Rosenthal’s Latest: Dunn, Wood, Sheets
Ken Rosenthal suggests that in this economy some teams may not offer arbitration to Type A free agents to avoid risking a payroll hit. Further, some players may opt to accept the certainty of arbitration over "a volatile free agent period."
The Dbacks were always expected to offer arbitration to Adam Dunn and he was expected to decline thus netting Arizona two draft picks to compensate for the three players they dealt in August. In arbitration, Dunn would command $15-16MM. Says Rosenthal,
"…if the D-backs made the offer, it’s doubtful that Dunn and his agents would determine by midnight Saturday that a multiyear contract was beyond their reach. What’s more, the D-backs always could trade Dunn if he accepted their offer. In that sense, he would be an asset on a one-year deal; the Nationals, among other teams, would jump."
In arbitration, Kerry Wood would get around $9-10MM per year but it’s obvious the Cubs are not interested in even one year at that price – that money is better spent improving the rotation. The Cubs see Carlos Marmol, not Wood, as their closer and have opted to replace their setup man by trading for Kevin Gregg rather than paying Wood to slot into the role. Rosenthal notes Wood said he would have returned on a one year deal, and if he were to accept arbitration then the Cubs would most likely look to deal him – perhaps to the Rangers?
Rosenthal also points out that arbitration contracts are not guaranteed, but releasing Wood in Spring Training would result in a grievance by the players union. It would be hard to justify releasing a player of Wood’s caliber.
Ben Sheets could command $13-14MM in arbitration and for an ace-quality pitcher that’s reasonable. Rosenthal makes this easy:
"If the Brewers fail to offer Sheets arbitration, it will be a clear indication that club officials are concerned about his ability to stay healthy in 2009. And remember, the Brewers know Sheets better than any other team."
Kurkjian Reports: Byrnes, Ibanez, Dunn
Tim Kurkjian at ESPN.com has a Friday morning round up for us, looking at several prominent team needs around the league.
While the article mentions several big names like Mike Mussina, Matt Holliday, Francisco Rodriguez and Trevor Hoffman, perhaps the most interesting part of Kurkjian’s article is that which discusses the offseason plan for the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Part of that plan may include trading outfielder Eric Byrnes. Byrnes has two years and $20MM left on his deal with the D’Backs, and will be a challenge to move, says Kurkjian. Byrnes certainly has upside, with great speed and decent pop. But injuries have kept him from really breaking out in the past.
Also, Kurkjian offers Raul Ibanez as an "ideal" solution to Arizona’s everyday player needs. However, he doesn’t expect the D’Backs to be able to keep up in what is expected to be a fierece bidding competition for the right fielder. With the Mets, Phillies, and Cubs apparently involved, Kurkjian would appear to be spot on in that assessment.
The Diamondbacks have a lot of needs to address with just a little bit of money–Adam Dunn, Orlando Hudson, Randy Johnson, Brandon Lyon and Juan Cruz are all likely departing via free agency this offseason.
Odds and Ends: Blue Jays, Dodgers, Dunn
Happy Thanksgiving! Here are some links to snack on before the big meal.
- Blue Jays interim CEO Paul Beeston believes they have a chance to re-sign A.J. Burnett, but may choose to save the money earmarked for him if he signs elsewhere.
- ESPN’s Jayson Stark assesses the Tigers. Catching seems to be their top priority this winter, though they need a shortstop and closer too.
- There is a growing sentiment that the Blue Jays will have less to spend this winter than originally anticipated.
- Bill Plaschke attempts to get clarification from Jamie McCourt on her recent quotes.
- Curt Schilling remembers the events leading up to his trade to the Red Sox.
- SI.com’s Jon Heyman says the market is eerily quiet for Adam Dunn so far.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Sabathia, Yankees, Pirates, Rays
Let’s take a look at what is being written in the Blogosphere…
- MetsBlog feels the reported interest in C.C. Sabathia is overblown. Rather, they see the Mets waiting for Sabathia to sign before making a move of their own for starting pitching.
- River Ave. Blues still sees the Yankees pursuing Mark Teixeira or Adam Dunn, even with the acquisition of Nick Swisher.
- Where have you gone, Andy Van Slyke speculates on what the Pirates will do this winter while finding humor in this recent quote from the Buccos’ GM: "we’d love to upgrade the offense, upgrade our pitching, and rebuild the bench."
- MVN Outsider takes the role of Andrew Friedman in their "Being the GM" series and proposes three moves for the Rays including trading Andy Sonnanstine and Chad Bradford for Andre Ethier.
- With the Rays likely to trade pitching this winter, Rays Prospects takes a closer look at how the starting pitchers throughout the organization performed in 2008. Sonnanstine was clearly a better pitcher than Edwin Jackson.
- Pinstripes Published has started a series looking at some of the cheaper alternatives that can be found in the free agent market. First up, starting pitchers.
- Ump Bump is taking a look at what each team needs this offseason. They have already gone through eight teams including the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs and Phillies.
Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com and can be reached here.
Nationals Not Pursuing Manny
Yesterday, Yahoo’s Tim Brown suggested the Nationals and Jim Bowden were "promising everyone they’re going to be players in the Manny bidding." However, Bowden sent an email to MLB.com’s Bill Ladson today: "We are not pursuing Manny Ramirez."
Ladson says the Nationals are still in the market for a lefthanded slugger – Mark Teixeira, Adam Dunn, and Prince Fielder remain on the radar. And despite their abundance of outfielders, they’ve expressed interest in new Rockie Carlos Gonzalez.
Perrotto’s Latest: Free Agent Predictions
John Perrotto has his Every Given Sunday column up over at Baseball Prospectus. Perrotto offers a list of some educated guesses as to where some of the top free agents in baseball will land, with some surprises here and there. Let’s take a look:
- Perrotto lists the Yankees loading up on starting pitching, landing C.C. Sabathia and Derek Lowe, while the Dodgers land Manny Ramirez after doubling their initial offer to four years, $100MM.
- Perrotto says the Nationals will land Mark Teixeira, as they could be prepared to offer Teixeira – a Maryland native – ten years, $200MM. Turning down that kind of money would certainly be difficult.
- Perrotto has Adam Dunn landing on the North Side of Chicago and having an adventurous time in right field for the Cubs. According to these predictions, he’ll be joined by Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood – neither of whom are going anywhere.
- Perrotto feel Andy Pettitte won’t be back with the Yankees, and feels that he will either take a below-market contract from his hometown Astros or retire. He also pegs Mike Mussina to likely retire, but agrees he’ll be back with the Yankees if he does indeed make a run at 300 wins.
- Other predictions from Perrotto: Raul Ibanez and Francisco Rodriguez to the Mets, Milton Bradley to Toronto, Orlando Cabrera to Minnesota, Casey Blake back to Cleveland, A.J. Burnett to the Orioles, Brian Fuentes to the Angels, Nick Punto to St. Louis, Randy Johnson to the Angels, Jason Giambi to Oakland, and Orlando Hudson to the Mets.
- The list of players who will end up back with their current teams: Ben Sheets, Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell, Jamie Moyer, and Jason Varitek, on a two-year $20MM contract, courtesy of Scott Boras.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Nationals, Manny, Peavy, Vazquez
We’ve already touched on Ken Rosenthal’s Matt Holliday update, but there are other good tidbits in the article as well:
- "Club officials believe" that the Nationals are "reasonably close to a breakthrough." They blame 2008’s sorry performance on the raft of injuries Washington suffered, which is why they’re willing to spend now for a big bat — the key names floating around have been the aforementioned Holliday, Adam Dunn, and Mark Teixeira, though Rosenthal seems skeptical they could snag any of them. But what about Manny Ramirez? "Jim Bowden, the Nats’ unconventional GM, probably would love the idea, but D.C. might not be big enough for Manny and Barack Obama." Looking at the impact that Manny has had on the LA’s attendance, and looking at the empty seats at Nationals Park, it could make sense.
- Obligatory Jake Peavy update: Padres discuss keeping the ace, Braves grow impatient. Cubs are still in the mix, while the Dodgers and Yankees are "on the backburner." (Buster Olney had a subtly different take posted a few hours later — that Peavy would be dealt before the turkey hits the sideboard.) Rosenthal also quotes Pads GM Kevin Towers as wanting to move the fences in at Petco (which is hard enough just to write without typing in "cavernous" as an automatic prefix).
- The Mets, among other ballclubs, are interested in Rays’ righties Andy Sonnanstine and Edwin Jackson, but the Rays are in no hurry to make a deal.
- "The White Sox are in an ideal position with" Javier Vazquez if they wait until Peavy, CC Sabathia, et al are placed and then shop him, Rosenthal argues. The 32-year old righty will make $23 MM through 2010, which he calls "a bargain for a pitcher who has produced four straight 200-inning seasons, albeit with a 49-51 record and 4.41 ERA." On the other hand, Vazquez has also hit the 200-strikeout mark in each of the last two seasons.
Sarah Green can be reached here.
Heyman’s Latest: Furcal, Jenks, Nats, Yankees, White Sox
Here are a few of the latest notes from Jon Heyman…
- The Dodgers offered Rafael Furcal a two-year deal worth $25-30MM. A source close to Furcal told Heyman that the Dodgers know that it will take more and at least eight teams have expressed interest in Furcal.
- In the same piece Heyman says the White Sox are open to trading Bobby Jenks, but Heyman’s source says it will "take quite a bit."
- Heyman says the Nationals are not likely to land any of the big names they covet noting they do not have the pieces for a trade and few free agents would be willing to play for a 100-loss team. Heyman does say Adam Dunn could be one player that is willing to sign with the Nats based on his relationship with Jim Bowden.
- Heyman says the Yankees may be serious about trading for Mike Cameron noting that they have even asked for Alex Rodriguez’ opinion of his former teammate.
- Heyman reports that the White Sox could trade several of their bigger players. Most of the names have been heard here over the last couple of days, but one we haven’t heard in a while is Paul Konerko. Heyman says Konerko could be an attractive backup plan to any team that fails to sign Mark Teixeira. Heyman also says the White Sox could go after Orlando Hudson if they can unload some of their bigger contracts.
Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com and can be reached here.
Boras Makes Pitch For Felipe Lopez
Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic has some good stuff tonight:
- Scott Boras made his pitch for infielder Felipe Lopez, suggesting Lopez "re-established" himself in 169 plate appearances with the Cardinals. He hopes to find Lopez a starting gig and a multiyear deal. Piecoro heard Lopez would love to play for Arizona, but isn’t sure if the interest is mutual.
- Adam Dunn does not have a positional preference – he’s open to first base or either of the outfield corners. Piecoro’s heard Dunn prefers the NL, just like Pat Burrell.
- Piecoro likes the fit with Kelly Johnson for the D’Backs, but isn’t sure who they’d send in return.
- If the D’Backs fail to re-sign Randy Johnson, they’ll probably look at bargain free agent starters in January. If it’s true that the Diamondbacks have just $3-5MM budgeted for Johnson, he’s gone.
Heyman’s Latest: Holliday, Bradley, Hudson
SI.com’s Jon Heyman reports from the GM meetings…
- Matt Holliday showed up at the GM meetings to talk to Scott Boras, sparking trade speculation by reporters.
- The Rangers failed to reach an agreement with Milton Bradley, and he’ll seek a four-year deal worth more than $10MM per. Good luck with that.
- Heyman says the Nationals are interested in Mark Teixeira and Matt Holliday, which MLB.com’s Bill Ladson first reported yesterday. It does not seem that the Nats have the goods to acquire Holliday. Heyman adds A.J. Burnett as a possibility, though Ken Rosenthal said to scratch them from the running this morning. Adam Dunn is a more realistic name for the Nats.
- The Angels haven’t ruled out signing Teixeira and C.C. Sabathia, though it’d be tough to fit both in the payroll.
- The Yankees are eyeing Orlando Hudson, and could even ask him to play center field. Nick Piecoro figures this would require an absurd offer from the Yanks.