Latest On Dylan Cease
6:10PM: Per a report from Jon Heyman of The New York Post, rival clubs have indicated that the White Sox are “pulling back” in negotiations regarding Cease. Heyman goes on to suggest that there’s a good chance Cease is still dealt at some point this offseason, and that Chicago is likely waiting to see which Yamamoto suitors miss out on the NPB ace before reengaging in discussions on their prized right-hander.
1:23PM: White Sox righty Dylan Cease has been one of the most oft-discussed names at this week’s Winter Meetings, but Chicago’s asking price on the right-hander remains quite high and — at least to this point — prohibitive. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reports that the Sox asked the Reds for pitching prospects Rhett Lowder and Chase Petty in addition to two position-player prospects, for instance. Lowder was the No. 7 overall pick in the 2023 draft and currently ranks as baseball’s No. 45 prospect at Baseball America. Petty is the former first-rounder the Reds acquired from the Twins in their 2022 Sonny Gray trade.
Given the lofty ask, it’s not especially surprising that Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic casts doubt on whether Cincinnati would actually meet Chicago’s demand in the end. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer adds that the Reds have also inquired on Guardians righty Shane Bieber and Rays righty Tyler Glasnow, but they’re somewhat wary of the recent health issues for both. That’s not an issue with the durable Cease, who’s started more games than any pitcher in baseball over the past four seasons.
The Reds, of course, are far from the only team interested in acquiring Cease, who’s drawn interest from the Braves, Orioles and Cardinals (even after their trio of free agent signings), among others. The Dodgers were also linked to Cease last month, and Russell Dorsey of Bally Sports reports that even as L.A. has aggressively courted Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, they’ve also been actively involved in Cease talks throughout the Winter Meetings.
Dorsey adds that the Sox have been eyeing pitching in return packages for Cease, but the Dodgers aren’t willing to include young right-hander Bobby Miller in a potential package for Cease. Los Angeles has plenty of other arms to dangle, but Miller posted a 3.76 ERA with impressive strikeout and walk rates in 124 1/3 innings for the Dodgers as a rookie this past season. Miller entered the 2023 season as one of the game’s top-ranked prospects, and between that prospect billing and his strong debut effort, it’s wholly unsurprising that the Dodgers aren’t inclined to move him in a deal for Cease (or, likely, for just about any potential trade target).
Both the Reds and Dodgers stand as natural trade partners for Cease. Cincinnati has plenty of young talent (e.g. Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Brandon Williamson, Graham Ashcraft) but is lacking in more established big leaguers beyond the recently signed Nick Martinez. The Dodgers, meanwhile, will have Walker Buehler on an innings limit in his first full season back from his second career Tommy John surgery. Clayton Kershaw is a free agent and will miss at least half the 2024 season after undergoing shoulder surgery. Dustin May (flexor surgery, Tommy John revision) and Tony Gonsolin (Tommy John surgery) are also expected to miss some or all of the ’24 campaign.
Cease, 27, is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $8.8MM in 2024 and is controllable via arbitration through the 2025 season. He finished second in American League Cy Young voting to Justin Verlander after notching 184 innings of 2.20 ERA ball with a 30.4% strikeout rate against a 10.4% walk rate. The 2023 season saw Cease’s ERA more than double to 4.58, but his strikeout rate (27.4%) remained strong and his 10.1% walk rate was right in line with the prior season. He lost about a mile per hour off his fastball and allowed more hard contact in previous seasons, with his home run rate and average on balls in play both increasing substantially.
Down year notwithstanding, Cease is among the most talented pitchers on the trade market and rival teams are surely intrigued by the idea of a change of scenery that gets him out of the White Sox’ homer-friendly stadium and away from their porous defense. As far as high-end arms on the trade market, he’s also one of very few available with multiple seasons of club control. Each of Bieber, Glasnow and perhaps Corbin Burnes is available for the right offer, but all three members of that trio will reach free agency following the 2024 campaign.
Dodgers Notes: Muncy, Rotation, Thor
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters today (including Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times) that he expects infielder Max Muncy to return to the lineup at third base for Tuesday’s game against the Rockies in Denver. J.P. Hoornstra of The Orange County Register adds that the club will wait to see how Muncy feels following Tuesday’s game before determining whether or not he’s ready to play on back-to-back days.
Muncy’s return figures to provide a huge boost to a beleaguered Dodgers club that’s been outscored 44-29 since he last played on June 11. While the 32-year-old slugger has hit above the Mendoza line just once in the past four seasons, his overall slash line of .214/.342/.450 is good for a wRC+ that’s 18% better than league average during that time frame. That’s thanks to Muncy sporting a combination of power and plate discipline that stands among the game’s best. Since joining the Dodgers in 2018, Muncy ranks 4th in the NL in both walk rate (15.4%) and home runs (157). Michael Busch has held down the fort at third base while Muncy was on the shelf.
Also set to re-join the club in the coming days is lefty Julio Urias, who Hoornstra notes is expected to return to the club during next weekend’s series in Kansas City. A free agent at season’s end, Urias will look to improve upon the uncharacteristic 4.39 ERA and 5.30 FIP he posted across his first 11 starts of the season prior to hitting the injured list. Urias figures to be among the top free agents available this offseason behind Shohei Ohtani, even after his struggles to start the season, given his pedigree as a hurler with a career ERA of 2.95 who won’t turn 27 until August.
Hoornstra adds that, according to Roberts, young right-handers Emmet Sheehan and Bobby Miller both figure to remain in the rotation even after Urias is activated. Roberts heaped praise on the pair of youngsters, describing their performance at the big league level so far as “100th percentile” when it comes to handling the opportunity to pitch in the majors. Entering play today, Sheehan has posted a 1.50 ERA across two starts with the club while Miller has impressed to the tune of a 2.83 ERA in five starts.
That figures to leave right-hander Noah Syndergaard without a job in the rotation going forward. As noted by Hoornstra, the right-hander threw three simulated innings prior to today’s game against the Astros, without being hindered by the blister that sent him to the 15-day IL earlier this month. That being said, Roberts described Syndergaard’s session today as simply “checking a box” for the right-hander, adding that “we’re still a ways away” from Syndergaard returning to the active roster. After signing a one-year deal with the Dodgers this past winter, Syndergaard has struggled badly with a 7.16 ERA in 55 1/3 innings of work.
NL West Notes: Suter, Wacha, Sheehan
The Rockies placed left-hander Brent Suter on the 15-day injured list yesterday due to a left oblique strain, and recalled righty Noah Davis from Triple-A in the corresponding move. Suter has posted his typically low strikeout rate and his 8.1% walk rate is barely above league average, but the 33-year-old has nonetheless worked to a 2.81 ERA over 41 2/3 innings out of Colorado’s bullpen. Suter has allowed only two home runs over those 41 2/3 frames, and he has some of the best soft-contact numbers of any pitcher in baseball, sitting in the 99th percentile of hard-hit ball rate and in the 97th percentile of barrel rate.
Losing Suter to the IL is another blow to the injury-riddled Rockies, but the particular timing of the oblique problem adds some doubt to the southpaw’s value as a trade chip. Suter is a free agent after the season, and thus a logical player for the Rockies to shop in what looks like another non-contending season for the club. While oblique injuries can vary greatly in severity, it appears that Suter’s issue is relatively minor, as he told MLB.com that he was still feeling good and was planning to continue playing catch.
More from around the NL West…
- Knuckleballer Matt Waldron will start today’s game for the Padres, as Michael Wacha (the original scheduled starter) will skip a turn in the rotation due to some shoulder fatigue. Manager Bob Melvin described the move as “proactive,” telling the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Jeff Sanders and other reporters that Wacha has “got a little bit of history there with the shoulder. He’s been as good as any pitcher in the National League so this is something we don’t want to push.” Wacha has missed some time with shoulder issues in three of the last four seasons but not any truly significant time, making this seemingly more of a nagging injury than a top-tier concern. Wacha has a 2.90 ERA over 80 2/3 innings for San Diego this season, with a 1.7 fWAR that leads all Padres pitchers. Despite a below-average strikeout rate, Wacha has relied on soft contact and good control to achieve that ERA, and both his changeup and (due to some batted-ball luck) four-seamer have been premium pitches.
- Emmet Sheehan‘s MLB career is off to a tremendous start, as the Dodgers prospect has a 1.50 ERA over his first 12 innings in the Show. Sheehan held the Astros to two runs over six frames in yesterday’s 3-2 Los Angeles victory, earning his first big league win in the process. Unsurprisingly, this success has earned Sheehan a continued look, as Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya) that Sheehan will get another start next week. Julio Urias, Noah Syndergaard, and Dustin May are all on the IL, and while Urias might be back within a week or so, L.A. has had to rely on younger arms to join Clayton Kershaw and Tony Gonsolin in the rotation. Sheehan and Bobby Miller have done well to pick up the slack, while Michael Grove has been less consistent. Roberts said that Grove will work as a bulk pitcher behind an opener on Wednesday, when the Dodgers play the Rockies.
Dodgers Transfer Dustin May To 60-Day Injured List
The Dodgers announced that they have officially selected the contract of pitching prospect Bobby Miller, whose imminent promotion was reported a couple of days ago. Right-hander Tyler Cyr was placed on the 15-day injured list with a shoulder impingement, retroactive to May 21, opening a spot for Miller on the active roster. To make room on the 40-man, righty Dustin May was transferred to the 60-day injured list.
May, 25, left his start on May 17 after throwing just one inning. His injury was later announced as a flexor pronator strain that would keep him out of action for four to six weeks and he was placed on the 15-day injured list the next day. This transfer will extend that timeline slightly, as he now will be ineligible to return until the middle of July. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports that May won’t pick up a baseball for six weeks, after which he’ll be re-evaluated and a plan for the next steps will be formulated.
There will still be time later in the year for May to finish strong but 2023 is going to go down as yet another truncated campaign for the talented righty. He’s appeared in each of the five most recent major league seasons but has yet to log even 60 innings in any individual year. He came up part way through 2019 then the 2020 season was shortened by the pandemic. He lasted just five starts in 2021 before Tommy John surgery put him out of action, with May eventually returning to make six starts late in 2022. He was on track for a full and healthy season here in 2023 but is now on the IL again after taking the ball nine times.
Amid all of those frustrations, he has shown his talent with his results. He has a 3.10 ERA in 191 2/3 innings to this point in his career, striking out 22.5% of batters while walking 7.4% and getting grounders at a 49.9% clip. Unfortunately, as mentioned, that has been scattered across five different seasons due to various factors.
The Dodgers will now have to proceed without May for the next couple of months, which isn’t their only rotation challenge. Julio Urías recently landed on the injured list as well, joining depth starters Michael Grove and Ryan Pepiot. They are also without Clayton Kershaw for the moment, though he is on the bereavement list and could return shortly. There’s also Tony Gonsolin, Noah Syndergaard, Gavin Stone and now Miller jumping into the fray.
Miller has a 100 mph fastball and is generally considered one of the better prospects in baseball, though he’s off to a rough start here in 2023. He has a 5.65 ERA through four Triple-A starts but had a much better 3.38 ERA in his four starts at that level last year. Both Urías and Grove seem like they will be able to return in the near future, which will improve the club’s depth and give them some decisions to make about who stays and who goes.
Dodgers To Select Bobby Miller
The Dodgers are poised to promote one of their top prospects for his major league debut, as Russell Dorsey of Stadium and Bally Sports reports that the club is selecting the contract of right-hander Bobby Miller. The club will need to clear room for Miller on both the 40-man and active rosters ahead of Tuesday night’s game against the Braves, when Miller is poised to make his major league debut.
The 24-year-old Miller was the 29th overall pick in the 2020 draft, selected by the Dodgers in the first round out of the University of Louisville. In his first season of minor league action in 2021, Miller immediately impressed with a 2.40 ERA in 56 1/3 innings split between High-A and Double-A that included a dazzling 47 inning performance at the High-A level. During his time in High-A, Miller posted a microscopic 1.91 ERA with a 29.8% strikeout rate and a walk rate of just 5.9%.
That performance saw Miller become a consensus top 100 prospect headed into the 2022 season, where Miller saw mixed results in 112 1/3 innings split between Double-A and Triple-A. In 91 innings at the Double-A level last season, Miller posted a fantastic 30.5% strikeout rate and a solid 8.1% walk rate, though he struggled in terms of top-line results with a 4.45 ERA during that time. Upon his promotion to Triple-A, Miller largely improved as his strikeout rate ticked up to 32.9% and his walk rate fell to 7.1%, resulting in a 3.38 ERA in 21 1/3 innings. That being said, Miller allowed a whopping four home runs in that short time frame as a whopping 26.7% of his fly balls left the yard.
Miller’s uneven 2022 season did little to impact his prospect rankings, however, as he entered the 2023 as a consensus top 30 prospect in the sport. While his 2023 season has been off to a rocky start so far, with a 5.65 ERA and a strikeout rate of just 19.7% in 14 1/3 innings so far this season, the young right-hander is an incredibly talented prospect who has flashed a triple-digit fastball, making it easy to see why the Dodgers would be interested in getting their young hurler a look in the big leagues. It isn’t clear whether Miller’s first trip to the majors is expected to last beyond Tuesday night’s start, though with Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, Dustin May, Michael Grove, and Ryan Pepiot all on the injured list, it stands to reason that this won’t be Miller’s only opportunity to impact the big league club this season.
Latest On Dodgers’ Pitching Staff
The Dodgers lost Dustin May to a flexor pronator strain yesterday. That injury is expected to sideline him for four to six weeks, leaving a vacancy in the starting five. L.A. manager Dave Roberts addressed the rotation before today’s loss to the Cardinals.
Roberts noted the club was likely to recall top pitching prospect Gavin Stone to take the open rotation spot (Twitter thread via Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). Stone and Michael Grove are the only pitchers to take a start outside of the Dodgers’ expected top five of Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin, Noah Syndergaard and May.
Grove has been on the 15-day injured list for nearly a month thanks to a groin strain. He’s with the club on the taxi squad and could be reinstated within the next few days, although Roberts suggested he was likelier to step into the relief corps immediately. Grove has been throwing in extended Spring Training but hasn’t gone out on a minor league rehab assignment.
Meanwhile, the club provided an unfortunate update on right-hander Ryan Pepiot. The Butler product was expected to take the fifth spot out of camp with Gonsolin opening the year on the IL. He suffered a brutally timed oblique strain at the end of Spring Training, however, sending him to the 60-day IL. Pepiot has still yet to throw from a mound as he continues to battle side soreness, and Roberts indicated he was unlikely to be back until around the All-Star Break (via Harris).
Stone is the logical choice to come back up. He struggled in his major league debut earlier in the season, allowing five runs in four innings. The 24-year-old has been strong for Triple-A Oklahoma City, pitching to a 4.04 ERA with a quality 27.5% strikeout rate over 35 2/3 frames in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.
Alongside Stone, Bobby Miller is one of the sport’s most touted minor league pitchers and has reached Triple-A. He’s made just four starts after being delayed in Spring Training and been tagged for 13 runs in 14 1/3 innings. Unsurprisingly, Roberts suggested the Dodgers want Miller to keep getting reps in Oklahoma City rather than garnering consideration for a short-term call. Miller is not yet on the 40-man roster.
The Dodgers’ Rotation Options If Tony Gonsolin Misses Time
The Dodgers were dealt some undesirable news last week when All-Star starter Tony Gonsolin rolled his left ankle during a pitcher-fielding practice session. He was diagnosed with a sprain and unable to put much weight on the leg for a few days.
Manager Dave Roberts told reporters yesterday that Gonsolin has again started throwing (via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). He’s progressed to long toss from 120 feet but has yet to return to the mound. With Opening Day two weeks out, it seems increasingly likely he’ll require a stint on the 15-day injured list.
If that proves the case, the Dodgers will have to add someone to the season-opening rotation behind Julio Urías, Clayton Kershaw, Noah Syndergaard and Dustin May. Los Angeles doesn’t have the luxury some clubs do of many built-in off days early in the year. They’re scheduled for games in 13 of the first 14 days and 24 of the initial 26 days of the regular season. Unless the club wants to cover some starts via bullpen games, they’ll need a fifth starter if Gonsolin isn’t available.
Likely Front Runners
Ryan Pepiot, 25, two minor league option years remaining
Pepiot seems the favorite for the job. He started seven of his first nine big league games last season, working to a 3.47 ERA over 36 1/3 innings. Pepiot struck out an above-average 26.3% of opponents but his 16.9% walk rate was untenable for a player hoping to stick in a rotation. He showed more serviceable control in the minors, walking 9.8% of batters faced with a lofty 30.9% strikeout rate and a 2.56 ERA in 91 1/3 frames for Triple-A Oklahoma City.
A former third-round pick, Pepiot has developed into one of the better pitching prospects in the sport. The Butler product has a wipeout changeup and plus spin on a fastball that averaged just under 94 MPH last season. Evaluators have expressed trepidation about his breaking ball and especially the consistency of his strike-throwing. Still, he’s an intriguing young pitcher with upper minors success who has shown a decent ability to miss bats early in his time at the big league level. He’s not a finished product but could be capable of providing the Dodgers with a few solid starts in a fill-in capacity.
Michael Grove, 26, two options remaining
A second-round pick in the 2018 draft, Grove overcame some early-career injury concerns to reach the majors last year. He started six of his first seven big league games, posting a 4.60 ERA through 29 1/3 frames. That came with a modest 18% strikeout rate and a lot of hard contact. The 6’3″ righty did a solid job throwing strikes, though, limiting walks to a roughly average 7.5% clip.
Like Pepiot, Grove had a solid 2022 campaign in a hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League setting. He posted a 4.07 ERA in 59 2/3 Triple-A frames, fanning 26.7% of batters faced against an 8.2% walk percentage. Grove held right-handed batters at the top minor league level to a .213/.266/.368 line over 263 plate appearances. Lefties, on the other hand, teed off at a .279/.344/.541 clip in 192 trips to the dish. It was a similar story at the MLB level. Righties hit .241/.293/.389 in his limited look, while left-handers managed a .275/.333/.522 slash.
Grove doesn’t throw a changeup, relying on a fastball/slider/curveball combination. Prospect evaluators have raised questions about his ability to handle left-handed hitters without a pitch that breaks away from them. That has led to concern about whether he can stick in an MLB rotation long term, though the Dodgers could match him up against right-handed heavy teams like Colorado and the Cubs in the season’s first couple weeks.
Top Prospects
Gavin Stone, 24, not yet on 40-man roster
Stone fell to the fifth round in the 2020 draft. That now looks like a coup, as the Central Arkansas product is a top 100 prospect on lists from Baseball America, FanGraphs, The Athletic and ESPN. He’s now the second-best pitching prospect in the organization (more on that in a minute) after an utterly dominant minor league season. Across three levels, he combined for a 1.92 ERA with an elite 33.9% strikeout rate and serviceable 8.9% walk percentage through 121 2/3 frames. That culminated in six Triple-A outings, in which he allowed only six runs over 23 1/3 innings.
It now seems a matter of when, not if, Stone will make his big league debut this season. Evaluators credit the 6’1″ righty with a mid-90s fastball and one of the best changeups in the minor leagues and suggest he could be a mid-rotation arm in the near future. He doesn’t have a ton of Triple-A experience and isn’t yet on the 40-man, so the most straightforward move would be to send him back to Oklahoma City to open the season. Given his minor league dominance, there’s at least an argument for plugging him in above Pepiot and Grove immediately, even if it’d require a 40-man roster move to do so.
Bobby Miller, 23, not yet on 40-man roster
The Dodgers’ first-round pick in that ’20 draft class, Miller has shot through the minor league ranks and now ranks among the best prospects in the sport. The Louisville product had a 4.45 ERA over 20 outings for Double-A Tulsa last season. That’s not the most impressive mark but it seems the product of an unlucky 62.5% strand rate. Miller struck out an excellent 30.5% of opponents, induced grounders at a quality 48.2% clip, and kept his walks to an 8.1% rate. He earned a late-season bump to Oklahoma City, where he posted elite strikeout and ground-ball marks over four outings.
He’s now almost universally regarded as the organization’s best pitching prospect and a top 50 minor league talent overall. The righty draws unanimous praise for an upper-90s fastball, a pair of power breaking pitches, and an advanced changeup. Miller’s command is still a work in progress but there’s little question the arsenal can play against major league hitters.
Miller doesn’t figure to be an option for the season-opening rotation. Roberts told reporters last week he was being built up slowly to monitor his workload and was unlikely to pitch in a Spring Training game (relayed by Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). He’ll almost certainly be in the majors at some point in 2023 though.
Further Down Depth Chart
Andre Jackson, 26, one option remaining
Jackson has never started a big league game, coming out of the bullpen for all seven of his MLB appearances from 2021-22. The Utah product has worked as a starter in the minors, opening 19 of 21 outings with Oklahoma City last year. He allowed exactly five earned runs per nine innings in Triple-A. Jackson had decent enough strikeout and ground-ball numbers but walked an astronomical 17.2% of opposing hitters.
That’d put him behind Pepiot and Grove on the depth chart. Jackson is on the 40-man roster, though, seemingly giving him a leg up compared to the non-roster invitees in camp. He’s headed into what would be his final option year, so he’ll need to improve his control before long if he’s to earn an extended MLB look in Los Angeles.
Both Covey and Erlin have some big league experience and are in camp as non-roster veterans. The 32-year-old Erlin was hit hard in 77 innings with Oklahoma City last season. Covey, 31, returned stateside after a couple solid years in Taiwan’s top league. Covey, in particular, has gotten out to a good start in camp. He’s struck out eight without issuing a walk over six innings. Still, neither seems likely to leapfrog the younger arms in the organization for a season-opening rotation look.
Nastrini and Knack are both fairly recent college draftees who reached Double-A last season. They’re each among the mid-tier prospects in a strong L.A. system and flashed bat-missing potential with Tulsa. Both pitchers could eventually get an MLB look, though neither figures to be in consideration for a job out of camp. They’re not yet on the 40-man and have yet to reach Triple-A.
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The Dodgers again have a few exciting pitching prospects, two of whom have already gotten a taste of the majors. Pepiot and Grove would accordingly be the safest choices to take the final rotation spot if Gonsolin can’t start the season but they’re not as touted as Miller and Stone. The latter two figure to take the Dodger Stadium mound at some point in 2023, the next in a long line of pitching talent to come through the system.
Big Hype Prospects: Baty, Miller, Dominguez, Cowser, Wiemer
This week on Big Hype Prospects, we’ll look at more prospects who could find themselves on the move in the next few days. Check out last week’s Juan Soto Edition of Big Hype Prospects for more deadline trade candidates.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Brett Baty, 22, 3B, NYM (AA)
350 PA, 14 HR, 1 SB, .303/.394/.507
The Mets are reportedly trying very hard to hang onto Francisco Alvarez and Baty. To accomplish all of their deadline trade goals, they might not be able to cling to both. Alvarez being the scarcer and flashier talent, I figure he’s less likely to be traded outside of a Juan Soto or Shohei Ohtani deal. Baty, however, would fit in a swap for any of the next tier of trade targets. Names like Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas, or Sean Murphy.
Baty is having a fine season after a bit of a slow start. His performance suggests a readiness for the next challenge. When I see a prospect of this caliber promoted slowly, it leads me to wonder if he’s been held down to ensure his trade value doesn’t take a hit from an untimely slump. Baty makes a ton of hard, low-angle contact. Despite a 26 percent strikeout rate, he regularly hits for a high batting average. He makes the most of his rare air-ball contact thanks to an over 20 percent HR/FB ratio. His batted ball profile reminds me of a slightly better Ryan McMahon.
Bobby Miller, 23, SP, LAD (AA)
76.1 IP, 11.20 K/9, 3.30 BB/9, 4.36 ERA
Miller receives plenty of attention for his triple-digit velocity heater, but his results don’t always match the raw stuff. This season, his ERA is a full point higher than his FIP. In the past, we would have shrugged and assumed better days awaited. Unfortunately, it seems his fastball shape and middling command are the culprits. Both issues, should they remain, will only intensify once he reaches the Majors. They could prevent him from realizing his full potential. While some kind of rotation role is likely with a floor as an elite reliever, now could represent a good time for the Dodgers to sell Miller. Some clubs might believe they can fix him.
If the worst outcomes are reminiscent of Sixto Sanchez or Hunter Greene, that’s not a bad thing. Sanchez, you might recall, was dealt for multiple seasons of J.T. Realmuto (the Phillies also included Jorge Alfaro, Will Stewart, and an international bonus slot in the deal). Miller might not be quite as beloved as Sanchez was at the time. His plus command helped assuage doubts about a modest strikeout rate. Still, that implies the Dodgers can expect to add a substantial player if they part with Miller.
Jasson Dominguez, 19, OF, NYY (A+)
(A) 423 PA, 9 HR, 19 SB, .265/.373/.440
(A+) 27 PA, 1 HR, 2 SB, .292/.370/.500
Dominguez is best-known for having the physique of a mid-20s body builder as a 17-year-old. Now 19, the developmentally mature teenager recently earned a promotion to High-A where he’s one of the youngest players on hand (recently promoted Jackson Chourio is the youngest player at the level). Reports heading into this season were mixed with some notes emphasizing his physicality as potentially detrimental. He’s put those concerns to rest while display above average plate discipline with plenty of blistering contact. Presently, he makes a lot of hard, low-angle, pulled contact. He has time to make adjustments to unlock either a more balanced or more power-centric approach.
Dominguez comes with substantial bust risk so any acquiring team should make sure they feel confident about their development staff.
Colton Cowser, 22, OF, BAL (AA)
(A+) 278 PA, 4 HR, 16 SB, .258/.385/.410
(AA) 98 PA, 7 HR, 1 SB, .324/.480/.689
Cowser is a personal favorite of mine. He has fantastic discipline, a better-than-average swinging strike rate, and a batted ball profile maxed out for high BABIPs. In short, he is the ideal leadoff hitter. His game is a little bit like Alek Thomas – if the DBacks outfielder took a lot more pitches. While an adjustment isn’t strictly necessary, Cowser could probably stand to swing more often. Adding in a little bit loft wouldn’t hurt either. There are a lot of directions this profile can go, and most of them yield some type of really useful ballplayer. To reach a superstar ceiling, he’ll have to take bold risks regarding his approach and mechanics.
Depending on who you talk to, Cowser is the Orioles third- or fourth-best prospect. With their surprise contention, the front office is undoubtedly kicking around ideas. From the perspective of continued employment, it’s safer for Mike Elias to stay the course. If they do spend prospects on reinforcements, they’ll likely either be from the bargain bin or club-controlled for a long period. In the latter scenario, some of their better names like Cowser, Coby Mayo, and Jordan Westburg will need to be in play.
Joey Wiemer, 23, OF, MIL (AA)
364 PA, 15 HR, 24 SB, .243/.321/.446
Wiemer has the look and the size of the notable prospect. At times, he puts up video game numbers as he did in High-A last season. Opinions are divided. Some scouts I spoke with last fall weren’t enamored with his playing style, believing he’d fade into a role player as he advanced through the system. Unaffiliated scouts who are plugged more into the fantasy baseball scene love his combination of power and aggression on the basepaths.
As reported earlier today, the Brewers are looking for mid-tier upgrades like Ramon Laureano. While the club would undoubtedly prefer to hold onto one of their few top prospects, they have one of the weaker farm systems behind Chourio. Their list of attractive trade assets might not extend much beyond Wiemer, Sal Frelick, and Ethan Small.
Five More
Kyle Harrison, SFG (20): In his latest outing – his first appearance since July 8 – Harrison fanned nine of 10 batters faced. It was a masterful performance. The soon-to-be 21-year-old is ready for the next challenge.
Oswald Peraza, NYY (22): With the Yankees eyeballing a late-October run, one of their young shortstops is probably going to wind up joining another club. While Peraza isn’t as impressive as Anthony Volpe, he still profiles as a future above average shortstop. He’s hit 13 home runs with 24 steals and a .258/.329/.446 triple-slash in 319 Triple-A plate appearances.
Royce Lewis, MIN (23): Lewis showed signs of a breakout in the spring of 2021 before missing the entire season. Then, after showing well in Triple-A and a 41 plate appearance stint in the Majors, he again suffered a season-ending injury. The Twins undoubtedly don’t want to sell Lewis. They stuck it out with Byron Buxton so it’s not as if they’re averse to players with the “injury prone” label. If they’re thirsty enough, he’s a highly valuable prospect who happens to be incapable of helping them contend this season.
Michael Busch, LAD (24): A Busch trade is beginning to feel inevitable. The oldest player featured today, Busch is having a decent but unspectacular campaign at Triple-A. He’s on a tear this month, batting .310/.384/.529 in July (125 wRC+). Since he looks like someone who might need awhile to adjust in the Majors, the Dodgers might prefer to skip that portion of his development by cashing out.
Ricky Tiedemann, TOR, (19): A youthful southpaw who has chewed through the competition, Tiedemann might just be the Blue Jays most sellable prospect. He has a bright and promising future after already succeeding in High-A as a teenager. However, TINSTAAPP applies, and the Jays current contention window may well be closed by the time Tiedemann is big league ready.