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Latest On Pete Alonso

By Steve Adams | January 10, 2025 at 4:20pm CDT

Pete Alonso’s market hasn’t come together the way he and agent Scott Boras had hoped just yet, though there’s still more than a month until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, leaving ample time for a deal to come together and still afford Alonso a normal spring training. One element that’s likely impacted things, as with any high-profile free agent, is trepidation from teams in terms of asking price. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com has previously suggested that the Boras Corporation has used contracts like Prince Fielder (nine years, $214MM) as a point of comparison in negotiations.

Boras firmly pushed back on that this morning in comments to SNY’s Andy Martino. Boras tells Martino that “10-year-old contract” like Fielder’s simply “is not relevant to the current Alonso negotiations.” (Fielder’s contract is actually 13 years old, though that only further hammers home the point Boras is making.)

Even with that pushback, it’s likely that years have been the holdup in talks regarding Alonso. The Mets famously offered him a seven-year, $158MM extension in 2023. That included Alonso’s final arbitration season (2024), wherein he was paid $20.5MM. He’d need to top $137.5MM over the next six seasons in order to come out ahead in that bet on himself.

Of course, that doesn’t all need to come in the form of one contract. We’ve seen plenty of free agents in the past find more tepid interest than anticipated in free agency, take an opt-out laden deal, and come out ahead over the course of multiple contracts. It’s not the ideal course of action for most players, but it can certainly work to the player’s benefit.

More specifically, that course of action has been common for both high-end and mid-level Boras clients. It doesn’t always work — just ask Jordan Montgomery — but there are plenty of success stories.

Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, Carlos Rodon and Carlos Correa are all recent examples. Chapman took a three-year, $54MM deal with opt-outs in San Francisco and mashed his way into a $151MM extension. He’ll ultimately earn $169MM over a seven-year term. Snell took two years and $62MM from the Giants last winter after reportedly rejecting a Yankees offer in the $150MM range. (He’s since contended the number was well shy of that.) He opted out and landed $182MM from the Dodgers, bringing his six-year earnings to $214MM (albeit with nearly a third of it deferred). Rodon opted out of the second season of his own two-year, $44MM deal with the Giants and cashed in with $162MM in the Bronx. Correa signed a three-year, $105.3MM deal in Minnesota, opted out and went through a strange free agent odyssey that still resulted in an additional $200MM guaranteed from Minnesota, even after a pair of failed physicals in San Francisco and Queens.

It’s not yet clear whether Alonso will ultimately go that route, but former Mets GM Jim Duquette (2003-04), now with MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM, reports that Boras and Alonso have pitched an opt-out laden three-year deal to the Mets — and the Mets alone. Even with that reported offer from the player’s camp, Duquette suggests no deal is close for now.

A three-year deal for the Mets — something in the Cody Bellinger mold — would make plenty of sense for both parties. New York would retain the NL home run leader dating back to Alonso’s big league debut and do so without needing to commit long-term to a 30-year-old first baseman who offers minimal defensive/baserunning value. Pairing Alonso and Juan Soto in the heart of the Mets’ order would be formidable.

For Alonso, he’d secure multiple seasons at an annual rate presumably higher than anything available to him on a lengthier deal. Bellinger’s $80MM deal guaranteed him $60MM over the first two seasons of the three-year term if he chose to forgo the first opt-out (which he did). An identical construct for Alonso would mean that, including the $20.5MM he earned in his final arbitration season, he could have $53MM from 2024-25 or $80.5MM from 2024-26. If the aim is to topple the $158MM he rejected in 2023 (which, again, would’ve covered the 2024-30 seasons), he’d be well on his way.

Additionally, Alonso would have the opportunity to improve on a down showing in 2024 that has surely hindered interest. The slugger didn’t have a bad season; his .240/.329/.459 slash was 22% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+. His 34 home runs were a clear plus mark. But Alonso’s past two seasons haven’t been as dominant as he was from 2019-22, when he hit a combined .261/.349/.535 (37% better than average).

A 2025 showing more in line with that form would potentially set Alonso up for a much larger payday — and do so on the heels of a premium salary in 2025. He’d also have the benefit of reentering the open market without a qualifying offer and the associated draft pick compensation hanging over his head. Players can only receive one QO in their career, and Alonso rejected one from the Mets back in November.

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New York Mets Pete Alonso

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Orioles Claim Roansy Contreras, Designate Liván Soto

By Darragh McDonald | January 10, 2025 at 4:10pm CDT

The Orioles announced that they have claimed right-hander Roansy Contreras off waivers from the Reds. Cincinnati had designated him for assignment earlier this week. In order to open a roster spot, the O’s designated infielder Liván Soto for assignment.

Contreras, 25, has been bouncing around the league over the past year. That’s likely a reflection of his uneven performance and out-of-options status. He made his major league debut with the Pirates and had some intriguing results with them, but exhausted his final option in 2023. He opened last year with Pittsburgh but was designated for assignment in May and flipped to the Angels. He spent the rest of the season with the Halos but was put on waivers in October and claimed by the Rangers. He went to the Reds on another waiver claim last month and has now been claimed again.

A notable Yankee prospect, Contreras was flipped to Pittsburgh in the January 2021 trade that sent Jameson Taillon to the Bronx. In 2022, he seemed to establish himself as a viable big league starter. He made 21 appearances for the Pirates that year, 18 of those being starts, tossing 95 innings while allowing 3.79 earned runs per nine. His 21.1% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate were fairly close to league par while his fastball averaged 95.6 miles per hour. Since he was only 22 years old at the time, it seemed fair to expect that was just the beginning.

But things have soured since then. Contreras posted a 6.59 ERA in 2023, which prompted the Bucs to send him to the minors, burning his final option. They moved him to a primary relief role in 2024 but, as mentioned, bumped him off the roster in May.

Between the Bucs and the Angels, he had some passable but not outstanding results. He finished the year with 68 1/3 innings between the two clubs and a 4.35 ERA. But his 18.8% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate were both subpar. His .265 batting average on balls in play and 75.1% strand rate were both on the fortunate side, leading to his 5.16 FIP and 4.55 SIERA being worse than his ERA.

Despite the up-and-down results, Contreras is still young and throws hard, averaging almost 95 mph last year with both his four-seamer and his sinker. He has just over two years of MLB service time, meaning he can be retained for four seasons before he would qualify for free agency. The fact that he is out of options means that he’ll need a roster spot on Opening Day but the Orioles could also try to run him through waivers later in the offseason to retain him as non-roster depth.

As for Soto, 25 in June, the Orioles seem to engaging in some sort of contest to see how many times they can bump him on and off the roster. This is the sixth time he’s been designated for assignment in the past year, three of those coming at the hands of the Orioles, two from the Angels and one from the Reds.

He has a strong .351/.407/.494 batting line, though in a small sample of 87 plate appearances over the past three big league seasons. In 370 Triple-A plate appearances last year, he slashed .283/.377/.381 for a 103 wRC+. He didn’t produce much power, hitting four homers in 88 games, but his 12.4% walk rate and 16.8% strikeout rate were both strong numbers.

The O’s will now have a week to either trade Soto or run him through waivers. Since the waiver process takes 48 hours, any trade talks would need to come together in the next five days. He still has one option year and plenty of minor league experience at the three infield positions to the left of first base. He seems to be a popular depth target around the league so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him acquired by another club in the coming days.

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Baltimore Orioles Cincinnati Reds Transactions Livan Soto Roansy Contreras

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Diamondbacks Claim René Pinto

By Anthony Franco | January 10, 2025 at 3:21pm CDT

The D-backs announced Friday that they’ve claimed catcher René Pinto off waivers from the Orioles. Baltimore designated him for assignment a week ago to create roster space for free agent signee Charlie Morton. Arizona already had two open spots on their 40-man roster, so there’s no corresponding move.

Pinto changes hands for the second time this offseason. Baltimore had claimed him off waivers from the Rays within days of the end of the World Series. Their subsequent signing of Gary Sánchez to an $8.5MM free agent deal indicated that Pinto’s tenure with the O’s could be brief. The 28-year-old is out of minor league options. Baltimore couldn’t send him to Triple-A without exposing him to waivers. The Orioles will go with Adley Rutschman and Sánchez as their duo behind the plate.

While Pinto has a better chance of holding his roster spot in Arizona, that’s by no means guaranteed. Gabriel Moreno is locked in as the starter. Jose Herrera has spent parts of three seasons as the backup. Herrera is also out of options. It’s unlikely that the Diamondbacks will carry three catchers into the regular season. The Snakes could let Pinto and Herrera compete for the #2 job during Spring Training.

Alternatively, Adrian Del Castillo could squeeze them both off the roster. He had a monster year in Triple-A (.312/.399/.603) and hit .313/.368/.525 in his first 25 big league games. Del Castillo isn’t considered an especially strong defender, however, so the Snakes could use him as a multi-positional bench bat rather than risk thinning their catching depth by waiving Herrera and Pinto.

Pinto is a right-handed hitter who has appeared in parts of three MLB seasons for Tampa Bay. He owns a .231/.263/.404 slash with 10 homers across 237 career plate appearances. Pinto showed some power in a small sample in 2023. That earned him the Opening Day catching assignment last season, but he struggled behind the dish. Opponents went 18-19 in stolen base attempts over just 135 innings. Pinto also committed a passed ball and was behind the plate for seven wild pitches.

Tampa Bay optioned him and kept him in Triple-A for the rest of the season. He hit just .191/.257/.373 over 53 games with their top affiliate and was never called back up. Pinto’s broader offensive track record in the minors is more impressive. He’s a .253/.303/.487 hitter across 907 Triple-A plate appearances spanning four seasons.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Baltimore Orioles Transactions Rene Pinto

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Phillies Outright Jose Cuas

By Steve Adams | January 10, 2025 at 1:24pm CDT

Right-handed reliever Jose Cuas went unclaimed on waivers and was assigned outright to Triple-A Lehigh Valley, MLBTR has learned. He was originally designated for assignment back on Dec. 23, but the holidays freeze up the waiver/DFA process every year, leading to prolonged stints in limbo for a handful of players. Cuas will stick with the Phillies as a non-roster player and be in big league camp this spring as he hopes to compete for another look in the majors.

Cuas, 30, was a September waiver claim out of the Blue Jays organization. He didn’t pitch for the Phillies during the season after joining the organization. He logged a combined 16 1/3 innings between the Jays and Cubs, working to a 7.71 ERA in that small sample. Cuas has pitched 119 1/3 innings in the big leagues and sports a career 4.37 ERA with a 22% strikeout rate, a 12.9% walk rate and a solid 45.2% ground-ball rate.

From 2022-23, Cuas pitched 103 innings for the Royals and Cubs — the first big league experience of his career. During that time, the former infielder notched a tidy 3.84 ERA while fanning 22.2% of his opponents against a 12.5% walk rate. In parts of four Triple-A seasons, the sidearming righty carries a 4.12 ERA, 27.4% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate.

Cuas’ journey in baseball has been one of the least traditional you’ll encounter, as chronicled at great length by Alec Lewis of The Athletic a couple years back in a must-read piece for fans of players endure extensive minor league grinds. An 11th-round draft pick by the Brewers as an infielder back in 2015, he was out of baseball a few years later and working as a FedEx driver during the day while training with his brother after dark in freezing weather. Cuas had washed out as a hitter and briefly tinkered with a move to the mound in 2018, but he was released by the Brewers midseason.

Cuas pitched indie ball in 2018 and ’19, parlaying a strong run in the Atlantic League into a minor league look with the D-backs. In 2020, a couple months after the league shut down due to the pandemic, he was released. One of his former D-backs coaches reached out to get Cuas a look in the Dominican Winter League the following offseason. It didn’t lead to a big league deal. He went back to the Atlantic League — this time catching the attention of the Royals, who eventually have him his MLB debut in 2022.

Now sporting more than two full years of big league service, Cuas has pitched in each of the past three MLB seasons. He’s obviously yet to solidify himself as a consistent contributor, but the mere fact that he’s reached this point is somewhat incredible, given his move from the infield to the mound, multiple stints in independent ball, and multiple releases from big league organizations.

With the Phillies, Cuas could have to bide his time before an opportunity arises. Philadelphia has a very veteran bullpen, with young Orion Kerkering (one year of MLB service) and lefty Tanner Banks (2.092 years) the only members under four full years of big league service. Kerkering and Banks are the only two members who can even be optioned, but they’re both locked into spots after nice 2024 seasons. Cuas will join lefty Nick Vespi and righty Cody Stashak as players with some notable big league experience who’ll be non-roster invitees in Phillies camp.

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Philadelphia Phillies Transactions Jose Cuas

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A’s Open To Further Rotation Additions

By Steve Adams | January 10, 2025 at 11:48am CDT

The Athletics have been quite active this offseason but aren’t necessarily done adding to the roster. General manager David Forst tells Jessica Kleinschmidt of the A’s Radio Network that he’s still hopeful to make another addition or two, specifically mentioning the rotation as one possible area.

Ahead of their 2025 move to West Sacramento, the A’s have signed Luis Severino and Gio Urshela, acquired Jeffrey Springs, and extended Brent Rooker. The team’s rotation now features Severino, Springs, JP Sears, Joey Estes and Mitch Spence. Other candidates on the 40-man roster include J.T. Ginn, Osvaldo Bido, Gunnar Hoglund, Jacob Lopez and Ryan Cusick. Lefty Ken Waldichuk and righty Luis Medina are on the mend from Tommy John surgery and will open the season on the injured list, but the former could be an option in the second half. (Medina’s surgery was performed in August, likely taking him out through the end of the 2025 season.)

The flurry of offseason dealings has “boosted” the Athletics’ payroll to … $64.5MM in terms of total salary owed. Their luxury ledger is a bit higher, thanks in large part to the fact that Severino and Rooker are on backloaded deals. RosterResource projects the A’s around $97MM in CBT considerations. They’re reportedly aiming to pull north of $105MM in hopes of avoiding a grievance from the MLBPA tied to the appropriation of the funds the team receives through revenue-sharing. The A’s previously lost their revenue-sharing status for similar reasons and were only reinstated as a recipient under the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement. They haven’t topped $83MM in luxury obligations since.

Some free agents will balk at the notion of playing their games in a Triple-A park, though as the A’s showed with Severino, that can be bridged with a far more substantial contract than most expected entering the winter. Forst’s club feels like a particularly good fit to take on a somewhat unwanted contract in the rotation as well.

The D-backs would welcome the opportunity to shed Jordan Montgomery’s $22.5MM salary. Ditto the Phillies and Taijuan Walker (two years, $36MM) and, presumably, Tigers and Kenta Maeda ($10MM in 2025). The Yankees are shopping Marcus Stroman ($18MM in 2025, conditional $18MM player option for 2026 if he pitches 140 innings) and are willing to pay down some salary. The Cardinals could move Steven Matz and the final $12MM he’s owed in the last season of a four-year deal. The Twins are open to offers on Chris Paddack and his $7.5MM as they look to scale back spending. Rangers righty Jon Gray ($13MM) has seen his name kicked around the rumor circuit this winter as well. Put more concisely, there’s no shortage of arms who’d fit that bill, but the list of clubs willing to take on such a contract isn’t large. That puts the A’s in a decent position.

Another addition to the rotation would further make the A’s more respectable than many will give them credit for entering 2025. A rotation fronted by Severino, Springs, Sears and a to-be-determined outside acquisition could at least be competitive, health permitting. The lineup features not only the excellent Rooker but emerging outfield contributors JJ Bleday and Lawrence Butler. Catcher Shea Langeliers only posted a .288 OBP but swatted 29 homers this past season. Young players like Jacob Wilson, Tyler Soderstrom and Zack Gelof have shown potential. Mason Miller is one of the game’s premier closers.

Based on that foundation, it’s at least within the realm of possibility that the A’s emerge as a surprise club in 2025. That makes any forthcoming additions all the more interesting. The team’s budget for the actual cash payroll isn’t known, but their current $64.5MM projection is about $1.5MM ahead of last year’s paltry $63MM mark.

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Athletics

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Yankees Willing To Pay Down Salary In Marcus Stroman Trade

By Steve Adams | January 10, 2025 at 11:18am CDT

Marcus Stroman entered the offseason as a logical trade candidate and became an even more likely player to change hands when the Yankees signed Max Fried to an eight-year contract. Recent reports have unsurprisingly indicated that New York is indeed shopping Stroman, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds further context, writing that the Yanks are willing to pay down a portion of Stroman’s $18MM salary to help facilitate a deal.

With Gerrit Cole, Fried, Carlos Rodon, Clarke Schmidt and 2024 AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil in the rotation, Stroman is very arguably their sixth-best rotation arm right now. That’s not optimal for a player who’s not only guaranteed $18MM this coming season but who also carries a conditional player option for the 2026 campaign. If Stroman pitches 140 innings in 2025 — he’s averaged more than 150 frames per 162-game season dating back to 2019 — he’d pick up an $18MM player option for 2026 as well. That only creates extra urgency for the Yankees to move him, as the five names ahead of Stroman on the depth chart are all signed/controlled beyond the 2025 season.

The Yankees already traded one starter after signing Fried (Nestor Cortes), and they’re in the market for either a second baseman or third baseman. They’re reportedly not working with the limitless budget some might expect from the “Evil Empire,” so shedding Stroman’s salary — or a portion of the deal — would give GM Brian Cashman some additional funds in his pursuit of infield help.

The Braves, A’s and Angels are just a few of the teams still seeking rotation help this offseason. Stroman might be New York’s fifth- or sixth-best starter right now, but that’s not the case with many other potential suitors. Stroman is coming off a decent 4.31 ERA in 154 2/3 innings in his first (and possibly only) season with the Yankees. He was hit hard by lefties, in particular, which didn’t play well with Yankee Stadium’s short right field porch; Stroman logged a 5.31 ERA at home compared to a 3.09 mark on the road. A team with a more favorable pitchers’ stadium might view him as a good bet to provide average or better innings at a low cost of acquisition. And in a market where 37-year-old Alex Cobb and 41-year-old Charlie Morton are commanding $15MM salaries on one-year deals — Cobb on the back of a season wherein he made only three starts — Stroman’s salary isn’t exactly egregious.

The Yankees’ willingness to pay down some of Stroman’s salary also inherently signals a willingness to take on a contract of some note in return. That creates a myriad potential frameworks; New York has some interest in Luis Arraez, for instance. He has more trade value than Stroman, but the comparable salaries could make the financial component easy to work out if the Yankees are willing to add the right pieces. Conversely, the Reds would probably welcome the opportunity to shed the $15MM owed to Jeimer Candelario in each of the next two seasons. The Tigers can’t love the $10MM they still owe Kenta Maeda, and he has more experience working in the ’pen than Stroman. Those are entirely speculative scenarios, to be extra clear, but they’re they type of creative situations Cashman and his team can explore when trying to find a Stroman fit.

As things stand, Stroman feels like one of the likeliest players around the league to change hands between now and Opening Day. He’s a pricey veteran without a clear role on his current club but is still relatively productive and not egregiously overpriced when looking at the rest of the market. His current club also has other obvious needs and some degree of financial parameters within which is has to operate.

The Yankees are currently at a projected $303MM worth of luxury tax obligations, per RosterResource. Any subsequent additions to the payroll will come with a 110% tax. Shedding Stroman’s deal would drop them beneath the fourth (and highest) threshold, which sits at $301MM. The third penalty tier (from $281-301MM) comes with a slightly lesser 95% tax rate. In essence, every dollar they save on Stroman’s contract will amount to about $1.95 saved. That only creates more benefit to finding a fit on the trade market.

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New York Yankees Marcus Stroman

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

By Anthony Franco | January 10, 2025 at 10:43am CDT

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers! Anthony took questions on the Reds' budget, Dylan Cease trade proposals, the Brewers' lineup, Nathaniel Lowe's extension candidacy, Nick Pivetta landing spots, the frequency of relievers getting rotation chances, the Braves' ceiling, and much more.

 

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Front Office Originals MLBTR Chats Membership

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Poll: Where Will Tanner Scott Sign?

By Nick Deeds | January 10, 2025 at 10:30am CDT

After staying cold for the majority of the offseason, the free agent market has finally begun to heat up for relievers this week with veteran right-handers Chris Martin and Andrew Kittredge both agreeing to one-year deals. They join previous deals for Aroldis Chapman, Blake Treinen, and Yimi Garcia among the major signings of the winter among late-inning relief arms, but a number of the top arms on the market remain available at this point. Chief among those options is left-hander Tanner Scott, who enjoyed a breakout season in 2023 with the Marlins and built on that last year to deliver a dominant platform campaign in Miami and San Diego.

Scott’s fantastic work over the past two seasons, when he’s pitched to a combined 2.04 ERA (224 ERA+) with a 2.53 ERA with a 31.3% strikeout rate in 150 innings of work, has catapulted him to the pinnacle of the market for relief arms in his first trip through free agency this winter. At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR predicted that Scott would land a four-year, $56MM deal. Even that hefty price tag may have been light, as reporting has indicated that Scott could receive a multi-year deal in the realm of $20MM annually.

That would seemingly put him in line with the other top closers on the market in recent years, Josh Hader and Edwin Diaz, at least in terms of average annual value. The largest guarantee for a reliever in MLB history went to Diaz, who signed a five-year, $102MM deal ($20.4MM AAV). That contract contained considerable deferrals, however, and by measure of net present value was valued closer to $93MM. Hader signed a five-year deal worth $95MM without deferred money ($19MM AAV). It would be a surprise if Scott managed to surpass the guarantees Hader and Diaz landed, but the AAV is more feasible (especially on a three-year deal).

Scott is a few months older than Hader was at the time of his deal and more than a year older than Diaz was. He also simply lacks the track record of the other two. Hader and Diaz were multi-time All-Stars with top-10 Cy Young finishes who’d spent virtually their entire careers as late-inning arms. Scott was a middle reliever for the first several seasons of his career, with a 4.61 ERA (95 ERA+) and a 3.91 FIP entering his breakout 2023 campaign.

Rumblings on Scott haven’t been particularly prolific this winter, but a few teams have been connected to the southpaw. The Yankees were reportedly in the mix earlier this winter, though their addition of closer Devin Williams, current need for an infielder, and reportedly limited budget space going forward could take them out of the running. On the other hand, if they can trade Marcus Stroman, that might make them more amenable to another splash in the ’pen. The Dodgers have been the team most frequently connected to Scott, while the Mets reportedly held a meeting with him recently. The Braves and Red Sox have been at least loosely connected to Scott as well.

The Dodgers make plenty of sense after a season where they struggled to find consistency in the ninth inning. Their late-inning mix is currently headlined by a combination of Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, and Treinen. That trio all throw from the right side, making Scott a nice addition as a dominant southpaw to pair with fellow lefty Alex Vesia.

The Mets surely find the idea of pairing Scott with Diaz tantalizing. It’d be understandable if Diaz’s lost 2023 season and struggles in the first half of 2024 led the club to be a bit cautious when it comes to lengthy deals for relievers, but those factors may also reinforce the value of adding another shutdown arm who can help keep the bullpen afloat if Diaz is injured or struggling.

The Red Sox entered the winter in need of high-leverage relief help after losing Martin and Kenley Jansen to free agency, and expressed a clear preference for adding a lefty to the mix. That made Scott a seemingly ideal fit for the club, but they struck quickly in free agency by adding Chapman. They remain involved in the relief market, but it’s unclear whether they’re still pursuing Scott specifically.

Perhaps the most interesting sleeper is Atlanta. It’s been an extremely quiet winter for the Braves. By this time last year, they’d already swung trades for Aaron Bummer, Jarred Kelenic, and Chris Sale, extended both Sale and Pierce Johnson, and signed Joe Jimenez and Reynaldo Lopez in free agency. This winter has been quiet outside of trading Jorge Soler in a salary dump deal and restructuring the contracts of Lopez and Bummer. Atlanta’s most significant addition is a split contract for outfielder Bryan De La Cruz. The Braves generally aren’t shy about paying heavy per-year salaries in the bullpen, and with Raisel Iglesias ticketed for free agency next winter and Jimenez likely out for the season, perhaps the club could look to Scott to fortify the bullpen in the short-term before taking over as the closer in future seasons.

There are, of course, other speculative fits to consider — even if they’ve yet to be specifically linked to Scott. The D-backs still want a closer and already made one surprising free-agent grab when they inked Corbin Burnes. The Blue Jays keep finishing runner-up on all their pursuits; could they eventually pivot to a big bullpen splash? The Giants have been tied to Pete Alonso recently and were in on Burnes before he signed in Arizona; they clearly still have some money to spend, even after signing Justin Verlander.

So, where will Scott end up? And will he approach or even exceed the deals landed by Hader and Diaz in free agency, or hew more closely to MLBTR’s $56MM prediction at the outset of free agency? Have your say in the polls below:

Where Will Tanner Scott End Up?
Mets 29.01% (2,913 votes)
Dodgers 20.06% (2,015 votes)
Red Sox 16.04% (1,611 votes)
Other (specify in comments) 14.62% (1,468 votes)
Braves 13.25% (1,331 votes)
Yankees 7.02% (705 votes)
Total Votes: 10,043
How Much Will Tanner Scott Sign For?
Between $40MM and $60MM 52.38% (3,372 votes)
Between $61MM and $94MM 28.35% (1,825 votes)
Under $40MM 16.30% (1,049 votes)
$95MM or more 2.97% (191 votes)
Total Votes: 6,437
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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Tanner Scott

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Pirates Sign Caleb Ferguson

By Darragh McDonald | January 10, 2025 at 9:05am CDT

The Pirates added to their pitching staff Friday, announcing a one-year deal with free agent left-hander Caleb Ferguson that will reportedly pay the Excel Sports client $3MM. The Bucs have open roster spots and thus do not need to make a corresponding move.

Ferguson, 28, has been a solid southpaw reliever in the big leagues for a few years now. He missed the 2021 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery but put up good numbers in the three seasons before that, followed by the three seasons after the procedure. Overall, he has logged 261 2/3 innings, allowing 3.68 earned runs per nine. His 9.4% walk rate is a bit higher than average but barely so, while his 27.5% strikeout rate is a few ticks better than par and his 45.6% ground ball rate above average as well.

His ERA ticked up a bit in 2024, though a deep dive on the numbers suggests he was as effective as before, with bad luck contributing to the extra runs allowed. Between the Yankees and Astros, he tossed 54 1/3 innings with a 4.64 ERA. But his 26.9% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate and 46.7% ground ball rate were all pretty close to his career norms. His .340 batting average on balls in play and 66.6% strand rate were both on the unfortunate side of average, which is why metrics like his 3.74 FIP and 3.43 SIERA were closer to his career ERA.

He’s a sensible pickup for the Pirates, who lost each of Aroldis Chapman, Jalen Beeks and Ryan Borucki to free agency at season’s end. The departure of those three southpaws left them with Joey Wentz, a September waiver claim with a 5.56 career ERA, as the only lefty reliever on the roster. Ferguson immediately becomes the top southpaw in Pittsburgh’s bullpen.

That doesn’t mean he’ll be limited to a specialty role, as his splits aren’t too drastic. He has naturally been better against left-handed hitters, holding them to a line of .231/.333/.375 in his career, but righties have been only marginally more effective against him with a .245/.321/.381 line. He has earned six saves and 49 holds in his career, so perhaps he will step into a setup role, depending on what other moves the Pirates make for their bullpen this winter.

There also seems to be some possibility of Ferguson ending up in the rotation, as MLB.com’s Alex Stumpf reports that the Bucs will stretch him out in spring training. That would be an interesting pivot for Ferguson, as he has almost exclusively been in the bullpen in his big league career. He does have 14 starts on his ledger, but most of those were of the “opener” variety for just an inning or two.

He did come up as a starter in the minor leagues, however, so it wouldn’t be totally foreign to him. As mentioned, he has fairly neutral splits, perhaps allowing him to pitch through a full lineup. He also has a fairly diverse pitch mix for a reliever. Per Statcast, he threw four different pitches at least 9.8% of the time last year: a four-seamer, sinker, cutter and slurve. He didn’t lean on any one pitch too much, topping out at 43.3% usage with the four-seamer. Statcast also categorized 0.2% of his pitches as a sweeper.

Converting relievers into starters has been a popular trend in recent years, with guys like Seth Lugo, Michael King, Garrett Crochet and Reynaldo López some of the better success stories. On the other hand, the results with Jordan Hicks were mixed and the A.J. Puk conversion was quickly abandoned.

It’s an understandable gambit, given the high prices of starting pitchers, as even fliers on high-risk guys have been getting into eight-figure territory this winter. Walker Buehler got $21.05MM coming off a bad year. Guys like Alex Cobb and Justin Verlander got $15MM despite being fairly old by big league standards and coming off injury-marred seasons.

Making a $3MM investment in Ferguson and turning him into a passable backend starter could be a nice bit of business, but there are reasons to think it might not come to pass. As mentioned, the Bucs have an obvious need for a lefty reliever, whereas the rotation is the strongest part of the roster. They are going into the season with a strong starting core of Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Mitch Keller, with guys like Bailey Falter, Johan Oviedo, Mike Burrows, Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler and Thomas Harrington all candidates for the back end.

The simplest and perhaps most likely outcome is that the Bucs simply use those guys in the rotation and move Ferguson to the bullpen, but there’s little harm in stretching him out in the spring to see what it looks like. It’s far easier to go from long outings to short ones early in the year, as opposed to getting stretched out midseason. The spring is the right time to do a little experimenting, as Ferguson can easily slide to the bullpen if it doesn’t work out or if the Pirates ultimately prefer other arms in that role.

At the very least, stretching Ferguson as a starter in spring training could open the door for him to function as a true multi-inning bullpen piece. He worked more than one inning on 11 occasions last year — more with Houston post-trade than with the Yankees prior — but topped out at two innings. Given his pitch mix and neutral splits, it’s not out of the question that he could have success working in slightly longer relief outings while also keeping the door cracked for the occasional spot start or opener assignment in the event of a bullpen game.

Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette first reported the agreement. Alex Stumpf of MLB.com first reported the terms of the deal.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions Caleb Ferguson

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The Opener: Orioles, Extensions, Red Sox

By Steve Adams and Nick Deeds | January 10, 2025 at 8:54am CDT

With the deadline for players and teams to exchange figures to file for arbitration now behind us, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on this weekend:

1. Orioles 40-man roster move incoming:

The Orioles made a move on the relief market last night, agreeing to terms with right-hander Andrew Kittredge on a one-year, $10MM deal that includes a club option for 2026. The move adds a veteran reliever with late-inning experience who can help set up for Félix Bautista alongside Yennier Cano, Seranthony Domínguez, and Gregory Soto. In order for the signing to be made official, however, the Orioles will have to first clear a 40-man roster spot that can then be given to Kittredge. Typically, that will involve a club designating a player for assignment, though occasionally clubs will work out a trade to create the necessary vacancy.

Speaking of Orioles 40-man moves, they’ll get clarity on their recent DFA of catcher René Pinto at some point today. Baltimore signed right-hander Charlie Morton to a one-year deal seven days ago and designated the 28-year-old Pinto for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Pinto appeared in each of the last three seasons with the Rays but was claimed off waivers by the Orioles in early November. Now that a full week has passed he’ll either be claimed by another club or outrighted to Triple-A Norfolk, where the Orioles would be able to stash him as non-roster depth for the 2025 campaign.

2. Multi-year talks for players who exchanged figures?

Seventeen players exchanged salary arbitration figures with their teams yesterday after failing to come to terms on a deal prior to yesterday’s filing deadline. Those teams and players can continue to negotiate, as the figures exchanged merely set the potential price outcomes to be determined in an arbitration hearing. A deal can still be hammered out for any and all of those 17 players before hearings begin next month. Most clubs, however, employ a file-and-trial approach, meaning they no longer discuss straight one-year agreements once figures are exchanged.

That leaves open the possibility of negotiating a multi-year deal (or a one-year deal with an option, as the option year effectively renders it a multi-year deal and makes that agreement irrelevant as a data point/comp for arbitration negotiations in future offseasons). In all likelihood, at least a few of the players who exchanged figures will come to terms either on a true multi-year deal or on a one-year deal with an option — eliminating the need for a hearing. The Cardinals at least discussed multi-year deals with Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar this week, for instance. Just logically speaking, a two-year deal for someone like Washington’s Nathaniel Lowe — locking in his final two arbitration seasons — could make sense for both the team and player.

High-profile impending free agents like Kyle Tucker and Michael King seem quite unlikely to sign extensions (Tucker in particular) and seem destined for a hearing. However, talks for the majority of the players in this group of 17 figure to continue as clubs and players look to avoid a hearing.

3. Red Sox to host Fenway Fest this weekend:

The Red Sox are hosting Fenway Fest, the club’s winter fan event, tomorrow from 9am to 5pm local time at Fenway Park. Tomorrow will mark the first installment of Fenway Fest, which was announced last month as a replacement for the club’s previous two-day Winter Weekend event that began in 2015. Notably, chief baseball office Craig Breslow, team president Sam Kennedy, and team owner John Henry are not scheduled to appear at tomorrow’s event after appearing at previous Winter Weekend events (perhaps unsurprisingly so; Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic notes that ownership was roundly booed at each of the past two winter fan fest events).

This year’s event includes appearances by manager Alex Cora and a number of coaches as well as a long list of players and prospects that includes recently-acquired starter Garrett Crochet. Aside from player and personnel appearances, the event also includes a preview of the upcoming Netflix documentary covering the 2024 Red Sox. More details regarding the event, including ticket pricing, can be found here via MLB.com.

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The Opener

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