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Arbitration Breakdown: Aroldis Chapman, Mark Melancon, Kenley Jansen

By Matt Swartz | January 14, 2016 at 8:25pm CDT

Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Mark Melancon

As young fireballers have gotten more opportunity to close, more arbitration cases with few comparables have emerged. Last year, I wrote about such a foursome of closers who had reached second-year arbitration eligibility, and this year I am writing about two of those closers, Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, along with Mark Melancon (who I wrote about separately last year). My arbitration model projects each of these pitchers to get raises between $4MM and $4.85MM this winter, each of which would break Jim Johnson’s current record of a $3.88MM raise for a third-year eligible closer.

Depending on how different statistics are weighed, they all have a compelling case to break this record. Johnson’s $3.88MM raise came after he had a 2.49 ERA and 51 saves in 68 2/3 innings, but Johnson struck out just 41 batters that season. He also only had 72 total saves at that point in his career. Although pre-platform performances generally do not matter outside of first-time-eligible arbitration salaries, one large exception I have found is career saves for closers. It is clear that having a history of being a closer matters, which means that Chapman’s 146 career saves, Melancon’s 121 saves, and Jansen’s 142 saves will all help them have better arbitration cases than Johnson did with 72 career saves.

Melancon also had 51 platform-year saves, matching Johnson’s 51 in his platform year in 2012. Along with his 2.23 ERA in 76 2/3 innings, he should have little trouble topping Johnson’s $3.88MM raise after his 2.49 ERA in 68 2/3 innings. Melancon’s $4.6MM projected raise seems about right.

Although Chapman only had 33 platform-year saves, his 1.63 ERA and aforementioned 146 career saves have led him to get an even bigger projected raise than Melancon. His projection actually slightly exceeded the Kimbrel Rule maximum, which is why he is projected for $12.9MM instead of the $13MM figure that was actually forecast by the model. In spite of the lower platform-year save total, Chapman’s vastly superior ERA and greater bulk of career saves give fair reason to assume he will probably get a bigger raise than Melancon, whose case is a straightforward improvement over Jim Johnson’s 2013 case. Both pitchers are likely to get raises between $4MM and $4.85MM.

Kenley Jansen

Kenley Jansen is projected to land a $4MM raise, which would just barely top Johnson’s record. Jansen had 36 platform-year saves, but 142 career saves, so he has fewer platform-year saves but almost double Johnson’s career saves. His platform-year ERA (2.41) is a bit better than Johnson’s was, although it came in fewer innings (52 1/3 versus 68 2/3) due to the fact that Jansen opened the season on the disabled list with a foot injury. I could see Jansen failing to make the case that he should get a larger raise than Johnson did, although if Melancon or Chapman set new records, he could easily argue that those are more applicable comparisons.

It is difficult to find pitchers other than Johnson that would apply to this trio of players. Jose Valverde had 44 platform-year saves going into his 2009 case, in which he earned $3.3MM, and he did have 142 career saves. However, his ERA was 3.38. A year prior to that, Francisco Rodriguez had a $2.95MM raise with similar numbers, but that case would be even more stale than Valverde’s. Joel Hanrahan got a $2.94MM raise with 36 saves going into his 2013 case, but he only had 96 career saves at that point. Johnson’s case against appears more applicable for all three of these closers.

Each of these three players could set the market for each other, so their raises are likely to be highly interdependent. They are also likely to set the market for future closers, now that more players will presumably reach their third year of arbitration eligibility with a career of closing behind them. I think that my model probably has appropriately guessed their salaries for 2016, but if it is wrong, it will probably be either too high on all three, or too low on all three.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Arbitration Breakdown Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Originals New York Yankees Pittsburgh Pirates Aroldis Chapman Kenley Jansen Mark Melancon

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Gregory Polanco Open To Extension Talks With Pirates

By Jeff Todd | January 14, 2016 at 10:13am CDT

Pirates outfielder Gregory Polanco told reporters today that he’d be open once again to exploring an extension with the club, as MLB.com’s Adam Berry was among those to report (Twitter link). But the Bucs haven’t yet re-visited the subject since it was tabled last April, he added.

Notably, the Pirates and Polanco “came very close” to reaching an accord last year, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports on Twitter (and as Jon Heyman has previously suggested). Biertempfel indicates, though, that the sides are likely to open a new dialogue this spring, as he explains further in a post on the subject.

The new deal yesterday for Dee Gordon — like Polanco, a BHSC client — provides a reminder that extension season is upon us. Spring training has often proved a fertile venue for long-term negotiations, with many deals coming to fruition there — or, sometimes, gaining steam before completion early in the season.

Polanco certainly looks to be a candidate for a multi-year deal after turning in a full and productive big league season last year. He slashed just .256/.320/.381, but turned things on in the second half and also contributed 27 steals. Importantly, too, metrics credit him with big overall value on the bases (5.3 BsR) and with the glove (7.7 UZR, 12 DRS).

While other organizations might prefer to see a lengthier run of production, Pittsburgh has given every indication of being committed to the 24-year-old and would obviously also see some upside in locking him in now, when he’s accumulated only 1.103 years of service.

Prior talks were said to be in the seven or eight-year range, though it’s not clear where things might head now that there’s another season under Polanco’s belt. Certainly, the youngster’s leverage has risen due to his solid campaign and service accumulation, though he also hasn’t yet reached his potentially lofty ceiling.

According to Heyman’s prior reporting, the earlier negotiations did not result in a deal in large part because the parties could not come to an understanding over the option rights that the Pirates would acquire in the contract. While it seemed that a string of three option seasons was a settled element of the package being discussed, both the value (reportedly, $11MM to $13MM) and the timing of the decisions on those options were apparently never resolved.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Gregory Polanco

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NL Central Notes: Epstein, Brewers, Oh, Nicasio

By Steve Adams | January 13, 2016 at 10:35pm CDT

An extension for Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein is “just a matter of time,” team owner Tom Ricketts told reporters, including Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times at a charity event on Wednesday. “We talk all the time, and it comes up,” Ricketts explained, adding that he is “on the same page” with Epstein in that regard. Epstein, of course, is entering the final season of his five-year contract with the Cubs, though given the manner in which Chicago has returned to prominence in the NL Central and the team’s very positive long-term outlook, it’d come as a surprise if the two sides didn’t work out a new contract.

Here’s more from the division…

  • Brewers GM David Stearns wouldn’t disclose whether he will continue the “file and trial” approach to arbitration that the Brewers have employed in recent years, writes MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy. For those unfamiliar, “file and trial” teams cease negotiating one-year deals with players once arbitration figures are exchanged — which will happen this Friday. While some file-and-trial clubs will continue negotiating multi-year deals after arb figures are exchanged, such teams will head to a hearing if no multi-year deal talks are in the works. The Brewers have three arbitration-eligible players — Wily Peralta, Jean Segura and Will Smith. Stearns said he didn’t expect any updates on the trio’s contract status until closer to the exchange deadline.
  • Seung-hwan Oh told reporters in Korea, including Jee-ho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency, that he got the impression all throughout negotiations with the Cardinals that the team felt it needed him, and he’s happy with the deal he received. Oh apologized to his Korean fans for some legal troubles that he incurred which resulted in a 72-game suspension from the KBO, though his actions wouldn’t have warranted any consequences in the United States. Oh was suspended for gambling at an overseas casino in Japan (not on baseball), which is against the KBO’s rules. He’d be forced to miss a half season if he returned to Korea’s top league, though he spoke like a man who doesn’t intend to do so in the near future, saying he hoped to reach the World Series and wouldn’t be satisfied with an ERA over 3.00. Instead, Oh said, he hopes to keep that number closer to 2.00 — a threshold with which he is familiar after a stellar career in both Korea and Japan. Oh said he doesn’t plan to add a new pitch but might rely more heavily on his split-finger. He’s also looking forward to a potential showdown with countryman and new division rival Jung Ho Kang, who was 4-for-13 with a homer off Oh in Korea, per Yoo.
  • Pirates GM Neal Huntington told reporters, including Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, that right-hander Juan Nicasio will be stretched out in Spring Training so that he may serve as depth in a number of roles (Twitter link). Depending on how Nicasio fares, he could be used as rotation depth, a long man or in middle relief, according to Biertempfel. Nicasio was a bit wild but had generally strong results out of the L.A. bullpen last season, working to a 3.86 ERA with 10.0 K/9 against 4.9 BB/9.
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Chicago Cubs Milwaukee Brewers Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals Jean Segura Juan Nicasio Seung-Hwan Oh Theo Epstein Will Smith

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Pirates Release Tony Sanchez

By Steve Adams | January 13, 2016 at 7:51pm CDT

JAN. 13: The Pirates released Sanchez today, according to Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link).

JAN. 6: The Pirates announced that catcher Tony Sanchez has been designated for assignment in order to clear a spot on the roster for right-hander Neftali Feliz, whose reported one-year, $3.9MM contract with the Bucs is now official.

Sanchez, formerly selected with the fourth overall pick in the June draft (2009), received just nine plate appearances in the Majors this past season and has only 155 Major League plate appearances under his belt. In that time, he’s compiled a .259/.303/.378 batting line with four homers. Sanchez has been about average in his 51 big league contests in the eyes of pitch-framing metrics, but he’s also struggled to control the running game, throwing out just 17 percent of attempted base-stealers (5 of 30). Those throwing struggles have also existed at Triple-A in recent years, though his bat at the top minor league level has been better, as he owns a .248/.342/.415 batting line at the Triple-A level across parts of four seasons.

The 27-year-old Sanchez will now be in limbo for up to 10 days as the Pirates explore trade options. Pittsburgh can elect to place him on outright waivers at any time in that window, at which point clubs throughout the league will have the ability to claim him, in the reverse order of last year’s standings.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions Tony Sanchez

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Pirates, Daniel Bard Agree To Minor League Deal

By Steve Adams | January 11, 2016 at 9:45am CDT

The Pirates and right-hander Daniel Bard have agreed to a minor league contract, per reports from MLB.com’s Adam Berry (links to Twitter) and the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review’s Rob Biertempfel (Twitter link).

Bard, now 30 years of age, was once a lights-out setup man for the Red Sox but has pitched just a single inning in the Major Leagues dating back to 2013 due to a landslide of injuries resulting in severe control problems and, ultimately, surgery to relieve throacic outlet syndrome. Bard has been largely absent from baseball since 2013, throwing just 17 1/3 innings across multiple minor league levels, the Puerto Rican Winter League and the aforementioned one inning with Boston.

From 2009-11, Bard was outstanding, however, posting a 2.88 ERA in a considerably more hitter-friendly era than today’s game even a few short years later. That 2.88 ERA, when adjusted for the league and Bard’s home of Fenway Park, resulted in a 154 ERA+, indicating that he was 54 percent better than a league-average pitcher. He averaged 9.7 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in that time to go along with a well-above-average ground-ball rate and a fastball that averaged better than 97 mph.

Bard told Berry that the Pirates’ history of reclamation projects with pitchers made Pittsburgh an appealing destination for him as he seeks to revive his career. “They seem to help out the Pirates a lot, and the Pirates seem to help them out a lot,” said Bard of pitchers that have revitalized their careers with the Bucs. Among the most notable names to have turned their careers around in Pittsburgh in recent years are A.J. Burnett, Francisco Liriano and Edinson Volquez.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions Daniel Bard

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NL Central Notes: Pena, Cardinals, Sanchez, Pirates

By Mark Polishuk | January 10, 2016 at 8:17pm CDT

In a piece for The Players’ Tribune, Cardinals catcher Brayan Pena discusses his dramatic defection from Cuba as a 16-year-old and the emotions behind his return to his home country last year as part of a MLBPA goodwill tour with other Cuban players.  Here’s some news from around the NL Central…

  • The Cardinals should be punished beyond just a fine for the computer breach scandal involving the Astros’ player evaluation database, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan opines.  Even a substantial fine might not be enough of a deterrent for a wealthy team like the Cards, so Passan believes that Major League Baseball needs to take away future draft picks, or funds from the Cardinals’ amateur draft or international signing pools.
  • Tony Sanchez tells Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that he wasn’t surprised when the Pirates designated him for assignment earlier this week.  “I dug my own grave.  When I started having throwing issues, I knew they lost trust in me. And if you can’t trust your catcher, you can’t play him,” Sanchez said.  The catcher was the fourth overall pick of the 2009 draft but has yet to deliver on that promise in the majors; Sanchez has a .259/.303/.378 line over 155 plate appearances since 2013.  As Sanchez noted, he also had trouble throwing out baserunners at the both the big league and Triple-A level.
  • The signing of Neftali Feliz indicates that the Pirates still put a premium on hard-throwing arms, Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes.  The Bucs’ average fastball velocity has increased every season since Neal Huntington took over was GM, culminating in a league-leading 94mph average in 2015.  Feliz is also another investment for the Pirates bullpen, as Sawchik notes that the club is projected to be spending about a quarter of its payroll (roughly $23.7MM) on five relievers.
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Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals Brayan Pena Neftali Feliz Tony Sanchez

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Cafardo’s Latest: Ramirez, Upton, Gallardo, Chen, Ozuna

By | January 10, 2016 at 12:17pm CDT

With the recent Hall of Fame voting out of the way, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe looks at the case for former Red Sox star Manny Ramirez. Obviously, his offensive performance was magnificent, although lousy defense sapped his overall value. With confirmed PED violations after the so-called Steroid Era, voters may find it hard to select Ramirez. He also had a prickly reputation with the phrase “Manny being Manny” coming to represent his often oblivious frame of mind.

Here’s more from Cafardo’s column:

  • The Red Sox could consider signing free agent outfielder Justin Upton. Club president Dave Dombrowski is comfortable with a starting outfield of Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts, and Rusney Castillo, but there’s certainly risk involved with relying upon Bradley and Castillo. Either or both players could conceivably fail to produce at a league average rate. The Sox do have depth in the form of Chris Young, Brock Holt, and possibly Travis Shaw. However, Upton would give them a superstar presence in the middle of the lineup, and he won’t have the same difficulty in adjusting to left field as Hanley Ramirez.
  • Yovani Gallardo may be the next starting pitcher to sign. Scott Kazmir’s three-year, $48MM contract is a potential comparable. The teams involved in his market are hoping for a bargain on a two- or three-year contract, per Cafardo. He sees the Orioles, Blue Jays, Pirates, Royals, and Cubs as the best fits.
  • Fellow free agent starter Wei-Yin Chen has scared some teams away with a five-year, $100MM asking price. The Nationals and Cardinals “have taken a good hard look.” Chen, 30, can point to success in the always difficult AL East as justification for a nine-figure asking price.
  • Ten teams have inquired about Marlins outfielder Marcell Ozuna, but Miami coaches Barry Bonds and Don Mattingly are campaigning to keep Ozuna. They believe they can shape Ozuna into a star player. While owner Jeffrey Loria is said to be the impetus behind the club’s attempts to trade Ozuna, it’s also plausible he would defer to his newly hired, high profile personnel.
  • Some scouts still think there’s something left in Ike Davis’ tank. The Mets’ former top prospect has played for three teams over the last two seasons with exactly zero WAR in 666 plate appearances. Davis will likely sign a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training.
  • The Tigers and Mets are monitoring the market for Yoenis Cespedes. Based on Cafardo’s report, it sounds like both clubs hope to pounce if a strong suitor doesn’t emerge.
  • Meanwhile, Dexter Fowler could end up as a bargain. Cafardo predicts a three-year contract below the $31MM signed by Denard Span. He suggests the Rockies (if they make a trade) and Tigers as possible fits. Personally, I disagree with the valuation on Fowler. Like Span, he has a history as a high OBP, top-of-the-order hitter. The draft pick compensation tied to him is a deterrent, but he’s been much healthier than Span in recent seasons.
  • Talks between Chris Davis and the Orioles may have a drop-dead date. While the Orioles prefer a big left-handed bat, they may dip into the market for Upton or Cespedes. Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez is also a potential fit.
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Colorado Rockies Detroit Tigers Kansas City Royals Miami Marlins New York Mets Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals Toronto Blue Jays Washington Nationals Brock Holt Carlos Gonzalez Chris Davis Chris Young Dexter Fowler Ike Davis Justin Upton Manny Ramirez Marcell Ozuna Mookie Betts Wei-Yin Chen Yoenis Cespedes Yovani Gallardo

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Minor MLB Transactions: 1/9/16

By charliewilmoth | January 9, 2016 at 3:41pm CDT

Here are today’s minor moves from around the league.

  • The Royals have agreed to terms with lefty David Huff on a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite, MLBTR has learned. Huff will receive $1.1MM plus a possible $300K in performance bonuses if he’s in the Majors, and his deal contains opt-outs on May 15 and June 15. Huff appeared briefly with the Dodgers last season, but spent most of the year at Triple-A Oklahoma City, where he posted a 2.20 ERA, 6.8 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9 over 57 1/3 innings. The 31-year-old has a 5.08 ERA, 5.4 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in parts of seven big-league seasons, which he’s split between starting and relieving.
  • The Padres have selected the contract of lefty Ryan Buchter, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets. The Friars had previously signed Buchter to a minor league deal, but now, before he had even pitched an inning for them, they’ve placed him on their 40-man roster. Buchter had an excellent (if somewhat control-challenged) season at Triple-A in 2015, posting a 1.78 ERA, 11.0 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 in 50 2/3 innings of relief for two teams, and he has good velocity and is very tough on lefties. Getting him on a minor league deal looked like a small coup for the Padres, and it’s possible they’re adding him to their 40-man roster in order to avoid losing him, maybe to an opt-out clause or an offer from overseas.
  • The Pirates have released righty Casey Sadler, Matt Eddy of Baseball America tweets. Sadler underwent Tommy John surgery after the 2015 season and was subsequently outrighted. The 25-year-old made one strong start with the Bucs in 2015 and spent the rest of the year at Triple-A Indianapolis, where he posted a 4.56 ERA, 5.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 before getting hurt.
  • The Brewers have announced that they’ve signed lefty Pat Misch to a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite. The 34-year-old Misch appeared in parts of six big-league seasons with the Giants and Mets, but he hasn’t been in the Majors since 2011. He’s had a strange journey since having Tommy John surgery in August 2013, as BA’s John Manuel writes — beginning last winter, he pitched in the Puerto Rican Winter League, then pitched 72 innings in a swingman role with Triple-A New Orleans in the Marlins system (posting a 3.25 ERA, 5.0 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9), then 64 2/3 with Lamigo in the Chinese Professional Baseball League. That stint finished with a Game 7 no-hitter to end the Taiwan Series.
  • The Yankees have signed infielders Donovan Solano and Jonathan Diaz to minor league deals with Spring Training invites, Eddy tweets. Solano, formerly the Marlins’ semi-regular second baseman, did not hit well in 2015 and bounced back and forth between Miami and New Orleans. He has a career .257/.307/.328 batting line in parts of four big-league seasons. The 30-year-old Diaz has played briefly with the Red Sox and Blue Jays; he spent most of 2015 with the Jays’ Triple-A Buffalo affiliate, where he played shortstop, second base and center field and batted .223/.328/.284.
  • The Braves have agreed to terms with righty Rob Wooten, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets. The 30-year-old appeared in the Brewers bullpen in the 2013 through 2015 seasons, posting a combined 5.03 ERA, 7.0 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 and throwing in the high 80s. He spent most of 2015, in a tough pitching environment at Triple-A Colorado Springs, with a 4.67 ERA, 8.7 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 over 52 innings.
  • The Reds have signed infielder Carlos Triunfel to a minor league deal, tweets Eddy. The former top Mariners prospect, now 25, batted .264/.287/.398 in 329 plate appearances with Triple-A Sacramento in the Giants organization in 2015, splitting his time between shortstop, second and third. He has appeared briefly in the big leagues with the Mariners and Dodgers.
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Atlanta Braves Cincinnati Reds Kansas City Royals MLBTR Originals New York Yankees Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres Transactions Carlos Triunfel Casey Sadler David Huff Donovan Solano Jonathan Diaz Pat Misch Rob Wooten

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Pirates Sign Right-Hander Trey Haley To Major League Contract

By Steve Adams | January 7, 2016 at 1:18pm CDT

The Pirates announced that they have signed right-handed reliever Trey Haley to a one-year, Major League Contract on Thursday.

Haley, 25, has spent his entire career in the Indians organization since being selected by Cleveland in the second round of the 2008 draft. The Texas native rated among Baseball America’s Top 30 Indians prospects from 2008-13, ranging from No. 14 to No. 28 and at times earning the distinction of having the best-rated fastball and the best-rated curveball in Cleveland’s minor league system. Control problems have long plagued Haley, but he’s never had an issue missing bats, as he’s averaged about a strikeout per inning in his minor league career. This past season, Haley reached the Triple-A level for the first time and posted a strong 2.45 ERA with 9.8 K/9 against 5.2 BB/9 in 55 innings between Double-A and Triple-A.

Haley will land on the Pirates’ 40-man roster and compete for a job this spring despite never having thrown an inning in the Majors. While the signing will come as a surprise to some, these types of deals — Major League contracts for career minor leaguers — happen a few times each offseason. This winter, we’ve already seen left-hander Buddy Baumann (Padres), right-hander Cesar Vargas (Padres) and right-hander Andury Acevedo (Cubs) land Major League deals despite having no prior Major League experience. (Right-hander Tony Barnette, too, landed a big league deal with the Rangers despite zero MLB innings, although he’s been pitching very successfully in Japan in recent years.)

The Pirates’ 40-man roster is currently full, so they’ll have to make a corresponding move in order to complete Haley’s signing. The team has yet to announce that transaction, however.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions Trey Haley

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Pirates To Sign Neftali Feliz

By Jeff Todd | January 6, 2016 at 11:11am CDT

The Pirates have agreed to terms with free agent righty Neftali Feliz, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter. The BTI Sports client will receive a $3.9MM guarantee, per Passan, and the contract also includes incentives that could push it to around $4.5MM in total value.

Feliz spent last year with the Rangers and Tigers, who added him after he was designated by Texas. Detroit elected not to tender him a contract last fall, preferring not to commit a projected $5.2MM.

There wasn’t much to like about the 27-year-old’s results last year, as he put up a combined 6.38 ERA over 48 forgettable frames. Metrics valued his actual contributions more in the low-4.00 range, though that is hardly an inspiring output either.

But Pittsburgh has taken a gamble on plenty of high-upside arms in the past, and the still-youthful Feliz looks like another worthwhile project. He’s posted dominant results earlier in his career — though ERA estimators always predicted regression — and still delivers a mid-90s fastball.

Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (Twitter link) added details on the incentives. Cotillo also tweeted that Feliz had changed agents.

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