Marlins Re-Sign Bryan Holaday To Minor League Deal
The Marlins have agreed to re-sign veteran catcher Bryan Holaday to a minor league contract, tweets Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. He’ll be invited to Major League Spring Training and again compete for a roster spot.
Holaday, 31, spent the 2018 season as the primary backup to star catcher (and trade candidate) J.T. Realmuto. The well-traveled veteran appeared in 61 games for Miami and tallied 166 plate appearances, though he struggled considerably, hitting just .205/.261/.258 in that time.
Holaday has long struggled to get on base, but his defensive contributions in 2018 were readily apparent. He threw out a league-leading 45 percent of would-be base thieves (17-for-38) and, per Baseball Prospectus, delivered above-average marks in terms of both pitch framing and blocking.
Chad Wallach is the only catcher other than Realmuto who is presently on the Marlins’ roster, so they’ll need some additional depth whether Realmuto is traded or retained. In the event of a trade, it’s unlikely that Holaday would be in line for regular work in Miami — he’s never topped 171 PAs in a big league season — but he’ll likely be in the race for a roster spot regardless of how Miami’s offseason shakes out.
Cardinals, Chris Beck Agree To Minor League Deal
The Cardinals are in agreement with right-hander Chris Beck on a minor league contract, tweets Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com. He’ll presumably compete for a bullpen spot in Spring Training and serve as Triple-A depth if he doesn’t crack the roster.
Beck. 28, posted a 4.50 ERA in 34 innings between the White Sox and Mets in 2018, though his 21-to-20 K/BB ratio in that short time was obviously cause for some concern. Beck, a second-round draft pick of the ChiSox in 2012, has yet to find his footing at the big league level, as he’s struggled to a 5.88 ERA through 130 innings.
Beck did average better than 95 mph on his heater last season and has fared a bit better in the minor leagues, where he’s logged a 4.05 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and 0.5 HR/9 in 188 2/3 innings across parts of five seasons.
Craig Kimbrel Reportedly Seeking Six-Year Contract
Teams that have spoken to Craig Kimbrel‘s camp early in the offseason have been told that the right-hander “is looking for a six-year deal,” tweets ESPN’s Buster Olney. It’s likely that there’s some degree of tactical negotiating at play here; free agents will always set out seeking a sum larger than the one they perhaps hope to find, and a six-year pact for Kimbrel would be precedent-setting.
At 30 years of age, Kimbrel is already older than both Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman were when they signed their five-year contracts worth $80MM and $86MM, respectively. Those are the two largest deals for any reliever in MLB history, and Kimbrel is presumably aiming to topple both. His ability to do so, of course, is far from a certainty. Though he comes with as much name value as any reliever in the game, Kimbrel had already displayed some red flags in 2018 even before struggling in the postseason.
Through 62 1/3 regular-season innings in 2018, Kimbrel posted a 2.74 ERA which, while strong, was the second-highest of his career. Few clubs place much of an emphasis on that figure in today’s game, but Kimbrel also saw his walk rate spike to 12.6 percent, the second-highest full-season mark of his career. Beyond that, Kimbrel also averaged a home run per nine innings pitched for the first time and turned in a career-worst 3.13 FIP.
Unfortunately for Kimbrel, his most pronounced struggles came under the national spotlight of the 2018 postseason. He surrendered runs in five of his nine playoff outings, issuing eight walks and hitting another two batters in just 10 2/3 innings of total work. It’s worth noting that he’d allowed all of two earned runs in 10 postseason innings coming into the 2018 season, but his late struggles didn’t leave a favorable final impression.
All of this, to some extent, is a matter of splitting hairs. The 2018 version of Kimbrel wasn’t the superhuman entity that Red Sox fans enjoyed in 2017, but Kimbrel was still one of the game’s top relievers. His 97.1 mph average fastball velocity is a dead match for his career mark in that regard, and his 17.2 percent swinging-strike rate was actually an improvement over his 16.5 percent career mark. He ranked sixth among 151 qualified relievers in overall strikeout percentage, fifth in swinging-strike rate and 12th in K%-BB%. A control issue was his primary downfall in 2018, evidenced not only by the increased walk rate but by the decreased first-pitch strike rate and overall percentage of pitches he threw in the strike zone.
As for the postseason difficulties, those are hardly a death knell for Kimbrel’s free-agent stock. Yu Darvish, for instance, landed a $126MM guarantee last winter on the heels of some of his own World Series struggles, and the opposite effect (or lack thereof) can hold equally true; speculation that Daniel Murphy had emphatically bolstered his free-agent stock with his 2015 postseason heroics never manifested into reality. He signed a three-year, $37.5MM deal with the Nationals that was generally in line with pre-October expectations.
As for the six-year ask, that could well be a ploy to get down to a more realistic target of five years or even four at a record-setting average annual value — Wade Davis‘ $17.33MM mark currently holds that distinction — which is generally where most projections have pegged Kimbrel this winter. We at MLBTR predicted a four-year, $70MM deal for Kimbrel, which would fall shy of the overall record guarantee for a reliever but would set a new high-water mark in terms of AAV at $17.5MM. Kimbrel already rejected a qualifying offer that would’ve paid him $17.9MM in 2019. As such, any team that signs him will face draft pick and/or international pool forfeitures (the specifics of which can be seen here).
Latest On Orioles’ Front Office Overhaul, Managerial Search
The Orioles have fired farm director Brian Graham, who served as the interim general manager between the dismissal of Dan Duquette and the hiring of Mike Elias, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (on Twitter). The move comes not long after the decision not to retain scouting director Gary Rajsich for the 2019 season, as reported by Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com.
The pair of personnel changes marks the latest in a series of moves designed to bring about an organizational overhaul in Baltimore. Graham has been the team’s director of player development since the 2013 season and been with the team since 2007, while Rajsich was hired by Duquette as the team’s director of scouting back in 2011.
With Graham and Rajsich both out the door, two of the three top-ranking executives mentioned in the Orioles’ press release announcing a “transition in baseball operations leadership” are now out of the organization; of that trio, only vice president of baseball operations Brady Anderson remains. The departures of Graham and Rajsich give the Orioles another pair of significant vacancies to fill — all while the team continues its search for a replacement for the also-dismissed Buck Showalter.
Adding a manager is the organization’s top priority at present, Elias said last night in an interview on 105.7 FM The Fan in Baltimore (links via Kubatko and Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun). Elias declined to delve into specifics, as one would expect. However, the newly hired Baltimore GM did acknowledge that he, with assistance from new assistant GM Sig Mejdal and others in the front office, has pared the list of initial candidates down “quite a bit.” Elias added that he feels the Orioles are “well past phase one of this search.”
Once a manager is in place, that hire will work alongside Elias and the front office to fill in what will in all likelihood be a significantly revamped coaching staff for the 2019 season. Paired with the need to hire a new farm director and scouting director (and the subsequent new hires that’ll be made to work underneath that pair), Elias, Mejdal and the remnants of the prior regime face a fairly daunting amount of administrative work in the coming weeks. That, of course, is in addition to the obvious roster machinations that need to be made for a team that lost a franchise-record number of games in 2018.
Chief among those decisions is likely determining who will be selected with the top pick in next month’s Rule 5 Draft. By virtue of finishing the 2018 season with the worst record in baseball, Baltimore has the top pick, and Elias confirmed in last night’s interview that the O’s will indeed be making a selection.
Padres To Sign Garrett Richards
DECEMBER 7: The signing is now official. Richards will earn $7MM in the first year of the deal and $8.5MM in the second, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. The contract includes $250K bonuses for every start he makes from his 21st through his 30th.
NOVEMBER 29, 7:14pm: Heyman tweets that Richards will be guaranteed $15.5MM and can earn another $2.5MM worth of incentives on the deal.
3:59pm: It’s a straight two-year deal for Richards, Passan further tweets. With incentives, the contract can max out at a total of $18MM.
3:49pm: Richards’ two-year agreement comes with a hefty guarantee of roughly $15MM, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link). That’s a new precedent for a player coming off Tommy John surgery, though the timing of Richards’ surgery also makes it at least plausible that he could return to the mound before the end of the 2019 season.
3:45pm: The Padres have reached an agreement with free-agent right-hander Garrett Richards, tweets Fancred’s Jon Heyman. The ISE Baseball client was reported earlier today to be a target of both the Padres and the division-rival Dodgers.
Richards may not pitch in 2019 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in mid July, but other free-agent starters in his situation have recently landed two-year guaranteed deals with an eye toward contributing in the second season of that pact. Namely, both Michael Pineda and Drew Smyly signed two-year, $10MM contracts last winter (with the Twins and Cubs, respectively), while Nathan Eovaldi inked a two-year, $4MM pact with the Rays an offseason prior. All three of those hurlers had undergone Tommy John surgery and were known to be out for the vast majority of the first season of those two-year deals.
A former top 50 overall draft pick (No. 42 in 2009), Richards established himself on the Angels’ pitching staff in 2013 and looked to be one of the more promising young arms in the American League by the end of the 2015 campaign. In 2014-15, the righty pitched to a combined 3.18 ERA through 376 innings (58 starts) and averaged 8.1 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9 along the way.
Injuries, however, have limited the now-30-year-old Richards to just 138 2/3 innings in the three seasons since that time. He’s been quite good when healthy enough to take the mound — 3.05 ERA, 9.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 3.59 FIP — but by the lengthy slate of arm injuries that has slowed his career now make him an upside play in free agency rather than the potential frontline starter many expected he’d become after that strong 2013-15 showing.
The most recent ulnar collateral ligament injury for Richards was actually the second of his career; he also suffered a UCL tear back in 2016 but opted to undergo stem cell treatment to avoid surgery. While that did stave off Tommy John surgery for awhile, Richards was ultimately forced to undergo the procedure this past summer when he was diagnosed with another tear.
For the Padres, the addition of Richards dovetails nicely with the organization’s projected timeline to contend. The Friars have begun to mix in some win-now moves with their longstanding efforts to rebuild the organization and were said this offseason to be eyeing pitchers who can help them contend in 2020, when much of the upcoming wave of young talent has surfaced at the MLB level. The Friars have little in the way of rotation certainty at the moment, so it’s still possible that they could add another arm on a multi-year deal — likely one who’d still be in his prime into 2020 and beyond. They’ve been tied to younger free-agent starters like Nathan Eovaldi and Yusei Kikuchi this offseason, and they’ve also been rumored to have interest in Mets righty Noah Syndergaard.
Dodgers, Indians Have Reportedly Discussed Trade Scenarios Involving Corey Kluber
The Indians’ top three starters have seen their names hit the rumor mill this winter, and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi writes that the Dodgers are among the teams who’ve discussed various trade concepts with Cleveland in the past few days. Specifically, one iteration involves both Corey Kluber and Yasiel Puig, per Morosi, though it’s clear that there are still some gaps to be filled in with regard to that specific package, as there’s no logical scenario in which Puig is any sort of centerpiece to a Kluber trade.
In fact, while the Indians have obvious outfield needs, it’s difficult to see a player as expensive as Puig being a prime target to fill that need. The reported willingness to listen to offers on Kluber and others seemed to stem from a desire to create payroll flexibility and add controllable young talent. Puig checks neither of those boxes and is a clear downgrade from Kluber in terms of overall value. While Kluber will earn $17MM next season, Puig is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $11.3MM himself. Shedding a mere $6MM or so in payroll wouldn’t be of that much benefit to Cleveland unless the Dodgers were to add significant pre-arbitration talent and/or take on some additional money in return.
Morosi writes that the Dodgers would likely be willing to part with lefty Alex Wood and pitching prospect Yadier Alvarez, but that pairing, again, presents issues. Namely, Wood is projected to earn $9MM in arbitration and, like Puig, is a free agent next winter. He’d be a fine one-year replacement for Kluber, but it’s the idea of moving Kluber to acquire a pair of expensive veterans who have just one season of team control remaining isn’t logical on its surface, unless there are other moving parts at play.
Alvarez, meanwhile, was touted as a mega-prospect when he signed for $16MM out of Cuba (plus a matching $16MM luxury tax penalty), but he’s yet to top 100 innings in any of his three seasons in the Dodgers’ minor league ranks. Beyond that, the 2018 campaign was far and away his worst since signing; in 48 1/3 innings at the Double-A level, Alvarez posted a 4.66 ERA with 52 strikeouts against an alarming total of 43 walks. There’s still ample time for the 22-year-old to realize his potential, but he’s not the type of young player who’d headline a package for one of the game’s elite pitchers.
The Dodgers do have the type of young talent that Cleveland would covet in any deal involving Kluber, of course, and it seems likely that any talks centering around him, Carlos Carrasco or Trevor Bauer have involved several names. But a deal including any of Puig, Wood or Alvarez would require the addition of some prominent young, controllable players in order to sufficiently pique Cleveland’s interest. Furthermore, it’s hard to envision a scenario where Cleveland adds the salary requirements that would come with both Puig and Wood in the same deal without some additional financial considerations coming into play.
Mariners Grant Casey Lawrence His Release To Pursue Opportunity In Japan
The Mariners announced that they’ve released right-hander Casey Lawrence so he can pursue an opportunity in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball.
Obviously, it’s not the move that Mariners fans (or Mets fans) are anxiously anticipating, though it does deplete the Mariners’ pitching depth a bit and likely afford Seattle with a bit of financial compensation from the team with which Lawrence will ultimately sign. Which club that is, at this point, remains unclear.
Lawrence, 31, has spent most of the past two seasons in the Mariners organization, struggling to a 6.20 ERA with 8.1 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 65 1/3 innings at the Major League level. He’s been solid in the minors, however, compiling a 3.73 earned run average while averaging seven strikeouts and 1.7 walks per nine innings pitched over the life of 262 2/3 frames — mostly as a starter. The new arrangement will surely provide Lawrence with a greater financial guarantee than he’d have earned with another season of bouncing between the Majors and Triple-A.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: Thursday
With the non-tender deadline looming tomorrow, there figure to be several players agreeing to pre-tender deals to avoid arbitration today. Many players who agree to terms prior to the deadline will be fringe non-tender candidates and, as such, are likelier to sign for less than they’d been projected in order to avoid a non-tender. We’ll keep track of today’s players who are avoiding arbitration in this post (with all referenced projections coming courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)…
- The Royals announced that they’ve agreed to one-year deals with both Cheslor Cuthbert and Jesse Hahn. Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports (via Twitter) that Cuthbert will earn $850K, while Hahn’s deal contains an $800K base salary. Both were definitive non-tender candidates, as Cuthbert batted just .194/.282/.301 in 117 plate appearances this past season. Hahn, meanwhile, didn’t pitch in 2018 due to a sprained ulnar collateral ligament that ultimately required “primary repair” surgery — a similar, but less invasive alternative to Tommy John surgery that is perhaps familiar to Royals fans after Seth Maness previously underwent the procedure.
Mets Sign Dilson Herrera To Minor League Deal
The Mets announced that they’ve signed infielder Dilson Herrera to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training.
Herrera, 25 in March, was long considered one of the best prospects in the Mets organization after being acquired from the Pirates in a 2013 trade. He made his MLB debut with the organization at the age of 20 back in 2014 and saw MLB action with the Mets in 2015 as well, but a series of shoulder issues slowed his development. The Mets ultimately flipped Herrera to the Reds, alongside young lefty Max Wotell, in the trade that sent Jay Bruce to New York. Herrera spent two-plus seasons in the Cincinnati organization but appeared in just 53 games late in the 2018 campaign, posting a dismal .184/.268/.414 slash in 97 plate appearances.
Though he was a seldom-used bench piece for the Reds after his call to the big leagues, Herrera did enjoy a solid season with their Triple-A affiliate in 2018. Through 50 games and 208 plate appearances, Herrera hit .297/.367/.467 with seven homers and 10 doubles.
International Notes: McGuire, Kelly, Dominguez
A few notes on some the market for players heading overseas and (potentially) returning from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball and the Korea Baseball Organization…
- The Samsung Lions of the Korea Baseball Organization announced that they’ve signed righty Deck McGuire, per Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency. McGuire will earn a $600K salary in addition to a $100K signing bonus, and his contract can max out at a total of $950K if he reaches all of the built-in incentives. McGuire, 29, pitched 38 2/3 innings this past season between the Angels and Blue Jays but struggled to a 6.16 ERA in that brief stint. A former first-round draft pick, McGuire has a 5.23 ERA in 51 2/3 innings as a Major Leaguer, but he’s had more success in the upper minors in recent seasons. The right-hander posted a strong 2.79 ERA in 168 innings with Cincinnati’s Double-A affiliate in 2017 and a 3.22 ERA in 44 2/3 innings with Toronto’s top affiliate in Buffalo this past season.
- Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweets that right-hander Merrill Kelly, who has spent the past three seasons pitching in Korea, could make his way back to the United States as a free agent this winter. Kelly, who turned 30 in October, has never pitched in the Majors but has thrived as a starter in the hitter-friendly KBO. Over the past two seasons with the SK Wyverns, Kelly has made 61 starts and tossed 390 1/3 innings of 3.64 ERA ball with 341 strikeouts (7.9 K/9) and 105 walks (2.4 BB/9). It’s not clear whether MLB clubs will view him as a starter or a reliever, but his strong results in Korea figure to lead to some degree of interest, regardless. Passan notes that Kelly will formally become eligible to sign on December 1.
- Former big league third baseman Matt Dominguez had his option declined by the Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball and will once again be a free agent this winter. The 29-year-old didn’t fare well in a small sample of games overseas this past season and hasn’t appeared in the big leagues since 2016. Dominguez was the Astros’ primary third baseman in 2013-14, clubbing 37 home runs in that time, but he’s had limited big league opportunities since. He’s a career .264/.309/.410 hitter through 570 Triple-A games and came with a strong defensive reputation earlier in his career.