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Pirates, Ryder Ryan Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Pirates agreed to a minor league contract with reliever Ryder Ryan, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (X link). He’ll be in MLB camp as a non-roster invitee.

Ryan made his major league debut last season. He pitched once for the Mariners, turning in a scoreless inning with two strikeouts and a walk against Baltimore. The North Carolina product otherwise spent his year with the M’s Triple-A club in Tacoma. He had a nice showing for the Rainiers, working to a 3.76 ERA across 55 innings. The righty punched out just under a quarter of his opponents against a slightly high 9.6% walk rate.

The 28-year-old has appeared in parts of three Triple-A campaigns, allowing 4.24 earned runs per nine in 159 1/3 frames. While Ryan has very little major league experience, he has been of interest to a few teams as a depth arm. Originally drafted by Cleveland, he was dealt to the Mets for Jay Bruce in 2017 and flipped to Seattle in 2020 as the player to be named later in a Todd Frazier deal.

Seattle outrighted Ryan from the 40-man roster last month. He became a minor league free agent, setting the stage for him to join a fourth organization of his career. The Bucs had a middling relief group, finishing 19th with a 4.22 ERA and 14th with a 23.7% strikeout percentage.

Cubs, Mariners, Pirates Interested In Josh Naylor

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Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor drew trade interest from the Cubs, Mariners, and Pirates during the Winter Meetings, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.  There is no indication that the Guards were in serious talks about a deal, and as Hoynes notes, “for an offensively challenged club, it seems strange that they’d consider trading [Naylor].  But…it never hurts to listen.”

The 26-year-old Naylor hit .308/.354/.489 with 17 homers over 495 plate appearances last season, marking his second straight year of quality production.  The first baseman has a 124 wRC+ in 993 PA since Opening Day 2022, and this past season saw Naylor develop into more of a well-rounded hitter than just a power bat.  Naylor’s average and OBP increased greatly from 2022, and Naylor also cut back on his strikeouts without losing any of his power.  While he doesn’t walk much, that approach isn’t unusual for a Cleveland team that prioritizes contact above all.

It seems quite possible that Naylor hasn’t yet reached his ceiling, given that his early-career development was stunted by both the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and then a nasty fractured ankle that cut short his 2021 season and cost him a bit of time at the start of the 2022 campaign.  Naylor also missed about a month due to an oblique strain in 2023, and still generated positive numbers despite a very slow start over the season’s first six weeks.

Naylor’s 128 wRC+ actually outpaced Jose Ramirez’s 123 mark for tops among all Guardians regulars, and Josh’s younger brother Bo Naylor also delivered a 124 wRC+ in the smaller sample size of 230 PA.  These were among the few highlights in an overall dismal year at the plate for the rest of Cleveland’s roster, as the lack of hitting and multiple injuries in the rotation left the Guardians with a mediocre 76-86 record in Terry Francona’s final season as manager.

As Hoynes noted, moving Naylor would seem counterintuitive for a Guardians team that is seemingly looking to upgrade the lineup.  However, as is often the case with the Guards’ moves, there is a financial element at play.  Naylor is projected to earn $7.2MM in the second of three arbitration years, and he is eligible to hit free agency after the 2025 campaign.  While Ramirez is a notable exception, the Guardians generally doesn’t try to retain star talent unless they’re locked up to extensions earlier in their careers, so Naylor could potentially join a long list of notable Cleveland players who were dealt with at least one year remaining of team control.

Just this offseason, it is widely expected that the Guardians will deal Shane Bieber since the former Cy Young Award winner will be a free agent in the 2024-25 offseason.  Cleveland has already moved Cal Quantrill to the Rockies in a salary dump type of trade, and this winter in particular carries extra financial uncertainty for the small-market Guardians since the Diamond Sports Group’s bankruptcy proceedings could see the team lose their TV deal.  Since their payroll isn’t expected to go up, that leaves the front office with some tricky decisions to make in figuring out how to improve the roster as a whole.

With this in mind, Naylor becomes a very interesting possible trade chip in an offseason market thin on big bats, particularly in free agency.  Any number of teams would certainly have interest in a 26-year-old who might not have hit his offensive peak yet, and a new club would have two years to perhaps ink Naylor to an extension.

Based on what Cleveland usually seeks out in such trades of established talent, the Guardians could try and obtain an MLB-ready who can help the team in 2024, as well as a longer-term prospect or two.  Turning to the clubs in Hoynes’ report, the highly-ranked farm systems of the Pirates and Cubs could certainly have the assets to fit what would surely be a big asking price from the Guardians.

Acquiring Naylor would instantly fill the Cubs’ needs at first base, and provide a nice pivot after Chicago missed out on Shohei Ohtani.  Cubs GM Carter Hawkins is very familiar with Naylor, as Hawkins previously worked in Cleveland’s front office before heading to Wrigleyville following the 2021 season.  As much as Jed Hoyer’s front office has been hesitant about dealing from its stash of young talent, two years of relatively inexpensive control over Naylor is a tempting proposition, and it would allow the Cubs to then devote extra dollars to free agency.

There is some irony in the Pirates looking to land a player from another team looking to cut costs, given Pittsburgh’s long history of low payrolls.  However, the Bucs have a clear need at first base, and acquiring Naylor would also be another major sign that the team is preparing to finally return to contention.  That push might even come as early as 2024, given the NL Central’s state of flux.

The Mariners are looking for a particular kind of offensive upgrade, as Naylor would fit Seattle’s prioritization of good contact hitters.  The M’s have already parted ways with Teoscar Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez, and Jarred Kelenic in their pursuit of more contact, and acquiring Naylor could also give the Mariners cover to trade current first baseman Ty France.

Steven Brault Announces Retirement

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Left-hander Steven Brault has retired, as he announced on his personal Instagram page last month. A veteran of seven MLB seasons, Brault spent almost his entire major league career as a member of the Pirates. According to a recent report by Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post Gazette, Brault has his sights set on a second act in broadcasting now that his playing career has come to a close.

“I cannot possibly describe what it feels like to achieve a childhood dream,” Brault wrote in his announcement,  “Playing Major League Baseball was everything I could have ever imagined and so much more… I may be retiring from playing, but I plan to continue in this game for life. Baseball is my passion, and I plan on sharing that passion with the world. ”

Drafted by the Orioles in the 11th round of the 2013 draft, Brault was acquired by the Pirates as the player to be named later in the deal that sent outfielder Travis Snider to the Orioles back in January 2015. Brault made his major league debut for the Pirates the following year and served as a swingman while shuttling between the majors and Triple-A from 2016 to 2017. In those first two years of his big league career, Brault posted roughly league average results, with a 4.76 ERA and 4.70 FIP in 68 innings of work.

In 2018, Brault got his first chance to stick on the major league roster, pitching to a 4.61 ERA (85 ERA+) in 91 2/3 innings of work primarily as a multi-inning reliever out of the Pittsburgh bullpen. While Brault held his own in his first full-season taste of big league action, his effectiveness was limited by control issues that saw him issue free passes to 13.8% of batters faced while striking out just 19.9%.

Brault’s role shifted again in 2019, as he began to pitch primarily as a member of the starting rotation. Brault posted a 5.16 ERA during the 2019 campaign that was virtually identical to his previous season by measure of ERA+ (84), but he eclipsed 100 innings for the first (and only time) in his career and posted more solid numbers when looking exclusively at his 19 starts that season. In 95  2/3 innings of work as a starter in 2019, Brault posted a 4.99 ERA with a walk rate under 10% while striking out 20.1% of batters faced.

The shortened 2020 campaign was by far the strongest of Brault’s career. Pitching almost exclusively as a member of the rotation, he posted a strong 3.38 ERA, 34% better than league average by measure of ERA+, with a 3.92 FIP and a career-best 21.3% strikeout rate in 42 2/3 innings of work. Unfortunately for Brault, he’d be left unable to build upon his strong campaign during the shortened season the following year as he was limited to just seven appearances due to a recurring left lat strain that saw him make his first start of the season in August before prompting returning to the injured list in September.

Brault’s injury woes led the Pirates to designate the lefty for assignment following the 2021 campaign, at which point Brault caught on with the Cubs on a minor league deal. Brault once again battled injury issues early in the season but managed to make his debut with the big league Cubs on the Fourth of July. He would ultimately make nine appearances in short relief for the Cubs, posting a 3.00 ERA and 3.33 FIP with a 20.5% strikeout rate before a shoulder strain ended his season.

Entering 2023, Brault caught on with the Spire City Ghost Hounds of the independent Atlantic League, though he did so as an outfielder, not as a pitcher. Brault had hit well during his college days with a .971 OPS in 199 trips to the plate, and was one of the better hitting pitchers in the majors as well, with a career .258/.275/.337 slash line in 101 major league plate appearances. Brault’s stint with the Ghost Hounds ultimately lasted 58 games, during which he slashed a solid .283/.327/.465 with an 18% walk rate in 200 plate appearances.

Ultimately, Brault ended his big league career having posted a 4.73 ERA and 4.64 FIP with 299 strikeouts in 352 1/3 innings of work. Those of us at MLBTR would like to congratulate Brault on his playing career and wish him all the best in his post-playing endeavors.

Vic Davalillo Passes Away

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Longtime major league outfielder Vic Davalillo has passed away at the age of 84, according to a Spanish-language report from El Extrabase.

A native of Venezuela, Davalillo began his pro baseball career in 1958. He signed with the Reds as a relief pitcher. After two and a half minor league seasons, he was traded to the Indians for cash. By the 1962 season, Cleveland had converted him to almost full-time outfield work. Davalillo spent that year in Triple-A before debuting in the big leagues the following season.

Listed at 5’7″ and 150 pounds, Davalillo was a high-contact hitter with a strong defensive reputation. He won a Gold Glove in his first full season in 1964. He was an All-Star selection the following year, receiving down-ballot MVP votes after hitting .301/.344/.372 and stealing 26 bases. The left-hander’s offensive numbers varied over the next few years, although he continued to play regularly in Cleveland for a while.

During the 1968 campaign, the Indians dealt Davalillo to the Angels for former All-Star Jimmie Hall. He swiped 25 bases while combining for a .277/.301/.355 batting line between the two clubs. That was the final year in which he reached 500 plate appearances, but he carved out an extended run thereafter as a depth outfielder.

Davalillo played in the big leagues through 1980. He had multi-year stints with the Cardinals, Pirates, A’s and Dodgers over that stretch. Davalillo was part of pennant-winning rosters with the latter three of those organizations.  He was part of the 1971 Pittsburgh team and ’73 Oakland clubs that won the World Series.

Over a major league career that spanned parts of 16 seasons, he hit .279/.315/.364. Davalillo picked up 36 homers, surpassed 1100 hits and swiped 125 bases. He was a Gold Glove winner, All-Star, and two-time champion. MLBTR sends our condolences to Davalillo’s family, friends and loved ones.

2023 Rule 5 Draft Results

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The 2023 Rule 5 draft will begin at 1pm Central time today at the Winter Meetings in Nashville.

As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and have played five professional seasons, and any players who signed at 19 years of age or older at signing that now have four professional seasons, who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

The clubs will draft in reverse order of the 2023 standings, with no club obligated to make a selection when it’s their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2024 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors. Last year’s edition saw some key players change clubs, such as Ryan Noda going from the Dodgers to the Athletics and Blake Sabol going from the Pirates to the Giants.

This post will be updated as the draft continues. Here is the order…

1.  Athletics: RHP Mitch Spence (Yankees)
2. Royals: RHP Matt Sauer (Yankees)
3. Rockies: RHP Anthony Molina (Rays)
4. White Sox: LHP Shane Drohan (Red Sox)
5. Nationals: SS Nasim Nuñez (Marlins)
6. Cardinals: RHP Ryan Fernandez (Red Sox)
7. Angels: pass
8. Mets: RHP Justin Slaten (Rangers); Mets later traded Slaten to the Red Sox for LHP Ryan Ammons* and cash considerations.
9. Pirates: pass
10. Guardians: 3B Deyvison De Los Santos (Diamondbacks)
11. Tigers: pass
12. Red Sox: pass
13. Giants: pass
14. Reds: pass
15. Padres: RHP Stephen Kolek (Mariners)
16. Yankees: pass
17. Cubs: pass
18. Marlins: pass
19. Diamondbacks: pass
20. Twins: pass
21. Mariners: pass
22. Blue Jays: pass
23. Rangers: RHP Carson Coleman (Yankees)
24. Phillies: pass
25. Astros: pass
26. Brewers: pass
27. Rays: pass
28. Dodgers: pass
29. Orioles: pass
30. Braves: pass

The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft also occurred this afternoon. Those players will not go onto the selecting teams’ 40-man roster. A few former major leaguers changed uniforms. They include 1B Seth Beer going from the Diamondbacks to the Pirates while the Yankees took RHP Kervin Castro from the Astros.

* (Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that Ammons was going to the Mets. Joel Sherman of The New York Post added that Ammons and cash were being exchanged for Slaten.

Pirates Acquire Marco Gonzales

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The Pirates announced the acquisition of left-hander Marco Gonzales and cash considerations from the Braves. Atlanta receives a player to be named later or cash in return. The move comes just two days after Atlanta landed Gonzales as part of a five-player trade with the Mariners, yet it was already expected that Gonzales would be quickly flipped to another team.

Pittsburgh will presumably now be Gonzales’ final landing spot of the offseason, as the southpaw brings some experience to a Pirates team sorely in need of rotation help.  Beyond ace Mitch Keller, the Bucs’ projected starting staff is thin on MLB service time and lacking in quality results at the big league level.  Roansy Contreras, Bailey Falter, Luis Ortiz, and Quinn Priester were lined up as the next four in the rotation, as Johan Oviedo will miss all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery, and JT Brubaker and Mike Burrows won’t be options until closer to midseason due to TJ procedures of their own from last April.  2023 first overall draft pick Paul Skenes is expected to be on a fast track to the big leagues as early as next season, yet with only 6 2/3 pro innings on his resume, it is too early to assume Skenes is a lock for his MLB debut in 2024.

This isn’t to say that Gonzales (who turns 32 in February) is necessarily a clear-cut upgrade for the Buccos, as he is trying to bounce back from essentially a lost season.  Gonzales’ 2023 campaign was cut short by a forearm strain in May, and he had struggled to a 5.22 ERA over 50 innings and 10 starts for Seattle before going on the injured list.  While the forearm problem was a painful new wrinkle to the proceedings, the overall dip in form wasn’t a total surprise, given how Gonzales has been outperforming his peripheral numbers for years.

Gonzales posted a 3.94 ERA over 765 2/3 innings for the Mariners from 2018-22, with a more unflattering 4.64 SIERA reflecting his lack of strikeouts.  Though Gonzales isn’t a hard thrower and he doesn’t miss many bats, he still achieved success with a recipe of solid control and limiting hard contact.  Despite the lack of velocity, Gonzales’ four-seamer was quietly one of the more effective pitches in baseball before 2022, when it suddenly dropped into being a below-average offering.

If Gonzales can stay healthy and get back to his pre-2023 results, that alone represents a nice boost for the Pirates’ staff.  It might help that the lefty is leaving Seattle for another pretty pitcher-friendly locale in PNC Park, as home runs also became an increasing problem for Gonzales in 2021-22.

2024 is the last guaranteed season of the four-year, $30MM extension that Gonzales signed with the Mariners prior to the 2020 campaign, and the deal also contains a $15MM club option for 2025 with no buyout.  Since Gonzales received a $250K assignment bonus for being traded from the Mariners, the $4.5MM Seattle included in the trade package to Atlanta left $7.75MM remaining in owed salary to the left-hander.  The Braves have eaten part of that portion to facilitate this next deal with Pittsburgh, only increasing Gonzales’ affordable nature — no small matter for a Pirates team that is always looking to keep its spending in check.

Though the Bucs are intending to raise their modest payroll by some extent, obtaining Gonzales for less than $7.75MM allows the club to fill one rotation hole without taking up much of whatever spending capacity GM Ben Cherington has been allotted this winter.  Since Jack Flaherty is another name on the Pirates’ radar, it could be that Pittsburgh will address its rotation with veterans on short-term deals, hoping that at least one reclamation project like Gonzales or Flaherty can bounce back to become solid starter.

From Atlanta’s perspective, taking on the contracts of Gonzales and Evan White was the price necessary to obtain Jarred Kelenic from the Mariners.  White’s injury history makes him more or less immovable outside of a total salary dump, yet Gonzales’ history as a decently effective and durable starter prior to 2022 made him a better candidate to be flipped, considering the league-wide need for pitching depth.  The Braves are known to be looking for higher-tier pitching upgrades themselves, after missing out on Aaron Nola earlier in the offseason.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Pirates were acquiring Gonzales and cash for a player to be named later.

Pirates Planning To Increase Payroll

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Never known for their big spending, the Pirates are planning some level of a payroll increase in 2024, GM Ben Cherington told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey and other reporters.  “I’d anticipate us ending up above where we landed last year,” Cherington said.  “Generally speaking, we expect that as we get better, the payroll will continue to climb with us.  To some extent, it’s motivation for us is if we can actually push that as we get better.”

This isn’t different from statements Cherington has made in the past about the Bucs’ spending, and in some sense, there’s really nowhere to go but up for a team that has traditionally been at or near the back of the pack in payroll even during its last playoff seasons (2013-15).  According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Pirates’ Opening Day payroll hasn’t ranked higher than 27th in the league in any of the last six seasons, with last year’s Opening Day number sitting at just under $73.28MM.

That 2023 payroll figure represented a notable jump from the Pirates’ $55.76MM figure at the start of the 2022 season, which might provide some hint about what kind of increase we might be able to expect this winter.  A similar-sized bump would bring the Bucs into a payroll range of around $91MM, and since the 2024 payroll ledger sits at roughly $53MM at the moment, Cherington and company could have a comparably large amount of money to work with as they look for roster upgrades.

Expecting quite such a payroll increase is far from a lock, of course, and the Pirates are one of many teams around baseball whose revenues are impacted by TV broadcasting uncertainties.  Mackey recently explored the Pirates’ situation, as the team seems to have the option of either letting MLB handle broadcast rights, or airing games on SportsNet Pittsburgh, the recently-rebranded channel that has been the Pirates’ cable TV home for years.

After losing 201 games in 2021-22, Pittsburgh’s 76-86 record represented a solid step forward in the team’s rebuilding process.  The team’s extension with Bryan Reynolds in April was another important turning point, as both the biggest contract in franchise history and a clear sign that the Pirates want to start turning towards contending.  Expecting the Bucs to make that leap in 2024 is perhaps a tall order, yet stranger things have happened, and there might be some particular opportunity within an unsettled NL Central.

It is hard to imagine this current Pirates pitching staff carrying a contender, however, and it seems clear that the bulk of whatever dollars Pittsburgh has available this winter will be focused on rotation help.  Given the ever-rising cost of pitching and the Pirates’ multiple needs in the staff, it is safe to assume that the team will go after multiple mid-tier starters rather than splurge on a Jordan Montgomery-esque ace at the very top of the market.  Reports surfaced earlier today that Jack Flaherty was a target of interest for the Pirates, with the former Cardinals standout looking for a one-year deal as he tries to rebound from a few underwhelming and injury-plagued seasons.

Pirates, Ben Heller Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Pirates have agreed to a deal with free agent reliever Ben Heller, as first reported by Jomboy’s Jack Oliver. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette adds that it’s a minor league deal for the right-hander. Heller is a client of Onyx Sports Management.

Heller, 32, pitched 18 2/3 innings for the Braves in 2023, logging a 3.86 ERA with a 19.5% strikeout rate, 13.1% walk rate and 49.1% ground-ball rate. He also notched a tidy 3.27 ERA with a 28.9% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate in 44 2/3 Triple-A frames between the Braves and Rays organizations.

Once a fairly well-regarded bullpen prospect who went from Cleveland to the Bronx (alongside Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield and J.P. Feyereisen) in the 2016 Andrew Miller trade, Heller has seen his career decimated by injuries. From 2018-22, Heller dealt with bone spurs in his pitching elbow (2018), underwent Tommy John surgery (2019) and was plagued by a nerve injury in his right biceps (2020-21). He was limited to just 35 2/3 innings between the big leagues and minors combined during that brutal stretch of health woes.

When he’s been healthy enough to pitch in the majors, Heller has been quite effective. He touts a career 3.06 ERA in 50 frames, albeit with suboptimal strikeout and walk rates of 20.9% and 11.8%, respectively. While he was working to rehab all those injuries, Heller restored some zip on his fastball; he flashed a 96.2 mph average as a rookie in 2016 before dipping to 94 mph in 2017-20. He was back up to 95.9 mph on his seldom-used four-seamer with Atlanta this past year, however, and averaged 94.9 mph on his newly implemented sinker.

He’ll need to make the big league roster as a non-roster invitee, but if Heller works his way back to the big leagues in Pittsburgh, he can be controlled for at least three more seasons via the arbitration process.

NL Central Notes: Davis, India, Brewers

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Former first-overall pick Henry Davis will return to his natural position behind the dish in 2024, says Pirates manager Derek Shelton (as relayed by Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). Davis began his professional career as a backstop but transitioned into an outfield role this past year. Throughout his first few months of big league action, he started 49 games in right field and played just two innings at catcher.

Davis has never been the strongest defender, and he lost out on playing time in 2023 to defensive wizard Austin Hedges, fellow young backstop Endy Rodríguez, and breakout backup catcher Jason Delay. All three provided Pittsburgh with positive defensive value behind the plate, per FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, and with so many capable catchers on the roster, it’s not hard to see why the Pirates were hesitant to drop Davis into the mix. Moreover, Shelton also mentioned that a right hand strain in mid-August prevented the 24-year-old from getting a chance to catch at the end of the year.

However, Davis will be more valuable and productive for the Pirates long-term if he can stick at catcher; if he reaches his offensive upside, he could be one of the best-hitting backstops in the game. For precisely that reason, catching will be the “focal point” for Davis in 2024, per Shelton. He could still see time at DH or in right field, but his manager is planning to give him a legitimate opportunity to develop his catching skills at the big league level.

In other news from around the NL Central…

  • After signing top prospect Jackson Chourio to a record-breaking contract extension, the Brewers are listening to trade offers for the rest of their young outfielders, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. While Heyman doesn’t go into much detail about any potential trade offers on the table, he names Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer, Tyrone Taylor and Blake Perkins as the cost-controlled outfielders Milwaukee could be willing to sell. With Christian Yelich a lock in left field and Chourio the favorite to start in center, the Brewers have a bevy of talented outfielders and only one more spot to fill in the starting lineup. Given the team’s need for an impact bat and starting pitching depth, the Brewers could trade from an area of strength to address those concerns.
  • The Reds are not planning to trade second baseman Jonathan India this winter, according to president of baseball operations Nick Krall (per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). However, they could give him a chance to play a new position as the team attempts to break up a logjam in the infield. Specifically, Krall suggests that India could “maybe” play some first base in 2024. The 2021 NL Rookie of the Year has not played a defensive position aside from second base since the 2019 Arizona Fall League season, and he has never played first in his professional career. However, with Elly De La Cruz at shortstop, Noelvi Marte at third base, and Matt McLain looking like a good fit at second – not to mention Spencer Steer, who has played all four infield positions in his pro career – the Reds will need to get creative to fit India into the lineup. Cincinnati has no shortage of options at first base either, including Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Tyler Stephenson, but the more flexible India can be, the better his chances of earning regular playing time.

Pirates Showing Interest In Jack Flaherty

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The Pirates are among the teams with some interest in free agent righty Jack Flaherty, reports Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat. The Bucs are interested in a short-term pact with their former division-rival, per Jones.

Interest on a short-term deal, of course, is contingent on how the remainder of the market views Flaherty. At 28 years of age, he’s the youngest starting pitcher with ample big league experience available this winter. However, Flaherty is also coming off a down season that saw him pitch to a 4.99 ERA in 144 1/3 innings between the Cardinals and the Orioles, who acquired him prior to the trade deadline.

Not long ago, Flaherty looked like a burgeoning ace. The former first-round pick and top prospect turned in a 3.34 ERA over 151 innings back in 2018, his first full big league season, and followed it up with even better numbers. At a time when most pitchers in the league were falling victim to what we now know was a juiced ball in 2019, Flaherty was delivering the best season of his still-young career: 196 1/3 innings, 2.75 ERA, 29.9% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate. Unfortunately for both him and the Cardinals, injuries (primarily shoulder troubles) limited him to 154 1/3 innings from 2020-22 combined. Last year marked a return to better health but also lesser results.

Flaherty figures to have multiple scenarios he could pursue. A straight one-year deal or perhaps a two- or three-year pact with an opt-out would allow him the opportunity to reenter free agency not far down the road — ideally on the heels of a better platform season. In the past, a straight one-year deal was often the norm for a player in this situation. Increasingly, however, we’ve seen free agents coax two-year deals out of teams, with the second season being a player option.

There’s also the possibility of pursuing a more conventional, longer-term deal that’d still allow Flaherty to return to market at a reasonably young age. In the past, we’ve seen some free agents around the same age (e.g. Phil Hughes, Tyler Chatwood) take three-year deals that provided some financial security while also affording an opportunity to get back to the market in time for another chance at a contract of note. A three-year deal for Flaherty would cover his age-28, age-29 and age-30 seasons. If the market bears it, that arrangement could effectively set Flaherty for life financially and still create the chance to hit the market in search of a more elusive five- or six-year commitment.

As for the specific fit with the Pirates — it’s a strong one, regardless of which type of contractual structure Flaherty prefers. While Pirates ownership might balk at a multi-year commitment of note, Pittsburgh is in dire need of rotation help. Mitch Keller is the only established starter on the roster now that righty Johan Oviedo will miss the 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery. Flaherty would slot comfortably into the starting staff and do so knowing that he’d have a long leash regardless of how he starts the season. Other options on the Pittsburgh staff currently include Bailey Falter, Roansy Contreras, Quinn Priester and Luis Ortiz. This past season’s No. 1 overall pick, right-hander Paul Skenes, will likely debut at some point in 2024 as well.

With regard to the team’s payroll, the Pirates only have three players under contract for the 2024 season (Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, Ryan Borucki) and another four arbitration-eligible players (Keller, David Bednar, Connor Joe, JT Brubaker). Roster Resource projects just a $53MM payroll for the upcoming season. Even by the Buccos’ standards, that’s at the bottom of the scale. Pittsburgh opened the 2023 season at $73MM and operated under a franchise-record $100MM back in 2016. There ought to be plenty of room to add multiple starters — even if some money is perhaps earmarked for another reunion with Pirates icon Andrew McCutchen.

Whether Flaherty is a part of the solution or not, the Pirates simply need to bring in multiple arms this winter. Flaherty’s youth and track record (particularly that 2018-19 run) give him more upside than most free agents in the second and third tiers of free agency, but that might also make him a popular target and push the bidding beyond the comfort zone of the perennially low-spending Pirates.

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