “up in the air”, “multiverse” or “over the horizon” in the title. The point I was hoping to make is that there’s almost nothing that can be known about the Jays right now. It’s entirely plausible that they’re good this year, but also just as possible that they’re bad. Making the playoffs is totally within reason, but everyone could be traded and everyone could be fired. They could see a few of their many young guys step up and cement themselves as future pieces, offsetting the upcoming free agent departures. The system could look barren as they kick off a yearslong rebuild. They could sign a franchise-altering mega contract or they could not.

Many fans have already made up their minds about the Blue Jays but it seems like everything will be on the line this year with so much to be determined. Regardless of the outcomes, it should be interesting.

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