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Submit Your Questions For This Week’s MLB Trade Rumors Podcast!

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On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we’ll frequently answer questions from our readers and listeners.  With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.

Whether it’s a question about a recent transaction, a future transaction or anything else related to the offseason, we’d love to hear from you!  You can send your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it.  iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Latest On Framber Valdez

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Dec. 18: At least six clubs have reached out to the Astros to check in on Valdez’s potential availability, writes Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Houston isn’t actively seeking to trade Valdez but has at least listened to offers on him.

Dec. 15: Front office personnel from opposing teams are “monitoring” the possibility of the Astros trading star left-hander Framber Valdez, writes Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. The 30-year-old is coming off his second straight top 10 Cy Young finish.

It’s unsurprising to hear opposing clubs are keeping their eye on Valdez. He’d be an upgrade for any rotation in MLB. He has reached 31 starts in each of the past two seasons, leading the American League with 201 1/3 innings back in 2022. Valdez has paired that volume with excellent results, working to a 3.40 ERA over parts of six seasons in the big leagues. He has allowed 3.13 earned runs per nine over the past three years, striking out 23.5% of batters faced and keeping the ball on the ground at a massive 63% clip.

Given that level of success, plenty of teams would be interested if the Astros put Valdez on the trade market. There’s no indication the Houston front office is seriously entertaining that possibility at this point. In response to trade chatter about third baseman Alex Bregman, Houston GM Dana Brown flatly shot down the idea at the Winter Meetings, saying the team is “trying to win here.”

The club could take a similar stance on Valdez. He’s arguably the best pitcher on a team with championship aspirations. Houston’s rotation is solid but has taken some injury hits in recent months. Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are each expected to miss roughly half the season as they rehab arm surgeries. The Astros reacquired Justin Verlander to join Valdez and Cristian Javier in the rotation’s top three. José Urquidy joins second-year pitchers Hunter Brown and J.P. France as possibilities at the back end.

Any argument in favor of a Valdez trade is tied to Houston’s payroll outlook. Roster Resource projects the club for a payroll around $222MM, well above last year’s approximate $180MM Opening Day figure. They’re projected right at the $237MM luxury tax threshold, which they haven’t surpassed since 2020. Dana Brown has been rather forthright about the limited money at the front office’s disposal.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Valdez for a $12.1MM salary in his third of four arbitration seasons. With a typically strong season, he’d likely be in line for something in the $18MM range in 2025. Valdez is on track to hit free agency during the 2025-26 offseason at age 32. Brown has previously expressed a desire to extend key players like Valdez, Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Jose Altuve. Thus far, the second-year GM has only worked out a long-term deal with Javier, although there’s a general expectation they’ll be able to get something done with Altuve at some point.

While a trade of a veteran on a notable salary would provide some payroll flexibility, it’s worth noting that Houston doesn’t have a ton of needs on the roster. The Astros replaced Martín Maldonado with Víctor Caratini behind the dish. They appear content with their in-house outfielders despite losing Michael Brantley. While they could stand to add middle innings depth after seeing Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek and Phil Maton hit free agency, trading Valdez to create spending room for a low-leverage relievers wouldn’t make much sense in the short term. A deal could recoup controllable pitching and add some talent to a barren farm system, but it’d be at the expense of a win-now roster.

One less impactful possibility would be to entertain offers on Urquidy. He’s only projected for a $3.5MM salary, so the cost savings would be fairly modest. Yet the front office could look to move him on the heels of an injury-plagued season in which he turned in a 5.29 ERA across 16 appearances. Rosenthal notes that the Astros have looked to trade Urquidy on prior occasions. The return wouldn’t be anywhere near what they’d receive were they to move Valdez, of course, but a deal that sends Urquidy to a rotation-needy team for bullpen help isn’t far-fetched.

The Opener: Orioles, Outfield Market, Padres

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As MLB’s offseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Could the Orioles reach a lease agreement today?

Earlier this year, the Orioles and Maryland governor Wes Moore initially reported that they had reached an agreement that would keep the Orioles in Baltimore for at least 30 years. That deal was later revealed to be a non-binding “memorandum of understanding,” and no deal has come together in the months since. That could change today according to an announcement late last week from Moore’s office that a long-term lease agreement between the Orioles and the Maryland Stadium Authority will be voted on by Maryland state officials today. The agreement is expected to go before both the stadium authority and the state’s Board of Public Works this afternoon. Time is running out on an agreement, as the club’s lease at Camden Yards expires at the end of the calendar year.

2. Is the outfield market heating up?

The positional market has lagged behind the pitching market for the most part this offseason, and while infielder Jeimer Candelario and DH Shohei Ohtani have both signed in recent weeks, the outfield market was falling even further behind in free agency with a focus on trades of players like Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo, Tyler O’Neill, and Jarred Kelenic. Fortunately, the outfield market has begun to heat up over the past week as KBO star Jung Hoo Lee landed in San Francisco on a six-year deal.

Since then, the rest of the outfield market has begun to catch up as Hunter Renfroe reached an agreement on a two-year pact with the Royals. Just yesterday, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and the Diamondbacks came together on a multi-year contract that will keep the reigning NL championship club’s left fielder in town for the next two to four seasons. It’s possible that the recent movement on the outfield market could spur movement involving a corner outfield class led by Teoscar Hernandez that also features noteworthy names such as Tommy Pham, Joc Pederson, and Jorge Soler.

3. What’s next for the Padres?

The Padres kicked off their offseason earlier this month by trading away Soto and center fielder Trent Grisham to the Yankees in exchange for a package of five players headlined by right-hander Michael King and top pitching prospect Drew Thorpe. While the club was initially believed to be motivated to move Soto by a desire to open up budget space to repair a pitching staff that had lost four starting pitchers (including reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell) and star closer Josh Hader to free agency, reporting from this past weekend indicates that San Diego may have less room in the budget to work with than initially believed even after dealing away Soto.

The Padres are reportedly considering attempting to duck under the luxury tax threshold this offseason, a strategy that could leave them with just $30MM to spend as they look to add multiple arms to both the rotation and bullpen while also filling out their recently-vacated outfield alongside franchise cornerstone Fernando Tatis Jr. Given the club’s complicated financial situation and the number of holes left on the roster, the club’s path back into contention seems likely to remain unclear until president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his front office make their next move.

KBO’s KIA Tigers Re-Sign Socrates Brito

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The KIA Tigers of the Korea Baseball Organization announced that outfielder Socrates Brito is returning for a third season with the team (hat tip to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net).  Brito will receive $800K in guaranteed money in the form of a $500K salary and a $300K signing bonus, plus he can earn an additional $400K in contract incentives.

It’s easy to see why the Tigers were interested in a reunion, as Brito has hit .298/.349/.478 with 37 homers over his two seasons (1162 plate appearances) in South Korea.  The 31-year-old Brito has primarily been the club’s everyday center fielder, while also seeing some action in both corner outfield positions.

Formerly a prospect in the Diamondbacks’ farm system, Brito showed some signs of the dreaded “Quad-A” label, as his impressive .287/.339/.467 slash line over 1960 Triple-A plate appearances didn’t translate to the big leagues, albeit in a pretty limited sample size of MLB playing time — Brito hit only .179/.216/.309 over 218 PA with the D’Backs and Blue Jays from 2015-19.  Brito signed minor league deals with the Pirates and Yankees in 2020 and 2021 without any more time in the majors, and Brito also had to endure a personal tragedy in 2020 when his brother passed away from COVID-19.

There hasn’t been any public indication that Brito has received any looks from Major League teams during his tenure in the KBO League, or even that Brito has necessarily been on the lookout for a return to North American baseball.  There’s certainly still time for Brito to explore such possibilities in the future, but for now, he has carved a nice niche for himself with the Tigers.

Blue Jays Interested In Jonathan India

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Jonathan India’s name has been swirling in trade rumors for months, and the Blue Jays are the latest team to show some interest in the Reds second baseman, according to Bob Elliott of the Canadian Baseball Network (X link).  Toronto has been mentioned as a speculative fit for India given the Jays’ need for second base help, though there isn’t any indication that a trade might be close, or whether this is anything beyond due diligence on the Blue Jays’ part.

Since Matt Chapman and Whit Merrifield are both in the free agent market, the Jays have been left pretty thin at both second and third base.  In-house candidates Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Davis Schneider, and Ernie Clement are all on the big league roster, while any of Addison Barger, Orelvis Martinez, or Leo Jimenez could make their Major League debuts in 2024 and work their way into the infield picture.

While Toronto has plenty of options in terms of volume, however, there isn’t much in the way of proven Major League capability.  Biggio and Espinal have been inconsistent during their big league tenures, Schneider and Clement both hit very well in small sample sizes in 2023, and the rest have no big league track records at all (though Martinez and Barger are highly-regarded prospects).

India could provide an answer at second base, though the former NL Rookie of the Year isn’t exactly a sure thing coming off two somewhat underwhelming seasons.  Since winning the ROY in 2021, India has hit .246/.333/.394 with 27 homers over 960 plate appearances for Cincinnati, with hamstring injuries and plantar fasciitis impacting his ability to stay on the field.  Public defensive metrics have also been very unimpressed with India’s glovework, so his contributions as a second baseman specifically could be limited.

Even with these factors in mind, India just turned 27 two days ago and is only entering the first of three arbitration-eligible years, so Cincinnati normally wouldn’t be looking to trade such a controllable player.  And, technically, the Reds aren’t open to a deal, as president of baseball operations Nick Krall has stated that the team isn’t “motivated” to move India elsewhere.  The question of big league experience is also a factor in Cincinnati, as while the Reds are overloaded with young infielders ready for more MLB time, Krall also values the stability and depth India brings in the event of injury problems, or if some of the youngsters need more minor league seasoning.

That said, the Reds’ signing of Jeimer Candelario only added to the infield surplus.  If Candelario is now taking regular time at third base, that leaves India, Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, and Noelvi Marte all competing for middle infield spots.  Even if Candelario slides over to first base, Christian Encarnacion-Strand also needs a place to play, and the DH position provides some a few extra at-bats for the Reds to juggle all these options.

The fit in Toronto also wouldn’t be perfect.  As noted, India would be a defensive downgrade at second base, and the keystone is also the better defensive spot for most of the Blue Jays’ in-house options.  In his look at India’s trade market last month, MLBTR’s Nick Deeds observed that while the Jays are planning to contend in 2024, they also might not want to block Schneider or Clement entirely from at least semi-regular playing time.  Speculatively, an India trade package could involve the Jays sending one of their most experienced infielders (i.e. Biggio or Espinal) back to Cincinnati so the Reds could have some of the depth they crave, though pitching is the Reds’ greatest need.

It has been a quiet winter in terms of actual transactions if not headlines in Toronto, as the Blue Jays’ business has in some ways been impeded by their pursuit of Shohei Ohtani.  Obviously GM Ross Atkins and his front office weren’t singularly focused on Ohtani over the offseason’s first six weeks, yet after coming up short to the Dodgers in the Ohtani race, the Jays still have a pretty full to-do list that includes the two infield positions, left field, DH, and perhaps the rotation and bullpen.

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/17/23

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Some minor league moves from around the baseball world…

  • The Royals released Cody Poteet, according to the right-hander’s MLB.com profile page.  Poteet underwent a Tommy John surgery in August 2022 and as a result missed almost all of the 2023 season, save for two innings of work in one game with Triple-A Omaha in late September.  Kansas City signed Poteet to a minors deal last winter in anticipation that he’d spend most of the season in recovery, and the 29-year-old will now enter free agency again with at least a more optimistic health situation.  Poteet’s MLB resume consists of a 4.45 ERA over 58 2/3 innings with the Marlins in 2021-22, as well as a 3.80 ERA in 521 2/3 career minor league frames.
  • The Dodgers signed outfielder Austin Beck to a minor league contract, as Beck revealed via his X account.  Beck selected sixth overall by the Athletics in the 2017 draft, though his eight games with Oakland’s Triple-A affiliate in 2021 represents his highest step on the minor league ladder.  Multiple injuries have set back Beck’s progress, most notably a torn ACL that cost him the entire 2023 season.  The Dodgers will take a flier on Beck to see if there’s any late-bloomer potential now that he’s healthy, and Beck is still only 25 years old.

Rays Interested In Naoyuki Uwasawa

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With the Tyler Glasnow trade now finalized and Ryan Pepiot a part of the Rays’ pitching mix, the team is continuing to look for pitching help.  Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that “the Rays have some interest in” Naoyuki Uwasawa, whose 45-day posting window is up on January 11.

Tampa becomes the seventh MLB team known to have some level of interest in the right-hander, as a Sports Hochi report (Japanese language link) in September revealed that the Angels, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Rangers, Reds, and Royals all had scouts watching one of Uwasawa’s starts for the Nippon Ham-Fighters.  It is probably safe to assume even more teams have some level of interest in Uwasawa due to both his track record in Nippon Professional Baseball, and the fact that he might have a relatively low price tag in comparison to many other free agent pitchers on the market.

Uwasawa (who turns 30 in February) had a 3.19 ERA over 1118 1/3 career innings in NPB, all with the Fighters from 2014-2023.  Though it took a few years for the righty to fully establish himself on the Fighters’ roster, Uwasawa’s results have always been pretty solid, and his 2.96 ERA over 170 innings in 2023 represented a career best.  Uwasawa is a three-time NPB All-Star, including a nod this past season.

The two big knocks against Uwasawa from a Major League scouting perspective are his lack of strikeouts (19.67% strikeout rate) and a lack of velocity.  Uwasawa’s average fastball clocked in at around 90.8mph in 2023, according to MLBTR’s Dai Takegami Podziewski in the September edition of the NPB Players To Watch feature.  While Uwasawa has solid control and obviously his contact-heavy approach has led to great success in Japan, whether or not his stuff will be able to fool MLB hitters over the long term is surely a question front offices are asking themselves as they consider offers.

The Rays have a long history of helping pitchers either achieve new levels of success or turn their careers around entirely, so one would imagine they could be a particularly solid landing spot for a pitcher making the transition from NPB to MLB.  Tampa Bay doesn’t have a lengthy history with Japanese pitchers or the posting system in general, yet broadly, any intriguing player who represents something of a bargain signing would appeal to a Rays team that is always looking to keep a limited payroll.

Signing Uwasawa would cost the Rays or any MLB team an additional posting fee to the Fighters, on top of whatever Uwasawa himself would earn in a contract.  The Fighters’ release fee would be worth 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the deal’s next $25MM, and then 15% of any money beyond $50MM.  If Uwasawa doesn’t agree to a Major League contract by the end of his 45-day posting window, he would return to the Fighters for the 2024 NPB season.

Shin-Soo Choo To Retire After 2024 KBO Season

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Longtime big league veteran Shin-Soo Choo announced earlier this week (hat tip to Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News) that 2024 will be his final season in pro baseball.  The 41-year-old Choo has played with the Korea Baseball Organization’s SSG Landers for the last three seasons, and he’ll spent one more year with the Landers before hanging up his cleats.  Choo is essentially playing for free in 2024, as he re-signed with the Landers for a KBO-minimum salary and will donate the sum to charity.

“I decided it was time for me to put a period on my baseball journey that started in 2001,” Choo said in a team statement to the Korea Times and other outlets.  “Since the 2024 season will be my last one, I want to show my gratitude to baseball fans, both at home and on the road, and give them long-lasting memories throughout the year.”

Choo hit .275/.377/.447 over 7157 plate appearances and 1652 games in the majors from 2005-20.  A “professional hitter” type, Choo delivered a very solid 123 wRC+ over his 16 MLB seasons, always showing a knack for getting on base even in his less-successful seasons at the plate.  Choo was also something of an underrated threat power-wise (218 home runs) and on the basepaths (157 steals in 212 chances), as he authored three 20-20 seasons during his big league career.

An international signing for the Mariners in 2000, Choo spent parts of his first two Major League campaigns in Seattle before being traded to Cleveland in July 2006.  It was a shrewd acquisition for the Indians, as Choo went on to become a lineup fixture over seven seasons with the Tribe.  However, as the team fell out of contention and Choo’s arbitration numbers began to increase, Cleveland dealt Choo to the Reds as part of a three-team, nine-player trade also involving the Diamondbacks in December 2012.

Choo’s lone season in Cincinnati was the best of his career, as he hit .285/.423/.462 with 21 homers and 20 stolen bases over 712 PA for a Reds team that reached the postseason.  This great platform year led to a big free agent payday for Choo in the form of a seven-year, $130MM deal with Texas.  Such a contract inevitably comes with high expectations, and unfortunately for both Choo and the Rangers, the deal didn’t really work out.

Between injuries and a declining glove, Choo’s value became entirely tied to his bat, and thus producing only good (111 wRC+) numbers in Texas wasn’t enough.  Choo ended up generating only 7.5 fWAR over the length of that seven-year deal, and it didn’t help that the franchise as a whole went into a rebuild period during Choo’s tenure.  After a pair of tough playoff losses to the Blue Jays in 2015-16, the Rangers didn’t post another winning record for the remaining four seasons of Choo’s deal.

After garnering only limited interest from big league teams during the 2020-21 offseason, Choo decided to head back to his native country and sign with the Landers (then known as the SK Wyverns).  Since Choo had signed with the Mariners as an amateur, he had never played in the KBO League prior to 2021, and his homecoming has been a successful one.  Choo has hit .259/.391/.427 over his three seasons with the Landers, and the team won the Korean Series in 2022.

Chicago Notes: Lee, Candelario, Pepiot

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After losing Jeimer Candelario, Cody Bellinger, and Marcus Stroman to free agency last month, the Cubs figure to look for additional help at the corner infield spots and in the rotation while also continuing a search for a left-handed bat that saw them connected to both Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani before the superstars landed with the Yankees and Dodgers, respectively. According to Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, that search for a left-handed bat took them to a somewhat unusual place, as Mooney indicates that Chicago pursued star KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee prior to him landing in San Francisco on a six-year, $113MM deal last week.

It’s something of a peculiar fit, as the Cubs have Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki locked into the corner outfield spots with top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong and his 80-grade glove in center field expected to break into the majors as a regular sometime next season. While that hasn’t stopped president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his front office from pursuing Soto and a reunion with Bellinger, it’s worth noting that Bellinger has plenty of experience at first base and that Soto is a fringe defender in the outfield who may be best suited for a DH role. Lee, by contrast, has spent his entire professional career in the outfield and is viewed as a plus defender on the grass with a chance to stick in center.

Despite the uncertain fit, Mooney suggests that the 25-year-old’s youth, left-handed bat, and ability to play center were all attractive factors in the eyes of the Cubs. Speculatively speaking, the club may have seen Lee as a piece who could slot into center field on Opening Day to allow Crow-Armstrong more time to develop in the minors. Upon Crow-Armstrong’s promotion, the club could have utilized the DH slot, where they have no regular starting option, to rest Suzuki, Happ, and Lee by divvying up time in the outfield corners between the three of them while also allowing them to all play on an everyday basis.

More rumblings out of Chicago…

  • Sticking with the Cubs, Mooney suggests that the club “didn’t express interest” in retaining Candelario after he hit the open market last month. Candelario came up as a member of the Cubs but was shipped to the Tigers at the 2017 trade deadline alongside infielder Isaac Paredes in exchange for catcher Alex Avila and left-hander Justin Wilson. Candelario made his way back to Chicago this past summer when the Cubs landed him in exchange for infield prospect Kevin Made and lefty relief prospect D.J. Herz. Candelario’s second stint with the Cubs was shortened by a two-week stint on the injured list in September due to a back issue. Though Candelario was a strong fit for the Cubs’ offseason needs as a switch-hitting infielder who can contribute at both infield corners as well as DH, it’s possible the club was turned off from pursuing him by the relatively modest .234/.318/.445 slash line he put up in 157 trips to the plate with Chicago this season. Candelario wound up signing with the Reds on a three-year, $45MM deal earlier this month.
  • Looking toward the south side, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the White Sox were interested in right-hander Ryan Pepiot as part of a possible return package while discussing a Dylan Cease trade with the Dodgers earlier this winter. Pepiot ultimately was shipped to the Rays alongside outfielder Jonny DeLuca in exchange for oft-injured ace Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot. It’s unclear if the Dodgers and White Sox are still engaged in discussions regarding Cease following the Glasnow deal, though the Dodgers are certainly in need of multiple starting pitchers this offseason and would surely benefit from the addition of Cease, who sports a 3.54 ERA and 3.40 FIP over the past three seasons, to their rotation mix.

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