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Royals Finalizing Two-Year Deal With Hunter Renfroe

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The Royals are reportedly finalizing a deal with outfielder Hunter Renfroe, which is pending a physical. The McKinnis Sports client will get $13MM over two years, with $500K in incentives also available each year. He will make $5.5MM in 2024 and $7.5MM in 2025, but can opt out after the first season.

It’s been a busy week for the Royals, who have signed pitchers Seth Lugo and Will Smith, while also reportedly agreeing to a deal with Chris Stratton. They also had known interest in buttressing their outfield, having been connected to Tyler O’Neill in recent rumors. But the Cardinals flipped O’Neill to the Red Sox and it seems the Royals have pivoted to the free agent market.

Renfroe, 32 in January, has been incredibly nomadic in recent seasons, which is likely a reflection of his enticing power but limited overall profile. He began his career with the Padres but has subsequently bounced to the Rays, Red Sox, Brewers, Angels and Reds, meaning he’s worn six jerseys in the past five years, with this deal set to make it seven in six.

Since becoming a full-time player in 2017, he has hit at least 20 home runs in each full season, as well as eight in the shortened 2020 campaign. He’s also reached the 30-homer plateau twice. But he also doesn’t have huge batting average or on-base percentages. His career batting line of .239/.300/.478 amounts to a wRC+ of 106, indicating he’s been a bit above league average on the whole.

But that’s come in fairly inconsistent fashion on a year-to-year basis. In 2019, he hit 33 home runs, but that was the “juiced ball” season. Since he struck out in 31.2% of his plate appearances and had a .289 OBP, he was actually a smidge below league average, 99 wRC+. He was flipped to Tampa and then had significant struggles in 2020, despite the eight homers. The Rays traded him to the Red Sox, which led to a bounceback season and Boston flipping him to the Brewers for prospects, taking on Jackie Bradley Jr. in the process. Renfroe hit 60 homers over those seasons with Boston and Milwaukee, slashing .257/.315/.496 for a wRC+ of 118.

Yet another trade to the Halos preceded yet another downturn. He hit 19 homers but his .242/.304/.434 line had his wRC+ at 99 again. As the club fell out of contention, they put multiple players on waivers to try to dip below the luxury tax. Renfroe was one one them and he was claimed by the Reds. In 14 games with that club, he hit a dismal .128/.227/.205 and was released.

Renfroe isn’t a burner on the basepaths, having stolen just 14 bases in his career and none in 2023. Defensively, he’s generally been subpar. He has a career tally of -9 Outs Above Average as an outfielder while Ultimate Zone Rating has given him a grade of -5.1. Defensive Runs Saved has him at +13 but most of that is due to a +19 grade in 2019, which looks like a clear outlier.

Though Renfroe hasn’t been an all-around performer, his strengths have been enough for him to have value. Per FanGraphs’ versions of Wins Above Replacement, he produced between 1.5 and 2.5 wins in the four full seasons prior to 2023. He’s definitely coming off a weaker platform season, 0.6 fWAR, but he was at 1.1 before the waiver claim and hasty move to Cincinnati.

The Royals had plenty of questions in their outfield and don’t need Renfroe to be a superstar for him to count as an upgrade. Their outfielders hit a collective .228/.294/.393 in 2023 for a wRC+ of 83. Nelson Velázquez earned himself a role in 2024 with a power surge in 2023, but he could perhaps see some DH time since his glovework isn’t strongly rated. MJ Melendez could be in a corner but he’s coming off a disappointing season and has been in trade rumors, with some clubs perhaps willing to move him back to catcher. Center fielders Kyle Isbel and Drew Waters are good defenders but both are coming off poor seasons offensively. Edward Olivares and Dairon Blanco are also in the mix but have limited track records.

For a club coming off a 106-loss season, there’s merit to adding a guy like Renfroe who has a decent chance of being a solid regular. If he does so and the club remains a non-contender over the course of the deal, he could perhaps turn into a trade chip at some point. For Renfroe himself, he was able to lock in a decent chunk of change while also securing the ability to return to the open market a year from now if he can have a better platform.

This is the third time the Royals have given an opt-out this winter, with Lugo and Stratton also getting one in their deals. Perhaps the club is using this as a bit of an edge to lure players to a club that may not be the first choice of some free agents. The club hasn’t been a huge spender traditionally and has been producing poor results in recent years, but perhaps giving players some extra contractual agency has allowed them to overcome some of those obstacles.

General manager J.J. Picollo recently threw out $30MM as a ballpark figure for what the club could spend this winter to upgrade the 2024 club. The deals with Lugo, Smith, Stratton and Renfroe add up to $29.5MM. But news is now breaking about a deal with Michael Wacha, which also has an opt-out, so it seems the club wasn’t rigidly tied to that spending level.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first had the two sides nearing agreement on what was expected to be a one-year deal plus a player option. Anne Rogers of MLB.com relayed that the deal is still pending a physical. Jon Heyman of The New York Post confirmed the two-year/opt-out structure and relayed the $13MM guarantee and incentives. Feinsand then relayed the specific financial breakdown.

Pirates, Andrew McCutchen In Talks On Reunion

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Talks between the Pirates and Andrew McCutchen on a potential reunion have begun to accelerate, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. A deal between the two sides could be completed by early next week.

A reunion between McCutchen and the Pirates has been seen as something of a formality for several months now. McCutchen returned to his original organization last year, signing a one-year deal worth $5MM to serve as the team’s designated hitter and a part-time outfielder. He told Mackey at the time of his signing that he hoped to finish his career back in Pittsburgh, which felt like home. Cutch reiterated his desire to play in Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh only back in May, and after his season ended in early September with a partial tear of his Achilles, Pirates GM Ben Cherington said they hoped for a new deal and planned to talk with McCutchen this winter.

The now-37-year-old McCutchen is a franchise icon with the Pirates, who selected him with the 11th overall pick back in 2005 and watched him develop from one of the game’s top prospects, to a Rookie of the Year candidate, to a five-time All-Star and eventual National League MVP (2013). McCutchen signed a $51.5MM extension with the Bucs in 2012 but was traded after the team picked up an option for the seventh and final season of the deal — a swap that brought current cornerstone Bryan Reynolds to Pittsburgh.

After stops with the Giants, Yankees, Phillies and Brewers, McCutchen returned home last year and spoke often about his love of Pittsburgh and his desire to finish out his career there. It wasn’t all pure nostalgia, however, as the four-time Silver Slugger proved he still had life in his bat as well. McCutchen tallied 473 plate appearances and posted a .256/.378/.397 batting line, swatting a dozen homers, collecting 19 doubles and walking at a massive 15.9% clip.

The timing of McCutchen’s injury was particularly unfortunate, as it came on the cusp of a milestone. McCutchen sits at 299 career home runs — just one shy of becoming just the 160th player in MLB history to reach 300 home runs. The Pirates open the 2024 season on the road, so it’s possible that his milestone round-tripper could come away from the home fans, but regardless of where that historic long ball takes place, the fans at PNC Park will give McCutchen a hero’s welcome whenever he first takes the field again next season.

Assuming McCutchen resumes his role as a primary designated hitter, he’ll slot into a lineup with Reynolds and Jack Suwinski locked into outfield spots, Ke’Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz on the left side of the infield, Henry Davis behind the plate and recently signed Rowdy Tellez at first base. The Pirates currently have a projected payroll of just $58MM, and re-signing McCutchen at or close to the same terms as last year would push that to $63MM. It’s not clear quite how high the team’s payroll will go, but Cherington said at this month’s Winter Meetings that the payroll will increase over last year’s $73MM mark.

The Opener: Glasnow, Royals, SP Market

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As MLB’s offseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Glasnow deal appears imminent:

Reports yesterday indicated that the Dodgers and Rays have agreed upon a trade that would send right-hander Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot to the Dodgers in exchange for Ryan Pepiot and Jonny Deluca. The deal hinges on an extension being finalized between the Dodgers and Glasnow. A deal is expected to come together, with Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times suggesting it could occur as soon as today. When completed, the deal will begin to address L.A.’s massive vacancies in the rotation, where Glasnow will join Bobby Miller and Walker Buehler as surefire starting options. Emmet Sheehan and Ryan Yarbrough are among the club’s depth options for the rotation, though the Dodgers figure to continue looking to reinforce the group after posting a 4.57 ERA that was 11th-worst in all of baseball last year.

2. Royals 40-man roster move incoming?

Yesterday, the Royals cleared space on their 40-man roster for right-hander Seth Lugo by trading right-hander Taylor Clarke to the Brewers in exchange for right-hander Ryan Brady and infielder Cam Devanney, neither of whom are on the 40-man. Lugo isn’t the only free agent signing the club will need to make room for on their roster, however, as Kansas City also got together on a deal with right-hander Chris Stratton earlier this week. The Royals, of course, could simply designate a player on their 40-man for assignment to make room for Stratton, though it’s fair to wonder if the club hopes to work out another minor trade to clear roster space as it did with Milwaukee yesterday.

3. SP market heating up?

In addition to the aforementioned agreement on a Glasnow trade, the starting pitching market lost a pair of free agents yesterday as right-handers Jack Flaherty and Tyler Mahle signed on with the Tigers and Rangers, respectively. The deals further heat up a middle-to-back of the rotation market that has seen plenty of deals come together so far this offseason. The upper tiers of the market have lagged behind in comparison, with Eduardo Rodriguez agreeing to a contract this month after quick-strike deals came together for Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray in November. Generally, it seems as though the top-of-the-rotation market is being held up by the Yoshinobu Yamamoto bidding. Yamamoto visited with the Phillies, adding a new team to the widely-known field of contenders for his services that already included the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Giants, Red Sox, and Blue Jays.

Dodgers, Rays Agree To Tyler Glasnow Trade; Extension With Dodgers Expected

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The Dodgers and Rays are in agreement on a trade that would send right-hander Tyler Glasnow, outfielder Manuel Margot and $4MM to Los Angeles, with right-hander Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny Deluca going to Tampa. The deal is contingent on Glasnow signing an extension with the Dodgers, which is reportedly expected to get done.

Glasnow has been in trade rumors for weeks but this framework of players was reported on yesterday, but without a deal being completed before the end of the day. Passan reports that the extension window opened Thursday morning. The details of the extension talks aren’t publicly known but it seems there is some optimism that it will get done, and the trade along with it. Glasnow is from the Los Angeles area initially, which could perhaps help to facilitate a deal. The trade-and-extend path is rare in baseball but not entirely unprecedented. The Reds took this path with Sonny Gray going into 2019, acquiring him and signing him to a three-year extension.

The right-handed Glasnow has already signed one extension in his career, which is how this situation developed. In August of 2022, as he was coming back from Tommy John surgery, the Rays and Glasnow agreed to an extension. It would pay him $5.35MM in 2023, his final year of arbitration eligibility, and then a big jump to $25MM in 2024. Glasnow had battled significant health issues in his career but was able to lock in a huge payday before fully returning from surgery and re-establishing his health. The Rays, meanwhile, got an extra year of control by betting on Glasnow’s eventual return.

Glasnow did return to the mound late in that 2022 season, making two regular season starts and then another in the postseason. Here in 2023, he was healthy enough to take the ball 21 times and registered a 3.53 earned run average. The Rays subsequently lost plenty of other starting pitchers, with each of Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs undergoing significant elbow surgery in 2023.

All those factors combined to put the club in a tight spot, along with the finances. They have never run a payroll beyond the $80MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but came into the offseason projected for something closer to $120MM. Moving Glasnow and his $25MM salary in 2024 was one of the most straightforward ways for the club to cut costs, but that would only exacerbate their rotation concerns. Reports in recent weeks had suggested they were looking to acquire younger, cheaper pitching in any Glasnow deal. They have accomplished that with this trade and have also done the same thing in the outfield.

For the Dodgers, they already made the biggest splash of the offseason by landing Shohei Ohtani, but he isn’t going to pitch in 2024 due to his recent elbow surgery. Even after that lengthy Ohtani courtship, they still had a lot of work to do in their rotation. Lance Lynn, Julio Urías and Clayton Kershaw all reached free agency at season’s end. Kershaw has re-signed with the club many times before but he is recovering from shoulder surgery that will keep him out until at least the middle of the season. Dustin May is in a similar position after his flexor tendon surgery and Tommy John revision. Tony Gonsolin had Tommy John surgery and could miss all of 2024.

That left the club with Walker Buehler, who missed all of 2023 due to his own TJS, and Bobby Miller as their rotation core coming into the offseason. They had other options, including Pepiot, Michael Grove, Ryan Yarbrough, Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone, but it was obviously an area for the club to target this winter.

Glasnow now hasn’t been the picture of health in his career. His 120 innings pitched in 2023 were actually a career high. But a lot of that is due to the pandemic limiting him to 11 starts in 2020, and then the TJS impacting the two seasons after. In 2023, he did miss time with an oblique strain but his arm seemed to be fine.

His results on a rate basis have been very strong. Going back to the start of 2019, he has a 3.03 ERA. He struck out 35% of batters faced in that time, walked just 7.7% and kept 47.2% of balls in play on the ground. The Dodgers have generally been unafraid to gamble on talented arms with injury risk and Glasnow is the latest example of that.

The club will also bolster their outfield mix in this deal. With Mookie Betts moving to second base essentially full-time next year, the club’s outfield mix consisted of James Outman in center with Chris Taylor and Jason Heyward projected for the corners. Heyward had a nice bounceback season in 2023 but did so while the Dodgers shielded him from left-handed pitching.

Margot hits from the right side and should fit in nicely then. He has generally been a subpar hitter overall but does well with the platoon advantage. He’s hit .281/.341/.420 against lefties in his career for a 109 wRC+ compared to an 82 wRC+ and .244/.294/.370 line against righties.

He’s generally been a strong defender in his career. The grades for his glovework slipped a bit in 2023 but he was coming off a 2022 that he mostly missed due to a significant strain of the patellar tendon in his right knee. The Dodgers will likely be hoping that he’s able to post better results now that he’s further removed from that injury, but if he’s due for a part-time role, it won’t be devastating if that doesn’t come to fruition.

For the Rays, this is a classic trade for them. Due to their low payrolls, they often find themselves trading away players as their salaries increase and they get closer to free agency. The hope is always to acquire players that are younger, cheaper and with more club control, though they are also less established at the big league level. Glasnow is set to make $25MM next year while Margot is still owed $12MM, which includes a $10MM salary in 2024 and a $2MM buyout on a 2025 club option. Since they are including $4MM in the deal, this will save them $33MM, while hopefully keeping the talent on the roster minimally impacted.

Pepiot, 26, was a third-round pick in the 2019 draft and subsequently became a top 100 prospect. In 2022, he was able to throw 91 1/3 innings in Triple-A with a 2.56 ERA and 30.9% strikeout rate. He also made his major league debut, with a 3.47 ERA in his first 36 1/3 innings. While Gonsolin was sidelined to start the 2023 season, Pepiot was named the club’s fifth starter out of spring. Unfortunately, he then suffered an oblique strain that kept him on the injured list until August. He eventually tossed 42 more innings at the big league level with a 2.14 ERA.

The young righty has just over a year of service time, meaning he won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2025 and won’t reach free agency until after 2028 at the earliest. He also still has an option remaining, which gives the club some flexibility if they feel he needs some more seasoning, since he has just 78 1/3 innings of major league experience.

But he would likely project to be in the club’s Opening Day rotation right now. They could make more moves between now and then, but they currently have Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale as the most seasoned in the bunch. Zack Littell has been around a few years but only recently moved from the bullpen to the rotation. Shane Baz missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery but should be back in 2024, perhaps with workload concerns. Taj Bradley is also part of the calculus but he had an underwhelming debut in 2023. Amid all of those questions, there should be a path for Pepiot to carve out a role for himself, though subsequent transactions could perhaps make that more challenging.

Deluca, 25, has 24 games of major league experience to this point. He only walked in 6.7% of his plate appearances but also kept his strikeouts down to a 17.8% clip. His .262/.311/.429 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 102. He has performed very well in the minors over the past two years. Since the start of 2022, he’s appeared in 171 games on the farm with 42 home runs, a 10.4% walk rate and 16.7% strikeout rate. His .274/.365/.552 batting line in that time leads to a 135 wRC+.

He still has a couple of options but could try to earn himself a job in the big leagues this year. The club’s outfield projects to include Jose Siri, Randy Arozarena and Josh Lowe, with Luke Raley and others also in the mix. Arozarena has also been in trade rumors but this deal could perhaps lessen the needs for the Rays to continue dropping the payroll.

Ultimately, none of this is confirmed, as it all stills hinges on the Glasnow extension getting done. Though there’s optimism around getting that over the finish line, no details about those talks have filtered out yet. Assuming it is completed, the Rays will have done what they always do, cycling out expensive players for cheaper ones that they hope to mold to a similar talent level. The Dodgers are picking up win-now pieces, while the Glasnow extension will help them down the road as well. Buehler is slated for free agency after 2024 but Glasnow could perhaps be joined by Gonsolin and May by then, while some of the other young arms while hopefully have blossomed in the interim.

Both clubs likely still have significant moves to make in the months to come. The Dodgers still could use some more starting pitching, even with Glasnow in the fold, while the Rays could perhaps use their cost savings to pursue rotation additions of their own.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first relayed that a Glasnow extension was a possibility. Jeff Passan of ESPN relayed that the deal was agreed to, contingent on that Glasnow extension. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first relayed the inclusion of the $4MM.

Rangers Sign Tyler Mahle To Two-Year Deal

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The Rangers have taken another upside shot in the rotation, signing Tyler Mahle to a two-year contract. It’s reportedly a $22MM guarantee for the ISE Baseball client, who can earn up to $5MM more in bonuses depending on his 2025 innings tally. He will have a salary of $5.5MM in 2024 and $16.5MM in 2025, and the deal comes with a limited no-trade clause. He’ll miss the start of the ’24 season as he completes his rehab from last season’s Tommy John surgery. Texas has two additional openings on the 40-man roster.

Mahle spent a season and a half with the Twins. Minnesota acquired the right-hander from the Reds at the 2022 trade deadline. It turned out to be one of the more lopsided deadline deals of the past couple summers. Cincinnati acquired Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and prospect Steve Hajjar, whom they subsequently flipped to the Guardians as part of a deal for Will Benson.

Unfortunately for Minnesota, injuries ruined their end of the deal. Mahle landed on the injured list within a few weeks of his acquisition as a result of shoulder inflammation. He returned, pitched once, then went back on the IL for the remainder of the season. Mahle looked back to form early in 2023, working to a 3.16 ERA over five starts. He suffered an elbow injury during his outing on April 27 and underwent the Tommy John procedure a couple weeks later.

That ended his season and ultimately, his tenure with the Twins. Given the approximate 14-month recovery timeline often associated with TJS rehab, he could return sometime around the All-Star Break. That would put Mahle on a similar trajectory as Jacob deGrom, who underwent the same surgery around four weeks later.

While Mahle wouldn’t bring the same level of upside as deGrom, he’d be a high-ceiling addition in his own right. The 29-year-old developed into a quality mid-rotation starter late in his time in Cincinnati. Between 2020 and the ’22 deadline, he worked to a 3.93 ERA in 332 innings spanning 62 appearances. Mahle punched out an above-average 27.4% of batters faced over that stretch against a manageable 8.9% walk rate. Despite pitching in a difficult home park, he allowed only 1.1 home runs per nine innings.

Mahle’s velocity has been down a bit over the past two seasons, which isn’t surprising given the arm issues. In 2021, he averaged 94 MPH on his four-seam with a plus cutter/slider that sat around 87 MPH. Mahle has a splitter to deploy against left-handed hitters and has posted neutral platoon numbers over his career.

If he can recapture his pre-surgery form, Mahle would fit into the middle or back end of a quality Texas rotation. The Rangers haven’t been shy about taking on injury risk to pursue high-upside starters. deGrom was the prime example, of course, but each of Mahle, Jon Gray, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney were talented fliers in the middle tiers of the starting pitching market.

Max Scherzer anchors the season-opening staff. Eovaldi, Gray, Heaney and Dane Dunning project to fill out the remainder of the Opening Day five. Texas should have more clarity on the respective health statuses of deGrom and Mahle as next summer’s trade deadline approaches.

Mahle’s contract narrowly tops MLBTR’s two-year, $20MM prediction. It’s just north of the $20MM guarantee secured by Rockies right-hander Germán Márquez, a similar caliber of pitcher who signed for two years after undergoing Tommy John surgery in May. Mahle, who turned 29 in September, is on track to get back to free agency in advance of his age-31 season in 2026.

The $11MM average annual value brings the Rangers’ competitive balance tax number to roughly $232MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That’s just below next season’s $237MM base threshold. Texas carried an approximate $252MM luxury tax number last season. While their championship run surely brought in a fair amount of playoff revenue, the organization is also facing some uncertainty about its local television rights contract. GM Chris Young indicated at the Winter Meetings that the team would be a little quieter in free agency than they’d been in the past few offseasons.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the $22MM guarantee and $5MM in performance bonuses. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the specific annual breakdown and limited no-trade.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Yankees, Duane Underwood Jr. Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Yankees are signing right-hander Duane Underwood Jr. to a minor league contract, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. The righty will receive an invite to major league Spring Training.

Underwood, 29, had a challenging year in 2023. He tossed 24 1/3 innings for the Pirates with a 5.18 earned run average. His 44% ground ball rate was solid but he struck out just 14% of batters faced while giving out walks at an 11% clip. He also threw 20 innings in Triple-A with a 6.30 ERA. He was outrighted by the Pirates during the season and elected free agency in October.

Despite that rough season, the Yanks are likely intrigued based on the previous two campaigns. Over 2021 and 2022, Underwood threw 130 innings with a 4.36 ERA, 21.1% strikeout rate, 9% walk rate and 45.7% ground ball rate. He might have been unlucky in that time, with his .324 batting average on balls in play and 66.5% strand rate each falling on the unfortunate side of average. That’s why his 3.68 FIP in that stretch looks far nicer than his ERA.

Underwood will provide the Yanks with a bit of non-roster depth for the bullpen. If he is able to crack the roster at any point, he is out of options, meaning he couldn’t be sent back down to the minors without first being exposed to waivers. His service time clock is currently between three and four years, meaning he could be retained for future seasons via arbitration if things go especially well in 2024.

Report: Angels Did Not Match Dodgers’ Offer For Ohtani

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The Dodgers recently signed Shohei Ohtani to a 10-year, $700MM contract, though with heavy deferrals that make the net present value significantly less than that. He was reportedly discussing similar deals with clubs like the Giants and Blue Jays but Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times reports that Angels’ owner Arte Moreno did not want to match those offers.

As mentioned, the deal with the Dodgers is heavily deferred, with Ohtani set to make just $2MM annually during the course of the deal. He will then received $68MM per year for the 10 years after he has played the seasons covered by the contract. That brings down the net present value, with the league valuing it at just over $460MM while the MLBPA has it at $437,830,563. Farhan Zaidi, the president of baseball operations of the Giants, recently revealed that the club offered Ohtani essentially the same deal he accepted from the Dodgers. The Blue Jays were “right there,” according to a report from Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.

All reports indicated that Ohtani and his reps were driving a lot of the negotiations. It was apparently Ohtani’s idea to have such an unusual contract structure, which he proposed as it would allow the signing club more financial freedom in the short term to build a winning club around him. The Dodgers, Giants and Blue Jays were all seemingly willing to meet his ask in comparable ways, but he chose the Dodgers and their unparalleled track record of recent success.

The Angels, however, don’t appear to have been at the final table. Per the report from Harris, Ohtani’s agent Nez Balelo reached out to them towards the end of the process and gave them a chance to convince Ohtani to stay. But Moreno was reportedly unwilling to match the offer Ohtani eventually signed. “It’s a place that he really loved to play. He loved the people there, everything. So we didn’t want to miss the idea of giving them an opportunity,” Balelo said “But at the end, it just wasn’t going to work.”

As Harris points out, it’s not clear Ohtani would have seriously considered a return to Anaheim even if they were willing to match the asking price. But the fact that they were not willing to do so seems to eliminated any chances of a reunion. It’s unknown what kind of final offer the Angels did make.

Moreno has generally been unafraid to spend big on star players, giving big deals to players like Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and Anthony Rendon. It’s interesting that he decided to pull the reins on the Ohtani chase, though it’s unknown exactly why or how close they were.

The club will now have to enter a post-Ohtani world and try to chart a course forward without him. General manager Perry Minasian has made it clear that the club is not rebuilding and is not trading Trout. In 2023, they ran their payroll up against the competitive balance tax, ultimately staying narrowly beneath it. Roster Resource pegs their 2024 CBT number at $168MM at the moment, almost $70MM below next year’s base threshold. That should give them plenty of room to make some bold strikes, likely to upgrade the pitching staff. Despite having both Ohtani and Trout on the roster for the past six years, the Angels haven’t finished above .500 since 2015, made the playoffs since 2014 or won a postseason game since 2009.

Tigers, Freddy Pacheco Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Tigers have agreed to a new minor league deal with Freddy Pacheco, reports Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press. Detroit had non-tendered the reliever in November.

Pacheco has yet to pitch in the major leagues. A former Cardinals prospect, he was added to St. Louis’ 40-man roster going into the 2022 season. The Cards put him on waivers a year later, at which point the Tigers stepped in to place a claim. His efforts to reach the majors had been halted by an elbow injury late in the winter. Pacheco unsuccessfully attempted to rehab before undergoing Tommy John surgery in early June.

The 25-year-old remains on the mend from that procedure. It cost him his 40-man spot, as the Tigers couldn’t keep him on the injured list over the offseason. He’ll stick in the organization with an eye towards a late-season return and potential MLB debut in 2024.

Before the injury, Pacheco showed interesting raw stuff in the minors. He can run his fastball into the upper 90s and punched out more than a third of opponents in 2022. The righty combined for a 3.05 ERA in 62 innings with the Cardinals’ top two affiliates that season.

Pirates Acquire Billy McKinney From Yankees

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The Pirates have acquired outfielder Billy McKinney from the Yankees in exchange for international bonus pool money, reports Jack Curry of Yes Network. As noted by Curry, McKinney just recently signed a minor league deal with the Yanks. That means he wasn’t on the 40-man roster and won’t take a roster spot with the Bucs.

It’s an unusual trade as McKinney, 29, just signed that deal with the Yankees last week. The former first-round pick and former top 100 prospect hasn’t been able to put it all together at the big league level. In 311 big league games dating back to his 2018 debut, he’s hit .209/.284/.390 for a wRC+ of 81.

He got into 48 contests for the Yankees this year, walking in 11.6% of his plate appearances but also striking out at a 26.5% rate. His .227/.320/.406 batting line amounted to a 101 wRC+, indicating he was right around league average overall, but the Yankees outrighted him off the roster at season’s end. He elected free agency and returned on a minor league deal but will now jump to the Pirates’ organization.

It’s possible that McKinney’s acquisition is related to the Pittsburgh catching situation. Prospects Endy Rodríguez and Henry Davis both debuted in 2023, but Rodríguez got the majority of the catching duties as Davis spent most of his time in right field. The club has maintained that they still viewed Davis as a catcher and his path to doing so opened up when it was reported this week that Rodríguez will require UCL/flexor tendon surgery and miss the entire 2024 season.

If Davis isn’t an option for the outfield, then the Bucs will have an opening in right field, with Jack Suwinski in center and Bryan Reynolds in left. They have some options on the roster in Joshua Palacios, Connor Joe, Ji Hwan Bae and Canaan Smith-Njigba but McKinney will give them some non-roster depth.

In order to add that depth, they are sending some unknown amount of international bonus pool space to the Yankees. The current international signing period ends tomorrow, so it’s possible the Bucs had a bit of their pool left and weren’t going to use it, while the Yanks had someone in mind to spend it on. Most clubs spend large chunks of their pools right as the period opens, so the amount could be on the low side.

In the event McKinney gets a roster spot, he is out of options but has just over three years of service time. If he has his long-awaited breakout, the Bucs could keep him around beyond 2024 via arbitration.

Giants Sign Jung Hoo Lee To Six-Year Deal

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December 14: The Giants have officially announced the deal and provided the full salary breakdown. Lee will get a $5MM signing bonus then salaries of $7MM in 2024 $16MM the year after, $22MM in 2026-27 and $20.5MM in each of the final two years if he doesn’t opt out after the fourth.

December 12: The Giants and outfielder Jung Hoo Lee are in agreement on a six-year, $113MM deal, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. There is an opt-out after four years. In addition to that guarantee, the Giants will owe a posting fee of $18.825MM to the Kiwoom Heroes. Lee is a client of the Boras Corporation.

Lee, 25, has been a highly anticipated free agent for a long time now. It was reported in January that the Kiwoom Heroes of the Korea Baseball Organization would post him for MLB clubs after the 2023 campaign. At that point, Lee was coming off an excellent 2022 campaign.

He had always had strong plate discipline but took that part of his game to new heights last year, walking in 10.5% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 5.1% of them. He had never hit more than 15 home runs in a season but managed to tally 23 in that season. He finished with a batting line of .349/.421/.575 for a wRC+ of 175, indicating he was 75 percent better than league average. He also won a Golden Glove award for a fifth straight year and also earned MVP honors.

But his platform year didn’t go quite according to plan. He hit .318/.406/.455 with just six homers in his 86 games in 2023. He injured his left ankle in late July, necessitating season-ending surgery. Nonetheless, he garnered plenty of interest from clubs like the Giants, Padres, Yankees and Mets before being officially posted last week.

The profile was somewhat similar to Masataka Yoshida, who was another contact-over-power player coming from overseas. Yoshida played in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball until signing with the Red Sox for 2023 on a five-year, $90MM deal. Since the NPB is generally considered a notch above the KBO, that could perhaps lead an observer to preferring his track record to Lee’s.

But there are a couple of reasons why Lee might be preferable, one of which is age. The ability to sign an everyday player who is just 25 years of age doesn’t occur very often, and the widespread interest in both Lee and Yoshinobu Yamamoto shows that clubs place value on that youth. Yoshida, by contract, was coming over for his age-29 season. Lee’s opt-out gives him the chance to potentially return to the open market before his 30th birthday, after perhaps having proven himself capable as a major leaguer.

The other thing Lee appears to have over Yoshida is defensive acumen. Yoshida was considered a left-field-only player before signing and was graded poorly for his glovework with Boston, which could lead to him spending more time as a designated hitter over the years. Lee, however, is considered strong in the field. Evaluators are split on whether or not he can stick in center, where he spent most of his time with the Heroes. In Major League Baseball, he could be either a passable center fielder or better suited to a corner, depending on who you ask.

All of the questions make Lee difficult to project and it seems fair to categorize this as a high-risk, high-reward play. As recently pointed out by Eno Sarris of The Athletic, Lee’s batted ball metrics come in a bit below those of Ha-Seong Kim in his last KBO season. Kim struggled in his first MLB season, though eventually adjusted enough to be slightly above average at the plate in each of the past two seasons. MLBTR predicted that Lee would secure a five-year, $50MM deal, but the Giants have soared well past that, more than doubling it. Given their strong investment here, they likely have high confidence in Lee, both in his ability to hit major league pitching and perhaps stick in center field as well.

Just as the offseason was kicking off, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi stated that defensive upgrades in the outfield were a priority for this winter. “We’ll look to add a little bit more speed, a little bit more range to the outfield,” Zaidi said at that time. There were good reasons for such a target. The club’s outfielders posted a collective -13 Outs Above Average in 2023, with only the Cardinals and Rockies coming in below them. Their -7 Defensive Runs Saved and -12.4 Ultimate Zone Rating also fell in the bottom 10 league wide.

The Giants didn’t really have a full-time center fielder in 2023, as no player lined up there for more than 57 games. Each of Luis Matos, Mike Yastrzemski, Austin Slater, Bryce Johnson, Brett Wisely and Wade Meckler got into double digits, while Tyler Fitzgerald, Cal Stevenson, Heliot Ramos, LaMonte Wade Jr. and AJ Pollock had brief stints there. The club is likely hoping that Lee can solidify that position while pushing Yastrzemski into the corner outfield mix alongside guys like Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto. Matos may wind up back in the minors after a mediocre MLB debut in 2023, or perhaps the club would consider putting him on the trading block.

In addition to the $113MM that Lee will receive, the Giants will also owe a posting fee to the Heroes. With any player posted for MLB clubs, the signing team owes a fee to the posting club, relative to the size of the contract. It’s 20% of the first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. For this deal, the Giants will owe $18.825MM to the Heroes on this deal, meaning they are actually shelling out $131.825MM in order to add Lee to the roster.

In recent years, the Giants have tried to sign star players and have come up just short. They were in the running for Aaron Judge last year before he returned to the Yankees. They had a deal in place with Carlos Correa before they balked at his physical and walked away, leading to him returning to the Twins. They were in the running for Shohei Ohtani this offseason before he signed with the Dodgers.

Lee doesn’t quite match up to those players in terms of star power but this is easily the largest investment of Zaidi’s tenure. The club gave a $90MM extension to Logan Webb but the biggest free agent deals in recent years were $44MM to Carlos Rodón and $43.5MM to Haniger. The Rodón deal had an opt-out after the first year that was eventually triggered, so the club didn’t even pay out that full contract.

The specific contract breakdown hasn’t been reported but that won’t be relevant for the competitive balance tax, which goes by the average annual value of a deal. Roster Resource has already plugged in Lee’s AAV and has the Giants’ CBT number at $189MM. It’s unknown if they are willing to cross the $237MM base threshold next year, but even if not, they could still have around $45MM to pursue upgrades elsewhere on the roster.

For the clubs that missed out on Lee, free agency still features capable center fielders like Cody Bellinger, Harrison Bader, Kevin Kiermaier and Michael A. Taylor, while the trade market could feature players like Dylan Carlson or Manuel Margot.

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