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Aroldis Chapman

Manfred On Domestic Violence Policy, CBA, Qualifying Offers, Expansion

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Commissioner Rob Manfred spoke to reporters today about several topics of note. Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press had all the choice quotes, and all links below are to his Twitter feed. Here are some of the highlights:

  • Manfred expects “some action” in the coming days on the league’s outstanding domestic violence matters. So far as has been publicly reported, Jose Reyes, Aroldis Chapman, and Yasiel Puig all still have open investigations pending. Their respective actions represent three rather different scenarios that will test the league’s new policy in this area.
  • The commissioner had some interesting comments on cases where there is no prosecution, as with Chapman and Puig. The policy expressly provides that league discipline can still result, and Manfred suggested the decisions of law enforcement wouldn’t make up his own mind. For one thing, he said, there are “lots of reasons for non-prosecution” and noted that the domestic violence policy “is pretty explicit” that it isn’t required. He also noted that “the standards of proof in a labor arbitration and a criminal case is very different.”
  • That’s just one of many items on Manfred’s docket, of course. The major overarching matter is the need for a new collective bargaining agreement, and Manfred said that he had a face-to-face meeting with union boss Tony Clark today to begin putting together a timeline for hammering out a new agreement.
  • One topic that’s likely near the top of Clark’s own to-do list is the functioning of the qualifying offer system. Manfred touched upon that briefly today, echoing his prior comments in favor of the system. Draft picks, he explained, are “not penalties, they’re compensation.” As for the ongoing difficulties that some QO-bound free agents have had in reaching deals, Manfred indicated that wasn’t necessarily an unexpected result. “It’s not a surprise to me given the size of the class,” he said.
  • Further down the line are considerations of expansion, which he called “important conceptually” but noted was not “an immediate issue for us.” Manfred did suggest that adding a pair of clubs was an appealing prospect. That doesn’t mean there aren’t some near-term opportunities for growth into new markets, though, as Manfred said that the league still hopes to have spring games played in Cuba this year.
  • With Jenrry Mejia receiving the league’s first lifetime PED ban, the commish acknowledged that tougher penalties won’t wipe the issue away completely. “I would like to tell [you] the problem of performance enhancing drugs is going away, but I can’t say that,” said Manfred.

AL East Notes: Hunter, Chapman, Rays, Ramirez

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The Yankees have, rather notably, failed to sign a single free agent to a major league contract this winter. But that doesn’t mean the team hasn’t tried. In fact, the team had a two-year deal for between $11.5MM and $12MM in place with righty Tommy Hunter, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. But an unidentified issue cropped up in his physical, leading the club to blow up the deal (the timing of which is unclear). Hunter ultimately received just $2MM in guaranteed money from the Indians, of course, though that perhaps also reflected the fact that he needed core muscle surgery in early January and will miss the start of the season.

Here’s more from New York and the rest of the AL East:

  • The Yankees’ opportunistic acquisition of Aroldis Chapman, in the midst of a still-ongoing investigation into domestic violence allegations, raises some hard and uncomfortable questions for the organization, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports writes. Meanwhile, New York is still waiting to learn what kind of punishment may be doled out, Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News reports. Indeed, the club is not even sure when it will be informed of a decision. Chapman himself says that he has been interviewed by the league and would appeal any suspension, Passan tweets.
  • Rays president of baseball operations Mathew Silverman indicated that he’s not ruling out trade activity this spring, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. Silverman explains that the “transaction window is open longer” now than in the past, with other organizations seeming to show an increased willingness to strike deals during camp.
  • While the Red Sox are optimistic that Hanley Ramirez can be a productive contributor at first base, writes ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, the club has ways to fill in if the experiment fails. Of course, as Olney notes, there’s plenty of time for assessment before any tough choices are made.

New York Notes: ARod, Tex, Alderson, Wright

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In a list of 20 rookies to watch this season, Mets pitcher Steven Matz ranked fifth, writes Richard Justice of MLB.com. Matz is set to spend the season in the rotation, although the club has talked about having a sixth starter help to keep the young pitchers fresh. Across town, outfield prospect Aaron Judge is eighth on Justice’s list. He expects injuries to old vets to open an opportunity. Personally, I’m not entirely convinced Judge is major league ready after he hit .224/.308/.373 in 228 Triple-A plate appearances. The club has decent outfield depth too.

  • Speaking of potential Yankees injuries, fragility may define the 2016 Bombers, writes George A. King III of the NY Post. The rotation looks solid but thin. Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, CC Sabathia, and even Nathan Eovaldi have all had their run-ins with the trainer. Luis Severino is young and therefore uncertain (pitching is always uncertain). Among the position players, Greg Bird is already out for the year. Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, Alex Rodriguez, and Mark Teixeira are all safe bets to need some time on the shelf.
  • Rodriguez and Teixeira may be key players in 2016, suggests Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. Their ability to once again tap into the fountain of youth is one of Feinsand’s five questions for the 2016 campaign. He also wonders if Aroldis Chapman will face suspension, if Sabathia’s new knee brace can help him rebound, and if the rest of the rotation can stay healthy.
  • Mets GM Sandy Alderson continues to undergo chemotherapy for an undisclosed cancer, writes Adam Rubin of ESPN. He received the diagnosis shortly after the club clinched the NL East last season, giving the playoffs a bittersweet tinge. It has not affected his job.
  • Alderson figures David Wright should play a maximum of 130 games next season, writes Rubin. The club is keen to avoid overtaxing his back. He’ll rest against tough right-handed pitchers with Wilmer Flores likely to enter the lineup.
  • Alderson also answered a wide range of questions for Steve Serby of the NY Post. He touched upon his illness, virtually every position on the roster, and the farm system. When asked about the starting rotation, Alderson said, “you go that deep into the playoffs, there’s gonna be kind of a surcharge on their innings. So we’re gonna be careful with them. It doesn’t mean that we’re gonna manage their innings necessarily.“

Yankees Avoid Arbitration With Aroldis Chapman

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The Yankees have avoided arbitration with recently-acquired lefty Aroldis Chapman by agreeing to a one-year, $11.325MM deal, per Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter).

That figure comes in $275K above the midpoint between the two sides’ filing numbers of $13.1MM and $9MM. It does fall a fair sight shy of the $12.9MM payday projected by MLBTR coming into the winter.

Chapman, of course, came to the Yankees at a discounted price after it was revealed that he was allegedly involved in a serious domestic disturbance. While charges will not be filed against him, there is still a possibility of league discipline relating to the matter.

The Yankees will obviously hope that the investigation does not reveal cause for a lengthy suspension, with intentions of utilizing Chapman alongside fellow late-inning aces Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances in what could be the most fearsome trio of relievers ever seen in one pen. Anything close to a typical season from the dominating lefty would not only make the trade an easy win (from an on-field perspective, at least), but would set up New York to recoup a draft pick by making him a qualifying offer.

Last year may not quite have been Chapman’s very best overall campaign, but it probably cemented his status as the league’s best reliever regardless. He ended with a 1.63 ERA on the back of a ridiculous 15.7 K/9 strikeout rate. He did permit 4.5 free passes per regulation game, and doesn’t generate many grounders, but that hardly detracts from his near-invincible aura. Indeed, Chapman has struck out nearly half of the hitters he’s faced over the past two seasons and continues to work in the 99 to 100 mph range with his average fastball.

AL East Notes: Rays Pen, O’s, Gallardo, Fowler, Chapman

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The Rays are in “advanced talks” with free agent righty Tommy Hunter, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. But Topkin cautions that Hunter is still also holding chats with other teams, possibly in search of a multi-year guarantee, suggesting that a signing with Tampa Bay is not imminent. And ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick notes that Hunter is still rehabbing after needing core muscle surgery this winter (Twitter links). The club is working on other possibilities as it looks to beef up a pen that has lost some options to trade. Ryan Webb is also under consideration, per the report, and the Rays have looked elsewhere as well — both on the free agent and trade markets.

Here’s more from the AL East:

  • Orioles executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette discussed his team’s remaining free agent efforts today with Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. While declining to discuss reported target Yovani Gallardo directly, Duquette did shed some light on that pursuit in acknowledging his efforts to “bolster” the staff. He talked about the difficulty of parting with a draft pick, and spoke quite disparagingly of the idea of giving an opt-out clause to a player, saying that he doesn’t “see any advantage to the club with that type of relationship.” That appears to be a key factor in the talks between team and player.
  • Duquette also touched upon the potential for an outfield addition, calling that “possible” while saying that he thinks the team has “enough outfield depth.” Duquette did note the interest in adding a quality on-base threat to the top of the lineup, which would seem to make Dexter Fowler an appealing match. Reports earlier today connected Baltimore to veteran free agent.
  • Giving up two top-thirty draft picks to sign Gallardo and Fowler appears to be a possible outcome at this point for the Orioles, though there are still plenty of other scenarios as well. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs recently broke down the argument for signing both players, presumably at reduced guarantees, thereby reducing the average draft pick cost. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports takes a look, too, crediting the organization for being willing to spend but suggesting that it needs to find a way to replace the lost draft picks (and prospects sent out via trade) in some other way — most likely by ramping up international spending.
  • The Yankees and recently-acquired reliever Aroldis Chapman are set for a hearing on February 19, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter. There’s more than $4MM separating the sides’ filing numbers, so obviously both sides have ample incentive (and time) to work out a compromise. If not, it would make for an interesting case, albeit perhaps a sub-optimal way for their relationship to begin.

Quick Hits: Bell, Linares, Puig, Jackson, Rays

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The big ticket free agents aren’t always the most important offseason additions, writes AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. Using the Steamer projection system, Cassavell takes a look at the six players he thinks will most affect their respective divisions. Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman and Cubs center fielder Jason Heyward are obvious picks. Surprisingly, Cassavell finds Mike Napoli to be the big name in the AL Central while Wade Miley’s move to Seattle could be sneaky important.

Here are a few more notes from around the league:

  • Cuban veterans Alexei Bell and Yordanis Linares will hold workouts on February 15 and 16 in Baja California, tweets Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com. Bell, 32, was reported to have left Cuba on January 13 and could fit as a right fielder. Linares’ defection was reported last summer. The 26-year-old doesn’t have enough professional experience in the Serie Nacional to avoid international spending restrictions. Bell, however, can be signed by any team.
  • The White Sox should target Yasiel Puig, opines Scott Merkin of MLB.com. Chicago has shown curiosity about the Dodgers outfield depth and could obviously stand to improve in the outfield. Rumors have tied them to veteran lefty Andre Ethier who could provide a useful platoon bat. However, Puig represents a more definitive upgrade with a star ceiling. Unfortunately, young talent comes with a price. Merkin lists pitchers Carson Fulmer, Spencer Adams, and shortstop Tim Anderson as possible targets for the Dodgers. Trading any of that trio would be a bitter pill to swallow.
  • The Indians could be a fit for free agent outfielder Austin Jackson, suggest Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com. Center field depth would be useful considering that Michael Brantley will start the season on the disabled list. Lonnie Chisenhall, Rajai Davis, and Abraham Almonte figure to form the Opening Day outfield, and it’s not hard to see a way to improve upon that trio. At the very least, additional depth in case of injury would be valuable.
  • The Rays should consider three more offseason moves, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The bullpen could use additional depth – perhaps Tyler Clippard or Tommy Hunter. Either Desmond Jennings or Brandon Guyer can be traded. The team is deepest with them on the roster, but they may be expendable. Jennings’ health may make a trade difficult. Lastly, Ian Desmond looks more and more attractive as a buy low option. The Rays have to be willing to discard their 13th overall selection in the draft if they’re to sign Desmond.

No Criminal Charges Filed Against Aroldis Chapman

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Rafael Olmeda of the Miami Sun Sentinel reports that Broward County prosecutors will not file criminal charges against left-hander Aroldis Chapman in connection with allegations of domestic violence dating back to this past October. Olmeda adds that the Broward State’s Attorney office will be making an official statement on the matter later today.

Chapman’s lawyer, Paul Molle, issued the following statement, according to Olmeda: “We are all pleased that the Davie Police Department and the Office of the State Attorney took the time to fully investigate the matter and have concluded that charges were not warranted.”

As Olmeda reminds, no arrests were made at the time of the purported incident, with police officials citing inconsistencies in witness accounts. Chapman’s girlfriend, Cristina Barnea, told police that Chapman struck her in front of others at a birthday party and also choked her. The initial reports of the incident also alleged that Chapman discharged a handgun eight times in his garage. However, Olmeda writes that Barnea later told police she only heard one gunshot, was not certain who fired the shot and did not wish to prosecute Chapman. He continues, noting that Barnea told prosecutors that she did not remember saying that Chapman had hit her, and other witnesses said they saw no physical altercation between the pair.

Whether or not Chapman will face some form of suspension under Major League Basbeall’s newly implemented domestic violence policy remains to be seen. That decision will be left up to commissioner Rob Manfred’s discretion. The widespread expectation has been that Chapman will face some form of repercussion — likely in the form of a suspension — although the fact that no arrest was made and no charges have been filed seems likely to work in his favor to some extent.

Earlier this offseason, the Dodgers backed out of a trade to acquire Chapman, reportedly in large part due to the emergence of these allegations. The Yankees acquired Chapman from the Reds several weeks later for a package of infielder Eric Jagielo, right-hander Rookie Davis, right-hander Caleb Cotham and infielder Tony Renda.

2016 Arbitration Filing Numbers

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MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s noon deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.

As MLBTR has previously explained, 156 players officially filed for arbitration (after some eligible and tendered players had already reached agreement). Of those, 34 players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still reach agreements before their hearings (which will take place between February 1st and 21st). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint.

We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining — those where the player files for at least $4.5MM — in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker (with two as-yet-unreported exceptions).

Arbitration Breakdown: Aroldis Chapman, Mark Melancon, Kenley Jansen

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Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Mark Melancon

As young fireballers have gotten more opportunity to close, more arbitration cases with few comparables have emerged. Last year, I wrote about such a foursome of closers who had reached second-year arbitration eligibility, and this year I am writing about two of those closers, Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, along with Mark Melancon (who I wrote about separately last year). My arbitration model projects each of these pitchers to get raises between $4MM and $4.85MM this winter, each of which would break Jim Johnson’s current record of a $3.88MM raise for a third-year eligible closer.

Depending on how different statistics are weighed, they all have a compelling case to break this record. Johnson’s $3.88MM raise came after he had a 2.49 ERA and 51 saves in 68 2/3 innings, but Johnson struck out just 41 batters that season. He also only had 72 total saves at that point in his career. Although pre-platform performances generally do not matter outside of first-time-eligible arbitration salaries, one large exception I have found is career saves for closers. It is clear that having a history of being a closer matters, which means that Chapman’s 146 career saves, Melancon’s 121 saves, and Jansen’s 142 saves will all help them have better arbitration cases than Johnson did with 72 career saves.

Melancon also had 51 platform-year saves, matching Johnson’s 51 in his platform year in 2012. Along with his 2.23 ERA in 76 2/3 innings, he should have little trouble topping Johnson’s $3.88MM raise after his 2.49 ERA in 68 2/3 innings. Melancon’s $4.6MM projected raise seems about right.

Although Chapman only had 33 platform-year saves, his 1.63 ERA and aforementioned 146 career saves have led him to get an even bigger projected raise than Melancon. His projection actually slightly exceeded the Kimbrel Rule maximum, which is why he is projected for $12.9MM instead of the $13MM figure that was actually forecast by the model. In spite of the lower platform-year save total, Chapman’s vastly superior ERA and greater bulk of career saves give fair reason to assume he will probably get a bigger raise than Melancon, whose case is a straightforward improvement over Jim Johnson’s 2013 case. Both pitchers are likely to get raises between $4MM and $4.85MM.

Kenley Jansen

Kenley Jansen is projected to land a $4MM raise, which would just barely top Johnson’s record. Jansen had 36 platform-year saves, but 142 career saves, so he has fewer platform-year saves but almost double Johnson’s career saves. His platform-year ERA (2.41) is a bit better than Johnson’s was, although it came in fewer innings (52 1/3 versus 68 2/3) due to the fact that Jansen opened the season on the disabled list with a foot injury. I could see Jansen failing to make the case that he should get a larger raise than Johnson did, although if Melancon or Chapman set new records, he could easily argue that those are more applicable comparisons.

It is difficult to find pitchers other than Johnson that would apply to this trio of players. Jose Valverde had 44 platform-year saves going into his 2009 case, in which he earned $3.3MM, and he did have 142 career saves. However, his ERA was 3.38. A year prior to that, Francisco Rodriguez had a $2.95MM raise with similar numbers, but that case would be even more stale than Valverde’s. Joel Hanrahan got a $2.94MM raise with 36 saves going into his 2013 case, but he only had 96 career saves at that point. Johnson’s case against appears more applicable for all three of these closers.

Each of these three players could set the market for each other, so their raises are likely to be highly interdependent. They are also likely to set the market for future closers, now that more players will presumably reach their third year of arbitration eligibility with a career of closing behind them. I think that my model probably has appropriately guessed their salaries for 2016, but if it is wrong, it will probably be either too high on all three, or too low on all three.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Bettis, Suspensions, Lazarito, Trades, Frazier

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Since the Rockies are lacking in frontline pitching, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post predicts that right-hander Chad Bettis will emerge as the team’s “quasi-ace” in 2016.  Youngster Jon Gray is still adapting to the bigs and Jorge De La Rosa’s age and injury history make him a question mark, and if De La Rosa does pitch well, he may end up leaving in a deadline trade.  That leaves the 26-year-old Bettis perhaps in the best position to become Colorado’s top starter.  The righty posted a 4.23 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 2.33 K/BB rate and 49.3% grounder rate over 115 innings last season, his first extended taste of Major League action.  There’s a lot to like about Bettis’ potential, though time will tell if he can consistently produce in the notoriously hitter-friendly Coors Field.  Here’s more from around baseball…

  • Major League Baseball will likely announce any discipline for Aroldis Chapman, Yasiel Puig and Jose Reyes before Spring Training camps open and no later than March 1, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter links).  The three players all face possible suspensions for recent domestic violence incidents, as per the Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy instituted by MLB and the MLBPA last August.  The league’s rulings will be closely watched as possible precedent-setters under this new policy.  As Rosenthal notes, the policy doesn’t set any minimum or maximum penalties, and it also doesn’t state whether a suspended player would still be eligible to play during Spring Training.
  • Sixteen-year-old Cuban outfielder Lazaro Armenteros held a showcase for scouts on January 8th and “early returns…have been mixed at best,” ESPN.com’s Eric Longenhagen tweets.  Several sources described Armenteros as “unable to play center field” and “too muscular & stiff,” though he did receive a very good grade of between 6-7 (based on the scouting grading scale of 2-8) on his running.  Between 150-200 scouts were expected to attend his showcase, and one veteran scout even cited such names as Willie Mays and Bo Jackson to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale last month in terms of comparable power and speed, though the caveat that Armenteros was still quite “young and raw” in his ability.  There has been quite a bit of speculation about the phenom known as “Lazarito,” as this was the first time MLB scouts had been able to see him in any sort of baseball activity since the summer of 2014.  It isn’t yet known if Lazarito will be cleared to sign with a Major League team during this international signing period or the next (which begins on July 2).
  • “Nobody wants to do a small trade. They only want to talk about big trades,” an executive tells ESPN’s Buster Olney (Twitter link).  This observation about the current trade market is followed up by Olney in his latest subscription-only column, as he notes that teams are looking to acquire big-name players now since the next two free agent markets are pretty thin on elite talent.  As such, Olney lists several big names that executives feel could be major trade targets this summer.
  • The White Sox made the single biggest position upgrade of any team this offseason when they dealt for Todd Frazier, MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell writes.  Using the Steamer projection system, third base for the White Sox projects to improve by 3.5 WAR from its sub-replacement total in 2015.  While Frazier is a fine player, this may be more an indictment of Chicago’s long-time struggles at the hot corner. as Cassavell notes that White Sox third basemen have a cumulative -0.5 WAR over the last five seasons.
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