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David Robertson Dicusses His Free Agency

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David Robertson decided to act as his own agent while jumping into free agency this winter, eventually landing a two-year, $23MM deal from the Phillies (plus a $12MM club option for 2021).  While the final result was successful, Robertson told Philly.com’s Scott Lauber that he had a few nagging doubts once other relievers came off the board and he was still unsigned as the calendar turned to 2019.  “That was probably one of the times during the process when I kind of thought, ’Am I doing the right thing?’ ” Robertson said. “But I tried to stay calm and level-headed and see the bigger picture and know that I have a good set of skills, that the right teams I had spoken to were interested, and it was just a matter of figuring it out and getting an actual deal done.”  The self-representation stance also created an interesting dynamic on the other side of the negotiating table, as Phillies GM Matt Klentak admitted “when you’re talking directly to a player about contracts, sometimes I found myself being a little more guarded with what I would say than I might be with an agent.”

  • Mike Moustakas was hoping to return to the Brewers, and the third baseman reportedly turned down a multi-year offer from another team, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets.  Moustakas and the Brew Crew agreed to a one-year, $10MM deal today that includes a mutual option for 2020, providing at least a chance at a longer-term stay in Milwaukee for the third baseman, though mutual options are rarely exercised.  The Angels, Phillies, and Padres were all known to have at least checked in about Moustakas at various points this offseason, though The Athletic’s Dennis Lin notes that San Diego’s interest was “tempered.”

Phillies In Lead For Bryce Harper

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7:00PM: Harper’s market is still “evolving,” as Heyman puts it in his latest tweet.  The Phillies are still seen as the likeliest team to land Harper, though the outfielder has received several long-term deals with an average annual value of more than $30MM per season.

6:01PM: There is no deal yet, though according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link), Harper “will ultimately receive” a larger contract than the ten-year, $300MM offer he received from the Nationals before free agency began.

1:15PM: As was the case a month ago, the Phillies are the favorites to sign free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. But Harper’s market has “intensified,” according to Heyman, who unsurprisingly notes he’ll eventually sign a long-term contract.

Philadelphia met with Harper back on Jan. 10, though he and fellow free-agent superstar/Phillies target Manny Machado have shockingly remained on the market since then. Both the Giants and Padres have since joined the race for Harper, who, as of two weeks ago, had drawn interest from “at least” eight teams, Heyman reported. Only five suitors have been identified, though, with Harper’s career-long club – the Nationals – accompanying the Phillies, Giants, Padres and White Sox. The Yankees and Mets are two teams that can be ruled out, Andy Martino of SNY tweets.

Harper entered the offseason seeking a contract worth upward of $300MM – a figure that he could still match or exceed, despite his unexpectedly long stay on the market. And the Phillies are arguably in better position than anyone else to bid an extravagant amount for Harper, as they came into the winter expecting to spend “stupid” money, according to owner John Middleton. The big-market team has been aggressive in improving its roster to this point, having added J.T. Realmuto, Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen and David Robertson, but it’s not spending an eyebrow-raising sum on any of those players. Plus, despite those upgrades, the Phillies still aren’t in great shape in the outfield, with Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams, Roman Quinn and Aaron Altherr serving as their best options besides McCutchen. The 26-year-old Harper blows that group out of the water, needless to say, and his presence would significantly boost the Phillies’ chances of breaking their seven-season playoff drought in 2019.

Should Harper head to Philly, it would remove a prime suitor for Machado, as the club’s only willing to sign one of the two. Without the Phillies in the mix, Machado would seemingly be left to choose between the Padres and White Sox, who have courted him, though it’s possible a previous suitor such as the Yankees or a mystery team could involve themselves in the race to sign him.

Phillies "Seem Cool" On Mike Moustakas, Other Non-Machado 3Bs

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  • Philadelphia has been chasing free agent Manny Machado for months, but if the team doesn’t sign him, it appears it’ll go forward with Maikel Franco and Scott Kingery at third base. The Phillies “seem cool” on the possibility of signing Mike Moustakas or another non-Machado free agent to man the position, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com writes. The club’s of the belief that Franco and Kingery are “two really good options,” according to general manager Matt Klentak. The 26-year-old Franco wasn’t much different offensively than Moustakas in 2018, though the latter trumped the former as a defender. Kingery had a disastrous rookie season at the plate, but the Phillies remain high on the 24-year-old, whom they signed to a long-term deal last March before he ever accrued a major league at-bat.

Odubel Herrera To Compete For Starting Job

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  • Manager Gabe Kapler claims the Phillies aren’t guaranteeing a No. 1 job to center fielder Odubel Herrera, Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. Herrera’s a four-year starter in Philly who still has three guaranteed seasons left on the $30.5MM extension he signed in 2016, but he turned in an underwhelming showing in 2018. He’ll now compete for a place in center and right this spring with Roman Quinn, Nick Williams and Aaron Altherr, according to Kapler. Although, if the Phillies add superstar right fielder Bryce Harper in free agency, it’ll give the Herrera-Quinn-Williams-Altherr quartet one fewer position to fight over. Herrera, for his part, has worked hard in recent months to get himself into better shape, as Lauber details, and Kapler expects the 27-year-old to benefit from the Phillies’ hiring of first base/outfield/baserunning coach Paco Figueroa.

Realmuto, Phillies Have Not Discussed Extension

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Newly acquired catcher J.T. Realmuto and the Phillies have yet to discuss a contract extension, agent Jeff Berry said at this week’s news conference to introduce Realmuto to his new team (link via Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia). That doesn’t mean that the two sides won’t eventually sit down and try to work out a long-term arrangement, but Realmuto said at his introduction that he’s scarcely even had time to think about contractual matters on the heels of such a hectic week. “I’ve heard nothing but amazing things,” Realmuto said of the Phillies organization, “so we’ll see about that in the future.” The Phillies control the All-Star for another two seasons.

Phillies Health Notes: Arrieta, Eickhoff

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  • Phillies starter Jake Arrieta underwent a meniscus procedure on his left knee about a month back, manager Gabe Kapler told reporters including Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (Twitter link). The surgery, which addressed an injury that occurred during the offseason, does not appear to be a major concern, with Kapler saying the expectation is for Arrieta to be ready for the start of the season. Still, the hope was that the veteran righty, who’ll soon turn 33, would be at full health and focused on finding improvements after his ERA rose for the third-straight season.
  • Meanwhile, the Phillies are holding their collective breath on fellow righty Jerad Eickhoff. As Kapler explains, and Lauber tweets, Eickhoff has again experienced symptoms relating to the carpal tunnel issues that led to surgery last season. While another procedure isn’t on the table at present, it’s another suboptimal situation. The 28-year-old has shown quite a bit of talent, but is looking to bounce back after missing almost all of the 2018 campaign.

Phillies Extend Aaron Nola

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The Phillies have officially reached a long-term deal with star righty Aaron Nola. The contract, which forestalls an arbitration hearing and expands the team’s control rights over its best pitcher, is said to be a four-year, $45MM deal that includes a club option.

Nola, a client of Paragon Sports, will receive a $2MM signing bonus and $4MM salary for the coming season. He’ll then earn successive salaries of $8MM, $11.75MM, and $15MM. The 2023 option is valued at $16MM and includes a $4.25MM buyout. Nola’s 2022 salary and 2023 option value will reportedly each increase by $1MM for each Cy Young win he secures, by $500K for a second-place finish and by $250K for finishing third through fifth in Cy Young voting.

Ultimately, then, the Phillies can control five future seasons of Nola, including 2019, at a total outlay of just $56.75MM (or perhaps a bit more, depending on Cy Young finishes). Nola gives up two would-be free agent campaigns in the deal. He had been nearing a hearing to determine his first-year arbitration salary, with his side filing at $6.7MM and the club countering at $4.5MM.

Now 25, Nola originally came to the Phillies organization as the seventh overall pick of the 2014 draft. He has rewarded the club handsomely for that selection, having already thrown 569 innings of 3.35 ERA ball at the game’s highest level while maintaining 9.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 along with a 50.9% groundball rate.

Those shiny peripherals have been there from the outset for Nola, who has been a darling of ERA estimators ever since he took a big league mound. For his career to date, Nola is credited with a 3.24 FIP, 3.29 xFIP, and 3.48 SIERA.

In a sense, then, Nola’s eye-popping 2018 season was more a continuation than a turning point. But his 212 1/3-inning effort was still clearly a coming-out party, as Nola showed he could sustain excellence over a big workload while pitching meaningful innings. His resulting 2.37 ERA would have made him a Cy Young winner in some campaigns, though he settled for a still-impressive third-place finish after Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer both turned in monster seasons.

[RELATED: MLBTR Extension Tracker]

The obvious comp for this extension is the deal reached two years ago between the Cardinals and Carlos Martinez. That agreement included more money, but a lengthier term, for another high-quality, 25-year-old hurler who was nearing a first arbitration hearing. Martinez took home a $51MM guarantee over five years, while giving the Cards successive $17MM and $18MM options with a cumulative $1MM buyout, meaning his deal would top out at seven seasons and $85MM.

Nola’s camp probably prefers his deal to Martinez’s, which set a high-water mark for arb1 pitcher extensions but did give away two additional seasons of control. Still, it’s a bit of a surprise to see that Nola did not break new ground in earnings, particularly since he secured a significant initial draft bonus in addition to already having one season of arb salary (nearly) in hand. Even if he ended up losing the hearing and suffering a major injury this spring, he’d profile as an easy 2020 tender candidate. The recent experience of Garrett Richards — who has thrown just 138 2/3 innings over the past three seasons and is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, yet earned over $20MM in his final three arb years and then signed for $15.5MM in free agency — shows that teams will pay big money to hang onto the upside of top arms. Nola’s downside was limited, even in the event of a catastrophic injury. In terms of upside scenarios, the tepid free agent market is perhaps a factor, but team squeamishness toward long-term deals did not prevent Patrick Corbin from landing six years and $140MM — due in no small part to the fact that he hit the open market at 29 years of age.

If the option is indeed picked up, Nola will stand to reach free agency in advance of his age-31 campaign. He’d certainly still have ample earning capacity at that point, though leaving two prospective free agent campaigns in the hands of the Phils unquestionably removes some of the highest-upside contract scenarios. Of course, chasing the biggest imaginable guarantee certainly isn’t the top priority for every player, and it’s not hard to see how this contract serves Nola’s own interests as well — particularly since he did deal with a worrying forearm strain not long ago.

Whatever one thinks of the deal from the player’s perspective, it seems to be an easy risk for the big-budget Phillies to take. The Martinez experience does show some of the downside risks at play, as his injuries would have tamped down his arb earnings and do cloud his future, though he’s still a talented and youthful pitcher with ample promise. Locking up Nola comes with its own risks, but loads of upside as well.

It’s notable in this case that the sides had such a wide spread in their arb filing numbers. That had set up an important hearing decision, with Nola seeking to step in not far below Dallas Keuchel’s record $7.25MM salary and the Phils defending something closer to the longstanding ceiling for first-time eligible pitchers (the 2006 Dontrelle Willis salary of $4.35MM). MLBTR projected a $6.6MM salary for Nola, though the team obviously felt comfortable with its aggressively low stance and the panel would have been forced to pick one of the two filing numbers. That left plenty of risk for Nola; the $2.2MM gap, after all, would also have been reflected in his prospective arb2 and arb3 salaries.

On the team’s side, though, the deal forecloses the greater earning situation. Had Nola landed the $6.7MM he asked for, and then turned in two more seasons in range of his career norms, he easily could have cleared $30MM in arbitration earnings and might well have done quite a bit more than that. deGrom’s other-worldly campaign scored him a record-setting $9.6MM year-over-year raise; expecting anything on that order would be foolish, of course, but that number shows the magnitude of potential earnings.

Of greater importance than controlling Nola’s arbitration earnings is the acquisition of control rights over two more seasons, his age-29 and age-30 campaigns. Had Nola hit the open market after his arb time ran out, he might well have commanded a huge and lengthy deal — with any acquiring team interested especially in capturing his remaining prime years. Doing a contract now allows the Phillies to hang onto those seasons for a relatively low price and without any need to promise Nola money well into his thirties.

Ken Rosenthal and Matt Gelb of The Athletic first reported the deal (Twitter link). Jeff Passan of ESPN.com tweeted the contract breakdown. The Athletic’s Jayson Stark reported the contract’s escalator clauses.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Grading The J.T. Realmuto Trade

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After several months of nonstop rumors centering on J.T. Realmuto, the Marlins finally found an offer to their liking for the superstar catcher Thursday, when they dealt him to the NL East rival Phillies. Entering the offseason, it seemed inevitable the rebuilding Marlins would part with Realmuto, who made it clear on multiple occasions going back to last winter that he was uninterested in signing an extension with the club.

At times this offseason, Realmuto drew interest from nearly half the league (14 teams), and with such a vast market for his services, Miami spent the past few months holding out for a Godfather offer from one of those clubs. In the end, the Marlins accepted a three-player return consisting of major league catcher Jorge Alfaro, who will immediately replace Realmuto in their starting lineup, two pitching prospects (right-hander Sixto Sanchez and lefty Will Stewart) and $250K in international slot money.

For the Phillies, the Realmuto acquisition is the latest win-now move in an offseason packed with them. Coming off their seventh straight non-playoff season and sixth consecutive sub-.500 campaign, the Phillies are aiming to push for a playoff spot in 2019 with newcomers Realmuto, Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen, David Robertson and possibly Bryce Harper or Manny Machado helping lead the way. And Realmuto – who was the undisputed premier catcher in the game last year – will help their cause beyond the upcoming campaign, as he’s controllable through 2020.

For the Marlins, the Realmuto trade is the latest win-later move dating back to last winter, when the low-budget club traded Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon for futures. In Alfaro, they received a player who showed a penchant for striking out and little ability to walk from 2017-18, his first two seasons of extensive major league action. But Alfaro was nonetheless respectable at the plate during that span, and the cannon-armed 25-year-old is fresh off a season in which he earned raves from defensive metrics. To this point, then, Alfaro has been a satisfactory pro. However, whether Alfaro will continue to serve as an acceptable starter or fall backward could hinge on improving his high-strikeout, low-walk ways, especially considering he won’t keep running a career .405 batting average on balls in play.

While Alfaro’s the only current major leaguer Miami got for Realmuto, Sanchez looks like the biggest prize. Despite the 5-foot-10, 185-pounder’s diminutive stature, each of FanGraphs, Baseball America, MLB.com and ESPN’s Keith Law rank Sanchez between fifth and 35th on their list of the majors’ top prospects. All of those outlets and individuals agree the flamethrowing Sanchez has the upside of a front-line rotation piece, and at 20 years old, he’ll  breathe new life into the Marlins’ farm system. Although Sanchez hasn’t pitched above the High-A level yet, once he gets to Miami, he could emerge as its best starter since the Jose Fernandez era came to a tragic conclusion in 2016.

Stewart, 21, is far less intriguing than Sanchez, with MLB.com ranking him as the Marlins’ No. 25 prospect. Whereas Sanchez is a potential No. 1 starter who possesses electrifying velocity, MLB.com regards Stewart as a possible back-end type whose velocity is “average.” To Stewart’s credit, though, he did post tremendous results last year at the Single-A level, where he logged a 2.06 ERA with 7.13 K/9, 1.66 BB/9 and a 62.1 percent groundball rate, mimicking the best version of Dallas Keuchel in that regard.

With Alfaro, Sanchez, Stewart and a bit more international spending room in tow, there’s plenty for Miami to dream on going forward. The Phillies, meanwhile, made a substantial near-term upgrade behind the plate, albeit one that cost them their previous No. 1 prospect and another promising hurler. In your estimation, how did the two teams fare in this swap? Cast your votes below…

(Phillies poll link for app users; Marlins poll link for app users)

Latest On Phillies, Mike Moustakas

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The Phillies have reportedly shown interest in third baseman Mike Moustakas, who could be a fallback signing if they don’t win the battle for fellow free agent Manny Machado. But now, unless the Phillies miss out on both Machado and free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper, the chances of Moustakas joining the team appear especially slim. If Philadelphia signs Harper over Machado, “it seems unlikely” the club would also add Moustakas, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com writes. Rather, the Phillies would probably be content with a revamped lineup that would include Harper and other high-profile newcomers in J.T. Realmuto, Jean Segura and Andrew McCutchen, Zolecki posits. In that scenario, Maikel Franco – who, at least offensively, was similar to Moustakas in 2018 – and Scott Kingery would be their top options at third base.

Phillies Sign Sean Rodriguez To Minor League Contract

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The Phillies announced Friday that they’ve signed infielder Sean Rodriguez to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training. Rodriguez is represented by MVP Sports.

Rodriguez, 34 in April, has struggled over the past two seasons after turning in a strong showing with the Pirates in 2016. Back in ’16, Rodriguez posted a very strong .270/.349/.510 slash with 18 homers in just 342 plate appearances while playing all over the diamond in Pittsburgh. That led him to sign a two-year contract with the Braves in the offseason, but a shoulder injury suffered in a frightening car accident that winter wiped out the majority of his 2017 season.

Rodriguez was eventually traded back to Pittsburgh, but the struggles he had in Atlanta continued in his return to the Bucs. In all, over the past two seasons, he’s batted a combined .167/.277/.305 through 326 trips to the plate. He’ll give his new organization some depth at second base, third base, shortstop and in the outfield corners.

At present, the Phillies have Maikel Franco, Jean Segura, Cesar Hernandez and Rhys Hoskins lined up around the infield, with Andrew McCutchen and Nick Williams penciled in as the corner outfielders. Those mixes, however, could change — and, perhaps more accurately, will change — as the Phils are widely expected to land either Manny Machado or Bryce Harper before the offseason draws to a close.

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