Brewers Avoid Arbitration With Hernan Perez
The Brewers have settled on a 2019 salary with infielder Hernan Perez, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). He’ll earn $2.5MM, just a bit under the $2.7MM that MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz had projected.
More to come …
White Sox Non-Tender Avisail Garcia
The White Sox have decided not to tender a contract to outfielder Avisail Garcia, GM Rick Hahn told reporters including MLB.com’s Scott Merkin (via Twitter). He was projected by MLBTR & Matt Swartz to earn $8.0MM in arbitration.
Meanwhile, the Chicago club has reached agreement to avoid arbitration with Leury Garcia, Hahn added. He’ll earn $1.55MM, per Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune (via Twitter), which lands well shy of the $1.9MM that was projected.
More to come …
Phillies Have Reportedly Shown Interest In Jean Segura
As part of their talks with the Mariners regarding reliever Edwin Diaz, the Phillies have also shown interest in shortstop Jean Segura, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). While it seems Diaz is set to be sent elsewhere, there’s no reason that the clubs could not continue to discuss scenarios involving Segura.
The Phils entered the offseason with an obvious need at shortstop. While two oft-lauded prospects combined to see much of the action there in 2018, neither Scott Kingery nor J.P. Crawford has established himself as anything approaching a high-quality regular.
As the Mariners reposition their roster for the future, they seem to be moving rather swiftly down the line of major contracts and quality MLB assets. Segura comes with both, as he’s owed another $58MM through the 2022 campaign (including a buyout on a 2023 option) but has shown himself well worth that kind of coin. The 28-year-old has been a productive offensive player for each of the past three seasons and typically grades out as an average performer at short.
Speculation all along has been that the Phils were among the most sensible and likeliest suitors for Manny Machado. Interest in Segura doesn’t necessarily change that. The superstar free agent still surely remains under consideration in Philadelphia. Indeed, it’s not inconceivable that both players could be added, delivering a whole new left side of the infield.
Mets To Tender Travis d’Arnaud, Non-Tender Wilmer Flores
The Mets are slated to tender a contract to catcher Travis d’Arnaud, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (Twitter links). Things are headed in the opposite direction, however, for infielder Wilmer Flores, who’ll be cut loose.
It’s a bit of a surprise to see d’Arnaud receive a deal, as he has dealt with a bevy of injuries in recent seasons, most recently Tommy John surgery that wiped out most of his 2018 season. He’s projected by MLBTR & Matt Swartz to earn $3.7MM.
Flores, meanwhile, has been durable and dependable, but he’s a limited player. While he has been a solidly above-average hitter over the past three years, he also does most of his damage against left-handed pitching and has increasingly been limited to the corner infield. Obviously, the Mets felt his salary (projected at $4.7MM) was just too steep to warrant the ongoing commitment.
White Sox To Non-Tender Matt Davidson
The White Sox will non-tender infielder Matt Davidson, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). Eligible for arbitration as a Super Two, the slugger was projected by MLBTR & Matt Swartz to earn $2.4MM.
Davidson, 28, made some positive strides with the White Sox last season, as he more than doubled his walk rate from 4.3 percent in 2017 to 10.5 percent in 2018. Davidson managed to cut back on the alarming 37.2 percent strikeout rate he posted in 2017 as well, though his 2018 rate of 33.3 percent was still far too high. Although the slugger’s overall offensive output improved from .220/.260/.452 to .228/.319/.419, his markedly improved on-base skills came with a noted downturn in his power production.
Defensively, Davidson played a respectable first base, per both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating, but he saw limited action at his original position, third base, and was primarily a designated hitter when in the lineup. A player with such limited defensive value and questionable contact skills was apparently a tough sell in the White Sox’ front office, but Davidson could hold some value as a corner-infield bat off the bench elsewhere. He did post impressive platoon numbers, clobbering lefties at a .289/.382/.500 clip. That, however, was accompanied by a corresponding .206/.296/.391 slash against righties.
Dodgers Avoid Arbitration With Tony Cingrani
The Dodgers have struck a deal with lefty Tony Cingrani to avoid arbitration, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). It’ll include a guaranteed, $2.65MM salary, per the report.
Standard arbitration contracts are not fully guaranteed, so obviously something spurred the Dodgers to do so in this case. The salary does not fall far from the $2.7MM MLBTR projection, but his reps at the Bledsoe Agency may have been able to argue for more.
The 29-year-old Cingrani only managed to throw 22 2/3 MLB innings in 2018, and carried an unsightly 4.76 ERA. It sounds funny to say it, but he was otherwise quite impressive. Cingrani racked up 14.3 K/9 with just 2.4 BB/9 while drawing grounders on half of the balls put in play against him. And he drew swings and misses at a career-best 13.8% rate.
Reds To Non-Tender Billy Hamilton
The Reds are planning to non-tender center fielder Billy Hamilton, reports C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (via Twitter). He’ll become a free agent and will be eligible to sign with any team once the move is official.
Hamilton, who turned 28 in September, was arbitration-eligible for the final time this winter and had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.9MM in 2019. Instead, he’ll hit the open market in search of a new organization after spending the first 10 seasons of his professional career in the Cincinnati organization.
It’s a surprising bit of news for Hamilton even in spite of the defensive standout’s ongoing struggles at the plate. Reds owner Bob Castellini has previously gone on record to state that he hoped Hamilton would be a Red “forever” (Twitter link via Jerry Crasnick), and the organization has rebuffed trade interest in the speedster in each of the past two offseasons.
It seems, however, that the organization simply no longer feels that the benefit of Hamilton’s glove and premium baserunning skills are worth the lack of offense that has become synonymous with Hamilton’s name. Though he was long touted as one of the game’s premier prospects due to his 80-grade speed, Hamilton has mustered just a .244/.297/.332 batting line in five seasons since becoming a regular with Cincinnati back in 2014. That production is even more questionable when considering the fact that Hamilton plays his home games in Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park, which is one of baseball’s most hitter-friendly settings; both OPS+ and wRC+ indicate that when adjusting for that hitter-friendly home park, Hamilton’s offense has been a full 30 percent worse than that of a league-average hitter.
To his credit, Hamilton has stolen more than 50 bases on four different occasions and, even in a “down” year in that regard, swiped 34 bags last season. He’s also delivered a whopping 51 Defensive Runs Saved in Center Field, which is largely backed up by a +45.5 Ultimate Zone Rating in his big league career. Statcast’s newest outfield defensive metric, Outs Above Average, only goes back three seasons but still feels that Hamilton has recorded a staggering 52 outs more than a league-average center fielder would generate, based on catch probability data.
At 28 years of age, it seems unlikely that Hamilton will ever develop into a bona fide offensive threat, though it’s certainly not out of the question that a change of scenery could bring about some improvement at the plate. He’ll likely have no shortage of interested teams inquire with his representatives at Wasserman, and the sheer extent of his baserunning and defensive value makes him a likely candidate to land a big league deal elsewhere.
For the Reds, the move opens up roughly $6MM of payroll next season — a relatively small but not insignificant sum as the organization aggressively pursues rotation upgrades. Cincinnati is reportedly even intrigued by top-of-the-market options, most recently being tied to Dallas Keuchel, though it remains to be seen if they can convince a top-tier name to sign on to pitch at Great American Ball Park for a club that hasn’t had a winning season since 2013. Certainly, the added payroll space can’t hurt.
Of course, the Reds now also have a need in center field that may need to go outside the organization to fill. There’s been talk of moving top prospect Nick Senzel to the outfield, though injuries limited the former No. 2 overall pick to 44 games in 2018 and his pro experience has come exclusively in the infield. Scott Schebler has a bit of experience in center field but has traditionally been more of a corner option, while Jesse Winker has been regarded primarily as a left fielder himself. Phil Ervin and Jose Siri represent other options, but given that the Reds hope to take a step toward being more competitive in 2019, it seems likely that they’ll pursue a more established option.
Cubs Tender Addison Russell Arbitration Contract
The Cubs announced today that they have tendered a contract to embattled shortstop Addison Russell. Like any other standard arbitration situation, it’s a non-guaranteed deal.
Russell’s status with the Chicago organization was (and to some extent still is) in doubt. He is slated to sit out the first month of the 2019 campaign as he finishes serving a 40-game suspension under the MLB-MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence Policy. That punishment was handed down following allegations from Russell’s ex-wife, Melisa Reidy. (She spoke with ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers about the situation recently, for those unfamiliar with the details.)
Many wondered whether the Cubs would trade or non-tender Russell as a result of the troubling allegations, which involved conduct during his time with the organization. Instead, the club will take at least a partial step toward retaining the shortstop, though certainly he could still be cut loose or traded. Russell and president of baseball operations Theo Epstein each issued statements through the team’s Twitter feed. Russell is projected by MLBTR to earn $4.3MM via arbitration; his salary has yet to be determined, so far as is publicly known.
Rangers Sign Jesse Chavez
Nov. 30: The Rangers have formally announced their two-year deal with Chavez.
Nov. 27: The Rangers are and right-hander Jesse Chavez are in agreement on a two-year contract worth a total of roughly $8MM, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link). Mark Feinsand of MLB.com had previously tweeted that the two sides were close to a deal. It’s the second straight offseason that the Sosnick, Cobbe & Karon client landed with the Rangers, as Chavez signed in Texas last offseason before being flipped to the Cubs in a midseason swap.
Chavez, 35, enjoyed the finest season of his career in 2018 after joining the Rangers as an unheralded, $1MM signing late in Spring Training. The journeyman righty posted a 3.51 ERA in 56 1/3 innings with Texas before joining the Cubs and turning into an absolute bullpen juggernaut. In 39 innings, Chavez allowed just five runs on 26 hits and five walks with 42 strikeouts out of Joe Maddon’s bullpen. He also chipped in a scoreless inning in the NL Wild Card Game against the Rockies.
Chavez’s unforeseeable ascension from mop-up man to a high-leverage hammer for Maddon was tied, in part, to a significant uptick in the usage of a cutter. With the Cubs, Chavez relied almost entirely on cutters and sinkers — largely abandoning his changeup, slider and curveball. The results speak for themselves and helped push a player who a year ago struggled to find a 40-man roster spot into a multi-year free-agent agreement (albeit at a relatively modest rate).
Many Cubs fans, of course, will remember Chavez’s proclamation that he’d retire if he didn’t return to the Cubs in 2019. That comment came in the emotional fallout of Chicago’s loss in the aforementioned Wild Card Game, though, and it’s also not clear how far the Cubs were willing to go in order to retain the righty. The Cubs, to the surprise of many, are reported to have substantial payroll concerns this winter — so much so that they felt it necessary to trade Drew Smyly before exercising Cole Hamels’ 2019 option. If funds are indeed as tight as it seems in Wrigleyville, then perhaps president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer simply balked at the notion of a multi-year deal for the 35-year-old journeyman on the heels of a career year.
For a Rangers pitching staff that was in shambles for much of the 2018 season, Chavez will bring some versatility to the table. He can certainly start for Texas, should rookie manager Chris Woodward desire, but Chavez can also be deployed in a more nontraditional setting. He’s already familiar with multi-inning relief stints, and for a Rangers club that seems likely to utilize the “opener” strategy in 2019 and beyond, there’d be some appeal in using Chavez as the “primary pitcher” to piggyback on an opener’s short stint. Alternatively, if the Rangers are able to amass enough depth elsewhere on the staff, Chavez could simply be used in a high-leverage capacity late in the game, helping to bridge the gap between the starters and burgeoning bullpen star Jose Leclerc.
Of course, if Chavez can replicate the success he experienced in 2018 (or at least approach those levels), he’ll quite likely find himself on the trade block once again this summer. The Rangers aren’t likely to find themselves even on the fringes of the playoff picture in 2019, given the team’s general dearth of pitching depth, which would make Chavez and any other short-term veteran assets fairly obvious trade candidates come June and July of next season.
Chavez ranked 44th on MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 free agents of the offseason and was projected to sign a two-year, $10MM contract. His comments prompted a whopping 39.6 percent of participants to pick Chavez to return to the Cubs in MLBTR’s Free Agent Prediction contest; only two percent of respondents correctly forecast his Rangers reunion.
Latest On Patrick Corbin’s Market
The teams that have already met with free-agent lefty Patrick Corbin have been given the impression that he’s hoping to be the first major free agent to sign a long-term contract this winter, tweets Jayson Stark of The Athletic. Corbin met with the Phillies, Nationals and Yankees this week, though he’s surely been in contact with other clubs as the consensus top starting pitcher available in free agency. Stark suggests that a Corbin signing “will almost certainly” happen before the Winter Meetings, which are already only nine days away from beginning.
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote yesterday that early interest in Corbin is robust, with some teams believing he’ll receive offers of six years in length. (MLBTR projected Corbin to sign a six-year, $129MM contract.) Notably, Rosenthal cites one source in suggesting that Nationals GM Mike Rizzo is “seriously focused” on acquiring Corbin, though Washington’s history of baking heavy deferrals into long-term contracts isn’t always well received by free agents.
More anecdotally, Rosenthal tweets that at Corbin’s offseason wedding, his younger brother donned a Yankees hat during his best man speech and joked that he hoped the groom would soon be moving closer to home. (Corbin, a childhood Yankees fan, is from Syracuse.) The New York Post’s Ken Davidoff spoke to Yankees general manger Brian Cashman about the team’s meeting with Corbin, though Cashman unsurprisingly declined to reveal much, simply stating that Corbin “left here knowing a lot more about us than when he arrived.” The GM did, however, imply that the organization won’t necessarily wait for Corbin to make a decision before moving on. Based on Stark’s report, however, it doesn’t sound as if Corbin will be making interest parties wait all that long.
The 29-year-old Corbin is the second-youngest and very arguably the best starting pitcher on the free-agent market. He turned in his second career 200-inning season in 2018, his second straight season with 33 appearances and ranked seventh among qualified starting pitchers in strikeout percentage as well as second in swinging-strike rate.
If there’s a knock on Corbin, it’s that he doesn’t have a lengthy track record of performing at this level — largely because he underwent Tommy John surgery midway through his Diamondbacks tenure, missed one and a half seasons, and struggled in his first full year back. He’s been a quality hurler over the past two seasons, though, and D-backs pitching coach Mike Butcher tells Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer that he believes Corbin can maintain his 2018 transformation for years to come. Butcher and Lauber discuss the changes to Corbin’s arsenal — including the refinement of his slider and altered usage of his curveball — that brought about Corbin’s breakout season in 2018 in an interview that’s well worth a full read-through for fans hoping their preferred club will land the lefty.