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Rosenthal’s Latest: Mets, Domingo, Nationals, Kipnis

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Here are some of the latest hot stove whisperings overheard by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, detailed in his latest column (insider subscription required and highly recommended)…

  • The Mets are “weighing” four players as potential solutions to their need at second and/or third base. They’re interested in free agents Eduardo Nunez, Todd Frazier and former Met Neil Walker, while also exploring the possibility of adding Josh Harrison via trade. The latter would require the Amazins to fork over young outfielder Brandon Nimmo, according to Rosenthal’s sources. Of course, the team has all of Yoenis Cespedes, Jay Bruce and Michael Conforto under control for at least the next three seasons, and Rosenthal posits that they shouldn’t cling too tightly to a fourth outfielder if trading him could help improve their chances in 2018. Furthermore, pivoting to Walker could “spark justifiable criticism” that the Mets are reassembling a losing team; they’ve already re-signed Jose Reyes and Bruce.
  • Trade speculation surrounding Brewers outfielder Domingo Santana has spiked ever since the team acquired Christian Yelich and signed Lorenzo Cain just minutes later. But although he slugged 30 homers last season and is just 25 years of age, his trade value may not be as high as one might think. Rosenthal quotes rival executives saying that Santana is “a bad defender” and “not a winning player.” Those comments come off a bit extreme, but it’s worth noting that he struck out in nearly 30% of his plate appearances last season while being worth -5 Defensive Runs Saved in the outfield.
  • While it’s been oft-reported that Nationals GM Mike Rizzo isn’t willing to part with top prospect Victor Robles in a trade, Rosenthal suggests that the club could be willing to give up Michael Taylor if his involvement in a deal would help the club net Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto. On the other hand, some officials in the organization aren’t keen on giving up a player who’s a fairly safe option in the outfield while Adam Eaton is coming off a significant surgery and Bryce Harper is set to become a free agent next winter.
  • The Yankees reportedly showed some interest in Indians second baseman Jason Kipnis at some point this offseason. However, that interest has apparently cooled of late. While his contribution towards the luxury tax threshold isn’t significant ($8.75MM per season), his actual remaining salary ($30.5MM guaranteed over two years) might be considered somewhat of a risk for a bounce-back candidate; one rival executive says he’s worth a shot, but not at that price. The 30-year-old Kipnis spent significant time on the DL last season with shoulder and hamstring injuries, and hit just .232/.291/.414 last season when healthy.

Latest On Brewers’ Rotation

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As of now, right-handers Chase Anderson, Zach Davies and Jhoulys Chacin are the only locks for Milwaukee’s 2018 rotation, manager Craig Counsell suggested to reporters, including Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, on Sunday (Twitter link). Barring further moves, Brandon Woodruff, Brent Suter, Yovani Gallardo, Junior Guerra and Aaron Wilkerson are in line to compete for the final two sports, according to Counsell.

Conspicuously absent from that group is left-hander Josh Hader, a former starter prospect who entered the offseason with his future role in question after he dominated out of the Brewers’ bullpen as a rookie in 2017. General manager David Stearns announced Sunday that the soon-to-be 24-year-old Hader will remain a reliever to begin 2018, meaning he won’t factor into their starting competition (via McCalvy, on Twitter)

While Hader won’t be among the Brewers’ season-opening rotation possibilities, the mix seems likely to feature at least one more newcomer besides Chacin and Gallardo. Owner Mark Attanasio confirmed that’s Milwaukee’s interested in adding starting help, saying, “You can never have enough pitching and David (Stearns) is working on it.” While they’re reportedly unlikely to sign either Yu Darvish or Alex Cobb, Attanasio stated that the Brewers do have the payroll space to pick up a high-end free agent starter (Twitter links via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel).

After reeling in outfielders Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich this week, the Brewers’ commitments for 2018 come in around $92MM – a significant bump over their $63MM-plus Opening Day payrolls from 2016-17. Since 2005, Attanasio’s first season as Milwaukee’s owner, the team has twice exceeded the $100MM Opening Day payroll mark. They’d figure to blow past that figure by signing any of Darvish, Cobb, Jake Arrieta or Lance Lynn.

Beyond the four best available hurlers, free agency is lacking impact starters, which could point the Brewers toward a trade if they don’t sign one of the top names. They’ve shown reported interest this offseason in Chris Archer (Rays), Patrick Corbin (Diamondbacks) and Danny Salazar (Indians), though it’s unclear how willing any of those teams are to move those starters. There’s plenty of speculation the Brewers will try to parlay their outfield logjam into rotation help by dealing Domingo Santana, Keon Broxton and/or Brett Phillips, but it’s an open question whether any of those three would help the club land a coveted front-end starter in return.

With 2017 ace Jimmy Nelson recovering from a serious procedure (surgery on a partially torn right labrum) and unlikely to return until the summertime, it’s fair to say the Brewers could use another proven option for their rotation. Although Milwaukee’s starters finished eighth in the majors in fWAR (13.3) and 10th in ERA (4.10) during its near-playoff season in 2017, Nelson’s work over 175 1/3 innings (4.9 fWAR, 3.49 ERA) significantly contributed to those rankings. It’s now anyone’s guess what he’ll provide in 2018, which could help lead to the Brewers making a splash on the pitching market.

West Notes: Mariners, A’s, Duensing, AJax, Giants

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Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto told Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times and other reporters this week that the club’s largely content with the work it has done this winter to improve its roster. While the Mariners haven’t addressed their rotation in any noteworthy way, Dipoto’s confident their starters are at least on par with most AL rotations, “with the exception of last year’s playoff teams — the Cleveland Indians, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros.” Whether Felix Hernandez will be able to amass 25-plus starts, as opposed to the 16 he made last year, will go a long way toward deciding how Seattle will fare in 2018, Dipoto believes.

With a couple months left until the start of the season, the Mariners could still complement Hernandez & Co. with more starting help – payroll’s “not an issue,” according to CEO John Stanton. However, if we’re to take Dipoto’s word, it doesn’t seem likely. “We are doing the best we can to develop our system, not to clog it,” Dipoto said. “Could we go out and sign a free agent that would be better than our current fifth starter? Absolutely. Would that be the best thing for the present of the Mariners? Maybe. Would it be the best thing through the wider lens for the present and future of the Mariners? Probably not. We’ll be able to address those needs as we go. Because the one thing we’ve not had to deal with here is a lack of resources.”

More on a couple other West Coast clubs:

  • In search of left-handed relief help, the Athletics “made some offers to some guys; we just weren’t able to get them here,” manager Bob Melvin informed Jane Lee of MLB.com and other reporters Saturday (Twitter link). One offer went to Brian Duensing, who turned down a deal worth $3MM more than the two-year, $7MM pact he took to re-up with the Cubs, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. The A’s also attempted to pick up outfielder Austin Jackson on a one-year deal, but the Giants reeled him in with a two-year, $6MM contract. Now, Oakland’s not discussing any “significant free agents,” Slusser writes.
  • Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic has an excellent, free-to-read piece on new Giants hitting coach Alonzo Powell, who was diagnosed with prostate cancer Jan. 2 and will undergo prostate removal surgery on Tuesday. Powell’s support system includes his wife, Jana, as well as both the San Francisco and Houston organizations (he was the Astros’ assistant hitting coach from 2015-17), which Baggarly details. The Giants have been invaluable to Powell, as they took over his medical care after scans showed his cancer had spread to his bones. Had that been accurate, surgery would not have been an option for Powell, who would have instead had to go through a year of chemotherapy and radiation. But the Giants’ chief internist, Dr. Robert Murray, was skeptical of those results, and he had Powell undergo another bone scan that ultimately returned good news. After his surgery, Powell will need “daily radiation treatments for several weeks,” Baggarly writes, but the hope is he’ll be with the Giants when their pitchers and catchers report to spring training Feb. 13. We join those around the game in rooting for Powell to achieve that goal.

MLBTR Originals

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Recapping this week’s original content from MLBTR…

  • With the Nationals sorely lacking behind the plate, Kyle Downing examined potential catcher upgrades the team could acquire either via free agency or trade. The most enticing option is likely Marlins backstop J.T. Realmuto, who’d require a significant return in a deal. He’d be a vast improvement over the Nationals’ current starter, Matt Wieters, who endured a horrid season in 2017.
  • There were three poll questions at MLBTR this week, with Jeff Todd encouraging readers in the first one to grade the Giants’ offseason thus far. As it looks to bounce back from an awful year, San Francisco has added a few highly respected, accomplished veterans in Evan Longoria, Andrew McCutchen and Austin Jackson this winter. The majority of voters are fairly impressed with what they’ve done. In poll No. 2, Steve Adams asked where then-free agent Lorenzo Cain would sign. Shortly after, he joined the Brewers, who received more votes than any other club. Lastly, I requested grades for the Brewers’ acqusitions of both Cain and fellow outfielder Christian Yelich. The Brew Crew did quite well to add both players, according to those who voted in the poll.

Keon Broxton Has Minor League Option Remaining

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Contrary to popular belief, Brewers center fielder Keon Broxton is not out of minor league options, according to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. Because Broxton spent fewer than 20 days in the minors in 2017, he did not burn his final option year, McCalvy reports (Twitter link).

This normally wouldn’t be a particularly newsworthy development, but it’s interesting in Broxton’s case because he has come up as a trade candidate this offseason. Thanks in part to the Brewers’ acquisitions of fellow outfielders Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich this week, an out-of-options Broxton very easily could have found himself in another organization by the start of the season. While that still might be the case, the Brewers do have the chance to keep the soon-to-be 28-year-old around as minor league depth. If he remains a Brewer, earning a big league role at the outset of the season could be difficult with Cain, Yelich, Domingo Santana, Ryan Braun and Brett Phillips also in the fold (though Santana’s popular in the rumor mill, too).

Broxton emerged on the big league scene in 2016, overcoming a 36.1 percent strikeout rate to slash .242/.354/.430 with nine home runs and 23 stolen bases over 244 plate appearances. He also graded well in the grass, with nine Defensive Runs Saved and a 5.4 Ultimate Zone Rating. All said, Broxton was worth 2.1 fWAR that year, which was a boon to a Milwaukee club that essentially stole him from the division-rival Pirates in a December 2015 trade.

Unfortunately for Broxton and the Brewers, he went backward in 2017. While Broxton was a 20-20 player, finishing with exactly that many HRs and 21 stolen bases, he increased his already high K rate to 37.8 percent and hit a meager .220/.299/.420 across 463 PAs. Additionally, Broxton drew poor defensive marks according to DRS (minus-7) and UZR (minus-2.1), though Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric ranked him among the game’s best outfielders.

In the midst of his struggles last year, the Brewers sent Broxton to the minors in July. Because it was such a short-lived demotion, he could head back to Triple-A Colorado Springs this year if the Brewers don’t trade him. Broxton would likely have value in a deal, though, considering his upside and team control. He’s under wraps through the 2022 campaign and won’t be eligible for arbitration until at least next offseason.

NL Notes: Braves, Brewers, Braun, Marlins

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A few notes from the National League…

  • Alex Anthopoulos hasn’t made many headline-grabbing transactions this winter, his first as Atlanta’s GM, though he revealed Saturday that the Braves “kicked around trying to get a (number) one- or two-type starter.” They’re holding off on that for the time being, though, per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Jeff Schultz, who relays that the Braves are still considering adding to their bullpen and acquiring a third baseman to potentially unseat starter Johan Camargo. They’re said to have interest in free agent infielder Eduardo Nunez, one of the top third base-capable players on the market.
  • Thanks in part to their acquisitions of star outfielders Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich, the Brewers will attempt to work around their OF surplus by occasionally using Ryan Braun at first base in 2018. Interestingly, there’s also a chance Braun will factor in at second base, where the Brewers are currently lacking an obvious solution. Braun has discussed playing second with GM David Stearns, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports (via Twitter)  The 34-year-old hasn’t seen any action in the middle infield since his days as a shortstop with the Miami Hurricanes, so it seems he’d be a long shot to play much at the keystone. Indeed, McCalvy doesn’t expect Braun to be a real factor there (Twitter link).
  • Brewers pitching coach Derek Johnson told fans Sunday that the club expects right-hander Jimmy Nelson to return “around June,” McCalvy tweets. Nelson himself still isn’t willing to put a timetable on his recovery, however (Twitter link). The 28-year-old has been on the mend from the surgery he underwent on a torn labrum in September, which came as an especially unfortunate development after he emerged as one of the league’s top starters in 2017.
  • New Marlins owners Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter have drawn plenty of criticism for their payroll-slashing methods in their first offseason atop the franchise. Before securing the Marlins last year, Sherman and Jeter had to outbid a potential ownership group including Hall of Fame hurler Tom Glavine. As it turns out, had Glavine & Co. purchased the team, they would have operated similarly to how Sherman and Jeter have. Glavine told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that his faction was “of the same mind-set as to the moves that had to be made to get payroll under control.” They’d have attempted to do things differently in terms of public relations, though, with Glavine acknowledging that Sherman and Jeter haven’t “done themselves any favors from a PR standpoint.”

Poll: Grading The Brewers’ Blockbuster Moves

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For a brief time this week, the Brewers turned this maddeningly slow offseason on its head. Within a one-hour period on Thursday afternoon, Milwaukee agreed to acquire two star-caliber outfielders – free agent Lorenzo Cain and then-Marlin Christian Yelich – in moves that the club hopes will help end its five-year playoff drought in 2018. Those additions came on the heels of a year in which the Brewers were among baseball’s surprise success stories, as they entered as expected non-contenders and exited with a solid 86 wins – one fewer than Colorado, which earned the National League’s last playoff spot.

With Cain and Yelich in the fold, it would be understandable to have high expectations for the Brewers as presently constructed. Although, general manager David Stearns clearly still has work to do, particularly to improve a less-than-stellar pitching staff. Thanks in part to the Brewers’ unspectacular group of hurlers, FanGraphs is only projecting them to win 77 games at the moment. That, of course, factors in notable contributions from Cain and Yelich, who are forecast to combine for just under 7.0 fWAR.

While Stearns figures to make further moves to improve Milwaukee’s chances, including potentially dealing from the team’s outfield surplus to upgrade elsewhere, we can still offer initial judgments on the Cain and Yelich pickups. Those who follow the league know what Cain is by now – a gifted center fielder, hitter and baserunner who was likely Kansas City’s best player during his tenure there from 2012-17. Cain’s track record led the Brewers to hand him easily the offseason’s richest contract, a five-year, $80MM deal with decreasing no-trade rights as the pact progresses. Cain absolutely could live up to that payday, though red flags come in the form of his age (32 in April) and injury history (he went on the disabled list in 2012, ’13, ’14 and ’16). All things considered, did Milwaukee make the right move in signing him?

(Poll link for App users)

Grade the Cain deal
B 48.76% (10,088 votes)
A 23.14% (4,788 votes)
C 21.54% (4,457 votes)
D 4.60% (952 votes)
F 1.96% (405 votes)
Total Votes: 20,690

 

Meanwhile, at 26, Yelich has a few prime years left, and he’s under contract for all of those seasons at eminently affordable rates. Milwaukee could control Yelich through 2022 for a combined $58.25MM, and there’s nothing to suggest he won’t be worth that money. Since he became a regular in 2014, Yelich has racked up 15.9 fWAR, with FanGraphs valuing that four-year performance at a whopping $125.6MM. He could have continued to be part of the solution in Miami, but with the Marlins in the early stages of a major teardown, they figured it would make more sense to cash in their top trade chip.

Of course, given all the pluses Yelich brings to the table, prying him out of Miami wasn’t easy. To secure Yelich, the Brewers waved goodbye to four prospects – outfielders Lewis Brinson and Monte Harrison, infielder Isan Diaz and right-hander Jordan Yamamoto. In Baseball America’s newest top 100 prospect list, which came out this past Monday, Brinson ranks 18th and Harrison 75th. There are also reasons for optimism that Diaz and Yamamoto will develop into productive major leaguers, as FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote in the wake of the trade. So, it’s fair to say the Brewers took a sizable bite out of their farm system to make this deal. Was it worth it?

(Link for App users)

Grade the Yelich trade from Milwaukee's perspective
A 61.11% (11,572 votes)
B 28.33% (5,364 votes)
C 7.65% (1,449 votes)
D 1.75% (331 votes)
F 1.17% (221 votes)
Total Votes: 18,937

Dodgers Notes: Darvish, Kershaw, Utley, Kemp

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On the possibility of re-signing free agent right-hander Yu Darvish, Dodgers general manager Farhan Zaidi admitted Saturday that “there would be some hurdles for us to add any significant contracts at this point” (via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, on Twitter). Zaidi didn’t specifically cite LA’s goal to stay under the $197MM luxury tax threshold, but Plunkett notes that the club doesn’t want to get any closer to the mark than it currently is. The Dodgers already have approximately $186MM committed to their 2018 roster. With Darvish seemingly poised to sign a contract worth in the neighborhood of $25MM per year sometime during this glacial offseason, a return to the reigning NL champs obviously looks unrealistic.

Here’s more on the Dodgers, courtesy of Plunkett unless otherwise noted:

  • Darvish’s presence on the open market puts his future in question, and left-hander Clayton Kershaw could find himself in a similar position next winter if he opts out of his contract after the season. When discussing the option Friday, Kershaw said he’s focused on staying healthy in 2018, his age-30 season, and “everything will take care of itself from there.” While Kershaw is the game’s top pitcher when he’s available, back injuries limited him in both 2016 and ’17 – thus destroying his Cy Young chances in each campaign. Still, barring a disastrous 2018, it seems likely he’ll exit the final two years and $65MM of his contract in favor of securing a richer deal. Regardless of whether he hits the market in a year, Kershaw expects far more action in free agency than we’ve seen this winter – in part because teams intent on avoiding the tax (including the Dodgers) won’t have that same motivation.
  • There’s mutual interest in a reunion between the Dodgers and free agent infielder Chase Utley, as Zaidi revealed that the two sides continue to “have conversations.” As a free agent last winter, Utley stayed on the market until late February before returning to the Dodgers for $2MM. He went on to provide solid bang for LA’s buck in his age-38 campaign, during which he hit .236/.324/.405 in 353 plate appearances.
  • In an ideal world, the Dodgers would be able to dump outfielder Matt Kemp and his two-year, $43MM commitment on another club. Of course, they’ve had no luck in that department since acquiring the 33-year-old in an unusual, tax-geared trade with the Braves in December. Unless something changes by spring training, the Dodgers expect Kemp to be part of their left field competition, Zaidi informed reporters, including Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. Joc Pederson, Andrew Toles, Enrique Hernandez, Alex Verdugo and Trayce Thompson will join Kemp in vying for roles, Gurnick writes. Kemp has gotten into “great shape” this offseason, per Zaidi, who contends that “a motivated Matt Kemp can help a lot of teams in baseball, including us.” Kemp hasn’t been all that helpful to any club since 2014, when he slashed .287/.346/.506 in 599 PAs to conclude his first tenure with the Dodgers. Even then, though, Kemp’s well-known defensive limitations somewhat offset his contributions at the plate.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Brewers, Jays, Rox, Pirates, Mets, Indians

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This week in baseball blogs…

Please send submissions to ZachBBWI @gmail.com.

Phillies Sign Francisco Rodriguez To Minor League Deal

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The Phillies have signed reliever Francisco Rodriguez to a minor league contract, Jon Heyman of FanRag reports (Twitter links). Rodriguez will make $2.5MM plus incentives if he earns a spot on Philadelphia’s roster.

The 36-year-old K-Rod brings 437 career saves and a lifetime 2.86 ERA to the table, though he’s now forced to rebuild his stock after a disastrous 2017 in which he managed the worst velocity of his career. In 25 1/3 innings with the Tigers, Rodriguez pitched to an unsightly 7.82 ERA despite passable strikeout and walk rates (8.17 K/9, 3.91 BB/9). A career-low groundball rate (30.1 percent) and home run issues (3.2 per nine) helped lead to Rodriguez’s undoing in Detroit, which released him in late June. Rodriguez caught on with the Nationals a few days later, though the organization cut him in mid-July after he totaled a mere five innings in its minor league system.

Although last year was a nightmare for Rodriguez, he’s not far removed from a quality 2016 campaign in which he logged a 3.24 ERA over 58 1/3 innings with the Tigers. That season also saw Rodriguez register the highest grounder rate of his career (54.7 percent) and convert 44 of 49 save opportunities.

Rodriguez recently topped out at 93 mph while throwing for scouts, easily trumping last year’s high-80s and leading to offers from the Phillies and other clubs, per Heyman. If those gains stick, Rodriguez could emerge as a useful piece for a Phillies team whose bullpen welcomed a pair of pricey free agents – Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter – earlier this winter.

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