Remaining Needs: NL East
Quite a few of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents have already signed, though there are still a host of players available on the open market. We’ve seen somewhat less action on the trade market, which still features a number of stars and other useful targets.
Those links provide lots of info on the supply side. But what about demand? We’ll run through each division to identify the biggest-remaining needs of each team.
Atlanta Braves [Offseason Outlook]
As they did last time around, the Braves sprinted out of the gates to address multiple key needs. But the club’s biggest question entering the winter — what to do about the departure of star third baseman Josh Donaldson — remains unanswered. It’s a good roster as-is, but the lineup would look a whole lot better with another big bat in the middle of it. If Donaldson can’t be retained, the Braves could look to the trade market at third base or pursue one of the remaining corner outfielders and re-shuffle their internal deck accordingly. The club seems quite settled otherwise but could still explore opportunistic rotation additions.
Miami Marlins [Offseason Outlook]
The Fish have spent the winter plugging in one-year veterans and jettisoning unwanted relievers. The idea was to create a mix that will improve the results a bit in the near term while simultaneously aiding the development of and avoiding undue pressure on young players. Much of that work is already done, but the team is reportedly still looking to add a power-hitting corner outfielder who’d supplement (or supplant?) recent minor-league signee Matt Kemp. Perusing the roster, it seems there’s also room to pick up a veteran pitcher or two to join the bullpen or perhaps the rotation. That’d become a clear priority in the event of a trade involving Caleb Smith, Jose Urena, or some other pitcher. Presumably, the club will continue to explore trade opportunities involving those and other players while keeping an eye on the waiver wire.
New York Mets [Offseason Outlook]
Aided by a renegotiation of the Yoenis Cespedes contract, the Mets have placed a series of expensive (a combined $25MM+) single-season bets on high-variance veteran pitchers. Having picked up two new starting-capable hurlers, a pair of bullpen pieces, and a part-time center fielder in Jake Marisnick, the New York org has already ticked the boxes it needed to.
So … why doesn’t it feel like GM Brodie Van Wagenen is finished? With a forthcoming ownership transition underscoring the need to win now, the club’s top baseball exec can’t afford to leave any stones unturned in his sophomore offseason. Installing a top-flight center fielder — Starling Marte looks like the best bet — would be at the top of the list, but the club can also explore blockbuster scenarios at other positions. It’s possible to imagine further improvements to the bench and bullpen mix, too. The Mets will be most keen to utilize blocked first baseman Dominic Smith as a trade chip — whether to bring back prospects, shed the Jed Lowrie contract, or deliver a different MLB piece — but younger big leaguers J.D. Davis and Steven Matz could also conceivably be dangled.
Philadelphia Phillies [Offseason Outlook]
The Phils landed two of MLBTR’s top dozen free agents, and they did so for lesser commitments than were necessary to secure quite a few other top players. That’s a nice start, but hardly sufficient to stand out from the other three contending teams in this division. Improving the bullpen remains an unfulfilled priority. While the rotation no longer stands out as a problem, it’s susceptible of being bettered. And the position-player mix doesn’t feel quite finished. The Phillies could choose to utilize Adam Haseley in center field and Scott Kingery at third base. But the lineup would look better with a newly installed regular for at least one of those positions, freeing Kingery to function as a super-sub and reducing the team’s reliance upon the still-unproven Haseley. It’s a tough scene in free agency unless the club reimposes itself in the market for Josh Donaldson. Creative trade exploration seems advisable. The Phils also still must figure out what to do with Odubel Herrera, who’ll be returning from a suspension.
Washington Nationals [Offseason Outlook]
Having finally completed a summit attempt, the Nats face new challenges in a repeat bid. Not unlike the Braves and Phillies, the D.C. roster would look much better with Josh Donaldson added in at the hot corner. If they miss on Donaldson, the Nats could be forced into some difficult and high-stakes trade talks. There’s an opening at second base as well — especially if the club intends to utilize the recently re-signed Howie Kendrick at first base, which is partially dependent upon its decision with regard to Ryan Zimmerman — which creates both need and opportunity.
Youngster Carter Kieboom could be cast into a big role, but the organization probably prefers to see him force his way up rather than relying on him out of the gates. It’s possible to imagine the addition of multiple veteran infielders from a large remaining pool, with a plan to mix and match and adapt over the course of the season. Any of the team’s internally developed reserve players could be supplanted over the next few months. Ditto the holdover fifth-starter and middle-relief options. Another rotation piece (if only for camp competition) and one or more relievers (preferably including a legit setup option) also remain on the list of needs for president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo, who’s overseeing a huge amount of roster turnover while trying to recover from a (literal and figurative) championship hangover.
Latest On Hyun-Jin Ryu’s Market
There has been widespread interest in left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has become even more of a prized commodity since he is now the only starting pitcher remaining within the top 38 players on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents. The current field of suitors appears to consist of seven teams, as listed by MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), give or take one unconfirmed team and, of course, the ever-popular “mystery team.”
Heyman’s list includes several teams who have been already linked to Ryu at earlier points this winter — the Dodgers, Angels, Blue Jays, and Twins. The “mystery team” could be the Braves (who are known to some level of interest in Ryu, though perhaps only peripherally), Heyman guessed, though he doesn’t mention the Cardinals, who were said to be considering Ryu two weeks ago. Since that report, however, St. Louis added another pitcher in Korean southpaw Kwang-Hyun Kim, who came at a much lower price tag than Ryu (though, obviously, without the MLB track record). With Kim in the fold, it could be that the Cards feel their rotation mix is set, and Ryu is no longer a target.
The other teams mentioned in Ryu’s market are two new faces, as Heyman writes that the Padres and “possibly [the] Phillies” could have interest. While the two clubs have yet to be connected to Ryu this offseason, it isn’t surprising that either San Diego or Philadelphia would be looking in, given how both teams have been looking to upgrade their respective rotations.
The Phils already made one big splash in signing Zack Wheeler to a five-year, $118MM contract. However, Wheeler is only one addition to a pitching staff that generated 7.6 total fWAR (23rd in the majors) in 2019. Wheeler and Aaron Nola are a good top-of-the-rotation pairing, though the remaining options of Jake Arrieta and two of the Zach Eflin/Vince Velasquez/Nick Pivetta trio aren’t terribly inspiring, given how these arms all struggled last season. Ryu would be a nice addition to any staff, but he would especially help the Phillies keep pace with the other loaded rotations in the NL East.
Since the Phillies already have a projected payroll (just under $205.4MM, as per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource) that sits just barely under the $208MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold, however, it remains to be seen if the club is willing to surpass the threshold for another star player like Ryu. Philadelphia was reportedly looking to be more “opportunistic” with their future signings to avoid the tax, though the team could take the one-year hit while staying in the first level of tax penalties, which is a CBT number of less than $228MM. Arrieta, Didi Gregorius, and David Robertson all come off the books after the 2020 season, so the Phillies could duck back under the tax threshold after just one year.
The CBT isn’t a concern for the Padres, though payroll itself is an issue, as the club has reportedly been trying to deal Wil Myers‘ contract for weeks. Despite having some level of financial limitation in place, San Diego has been looking for frontline pitching for over a year, mostly on the trade front given how the Padres have so many strong minor leaguers to offer as trade chips. The Padres have also explored free agent signings, and Ryu is clearly a known quantity after facing him for so many years in a Dodgers uniform. Adding an experienced veteran like Ryu to the young staff could make the Padres more open to move other younger arms (if not the trio of Chris Paddack, MacKenzie Gore, or Luis Patino) as part of future trades to bring salary relief, perhaps attached to Myers as sweeteners in a deal.
Phillies Sign T.J. Rivera To Minor-League Deal
The Phillies agreed to a minor-league deal last week with T.J. Rivera, as first reported by Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). No other terms are known, but it wouldn’t be surprising if the former Mets’ infielder secured an invite to MLB spring training.
Rivera, now 31, hasn’t seen MLB action since a September 2017 Tommy John Surgery. Before that injury, he had done fairly well as a role player in Queens, slashing .304/.335/.445 (109 wRC+), while logging time at first, second, third and in left field. He’s never been one to draw many walks or hit for much power, but he perennially put the ball in play in the minors and ran a minuscule 14.2% strikeout rate over his 344 MLB plate appearances.
Rivera latched on with the Nationals on a minor-league deal last August, but an undisclosed injury limited him to fifteen games in AA. He’ll try to earn a spot as a right-handed utility option off Joe Girardi’s bench, much like Phil Gosselin, whom the Phillies also recently signed to a minor-league deal.
NL East Notes: Bumgarner, Ryu, Cespedes, Nationals, Phillies
The Braves weren’t willing to go beyond a three-year contract for Madison Bumgarner, and “it seems highly doubtful” they would go to four years for Hyun-Jin Ryu, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes. Atlanta’s interest in Ryu is something of a new development, but Bowman feels it could be more due diligence on the Braves’ part than anything else, in case Ryu’s market shifts within the two- to three-year range. Multiple teams have been linked to Ryu this offseason, though it remains unclear whether any club will be willing to stretch to four years for a hurler who will be 33 years old on Opening Day and possesses a lengthy injury history.
The latest from around the NL East…
- Could Yoenis Cespedes be a trade chip? A deal seems unlikely, but MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports that the Mets have received some trade interest in the outfielder in the wake of last week’s news that Cespedes’ salary has been reduced to less than $10MM, though with significant incentives that could make it worth $20MM (assuming Cespedes gets on the field at all in 2020, of course). Cespedes has a full no-trade clause, though DiComo speculates that Cespedes might welcome a change of scenery to a team that could offer him DH at-bats, or just to get away from “a team that successfully filed a grievance against him.” It could be that rival teams are open to absorbing Cespedes’ contract as a method of acquiring some younger talent from New York, similar to how the Giants recently took Zack Cozart‘s salary off the Angels’ hands in order to land shortstop prospect Will Wilson, or how the Mets themselves are trying to attach a younger player to Jeurys Familia or Jed Lowrie in a trade.
- The Nationals‘ fifth starter competition is examined by Sam Fortier of the Washington Post, who reports that Erick Fedde has a minor league option remaining. This might not bode well for Fedde’s chances, as the Nats could send him down to Triple-A in favor of Austin Voth or Joe Ross, who are both out of options. That’s assuming, of course, that D.C. ends up going forward with one of these three in-house arms as the fifth starter. Fortier notes that the team was seemingly satisfied with this same trio last winter before signing Jeremy Hellickson prior to Spring Training, so it isn’t out of the question that the World Series champs could pursue another low-cost veteran before the offseason is out.
- We haven’t heard much about David Phelps about this offseason, but Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer feels the right-hander would be a good (and relatively inexpensive) addition to the Phillies bullpen. After missing all of 2018 due to Tommy John surgery, Phelps had a solid comeback year in 2019, posting a 3.41 ERA, 2.12 K/BB rate, and 9.4 K/9 over 34 1/3 innings for the Cubs and Blue Jays. Phelps pitched under Phils manager Joe Girardi with the Yankees in 2012-14, and when asked about the reliever at the Winter Meetings, Girardi praised Phelps’ versatility, game preparation skills, and good numbers against both right-handed and left-handed batters.
Phillies, Mikie Mahtook Agree To Minor League Deal
The Phillies have agreed to a minor league contract with outfielder Mikie Mahtook, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. The CAA client will be in Major League Spring Training and would earn an $850K base salary upon making the big league roster.
Mahtook, 30, showed well through 115 plate appearances as a Rays rookie in 2015 and posted a solid season with the Tigers in 2017 (.276/.330/.457 in 379 plate appearances). Outside of those two efforts, however, he hasn’t performed well in parts of five seasons in the Majors. The former first-rounder is a career .235/.292/.405 hitter with a 6.1 percent walk rate and a 26.4 percent strikeout rate through 965 trips to the plate at the game’s top level.
Mahtook will give the Phils an experienced right-handed-hitting option at all three outfield positions — one who does have a more solid .269/.342/.441 career line in parts of five Triple-A seasons (1818 plate appearances). The outfield in Philadelphia will assuredly feature Bryce Harper and Andrew McCutchen in the corners, but center field lacks clarity after Odubel Herrera was suspended for half the season under MLB’s domestic violence policy. Alternative in-house options include Adam Haseley, Scott Kingery (if he’s not deployed at third base) and Roman Quinn.
Latest On Dellin Betances
7:52am: Betances is hoping to secure a one-year deal in the $10MM range, Heyman tweets. That’s the same guarantee Blake Treinen just landed with the Dodgers, although while Treinen had a down season in 2019, he was at least healthy and pitched 58 2/3 innings in 2019.
Dec. 17, 5:55am: The Mets are now considered unlikely to sign Betances, Heyman tweets. SNY’s Andy Martino hears similarly, tweeting that it doesn’t sound as though the Mets will be the team to land the right-hander.
Dec. 16: A report at the end of November indicated the Phillies were among the teams chasing free-agent reliever Dellin Betances. That remains the case, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (by way of Jack Curry of the YES Network), as he relays that they and the NL East rival Mets are “prominent” in the Betances sweepstakes.
Heading to Philadelphia would reunite Betances with skipper Joe Girardi, who managed the hard-throwing right-hander with the Yankees from 2011-17. Betances had some of the best years of his outstanding career during that stretch, but he’s now coming off an injury-ravaged season in which he barely pitched. Shoulder, lat and Achilles problems limited the 31-year-old Betances to a total of two-thirds of an inning in 2019, leaving him as a strong candidate to sign a short-term deal this winter. MLBTR predicts he’ll ink a one-year, $7MM contract, which should be a reasonable gamble for the Phillies or any other team in need of bullpen help.
A $7MM price tag for a reliever fresh off a limited campaign may have looked somewhat steep for the Mets earlier in the offseason, but they’ve come into some money in recent days with the reworking of outfielder Yoenis Cespedes‘ contract. Cespedes, who went through two injury-wrecked years from 2018-19, had been slated to earn $29.5MM next season. However, Cespedes and the Mets just agreed to an amended contract that will guarantee him a far more team-friendly sum (less than $10MM) in 2020.
The Mets have more to work with as a result of Cespedes’ pay cut, and a source told Ken Davidoff of the New York Post that they’re “nowhere near done” after signing starters Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha. Perhaps they’ll use some of the money that had been earmarked for Cespedes on Betances, who – at least on paper – would vastly improve the back end of a bullpen that was a frequent issue last season. Notably, new Mets manager Carlos Beltran was once teammates with Betances as a Yankee.
Jay Bruce Hires Excel Sports Management
Phillies outfielder Jay Bruce has changed representation and is now a client of Excel Sports Management, tweets Robert Murray. He’d previously been repped by Sosnick, Cobbe and Karon but sought new representation after his agent, Matt Sosnick, left the company following an arrest on charges of domestic violence. The agency has since rebranded as Apex Baseball.
Apex still retains a number of notable high-end clients (Pete Alonso, Blake Snell, Max Kepler, Blake Treinen, Mitch Haniger and Brendan McKay among them). Right-hander Chad Bettis also departed prior to the rebrand, hiring CAA Baseball to represent him moving forward.
The 32-year-old Bruce had a bizarre 2019 season, ranking ninth in the Majors (min. 300 plate appearances) with a career-high .306 isolated power mark (slugging minus batting average). But despite being one of baseball’s most powerful hitters in 2019, Bruce’s .261 OBP ranked 270th of 273 hitters with that same 300-PA minimum.
One might think that Bruce suddenly became extremely prone to strikeouts or infield flies to drive down his average and OBP, but that wasn’t the case. His 24.6 percent strikeout rate wasn’t outlandish by today’s standards, nor were the eight infield flies he registered. He batted just .121 on grounders, though, suggesting that he was particularly prone to outs via the shift. Even still, his .200 average on balls in play seems ripe for positive regression in 2020.
Bruce is signed through the 2020 season under the three-year, $39MM contract he inked with the Mets prior to the 2018 campaign and will be a free agent for the second time in his career next offseason. He’ll join Didi Gregorius, Michael Brantley, Joc Pederson and Jake Odorizzi among notable Excel free agents next winter.
The change in representation for Bruce has been updated in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains agency info on more than 2,500 players in both the big leagues and the minors. If you see any errors or omissions, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.
Quick Hits: Brewers, Garcia, Phillies, Bumgarner, Red Sox, Price
The Brewers are “trying hard” to bring Avisail Garcia to Milwaukee, tweets The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Earlier, Jose F. Rivera of ESPN Deportes put the Brewers close to a deal with the Mato Sports Management client. Garcia would figure to be a good fit to share time in the outfield with the lefty-hitting Ben Gamel. Garcia has played mostly right field in his career, a few spot starts in left notwithstanding. If indeed he does sign with the Brewers, it could mean moving Christian Yelich back to left. Ryan Braun is also an option for the outfield, though as of right now he’s penciled in for the lion’s share of starts at first base.
- Having nabbed a couple of former New York athletes in Zack Wheeler and Didi Gregorius, the Phillies are near their spending limit for 2019. Together, Wheeler and Gregorius add $37.6MM to Philly’s luxury tax ledger for 2019. Estimates put the Phillies right up against the $208MM tax threshold, putting some added emphasis to any further moves made this winter. Still, execs from around the league believe they are open to further spending, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. The Phillies will continue to look for “opportunistic” signings. It’s unlikely, then, that the Phillies would be in on Madison Bumgarner, given the league-wide interest in the lefty and the hefty contract he is likely to secure.
- Sneaking under the luxury tax remains a “realistic” goal for the Red Sox, per The Athletic’s Chad Jennings. The new regime led by Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom took a more egalitarian approach to the winter meetings than in recent years. Boston took the time to gauge the lay of the land rather than strike hard for a specific target. Moving all or most of the three-years, $96MM owed to David Price is still the quickest path to ducking the tax, but Bloom is resistant to making Price’s contract more palatable by attaching prospects. They are, however, willing to pay down Price’s contract to get it closer to $20MM per year rather than the current $32MM. Until Price does get moved, expect more of the same as the Red Sox will continue to work around the margins to tweak the roster.
Phillies To Sign Matt Szczur
The Phillies have a minor-league deal in place with outfielder Matt Szczur, according to Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly. It includes an invitation to participate in MLB Spring Training.
Szczur, 30, failed to crack the majors last year for the first time since he broke in with the Cubs in 2014. The New Jersey native stayed put at Triple-A with the Diamondbacks in 2019, due in no small part to leg issues that limited him to 44 games of action.
When he was available for the Snakes’ top affiliate, Szczur turned in a strong .322/.309/.577 batting line over 172 plate appearances. That output dwarfs his lifetime .231/.312/.355 slash in 667 trips to the plate in the majors.
It’s possible that Szczur could earn an active roster spot with a big showing in camp. He’s capable of spending some time in center and has traditionally performed better against southpaws, making him a possible match to complement presumptive Phillies center fielder Adam Haseley.
Phillies Sign Didi Gregorius
Didi Gregorius and Joe Girardi have officially been reunited. The Phillies announced Friday that they’ve signed Gregorius, the longtime Yankees shortstop, to a one-year contract that will reportedly pay him $14MM before he returns to free agency next winter. Gregorius is represented by Excel Sports Management.
This is the latest noteworthy free-agent strike for general manager Matt Klentak and the Phillies, who signed right-hander Zack Wheeler to a five-year, $118MM contract earlier this offseason. They spent an incredible amount of money on free agents Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen and David Robertson just a year ago, but those moves didn’t lead to the club’s first playoff berth since 2011. The Phillies instead limped to an 81-81 record, which cost manager Gabe Kapler his job. The team has since replaced Kapler with Girardi, who happened to manage Gregorius with the Yankees from 2015-17.
Gregorius, who missed the first few months of the 2019 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery on his right elbow in Oct. 2018, will look to rebuild some free agent stock after a lackluster return effort from that procedure. Upon returning to the Yankees in June, the 29-year-old slashed just .238/.276/.441 with 16 home runs in 344 plate appearances, which prevented the Yankees from issuing him a qualifying offer worth $17.8MM.
However, as hands down the most promising shortstop in this winter’s class of free agents, MLBTR predicted Gregorius would receive a three-year, $42MM contract. While Gregorius did draw interest from at least a few teams, he opted to pursue a short-term deal in hopes of cashing in on a lengthier deal next winter. If his gamble pays off, it’s not hard to envision Gregorius commanding a four-year pact on the 2020-21 open market, although he may have a qualifying offer hanging over his head next time around.
For the Phillies, adding Gregorius should mean pushing 2019 starter Jean Segura to second base to replace the non-tendered Cesar Hernandez. With Gregorius, Segura, first baseman Rhys Hoskins and presumably Scott Kingery at third, the Phillies look to be in good shape in the infield. They’ve shown interest in the two best free-agent third basemen available in Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson, but Rendon is now off the board after agreeing to a seven-year, $245MM deal with the Angels. And between the Gregorius and Wheeler pickups, they’re closing in on the first level of the luxury tax of $208MM, which could make a Donaldson pursuit too pricey (although Kingery could shift to center field if owner John Middleton authorizes the front office to pursue Donaldson and exceed the luxury tax barrier). Before the Gregorius agreement, Jason Martinez of Roster Resource and FanGraphs had the Phillies at just over $186MM in luxury-tax payroll.
As for the Yankees, they’re saying goodbye to an accomplished player who had been a key part of their roster since they acquired him from the Diamondbacks before the 2015 season. But the Yankees do look well-equipped to move on from Gregorius, as they could move star second baseman Gleyber Torres to shortstop and use DJ LeMahieu as their primary second baseman in 2020.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported the agreement. Sweeny Murti of WFAN added the length of the contract, and Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reported the financial terms.