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Latest On Bryce Harper, Manny Machado

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All eyes will be on baseball’s two biggest free agents as the Winter Meetings begin, as both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are poised to land record-setting contracts, each likely to surpass Giancarlo Stanton’s $325MM pact.  With both players vying for such a landmark deal, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required) notes that super-agents Scott Boras and Dan Lozano of the MVP Sports Group will again be squaring off, with Boras representing Harper and Lozano representing Machado.  The two agents have often competed for teams’ dollars and even for clients, including Machado himself — the star infielder was originally represented by Boras before hiring Lozano in 2011.  The thought is that Boras will want Machado to sign first in order to fully establish Harper’s market, and to provide a specific dollar amount to shoot for in order to land Harper the biggest contract ever.  That said, one agent believes “it’s Philly bidding against Philly” in terms of the Harper market, whereas at least six teams may be in on Machado.  Beyond the Phillies, White Sox, and Yankees, Rosenthal reports (via Twitter) that three more teams will meet with Lozano during the Winter Meetings about Machado, as per a rival executive.

Here’s more on the Harper and Machado sweepstakes…

  • While the Yankees have interest in Machado, Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman (Twitter link) hears from a source that the team isn’t willing to pay more than $300MM to sign him.  MLBTR projected a much higher price point for Machado, predicting a $390MM contract for the infielder, even with the spectre of Machado’s “Johnny Hustle” comments and his sometimes-infamous reputation for dirty play hanging over him.  These factors led Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner to recently state that he would require a face-to-face meeting with Machado before the team considered a signing.  If New York isn’t going to move past $300MM, however, one would think the club is simply going to be outbid, perhaps significantly.
  • In regards to Machado, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wonders if the Yankees are hesitant to dive into another hugely expensive long-term contract with a player, just a year removed from their acquisition of Stanton.  The slugger’s numbers in his first season as a Yankees (38 homers and a .266/.343/.509 slash line over 705 PA) were seen as disappointing by Stanton’s standards, leaving Sherman to speculate that the Yankees could have some second thoughts about last winter’s trade with the Marlins.  Perhaps more tellingly, the Yankees haven’t yet shown a willingness to go beyond their comfort zones in bids for free agents this season, as the team wasn’t willing to give either Patrick Corbin or Nathan Eovaldi an extra year in contract offers.
  • Several teams have already met with Harper and his team in private meetings in at a Las Vegas hotel, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale provides a look inside the general format of these gatherings.  Front office representatives (and, sometimes, the owner) from various clubs meet with Harper, his wife Kayla, and Boras to discuss all aspects of a potential signing, first in the form of a lengthy presentation from the team, and then rounds of questions from the Harpers about everything from baseball-related matters to how a club accommodates a player’s family.  The meetings have ranged from five to 10 hours in length, with Boras providing business-related details and one of his famous notebooks of statistics and personal information outlining his clients’ strong points.  In Harper’s case, the notebook is 118 pages long, comparing him to all-time greats in both baseball and other sports (i.e. LeBron James) while also focusing on how acquiring Harper can improve a franchise’s overall value.  “Every GM in baseball wants him because he fills a need, but the owners are pursuing Bryce Harper because they know he can also make them a billion dollars over a period of years,” Boras said.  Interestingly, Boras said that one team owner has been discussing Harper without his GM’s knowledge, a new wrinkle to Boras’ known strategy of bypassing a front office to negotiate directly with ownership about his biggest clients.

Phillies Acquire Jose Alvarez From Angels

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The Phillies announced Thursday that they’ve acquired left-handed reliever Jose Alvarez from the Angels in a straight-up swap for right-handed reliever Luis Garcia.

Jose Alvarez | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

At first glance, the move looks like a head-scratcher for the Halos, as both pitchers come with two years of remaining club control and identical $1.7MM arbitration projections, via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. However, Alvarez turned in a terrific 2018 season, working to a 2.71 ERA with 8.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.43 HR/9 and a 45 percent ground-ball rate in 63 innings out of the Angels’ bullpen. Garcia, meanwhile, struggled to a 6.07 ERA in 46 innings of relief. Of course, he also averaged a hefty 10.0 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 with a 48.4 percent ground-ball rate.

Looking past their ERAs, then, Garcia actually graded out more favorably in some regards. Some fielding-independent metrics were actually more bullish on the 31-year-old Garcia than the 29-year-old Alvarez; Garcia’s 3.64 xFIP was superior to Alvarez’s 3.98 mark, and his 3.46 SIERA also bested Alvarez’s mark of 3.78 by a slight margin. Garcia is also just a year removed from a 2.65 ERA in 71 1/3 innings of work, and there’s plenty to like about his 97.2 mph average fastball and impressive 14.5 percent swinging-strike rate. It’s also worth noting that the Phillies were one of the worst defensive teams in baseball by virtually any measure in 2018, which did Garcia and others no favors.

Luis Garcia | John Geliebter-USA TODAY Sports

Angels fans will surely bristle at the notion of acquiring a reliever whose ERA checked in north of 6.00, of course, but Major League front offices have generally moved away from evaluating players based solely on that rudimentary mark. Admittedly, however, it still registers as a surprise when looking at the Angels’ moves on the whole; the club bid adieu to Blake Parker via non-tender last week and has effectively replaced him with Garcia — all at the expense of its lone experienced left-handed reliever. Adding another lefty (or two) to the relief corps figures to be a priority for GM Billy Eppler and his staff moving forward.

As for the Phillies, they’ll add a pitcher who can’t match Garcia in terms of velocity or swinging-strike rate but was generally dominant against left-handed opponents in 2018. Alvarez held same-handed batters to a putrid .206/.265/.338 slash through 147 plate appearances in 2018 and will give the Phils a lefty to pair with fellow recent acquisition James Pazos and longtime Philadelphia southpaw Adam Morgan.

Alvarez, in essence, will step into the role that would have been filled by fellow lefty Luis Avilan had he not been non-tendered last week — and he’ll do so with a projected arbitration salary that checks in $1.4MM south of the $3.1MM that Avilan was projected to earn.

Mets, Others Involved In J.T. Realmuto Market

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TODAY: The Mets are “resistant” on including Rosario in a deal, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). It seems the Marlins have at least some level of interest, unsurprisingly, in Nimmo, Conforto, and Rosario.

All things considered, it does not appear at present as if the sides have settled upon a clear potential deal structure. There could well be other moving parts to getting something done. After all, the Mets would need to fill in for any departing MLB assets while the Marlins could conceivably involve a third team to spin off any acquired MLB pieces.

YESTERDAY, 8:32pm: The Mets have spoken to the Marlins and are at least considering the possibility of including Nimmo as a centerpiece in a Realmuto deal, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. That said, Sherman cautions that there’s no deal close and that the Marlins are still in talks with multiple other clubs.

However, whether that would be enough for the Mets remains to be seen. Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM tweets that the Marlins don’t view Nimmo as a potential Realmuto centerpiece and would prefer Rosario or Conforto to headline a package of young players instead. That’s at least somewhat curious, given the fact that Conforto has only one more season of club control remaining than Realmuto.

6:55pm: Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets that it’s unlikely the Mets would include Conforto in a trade for Realmuto.

5:35pm: Trade chatter surrounding J.T. Realmuto will persist throughout the offseason following the definitive declaration that he won’t be signing an extension with the Marlins. While the Marlins reportedly have a preference to trade Realmuto outside of the division, Andy Martino of SNY writes that the Mets are looking into Realmuto now that they officially have Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz on board. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, in fact, reports that the Mets reached out on Realmuto earlier today and are being “aggressive” in their pursuit (Twitter links).

Newsday’s Tim Healey tweets that the belief is that the Mets would have to include at least one young Major Leaguer in order to pry Realmuto loose from Miami, and Rosenthal suggests the same. (The Mets subtracted a pair of high-end prospects from its system when trading outfielder Jarred Kelenic and right-hander Justin Dunn to Seattle in the Cano/Diaz swap.) Martino speculated that Amed Rosario’s name could come into play, and Rosenthal adds both Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto as the type of talents that could pique Miami’s interest. Of course, that doesn’t mean that the Mets would have any actual interest in dealing from that promising young trio. More specifically Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that Rosario and Nimmo would be Miami’s top two targets in talks.

The Mets already tendered contracts to both Kevin Plawecki and Travis d’Arnaud, though either could be traded elsewhere or designated for assignment anyway, should the organization land an upgrade in the form of Realmuto. (Speculatively, either could also be sent back to Miami as a short-term stopgap in the absence of Realmuto.)

Elsewhere in the NL East (which, to this point, has been the runaway most active division in terms of offseason activity), Craig Mish of SiriusXM tweets that the Phillies have inquired on Realmuto but are considered to be a long shot. The Phils presently have Jorge Alfaro and Andrew Knapp as in-house catching options now that Wilson Ramos is a free agent, and they’ve been aggressive early this winter, already acquiring Jean Segura and James Pazos from the Mariners.

Mish also suggests that the Braves have inquired on Realmuto, although both David O’Brien of The Athletic and Heyman have tweeted otherwise. O’Brien indicates that he was somewhat bluntly told there’s no validity to the report that Austin Riley and Mike Soroka have come up in discussions, while Heyman reports that the Braves haven’t even engaged on any serious Realmuto talks this winter.  O’Brien further adds that the Braves have shifted their focus to adding a corner outfielder and shoring up the pitching staff (Twitter links).

Looking outside the NL East, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets that the Rockies have checked in on the catcher — although talks between the two sides, to this point, have failed to progress. Colorado would make a perfectly logical landing spot, though, given that none of Chris Iannetta, Tony Wolters or Tom Murphy stands out as an obvious front-line option. The Rockies also have plenty of young pitching — much of it MLB-ready, which would surely be of interest to the Marlins as they continue to build for the future.

It’s worth remembering, too, that the clubs here likely only represent a fraction of the market for Realmuto. Heyman notes that 14 teams have inquired with the Marlins about Realmuto this winter, and while clearly not all of those clubs will be particularly aggressive in their pursuit, the sheer volume underscores how many teams view the All-Star backstop as a potential difference maker. A trade isn’t necessarily guaranteed, but it’s likely that Realmuto’s value is at its apex this winter. The Marlins surely know that their time with Realmuto is limited following comments from agent Jeff Berry and, per Mish, a pair of rejected extension offers of four and five years in length (both at prices that are nowhere near Realmuto’s actual market value).

Yankees, Phillies Turn To Alternatives Following Corbin Agreement

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9:12pm: The Yankees are “hesitant” to pursue a reunion with Eovaldi if his market pushes to four years, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

7:55pm: Neither the Yankees nor the Phillies were willing to go to a sixth year for lefty Patrick Corbin, per reports from Billy Witz of the New York Times and Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter links), and they’re now left to seek out alternatives following Corbin’s reported six-year, $140MM agreement with the Nationals.

For the Yankees, that means shifting their focus to a pair of familiar faces in Nathan Eovaldi and J.A. Happ, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. Witz suggests that the Yankees will also continue looking into Keuchel and further explore the trade market.

Meanwhile, it seems that the Phillies will be giving the Yankees some competition in some of those efforts. MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports that Happ will now become a primary focus for the Phils, while Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that Philadelphia “will consider” Dallas Keuchel. The Phillies are aiming to add one starter to the rotation, Heyman continues, with a left-hander in particular being a preference.

Keuchel, Eovaldi and Happ are the consensus top starters remaining on the market, with the possible exception of Japanese southpaw Yusei Kikuchi, who was posted by the Seibu Lions of Nippon Professional Baseball yesterday. Of the bunch, Keuchel is subject to draft-pick compensation for a new team after rejecting a one-year, $17.9MM qualifying offer from the Astros. Both Happ and Eovaldi would’ve been candidates for qualifying offers had they not been traded midseason, thus rendering them ineligible to receive one.

Soon to turn 31, Keuchel has been a workhorse in the Houston rotation over the past five seasons, pitching to a collective 3.28 ERA with 7.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9 and a whopping 60 percent ground-ball rate that leads all qualified Major League starting pitchers in that time. Keuchel, a two-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glove winner, hasn’t been as dominant since winning the 2015 AL Cy Young Award, but he led the AL in starts last season and has turned in a sub-4.00 ERA in four of the past five seasons.

Eovaldi, 29 in February, returned from Tommy John surgery with a flourish in 2018, raising his free-agent stock more than perhaps any starting pitcher other than the aforementioned Corbin. He’s been most prominently connected to his hometown Astros and the Red Sox as of late — neither of whom figure to be thrilled with the concept of the Yankees making an increased push to sign the flamethrowing righty.

Happ, 36, is reported to have received interest from as many as 10 teams. Because his age suppresses the length of the contract he can reasonably be expected to land, Happ has drawn interest from clubs in all market sizes. The Brewers, Reds, Twins, Angels, Astros, Blue Jays and White Sox are among the clubs that have already been linked to Happ, to say nothing of previous connections to the Phils and Yanks — both of which now figure to increase with Corbin off the board.

Patrick Corbin Signing “Imminent”

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2:40pm: Corbin is evidently nearing agreement, as Morosi tweets that a signing is “imminent.” He’s said to be lining up a six-year deal, though it’s not yet clear with what team.

With the Yankees only putting five years on the table, it seems they aren’t going to get the lefty, Morosi adds on Twitter.

10:55am: There’s still no marked movement on the bidding for free agent lefty Patrick Corbin, but we’re continuing to see indications that the action is building to a crescendo. With interest spiking in the top open-market hurler, Bob Nightengale of USA Today cites multiple league sources for the proposition that Corbin is expected to meet or exceed the contract value that Yu Darvish achieved last winter (Twitter link).

That level of payday is just what MLBTR predicted in ranking Corbin as the third-best free agent on this year’s market. At the time, that seemed a rather aggressive estimation of his value. More recently, though, some have wondered whether Corbin might not drive well past the Darvish deal (six years, $126MM).

How high the bidding will go remains to be seen. Indeed, it’s not yet fully clear whether Corbin will actually top Darvish, even if he can. Nightengale suggests it’s possible that Corbin might be asked to “take a discount” to end up with the Yankees, who could be looking to get the life-long fan of the Bronx Bombers to sign for less.

The precise strategy of the Yankees isn’t entirely clear; certainly, the organization could boost its bid if Corbin demands it and there’s a bigger offer on the table. Regardless, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand notes on Twitter that the Yankees are still locked in on Corbin, though he reminds that they’ve also engaged in secondary targets. That more or less mirrors what GM Brian Cashman stated on the record last night.

If Corbin currently sits atop the New York priority list, it seems the same is true of the Phillies, as Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer tweets. Indeed, some “rivals speculate” that the Phillies are the favorite, Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets, though perhaps that can be said of most any of the team’s free agent targets this winter given its ample spending capacity and clear imperative to win. As Nightengale adds on Twitter, the Phillies seem to have made it clear to Corbin that they’ll top the rest of the market to get him.

Meanwhile, Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo offered plenty of his own indications of strong interest in Corbin, as MLB.com’s Jamal Collier was among those to report. “He’s a guy that obviously we’re interested in and would fit nicely on this team,” says Rizzo, who made clear that the club still has a somewhat traditional view of the value of rotation assets. “Starting pitching is king,” Rizzo says, leaving little doubt that the Nats are prime players for Corbin and other top arms.

Latest On Bryce Harper

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TODAY: Johnson has denied any recent meetings with Harper, leading to a significantly revised Yahoo report. It’s not entirely clear from the current version of the story whether the Dodgers have or will send a contingent to meet with Harper at all.

YESTERDAY: The Dodgers have held a sit-down with free agent superstar Bryce Harper, according to a report from Tim Brown and Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. It’s a must-read update on the still-developing market for one of the winter’s marquee free agents.

Of particular note, the Los Angeles behemoth has now made a notable foray into the Harper market — a possibility that was never quite clear but always tantalized. Minority owner and NBA legend Magic Johnson led a delegation to Harper’s home town of Las Vegas, suggesting at a minimum that pursuing Harper is a serious consideration for an organization that has not generally chased top free agents under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman.

At the outset of the offseason, we did predict that Harper would land with the Dodgers, and score a massive contract in the process. But that was anything but a high-probability prediction, as the outfielder’s market was then and remains difficult to assess in the usual manner. Harper, after all, is a rather unique commodity. Like fellow free agent Manny Machado, he’s an established star who only recently turned 26 years of age. Both players also have their blemishes, to be sure, but the talent ceilings and volume of potentially prime seasons are, in both cases, immense.

Thus it is that, as the Yahoo duo report, “upward of a dozen” organizations across the league have or likely will follow Magic in a Vegas road trip to chat with Harper. The Yankees are among them, despite a litany of reports suggesting they won’t pursue this particular opportunity, while the Phillies are an unsurprising club in the market as well.

We’ve heard plenty about the White Sox to date, of course, but the seriousness of their pursuit has been tough to gauge. According to Yahoo, the South Siders have dispatched Jim Thome and others to help woo Harper to a rebuilding situation. Other possibilities abound, with the Cubs, Padres, Astros, and Cardinals all tabbed as teams with at least speculative potential interest. (That’s all in addition to the incumbent Nats, of course.)

The report cautions that these early visits don’t necessarily signal an all-in commitment to chase the market on Harper. Certainly, it’s worth bearing in mind that the teams are still assessing their respective levels of interest. Still, it seems promising for Harper that he has drawn this much focus from nearly half the teams in baseball — particularly given that they’re all already aware that he reportedly turned down a $300MM offer to stay in DC.

There was never any doubt, of course, that he’d be heavily pursued. But there are relatively few big-spending teams with clear-cut needs in the corner outfield, making it tough to guess at interest based upon team need and even historical spending patterns. It seems, though, that there are at least quite a few teams that are willing to assign significant resources to assess whether Harper is enough of an asset, on and off the field, to warrant not only an enormous outlay but also some roster maneuvering to fit.

Mets Brass On Cano/Diaz Trade, Next Steps

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The Mets held a fascinating press conference today to introduce recent acquisitions Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz — players who the organization clearly sees as major pieces of the club’s next winning roster. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo was among the reporters to cover the festivities; all links below are to his Twitter feed unless otherwise noted.

New Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen offered soaring thoughts on the occasion of his first major move with the club. “I stated that this organization intended to be relentless and fearless in the pursuit of greatness,” he said. “This trade should be a signal to our fans that words alone will not define our franchise.”

Getting a deal done was spurred not only by the team’s own direct interest, but also by a desire to land Diaz before the Phillies could do so. COO Jeff Wilpon indicated the presence of the division rivals in the bidding helped drive the talks. The Phillies ultimately balked at including their best young pitching in a deal for Diaz, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link). Ultimately, they struck a separate deal for shortstop Jean Segura.

Van Wagenen explained further that an “all-consuming” push over the past ten days or so led to a deal. Though Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto had said he was “inclined to hold onto Diaz” and “told us no a number of times,” the Mets “kept staying on it, kept trying to be aggressive on it” and ultimately made a match after batting around numerous deal possibilities.

Unsurprisingly, the addition of an aging but still-excellent player in Cano and a top-shelf young closer in Diaz seem to portend yet more acquisitions. As Van Wagenen put it, the Mets “did not make this move to be our last move.” Wilpon went into further detail, offering up some internal perspective on the club’s status. The team’s own analytical staff see this move as taking the club from an 83 to 84 win team to one that is a true-talent, upper-eighties outfit. With “a couple more things,” he suggested, “maybe we can be 90-plus.”

As ever, payroll remains a factor. This deal is cash-neutral for the 2019 season, though it does add future dollars. And as ever, there’s an opportunity cost — in this case, long-term spending capacity and the loss of young talent. But the Mets evidently feel they can continue to boost their competitiveness.

Wilpon chatted about the Mets’ financials, explaining that the ongoing efforts to work out a settlement on the insurance coverage for David Wright will hopefully soon result in a deal. Even if the funds won’t come in a lump sum, “some of that will go back to payroll.” Meanwhile, though the coverage on outfielder Yoenis Cespedes is said to be a “little bit less” than the 75% coverage the Mets have on Wright’s salary, there could be some funds flowing back for his absence as well.

It’s still not clear how high the Mets will go in an Opening Day payroll. The club has yet to crack the $155MM barrier to start a season, though even that mark would seem to leave room to spend. Of course, there are still quite a few obvious needs on the roster — as we covered in breaking down the Mets’ offseason outlook. Most notably, the club has a variety of bullpen openings to account for and could still pursue upgrades in the outfield, behind the dish, and perhaps also in the infield mix.

One possibility that has popped up on the rumor mill in recent weeks is a trade involving starter Noah Syndergaard, presumably with intentions of adding multiple youthful assets who could join a still-developing core. The early explorations evidently have not shown promise of resulting in a deal, however, as the Mets now say they are strongly leaning against moving Thor. Per Van Wagenen, only under  “very special circumstances” would he “even consider” trading a pitcher who, at his best, is among the top hurlers in all of baseball.

Needless to say, there’s tons to digest from this presser. Taken in conjunction with the trade itself, it sets up the Mets for a fascinating upcoming trip to Vegas for the Winter Meetings.

Latest On Patrick Corbin

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  • Even as Eovaldi draws plenty of interest it seems the early market will be driven by Patrick Corbin, the excellent lefty who just completed a tour of several big-spending east-coast clubs. The Nationals, Yankees, and Phillies still profile as the likeliest landing spots, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets, though he notes that other teams are still in the mix. A decision, in any event, still seems to come sooner than later. Yankees GM Brian Cashman made clear that his organization is a serious pursuer of a hurler with deep ties to the region in an interview this evening with Jack Curry of the YES Network (write-up via MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch). “We’re doing everything in our power to put ourselves in position to be a legitimate consideration,” says Cashman, who calls Corbin “a special talent.” This sort of public endorsement obviously won’t decide the matter, but it surely indicates that the Yankees are engaged in a full press.

Phillies, Mariners Announce Trade Involving Jean Segura, Carlos Santana, J.P. Crawford

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The Phillies and Mariners have struck a deal that sends shortstop Jean Segura to Philadelphia along with relievers Juan Nicasio and James Pazos. On the other end of the swap, the Seattle organization will receive veteran first baseman Carlos Santana and young infielder J.P. Crawford.

Money is a major aspect of this deal, but it seems the clubs were able to work things out by swapping contracts rather than paying down portions of any deals. Segura will receive a $1MM bonus for waiving his no-trade clause. It seems the M’s will pay, though that’s not fully clear. Segura will keep his NTC rights moving forward in Philly.

Seattle has pulled off a series of significant moves this winter, in service of what the club hopes will be a relatively quick reboot. Cost savings aren’t the only relevant pursuit, but it’s clearly important. In a way, then, this trade feels like a bit of a surprise at first glance.

After all, Segura is not only a high-quality player, his contract rights are generally appealing. He doesn’t turn 29 until March, and he is controlled through the 2022 season on a contract that will pay him $58MM over those four seasons (including a $1MM buyout of a $17MM club option for 2023). With Nicasio’s $9MM salary for 2019 added in, there’ll be $67MM in total heading to the Philly books.

On the other side, the M’s are taking back $35MM owed to Santana over the next two seasons (including the $500K buyout of his 2021 option, which is priced at $17.5MM). Since the other two players in the deal are not yet eligible for arbitration, the Seattle ledger will be left about $32MM lighter at the end of the day.

Beyond the financial savings, which are significant but nevertheless disappointing given Segura’s performance, the Mariners are adding an intriguing replacement at shortstop. Crawford has been a consensus top-16 prospect in the sport (as per Baseball America and Baseball America) in each of the last three seasons, though his messy, injury-plagued 2018 season has certainly dimmed his stock.

Crawford, the former 16th overall pick, first reached Triple-A in 2016. He scuffled at the plate in his first exposure, but came into his power in the following season and seemed primed for a breakthrough. Unfortunately, forearm and hand injuries intervened, limiting Crawford’s time. It’s notable, too, that he went down on strikes in 26.8% of his plate appearances while walking at a good-but-not-great 9.4% rate. Plate discipline, after all, is his calling card. On the other hand, his .214/.319/.393 slash still worked out to a 96 wRC+ and there’s still surely room to grow. Crawford, after all, will not turn 24 until January.

Even while recognizing the very real value that still lies in the rights to Crawford, it’s hard to escape the sense that this wasn’t a deal the Mariners really loved making. While there was some interest from other quarters in Segura — the Yankees reportedly took a look, while the Padres and Mariners discussed a potential blockbuster that would’ve sent Segura and Mike Leake to San Diego in exchange for Wil Myers — it seems it never reached a boiling point. It’s certainly true, as Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs wrote tonight, that there was a thin market at shortstop. And some whispers of clubhouse issues (including a scrap with Dee Gordon) probably didn’t help. As Dipoto explained tonight: “If the market were higher, we would have made a higher level trade.”

There’s certainly some value in Santana, too, despite his tepid output in 2018. It was just last winter, after all, that the market made him something of an exception for its newfound dislike of lumbering sluggers. The switch-hitter’s plate discipline remains top-notch, and he not only handles first base well but showed he can give some innings at the hot corner.

If you look at it long enough, you can begin to wonder why it is the Phillies were interested in giving up Santana after adding him only one year back. Surely, the team can see that his .231 batting average on balls in play is likely to rise and that he’s more or less the same player they targeted. In this case, though, GM Matt Klentak and co. were faced with some incongruous roster occupants and a clear mandate to improve.

Last year’s experiments provided information, but perhaps not of the kind the Phils were hoping for. Rhys Hoskins failed to make the transition from first base to the corner outfield, creating a dilemma. Meanwhile, Crawford wasn’t quite ready to become a regular at short; neither was Scott Kingery.

This swap, then, suits a variety of needs in Philadelphia. Finding a reasonable way to move on from Santana was clearly necessary. Hoskins can step back in at first base while leaving a corner outfield spot open for some other impactful hitter who can handle the position defensively.

The addition of Segura, though, was surely the driving force. He has become a highly productive offensive player, with a .308/.353/.449 slash line to go with 41 homers and 75 steals over the last three seasons. While Segura is highly reliant on contact, he’s also quite good at avoiding strikeouts (personal-low 10.9% K rate in 2018) and getting aboard when he puts the ball in play (.320 lifetime BABIP). Perhaps he won’t revisit his high-water power point (twenty long balls and a .181 ISO in 2016), but Segura seems likely to deliver above-average work with the bat for much of the remainder of his deal.

It’s not as if Segura is a stretch to play at shortstop, either. He has mostly graded in range of average over the years, with DRS generally valuing him as a slight plus and UZR shading the other way. Regardless, he can handle the job. Segura hasn’t scored as well for his overall baserunning in recent years, but obviously can still run and should probably be viewed as a positive performer in that regard as well.

Some reports had indicated that just-acquired Mariners right-hander Anthony Swarzak was to be passed along in the swap. Instead, it’s Nicasio, who has a similar salary to that of Swarzak and functions in the same essential capacity in this trade. Actually, the 32-year-old Nicasio looks to be one of the most interesting buy-low relief candidates out there on the heels of a bizarre 2018 campaign. He was tagged for six earned per nine over 42 frames, but also posted a pristine combination of 11.4 K/9 and 1.1 BB/9. Clearly, a .402 BABIP and 58.1% strand rate played a big role in the struggles.

Meanwhile, Pazos could be a cost-effective boon to the Philadelphia relief corps, having pitched to a 3.39 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 across 103 2/3 innings for the Mariners from 2017-18. He’s not yet arbitration-eligible and can be controlled through the 2022 season. As Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times notes on Twitter, Pazos exhibited some worrisome trends late in the year, with some velocity loss and “mechanical issues.” Still, it’s an easy chance for the Phillies to take on a potentially quality reliever who’ll still earn the league minimum.

For both organizations, then, this was quite a notable swap — and one that could set the stage for further dealing.

On the Phillies’ side, the club has found an answer at short, but perhaps not in the way some anticipated entering the winter. Manny Machado now looks to be a potential target to line up at third base, which isn’t his preferred position, as Klentak has made clear that the club sees Segura as its shortstop. Having made a significant upgrade without adding much salary (and even while resolving the Santana issue), the Phils also now still seem to have ample flexibility to work with in exploring further major acquisitions.

Meanwhile, Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto has now moved three more established players after already shipping out James Paxton, Mike Zunino, Alex Colome, Robinson Cano, and Edwin Diaz in less than four weeks’ time. Mike Leake and Kyle Seager are also being shopped. And perhaps the team’s most recently added veterans shouldn’t be ruled out, either, with Santana joining Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak as pieces that could be moved if the M’s see a chance to add talent and/or save further coin. It’ll be most interesting to see whether any further controllable talent — most notably, Mitch Haniger and Marco Gonzales — could be on the move this winter.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that a deal was nearing (Twitter link). USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted further detail, as did Rosenthal (Twitter links). Rosenthal (in a tweet) and colleague Jayson Stark (on Twitter) had details on Segura’s no-trade rights.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Phillies Notes: Realmuto, Machado

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  • In regards to Realmuto, the Mets and Phillies may not be realistic contenders for the catcher’s services, as the New York Post’s Joel Sherman hears from an official with the Nationals or Braves that “Miami is not trading him in the division.”  It had previously been surmised that the Marlins’ huge asking price in a Realmuto trade was what turned D.C. and Atlanta to alternate catching solutions (i.e. Gomes, Kurt Suzuki, and Brian McCann), though it stands to reason that the Marlins could’ve wanted a particularly big premium in order to send Realmuto elsewhere in the NL West.
  • Also from Sherman’s piece, he is “surprised how many executives and agents I speak to feel” Bryce Harper will re-sign with the Nationals and Manny Machado will sign with the Phillies.  The Machado/Philadelphia connection is no surprise (45.8% of readers in the MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest chose Machado to the Phillies), though there has much less speculation about the possibility of Harper staying put.  The general consensus has been that the Nats would go forward with an outfield mix of Juan Soto, Adam Eaton, and Victor Robles, and that they would recoup the draft pick compensation owed to them via the qualifying offer once Harper signed elsewhere.  On the flip side, only a few teams would fit as potential candidates for Harper given his $400+ asking price, and the Nats do have a long history of handing out big money to Scott Boras clients.

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