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Ricky Tiedemann To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Blue Jays pitching prospect Ricky Tiedemann will undergo Tommy John surgery on Tuesday, manager John Schneider told reporters (including The Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath).  It is a traditional TJ procedure rather than the increasingly popular brace procedure, and as a result Tiedemann will probably miss the entire 2025 season.

Tiedemann left a Triple-A outing on July 10 due to tightness in his left forearm, and had reportedly received multiple opinions about how to proceed with the injury.  Such a situation usually hints that surgery is being considered, and unfortunately for Tiedemann, he’ll now face the toughest setback yet of a pro career that has already been marked by injuries.

A third-round pick for Toronto in the 2021 draft, Tiedemann quickly got himself on the top-100 prospect radar with an impressive 2022 season that saw him go from A-ball to high-A to Double-A over the course of the year (totaling 78 2/3 innings).  He was limited to only 44 frames in 2023, however, due to biceps and shoulder injuries, though Tiedemann did make his Triple-A debut with a single start for Buffalo.  Calf and hamstring soreness slowed his work in Spring Training, and a bout of ulnar nerve inflammation sidelined him on Buffalo’s injured list earlier this season, which now looks like a precursor to his Tommy John surgery.  Tiedemann has thrown 17 1/3 innings spread over three minor league levels in 2024, with a 5.19 ERA and an unpalatable 19.28% walk rate.

All told, Tiedemann has thrown only 140 minor league innings over three professional seasons, plus 18 more frames in the 2023 Arizona Fall League.  He’ll only nominally add to that total during whatever minor league rehab work comes in 2025, and a Major League debut that at one point seemed likely in 2023 has now almost surely been pushed back to 2026.

Tiedemann doesn’t turn 22 until next month so youth is on his side, and he can certainly still be viewed as a key piece of the Blue Jays’ future.  But obviously, it is anyone’s guess as to how the southpaw will bounce back after essentially two lost seasons of development, not to mention how his elbow may or may not hold up in the aftermath of a TJ procedure.  Though Tiedemann has yet to reach the big leagues, there are some comparisons here to another highly-touted Jays pitching prospect in Nate Pearson, who has been used exclusively as a reliever in the last two seasons due to health concerns.  (Ironically, Pearson’s Jays tenure ended today when he was dealt to the Cubs.)

Losing Tiedemann to major UCL surgery only adds to the Blue Jays’ all-around disappointment of a 2024 season.  Expecting to contend and reach the playoffs for the fourth time in five seasons, Toronto has instead sputtered to a 47-56 record, and only five teams have a worse winning percentage than the Jays’ .456 mark.  The trades of Pearson and Yimi Garcia have signaled that a retool is coming at the trade deadline, and while the team reportedly still plans to reload for another shot at contention in 2025, plenty of questions have to be asked about whether this strategy is viable, or if Schneider or GM Ross Atkins are the people best fit to get Toronto back to winning baseball.

The lack of minor league support is one strike against the Jays’ reload plans, as the club hasn’t been able to generate much in the way of in-house talent.  Tiedemann and Orelvis Martinez are the only two Blue Jays players in MLB Pipeline’s current top 100 prospects list, and Tiedemann is now slated for TJ surgery while Martinez is serving an 80-game PED suspension.

Rangers Interested In Isaac Paredes

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With Randy Arozarena and Zach Eflin traded in the last two days, the Rays have already gotten a jump on retooling and cutting payroll even as the team still has a respective .500 (52-52) record.  Isaac Paredes is another name who has gotten a lot of attention in the trade market, and ESPN’s Buster Olney (via X) reports that the Rangers have talked to the Rays about Paredes, in addition to their previously reported interest in Yandy Diaz.

Both the Astros and Mariners have also been linked to Paredes’ market, so the All-Star infielder is generating a lot of interest within the AL West alone now that the Rangers have also joined the mix.  It isn’t surprising that clubs around baseball are checking in on a player with Paredes’ combination of age (25), affordability, team control, and obvious ability on the diamond.

Paredes has blossomed over his three seasons in Tampa, including his 16 homers and .249/.356/.441 slash line over 421 plate appearances this season.  The translates to a 132 wRC+, only a touch below Paredes’ 137 mark over 571 PA in 2023.  Beyond the offense, Paredes has primarily played third base with generally around average fielding grades depending on your metric of choice, but he has also gotten a good chunk of time at first base and (prior to this season) time at second base.

It is safe to say Paredes would primarily stick to the hot corner if he landed with the Rangers, as regular third baseman Josh Jung has missed almost the entire season due to wrist surgery, and then a subsequent shutdown from a minor league rehab assignment due to continued soreness.  Jung restarted a new rehab stint just yesterday (going 1-for-3 with Double-A Frisco) but is still likely a week or two away from rejoining the lineup, given how he’ll need some space to get his timing back after such a long layoff.

Josh Smith’s excellent play at third base has helped Texas manage Jung’s absence to some extent, and the left-handed hitting Smith pairs nicely with the right-handed hitting Paredes.  That same platoon factor could give Paredes some time at first base when a left-handed starter is on the mound, thus giving the Rangers opportunity to sit Nathaniel Lowe.  Even if Jung did return relatively soon in August, that still doesn’t create any real playing time crunch, since the Rangers could rotate any of these players into the DH spot to everyone playing on more or less an everyday basis.

Paredes is a Super Two player, and is earning $3.4MM this season in the first of four arbitration-eligible seasons.  Adding Paredes would therefore bring another long-term option into a Rangers lineup that already has a lot of pieces locked into place.  Corey Seager and Marcus Semien are signed to mega-deals, while Lowe, Adolis Garcia, and Jonah Heim are arb-controlled through 2026.  Leody Taveras is arb-controlled through 2027, Jung and Smith through 2028, and star prospects Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford are both still rookies.  Justin Foscue is another notable prospect in his rookie season, and shortstop prospect Sebastian Walcott is at least a couple of years away from his MLB debut but still falls within this broader timeframe.

If the Rangers feel this creates any kind of a longjam or if they feel Jung is making good progress, they could pursue a rental player type of infielder instead of Paredes.  Such a move would also naturally come at a much lower prospect cost, as Tampa Bay is surely demanding a ton in any Paredes trade.  Given his years of control and the fact that the Rays are planning to contend again in 2025, Tampa isn’t facing any pressure to trade Paredes immediately, as even a healthy arb raise this winter should still fit him comfortably within the Rays’ limited payroll parameters.

Diamondbacks, Mariners Interested In Tanner Scott

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The Diamondbacks and Mariners are among the teams “thought to be vying for” Marlins closer Tanner Scott, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post.  At least a dozen clubs have reportedly shown some level of interest in Scott’s services, with the D’Backs and M’s now joining the Orioles, Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, and Royals as publicly known suitors.

Scott threw another scoreless inning in Miami’s 6-2 win over the Brewers last night, extending his scoreless innings streak to 17 2/3 frames.  For the season as a whole, Scott has a superb 1.18 ERA over 45 2/3 innings, with a 28.7% strikeout rate and similarly excellent numbers almost across the board — with the glaring exception of his 14.8% walk rate, which sits just a few decimal points away from being the very worst in baseball.

While these control problems make Scott less than an automatic lock in the ninth inning, this is his second consecutive season of tremendous results as the Marlins’ closer.  Since Miami is in seller mode and Scott is a free agent after the season, the left-hander is one of the most obvious players to be moved by the July 30 trade deadline, and several contenders are naturally reaching out to the Marlins about Scott’s services.

Arizona, in fact, already completed a deal with Miami about another southpaw reliever just two days ago, picking up A.J. Puk for two prospects.  Heyman’s report doesn’t specify the timing of the Diamondbacks’ inquiries about Scott, so it does seem possible that the D’Backs might’ve pivoted to Puk as a backup plan if the Marlins’ asking price for Scott was too high.  On the flip side, an argument can easily be made that Arizona’s shaky bullpen needs more reinforcements than just Puk, so it is easy to imagine that trade as perhaps laying some groundwork for future talks, once the Marlins explore what other clubs are willing to give up for Scott.

Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen told reporters (including Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports) that the Snakes could add more relievers, and the team was continuing to focus on acquiring pitching before turning to acquire any position players.  “We’re still gonna stay engaged in every market, you never know when an opportunity is gonna come up,” Hazen said.

The Mariners are another team who has already been very active in advance of July 30, as Seattle has acquired both Randy Arozarena and Yimi Garcia in respective trades with the Rays and Blue Jays.  Like with the D’Backs and the Puk trade, Seattle’s acquisition of Garcia probably doesn’t close the door on the possibility that the M’s might also aim to land Scott, though the Mariners have a far more glaring need for offense than pitching.  Depending on how much prospect depth or financial flexibility the M’s have, Seattle could opt to focus its upcoming moves towards adding more bats, rather than bring Scott into what is already a pretty solid bullpen.

Padres Notes: Taillon, Catching, DeVries

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Cubs right-hander Jameson Taillon has reportedly drawn interest from several teams as the trade deadline approaches, and it appears as though the Padres can be added to that list.  The Athletic’s Chandler Rome, Ken Rosenthal, and Patrick Mooney write that the Friars “have Taillon on their radar,” as starting pitching remains a need in San Diego.

Joe Musgrove might be on the verge of starting a minor league rehab assignment this coming week, but he’ll need multiple ramp-up starts since he hasn’t pitched since May 26.  Yu Darvish’s last MLB game was on May 29 and his last minor league rehab game was on June 19, and his return date remains uncertain given how the veteran is still on the Padres’ restricted list dealing with a personal family issue.

San Diego’s rotation has still posted solid numbers even without these two frontline pitchers, with the trio of Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Matt Waldron leading the way.  Bolstering that group with a veteran like Taillon, however, would allow the Padres to bump the struggling Adam Mazur out of the starting mix.  Should the Padres get Musgrove, Darvish, and a new addition joining up with Cease, King, and Waldron, they could perhaps adopt a six-man rotation to keep everyone fresh for the playoff drive, or this semi-surplus could resolve itself should other injuries emerge.

Taillon is far more than just a rental player, as he isn’t yet halfway through the four-year, $68MM contract he signed with Chicago during the 2022-23 offseason.  Taillon receives $18MM in each season of the deal, so he has roughly $43MM remaining in owed salary — a number that won’t appeal to a Padres club that is trying to reset its Competitive Balance Tax status.  After paying the tax in each of the previous three seasons, staying under the CBT line was a known goal for the Padres this season, and the team is projected (as per RosterResource) for a current tax number of roughly $224.8MM.

While this gives San Diego some wiggle room under the $237MM tax threshold, acquiring Taillon would alone absorb the rest of that CBT space, to say nothing or any other additions the Padres might might before the deadline.  The Padres could look to sweeten the prospect return in order to get the Cubs to cover a larger chunk of Taillon’s remaining salary, or perhaps some kind of larger multi-player deal could be arranged involving a notable contract heading from San Diego to Chicago to help offset the Taillon contract.  A.J. Preller and Jed Hoyer are no strangers to creative trades, and it is perhaps worth noting that the two clubs have been linked up on multiple trades over the last eight years — most notably the blockbuster that sent Darvish to San Diego during the 2020-21 offseason.

Speculatively speaking, it might be more likely that the Padres view Taillon as something of a backup plan, as one would imagine the Friars would first explore less-expensive options before considering adding another long-term pitching contract into the organization.  A possible trade might also be a moot point if Taillon happens to have San Diego as one of the 10 teams on his no-trade list, as his contract contains some partial protection against a deal.

Winners of their last six games, the streaking Padres have moved into a wild card position, and are only percentage points behind the Mets for the top NL wild card spot.  Since San Diego is only 6.5 games behind the Dodgers, the NL West title isn’t yet out of the question, but in any regard, the Padres are heating up at just the right time.  Preller figures to be aggressive in buying at the deadline to fully cement his team as a contender after missing the playoffs in 2023, even if upgrading while staying under the CBT line presents an interesting secondary challenge.

Beyond pitching, the Padres might also need help behind the plate, as the New York’s Post Jon Heyman writes that catching could be a target area.  Luis Campusano and Kyle Higashioka have handled the catching duties this season, with Campusano hitting .237/.280/.375 with six home runs over 239 plate appearances and Higashioka showing unexpected pop in hitting .226/.269/.540 with 12 homers in 145 PA.

That translates to a 127 wRC+ for Higashioka and an 89 wRC+ for Campusano, who has also posted subpar defensive metrics.  Former top prospect Campusano was seemingly starting to break out in 2023, but this season’s tough results could at least result in the loss of more playing time, if the Padres opt for the hotter hand in Higashioka.  Adding a new catcher would shake things up entirely, and Campusano could potentially see himself sent to Triple-A in that scenario since he still has a minor league option remaining.

Since Ethan Salas is one of baseball’s top prospects, the Padres already have a “catcher of the future” in the wings for a couple of seasons down the road, giving them some leverage to eventually move on from Campusano if he can’t get back on track.  Of course, there is danger in shuffling the catching position at midseason, and some teams shy away from deadline catching trades since it can be difficult on a catcher to join a new team and learn a new pitching staff’s tendencies on the fly.

Speaking of prospects, it remains to be seen how willing the Padres are to trade significantly from a minor league pipeline that has already been heavily mined for trades in recent years.  The Athletic’s Dennis Lin opines that shortstop prospect Leodalis De Vries might not be entirely untouchable in trade talks but is at least close to such status, as “the Padres will not consider moving him for anything less than controllable, star-level talent.”

The 17-year-old De Vries was an international signing just this past January, inked to a hefty $4.2MM bonus.  De Vries has already started to deliver on his potential by hitting .242/.362/.450 with nine homers and 11 steals (in 12 attempts) over his first 276 professional plate appearances, all at the A-level.  Xander Bogaerts told Lin that he was very impressed by De Vries’ talent and maturity when the two were briefly teammates during Bogaerts’ minor league rehab assignment this season, further enhancing De Vries’ status as a possible future cornerstone in the Padres’ lineup.  It is fair to assume plenty of other teams have taken notice and asked about De Vries in trade talks, giving Preller another big chip to possibly consider dangling for the right return by July 30.

Orioles Acquire Zach Eflin From Rays

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The Orioles have acquired right-hander Zach Eflin and cash considerations from the Rays in exchange for three prospects, per announcements from both clubs. Going to the Rays are outfielder Matthew Etzel, right-hander Jackson Baumeister and utility player Mac Horvath. Right-hander Vinny Nittoli has been designated for assignment by the O’s to get Eflin onto their roster.

Eflin, 30, has been a solid big league starter for many years, including his time with the Phillies and with the Rays as well. Since the start of 2018, he has allowed 4.01 earned runs per nine frames in over 800 innings. His 22.2% strikeout rate and 44.8% ground ball rate in that time were both close to league averages and he also limited walks to a tiny rate of 4.9%. Here in 2024, he has a 4.09 ERA in 19 starts. His strikeout rate is down to 18.9% but he’s also lowered his walk rate to 2.8%.

About a month ago, it was reported that the Rays could be looking to make some starting pitchers available, even if they weren’t sellers in the classically understood definition. They had a rotation consisting of Eflin, Aaron Civale, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell and Ryan Pepiot, with Tyler Alexander on hand as a depth option. On top of that group, they had Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen each getting back to health after significant elbow surgeries.

As the overall group became healthier, the Rays were seemingly open to subtracting, as doing so could allow them to address other parts of their roster, save some money, bolster their farm system or some combination of those goals, and still keep a fairly healthy rotation for the stretch run. The most logical candidates for such a trade were Civale, Littell and Eflin as the three of them were slated for free agency after 2025. Civale was flipped to the Brewers a few weeks ago and replaced in the rotation by Baz, with Eflin now moving on as well.

The Baltimore rotation has been in the opposite position, as it’s been getting less healthy as the season has gone along. Each of Kyle Bradish, John Means and Tyler Wells required UCL surgery earlier this year, putting them out of action for the remainder of the campaign.

They still had a strong front two in the rotation with Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez, but there’s been far less certainty behind them. Prospects Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott were each given brief auditions but weren’t impressive. Dean Kremer has a serviceable 4.43 ERA but might be lucky to have that, considering his .227 batting average on balls in play. Albert Suárez has a 3.48 ERA but is a 34-year-old journeyman who is back in the majors for the first time since 2017. Cole Irvin has been moved between the rotation and bullpen due to inconsistent results. Bolstering that group is plenty sensible and it now looks much stronger with Eflin in it. Burnes is set to reach free agency after this season, so acquiring Eflin is also a notable move for Baltimore’s 2025 rotation.

In addition to the situation in Tampa’s rotation, an Eflin deal has seemed likely due to his contract. He signed a three-year pact with the Rays going into 2023, with the $40MM guarantee being backloaded. He was paid $11MM last year and is making that same amount here in 2024, with an $18MM salary for 2025. The Rays often trade their players before they reach free agency and slinking away from that large commitment in the final season of the deal always seemed possible.

The Rays are covering Eflin’s $1MM trade bonus but the O’s are otherwise absorbing the deal, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post and Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun, both on X. That’s perhaps a notable development as the Orioles haven’t spent much money since their last competitive window closed. Per the data at Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the O’s had nine-figure Opening Day payrolls from 2014 to 2018 but haven’t been back to that level since then.

Some of the light spending has been due to the club rebuilding in recent years but their return to contention hasn’t led to a loosening of the pursestrings. The O’s haven’t given a multi-year deal to a free agent since Alex Cobb in early 2018 and the largest guarantee of any kind given out since then is the $13MM given to Craig Kimbrel on his one-year deal.

David Rubenstein purchased the franchise from the Angelos family earlier this year and it has been hoped that the ownership change would also lead to a change in spending habits. Perhaps the fact that the O’s are taking on an $18MM salary for next year is a sign that Baltimore will be operating differently from now on.

Turning to Tampa’s end of the deal, they are presumably saving at least a little bit of money while also adding three fresh prospects to their system. Baseball America just updated their list of the top 30 Orioles’ farmhands, with Horvath in the #13 slot and Baumeister at #18, through Etzel doesn’t crack the list.

Horwath, 23, was selected in the second round of last year’s draft. He’s hitting .232/.328/.417 in High-A this year for a 110 wRC+. He’s also stolen 26 bases while playing second base, third base and the outfield.

Baumeister, 22, was taken with a competitive balance pick last year, 63rd overall. He has made 18 starts at the High-A level this year with a 3.06 ERA and 29.5% strikeout rate, though a 14% walk rate. Etzel was a tenth-round pick last year and has slashed .289/.363/.445 for a 126 wRC+ between High-A and Double-A this year.

The O’s are 61-41 and tied for the best record in the American League but were heading into the stretch run with a flimsy rotation. They’ve strengthened it with a solid veteran, both for this year and next. They have subtracted from their farm system but it’s considered one of the best in the league and they held onto their top guys. Though the rotation is better than it was before this trade, it wouldn’t be a shock to see them add another arm. It’s also been reported that they could trade someone like Ryan Mountcastle or Cedric Mullins, though perhaps today’s trade of Austin Hays to the Phillies makes that less likely.

The Rays have added to their pool of young talent while shedding some payroll commitments, but still go into the final months of this season with a fairly solid rotation. Perhaps they are still hoping to compete but it also seems a more significant sell-off is in the cards. They traded outfielder Randy Arozarena to the Mariners yesterday and it’s possible that guys like Yandy Diaz, Isaac Paredes, Jason Adam, Pete Fairbanks and others could be available in the coming days.

Prior to this trade, Eflin was also connected to clubs like the Astros, Atlanta and the Cardinals. Those clubs will now have to look elsewhere for rotation upgrades in the coming days. Pitchers like Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Erick Fedde, Garrett Crochet, Tarik Skubal and others have been in rumors with varying degrees of availability.

Nittoli was just added to Baltimore’s roster less than two weeks ago and they will now have to either trade him or put him on waivers in the coming days. He has a 1.50 ERA in 12 big league innings this year between the O’s and the A’s.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported on X that the O’s would be getting Eflin. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the prospects going back to the Rays on X. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com relayed Nittoli’s DFA on X.

Mariners Acquire Yimi Garcia

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Less than 24 hours after beefing up their lineup with the acquisition of Randy Arozarena, the Mariners have bolstered their bullpen by acquiring right-hander Yimi Garcia from the Blue Jays. Outfielder Jonatan Clase and minor league catcher Jacob Sharp are going from Seattle to Toronto in return.

Garcia, 34 next month, is in his third season with the Jays. He originally signed a two-year, $11MM contract with Toronto, but he’s beefed up that contract through his performance. Garcia pitched enough games to vest a $6MM option for the current season and also picked up an additional $1MM of incentives in years one and two of the contract, ultimately turning it into a three-year, $18MM pact. He’s a rental for the Jays who’ll be owed $2.1MM from now until season’s end. Garcia is a free agent thereafter.

Regarded as one of the better relief arms on this year’s market, Garcia will bolster a bullpen that looked like one of the strongest in the game heading into the season but has been hit with some notable injuries. Star setup man Matt Brash required Tommy John surgery that knocked him out for the season, while offseason trade acquisition Gregory Santos only recently made his team debut after suffering a significant lat strain in spring training. The right-hander was removed from his most recent appearance with a knee issue. Perhaps that pushed the Mariners to make this move, but Santos has not yet been placed on the injured list, nor has the team announced a substantial injury for the right-hander.

Seattle has spent much of the season patching things together on the bridge to manager Scott Servais’ excellent closer, Andres Munoz. Now, if Santos’ knee injury proves minor they could go from a piecemeal approach to a pair of high-octane setup men in a matter of weeks.

Garcia has been a force this year, sporting a career-high 96.7 mph average fastball en route to a mammoth 36.5% strikeout rate that tops his prior career-high by nearly five percentage points. He’s coupled that with a strong 7% walk rate.

Over the past two seasons, Garcia has notably cut back on the usage of that fastball and significantly upped his curveball usage, helping to contribute to the rise in punchouts. He’s sitting on an excellent 2.70 ERA that metrics like FIP (2.64) and SIERA (2.30) suggest could undersell his performance to date. Garcia has gone 5-for-6 in save opportunities (bringing his career total to 26) and picked up 10 holds this year as well. He only just returned from a monthlong stay on the injured list due to a bout of elbow neuritis (nerve inflammation), but Garcia has tossed two innings, faced eight batters and punched out five of them while averaging 96.6 mph on his fastball; the elbow doesn’t seem to be bothering him.

In return for Garcia, the Jays will add a big league-ready outfielder with a full six seasons of club control: Clase. The 22-year-old speedster made his big league debut with the M’s earlier this season and .195/.233/.220 slash in a tiny sample of 44 plate appearances. That’s a small enough number of plate appearances at a young enough age that it’s not worth reading into; Clase has had a nice season in Triple-A Tacoma this year, slashing .274/.373/.483 with 10 homers, 11 doubles, four triples and 26 steals in 35 attempts. His 25.7% strikeout rate there is higher than one would prefer for a player who’s considered to have below-average power, but Clase has also walked in nearly 15% of his plate appearances.

This year’s 26 steals are a nice mark but they don’t tell the full tale of Clase’s speed. Baseball America pegs him as a 70-grade runner (on the 20-80 scale), while FanGraphs lists him as a true 80-grade burner. His 29.6 ft/sec average sprint speed this season (as measured by Statcast) ranks in the 97th percentile of MLB players. Clase swiped a whopping 79 bases (94 attempts) in just 129 games between High-A and Double-A last year — all while hitting .242/.353/.449.

For a Jays club that’ll see Kevin Kiermaier retire at season’s end, he stands as a potential everyday player as soon as 2025 … if he can make enough quality contact to keep himself in the lineup. The Blue Jays have one of the game’s best outfield defenders in Daulton Varsho, who could slide to center in place of Kiermaier next year, but Clase will have a chance to win an everyday role regardless of whether it’s in left or center. Despite all his speed, Clase isn’t regarded as the same level of defender as Varsho, though he’s young enough that he could of course improve his reads, jumps and routes in the years ahead.

Sharp, 22, was Seattle’s 17th-round pick just last summer. The former UNLV backstop is a right-handed hitter who’s spent the season thus far in Class-A, hitting .255/.339/.435 (105 wRC+). He’s a bit old for that level, but it’s still hard to overlook his eye-catching bat-to-ball skills. Sharp has struck out in only 9.9% of his plate appearances — a mark that’s barely higher than his 9.4% walk rate. He’s thrown out 21% of runners who’ve attempted to steal against him since being drafted. He’s a longer-term play than Clase, but a catcher with that type of feel for contact makes for an interesting add to the lower levels of the farm.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that the Mariners were acquiring Garcia and sending Clase to Toronto. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith first reported Sharp’s inclusion in the trade.

Dodgers Trade James Paxton To Red Sox

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The Red Sox have added some depth to their rotation, acquiring lefty James Paxton from the Dodgers in exchange for minor league infielder Moises Bolivar, the teams announced Friday. Boston transferred right-hander Bryan Mata to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster. WEEI’s Rob Bradford reported yesterday that the Red Sox, who need some rotation stability and who employed Paxton from 2022-23, were expected to pursue him.

Paxton was something of a surprise DFA by the Dodgers. He’s made all 18 starts asked of him this season and posted a respectable, if unspectacular 4.43 earned run average. Those numbers closely mirror the 4.50 ERA he logged in a similar sample of 96 frames with Boston last season, but the rest of the 35-year-old’s profile doesn’t look nearly as strong.

After averaging 95.2 mph on his fastball with the Sox last season, Paxton is down to 93.2 mph in 2024. He’s seen his strikeout rate plummet from 24.6% to 16.4%, while his walk rate has soared from 8% to 12.3%. Paxton’s average exit velocity has also jumped by a mile and a half per hour, from 89.3 mph with the Sox to 90.8 mph with Los Angeles. His overall hard-hit rate has climbed in similar fashion, from 39.6% to 43.3%. He’s gotten by with a career-low .267 average on balls in play and homer-to-flyball rate that’s also notably lower than his career marks.

Whether Paxton can sustain his passable results with that lackluster array of under-the-hood numbers is far from clear, but the Sox also don’t necessarily need him to perform like an front-of-the-rotation arm. Boston’s depth behind Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello and Cooper Criswell is thin, and several of those arms (Houck, Crawford, Criswell) are either approaching or have already established new career-high workloads. Adding a stable back-end arm surely holds plenty of appeal for a team in that situation —  particularly given Paxton’s affordable contract.

Paxton inked a one-year deal with $7MM guaranteed and another $6MM in attainable bonuses. However, $3MM of that guarantee came in the form of an up-front signing bonus that’s already been paid out. He’s also already unlocked all $6MM of incentives ($2MM for making the Opening Day roster and another $4MM based on his number of games started). As such, the Red Sox will only owe him the prorated portion of that $4MM base between now and season’s end (approximately $1.42MM).

That modest sum bumps Boston’s payroll to an approximate $180MM. Their luxury-tax ledger is a good bit higher, checking in at an estimated $218.1MM prior to this swap (via RosterResource). Paxton will push the Sox just shy of $220MM, leaving chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and his staff about $17MM of breathing room between their current number and the first luxury tax threshold. Breslow & Co. should have ample room to make further additions, even if ownership is reluctant to cross that first tax threshold. Boston, in addition to seeking rotation depth, has been in the market for bullpen upgrades and a right-handed bat.

For the Dodgers, the trade of Paxton, who ranks third on their team in innings pitched, clearly isn’t a sign of selling. Los Angeles is in first place in the NL West and stands as a veritable lock to make the postseason. But the Dodgers also welcomed Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw back from the injured list this week.

That pair of high-quality veterans joins a youthful trio of Gavin Stone, Justin Wrobleski and River Ryan in the rotation at the moment, but the Dodgers are also expecting Yoshinobu Yamamoto to return in August and Walker Buehler to return sometime before season’s end. Between that depth and their outspoken pursuit of an “impact” starting pitcher on the trade market (in the words of general manager Brandon Gomes), Paxton was pushed out of the mix.

In exchange for the final two-plus months of Paxton’s services, the Dodgers will receive the 17-year-old Bolivar. He signed with the Red Sox as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela just this past January, receiving a bonus of $25K. He’s not considered a high-end prospect in Boston’s system, but that sort of lottery-ticket return is to be expected for a veteran pitcher who was designated for assignment.

Bolivar, already six feet tall and listed at 175 pounds, has gotten out to a strong start in his professional debut. He’s appeared in 31 games with the Red Sox’ Rookie-level Dominican Summer League affiliate and slashed .270/.364/.423 with three homers and nearly as many walks (17) as strikeouts (21). He’s a right-handed hitter who’s played primarily third base but has also logged 26 innings across the diamond at first base.

FanSided’s Robert Murray first reported that the two sides were engaged in trade talks. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported a deal had been finalized. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe added details on the Dodgers’ return.

Notable Draft Signings: 7/26/24

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The Rays signed their first-rounder to a significant bonus on Friday evening. We’ll round up a few other $2MM+ signings from the day. Pre-draft rankings and scouting reports are provided by Keith Law of the Athletic, Baseball America, FanGraphs and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.

  • The Astros have a $3.13MM deal with first-round pick Walker Janek, reports Chandler Rome of the Athletic (X link). That’s slot value for the 28th pick. A Sam Houston State product, Janek was the first catcher selected. Evaluators praise his arm strength and athleticism behind the dish. There’s not much question that he’ll be able to stick at the position. Janek feasted on mid-major pitching with a .364/.476/.709 slash as a junior, but his defense should drive the profile.
  • Reds second-round pick Tyson Lewis received a well overslot $3.0475MM bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (on X). That was necessary to keep the Nebraska high schooler from attending the University of Arkansas. Evaluators credit the 6’2″ shortstop with plus bat speed and athleticism. Lewis is a longer-term development play who didn’t face great competition in high school. There’s a fair amount of volatility with his hit tool but an intriguing toolset.
  • The Brewers also went above slot on their second-rounder. Milwaukee has a $2.5MM agreement with 57th pick Bryce Meccage, according to Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (X link). A right-handed prep pitcher from New Jersey, he’s a Virginia commit. Meccage is a 6’4″ hurler who works in the low-mid 90s and shows a pair of promising breaking pitches. Law’s report notes that the young pitcher has subpar command at the moment but enough athleticism to develop in that regard. Meccage is regarded as a potential back-end starter.

Royals Have Shown Interest In Tanner Scott

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Tanner Scott is almost certain to be traded within the next four days. He and Carlos Estévez are the top two rental relievers on the market. The Marlins are willing to listen on anyone on the roster and already traded one key bullpen piece last night.

Scott has been a known target for the likes of the Yankees, Dodgers, Orioles and Phillies dating back to the middle of June. Interest in the hard-throwing southpaw surely extends beyond that group of four. Indeed, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote on Thursday night that the Royals are also looking into Scott.

Kansas City general manager J.J. Picollo has spoken a few times about wanting to add power to the back of the bullpen. The Royals put that into action a couple weeks ago, landing Hunter Harvey from the Nationals just before the draft. They’re evidently still engaged in the relief market. Harvey had pitched in a setup capacity in Washington and looks to be sticking in that role with his new team.

James McArthur has held the ninth inning. It hasn’t always been smooth, as he has blown five of 22 save chances (including his most recent opportunity in Wednesday’s loss to the Diamondbacks). The 27-year-old righty has allowed nearly five earned runs per nine across 40 1/3 innings. He’s getting ground-balls at an excellent 53.8% clip and has plus control, but his 18.5% strikeout rate is well below average. McArthur doesn’t get nearly as many strikeouts as the typical closer, so the Royals could look to push him into the middle innings.

Scott is much more of a traditional closer. He pairs a 97 MPH heater with an upper-80s slider that misses plenty of bats. Scott has fanned more than 29% of opponents over 45 2/3 frames this season. He punched out more than a third of batters faced last year. He’s prone to bouts of wildness but has such high-octane stuff that he has been a dominant presence at the back of the Miami bullpen. After turning in a 2.31 ERA across 78 innings a year ago, he’s allowing 1.18 earned runs per nine this season.

The 30-year-old southpaw is playing on a $5.7MM salary in his final year of arbitration. There’s roughly $2MM in commitments for the stretch run. Scott could be looking at a three- or four-year deal next winter, so there’s very little chance he’ll stay in Miami past the deadline.

Rays Agree To Terms With First-Round Pick Theo Gillen

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The Rays agreed with first-round pick Theo Gillen on a $4.3729MM bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (X link). That’s full slot value associated with the 18th overall selection.

A 6’3″ infielder from a Texas high school, Gillen ranked as a middle of the first round talent by most pre-draft evaluations. FanGraphs slotted him as a top 10 player in the class and graded him as the top prep player on the board. FanGraphs lauds Gillen’s hit/power combination and gives him a chance to stick at second base or in center field. While evaluators broadly praise the left-handed hitter’s overall ability, some teams were alarmed by a right shoulder injury that necessitated labrum surgery in 2022.

Gillen ranked 19th on Kiley McDaniel’s board at ESPN, 23rd at Baseball America and 21st on Keith Law’s list at The Athletic. He’d been committed to Texas but instead joins a Rays’ system that should also continue to add talent via trade over the next few days.

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