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Tigers Made Six-Year Offer To Bregman

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Alex Bregman is headed to Boston on a three-year deal that comes with a massive $40MM average annual value (albeit with deferrals). The two-time All-Star was also known to have multiple six-year offers on the table, one of which was from the Astros.

The Tigers also proposed a six-year offer, as first reported by Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press. Petzold initially reported that Detroit’s offer was for narrowly above $170MM and included an opt-out clause after the second season. It had some amount of deferred money. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale specified it as a $171.5MM offer.

Detroit’s offer came with an approximate $28.58MM average annual value, before accounting for deferrals. Bregman obviously fared much better on an annual basis on the agreement with Boston. It seems as if Detroit offered the highest overall guarantee. The Astros had a six-year, $156MM offer on the table for most of the winter. While they reportedly bumped that towards the end of the process, they didn’t seem optimistic about getting a deal done.

Indeed, it doesn’t seem that Houston was even in the running by the end. Nightengale reports that the Cubs, Tigers and Red Sox were the finalists. As with Boston, Chicago only seemed interested on a short-term deal. However, they weren’t willing to match the Sox’s offer on an annual basis. Nightengale reports that the Cubs proposed a four-year, $120MM deal. According to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, that would have included opt-outs after the second and third seasons.

The Tigers and Cubs would each have kept Bregman at his traditional third base position. They’re likely to turn the hot corner to young players with top prospect pedigree but little to no MLB experience (Jace Jung and Matt Shaw, respectively). Bregman is ticketed for second base work in Boston, where Rafael Devers will stick at the hot corner.

Evan Phillips, Michael Kopech Behind Schedule

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Dodgers right-hander Evan Phillips missed the World Series last year due to shoulder troubles, but the full scope of his injury was never made clear until camp opened this week. Phillips tells the Dodgers beat that he was diagnosed with a small tear of a tendon in his rotator cuff during the 2024 postseason (link via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). The tear was not significant enough for doctors to recommend surgery, but Phillips received a cortisone injection and was shelved while his teammates closed out the postseason with a World Series win over the Yankees.

Even with the lack of surgery, Phillips could be IL-bound to begin the season, Plunkett writes. A follow-up MRI in December revealed significant healing but still some damage. Phillips has been limited in his offseason throwing program but said yesterday that he hopes to be on a mound “soon.”

The 30-year-old Phillips is a key member of the Dodgers’ late-inning relief corps when healthy. He picked up 18 saves in 2024 and another 24 saves the year prior. During his three full seasons as a Dodger, the former Braves, Orioles and Rays castoff has posted a 2.21 ERA with a big 29.6% strikeout rate against a tidy 6.5% walk rate. Phillips has saved 44 games overall and also been credited with 34 holds. He’s earning $6.1MM this year in his penultimate season of club control before reaching free agency in the 2026-27 offseason.

There’s a similarly murky update on fellow late-inning righty Michael Kopech. The Dodgers quickly moved to downplay a report that their deadline bullpen acquisition from last summer would miss a month to begin the season. GM Brandon Gomes at the time said that the team hadn’t seen “anything of concern yet” with regard to Kopech’s reportedly ailing forearm. To be fair to the team, there’s still no firm indication Kopech will be out a month, but manager Dave Roberts today conceded that Kopech, like Phillips, is “a little behind schedule” and is not a lock to be on the Opening Day roster (via The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya).

Like Phillips, Kopech played a key role in the Dodger bullpen after struggling with another organization. He posted a lackluster 4.73 ERA with the White Sox despite a huge 30.9% strikeout rate. Command was an issue with the South Siders, evidenced by a 12.6% walk rate, but a pitcher with Kopech’s raw stuff and former prospect pedigree seemed like he should fare better than he was with the ChiSox.

His fortunes indeed turned almost immediately after the trade. Kopech posted a microscopic 1.13 earned run average in 24 innings with Los Angeles. His 33% strikeout rate was a slight improvement, as was his 11.4% walk rate, but that walk rate was still about three percentage points higher than average. Kopech enjoyed a significant uptick in his opponents’ swinging-strike rate and chase rate, however, which adds some legitimacy to the improvement. He’s not going to sustain the ridiculous .167 average on balls in play or 91% strand rate he enjoyed with the Dodgers, but Kopech’s power arsenal and bat-missing abilities should make him a key arm for Roberts in the right-hander’s final season before free agency — assuming this forearm issue indeed proves minor.

The Dodgers, of course, made several meaningful splashes in the bullpen this winter, which will help to offset any missed time for Phillips and Kopech. In addition to re-signing Blake Treinen on a two-year deal, they gave out the largest contract for any reliever this winter when signing Tanner Scott on a four-year, $72MM deal. That pair will be joined by right-hander Kirby Yates, who inked a one-year, $13MM pact.

Tigers Sign John Brebbia

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The Tigers announced the signing of free agent reliever John Brebbia to a one-year deal with a $2.75MM guarantee. The Icon Sports Management client receives a $2.25MM base salary for the upcoming season and is guaranteed a $500K buyout on a $4MM club option for 2026. Detroit placed Alex Lange on the 60-day injured list to create a 40-man roster spot.

Brebbia’s deal includes $2MM in performance bonuses in both seasons — $250K each for 50, 55, 60 and 65 appearances and $250K apiece at 40, 45, 50, and 55 games finished. The ’26 option price can escalate based on his numbers this year. It’d climb by $500K at 65 appearances, $1MM apiece at 45 and 50 games finished, and by $2MM for 55 games finished. The maximum escalator value is capped at $4MM, so the appearance threshold would essentially be nullified if Brebbia finishes 55 games and pushes the option value to $8MM based on that criteria alone.

It’s a late addition to A.J. Hinch’s middle relief group. Brebbia split the 2024 campaign between the White Sox and Braves. He spent the bulk of the season in Chicago, where he initially looked to be a potential trade chip. He carried a strong 30% strikeout rate and a tidy 5.6% walk percentage over 38 innings into the All-Star Break. A low left-on-base rate contributed to a middling 4.50 earned run average, but he’d held opposing hitters to a .235/.288/.389 showing across 160 plate appearances.

Brebbia had a few ill-timed blowups in the weeks between the All-Star Break and the trade deadline. That tanked Chicago’s chances of dealing him. He continued to struggle into August. The Sox released him towards the end of that month. There was minimal value for them in carrying an impending free agent middle reliever for the final few weeks of the season. Brebbia caught on with Atlanta and tossed 6 2/3 frames of two-run ball over five appearances to finish the year.

The 34-year-old finished the season with an unsightly 5.86 ERA across 55 1/3 innings. His more interesting strikeout and walk numbers led Detroit to give him an Opening Day bullpen job. Brebbia had allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine innings in 2022 and ’23 as a member of the Giants. He fanned 29.2% of batters faced two seasons ago and has a quality 25.9% strikeout rate over his seven-year MLB career.

Brebbia and Tommy Kahnle are new additions to a Detroit bullpen that’ll be anchored by holdovers Jason Foley, Beau Brieske, Tyler Holton and Will Vest. They’re likely to have Kenta Maeda in a long relief role even with Alex Cobb set to open the season on the injured list.

Lange was Detroit’s season-opening closer in 2024. He had a tough time finding the strike zone and was optioned to Triple-A in the middle of May. Lange suffered a lat tear while pitching in the minors and required season-ending surgery in June. Detroit evidently didn’t feel he’d be ready within the first couple months of this season. The IL placement shelves him until late May at the earliest.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Padres To Stretch Out Stephen Kolek As Starter

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Padres manager Mike Shildt spoke to the media today and provided some updates on the club’s pitching plans. Per Dennis Lin of The Athletic, Shildt said that right-hander Stephen Kolek will be stretched out as a starter but fellow righty Bryan Hoeing will stay in a relief role this year.

Kolek, 28 in April, worked as a reliever in 2024 but has some starting experience. In the Mariners’ system in 2022, he made 27 Double-A starts and logged 143 2/3 innings, allowing 4.51 earned runs per nine. His 21.7% strikeout rate, 10.4% walk rate and 47% ground ball rate were all close to average marks. In 2023, the Mariners used him largely in a relief role. He tossed 69 1/3 innings across 49 minor league appearances, mostly in Triple-A, with a 3.76 ERA, 26.2% strikeout rate, 11% walk rate and 59% ground ball rate.

The Padres plucked him in the Rule 5 draft just over a year ago and kept him in the bullpen throughout 2024. He spent the final two months of the season on the injured list due to right forearm tendonitis but still managed to log 46 2/3 innings over 42 appearances. His 5.21 ERA doesn’t immediately impress, nor does his 18.5% strikeout rate. However, his 55.9% ground ball rate and 5.7% walk rate were both strong numbers. He had some bad luck in the form of a .359 batting average on balls in play and 64.3% strand rate, which is why his 3.57 FIP and 3.41 SIERA were both significantly better than his ERA. Statcast had his barrel rate in the 96th percentile of qualified pitchers and his average exit velocity in the 71st.

Kolek threw six different pitches in 2024: a sinker, cutter, four-seamer, sweeper, slider and changeup. He held lefties to a .271/.326/.294 batting line. Righties put up a much stronger .327/.373/.500 performance, though with a lot of that aforementioned poor batted ball luck coming in those righty-on-righty matchups, as he had a .386 BABIP in those.

Whether that arsenal can help him turn a major league lineup over a few times is anyone’s guess at this point. The fact that he tamped down damage from lefties is encouraging. If he has a significant turnaround in the BABIP department against righties, perhaps it can work. However, there are no guarantees, especially with Kolek having not started for two years now.

The fact that the Padres are considering such a move is a reflection of their financial situation. Bullpen-to-rotation conversions are popular these days but they usually involve guys with lengthy track records of major league success as relievers, such as Seth Lugo, or former top prospects like Garrett Crochet. Kolek, on the other hand, is a Rule 5 guy who had a 5.21 ERA in his MLB debut and was on the IL for the final two months of the year.

But there are some interesting numbers under the hood, as mentioned, and the Padres need to find cheap solutions. The payroll has clearly been tight going back to last offseason, which is what led to the Juan Soto trade. This winter, trade rumors have circled around guys like Dylan Cease, Michael King, Luis Arráez and Robert Suarez.

Trading Cease or King would further deplete a rotation that is already a big question mark. Those two and Yu Darvish give the club a solid front three but there’s little certainty beyond that. Joe Musgrove underwent Tommy John surgery in October and will likely miss the entire 2025 season.

There are some options for the back end on the roster, though there are question marks with those. Matt Waldron had a 3.71 ERA in the first half last year but 8.10 in the second half. Randy Vásquez had a 4.87 ERA last year but worked around a 14.4% strikeout rate. Jhony Brito was similar, with a 4.12 ERA and 15.7% strikeout rate, pitching only in relief. Juan Nunez, Omar Cruz and Ryan Bergert have yet to make their major league debuts.

With no real budget to work with and concerning rotation depth, the Padres might have to get creative, especially if they eventually trade Cease or King. There’s little harm in stretching a guy out in spring, as it’s generally considered easier to then move to a bullpen role later, as opposed to the other way around. He can also now be optioned, with the Rule 5 restrictions no longer in place, so getting some Triple-A work is possible.

It was reported in December that the club was considering Kolek, Hoeing and Adrián Morejón for rotation moves, though reporting from earlier this month took Morejón off the table. It now seems that Hoeing will also stick in a relief role going forward. Acquired from the Marlins alongside Tanner Scott at the deadline, Hoeing has a 4.80 ERA in 137 big league innings over the past three seasons. That includes a 2.18 ERA last year, between Miami and San Diego. He has fairly neutral splits and has thrown six different pitches in his career, providing some logic for considering the rotation move, but it seems he’ll stick in the bullpen.

Poll: Will The Cubs Extend Kyle Tucker?

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The Cubs have made a number of moves to push in towards a return to the postseason in 2025 after missing the playoffs in five of the last six seasons and not winning a playoff game since the club’s NLCS loss to the Dodgers back in 2017. After decent showings the past two seasons, both of which saw the club finish with 83 wins, the Cubs have gotten more aggressive in their efforts to improve. While the additions of Matthew Boyd and Colin Rea to the rotation mix, Ryan Pressly and Ryan Brasier to the bullpen, as well as Jon Berti and Carson Kelly to the bench are all more or less par-for-the-course moves for the Cubs in recent years, they made a major splash by swinging a trade with the Astros for Kyle Tucker.

The acquisition cost was steep, as they gave up top third base prospect Cam Smith as well as All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes and young right-hander Hayden Wesneski, but the acquisition of Tucker was a major upgrade for the lineup relative to Cody Bellinger and figures to provide the Cubs with an impact star who can anchor their lineup. Tucker’s slated to become a free agent after the 2025 season, however, and while youngsters Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara are waiting in the wings at Triple-A as potential replacements for Tucker in 2026 it would be an incredibly tall order to expect either youngster to become the sort of to player Tucker has fashioned himself into.

With the club having already given up substantial assets to just land one year of Tucker, the minds of many fans immediately go to an extension. It’s far from uncommon for star players traded just before their final year of team control to promptly extend their stay with that new club, with Francisco Lindor, Paul Goldschmidt, and Mookie Betts among the most notable star position players to work out long-term extensions shortly after being traded. With that being said, it doesn’t always work out that way as the Yankees found out when they gave up a massive haul for one year of Juan Soto’s services last winter only to watch him depart in free agency back in December.

Soto’s record-shattering $765MM deal won’t be an even remotely realistic target for Tucker, who will crucially head into free agency three years older than this offseason’s star free agent. Even so, that massive contract figures to raise the bar at least somewhat on the price tag for Tucker’s services. After all, both lefty-swinging right fielders are among the most valuable outfielders in the game over the past few years. Tucker’s 19.1 fWAR since the start of the 2021 season trails Soto’s 24.6 figure, but that’s with Tucker having missed half of the 2024 campaign due to a shin injury. Tucker lacks Soto’s generational plate discipline, but the former’s .280/.362/.527 slash line is in at least the same ballpark as Soto’s .279/.423/.520 slash line.

As previously mentioned, Soto’s youth and stronger overall offensive contributions mean his deal will greatly eclipse Tucker’s. Even so, it’s wholly reasonable to think that Tucker could exceed the $330MM guarantee Bryce Harper landed with the Phillies prior to the 2019 season and even Aaron Judge’s $360MM guarantee from the 2022-23 offseason. With major market clubs like the Dodgers, Yankees, and Giants all poised to have a hole in the outfield next winter, it’s not hard to imagine the bidding for Tucker’s services surpassing $350MM or even reaching $400MM so long as he’s healthy and as productive as expected this year. Signing a player to that sort of deal would be completely unprecedented for the Cubs, who have never signed a player for more than the $184MM deal they gave to Jason Heyward prior to the 2016 season, and it seems unlikely that a Tucker extension would come at much of a discount.

While doubling the franchise’s record contract would be a bold move, its one the Cubs should be able to afford. Despite playing in one of the league’s largest markets, Chicago has tended to treat the first luxury tax threshold as something of a hard cap in recent years. That first threshold will sit at $244MM in 2026, when RosterResource projects the club to have just $136MM in guaranteed contracts on the roster. That’s before likely raises for arbitration-eligible players like Justin Steele and a decision on Shota Imanaga’s deal that seems likely to raise the southpaw’s salary, but there should at least theoretically be plenty of room in the budget for a Tucker extension even after considering those factors should the Cubs wish to work one out.

There’s plenty of reasons to wonder if the Cubs would really have the appetite to sign Tucker to a massive contract, however. As noted by The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney, the Cubs appear to be acting quite cautiously when it comes to guaranteed contracts that extend beyond the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement in 2026. At the moment, Imanaga and Dansby Swanson are the only two players the club has guaranteed money to beyond the 2026 campaign. Even that ignores the possibility that Imanaga is allowed to opt out of his deal after the 2025 and ’26 seasons, which will depend on whether or not the Cubs are willing to pick up a series of club options that would extend his stay with the club through the end of the 2028 campaign.

One other potential wrinkle in the situation is Chicago’s pursuit of Tucker’s longtime teammate Alex Bregman. The Cubs have emerged as one of Bregman’s suitors over the course of the past month, and while they’re generally viewed as only interested in adding Bregman on a shorter-term deal (as was the case with their pursuit of Bellinger last winter), it’s at least possible that the club signing Bregman to a deal that guarantees upwards of $30MM annually could leave them uninterested in adding another high-dollar contract like the one Tucker figures to command.

What do MLBTR readers think about the situation? Will the Cubs and Tucker work out an extension before he reaches free agency in November? Or will Tucker follow in the footsteps of Soto and hit the open market? Have your say in the poll below:

Will The Cubs Extend Kyle Tucker?
No, Tucker will test free agency. 70.58% (6,260 votes)
Yes, they'll work out an extension. 29.42% (2,609 votes)
Total Votes: 8,869

Brewers Sign Tyler Alexander

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The Brewers announced Wednesday that they’ve signed left-hander Tyler Alexander to a one-year, major league contract. He’s a client of SSG Baseball. Fellow southpaw Robert Gasser, who’s recovering from Tommy John surgery, has been placed on the 60-day injured list to clear space on the 40-man roster.

Alexander will earn a guaranteed $1MM on the contract, MLBTR has learned. He can earn an additional $1MM worth of incentives based on innings pitched. That breakdown is as follows: $50K for 40 innings, $100K for 60 innings, $125K for 80 innings, $150K for 90 innings, $175K for 100 innings, and $200K for both 110 and 120 innings.

Alexander, 30, has pitched in parts of six big league seasons between the Tigers and Rays. He owns a career 4.55 ERA over the life of 449 frames. That includes a 5.10 mark in a career-high 107 2/3 innings with Tampa Bay last year. The Rays non-tendered him back in November rather than pay a projected $2.8MM salary in his final season of club control (hat tip to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz).

A second-round pick by the Tigers out of TCU back in 2015, Alexander has spent the bulk of his career in a swingman role, oscillating between long relief, occasional spot starts and some bulk work behind openers. He doesn’t throw hard, averaging just 89.6 mph on his four-seamer and 89.7 mph on his sinker in 2024, but he has excellent command and typically manages at least a passable strikeout rate.

Alexander has only walked 5.2% of the 1900 batters he’s faced in the majors. His 19.1% strikeout rate is about three percentage points shy of league-average, but that’s skewed a bit by a career-low 14.3% mark in 2022. He punched out 20% of his batters faced prior to that season and has fanned 21.1% of his opponents since that time. Back in 2020, Alexander made headlines and history by punching out nine consecutive batters against the Reds.

The veteran Alexander gives the Brewers some much needed depth in the rotation and a potential long man in the bullpen. That need was already clear even before today’s revelation that fellow lefty DL Hall will be shut down for several weeks due to a lat strain. Between that and the possibility that Brandon Woodruff, still building back up after major shoulder surgery in October 2023, may not be ready for Opening Day, the Brewers only had four clear-cut members of the rotation: Freddy Peralta, Aaron Civale, Nestor Cortes and Tobias Myers.

Alexander likely joins southpaw Aaron Ashby and inexperienced righties Elvin Rodriguez, Carlos Rodriguez, Logan Henderson and Chad Patrick as competitors for that final rotation spot. It’s always possible that the Brewers could add another more established arm to solidify the group, but Alexander is the first fully guaranteed free agent signing of the winter for GM Matt Arnold & Co. They’ve been up against an extreme payroll crunch and haven’t been able to spend anything to this point. That casts some doubt on the front office’s ability to further augment the group — at least via free agency. The trade market could open other avenues, either in the form of an inexpensive (likely pre-arbitration) starter or perhaps by shedding a contract from the current roster that’d free up some money for a different veteran pursuit.

Mets Re-Sign Pete Alonso

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February 12: The Mets officially announced their deal with Alonso today.

February 5: The stalemate between Pete Alonso and the Mets is over. New York is reportedly in agreement on a two-year, $54MM deal with the star first baseman. Alonso, a client of the Boras Corporation, can opt out after the upcoming season. He receives a $10MM signing bonus and a $20MM salary for 2025. He’ll essentially have a $24MM player option for the ’26 campaign. The deal comes with a $27MM average annual value for luxury tax purposes. Alonso chose the two-year deal over a separate offer from the Mets that would have guaranteed $71MM over three seasons.

Alonso, who turned 30 in December, returns to Queens for a seventh season. He has been one of the faces of the franchise since his electrifying debut. Alonso led the majors with 53 home runs en route to a runaway Rookie of the Year win in 2019. That still stands as the all-time rookie home run record. He connected on 16 longballs in the shortened follow-up season and has topped 30 homers in each of the last four years.

That’s a testament not only to his massive power but to his exceptional availability. Alonso has played at least 152 games in each of his five full seasons. He appeared in all 162 contests last year. His only career injured list stint was a minimal stay in 2023 related to a bone bruise in his left wrist. Over the last six seasons, only Marcus Semien has played in more games. Semien and Freddie Freeman are the only hitters with more plate appearances.

On a rate basis, Alonso’s production has dropped in consecutive seasons. He carried a .261/.349/.535 batting line through his first four seasons. Alonso hit another 46 homers in 2023, though he did so with career-low marks in batting average (.217) and on-base percentage (.318). His average and OBP rebounded slightly last season, but his power ticked down. Alonso hit .240 with a .329 OBP and a career-low .459 slugging percentage across 695 plate appearances. His 34 homers and 88 runs batted in were each personal worsts over a full schedule.

It was a pedestrian year rather than a bad one. There’s clear value in a player who hits 34 home runs in a relative down season. Still, it was the second straight year in which Alonso’s offensive production was below his early-career level. He’s a .229/.324/.480 hitter since the start of the ’23 campaign. That checks in 21 percentage points better than league average, as measured by wRC+.

By that statistic, Alonso ranks ninth in overall offense among the 35 first basemen with at least 750 plate appearances over the past two seasons. He’s just behind Cody Bellinger and Josh Naylor and narrowly ahead of LaMonte Wade Jr., Luis Arraez and Christian Walker. Alonso’s durability and power gives him a higher offensive ceiling than the rest of that group. Nevertheless, his recent rate metrics have put him alongside those hitters and a clear step down from Freddie Freeman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bryce Harper at the top of the position.

Alonso’s on-field value lies in the bat and his durability. He doesn’t provide baserunning value. His defensive grades at first base are middling. Defensive Runs Saved put him at three runs below par last season and has given him a +2 mark for his career. Statcast had him six runs below average in 2024 and grades him at 18 runs under par overall. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference have both valued Alonso around 2-3 wins above replacement in each of the last two seasons.

Of course, Alonso’s value to the Mets extends beyond that production. He’s a homegrown star who is already third on the organization’s home run leaderboard. He is 16 homers shy of David Wright for second place and only needs 27 longballs to surpass Darryl Strawberry for the franchise record. He’ll almost certainly break that record, likely next season.

Alonso was also a key contributor during New York’s run to last year’s NL Championship Series. He saved the season in the Wild Card series with his three-run shot off Devin Williams in the ninth inning of Game 3. That was one of four longballs he hit in October. Alonso slashed .273/.431/.568 across 58 postseason plate appearances. Modern front offices are generally wary about putting much stock in small-sample playoff numbers, though, and Alonso’s unexceptional regular season worked against him in free agency.

The four-time All-Star hit the market envisioning a strong nine-figure deal. His camp presumably sought something in the range of the Matt Olson and Freeman contracts. Olson inked an eight-year, $168MM extension with the Braves; Freeman signed a six-year, $162MM guarantee with the Dodgers, though deferrals dropped the net present value closer to $148MM.

At one point, the Mets valued Alonso similarly. Joel Sherman of the New York Post has reported that Alonso declined a seven-year, $158MM extension offer in June 2023. That would have bought out his final arbitration season and six free agent years. Alonso made $20.5MM in his last arbitration year, so he’d need to beat $137.5MM over the next six seasons to come out ahead in that decision.

Circumstances have changed significantly since the Mets made that offer. Alonso has switched his representation to the Boras Corporation. The Mets moved on from then-GM Billy Eppler and installed David Stearns at the top of baseball operations. The Brewers rarely invested heavily in first basemen, even via arbitration, during Stearns’ tenure as Milwaukee’s general manager. He’s operating with a much different payroll ceiling under Steve Cohen’s ownership, but this generally hasn’t been his preferred player archetype.

While Stearns and Cohen maintained that they wanted Alonso back, they didn’t want to do so on a long-term deal. They made the obvious decision to put forth a qualifying offer, which the slugger easily rejected. It seems they held off on going beyond three years. As his free agency dragged, Alonso moved off his desire for a long-term deal in talks with the Mets. His camp reportedly pitched a three-year term with multiple opt-out chances. Financial specifics aren’t clear, but the Mets countered with a three-year proposal in the $68-70MM range in the middle of January. After Alonso declined, the Mets signaled they were willing to move on to contingencies.

Whether the Mets actually believed Alonso would walk or were merely signaling that as negotiating leverage, they must come away pleased with the result. The Mets reportedly had two different offers on the table: a three-year, $71MM proposal or the two-year deal which he ultimately accepted. Will Sammon of The Athletic reports that the three-year term also included an opt-out after the first season and would have broken down as a $27MM salary in year one followed by $22MM salaries if he didn’t opt out. Alonso preferred the extra $3MM in the first season, betting on himself to play well enough to take the out clause next winter.

The Mets keep the term short and retain Alonso on a deal that more closely resembles the two-year contracts signed by Rhys Hoskins ($34MM with Milwaukee) and Joc Pederson ($37MM with Texas) than the Olson or Freeman precedents. It’s an ideal cap to a dangerous lineup. The Mets won the Juan Soto bidding on the record-shattering $765MM deal as the Winter Meetings were getting underway. New York brought back Jesse Winker to serve as their designated hitter, at least against right-handed pitching. That’ll keep Mark Vientos at third base for another season. Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Alvarez are key holdovers, with Jeff McNeil and one of Tyrone Taylor or Jose Siri rounding out the projected starting nine.

Keeping Vientos at third base blocks the clearest path to playing time for younger infielders Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuña and Ronny Mauricio. The latter two could push McNeil for reps at second base. They all have a minor league option remaining, so the Mets could keep all three at Triple-A Syracuse. They don’t need to make a trade — there’s a good chance Alonso will retest free agency next winter — but it’s possible the surplus makes them more willing to include an upper-level infielder in a package for a top-end starter. New York has built strong rotation depth but arguably needs to increase the rotation’s ceiling to pull ahead of the Phillies and Braves in what’ll be a tough NL East race.

The deal pushes the Mets’ projected payroll to roughly $331MM, according to the RosterResource calculations. The $27MM luxury tax hit brings them to $325MM in CBT obligations. That pushes them firmly beyond the $301MM threshold that marks the final tier of penalization. They’re taxed at a 90% clip for the approximate $3MM to push them to that threshold and at a 110% rate on spending beyond that point. The signing comes with approximately $29.1MM in taxes. They’ll pay around $59MM this season to keep Alonso. New York also relinquishes the right to the compensatory draft choice that they would have received had he signed elsewhere after declining the qualifying offer. That pick would have come after the fourth round.

Alonso secures a strong one-year salary with an eye towards a more lucrative free agent trip next winter. Players cannot receive a QO more than once in their career, so he’d hit the market without draft compensation if he opts out. He’d still come out ahead of that declined extension offer if he secures a deal worth more than $107.5MM over the ensuing five seasons. That’s by no means a guarantee, as he’ll be working against the aging curve, but it’s the kind of risk-reward play that a lot of free agents take if they don’t find their ideal long-term deal on their first free agent try.

Andy Martino of SNY first reported that the Mets were re-signing Alonso. Jeff Passan of ESPN had the two-year, $54MM guarantee and the $30MM in year one. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the signing bonus and that Alonso declined a three-year term, which USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported had a $71MM guarantee. Image courtesy of Imagn.

DL Hall Shut Down For Several Weeks With Lat Strain

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As pitchers and catchers report to spring training, news is filtering out about injuries. Brewers manager Pat Murphy passed along a discouraging update about left-hander DL Hall, per Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. The lefty has a lat strain and is going to be shut down for about the next two weeks before being re-evaluated.

That’s an uncertain path forward but it seems distinctly possible that Hall won’t be ready by Opening Day. Even if he gets some good news after this shutdown period, he will be weeks behind his fellow pitchers and might then be brought along slowly, if he and the club decide to proceed cautiously.

Murphy also recently said that Brandon Woodruff probably won’t be ready by Opening Day, as he works his way back from a shoulder surgery that wiped out his entire 2024 season. Robert Gasser had Tommy John surgery in June and will miss at least the first half of the 2025 season.

When discussing the Woodruff situation, Murphy identified Freddy Peralta, Tobias Myers, Nestor Cortes and Aaron Civale as the club’s likely front four in the rotation. MLBTR recently took a detailed look at the club’s rotation option behind those four, with Hall being one of the top candidates to fill a role in the short term.

If Hall ends up needing to miss time, Aaron Ashby could get an Opening Day nod, though there are some question marks there. Arthroscopic shoulder surgery wiped out his 2023 season. He returned last year but the results were mixed. In Triple-A, he worked mostly as a starter but didn’t fare well. He had an 8.24 ERA at the end of July when the club moved him to the bullpen. He had better results there, including a 1.37 ERA in 19 2/3 major league innings to finish the year. The club still wants to give him another chance to start but there’s plenty of uncertainty after his uneven 2024 and lost 2023.

He’ll have some competition, as Logan Henderson, Carlos Rodríguez, Chad Patrick and Elvin Rodríguez are also on the 40-man roster. However, Henderson and Patrick haven’t made their major league debuts yet, while the two Rodríguezes have less than 50 big league innings between them. Jacob Misiorowski is not on the roster but is one of the top prospects in baseball and has reached Triple-A. However, he walked 14.4% of batters he faced last year and still hasn’t hit 100 innings in a season.

Even if Hall were healthy, he would come with his own question marks. A knee sprain limited him to 84 innings last year, between the majors and minors. With the Orioles in 2022 and 2023, he was moved between the rotation and bullpen, as well as being sent to the minors and back. His workload stayed beneath 100 innings in each of those seasons as well.

As a former top 100 prospect, Hall would ideally take a step forward this year, both in terms of the quality and quantity of his results. He certainly still could, but this lat strain isn’t an ideal start to a key season for him. He is down to one option year and would be out of options going into 2026 if he gets sent to the minors for 20 days this year.

Adding an external arm to the mix could be an option but it doesn’t seem as though the Brewers are operating with a ton of payroll flexibility. RosterResource estimates them for a $116MM payroll this year. That’s already well beyond the $104MM figure they ran on Opening Day last year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. The only major league deals they’ve given out this winter have been for inexperienced arms like Elvin Rodríguez and Grant Wolfram.

Pitchers like Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana and others are still available on the open market. MLBTR recently took a look at some clubs that made sense for the remaining free agent pitchers, highlighting the Brewers even before this news about Hall’s setback, though the budgetary concerns were mentioned as an obstacle. Moving Rhys Hoskins and the $22MM he’s still owed would probably help, though that will be tough after he hit .214/.303/.419 for a wRC+ of 100 last year.

Mariners Re-Sign Jhonathan Diaz To Minor League Deal

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The Mariners have re-signed lefty Jhonathan Diaz to a minor league contract, reports Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. He’s already in camp and will be a non-roster invitee this spring.

Diaz was designated for assignment earlier this month. The M’s ultimately placed him on waivers, and the southpaw rejected an outright assignment in favor of free agency upon going unclaimed. He’s now back with the Mariners to vie for a job in camp or, likelier, to head to Triple-A Tacoma as a depth option early in the event of injuries in the big league rotation.

The 28-year-old Diaz has pitched in parts of four big league seasons — from 2021-23 with the Angels and with the Mariners in 2024. He’s totaled 45 MLB frames and carries a pedestrian 4.80 earned run average in that time. The soft-tosser has fanned just 15% of his big league opponents against an unsightly 12.6% walk rate, though his 45.7% ground-ball rate and 0.80 HR/9 mark are both solid.

While the Mariners didn’t need to lean on in-house rotation depth much in 2024 thanks to good health from Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and (to a lesser extent) Bryan Woo, Diaz still provided them a decent option in the upper minors. He started 22 games in Triple-A Tacoma and tallied 117 2/3 innings with a 4.36 ERA there. Diaz’s strikeout and walk rates in the majors have been ugly, but he whiffed 22.9% of his opponents in Tacoma last year against a 9.9% walk rate. That’s a roughly average strikeout rate and a still worse-than-average walk rate, but both are a far sight better than his MLB rates.

Diaz probably won’t be the first man up in the event of a rotation injury. Former No. 6 overall pick Emerson Hancock was the most frequently called upon reserve last year, and Seattle added righty Blas Castano to the 40-man roster earlier this winter. Top prospect Logan Evans and journeyman Casey Lawrence are also non-roster invitees this spring and could land in the Tacoma rotation to begin the year. Diaz will be in the mix though, especially if the Mariners at any point find themselves in need of multiple starters.

Tigers Trade Mason Englert To Rays

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The Rays announced Wednesday that they’ve acquired righty Mason Englert from the Tigers in exchange for minor league lefty Drew Sommers. Tampa Bay opened a 40-man roster spot by transferring southpaw Nate Lavender to the 60-day IL. Englert was designated for assignment in Detroit last week.

Englert, 25, was with the Tigers for the past two years. A Rule 5 pick from the Rangers, he stuck on the roster through the 2023 season. Once the Tigers had full control over his rights for 2024, he was shuttled between Triple-A and the majors. Over those two campaigns, he tossed 77 2/3 innings for Detroit, allowing 5.45 earned runs per nine. His 16.5% strikeout rate was subpar but he limited walks to a 6.4% clip.

Those numbers aren’t mind-blowing, but Englert was better in the minors last year. He tossed 49 2/3 innings on the farm over 32 appearances with a 3.08 ERA, 33% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate. Prior to his Rule 5 selection, he tossed 199 1/3 minor league innings over 2021 and 2022 with a 3.93 ERA, 27.7% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate.

Englert is still fairly young and has a couple of options years remaining. The major league results haven’t been there yet but the minor league numbers seem to be intriguing enough that the Rays have brought him aboard. As a club that rotates pitchers through the roster fairly frequently, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Englert moves between Triple-A and the majors throughout the coming season.

Lavender, 25, was just taken in the most recent Rule 5 draft. He had Tommy John surgery in May and likely won’t be able to return until the second half. Today’s transfer officially rules him out of the first two months of the campaign.

Though the Tigers had to bump Englert off the roster, they are at least getting something in return. Sommers, 24, was an 11th-round selection of the Rays in 2022. In 2023, he tossed 43 Single-A innings with a 2.72 ERA, 34.7% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk rate and 53.3% ground ball rate. Last year, he got bumped up to High-A and tossed 54 innings with an ERA of 4.00, 27.9% strikeout rate, 8.6% walk rate and massive 67.8% ground ball rate. He’s not considered a top prospect but will give the Tigers an intriguing lefty relief option to plug into their system.

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