No Criminal Charges Filed Against Aroldis Chapman
Rafael Olmeda of the Miami Sun Sentinel reports that Broward County prosecutors will not file criminal charges against left-hander Aroldis Chapman in connection with allegations of domestic violence dating back to this past October. Olmeda adds that the Broward State’s Attorney office will be making an official statement on the matter later today.
Chapman’s lawyer, Paul Molle, issued the following statement, according to Olmeda: “We are all pleased that the Davie Police Department and the Office of the State Attorney took the time to fully investigate the matter and have concluded that charges were not warranted.”
As Olmeda reminds, no arrests were made at the time of the purported incident, with police officials citing inconsistencies in witness accounts. Chapman’s girlfriend, Cristina Barnea, told police that Chapman struck her in front of others at a birthday party and also choked her. The initial reports of the incident also alleged that Chapman discharged a handgun eight times in his garage. However, Olmeda writes that Barnea later told police she only heard one gunshot, was not certain who fired the shot and did not wish to prosecute Chapman. He continues, noting that Barnea told prosecutors that she did not remember saying that Chapman had hit her, and other witnesses said they saw no physical altercation between the pair.
Whether or not Chapman will face some form of suspension under Major League Basbeall’s newly implemented domestic violence policy remains to be seen. That decision will be left up to commissioner Rob Manfred’s discretion. The widespread expectation has been that Chapman will face some form of repercussion — likely in the form of a suspension — although the fact that no arrest was made and no charges have been filed seems likely to work in his favor to some extent.
Earlier this offseason, the Dodgers backed out of a trade to acquire Chapman, reportedly in large part due to the emergence of these allegations. The Yankees acquired Chapman from the Reds several weeks later for a package of infielder Eric Jagielo, right-hander Rookie Davis, right-hander Caleb Cotham and infielder Tony Renda.
2016 Arbitration Filing Numbers
MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s noon deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.
As MLBTR has previously explained, 156 players officially filed for arbitration (after some eligible and tendered players had already reached agreement). Of those, 34 players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still reach agreements before their hearings (which will take place between February 1st and 21st). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint.
We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining — those where the player files for at least $4.5MM — in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker (with two as-yet-unreported exceptions).
- Jake Arrieta, Cubs: $13MM versus $7.5MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
- Aroldis Chapman, Yankees: $13.1MM versus $9MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays: $11.8MM versus $11.35MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Neil Walker, Mets: $11.8MM versus $9.4MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
- J.D. Martinez, Tigers: $8MM versus $6MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Trevor Plouffe, Twins: $7.95MM versus $7MM (Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, via Twitter)
- Zach Britton, Orioles: $7.9MM versus $5.6MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
- Brandon Belt, Giants: $7.5MM versus $5.3MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Lucas Duda, Mets: $7.4MM versus $5.9MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Garrett Richards, Angels: $7.1MM versus $5.3MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Mike Moustakas, Royals: $7MM versus $4.2MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
- Nate Eovaldi, Yankees: $6.3MM versus $4.9MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Mitch Moreland, Rangers: $6MM versus $4.675MM (Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, via Twitter)
- Kevin Jepsen, Twins: $5.4MM versus $5.05MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Jason Castro, Astros: $5.25MM versus $5MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Jeurys Familia, Mets: $4.8MM versus $3.3MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
- Ivan Nova, Yankees: $4.6MM versus $3.8MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
Arbitration Breakdown: Aroldis Chapman, Mark Melancon, Kenley Jansen
Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.
As young fireballers have gotten more opportunity to close, more arbitration cases with few comparables have emerged. Last year, I wrote about such a foursome of closers who had reached second-year arbitration eligibility, and this year I am writing about two of those closers, Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, along with Mark Melancon (who I wrote about separately last year). My arbitration model projects each of these pitchers to get raises between $4MM and $4.85MM this winter, each of which would break Jim Johnson‘s current record of a $3.88MM raise for a third-year eligible closer.
Depending on how different statistics are weighed, they all have a compelling case to break this record. Johnson’s $3.88MM raise came after he had a 2.49 ERA and 51 saves in 68 2/3 innings, but Johnson struck out just 41 batters that season. He also only had 72 total saves at that point in his career. Although pre-platform performances generally do not matter outside of first-time-eligible arbitration salaries, one large exception I have found is career saves for closers. It is clear that having a history of being a closer matters, which means that Chapman’s 146 career saves, Melancon’s 121 saves, and Jansen’s 142 saves will all help them have better arbitration cases than Johnson did with 72 career saves.
Melancon also had 51 platform-year saves, matching Johnson’s 51 in his platform year in 2012. Along with his 2.23 ERA in 76 2/3 innings, he should have little trouble topping Johnson’s $3.88MM raise after his 2.49 ERA in 68 2/3 innings. Melancon’s $4.6MM projected raise seems about right.
Although Chapman only had 33 platform-year saves, his 1.63 ERA and aforementioned 146 career saves have led him to get an even bigger projected raise than Melancon. His projection actually slightly exceeded the Kimbrel Rule maximum, which is why he is projected for $12.9MM instead of the $13MM figure that was actually forecast by the model. In spite of the lower platform-year save total, Chapman’s vastly superior ERA and greater bulk of career saves give fair reason to assume he will probably get a bigger raise than Melancon, whose case is a straightforward improvement over Jim Johnson’s 2013 case. Both pitchers are likely to get raises between $4MM and $4.85MM.
Kenley Jansen is projected to land a $4MM raise, which would just barely top Johnson’s record. Jansen had 36 platform-year saves, but 142 career saves, so he has fewer platform-year saves but almost double Johnson’s career saves. His platform-year ERA (2.41) is a bit better than Johnson’s was, although it came in fewer innings (52 1/3 versus 68 2/3) due to the fact that Jansen opened the season on the disabled list with a foot injury. I could see Jansen failing to make the case that he should get a larger raise than Johnson did, although if Melancon or Chapman set new records, he could easily argue that those are more applicable comparisons.
It is difficult to find pitchers other than Johnson that would apply to this trio of players. Jose Valverde had 44 platform-year saves going into his 2009 case, in which he earned $3.3MM, and he did have 142 career saves. However, his ERA was 3.38. A year prior to that, Francisco Rodriguez had a $2.95MM raise with similar numbers, but that case would be even more stale than Valverde’s. Joel Hanrahan got a $2.94MM raise with 36 saves going into his 2013 case, but he only had 96 career saves at that point. Johnson’s case against appears more applicable for all three of these closers.
Each of these three players could set the market for each other, so their raises are likely to be highly interdependent. They are also likely to set the market for future closers, now that more players will presumably reach their third year of arbitration eligibility with a career of closing behind them. I think that my model probably has appropriately guessed their salaries for 2016, but if it is wrong, it will probably be either too high on all three, or too low on all three.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Quick Hits: Bettis, Suspensions, Lazarito, Trades, Frazier
Since the Rockies are lacking in frontline pitching, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post predicts that right-hander Chad Bettis will emerge as the team’s “quasi-ace” in 2016. Youngster Jon Gray is still adapting to the bigs and Jorge De La Rosa‘s age and injury history make him a question mark, and if De La Rosa does pitch well, he may end up leaving in a deadline trade. That leaves the 26-year-old Bettis perhaps in the best position to become Colorado’s top starter. The righty posted a 4.23 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 2.33 K/BB rate and 49.3% grounder rate over 115 innings last season, his first extended taste of Major League action. There’s a lot to like about Bettis’ potential, though time will tell if he can consistently produce in the notoriously hitter-friendly Coors Field. Here’s more from around baseball…
- Major League Baseball will likely announce any discipline for Aroldis Chapman, Yasiel Puig and Jose Reyes before Spring Training camps open and no later than March 1, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter links). The three players all face possible suspensions for recent domestic violence incidents, as per the Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy instituted by MLB and the MLBPA last August. The league’s rulings will be closely watched as possible precedent-setters under this new policy. As Rosenthal notes, the policy doesn’t set any minimum or maximum penalties, and it also doesn’t state whether a suspended player would still be eligible to play during Spring Training.
- Sixteen-year-old Cuban outfielder Lazaro Armenteros held a showcase for scouts on January 8th and “early returns…have been mixed at best,” ESPN.com’s Eric Longenhagen tweets. Several sources described Armenteros as “unable to play center field” and “too muscular & stiff,” though he did receive a very good grade of between 6-7 (based on the scouting grading scale of 2-8) on his running. Between 150-200 scouts were expected to attend his showcase, and one veteran scout even cited such names as Willie Mays and Bo Jackson to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale last month in terms of comparable power and speed, though the caveat that Armenteros was still quite “young and raw” in his ability. There has been quite a bit of speculation about the phenom known as “Lazarito,” as this was the first time MLB scouts had been able to see him in any sort of baseball activity since the summer of 2014. It isn’t yet known if Lazarito will be cleared to sign with a Major League team during this international signing period or the next (which begins on July 2).
- “Nobody wants to do a small trade. They only want to talk about big trades,” an executive tells ESPN’s Buster Olney (Twitter link). This observation about the current trade market is followed up by Olney in his latest subscription-only column, as he notes that teams are looking to acquire big-name players now since the next two free agent markets are pretty thin on elite talent. As such, Olney lists several big names that executives feel could be major trade targets this summer.
- The White Sox made the single biggest position upgrade of any team this offseason when they dealt for Todd Frazier, MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell writes. Using the Steamer projection system, third base for the White Sox projects to improve by 3.5 WAR from its sub-replacement total in 2015. While Frazier is a fine player, this may be more an indictment of Chicago’s long-time struggles at the hot corner. as Cassavell notes that White Sox third basemen have a cumulative -0.5 WAR over the last five seasons.
Latest On Marlins’ Rotation Search
The Marlins still hope to add a starting pitcher to their rotation and have internally discussed some potential bargain options such as Doug Fister, Cliff Lee and Edwin Jackson, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. Jackson adds a wrinkle to the Marlins’ reported attempt at acquiring Aroldis Chapman (before his trade to the Yankees), noting that the team had considered inserting Chapman into its rotation.
All three of the free agents listed by Jackson are probably in line for one-year deals. As a four-time All-Star and former Cy Young winner, the 37-year-old Lee comes with the highest ceiling but also quite a bit of risk after missing the 2015 season with a torn flexor tendon. He’s reportedly seeking a one-year deal with a winning team as he attempts to revive his career.
Fister was one of the game’s more underrated pitchers from 2011-14, when he posted a 3.11 ERA with 6.5 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9 in 750 2/3 innings with the Mariners, Tigers and Nationals. However, 2015 was a much different tale, as Fister’s average fastball velocity dipped from about 89 mph to 86 mph. The diminished heater undoubtedly contributed to what was the worst full season of Fister’s career; the 31-year-old (32 in February) logged a 4.60 ERA across 15 starts before losing his rotation spot and experiencing better results in the bullpen.
As for Jackson, he’s coming off a disappointing tenure with the Cubs. Signed to a four-year, $52MM contract prior to the 2013 season, Jackson posted a 5.58 ERA in 316 innings out of the Cubs’ rotation in his first two seasons in Chicago. In 2015, he quietly rebounded in the bullpen, pitching to a 3.07 ERA with 6.5 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 in 54 2/3 innings between the Cubs and Braves. It’s been quiet on the Jackson front this offseason, but he’ll presumably receive interest both as a reliever and as a starter following his solid bullpen work between Chicago and Atlanta. If he does prefer to reestablish himself as a starter — and at 32, there’s plenty of time for that — Miami seemingly wouldn’t be a bad place to take a shot. Marlins Park has been a pitcher-friendly environment since opening in 2012, although the Marlins are altering the dimensions this offseason, which could remove some of the pitchers’ advantage. Jackson would be a low-cost addition for any club that signed him, as he’s still owed $13MM from the Cubs this season, so he’d only cost a club the league minimum and a roster spot.
Heyman On Cespedes, Parra, Davis
There could be more great star free agents still available as we head into the New Year than ever before, in the estimation of CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman. The question now is – where will they land? Here’s the latest from Heyman:
- Angels owner Arte Moreno has indicated that he’s not going to make a major free agent splash between now and Opening Day, but Heyman hears that the Halos have been in contact with Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton and perhaps Alex Gordon as well. It’s not clear how serious they are about signing one of the three, however.
- Gerardo Parra is said to have “seven or eight” teams in on him and the Rockies are in “serious” pursuit. Colorado has been considering trades involving Carlos Gonzalez and their other outfielders, so a Parra signing could be a part of a serious outfield overhaul for them. Parra slashed .291/.328/.452 in 2015 and he boasts a strong reputation as a defensive outfielder, though his fielding statistics took a big step backward last season. The Royals are also known to have interest.
- When asked about free agent slugger Chris Davis, one person connected to the Astros said the player is “not in our plans.” Davis would be a strong fit for Houston, in theory, but he is out of their price range. The 29-year-old Davis is the top power bat on the open market, as he has led the Majors in homers over the past three seasons.
- When approached, the Yankees asked the Astros for Lance McCullers Jr. in exchange for Andrew Miller, and Houston quickly rebuffed that attempt. The Yankees are seeking a No. 1 pitcher in order to part with Miller, so it seems unlikely that he’ll go anywhere.
- Word is that new Yankees reliever Aroldis Chapman is unlikely to serve a lengthy suspension for his alleged domestic violence incident. Heyman reasons that the Bombers wouldn’t have made the deal if they felt that Chapman was in store for a long ban.
- The Padres still need a shortstop but one person with Padres connections wondered whether an investment of “$60MM to $70MM” (his estimate) made sense for them given that they are not expected to contend this year. However, Heyman notes that president Mike Dee and GM A.J. Preller are aggressive and they might not want to pass up on the chance to ink a player like Desmond at a sensible number. Heyman also IDs the Rockies and White Sox as dark horse teams for Desmond.
- The Cardinals were another club that downplayed the possibility of a major move, but GM John Mozeliak went out and signed Mike Leake after publicly stating that he wasn’t going to make any “dynamic” moves. Could they have another significant move in store? Heyman has heard buzz that the Cards may also be looking again at a big bat at first or in the outfield.
- When asked about the possibility of Cespedes, one Nationals-connected person said, “Probably not, at least not at the moment.” That doesn’t make a signing likely by any means, but it also doesn’t rule out a pursuit.
- There are still “about six to seven teams involved” when it comes to Cespedes, Heyman writes.
- The Dodgers are still looking around after signing Scott Kazmir, so they are not out on Japanese star Kenta Maeda. The Yankees, meanwhile, can be crossed off the list as they are not interested. Maeda, 28 in April, is widely considered to be one of the best pitchers in Japan. He just wrapped up a season in which he pitched to a 2.09 ERA with 7.6 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 across 206 1/3 innings, marking his sixth consecutive season with an earned run average of 2.60 or better.
- Marlins president president David Samson contends that owner Jeffrey Loria still has “no interest” in selling the club.
Quick Hits: Shapiro, Kendrick, Chapman, Parra
Mark Shapiro’s tenure as president of the Blue Jays hasn’t exactly been met with a full embrace by the team’s fans, but he tells John Lott of the National Post that he’s focused on the job at hand rather than worrying about criticism. “I think it’s just inefficient for me to spend a lot of time and energy on that,” says Shapiro. “What I think fans ultimately want is for me to work for this team and make it as good as it can possibly be. If I spend my energy worrying about how to be popular, it’ll be time away from doing the job. That’s not what I’m going to do.” The piece offers a lengthy and interesting look at the veteran executive, and is well worth a full read.
Here are a few more stray notes from around the game:
- When asked about free agent second baseman Howie Kendrick today, Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi said that the organization “feel[s] pretty set” at the position at this point, as Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets. The Dodgers will utilize Chase Utley and Kike Hernandez there, he said, indicating that there’s little reason for the club to pursue a reunion with Kendrick. Otherwise, per Zaidi, the team could still add another starter and is “still evaluating” its options in the bullpen (via J.P. Hoornstra of the Los Angeles News Group, on Twitter).
- Zaidi also addressed the Dodgers‘ reported deal with the Reds for Aroldis Chapman, via another Shaikin tweet. Los Angeles wasn’t “comfortable making the move” and “moved on” after allegations of a domestic dispute involving Chapman surfaced.
- Unsurprisingly, Gerardo Parra is expected to wait to sign until the top of the outfield market sheds some names, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports tweets. He is still drawing interest from the Royals, Nationals, Giants, and Angels, per the report.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post takes a broader look at the outfield market and wonders what teams could be readying to spring. The Nats top his list, followed by four AL clubs: the White Sox, Orioles, Tigers, and Angels. I agree with Sherman’s assessment that the market will still likely pay these players, as I recently wrote. As an anonymous GM told Sherman: “You will have some owners soon say, ‘Wow, we can have this guy rather than what we have now.’ That is when the aggressiveness comes back in.”
NL East Notes: Zimmerman, Howard, Chapman, Murphy, Kazmir, Span
The attorneys for first basemen Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals and Ryan Howard of the Phillies have sent letters to Al Jazeera demanding that the news agency publicly retract its report suggesting that the two players have used banned PEDs, Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post reports. The spark for the demand appears to have been a correction to the article accompanying the documentary at the Al Jazeera web site, in which editors noted: “An earlier version of this article reported on an allegation about possible links between Ryan Zimmerman and Ryan Howard and human growth hormone. The substance alleged was Delta 2, not HGH.”
MLBTR has obtained a copy of the demand for retraction, which states: “Tuesday, Al Jazeera tried sneaking out a correction which acknowledges major errors in their story about our clients Ryan Zimmerman and Ryan Howard. The original defamatory ‘report’ connected our clients to the use of HGH, but Al Jazeera has now admitted this defamatory accusation was wholly false and unsubstantiated. Al Jazeera’s acknowledgment confirms their unforgivable sloppiness and the recklessness of its publication of this false story. Al Jazeera must retract the remaining false allegations against our clients immediately.” As Svrluga notes, such a demand letter can be a prerequisite to bringing suit for defamation in some jurisdictions.
Here are some notes from around the NL East:
- The Marlins tried to acquire ace closer Aroldis Chapman from the Reds before he was shipped off to the Yankees, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. But Miami was obviously unwilling to beat the offer put forth by New York. Still, it’s interesting to learn of the effort. Despite dabbling in some rather significant potential transactions, the Fish have yet to pull off any major moves this winter.
- Daniel Murphy turned down a four-year offer because he preferred the Nationals‘ chances at contention, James Wagner of the Washington Post reports. It’s not clear, of course, precisely what difference in the overall dollar amounts would have been involved.
- Signing Murphy and Stephen Drew — to go with the flurry of bullpen additions earlier this winter — doesn’t necessarily wrap up the Nationals‘ offseason business, of course. Wagner explains that the team is still considering changes in the pitching department. The team “has interest” in free agent lefty Scott Kazmir, per the report. Washington could consider looking for a good market opportunity, says Wagner, but the team would likely deal another starter (he suggests Gio Gonzalez) to address another need if a rotation piece is added. And, of course, the club is still listening and considering its options at the back of the bullpen.
- The Nationals have also long been said to be pursuing an addition in the outfield, particularly one capable of spending time in center. I ran through some of the many options back in November, and Wagner takes an updated look in the above-linked piece. As he explains, though, none of the obviously available options makes for a perfect fit. It’s no surprise to hear that the team is “working” to add such a piece after the Murphy signing, as Jon Morosi of FOX Sports recently tweeted.
- Having already added a center field-capable player of their own in Alejandro De Aza, the Mets won’t be present when Denard Span works out for teams, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports on Twitter. That is not terribly surprising to learn at this point, of course. It’s worth noting, also, that Wagner’s report includes a note that, while the Nationals haven’t ruled out a return, there is some internal concern over Span’s health.
Reactions To And Effects Of The Aroldis Chapman Trade
Earlier today, the Yankees made a drastic move to upgrade the bullpen, acquiring Aroldis Chapman from the Reds in exchange for a four-player package including third baseman Eric Jagielo, right-hander Rookie Davis, right-hander Caleb Cotham and second baseman Tony Renda. Given the domestic abuse allegations surrounding Chapman and the Yankees’ newfound bulk of elite relievers, there are no shortage of reactions to to this move. Here are some of the early reaction pieces and ripple effects from the trade…
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman spoke to the media shortly after the trade was announced and said his “intent” is to hang onto Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances, using both in conjunction with Chapman at the back of the bullpen (via ESPN New York’s Wallace Matthews). Wallace notes that Cashman could eventually change course and move Miller, perhaps in a trade for a controllable starter (while also shedding some payroll), though Cashman himself gave no indication of such a scenario playing out. The YES Network’s Jack Curry, in fact, tweets that Cashman said he called Miller shortly after the news broke and said he intends to keep all three relievers.
- As MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch writes, Cashman said the Yankees did as much due diligence as possible in looking into Chapman’s legal troubles and the possible suspension he faces from commissioner Rob Manfred under MLB’s new domestic violence policy. Cashman somewhat delicately noted that the asking price on Chapman has been “modified” in light of the allegations — that is to say, it has dropped significantly — which led the Yankees to make the acquisition. Said Cashman: “Certainly there are some serious issues here that are in play. I think it’s certainly reflected in some of the acquisition price. There’s risk, and I understand that. … We’ve done as much due diligence on the subject at hand as we possibly can, and we’ve completed the transaction based on a lot of that due diligence.”
- Just how much has the price dropped? Joel Sherman of the New York Post hears that the Reds wanted Aaron Judge and one of Luis Severino or Gary Sanchez at the trade deadline. Sherman also looks atáthe reasons for the Yankees’ pursuit of Chapman in spite of the allegations, noting that the trade creates a potentially historic bullpen trio, helps to protect a fragile rotation, preserves the Yankees’ top prospects and changes the narrative that the team is not spending this offseason in an effort to win now. (Although, the trade certainly creates the opportunity to launch a far less flattering narrative.) Owner Hal Steinbrenner offered the following comment when asked by Sherman: “I approved the trade after significant thought and research, as I do with any significant trade.”
- Within his piece, Sherman notes that a suspension is most likely forthcoming for Chapman, but it will probably be “more in the 10-25 game range” than the 40-plus games that would cost Chapman his shot at free agency next winter. (Chapman currently has five years, 34 days of MLB service, meaning that if he misses 46 days of the regular season, he’d fall shy of six years of service and miss out on free agency eligibility.)
- The Yankees have built a laughably good bullpen on paper, writes Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan, who notes that the Steamer projection system now forecasts that the Yankees will have far and away the game’s best bullpen in terms of wins above replacement. However, he also notes that the upgrade might not be quite as drastic as some would think, because while Chapman comes with quite a bit of name value, the actual difference between him and lefty Justin Wilson, who departed in a trade after an excellent season, isn’t as stark as many might expect.
- ESPN’s Keith Law writes (Insider subscription required) that the Reds “must have wanted to get rid” of Chapman, because the package they received isn’t exactly inspiring. Law calls the package “all quantity but little quality,” noting that Davis has the chance to be an average MLB starter (roughly a No. 4 starter, he specifies) and Cotham can pitch in the bullpen right now. Jagielo will hit for some power but can’t play third base, in Law’s estimation, and has plenty of injury issues. The Reds didn’t get enough for a player of Chapman’s caliber, Law opines, but he also feels that the Yankees are sending the wrong message by acquiring a player with Chapman’s allegations hanging over his head.
- The Reds aren’t done trading after this move, president of baseball operations Walt Jocketty told reporters, including C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Jocketty said that the Reds will make more moves “if we can,” and he wouldn’t close the door on potentially trading Brandon Phillips even after the veteran invoked his no-trade clause to block a move to the Nationals earlier this month. (Jocketty did note that it’s likely Phillips will be with the team in 2016, though, adding that he hasn’t spoken to him since the failed Nationals trade.) The trade highlights Jocketty’s desire to add players that are reasonably close to the Major Leagues, Rosecrans writes, as each has already seen action at the Double-A level or higher. “That’s what I’m looking for. I want guys that can help us the next year or two,” said Jocketty. “I told our guys when we were researching different clubs that it’s nice to have guys who are long-range prospects, but we need guys in the next couple of years and that’s why we’re looking more for Double-A and Triple-A guys.” Cotham will probably pitch for the Reds in 2016, Jocketty said, and Jagielo, too, could be with the team next season, even if he has to do so in a bench capacity initially.
- The Yankees are, in some ways, emulating the model that the Royals rode to a championship, writes Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post. The team now boasts a three-headed bullpen monster that rivals Kansas City’s trio of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland, and they’re also prioritizing young, up-the-middle players that can improve their defense (notably, he points out recent acquisitions of Aaron Hicks and Didi Gregorius). The Yankees differ from Kansas City in the sense that their powerhouse bullpen was constructed largely via financial muscle, but the parallels, at least, are there in some regards.
- Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com have updated the list of the Reds’ Top 30 prospects to include both Davis and Jagielo, who rank eighth and ninth, respectively, among Cincinnati farmhands in their eyes.
Yankees Acquire Aroldis Chapman
After months of trying to add a third dominant reliever to their bullpen, the Yankees on Monday announced the acquisition of left-hander Aroldis Chapman from the Reds in exchange for a quartet of minor leaguers. Third baseman Eric Jagielo will head to Cincinnati, as will second baseman Tony Renda and right-handers Rookie Davis and Caleb Cotham. Chapman will presumably slide into the Yankees’ closer role, combining with fellow southpaw Andrew Miller and right-hander Dellin Betances to create perhaps the most formidable bullpen trio in all of Major League Baseball next season.
Chapman, 27, is arguably baseball’s best relief pitcher, but he comes with significant off-field baggage in the form of domestic violence allegations that ultimately halted a trade to the Dodgers from being finalized earlier this month. Chapman is currently being investigated by the league, and there’s a very real chance that he’ll serve some form of suspension from commissioner Rob Manfred under the league’s newly implemented domestic violence policy. What type of suspension is up to Manfred, though as many have pointed out, there are service time implications in any suspension that could impact Chapman’s free agency; if Chapman misses more than 45 days of the regular season due to suspension, he’ll fall shy of reaching six years of Major League service, which would prevent him from becoming a free agent next winter. A suspension would also lessen the financial commitment for Chapman in 2016; MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz currently projects the lefty to earn $12.9MM in 2016 after earning $8.05MM in 2015.
Strictly looking at Chapman’s on-field resumé, the results are astounding. In 2015, he worked to a 1.63 ERA with 15.7 K/9, 4.5 BB/9 and a 37.1 percent ground-ball rate. Over the past four seasons in Cincinnati, the Cuban-born phenom has delivered an exceptional 1.90 ERA while averaging 16.1 strikeouts and 3.8 walks per nine innings to go along with an average of 36 saves per season. Chapman is known for his blistering fastball; the left-hander averaged 100.3 mph on his heater in 2014 and followed that up with a similarly incredulous 99.5 mph average this past season. His addition could free the Yankees to trade Miller or Betances, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post hears that the team’s initial plan is to keep all three in an effort to effectively shorten games to six-inning affairs (Twitter link). That’s a bit hyperbolic in nature, of course, but probably not as much as skeptics might think; as MLB.com’s Andrew Simon points out (on Twitter), the Yankees now possess the pitchers with the three highest strikeout percentages in all of baseball from 2014-15 in Chapman (46.3 percent), Miller (41.6 percent) and Betances (39.5 percent).
That trio will be important for a Yankees team that is rife with uncertainty in the rotation. The club’s starting five currently projects as Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi and CC Sabathia. (Ivan Nova could be in the mix as well, though he is reportedly being shopped.) Tanaka pitched through a small tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow in 2015, while Pineda has a long history of shoulder issues and Sabathia struggled through knee injuries before ending the season in rehab for alcohol abuse. Even Severino, who was dominant in his rookie showing, has never thrown more than last season’s 161 2/3 innings in a single season. The ability to shorten games with an elite bullpen triumvirate would lessen the expectations placed on what looks to be a potentially shaky rotation.
The Reds will be adding two minor leaguers from the Yankees’ second tier of prospects (Jagielo and Davis) in addition to a pair of prospects that didn’t crack the Top 30 lists of either MLB.com or Baseball America (Cotham, Renda; hat tip to BA’s John Manuel, on Twitter). BA considers Davis the best of the bunch, having recently ranked him sixth in the Yankees’ farm system. MLB.com, meanwhile, has Jagielo sixth and Davis rated 10th.
Jagielo, 23, was selected in the first round of the 2013 draft out of Notre Dame. A knee injury that required arthroscopic surgery shortened his 2015 season, but when he was healthy, he batted .284/.347/.495 with nine homers in 58 games/248 plate appearances at the Double-A level. MLB.com’s scouting report notes that Jagielo is strong and has “good loft in his swing,” giving him the ability to drive the ball to all fields. His penchant for strikeouts (23.3 percent in 2015; 24.4 percent in 2014) is a red flag, but MLB.com notes that he draws enough walks to post sound OBP numbers even if his batting average is lackluster. The question surrounding Jagielo is whether he’ll stay at third base or move across the diamond to first, as questions about his range and arm strength are oft-cited strikes against him. Despite those potential issues, MLB.com did rate him as the No. 7 third-base prospect in the game.
As for Davis, Norris notes in his scouting report over at BA that alterations to his delivery led to a breakout of sorts in 2015. Davis pitched to a combined 3.86 ERA with 8.9 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 in in 130 2/3 innings between Class-A Advanced and Double-A. The mechanical changes resulted in increased velocity, per Norris, who writes that Davis sits 93 to 95 mph with his heater — a pitch that is complemented by a sharp mid-70s curve and a low-80s changeup. BA indicates that he could be a mid-rotation starter, while MLB.com notes that he has good control but spotty command (i.e. throws strikes but doesn’t command the pitches within the strike zone) and could be best suited for a relief role, where his velocity could approach triple digits.
The Yankees acquired Renda, 24, from the Nationals this past season in exchange for right-hander David Carpenter. The fleet-footed infielder batted .269/.330/.358 in 532 Double-A plate appearances between the two organizations, adding three homers and 23 steals (in 29 attempts). Renda rated 12th among Nationals farmhands last season and was 22nd on MLB.com’s Top 30 at the time of the trade to the Yankees in early June. BA praised his compact swing and line-drive stroke in last winter’s scouting report, noting that his bat has a chance to be above-average, and he’s tough to strike out. He’s drawn praise for his makeup and work ethic as well, and last offseason Fangraphs’ scouting report praised his advanced bat control while noting that he lacked power.
Cotham, who turned 28 in November, made his big league debut with the Yankees this past season but struggled, yielding seven runs on 14 hits (four homers) and a walk with 11 strikeouts in 9 2/3 innings. That 11-to-1 K/BB ratio is encouraging, however, as is the 1.74 ERA that Cotham recorded in 31 innings at the Triple-A level, where he struck out 30 batters and walked just five. Cotham worked exclusively out of the bullpen between Double-A and Triple-A in 2015, totaling a 2.21 ERA with 9.6 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9. He could potentially step directly into the Reds’ bullpen, where he’d bring a fastball that averaged 92.6 mph in his brief big league tenure this past season.
Ultimately, the Reds added mid-level prospects and an MLB-ready bullpen arm in exchange for one year of the game’s best closer, it would seem. While the return is somewhat disappointing in a vacuum, it’s clear that Chapman’s domestic violence allegations rightly lowered the asking price and prevented Cincinnati from maximizing his value in a trade. It’s easy to speak now with the benefit of hindsight, but the reported offer of Braden Shipley plus a pair of other Top 10 prospects from the Diamondbacks in July does appear to be a stronger package than the one received by Cincinnati today. However, with the reason for Cincinnati’s reduced leverage in trade talks being entirely out of the team’s control, it’s not fair to simply state that they should have taken that deal. Jose Peraza, after all, was said to be heading to the Reds from the Dodgers as part of the trade package with L.A. before Chapman’s off-field issues derailed those discussions.
For the Reds, who have also traded Todd Frazier this winter (in a trade that was met with lukewarm reviews, at best, for Cincinnati’s return), the Chapman trade seems unlikely to spell the end of their offseason rebuilding efforts. Cincinnati has also attempted to move second baseman Brandon Phillips, though he reportedly elected not to waive his no-trade protection to approve a deal to the Nationals. Right fielder Jay Bruce is also no stranger to trade rumors, either, and could see his name circulate on the rumor mill with increased frequency as the Reds seek to stockpile more young talent.
Baseball America’s Josh Norris first reported that the two teams were nearing a trade (Twitter link). Jack Curry of the YES Network reported that a trade involving Chapman was close (Twitter link) and later tweeted that four minor leaguers were going to Cincinnati. Norris reported Davis’ inclusion in the deal (Twitter link). FOX’s Ken Rosenthal tweeted that the agreement as in place.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.