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Twins, Brady Feigl Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Twins are in agreement with reliever Brady Feigl on a minor league contract, as reflected on the MLB.com transaction log. He’ll head to Triple-A St. Paul to begin the season.

Feigl, who turned 34 in December, has pitched professionally for over a decade. He spent time in the Atlanta and Texas farm systems without getting to the majors. Feigl logged a couple years in independent ball and pitched well enough to secure a minor league deal with the Pirates last winter. The 6’4″ southpaw was rewarded for his perseverance with an MLB call last August. He made his debut and pitched in mop-up work against the Cubs, surrendering six runs in 1 2/3 innings.

Pittsburgh designated Feigl for assignment after that lone appearance. They ran him through outright waivers and kept him in Triple-A until he elected minor league free agency at season’s end. While his debut didn’t go as hoped, he had a nice year in the upper minors. Feigl pitched 60 innings of 4.05 ERA ball with a 27.5% strikeout rate. He has a 3.27 ERA across 124 Triple-A frames over parts of four seasons.

On The Future Of The Blue Jays

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A lot can change in a year for a baseball team. Around this time in 2024, FanGraphs gave the Tigers a 28.9% chance of making the playoffs and had the Cardinals as the favorites to win the National League Central.

Detroit had a middling first half and sold at the deadline, trading Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers for prospects. They surged to the playoffs without Flaherty, then re-signed him this winter and now enter 2025 as clear contenders. The Cardinals kept their hopes alive through most of 2024, acquiring Erick Fedde, Tommy Pham and Shawn Armstrong at the deadline. But when that fell short, they decided to hit the reset button and don’t seem to be planning to compete anytime soon. Even their offseason reboot plans were scuttled, with various players using their no-trade clauses to block deals the front office surely hoped to make.

Going into 2025, the Blue Jays are perhaps the club with the widest spectrum of possible outcomes. On the one hand, a lot of the roster is the same club that played at a pretty consistent 90-win pace over the 2020-23 period. They had an injury-marred season in 2024 but bolstered the roster in the winter in an attempt to return to contention in 2025. With the expanded playoffs, getting back into the mix this year is entirely possible.

The American League East seems wide open. The FanGraphs Projected Standings have all five clubs with a 35-71% chance of getting a postseason spot, with the Jays at 38.3%. The PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are somewhat similar, with the Jays at 48.5% and no club higher than 72.3%. For the entire American League, both projection systems have 12 clubs in the 19-71% range, with only the Angels, Athletics and White Sox lower than that.

The other side of the coin is well known at this point. The club is losing its grip on several of its key players. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the most notable, as he’s an impending free agent that the club hasn’t been able to sign to a long-term deal. The same is true of Bo Bichette, the club’s other longtime core piece. Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, Chad Green and Erik Swanson are also slated for the open market this fall. George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Yimi García, Daulton Varsho and Alejandro Kirk are on pace to be free agents after 2026. José Berríos can join that latter group by opting out of the final two years of his deal. All could be trade candidates this summer if things aren’t going well.

That situation extends beyond the roster. President Mark Shapiro is reportedly going into the final year of his contract. General manager Ross Atkins is reportedly only signed through 2026. Manager John Schneider is signed through 2025 with a club option for 2026. Around the baseball world, there is an expectation that a poor season will lead to significant changes. If the Jays are bad again in 2025, no one would really be shocked if Shapiro, Atkins and Schneider are all gone.

Even if the team does manage to put together a good season in 2025, there will be questions to be answered about the future. As mentioned, several players are set to qualify for free agency in this coming winter or the one after that.

Whether they can replace some of those players internally is tough to say. Industry evaluations of the system as a whole are not strong. Baseball America ranks the farm system 23rd in the league. Keith Law of The Athletic and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN recently put them 24th.

That’s not necessarily shocking, as the club has been putting a priority on the big league roster lately. Bassitt and Springer had rejected qualifying offers, so the Jays had to give up a draft pick for each of those deals. The same is true of the upcoming draft, as Anthony Santander also rejected a QO.

Of the club’s five first-round picks from 2018 to 2022, they eventually traded three. They sent Jordan Groshans to the Marlins in the Anthony Bass/Zach Pop deal, Austin Martin to the Twins in the Berríos trade and Gunnar Hoglund to the Athletics in the Matt Chapman trade. The other two, Alek Manoah and Brandon Barriera, are both recovering from Tommy John surgery right now. Other notable prospects like Ricky Tiedemann and Landen Maroudis are also working back from TJS.

That has left the club with a clear lack in top-end talent. Baseball America has just one Jay on their top 100, with Tiedemann having literally the last spot. The lists from FanGraphs, ESPN, MLB Pipeline and Law all have two or three Jays on them but no one in the top 60.

A person looking for optimism could focus on the volume of guys who are either borderline top 100 guys or just outside of that designation. In addition to their recent top 100 list, Baseball America also released a list of every player who received at least one vote from one of their writers. They build their top 100 by having several contributors submit a top 150 ranking, then use a points system to combine those different lists.

As mentioned, the Jays ultimately only got one guy on there with Tiedemann taking the final spot, but he was one of seven different players to receive a vote. That means that at least one BA staffer considered Jake Bloss, Arjun Nimmala, Alan Roden, Josh Kasevich, Orelvis Martínez or Trey Yesavage to be a borderline top 100 guy. Some of those guys appeared on the other linked top 100 lists. Only one club had more than 11 players on that vote-getter list from BA, while some clubs had as few as three.

The volume of the Jays’ system also appeared to show up at ZiPS, the projection system from Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs. ZiPS had five guys on the top 100, six guys in the top 200 and 20 in the top 500. In that latter category, only three clubs were ahead of the Jays. The Rays had 24, with the Reds and White Sox at 21.

This quantity-over-quality assessment probably aligns with the observations of anyone earnestly following the club. They have an army of guys who are not really considered top prospects but seem perhaps capable of being major leaguers in the near future. This includes guys like Will Wagner, Joey Loperfido, Jonatan Clase, Charles McAdoo, RJ Schreck, Adam Macko and Lazaro Estrada. They also have some guys who are no longer prospects and aren’t fully established but still have some future potential, such as Bowden Francis, Davis Schneider, Nathan Lukes, Leo Jiménez and Addison Barger.

Perhaps a few nice developments in there could make the future look a little better. But even if that comes to pass, there will still be the unanswered question of the club’s star power. The club’s attempts to sign players like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and others have come up just short. As mentioned, their overtures to Guerrero haven’t worked.

The one benefit of all those misses, and the large slate of impending free agents, is that the future payroll is fairly clean. By 2028, only Santander, Berríos, Andrés Giménez and Yariel Rodríguez will be guaranteed deals. Berríos has an opt-out after 2026. Santander and Rodríguez can opt-out after 2027, though the club can void those opt-outs by triggering club options. The Giménez deal is guaranteed through 2029 with a club option for 2030.

Though Guerrero hasn’t signed a long-term deal yet, he did leave the door open to consider a future offer if the club circled back to him. It’s also possible that he could reach free agency and re-sign, the same way that star players like Aaron Judge and Pete Alonso re-signed with the Yankees and Mets respectively. The Jays could also pivot to some other notable free agent next winter, such as Kyle Tucker, Munetaka Murakami, Dylan Cease or Zac Gallen.

While starting this piece, I considered using cliches like “shifting sands”, “fog of war”, “up in the air”, “multiverse” or “over the horizon” in the title. The point I was hoping to make is that there’s almost nothing that can be known about the Jays right now. It’s entirely plausible that they’re good this year, but also just as possible that they’re bad. Making the playoffs is totally within reason, but everyone could be traded and everyone could be fired. They could see a few of their many young guys step up and cement themselves as future pieces, offsetting the upcoming free agent departures. The system could look barren as they kick off a yearslong rebuild. They could sign a franchise-altering mega contract or they could not.

Many fans have already made up their minds about the Blue Jays but it seems like everything will be on the line this year with so much to be determined. Regardless of the outcomes, it should be interesting.

The D-backs’ Closing Competition

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The Diamondbacks entered the offseason in search of a new first baseman, a closer and some right-handed thump in the lineup, among other items on the to-do list. They’ve broadly succeeded, acquiring Josh Naylor from the Guardians to replace free agent Christian Walker and re-signing Randal Grichuk. The Snakes haven’t found a slam-dunk closer, but they signed a new (co) ace, shocking the industry with their signing of Corbin Burnes for six years and $210MM.

While there’s still one marquee free agent reliever on the market — David Robertson has yet to sign — it appears increasingly likely that the Diamondbacks will largely go with the arms who are already in camp as they look to sort out the ninth inning. Arizona’s payroll is already projected for a franchise-record $195MM. That’s a new highwater mark by a measure of nearly $30MM. We can always adopt the “never say never” mentality as long as there are a few viable closing options on the free agent and trade markets, but the D-backs may already have their closer in house. At present, A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez appear to be the front-runners.

Puk, acquired at the deadline from the Marlins in exchange for young slugger Deyvison De Los Santos and outfielder Andrew Pintar, enjoyed a quietly dominant season in 2024. His cumulative 3.15 ERA looks more good than great, but it’s skewed by a failed experiment wherein the Marlins tried to stretch him back out as a starter early in the season. Puk was clobbered for 17 runs in 13 2/3 innings. He moved back to the bullpen, and from that point forth was arguably the best reliever in the sport.

After giving up 17 earned runs in his four starts, Puk only allowed 11 more earned runs for the entire season. He posted a 1.72 ERA out of the bullpen in 2024, fanning a colossal 35% of his opponents against a terrific 5.1% walk rate. Opponents averaged only 86.6 mph off the bat against him in that time with a middling 32.6% hard-hit rate. Per Statcast, only five of his opponents’ batted balls in that time were barreled. Puk allowed a run in his second appearance with the D-backs and then went on a run for the ages, rattling off 23 2/3 scoreless innings with a 38-to-4 K/BB ratio. He punched out 44.7% of opponents in that career-best run.

Martinez was nearly as dominant for the early portion of the 2024 season. The young flamethrower posted a 1.60 ERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate and mammoth 64.5% grounder rate in his first 50 innings of work. His exit velocity and hard-hit rate were nearly identical to Puk’s marks as a reliever. An 11.5% walk rate was in clear need of improvement, but for a 22-year-old who averaged better than 100 mph on both his four-seamer and sinker, it’s hard to draw up a more promising start.

That run of dominance didn’t last the full season, however. While Martinez remained a solid reliever, his 3.90 ERA over the final 27 2/3 innings of his season was far less eye-catching. The young righty’s strikeout rate actually ticked up during that span, perhaps due to roughly doubling the usage of his four-seamer at the expense of his sinker, but his grounder rate fell sharply. There was surely some poor fortune in play, as Martinez was hampered by a .388 BABIP during this stretch despite continuing to limit hard contact (and allowing only one home run).

Whether in the ninth inning or working in a setup capacity, both Puk and Martinez will be in high-leverage roles this season. They were two of the D-backs’ top five arms in terms of their average leverage index — but not the top two. Paul Sewald’s departure in free agency subtracted one of Arizona’s top leverage arms, but it was actually righty Ryan Thompson who found himself most frequently in high-leverage spots, followed by Martinez and then by fellow righty Kevin Ginkel.

The 32-year-old Thompson isn’t the prototypical power arm often associated with pressure-packed, late-inning situations. He’s a sidearming righty who averages just 91 mph on his sinker and 92.5 mph on his lesser-used four-seamer. Thompson’s 19.1% strikeout rate was well below the 23.4% league average among relievers. However, he boasts a 61% grounder rate, rarely issues walks (5.5%) and posted nearly identical results versus righties (.254/.299/.377) and lefties (.254/.293/.377). He picked up two saves and 24 holds.

Ginkel, 30, has quietly emerged as a key arm in Phoenix. He was never a top prospect and didn’t truly establish himself as a reliable reliever until his age-28 season, in 2022. Over the past three seasons, he’s tossed 164 2/3 innings with a 2.95 ERA. It’s not necessarily flashy, as Ginkel is more good-than-great in terms of strikeout rate (26.5%), walk rate (7.3%), swinging-strike rate (12.5%), ground-ball rate (47.1%) and fastball velocity (96 mph average) in that time. Even with the lack of one standout area in which he truly excels, his above-average rates across the board have made him a consistent and reliable late-inning option for manager Torey Lovullo.

Also entering the mix is 34-year-old Kendall Graveman, who signed a one-year, $1.35MM deal after missing the 2024 season due to shoulder surgery. With 24 saves and 56 holds from 2020-23, Graveman is no stranger to late-inning work. After moving to the bullpen in Sept. 2020 with the Mariners, Graveman rattled off 197 1/3 innings with a 2.78 ERA, 24% strikeout rate, 10.3% walk rate and 49.2% grounder rate. At his best, Graveman averaged better than 96 mph on his heater and offered a Ginkel-esque blend of above-average strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates while sitting around 96 mph with his main offering. Whether he can return to that form in the wake of last year’s shoulder surgery is an open question.

However it shakes out, the Snakes look to have a solid quintet of arms rounding out the late-inning group at Chase Field. Lefty Joe Mantiply offers a solid middle-inning complement who has picked up around 12 holds per year over the past four seasons. A starter who doesn’t make the rotation (e.g. Jordan Montgomery, Ryne Nelson) could hold down another spot. Bryce Jarvis, Kyle Nelson and non-roster candidates like Shelby Miller, Scott McGough, John Curtiss and Josh Winder (among others) will vie for what’s likely one open spot.

There’s enough left on both the trade and free agent markets that it’s not impossible to envision a change still impacting Lovullo’s bullpen composition. Signing Robertson might be too pricey, likely pushing the D-backs into $200MM+ payroll territory for the first time, but if GM Mike Hazen ultimately finds a trade partner for Montgomery, any savings could make Robertson feel likelier. The Padres have been open to offers on Robert Suarez. Trading within the division probably isn’t either team’s first choice, though. A Ryan Helsley trade before next offseason feels virtually inevitable but also seems likelier to happen in-season at this point.

In any bullpen, there’s almost always room for one more addition. But, if this is the group the D-backs take into the season, they can still feel good about an impressive breadth of experienced late-inning arms who have the makings of a strong overall unit.

The Other Outfielder The White Sox Would Love To Trade

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The White Sox are one of the few clubs in baseball firmly in rebuild mode. They went 81-81 in 2022, followed by a 61-101 showing the year after. Last year, they reached a historic low, setting a modern-day record with 121 losses.

In that time, they have been willing to trade any established big league player for prospects. At the 2023 deadline, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López, Jake Burger, Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly, Keynan Middleton and Kendall Graveman were sent out. Prior to the 2024 season, Dylan Cease, Aaron Bummer, Gregory Santos and others were flipped. At the most recent deadline, Michael Kopech, Erick Fedde, Tommy Pham, Eloy Jiménez, Paul DeJong and Tanner Banks packed their bags. This offseason, Garrett Crochet was the headliner.

There’s not much left to move at this point. Luis Robert Jr. is the big name still on the roster. Since he had an injury-marred 2024, the Sox have held him for now, hoping that a healthy and productive showing in 2025 will increase his trade value leading up to the deadline.

Whether a trade comes together or not, the Sox aren’t committed to Robert. He’s entering the final guaranteed season of his contract. There are $20MM club options for 2026 and 2027. Those give him more upside if he bounces back but the Sox will presumably decline the first of those if he has another wasted season.

The only player with a guaranteed contract beyond this year is Andrew Benintendi. His five-year, $75MM pact runs through 2027. The Sox would presumably love to trade him as well, as the first two years of that pact haven’t gone well. Last summer, it was reported that the Sox were shopping him. They also reportedly explored some scenarios where Benintendi and Crochet would be packaged together, though they wisely didn’t go down that path, which would have resulted in a lesser prospect package coming back for Crochet.

The Sox don’t really need to the cost savings. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they had a payroll near $200MM as of a couple of years ago. That was down to $123MM last year. RosterResource projects them to be at just $81MM in 2025. As mentioned, Benintendi is the only deal on the books after this year. He will make $16.5MM in both 2025 and 2026, followed by $14.5MM in 2027. That’s a total of $47.5MM over three years, or $15.83MM in terms of average annual value.

That’s not superstar money. Players like Joc Pederson, Anthony Santander, Michael Conforto, Tyler O’Neill, Gleyber Torres, Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar got AAVs in the $14-19MM range this winter. Those are mostly solid-but-flawed regulars, rather than stars.

Unfortunately, Benintendi hasn’t been near “solid-but-flawed” lately. Through the end of 2022, Benintendi had hit .279/.351/.431 for a 109 wRC+. In his first two years with the Sox, his line has been down at .246/.309/.374, which translates to a 90 wRC+. His defense has also taken a turn for the worse. Prior to coming to Chicago, Outs Above Average was already not a fan, giving Benintendi a grade of -16 for his career, but Defensive Runs Saved had him at +25. Over the past two years, he’s been worth -18 OAA and also -16 DRS.

Perhaps health played a bit of a role there. Benintendi spent some time on the injured list last year due to left achilles tendinitis. His 26.7 mile per hour sprint speed was the lowest of his career, so maybe that impacted his ability to run the ball down.

Regardless, it’s been a rough couple of years. Needless to say, Benintendi will need a big bounceback to have any trade value at all. Though it may look bleak now, there is actually a reason to have some hope, as Benintendi finished the 2024 season on a strong note.

His aforementioned IL stint for the achilles injury was from June 2 to June 12. At the time he landed on the IL, he had a brutal line of .195/.230/.284. After being reinstated, he hit .251/.326/.470 the rest of the way for a 124 wRC+. He hit 16 home runs in 322 plate appearances while also drawing walks at a 9.9% clip and striking out just 18.9% of the time. His .264 batting average on balls in play was actually below the .290 league average, so it wasn’t a product of batted ball luck.

It’s possible this was a fluke in another way. 16% of Benintendi’s fly balls left the yard in that stretch. That’s well above his 8.3% career rate and the 11.6% league average last year, despite his exit velocity and hard hit rate being near his previous levels. However, it’s also possible it came from a change in approach. In that hot finish in 2024, Benintendi pulled the ball at a 49.1% clip and also hit fly balls at a 43.9% rate. For his career, those numbers are just 36.6% and 38% respectively.

Whether that late-season surge was just a small-sample blip or a meaningful course correction remains to be seen. Like Robert, Benintendi’s trade value is at a low ebb and a big correction will be required for the Sox to be able to get anything in return. But if Benintendi can perform well to start 2025, it could then be legitimately framed as a year-long bounceback.

Given the aforementioned financial situation, the club should be willing to eat most or all of Benintendi’s deal. They aren’t a revenue-sharing club, so unlike the A’s or Marlins, they could bottom the payroll out without worrying about the possibility of an MLBPA grievance. Still, there are reasons for them to prioritize prospect returns as opposed to cost savings.

They aren’t likely to return to contention by 2027. Even if they do get good by then, Benintendi’s salary shouldn’t stand in the way of them making moves. Owners surely don’t love throwing money at a hopeless team, but the payroll will still be incredibly low in 2026 and 2027 even if the Sox are still paying Benintendi. If he is playing well this year, then perhaps a contending club with a tight payroll and/or competitive balance tax number would be enticed by the possibility of getting Benintendi at a low financial cost, giving up more prospect capital instead.

Robert will have much of the focus in 2025 and rightfully so. He has huge upside, having put together a borderline MVP performance in 2023. He will be one of the top deadline trade candidates if he gets anywhere near that. Benintendi won’t have as much of the spotlight but he will have his own chance to play his way into some attention. Though he’s been around for a while, he’s only 30 years old. His deal is underwater right now but isn’t atrocious by MLB standards. He’s had a rough couple of years but was legitimately good for the final three-plus months last year. Though he’s something of a forgotten man at this point, it’s possible he could play himself onto a contender over the next few months.

Reds Looking For Further Rotation Depth

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The Reds have bolstered their pitching staff in several ways this winter, making a qualifying offer to Nick Martinez (which the righty accepted), acquiring Brady Singer from the Royals and also bringing veteran southpaw Wade Miley back for a second stint as he finishes off the rehab from last April’s Tommy John surgery. Even with those additions, Cincinnati is still on the lookout for additional arms to add to its starting pitching mix, reports FanSided’s Robert Murray (video link). The club has been looking to bring someone in on a minor league deal/non-roster invite to camp, but Murray suggests big league deal for one of the remaining free agent arms is at least possible.

Both left-hander Andrew Abbott and top prospect Rhett Lowder are a bit behind schedule thus far in camp for the Reds. Abbott has been on a slower buildup after his 2024 season was truncated by a shoulder strain. Lowder had some elbow soreness pop up during his offseason throwing last month.

Neither Abbott nor Lowder is believed to be dealing with any kind of serious injury, but having a pair of rotation hopefuls behind schedule isn’t an ideal way to start camp. That’s especially true given the lengthy injury history of fellow starter Nick Lodolo, who dealt with shoulder troubles as a prospect before landing on the 60-day IL due to back and hamstring injuries in his first two MLB seasons in 2022-23. Lodolo avoided the 60-day IL in 2024 but was place on the 15-day IL on four occasions owing to calf, groin and finger injuries.

At present, the Reds’ rotation is fronted by Hunter Greene, with Singer, Martinez and Lodolo all but assured spots. Abbott would be the lead candidate for the other rotation spot if healthy by Opening Day; he posted 138 innings of 3.72 ERA ball last year, pushing his career totals to 247 1/3 innings with a 3.78 ERA, 22.4% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate. The 2021 second-rounder has started 46 games for the Reds over the past two seasons and generally looks to have solidified his place on the starting staff.

Other rotation candidates for the Reds include Graham Ashcraft, Carson Spiers and Lyon Richardson. All three are on the 40-man roster. Ashcraft has had rotation opportunities in three different big league seasons but hasn’t truly cemented himself as a starter in any of them. He’s also coming off a rough 2024 where he was limited to 77 1/3 big league frames due to pain in his right elbow. Spiers has a nice Triple-A track record, but the 27-year-old has been tagged for a 5.64 ERA in 103 2/3 MLB frames. Richardson has been torched in a much smaller MLB sample (18 runs in 17 1/3 innings) but posted decent results in Triple-A last year.

Connor Phillips is also on the 40-man roster, but he’s coming off an 8.01 ERA in 19 Triple-A starts during which he walked more than 15% of his opponents. Top prospect Chase Petty isn’t on the 40-man but held his own in the upper minors last year (4.20 ERA, 22.4 K%, 10.2 BB%). If he can continue at that pace or even improve upon it, he’ll probably make his debut at some point in 2025.

The free agent market has been largely picked over, but veterans Jose Quintana, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn and Spencer Turnbull are all unsigned. Old friends Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood are seeking rebound efforts and stand as potential NRI candidates.

Poll: Who Will Be The Cubs’ Fifth Starter?

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As Spring Training gets underway, teams routinely find themselves dealing with unfortunate surprise injuries that can force a change in plans. That may prove to have been the case for the Cubs when presumed fifth starter Javier Assad was diagnosed with an oblique issue at the outset of camp. Given that the strain Assad is reportedly suffering from is mild, he hasn’t been ruled out for Opening Day. With that being said, The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma discussed the club’s rotation outlook yesterday and suggested that the Cubs may not push Assad to be ready for Opening Day.

If Assad were to open the season on the injured list, that would leave the door wide open for another player to take that final rotation spot, and even if he’s healthy Assad seems to be less firmly locked into the rotation than Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, or Matthew Boyd. Fortunately for the Cubs, they have the starting pitching depth necessary to cover for Assad if he’s injured and consider other options even in the event that he’s healthy. Though they’ll only need two starting pitchers for their two-game set against the Dodgers in Tokyo that predates the normal start of the regular season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Cubs wanted to have a good idea of what their rotation was going to look like entering that first series of the year.

If he’s healthy, Assad remains easy to bet on for the job. After all, the right-hander delivered 29 solid starts for the Cubs in 2024, pitching to a 3.73 ERA in 147 innings of work. Those are fairly impressive numbers for a back-end starter, but it’s worth noting they also come with notable red flags: Assad wore down badly throughout the year after a hot start, with a 4.84 ERA from June onward and an ugly 6.86 ERA down the stretch in September last year. In addition to those deep struggles later in the season, the right-hander also posted lackluster peripherals with a 4.64 FIP, a strikeout rate of just 19.4%, and a hefty 9.9% walk rate. That’s one of the 10 worst seasons by K-BB% and one of the 15 worst seasons by FIP in all of baseball last year among pitchers with as many innings as Assad.

Should Assad’s combination of spring injuries and second-half struggles give the Cubs enough pause to turn to someone else on Opening Day, it’s possible that offseason addition Colin Rea could be the first to get the call. Rea, 34, signed with the Cubs last month on a one-year, $5MM pact. The righty had a brief stint with the Cubs during the shortened 2020 season, but spend the past two seasons in Milwaukee as a back-end starter for the Brewers. The right-hander posted a 4.40 ERA and 4.82 FIP in 58 appearances over the past two seasons, 42 of which were starts.

Rea posted a higher FIP (4.75) and a lower strikeout rate (18.9%) than even Assad did last year, but he made up for that gap in effectiveness with volume. Rea posted 167 2/3 innings of work for the Brewers last year between 27 starts and five relief appearances, and showed the ability to pitch deep into games as he did so with 19 starts lasting longer than five innings, 11 of which went at least six and five of which saw him pitch into the seventh inning. That ability to pitch into the seventh sets Rea apart from his competitors, as all of the other pitchers mentioned who started an MLB game in the majors last year combined for just two seven-inning starts in 2024. Rea is also notable as the only pitcher discussed here who is both already on the 40-man roster and cannot be optioned to the minor leagues, meaning he’s all but assured a spot in either the Opening Day rotation or bullpen so long as he’s healthy.

While Assad and Rea may be the frontrunners for the job, there are certainly other options worth considering. Chief among those may be right-hander Ben Brown, who stepped into a rotation role with the Cubs early last year and looked good doing so. Brown’s rookie campaign saw him post a 3.58 ERA and 3.11 FIP with an excellent 28.8% strikeout rate. Those are fantastic numbers for any pitcher, but it’s particularly impressive for a 24-year-old getting his feet wet in the majors for the first time.

Unfortunately, Brown’s debut season was limited to just 55 1/3 innings in total, as he was shut down in June due to what Sharma reports turned out to be an osteoma, which is a benign tumor made of bone growing on an existing piece of bone. Brown appears to be healthy and ready to go for the 2025 season and is likely the pitcher with the highest upside the Cubs could turn to for their final rotation job, but his lack of big league experience and long layoff could make the club hesitant to immediately plug him into the rotation.

Another legitimate contender for the role could be southpaw Jordan Wicks, the club’s first-rounder from the 2021 draft and a former top-100 prospect. Wicks has yet to find success at the big league level in 80 2/3 innings of work across 18 appearances (17 starts), with a 5.02 ERA and a nearly matching 5.05 FIP. Like Brown, Wicks also missed much of the 2024 season due to injuries which, in his case, consisted of forearm and oblique issues. That combination of big league struggles and injury history seem to suggest the 25-year-old might be best suited to start the season at Triple-A, but his peripheral numbers were quite strong last year before he got bit by the injury bug as demonstrated by his 25.9% strikeout rate against an 8.3% walk rate in five starts before hitting the IL for the first time.

The aforementioned quartet aren’t the only plausible options, but they’re by far the most likely. Top prospect Cade Horton is a potential front-of-the-rotation arm who would be an exciting addition to the club’s staff, but he suffered a lost season in 2024 due to a subscapularis strain and is all but certain to get more reps in at Triple-A before making the jump to the majors. Non-roster invitees Brad Keller and Chris Flexen are veteran depth pieces who have served as viable back-end starters in recent years, but Keller appears to be getting work in as a reliever this spring while Flexen offers a similar profile to Rea but with lesser results and no guaranteed contract. Nate Pearson was discussed as a potential starting option over the offseason but has success in relief with the Cubs last year pitched just one inning of relief in his first spring appearance.

Who do MLBTR readers think the Cubs will turn to in order to round out the rotation? Will Assad return healthy and effective from his oblique issue to lock down the role? Will the club prioritize Rea due to volume and roster considerations, or go with a higher-upside pitcher like Brown or perhaps Wicks? Have your say in the poll below:

Who will be the Cubs' fifth starter in the Opening Day rotation?
Colin Rea 27.57% (1,238 votes)
Javier Assad 25.84% (1,160 votes)
Ben Brown 22.87% (1,027 votes)
Jordan Wicks 16.12% (724 votes)
Someone Else 7.59% (341 votes)
Total Votes: 4,490

Salary Details For Several Minor League Deals

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Every offseason, the primary focus for baseball fans is on trades and free agent activity. Naturally, major league free agent signings garner the majority of the attention and generate the most buzz. Minor league signees come with less fanfare, typically with good reason. They tend to be older veterans who are looking to extend their playing careers or perhaps younger names looking to rebound from an injury or a disappointing showing the prior season (sometimes the prior few seasons).

As spring training progresses, we’re seeing an uptick in minor league signings. Free agents who’ve lingered on the market and felt their leverage in negotiations dry up begin to concede and accept non-guaranteed pacts to get to camp in hopes of winning a roster spot.

Salary details for minor league signees isn’t as prominently reported on as it is for players signing guaranteed big league deals. The Associated Press just published a list of free agent signings throughout the winter, including within salary details for a handful of (mostly) recent minor league signings. Many of the salaries reported by the AP were already known and reflected here at MLBTR, but the report does include more than two dozen previously unreported base salaries for players on minor league deals. Here’s a quick rundown (player salary links point back to prior MLBTR posts detailing that minor league signing):

Blue Jays: Jacob Barnes, RHP, $1.4MM | Ryan Yarbrough, LHP, $2MM

Braves: Curt Casali, C, $1.25MM | Buck Farmer, RHP, $1MM

Brewers: Manuel Margot, OF, $1.3MM | Mark Canha, 1B/OF, $1.4MM

Cubs: Brooks Kriske, RHP, $900K | Travis Jankowski, OF, $1.25MM | Chris Flexen, RHP, $1.5MM

Diamondbacks: Garrett Hampson, INF/OF, $1.5MM | Scott McGough, RHP, $1.25MM

Dodgers: Luis Garcia, RHP, $1.5MM

Giants: Lou Trivino, RHP, $1.5MM

Mariners: Shintaro Fujinami, RHP, $1.3MM | Trevor Gott, RHP, $1.35MM

Padres: Yuli Gurriel, 1B, $1.35MM ($100K higher than initially reported)

Rangers: Nick Ahmed, SS, $1.25MM | Jesse Chavez, RHP, $1.25MM | David Buchanan, RHP, $1.375MM | Kevin Pillar, OF, $1MM

Red Sox: Matt Moore, LHP, $2MM

Royals: Luke Maile, C, $2MM | Ross Stripling, RHP, $1.75MM

White Sox: Brandon Drury, INF/OF, $2MM | Mike Clevinger, RHP, $1.5MM

A few things bear emphasizing. First, this is clearly not a comprehensive list of minor league signings throughout the league — nor is it even a comprehensive list of the listed teams’ non-roster invitees to camp. Secondly, many of these sums are of little consequence to the team. They’re not even guaranteed, after all, and even if a player makes the Opening Day roster and earns the full slate of his minor league salary, most of these salaries aren’t going to carry significant payroll ramifications.

That’s not true across the board, though. For instance, the Rangers are fully intent on remaining under the $241MM luxury tax threshold. At present, RosterResource projects them at $235.7MM of luxury obligations. Opting to select the contract of Buchanan or Chavez rather than allocating those innings to pre-arbitration players who’s being paid at league-minimum levels (or a few thousand dollars north of it) would inch the Rangers’ CBT number forward. They’re not going to hit the tax line even in if they wind up adding multiple NRIs to the actual roster, but selecting their contracts will further narrow the resources president of baseball ops Chris Young will have at his disposal for midseason dealings.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, are effectively seated right at the tax threshold. RosterResource has them with $241.4MM of luxury considerations. Team president Sam Kennedy said after signing Alex Bregman that he expects his team will be a CBT payor in 2025. As things stand, the Sox could duck back under that threshold, but selecting the contract of Moore, Adam Ottavino (also $2MM) or another prominent NRI would further signal ownership’s willingness to return to luxury tax status for the first time since 2022.

There’s probably no getting back under the tax line for the Blue Jays, who currently have a $273.3MM CBT number. However, the front office would presumably like to avoid reaching $281MM in tax obligations, as that’s the point at which Toronto’s top pick in the 2026 draft would be dropped by ten spots. In-season trades will have more of an effect on their tax number than decisions on NRIs like Barnes, Yarbrough, Eric Lauer and others, but it bears mentioning that the Blue Jays are around $8MM shy of what many clubs consider to be the most detrimental impact of straying to deep into CBT waters.

How Will Reds Divide Third Base Playing Time?

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The infield was a big reason for the Reds’ disappointing 2024 season. Regarded as the club’s strength entering Spring Training, it thinned quickly when Matt McLain suffered a shoulder injury and Noelvi Marte was hit with a PED suspension. By the end of camp, the Reds needed to trade for utilityman Santiago Espinal to backfill depth.

Cincinnati infielders hit .243/.313/.409 last season, which ranked 20th in park-adjusted offense. That’s despite a superstar performance at shortstop from Elly De La Cruz. Their .236/.303/.384 slash from the other three infield spots placed fifth from the bottom by measure of wRC+. Only the White Sox, Pirates, Rockies and Angels got less out of those positions.

McLain is back and will be the everyday second baseman, which Cincinnati ensured with the Jonathan India/Brady Singer swap at the beginning of the offseason. De La Cruz is obviously locked in at shortstop. The corner infield is much more up in the air. Signing Austin Hays theoretically allows new manager Terry Francona to bring Spencer Steer back onto the dirt as his primary first baseman. That decision may depend on who’s playing the hot corner, which is arguably the key question for the Reds to sort out this spring.

Jeimer Candelario was the unquestioned starter this time a year ago. Cincinnati inked the switch-hitter to a three-year, $45MM free agent deal. He was coming off a .251/.336/.471 showing between the Nationals and Cubs. That marked Candelario’s third strong season within the last four years. The Reds expected that to continue. Instead, he hit .225/.279/.429 during his first season in Cincinnati. While he connected on 20 homers, he had a career-worst walk rate (5.8%) and on-base percentage. Candelario also graded poorly defensively, leading to a sub-replacement level performance.

Candelario’s roster spot isn’t in jeopardy. His performance was probably impacted by a knee issue through which he played for a good chunk of last season. The Reds wouldn’t have cut bait after one season of a three-year deal even if he’d simply underperformed while at full health. That said, they’re less likely to stick with him as a regular third baseman if he doesn’t turn things around quickly.

That presumably played a role in the Gavin Lux trade. Cincinnati acquired the former top prospect from the Dodgers for outfield prospect Mike Sirota and the 41st pick in the upcoming draft. After missing all of 2023 to an ACL tear, Lux had a league average .251/.320/.383 slash with 10 homers in 487 plate appearances last season. The in-season splits were dramatic. Lux had a terrible first half, caught fire coming out of the All-Star Break, then didn’t hit during L.A.’s World Series run. The second half numbers might hint at a greater offensive ceiling, but he’s nearly 1500 plate appearances into his career and has been an average hitter (.252/.326/.383).

Average offensive production would be an upgrade over what Candelario provided last season. The bigger question is whether Lux can handle third base. He moved off shortstop because of throwing accuracy concerns. Lux didn’t start a game anywhere other than second base last year. He has six career innings as a third baseman from one game in 2021 (in which he made two throwing errors). He hasn’t started a regular season game on the left side of the infield in four years.

Mark Sheldon of MLB.com wrote last week that the Reds intend to move Lux around the infield during Spring Training. He could eventually see time in the outfield as well, though Francona indicated they’d have him solely on the infield at the beginning of camp. Lux and Francona each expressed confidence in his ability to make all the necessary throws, though that’s obviously something he’ll need to continue to prove in games.

Lux has minor league options remaining, but the Reds wouldn’t have given up two decent assets and taken on a $3.325MM arbitration salary if they didn’t expect him playing a key role. He’ll be on the MLB roster. If that’s not as the regular third baseman, he’d bounce around in a utility capacity and potentially work as a designated hitter. Cincinnati’s bench is otherwise heavily right-handed, so Lux’s lefty bat could provide balance.

Marte and Christian Encarnacion-Strand have less established MLB roster spots. They were each highly-touted prospects, Marte in particular, whose stocks tanked in 2024. Marte was banned for the season’s first 80 games after testing positive for Boldenone. He had a terrible second half upon his reinstatement. He hit .210/.248/.301 with a 31% strikeout rate and a meager 3.7% walk percentage over 242 plate appearances. He’ll need to dramatically hone in his plate discipline to tap into the power that made him a top prospect. At 23 years old, he’s far from finished, but it’s tough to see him winning an MLB job out of camp.

Encarnacion-Strand had an impressive half-season in 2023. He hit 13 homers with a .270/.328/.477 slash as a rookie. That earned him the Opening Day first base job last year. His season never really got off the ground. Encarnacion-Strand hit .190 with a .220 OBP over 29 games. A fracture in his right hand sent him to the injured list in early May. He attempted to rehab but required season-ending surgery six weeks later. It’s easy to write last year off as an injury-related anomaly, but he’s an unlikely long-term answer at third base. Prospect evaluators have panned his defense, with most projecting him as a first baseman. Even if he gets back on track offensively, he’s likely to see most of his action at first or DH.

The Reds have a few other third base options — none of whom are likely to push for the job early in the season. Espinal is back as a glove-first infielder. His .247/.300/.348 slash over the past two years points to a utility role. Cincinnati selected Cooper Bowman from the A’s in the Rule 5 draft. He has been a second baseman for most of his career and has 53 professional innings at the hot corner. Even if he sticks on the MLB roster, it’d be in a developmental capacity. Steer and Rece Hinds each played third in the minors but moved off the position for defensive reasons. Prospect Tyler Callihan is on the 40-man roster but has only four career Triple-A games.

How will the Reds divvy up playing time at the hot corner this season?

Who Will Lead The Reds In Third Base Innings In 2025?
Jeimer Candelario. 52.42% (1,855 votes)
Gavin Lux. 21.22% (751 votes)
Noelvi Marte. 15.57% (551 votes)
Christian Encarnacion-Strand. 8.28% (293 votes)
Other (specify in comments). 2.51% (89 votes)
Total Votes: 3,539

 

The Opener: Nationals, Blanco, Effross

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As Spring Training continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Nationals 40-man move incoming:

The Nationals reportedly agreed to a new deal with right-hander Kyle Finnegan yesterday after non-tendering him back in November. However, the one-year, $6MM pact is not yet official. In order for the deal to become official, the Nationals will have to create a space on their 40-man roster for Finnegan. The Nats have already put both Josiah Gray and Mason Thompson on the 60-day injured list this spring, and have no other obvious candidates to miss the first two months of the season. Given that, they’ll likely need to designate a player for assignment or work out some sort of minor trade in order to clear a roster spot for Finnegan. That transaction is likely to come in the near future, as the club will surely want to get Finnegan into camp as soon as possible.

2. Blanco undergoes MRI:

Royals outfielder Dairon Blanco was scratched from the club’s spring lineup earlier this week due to soreness in his right Achilles tendon. According to MLB.com’s Anne Rogers, initial x-rays came back showing nothing of particular concern, but Kansas City still sent Blanco for an MRI exam yesterday. Those results figure to be available as soon as today, at which point a timeline for Blanco’s return to baseball activities can be established. The soon to be 32-year-old slashed .258/.308/.392 in 88 games for the Royals last year and currently appears likely to serve as Kyle Isbel’s platoon partner in center field for Kansas City this season. Should Blanco miss significant time, Joey Wiemer or Drew Waters could be tapped to step into that role instead.

3. Effross to undergo testing:

Yankees right-hander Scott Effross has struggled to stay on the field since being acquired from the Cubs at the 2022 trade deadline for righty Hayden Wesneski (who later went on to be part of the Kyle Tucker trade this offseason). Effross, 31, has appeared in just 16 games since first donning a Yankees uniform. Tommy John surgery shut him down in 2022, and back surgery kept him out for the majority of the 2024 campaign. The righty has managed just 74 2/3 innings of work in the majors but has been excellent when healthy, with a 2.89 ERA and 2.86 FIP for his career.

A healthy Effross would be a key part of New York’s bullpen, but unfortunately the injury bug appears to have bitten him again. According to Greg Joyce of the New York Post, Effross left his most recent spring appearance after throwing just one pitch yesterday due to what Aaron Boone described to reporters (including Joyce) as a hamstring issue. Effross is set to undergo testing to determine the severity of the problem, but anything more than a mild strain could rule the righty out for Opening Day.

Facing My Heroes: The Day I Struck Out Ichiro Suzuki Twice

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Editor’s Note: Brandon Beachy had a relatively brief but highly memorable career, rising from undrafted free agent to a key — at times overpowering — member of the Braves’ rotation. Injuries derailed Beachy’s career, but he retired with a 14-12 record and 275 2/3 innings of 3.36 ERA ball under his belt. Beachy was at his best from 2010-12, when he made 41 starts with a pristine 3.07 ERA and plus strikeout/walk rates alike. Nearly two years ago to the day, Brandon was kind enough to take some time to host a chat with MLBTR readers. We’ve asked him about contributing some occasional writing for the site, and we’re thrilled that he’s taken us up on the offer.

A couple of years ago, I did a Q&A with readers that MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes said was well received. He asked if I’d be interested in doing some writing, and after a little consideration, I figured I’d give it a shot. We’ll see how it goes.

For my first piece, I want to talk about what it was like to face one of baseball’s greatest hitters: Ichiro Suzuki. As an undrafted free agent signing with the Atlanta Braves in 2008, I worked my way through the minors and made my Major League debut in September 2010. I had some success but unfortunately dealt with multiple elbow injuries that ultimately ended my career sooner than I’d hoped. Still, I had some incredible experiences, and facing Ichiro on June 27, 2011, is one of the most memorable.

Preparation

I want to set the scene by briefly describing my process and preparation. The day after my starts I would come in early, get my flush running in, and get into the gym. I’d then go through yesterday’s start pitch by pitch. Roger McDowell was very influential on me. The results mattered of course, but some of my toughest self-scouting days came after quality starts or even scoreless outings. I had days where I felt I had just gotten lucky after executing rather poorly. I would track all my fastballs and how often I hit my spot. I believed in the long run that process-oriented approach would yield the results I wanted in the long run.

Day 2 is when I started looking ahead at my next opponent. I’d look over their roster, see who was hot at the time, and dive into their numbers a little bit. I wanted to know two things on each hitter:

  1. What and where (i.e. pitch type, location) did they struggle that could be a putaway opportunity for me?
  2. Against which pitch type and where within the zone did they do their damage?

Balancing this with pitching to your own strengths was a lot of fun. I really enjoyed this side of the competition.

The First At-Bat (YouTube link)

Back to June 27, 2011. I was throwing to Brian McCann, one of the best catchers a young pitcher could ask for. Mac was huge comfort blanket for me. He knew the hitters inside and out and was extremely perceptive to hitters’ swings and subtle changes.

Ichiro was leading off, and I started with a fastball up in the zone. He flared it foul down the left-field line. I was a four-seam, high-spin-rate guy before that became a widely discussed metric. I typically attacked hitters with my fastball early and often.

I missed with my next fastball to even the count at 1-1. I went back at him with another fastball, 93 mph, a little over the plate. He fouled it off. I got away with these a lot early in games especially. McCann had relayed things hitters had told him about my fastball just having a little extra gear than it appeared. McCann was great at using this to get me into favorable counts, and I trusted his guidance.

By this point, I thought Ichiro had a read on me—he knew what I was throwing and was adjusting accordingly, it seemed. Looking back I don’t think he ever started cheating to get to the fastball. He would’ve been content wasting them away all night long.

Next, I threw a well-located 95 mph fastball down and away. Ichiro was one of the best ever at this, and wasted another good pitch, just fouling them off instead of taking the strike. So McCann called for a changeup, a great pitch on the outer part of the plate. Ichiro appeared fooled by it but recognized it enough to keep his hands back, on plane and fouled it off to the right side.

Then came one of my favorite pitches of my entire career. McCann doubled up on the changeup here. After the way he kept his hands back on the last one I knew it couldn’t be the same. Mac set up on the chalk of the right-handed batter’s box to help illustrate this to me.

I threw a four seam changeup to match the spin of my fastball. I worked daily to try to stay perfectly behind this pitch so that it would mimic the fastball exactly. On this next pitch I intentionally got way inside of the ball, running it left to right out into the other batter’s box. Ichiro swung and missed. It was a huge moment—a small victory in the battle against one of the toughest outs in baseball.

The Second At-Bat (YouTube link)

In the third inning, we were up 1-0 with two outs and nobody on—an ideal time to face a hitter of Ichiro’s caliber. I started him off hard away, and again, he fouled it off, clearly tracking my fastball well. I missed off the edge with another fastball, bringing the count to 1-1.

McCann went back to the changeup. I threw a good one down and away, but Ichiro did what he does best—he kept his hands back just long enough to barrel it up and shoot it up the middle for a single. He was never the type of hitter who needed perfect timing; his ability to adjust mid-swing was second to none. This “good” pitch played into his hands well.

The Third At-Bat (YouTube link)

By the fifth inning, the game was tied, and I had a runner on third with two outs. The stakes were higher. After inducing a pop out for the second out, Mac visited the mound before Ichiro came to the plate. He was great in these settings. Always incredibly encouraging and helping me focus. A lot of times he would just ask what I wanted for first pitch, which is what I think was discussed here. I missed up with a fastball to start, then threw another over the plate that he swung through. Looking back, I can now see that I don’t think Ichiro had been on my fastball all day. He’d fouled them off repeatedly, but with glancing blows, not square dangerous swings.

At a 1-1 count, McCann called for another changeup, but he set up way outside, almost in the other batter’s box recalling the pitch I had struck him out on in the first inning. I again got way inside the release of it, and it ran sharply to the right and out of the zone. Ichiro, recognizing changeup, committed to the pitch expecting one like he had singled last at bat — swung and missed. Now I was ahead 1-2.

Then McCann made the call that sealed it. Instead of another changeup, he called for a slider down and in—a pitch Ichiro hadn’t seen yet. I threw a good one, and he swung over the top as it bounced into the dirt. Strike three. I got out of the inning unscathed, thanks to McCann’s pitch calling and conviction in the way he set up. These nonverbal cues put me at ease giving me not just the pitch he wanted and the location, but the purpose behind it.

The Takeaway

Earlier that year, I sat with Chipper Jones and a group of hitters, probably McCann included. Chipper was always generous with his time, and he’d invited me to always listen in and would even tailor conversations to help me understand from a pitcher’s perspective. One thing he told me stuck: “Maybe one or two guys in each lineup are truly thinking the game—picking pitches, playing chess at the plate.” The rest just go execute against. Ichiro was definitely one of those guys.

Facing a legend like Ichiro was an incredible challenge. He wasn’t just reacting to pitches—he was playing the chess game at an elite level. Early in the game, he wasn’t selling out for my fastball; he was waiting for something off-speed. Striking him out twice in the same game felt surreal, but it came down to a combination of sequencing, execution, and trust in my catcher.

Looking back, moments like these are what made my time in the big leagues so special. Sitting in the dugout after the game, icing my arm, I couldn’t help but think, I just struck out Ichiro Suzuki twice. It was one of those “I can’t believe I’m here” moments that I’ll always cherish.

Baseball is full of small battles within the larger game. Sometimes, you win those battles, and sometimes you don’t. In this instance, I believe I benefited from giving up what was ultimately a harmless single in the 3rd inning. Striking a pro hitter out is always a good feeling. Fooling someone or overpowering them are fun. My favorites though were times like these with Ichiro, where I gave them what I believe they wanted and used their aggression and wits against them.

After my playing career ended, I decided to bet on myself again—this time in business ownership through franchising. I wanted control over my time after years of being told where to be and when. Franchising was the right fit for me, and I believe it’s a great path for many athletes making the transition, as well as anyone looking for a new opportunity.

Now, while running my own business, I also help others navigate franchising as a consultant—a guide, coach, and advocate for those exploring their next step. My service is free, and I’m always happy to talk franchising, baseball, or anything in between. Feel free to reach out at Brandon@whatsnextfranchising.com.

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